Nine years ago, at the old PFR Blog, I wrote an article that suggested that Jason Witten would join the Hall of Fame in the Class of 2024. That may be particularly prescient, as Witten just retired, making him eligible to make the Hall of Fame beginning in the Class of ’23.
The main reason I figured Witten would make it to Canton? Through age 26 (the 2008 season), he had more receptions and receiving yards than any other tight end, and he was showing no signs of slowing down.
Well, he didn’t slow down. Two years ago, following the 2015 season, I updated that post.
Today? I wanted to provide another quick update. Jason Witten completed his age 33 season in 2015. And here’s the killer stat: nobody in NFL history has more receptions through their age 33 season than Jason Witten.
Larry Fitzgerald (who, like Witten, entered the NFL at 21, was productive as a rookie and a Pro Bowler at 22) is a year younger than Witten and has passed him on the “receptions through age 33” list. But that’s Larry Fitzgerald, who not only is a future Hall of Famer but also a wide receiver. Witten didn’t slow down much the last two years, either: he ranks 2nd all-time behind Fitzgerald in receptions through age 35.
Witten ranks 4th all-time in receptions, and has had a remarkable 14 seasons with 60+ receptions. But Witten wasn’t just a receptions machine or a guy who pieced together solid seasons: he was a Pro Bowl caliber player for a decade. From ’04 to ’13, Witten ranked in the top 7 in receiving yards among tight ends in each season, with five top-2 finishes (two #1s, and three #2s behind Tony Gonzalez each season) and three more top-5 finishes. He wasn’t Gonzalez good, and he certainly can’t match the peak of Rob Gronkowski, but Witten was really good for a really long time, and that’s a formula that will always get a player into Canton.
Consider: there are 13 other players who, like Witten, have made exactly 11 Pro Bowls. All 13 are or will be in the Hall of Fame. Of that group, 9 made it on their first ballot, a 10th will do the same in Drew Brees, and Fitzgerald might be the 11th. The other two? Tackle Willie Roaf, who waited one year, and Guard Tom Mack, who made it in his final year of eligibility after a 16-year wait.
Witten won’t have to wait that long, and my hunch is that he will in fact be a first ballot Hall of Famer, the second at the position after Gonzalez in the Class of 2019). Let’s close with these three facts:
Witten gained 1,446 receiving yards against the Redskins, the most of any opposing player.
Witten gained 1,568 receiving yards against the Giants, the most of any opposing player.
Witten gained 1,642 receiving yards against the Eagles, the most of any opposing player.
Among Cowboys fans, Witten will have no shortage of supporters. But fans of NFC East rivals will be more than happy to see Witten in Canton, rather than on the field.