Jameis Winston entered the NFL as a 21-year-old in 2015. Now, midway through his fourth season, Winston still has a number of rookie struggles. He currently has a 6.8% interception rate in 2018, bringing his career interception rate up to 3.2%. Among the 39 passers with 500 attempts since 2015, Winston has the worst interception rate in the NFL.
On the other hand, interceptions are not a very sticky statistic, and a pretty poor way of evaluating quarterback play. Winston is an aggressive passer who has played on bad teams, so that tends to lead to interceptions. And young quarterbacks — Winston is still just 24 — sometimes struggle with interceptions, especially on bad teams.
Meanwhile, Winston has been downright remarkable at picking up first downs. Including sacks, Winston has picked up a first down on 37.3% of his dropbacks since entering the league; that’s the 2nd-best rate in the NFL over that span. Last year, he led the league in percentage of pass attempts that went for a first down; this year he’s been even better (although he only ranks 3rd). Including sacks, he has still picked up a first down on 40% of his dropbacks.
Since 2015, Winston ranks 1st in INT rate and 2nd in Passing First Down rate. No other player ranks in the top 9 in both, although Roethlisberger, Newton, and Fitzpatrick rank in the top 12 in both stats.
| Player | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Sk | Yds | 1D | 1D Rate% | 1D Rate Rk | INT % | INT Rk | ANY/A | ANY/A Rk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 1938 | 15957 | 94 | 37 | 111 | -732 | 779 | 38% | 1 | 1.9% | 27 | 7.54 | 3 |
| Jameis Winston | 1694 | 12840 | 75 | 54 | 109 | -716 | 673 | 37.3% | 2 | 3.2% | 1 | 6.21 | 19 |
| Carson Palmer | 1402 | 10872 | 70 | 32 | 87 | -591 | 549 | 36.9% | 3 | 2.3% | 18 | 6.88 | 9 |
| Drew Brees | 2078 | 16409 | 106 | 35 | 87 | -627 | 795 | 36.7% | 4 | 1.7% | 31 | 7.54 | 2 |
| Tom Brady | 1887 | 14770 | 112 | 24 | 96 | -566 | 720 | 36.3% | 5 | 1.3% | 38 | 7.75 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1830 | 14129 | 90 | 49 | 68 | -486 | 677 | 35.7% | 6 | 2.7% | 11 | 6.97 | 7 |
| Philip Rivers | 2033 | 15701 | 107 | 47 | 103 | -658 | 754 | 35.3% | 7 | 2.3% | 16 | 7.05 | 4 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2030 | 15722 | 97 | 40 | 113 | -854 | 756 | 35.3% | 8 | 2% | 24 | 7 | 5 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2004 | 14940 | 99 | 39 | 141 | -869 | 756 | 35.2% | 9 | 1.9% | 25 | 6.66 | 12 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1272 | 9267 | 64 | 40 | 53 | -270 | 459 | 34.6% | 10 | 3.1% | 2 | 6.4 | 16 |
| Cam Newton | 1736 | 12289 | 89 | 44 | 114 | -867 | 632 | 34.2% | 11 | 2.5% | 12 | 6.07 | 21 |
| Jared Goff | 936 | 7308 | 50 | 19 | 69 | -496 | 343 | 34.1% | 12 | 2% | 22 | 6.92 | 8 |
| Andy Dalton | 1735 | 12825 | 85 | 35 | 116 | -774 | 628 | 33.9% | 13 | 2% | 23 | 6.58 | 13 |
| Russell Wilson | 1763 | 13770 | 105 | 34 | 149 | -999 | 644 | 33.7% | 14 | 1.9% | 26 | 6.98 | 6 |
| Dak Prescott | 1151 | 8367 | 53 | 21 | 80 | -470 | 413 | 33.5% | 15 | 1.8% | 29 | 6.51 | 15 |
| Andrew Luck | 1180 | 8294 | 69 | 33 | 66 | -434 | 418 | 33.5% | 16 | 2.8% | 6 | 6.22 | 18 |
| Blake Bortles | 2047 | 14038 | 89 | 55 | 126 | -736 | 723 | 33.3% | 17 | 2.7% | 10 | 5.8 | 30 |
| Carson Wentz | 1272 | 8858 | 62 | 23 | 82 | -523 | 448 | 33.1% | 18 | 1.8% | 30 | 6.31 | 17 |
| Alex Smith | 1683 | 12526 | 69 | 22 | 120 | -665 | 596 | 33.1% | 19 | 1.3% | 36 | 6.79 | 10 |
| Marcus Mariota | 1424 | 10520 | 61 | 39 | 108 | -695 | 505 | 33% | 20 | 2.7% | 8 | 6.06 | 22 |
| Case Keenum | 1217 | 8684 | 45 | 29 | 71 | -493 | 421 | 32.7% | 21 | 2.4% | 13 | 6.05 | 23 |
| Brian Hoyer | 780 | 5338 | 29 | 11 | 45 | -309 | 269 | 32.6% | 22 | 1.4% | 33 | 6.2 | 20 |
| Derek Carr | 1909 | 13470 | 92 | 40 | 85 | -518 | 643 | 32.2% | 23 | 2.1% | 21 | 6.52 | 14 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1704 | 12235 | 100 | 22 | 125 | -903 | 586 | 32% | 24 | 1.3% | 37 | 6.75 | 11 |
| Jay Cutler | 1049 | 7384 | 44 | 30 | 66 | -405 | 357 | 32% | 25 | 2.9% | 5 | 5.84 | 29 |
| Sam Bradford | 1206 | 8378 | 44 | 23 | 76 | -562 | 403 | 31.4% | 26 | 1.9% | 28 | 5.98 | 26 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1101 | 8170 | 51 | 30 | 84 | -684 | 372 | 31.4% | 27 | 2.7% | 9 | 6.04 | 24 |
| Josh McCown | 855 | 6142 | 36 | 19 | 80 | -546 | 289 | 30.9% | 28 | 2.2% | 20 | 5.84 | 28 |
| Eli Manning | 2102 | 14280 | 87 | 49 | 110 | -735 | 680 | 30.7% | 29 | 2.3% | 14 | 5.91 | 27 |
| Mitch Trubisky | 568 | 3980 | 22 | 13 | 47 | -292 | 186 | 30.2% | 30 | 2.3% | 17 | 5.76 | 31 |
| Brock Osweiler | 1074 | 6922 | 36 | 30 | 66 | -476 | 342 | 30% | 31 | 2.8% | 7 | 5.1 | 36 |
| Trevor Siemian | 836 | 5701 | 30 | 24 | 64 | -412 | 269 | 29.9% | 32 | 2.9% | 4 | 5.34 | 33 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 1320 | 9293 | 53 | 18 | 136 | -757 | 431 | 29.6% | 33 | 1.4% | 34 | 6.03 | 25 |
| Joe Flacco | 1979 | 12532 | 64 | 46 | 90 | -721 | 608 | 29.4% | 34 | 2.3% | 15 | 5.33 | 34 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 658 | 4284 | 22 | 20 | 61 | -369 | 206 | 28.7% | 35 | 3% | 3 | 4.81 | 38 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 525 | 3498 | 13 | 7 | 57 | -347 | 164 | 28.2% | 36 | 1.3% | 35 | 5.32 | 35 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 575 | 3856 | 22 | 9 | 64 | -370 | 175 | 27.4% | 37 | 1.6% | 32 | 5.51 | 32 |
| Nick Foles | 575 | 3462 | 16 | 13 | 27 | -206 | 149 | 24.8% | 38 | 2.3% | 19 | 4.97 | 37 |
So, is Winston a raw prospect with a ton of potential, or an interception-prone quarterback who happens to have been good at picking up first downs? Is he a young player who has shown signs of becoming an All-Pro, or a guy who after 4 years has shown that he’s always going to be mistake-prone?
Winston’s on-the-field stock (to say nothing of his off-the-field stock) has arguably never been lower than today, after yesterday’s 4-INT performance.
Where do you stand on Winston?