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Guest Post: Adam Steele on Quarterback MVP Shares

Adam Steele is back for another guest post. You can view all of Adam’s posts here. As always, we thank him for contributing.


In this post, I will attempt to estimate how many MVP awards each QB has “deserved” over the course of his career. I wanted to accomplish this task using very basic statistics, so the only inputs are pass attempts, passing yards, and TD passes. I can’t stress enough that this is aimed at providing rough estimates and not definitive answers.

Methodology

The metric I will use for this study is my own creation, Positive Yards Per Attempt (PY/A). I chose this over ANY/A for several reasons:

  • It is available back to the early days of the NFL, whereas ANY/A only goes back to 1969; I prefer to employ a uniform measurement for players of every era.
  • Sacks (invalid) and interceptions (unstable and invalid) are poor measures of QB performance, while Y/A and TD% are both statistically valid. (Proof)
  • If I used ANY/A, a number of unworthy seasons would appear MVP caliber due to fluky INT rates (looking at you, Damon Huard).
  • MVP voters typically focus on yards, TD passes, and wins (shame on them), but largely ignore interceptions and sacks.

With my justifications out of the way, let’s get to the actual formula:

  1. PY/A = (Passing Yards + TD Passes *20) / Attempts.
  2. Each QB season is compared to league average, giving us Relative PY/A (RPY/A). At this juncture, all seasons below +1 RPY/A are discarded, as I consider that the minimum baseline for a great season.
  3. I don’t want anyone receiving MVP Shares for lighting it in limited action (Todd Collins in 2007, for example), so I added a minimum threshold for attempts in a season. From 1978-present, the minimum is 300 attempts, and from 1950-1977 the minimum is 200 attempts. I purposely did not prorate 1982 and 1987 because I don’t think MVP awards in shortened seasons should be worth as much as full seasons.
  4. I excluded the AFL and AAFC because those leagues had watered down competition, and also because I’m lazy. Seasons before 1950 are excluded for the same reasons.
  5. I want to emphasize QB’s who play all or most of a season, which is accomplished by subtracting the minimum baseline from each QB’s attempts in a season. For example, a modern QB who attempts 525 passes in a given year will have his attempts adjusted down to 225 (525-300). This ensures that a QB who plays excellently over 2/3 of a season doesn’t get too much credit, but still gets some (such as Kurt Warner in 2000).
  6. RPY/A is multiplied by adjusted pass attempts to calculate MVP Value.
  7. League MVP Value is summed in each season, and each quarterback’s MVP Value is divided by the league total. This is his MVP Share. The divisor is capped at 500 and floored at 200, which results in some seasons producing more or less than one MVP Share. This last modifier was necessary due to vast discrepancies in yearly MVP Value totals, as I don’t want historically great seasons penalized too much for occurring within a loaded field (such as 2011 or 1976). The 68 seasons from 1950-2017 produced a grand total of 60.2 MVP Shares, which feels quite reasonable (we can pretend the other 7.8 MVP awards went to non-quarterbacks).

Here are the top 100 MVP Share seasons since 1950:

QuarterbackYearTeamAttYardsTDPY/ALgPY/ARPY/AMVPValMVPShare
Steve Young1994SFO46139693510.137.542.59256.01.00
Dan Marino1984MIA56450844810.727.972.75462.00.92
Steve Young1993SFO4624023299.967.402.56252.70.90
Peyton Manning2004IND49745574911.147.943.20433.40.87
Matt Ryan2016ATL53449443810.688.012.67390.80.85
Aaron Rodgers2011GNB50246434511.048.052.99402.00.80
Kurt Warner2001STL54648303610.167.542.62398.50.80
Boomer Esiason1988CIN38835722810.657.702.95171.60.77
Lynn Dickey1983GNB48444583210.538.042.49274.20.76
Y.A. Tittle1963NYG36731453610.538.621.9161.00.31
Tom Brady2007NWE57848065010.047.692.35375.30.75
Earl Morrall1968BAL31729092610.828.032.7930.40.11
Joe Namath1972NYJ3242816199.867.692.1728.10.14
Kurt Warner1999STL49943534110.377.542.83364.20.73
Peyton Manning2013DEN6595477559.988.001.98351.80.70
Brett Favre1995GNB5704413389.087.561.52140.40.70
Johnny Unitas1964BAL30528241910.508.182.326.60.03
Fran Tarkenton1967NYG3773088299.737.911.8263.10.30
Sonny Jurgensen1961PHI41637233210.498.571.92106.70.35
Steve Young1992SFO4023465259.867.632.23125.50.63
Philip Rivers2008SDG4784009349.817.722.09194.00.59
Ken Anderson1975CIN3773169219.527.522.0077.00.25
Bert Jones1976BAL34331042410.457.443.0186.40.17
Craig Morton1969DAL30226192110.067.962.102.20.01
Norm Van Brocklin1954RAM26026371311.148.292.85-74.0-0.37
Dan Fouts1985SDG4303638279.727.861.86111.80.56
Daunte Culpepper2004MIN54847173910.037.942.09270.30.54
Carson Palmer2015ARI53746713510.008.171.83196.70.54
Roger Staubach1973DAL28624282310.107.422.68-23.5-0.09
Ken Stabler1976OAK29127372711.267.443.82-25.4-0.05
Tom Brady2011NWE6115235399.848.051.79245.70.49
Drew Brees2011NOR6575476469.748.051.69246.30.49
Jim Kelly1991BUF4743844339.507.611.89154.90.49
Philip Rivers2010SDG5414710309.827.871.95229.00.48
Joe Montana1989SFO38635212610.477.952.52130.70.48
Boomer Esiason1986CIN4693959249.467.781.68114.90.47
Aaron Rodgers2014GNB5204381389.898.101.79173.80.47
Mark Rypien1991WAS4213564289.807.612.19144.00.45
Drew Brees2009NOR5144388349.867.812.05224.70.45
Peyton Manning2005IND4533747289.517.561.95145.40.45
Warren Moon1990HOU5844689339.167.841.3290.90.45
Terry Bradshaw1977PIT3142523179.127.281.8411.80.05
Johnny Unitas1965BAL28225302310.608.532.07-19.3-0.10
Vinny Testaverde1996BAL5494177338.817.461.3587.20.44
John Brodie1970SFO3782941249.057.561.4938.20.19
Brett Favre1997GNB5133867358.907.461.4493.70.43
Norm Van Brocklin1960PHI28424712410.398.242.15-18.4-0.08
Daunte Culpepper2000MIN4743937339.707.522.18205.30.41
Philip Rivers2009SDG4864254289.917.812.10204.60.41
Randall Cunningham1998MIN42537043410.327.692.63203.80.41
Jim Everett1989RAM5184310299.447.951.49106.80.39
Ken Stabler1974OAK3102469269.647.242.4014.00.03
Peyton Manning2012DEN5834659379.267.921.3496.20.38
Trent Green2002KAN4703690268.967.511.4576.50.38
Peyton Manning2006IND5574397319.017.641.3795.10.36
Tony Romo2014DAL43537053410.088.101.98132.30.36
Otto Graham1953CLE25827221111.407.473.93-123.1-0.26
Tony Romo2007DAL5204211369.487.691.79173.80.35
Milt Plum1960CLE25022972110.878.242.63-81.5-0.35
Drew Brees2008NOR6355069349.057.721.33110.60.34
Don Meredith1966DAL3442805249.557.811.7432.60.10
Johnny Unitas1957BAL30125502410.078.401.670.70.00
Y.A. Tittle1962NYG37532243310.368.981.3828.50.14
Steve Young1998SFO5174170369.467.691.77167.10.33
Dan Marino1986MIA6234746449.037.781.2580.80.33
Steve McNair2003TEN4003215249.247.421.8282.00.32
Terry Bradshaw1978PIT3682915289.447.501.9463.90.32
Ben Roethlisberger2009PIT5064328269.587.811.77158.60.32
Ken Anderson1974CIN3282667189.237.241.9927.70.07
Len Dawson1971KAN3012504159.327.531.790.80.00
Johnny Unitas1959BAL3672899329.648.291.3523.50.12
Greg Landry1971DET2612237169.807.532.27-49.5-0.19
Craig Morton1981DEN3763195219.617.851.7657.80.29
Norm Snead1967PHI4343399299.177.911.2634.80.16
Steve Young1997SFO3563029199.587.462.1262.70.29
Frank Ryan1966CLE3822974299.307.811.4940.20.13
Russell Wilson2015SEA4834024349.748.171.57104.30.28
Aaron Rodgers2012GNB5524295399.197.921.2768.00.27
Terry Bradshaw1979PIT4723724268.997.681.3153.30.27
Vince Ferragamo1980RAM4043199309.407.881.5254.10.27
Drew Brees2006NOR5544418268.917.641.2768.60.26
Steve Beuerlein1999CAR5714436369.037.541.49132.80.27
Norm Van Brocklin1950RAM23320611810.397.792.60-107.2-0.54
Jared Goff2017RAM4773804289.157.851.3053.10.27
Steve Grogan1979NWE4233286289.097.681.4150.40.25
Dan Fouts1978SDG3812999249.137.501.6351.00.26
Otto Graham1951CLE2652205179.607.841.76-26.6-0.13
Boomer Esiason1985CIN4313443279.247.861.3849.80.25
Roger Staubach1978DAL4133190258.937.501.4348.60.24
Bob Griese1977MIA3072252228.777.281.493.40.02
Kurt Warner2000STL34734292111.097.523.57120.80.24
Aaron Rodgers2009GNB5414434309.307.811.49118.10.24
Joe Ferguson1975BUF3212426259.127.521.6012.60.04
Fran Tarkenton1964MIN3062506229.638.181.452.70.01
Billy Wade1958RAM3412875189.498.161.3313.50.07
John Hadl1973RAM2582008229.497.422.07-44.9-0.17
Roger Staubach1979DAL4613586278.957.681.2743.50.22
Norm Van Brocklin1953RAM2862393199.707.472.23-17.2-0.04
Bobby Thomason1953PHI3042462219.487.472.014.00.01
Donovan McNabb2004PHI4693875319.587.941.64108.20.22

And now the MVP Share career list (the Seasons column represents the number of different seasons each QB received more than zero MVP Shares):

QuarterbackMVPShareSeasons
Peyton Manning3.5711
Steve Young3.156
Johnny Unitas2.146
Aaron Rodgers2.005
Drew Brees1.968
Tom Brady1.927
Brett Favre1.808
Kurt Warner1.794
Philip Rivers1.684
Boomer Esiason1.504
Norm Van Brocklin1.506
Dan Fouts1.446
Y.A. Tittle1.354
Ken Stabler1.305
Dan Marino1.293
Daunte Culpepper1.163
Terry Bradshaw1.165
Roger Staubach1.135
Tony Romo1.126
Ken Anderson1.105
Fran Tarkenton1.084
Craig Morton1.024
Carson Palmer0.864
Joe Montana0.853
Matt Ryan0.851
Lynn Dickey0.812
Joe Namath0.782
Jim Kelly0.773
Sonny Jurgensen0.762
Earl Morrall0.742
Trent Green0.744
Otto Graham0.734
Bob Griese0.715
Ben Roethlisberger0.645
John Brodie0.592
Bert Jones0.571
Jim Everett0.562
Vinny Testaverde0.542
Russell Wilson0.523
Don Meredith0.502
Greg Landry0.463
Mark Rypien0.451
Warren Moon0.451
Billy Wade0.432
Randall Cunningham0.411
Steve McNair0.382
Frank Ryan0.362
Milt Plum0.351
Donovan McNabb0.333
Steve Grogan0.313
Len Dawson0.301
Norm Snead0.291
John Hadl0.282
Steve Beuerlein0.282
Chris Chandler0.274
Vince Ferragamo0.271
Jared Goff0.261
Eli Manning0.252
Jeff George0.252
Bart Starr0.242
Joe Ferguson0.241
Bobby Layne0.233
Matt Schaub0.232
Bill Nelson0.222
Bobby Thomason0.221
Chad Pennington0.201
Alex Smith0.181
George Ratterman0.171
Jake Delhomme0.171
Tommy Kramer0.171
Matt Hasselbeck0.162
Bob Berry0.142
Jay Schroeder0.141
Joe Theismann0.141
Neil Lomax0.141
Andy Dalton0.131
Ken O'Brien0.121
Rudy Bukich0.121
Jeff Garcia0.111
Ron Jaworski0.111
Carson Wentz0.101
Charley Johnson0.101
Danny White0.091
Robert Griffin0.091
Steve Bartkowski0.091
Troy Aikman0.091
Mark Brunell0.081
Wade Wilson0.071
Chris Miller0.061
Elvis Grbac0.061
Matthew Stafford0.061
Michael Vick0.061
Mike Livingston0.061
Nick Foles0.061
Billy Kilmer0.052
Brian Griese0.052
Jim Harbaugh0.051
John Elway0.051
Adrian Burk0.041
Bobby Hebert0.041
Brad Johnson0.041
Dave Krieg0.042
Marc Bulger0.041
Richard Todd0.041
Bernie Kosar0.031
Jim Hart0.031
Tommy Maddox0.031
Bob Lee0.021
David Garrard0.011
Doug Flutie0.011
Steve Spurrier0.011
Jeff Hostetler0.001

I’ll leave the commentary up to you guys!

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