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Kevin Durant and Hardy Nickerson

Kevin Durant made headlines this week by announcing that he was leaving Oklahoma City and joining the Golden State Warriors. Durant is one of the best players in the NBA, and chose to join the team that just set the single-season record for NBA wins. Which made me wonder: who is the most Durant-like player in NFL history? This would be akin to say, LaDainian Tomlinson joining the 2008 Patriots.

But that, of course, didn’t happen. Which means there is no perfect example. The best one I could find, by the numbers (more on this in a minute), is a wholly unsatisfying one: Hardy Nickerson joining the 2000 Jaguars. Yes, you surely remember that sexy tale of intrastate drama: Nickerson, at age 34, made his fourth straight Pro Bowl in 1999. The voters had Ray Lewis (first-team All-Pro by just about everyone) as the best inside linebacker in football, but Nickerson joined Junior Seau and Zach Thomas in picking up the rest of the awards (Nickerson was a 2nd-team Associated Press choice, a 1st-team Football Digest and USA Today Choice, and was the NFC first-team choice by Pro Football Weekly). The Bucs had a dominant defense, and Nickerson therefore picked up 17 points of AV.

That year, the Jaguars went an NFL-best 14-2. So Nickerson, one of the best players in football, joined the best team in football. That’s the Durant-like quality to his move, even if he’s a DINO (Durant In Name only). I looked at every player to change teams from 1960 to 2015, and measured their AV in the previous season and their new team’s wins from the previous season. I graphed that below, with wins on the X-Axis and AV on the Y-Axis.  Nickerson, who joined a 14-win team and had an AV of 17, is in a red dot: he stands out the most of any player on here, I think.

nickerson durant

What other players are on the outer hull, or are Pareto efficient?

  • With an AV of 20, Lydell Mitchell checks in as the player with the highest AV to switch teams.  His only knock from being more Durant-like was that he joined a San Diego team that had gone .500 in the year before.
  • To beat Mitchell, you need to find a player who joined a better team. At the 19-AV, 10-Win mark, we get…. DeMarco Murray joining the 2015 Eagles!
  • To beat Murray, you gotta swim further upstream in the wins department.  With AVs of 18 and joining 12-win teams, you get Adalius Thomas (joining the 2007 Patriots) and Kevin Greene (1997 49ers).
  • No player with an AV of 18 joined a 13-win team, so Nickerson is the next member of our outer hull. The last would be Cowboys wide receiver Ron Sellers, who joined the 1973 Dolphins.

Other notable players: Charlie Garner (AV of 17, team wins of 12) joining the 2001 Raiders; Mike Haynes (14; 14.22) joining the 1983 Raiders; Wes Welker (15; 13) joining the 2013 Broncos; Deion Sanders  — twice — joining Washington in 2000 (18; 10) and more famously, Dallas in 1995 (14; 12).  And no, I have no idea how Deion’s AV was 18 in 1999 and just 14 in 1994. Wilber Marshall (18/10; 1993 Oilers), Winfred Tubbs (14/13; 1998 49ers), Ted Hendricks (13/13.7; 1975 Raiders), and Chuck Muncie (15/12; 1980 Chargers, albeit in midseason) also stand out.

There are some flaws with this data, of course.  Someone like Darrelle Revis joining the 2014 Patriots is omitted: The Patriots went 12-4 in 2013, but Revis had an AV of just 7 that year in Tampa Bay.  Deion is probably the best example, when he joined the ’95 Cowboys, and Ken Norton going the other direction the year before is a good one, too.  Statistically, Marshall Faulk was clearly the most dominant veteran to switch teams and win a Super Bowl, but he joined a terrible team.

What players stand out to you?

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