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Jared Goff, John Brodie, and The Biggest ANY/A Increases

Last season, Jared Goff produced one of the worst rookie seasons in recent history. He ranked dead last in ANY/A, over a 1.5 adjusted net yards per attempt behind every other qualifying passer. Well, this year, through three games, Goff ranks first in the NFL in ANY/A.

It’s really early, but Goff’s performance made me wonder what was the biggest increase in ANY/A year over year in football history (minimum 200 attempts both seasons). In the pre-merger era, the answer is John Brodie (although we are really using AY/A here because we don’t have sack data). He averaged 3.99 AY/A in 1960 and 8.23 AY/A in 1961, representing an increase of 4.24. In the post-merger era, it’s Nick Foles at the top, thanks to his remarkable 2013 season. The table below shows the top 100 year-over-year increases:

RkQuarterbackYearsTeamsYr N-1 ANY/AYr N ANY/ADiff
1John Brodie1960--1961sfo--sfo3.998.234.24
2Nick Foles2012--2013phi--phi5.139.184.05
3Otto Graham1952--1953cle--cle5.879.833.97
4Drew Brees2003--2004sdg--sdg3.917.783.87
5Boomer Esiason1992--1993cin--nyj2.706.333.63
6Ken Anderson1980--1981cin--cin3.817.433.62
7Charlie Conerly1953--1954nyg--nyg2.796.113.32
8Josh Freeman2009--2010tam--tam3.696.943.26
9George Blanda1960--1961oti--oti5.248.453.21
10Ken Stabler1975--1976rai--rai4.287.453.17
11Steve DeBerg1978--1979sfo--sfo1.834.923.09
12John Hadl1972--1973sdg--ram3.586.643.07
13Tom Flores1965--1966rai--rai5.128.133.01
14Ed Brown1958--1959chi--chi3.916.852.93
15Tom Brady2006--2007nwe--nwe6.088.882.80
16Milt Plum1959--1960cle--cle7.199.972.78
17Jake Plummer2002--2003crd--den3.866.632.77
18Scott Mitchell1994--1995det--det4.266.992.74
19Brett Favre2008--2009nyj--min4.917.612.70
20Bert Jones1974--1975clt--clt2.955.652.70
21Matt Ryan2015--2016atl--atl6.359.032.68
22Billy Kilmer1970--1971nor--was2.965.552.59
23Brian Griese1999--2000den--den5.237.792.56
24Norm Snead1961--1962was--was4.186.712.53
25Tommy Kramer1985--1986min--min4.547.082.53
26Vinny Testaverde1997--1998rav--nyj5.167.682.53
27Norm Snead1966--1967phi--phi4.166.682.52
28Donovan McNabb2003--2004phi--phi5.357.872.52
29Len Dawson1967--1968kan--kan6.639.132.50
30Dan Pastorini1973--1974oti--oti1.584.062.48
31Don Meredith1964--1965dal--dal4.967.442.48
32Jack Trudeau1986--1987clt--clt3.055.522.47
33Peyton Manning2003--2004clt--clt7.359.782.43
34John Elway1992--1993den--den3.996.422.43
35Craig Morton1976--1977nyg--den2.665.092.43
36Len Dawson1965--1966kan--kan6.739.142.42
37Andy Dalton2014--2015cin--cin5.758.172.41
38John Brodie1964--1965sfo--sfo5.257.652.40
39Randall Cunningham1986--1987phi--phi2.665.062.40
40Matt Cassel2009--2010kan--kan4.266.642.37
41Tobin Rote1950--1951gnb--gnb1.303.672.37
42Donovan McNabb1999--2000phi--phi2.414.792.37
43Philip Rivers2007--2008sdg--sdg5.678.042.37
44Chad Pennington2007--2008nyj--mia4.837.192.36
45Philip Rivers2012--2013sdg--sdg5.457.792.34
46Frankie Albert1947--1948sfo--sfo5.698.032.34
47Mark Rypien1990--1991was--was6.018.342.33
48Steve Bartkowski1979--1980atl--atl3.966.272.31
49Carson Palmer2004--2005cin--cin4.967.262.29
50Blake Bortles2014--2015jax--jax3.816.092.28
51Archie Manning1977--1978nor--nor3.125.382.27
52Boomer Esiason1987--1988cin--cin5.537.792.26
53John Brodie1969--1970sfo--sfo5.287.522.25
54Drew Brees2010--2011nor--nor6.018.232.22
55Peyton Manning1998--1999clt--clt4.847.062.22
56David Garrard2006--2007jax--jax5.417.622.21
57Terry Bradshaw1970--1971pit--pit0.863.062.20
58Roman Gabriel1966--1967ram--ram5.097.262.17
59Joe Flacco2013--2014rav--rav4.506.662.17
60Josh McCown2014--2015tam--cle4.306.452.15
61Jim Ninowski1960--1961det--det2.935.062.14
62Bert Jones1975--1976clt--clt5.657.782.13
63Joe Montana1988--1989sfo--sfo6.198.312.12
64Eli Manning2013--2014nyg--nyg4.556.672.12
65Mark Brunell2004--2005was--was3.815.922.11
66Frank Tripucka1961--1962den--den2.754.852.10
67George Blanda1962--1963oti--oti3.495.572.08
68Don Meredith1967--1968dal--dal5.627.702.08
69Pete Liske1970--1971den--phi2.854.852.01
70Johnny Unitas1962--1963clt--clt6.158.152.00
71Jim Everett1993--1994ram--nor3.935.921.99
72Ken O'Brien1984--1985nyj--nyj4.626.601.98
73Brett Favre2006--2007gnb--gnb5.217.181.97
74Trent Green2001--2002kan--kan5.067.021.96
75Bob Griese1970--1971mia--mia4.396.351.96
76Jim Plunkett1972--1973nwe--nwe2.154.101.96
77Norm Van Brocklin1958--1959phi--phi4.846.791.95
78Bernie Kosar1990--1991cle--cle4.066.001.94
79Troy Aikman1990--1991dal--dal3.885.821.94
80John Elway1983--1984den--den3.335.261.93
81Jim Harbaugh1993--1994chi--clt3.905.841.93
82Matt Hasselbeck2001--2002sea--sea4.326.251.93
83Ben Roethlisberger2008--2009pit--pit5.217.121.91
84Steve DeBerg1989--1990kan--kan5.677.581.91
85Otto Graham1948--1949cle--cle7.629.531.90
86Steve McNair2002--2003oti--oti5.917.811.90
87Joe Ferguson1974--1975buf--buf3.995.891.90
88Aaron Rodgers2010--2011gnb--gnb7.509.391.90
89John Brodie1967--1968sfo--sfo4.346.231.89
90Troy Aikman1997--1998dal--dal5.187.061.88
91Marc Wilson1986--1987rai--rai3.865.731.86
92Steve Fuller1979--1980kan--kan2.384.231.86
93Tobin Rote1955--1956gnb--gnb4.276.131.86
94Ken Stabler1978--1979rai--rai3.545.381.84
95Brian Sipe1979--1980cle--cle4.916.731.83
96Andrew Luck2015--2016clt--clt5.046.841.80
97Jeff Garcia1999--2000sfo--sfo5.557.341.79
98Craig Erickson1993--1994tam--tam4.546.321.78
99Daunte Culpepper2002--2003min--min4.926.701.77
100David Archer1985--1986atl--atl2.974.731.76

What stands out to you? Goff needs to average 7.07 ANY/A this year to set the record. Will he do it?

  • Josh Sanford

    I would bet no, if I had to bet.

  • McGeorge

    Given that Goff played for Jeff Fisher , and didn’t have good receivers, it’s not surprising that he’s done better this year.
    I’ll withhold judgment until the end of this year, and even next year.
    Goff and Wentz are still works in progress.

  • Joseph

    I notice that John Brodie appears 4 times here, including the top spot. This lends credence to the common perception that Brodie was an up and down player for his career. Tremendous natural talent — apparently a pro-level golfer as well — but the knock against him was that he rattled under pressure, which led to the high number of interceptions at critical moments. There was a magazine called Pro Quarterback that used to feature annual ratings of the QBs on passing ability, leadership, etc., and Brodie was generally below the elite rank. Jurgensen and Namath typically topped the ratings, in the judgments of pro scouts (for some reason they weren’t bothered much by Joe Willie’s low completion percentage or the intercepts — they simply loved the arm, the quick drop back and rapid release).

  • Deacon Drake

    McVay seems to get this kind of performance from his offense. Cousins was posting ~7 ANY/A the last two years, and would expect Goff to finish there as well. Creative use of Gurley and Austin give him some free low risk yards.