First NFL Starts By Backup Quarterbacks And The Point Spread

by Chase Stuart on September 15, 2019

Minshew and Leach at Washington State

Jaguars rookie Gardner Minshew is making his first NFL start today, as Jacksonville starting quarterback Nick Foles is out with a broken left calvicle. Minshew replaced Foles in week 1 and promptly had one of the best passing performances any player has ever had in his first NFL game, at least if you don’t adjust for era. He completed 22 of 25 passes for 275 yards and 2 TDs with one interception, far exceeding how you would expect a rookie 6th round pick would perform in a season opener.

You might think this would mean Vegas would have high hopes for Minshew, who starred at Washington State under Mike Leach. Together with Minshew and his mustache, he “led the Cougars to 10 wins for the sixth time in program history.”

You might think that this would mean Vegas would be buying on Minshew today against Houston, but that’s not the case: the Jaguars are 8-point underdogs in Houston. Jason Lisk recently wrote about Minshew in the context of the point spread in games started by non-first round backup quarterbacks.

That made me wonder: what would cause a team starting a “player like Minshew” to be favored? I looked at all quarterbacks since 1978 who:

Were making their first NFL start
Were not playing in week 1 (i.e., I don’t want to include starting quarterbacks)
Were not replacement players in 1987.

As it turns out, there was one instance where a team was a 15.5-point favorite in this situation. That involved the defending Super Bowl champion Bears in 1986, with Mike Tomczak starting in a game against the Eagles. The table below shows the 313 situations from ’78 to ’18 that met the above criteria. It is fully sortable and searchable. For undrafted quarterbacks, I have put their draft pick down as 500 to make the table sort properly.

QB	Year	Week	QB Age	Tm	Opp	Boxscore	Draft Pk	Point Spread	Result
Mike Tomczak	1986	2	23.9	CHI	PHI	Boxscore	500	-15.5	W 13-10
Glenn Carano	1981	14	26.1	DAL	BAL	Boxscore	54	-13.5	W 37-13
Jason Garrett	1993	11	27.6	DAL	PHO	Boxscore	500	-12.5	W 20-15
Boomer Esiason	1984	6	23.5	CIN	HOU	Boxscore	38	-9	W 13-3
Norris Weese	1978	5	27.1	DEN	SEA	Boxscore	99	-9	W 28-7
Damon Huard	1999	7	26.3	MIA	PHI	Boxscore	500	-9	W 16-13
Jay Fiedler	1999	17	28	JAX	CIN	Boxscore	500	-9	W 24-7
Dan McGwire	1991	5	23.8	SEA	IND	Boxscore	16	-8	W 31-3
Rich Gannon	1990	4	24.8	MIN	TAM	Boxscore	98	-8	L 20-23
Scott Mitchell	1993	8	25.8	MIA	IND	Boxscore	93	-7.5	W 41-27
Vince Ferragamo	1979	12	25.6	RAM	ATL	Boxscore	91	-7	W 20-14
David Woodley	1980	4	21.9	MIA	NOR	Boxscore	214	-7	W 21-16
Jim Everett	1986	12	23.9	RAM	NOR	Boxscore	3	-6.5	W 26-13
Cade McNown	1999	6	22.8	CHI	PHI	Boxscore	12	-6.5	L 16-20
Lamar Jackson	2018	11	21.9	BAL	CIN	Boxscore	32	-6.5	W 24-21
Stan Humphries	1990	4	25.5	WAS	PHO	Boxscore	159	-6.5	W 38-10
Michael Vick	2001	9	21.4	ATL	DAL	Boxscore	1	-6	W 20-13
Dan Marino	1983	6	22.1	MIA	BUF	Boxscore	27	-6	L 35-38
Matt Cavanaugh	1980	12	24.1	NWE	BAL	Boxscore	50	-6	W 47-21
Danny White	1978	16	26.9	DAL	NYJ	Boxscore	53	-6	W 30-7
Eric Hipple	1981	7	24.1	DET	CHI	Boxscore	85	-6	W 48-17
A.J. McCarron	2015	15	25.3	CIN	SFO	Boxscore	164	-5.5	W 24-14
Scott Campbell	1985	12	23.6	PIT	WAS	Boxscore	191	-5.5	L 23-30
Steve Matthews	1997	2	26.9	JAX	NYG	Boxscore	199	-5.5	W 40-13
Steve McNair	1995	16	22.8	HOU	NYJ	Boxscore	3	-5	W 23-6
Jim Druckenmiller	1997	2	25	SFO	STL	Boxscore	26	-5	W 15-12
Colin Kaepernick	2012	11	25	SFO	CHI	Boxscore	36	-5	W 32-7
Gifford Nielsen	1979	3	24.9	HOU	KAN	Boxscore	73	-5	W 20-6
Billy Volek	2003	15	27.6	TEN	BUF	Boxscore	500	-5	W 28-26
Ken O'Brien	1984	12	24	NYJ	HOU	Boxscore	24	-4.5	L 20-31
Todd Collins	1995	17	24.1	BUF	HOU	Boxscore	45	-4.5	L 17-28
Kelly Stouffer	1988	5	24.2	SEA	ATL	Boxscore	6	-4	W 31-20
Jay Cutler	2006	13	23.6	DEN	SEA	Boxscore	11	-4	L 20-23
Marc Wilson	1981	7	24.7	OAK	TAM	Boxscore	15	-4	W 18-16
Gale Gilbert	1986	9	24.9	SEA	NYJ	Boxscore	500	-4	L 7-38
Jamie Martin	1998	15	28.8	JAX	TEN	Boxscore	500	-4	L 13-16
Paxton Lynch	2016	5	22.7	DEN	ATL	Boxscore	26	-3.5	L 16-23
Marques Tuiasosopo	2003	9	24.6	OAK	DET	Boxscore	59	-3.5	L 13-23
Neil O'Donnell	1991	8	25.3	PIT	SEA	Boxscore	70	-3.5	L 7-27
Rusty Lisch	1984	15	28	CHI	GNB	Boxscore	89	-3.5	L 14-20
Mark Rypien	1988	4	26	WAS	PHO	Boxscore	146	-3.5	L 21-30
Drew Henson	2004	12	24.8	DAL	CHI	Boxscore	192	-3.5	W 21-7
Elvis Grbac	1995	8	25.2	SFO	STL	Boxscore	219	-3.5	W 44-10
Akili Smith	1999	5	24.1	CIN	CLE	Boxscore	3	-3	W 18-17
Brady Quinn	2008	10	24	CLE	DEN	Boxscore	22	-3	L 30-34
Frank Seurer	1987	10	25.2	KAN	NYJ	Boxscore	76	-3	L 9-16
Cliff Stoudt	1980	8	25.6	PIT	CLE	Boxscore	121	-3	L 26-27
Steve Stenstrom	1998	10	26.9	CHI	STL	Boxscore	134	-3	L 12-20
Tom Savage	2016	16	26.7	HOU	CIN	Boxscore	135	-3	W 12-10
Greg McElroy	2012	16	24.6	NYJ	SDG	Boxscore	208	-3	L 17-27
Ty Detmer	1996	7	29	PHI	NYG	Boxscore	230	-3	W 19-10
Doug Flutie	1986	16	24.2	CHI	DAL	Boxscore	285	-3	W 24-10
Brad Goebel	1991	6	24	PHI	TAM	Boxscore	500	-3	L 13-14
Bernie Kosar	1985	6	21.9	CLE	HOU	Boxscore	1	-2.5	W 21-6
Andre Ware	1990	10	22.3	DET	MIN	Boxscore	7	-2.5	L 7-17
Byron Leftwich	2003	4	23.7	JAX	HOU	Boxscore	7	-2.5	L 20-24
Todd Marinovich	1991	17	22.5	RAI	KAN	Boxscore	24	-2.5	L 21-27
Cody Carlson	1988	2	24.9	HOU	RAI	Boxscore	64	-2.5	W 38-35
Mike Glennon	2013	4	23.8	TAM	ARI	Boxscore	73	-2.5	L 10-13
Chris Chandler	1988	4	23	IND	MIA	Boxscore	76	-2.5	W 15-13
Rodney Peete	1989	4	23.5	DET	PIT	Boxscore	141	-2.5	L 3-23
Mike Moroski	1983	13	26.2	ATL	GNB	Boxscore	154	-2.5	W 47-41
Sean Salisbury	1992	13	29.7	MIN	RAM	Boxscore	500	-2.5	W 31-17
Jake Plummer	1997	9	22.9	ARI	TEN	Boxscore	42	-2	L 14-41
Eric Zeier	1995	9	23.1	CLE	CIN	Boxscore	84	-2	W 29-26
Tom Flick	1986	9	28.2	SDG	KAN	Boxscore	90	-2	L 23-24
Ed Luther	1983	8	26.8	SDG	DEN	Boxscore	101	-2	L 6-14
Doug Nussmeier	1996	15	26	NOR	ATL	Boxscore	116	-2	L 15-31
Craig Krenzel	2004	8	23.3	CHI	SFO	Boxscore	148	-2	W 23-13
John Witkowski	1984	16	22.5	DET	CHI	Boxscore	160	-2	L 13-30
Alex Van Pelt	1997	10	27.5	BUF	MIA	Boxscore	216	-2	W 9-6
Scott Covington	2002	17	27	STL	SFO	Boxscore	245	-2	W 31-20
Mike Loyd	1980	16	24.6	STL	WAS	Boxscore	500	-2	L 7-31
Chad Hutchinson	2002	8	25.7	DAL	SEA	Boxscore	500	-2	L 14-17
Chad Henne	2009	4	24.3	MIA	BUF	Boxscore	57	-1.5	W 38-10
Gary Kubiak	1983	12	22.3	DEN	SEA	Boxscore	197	-1.5	W 38-27
Jeff Garcia	1999	4	29.6	SFO	TEN	Boxscore	500	-1.5	W 24-22
Jared Goff	2016	11	22.1	LAR	MIA	Boxscore	1	-1	L 10-14
Johnny Manziel	2014	15	22	CLE	CIN	Boxscore	22	-1	L 0-30
Brock Osweiler	2015	11	25	DEN	CHI	Boxscore	57	-1	W 17-15
Billy Joe Hobert	1995	15	24.9	OAK	PIT	Boxscore	58	-1	L 10-29
Ryan Lindley	2012	12	23.5	ARI	STL	Boxscore	185	-1	L 17-31
Tom Ramsey	1987	11	26.4	NWE	IND	Boxscore	267	-1	W 24-0
Mark Malone	1981	15	23.1	PIT	CIN	Boxscore	28	0	L 10-17
Jacoby Brissett	2016	3	22.8	NWE	HOU	Boxscore	91	0	W 27-0
Stephen McGee	2010	17	25.3	DAL	PHI	Boxscore	101	0	W 14-13
Jeff Komlo	1979	2	23.1	DET	WAS	Boxscore	231	0	L 24-27
Jeff Rutledge	1979	11	22.8	RAM	CHI	Boxscore	246	0	L 23-27
Doug Johnson	2000	14	23.1	ATL	SEA	Boxscore	500	0	L 10-30
Steve Young	1985	12	24.1	TAM	DET	Boxscore	1	1	W 19-16
Tony Banks	1996	5	23.5	STL	ARI	Boxscore	42	1	L 28-31
Bryce Petty	2016	10	25.5	NYJ	LAR	Boxscore	103	1	L 6-9
Tyrod Taylor	2015	2	26.1	BUF	NWE	Boxscore	180	1	L 32-40
Matt Cassel	2008	2	26.3	NWE	NYJ	Boxscore	230	1	W 19-10
Tim Hasselbeck	2003	13	25.7	WAS	NOR	Boxscore	500	1	L 20-24
Patrick Ramsey	2002	6	23.7	WAS	NOR	Boxscore	32	1.5	L 27-43
Paul Justin	1995	11	27.5	IND	NOR	Boxscore	190	1.5	L 14-17
Jon Kitna	1997	16	25.2	SEA	OAK	Boxscore	500	1.5	W 22-21
Nick Mullens	2018	9	23.6	SFO	OAK	Boxscore	500	1.5	W 34-3
T.J. Yates	2011	13	24.5	HOU	ATL	Boxscore	152	2	W 17-10
A.J. Feeley	2002	13	25.5	PHI	STL	Boxscore	155	2	W 10-3
Bill Kenney	1980	14	25.9	KAN	DEN	Boxscore	333	2	W 31-14
Baker Mayfield	2018	4	23.5	CLE	OAK	Boxscore	1	2.5	L 42-45
Ben Roethlisberger	2004	3	22.6	PIT	MIA	Boxscore	11	2.5	W 13-3
Jim Harbaugh	1988	14	25	CHI	RAM	Boxscore	26	2.5	L 3-23
Kevin Kolb	2009	2	25.1	PHI	NOR	Boxscore	36	2.5	L 22-48
Shaun King	1999	13	22.5	TAM	MIN	Boxscore	50	2.5	W 24-17
Andrew Walter	2006	4	24.4	OAK	CLE	Boxscore	69	2.5	L 21-24
Bobby Hoying	1997	12	25.2	PHI	BAL	Boxscore	85	2.5	T 10-10
Randy Dean	1978	15	23.5	NYG	STL	Boxscore	117	2.5	W 17-0
Turk Schonert	1983	7	26.7	CIN	DEN	Boxscore	242	2.5	L 17-24
Bruce Mathison	1985	10	26.5	BUF	HOU	Boxscore	272	2.5	W 20-0
Joe Dufek	1984	5	23.1	BUF	IND	Boxscore	500	2.5	L 17-31
Kelly Holcomb	1997	11	24.3	IND	CIN	Boxscore	500	2.5	L 13-28
Ray Lucas	1999	6	27.2	NYJ	IND	Boxscore	500	2.5	L 13-16
Todd Bouman	2001	13	29.4	MIN	TEN	Boxscore	500	2.5	W 42-24
Eli Manning	2004	11	23.9	NYG	ATL	Boxscore	1	3	L 10-14
Jack Thompson	1979	4	23.3	CIN	HOU	Boxscore	3	3	L 27-30
Patrick Mahomes	2017	17	22.3	KAN	DEN	Boxscore	10	3	W 27-24
Chad Pennington	2002	5	26.3	NYJ	KAN	Boxscore	18	3	L 25-29
Rex Grossman	2003	15	23.3	CHI	MIN	Boxscore	22	3	W 13-10
Jason Campbell	2006	11	24.9	WAS	TAM	Boxscore	25	3	L 17-20
Teddy Bridgewater	2014	4	21.9	MIN	ATL	Boxscore	32	3	W 41-28
Charlie Frye	2005	13	24.3	CLE	JAX	Boxscore	67	3	L 14-20
Trent Edwards	2007	4	23.9	BUF	NYJ	Boxscore	92	3	W 17-14
Chris Simms	2004	5	24.1	TAM	NOR	Boxscore	97	3	W 20-17
Mark Herrmann	1982	17	24	DEN	SEA	Boxscore	98	3	L 11-13
Landry Jones	2015	7	26.6	PIT	KAN	Boxscore	115	3	L 13-23
Mike Buck	1993	17	26.7	NOR	PHI	Boxscore	156	3	L 26-37
Kurt Kittner	2003	7	23.7	ATL	NOR	Boxscore	158	3	L 17-45
Reggie Collier	1986	16	25.6	DAL	CHI	Boxscore	162	3	L 10-24
Craig Whelihan	1997	11	26.6	SDG	SEA	Boxscore	197	3	L 31-37
Wade Wilson	1983	16	24.9	MIN	CIN	Boxscore	210	3	W 20-14
Ryan Fitzpatrick	2005	13	23	STL	WAS	Boxscore	250	3	L 9-24
Bill Troup	1978	2	27.4	BAL	MIA	Boxscore	500	3	L 0-42
Guido Merkens	1982	16	27.4	NOR	WAS	Boxscore	500	3	L 10-27
Clint Stoerner	2001	7	23.8	DAL	ARI	Boxscore	500	3	W 17-3
Caleb Hanie	2011	12	26.2	CHI	OAK	Boxscore	500	3	L 20-25
Scott Tolzien	2013	11	26.2	GNB	NYG	Boxscore	500	3	L 13-27
Taylor Heinicke	2018	16	25.8	CAR	ATL	Boxscore	500	3	L 10-24
Mitchell Trubisky	2017	5	23.1	CHI	MIN	Boxscore	2	3.5	L 17-20
Jim McMahon	1982	11	23.3	CHI	DET	Boxscore	5	3.5	W 20-17
Matt Leinart	2006	5	23.4	ARI	KAN	Boxscore	10	3.5	L 20-23
Blaine Gabbert	2011	3	21.9	JAX	CAR	Boxscore	10	3.5	L 10-16
Josh Rosen	2018	4	21.6	ARI	SEA	Boxscore	10	3.5	L 17-20
Tommy Maddox	1992	12	21.2	DEN	RAI	Boxscore	25	3.5	L 0-24
Brett Favre	1992	4	23	GNB	PIT	Boxscore	33	3.5	W 17-3
Jimmy Clausen	2010	3	23	CAR	CIN	Boxscore	48	3.5	L 7-20
Frank Reich	1989	6	27.9	BUF	RAM	Boxscore	57	3.5	W 23-20
Peter Tom Willis	1992	13	25.9	CHI	CLE	Boxscore	63	3.5	L 14-27
Ryan Mallett	2014	11	26.4	HOU	CLE	Boxscore	74	3.5	W 23-7
Brock Huard	2000	6	24.5	SEA	CAR	Boxscore	77	3.5	L 3-26
Nick Foles	2012	11	23.8	PHI	WAS	Boxscore	88	3.5	L 6-31
Paul McDonald	1982	15	24.8	CLE	PIT	Boxscore	109	3.5	W 10-9
Danny Kanell	1997	7	23.9	NYG	ARI	Boxscore	130	3.5	W 27-13
Brett Hundley	2017	7	24.4	GNB	NOR	Boxscore	147	3.5	L 17-26
Randy Wright	1984	15	23.9	GNB	CHI	Boxscore	153	3.5	W 20-14
Zach Mettenberger	2014	8	23.3	TEN	HOU	Boxscore	178	3.5	L 16-30
Moses Moreno	1998	13	23.2	CHI	TAM	Boxscore	232	3.5	L 17-31
Quinn Gray	2007	8	28.4	JAX	TAM	Boxscore	500	3.5	W 24-23
Matt Kofler	1985	12	26.2	IND	KAN	Boxscore	48	4	L 7-20
Tarvaris Jackson	2006	16	23.7	MIN	GNB	Boxscore	64	4	L 7-9
Connor Cook	2016	18	23.9	OAK	HOU	Boxscore	100	4	L 14-27
Kirk Cousins	2012	15	24.3	WAS	CLE	Boxscore	102	4	W 38-21
John Skelton	2010	14	22.7	ARI	DEN	Boxscore	155	4	W 43-13
Jeff Driskel	2018	13	25.6	CIN	DEN	Boxscore	207	4	L 10-24
Matt Mauck	2005	17	26.9	TEN	JAX	Boxscore	225	4	L 13-40
Brad Johnson	1996	2	28	MIN	ATL	Boxscore	227	4	W 23-17
Tom Tupa	1989	6	23.7	PHO	PHI	Boxscore	68	4.5	L 5-17
Danny Wuerffel	1997	8	23.4	NOR	CAR	Boxscore	99	4.5	L 0-13
Trent Green	1998	2	28.2	WAS	SFO	Boxscore	222	4.5	L 10-45
Jeff Tuel	2013	9	22.7	BUF	KAN	Boxscore	500	4.5	L 13-23
Deshaun Watson	2017	2	22	HOU	CIN	Boxscore	12	5	W 13-9
Tony Eason	1983	13	24.1	NWE	NYJ	Boxscore	15	5	L 3-26
Steve Fuller	1979	3	22.7	KAN	HOU	Boxscore	23	5	L 6-20
Randall Cunningham	1985	2	22.5	PHI	RAM	Boxscore	37	5	L 6-17
Tom Hodson	1990	12	23.8	NWE	PHO	Boxscore	59	5	L 14-34
Seneca Wallace	2006	8	26.2	SEA	KAN	Boxscore	110	5	L 28-35
Steve Pelluer	1986	5	24.2	DAL	DEN	Boxscore	113	5	L 14-29
Rusty Smith	2010	12	23.8	TEN	HOU	Boxscore	176	5	L 0-20
Tim Rattay	2003	9	26.6	SFO	STL	Boxscore	212	5	W 30-10
Jeff Kemp	1984	4	25.2	RAM	CIN	Boxscore	500	5	W 24-14
Kerry Collins	1995	5	22.8	CAR	TAM	Boxscore	5	5.5	L 13-20
Jeff Hostetler	1988	13	27.6	NYG	NOR	Boxscore	59	5.5	W 13-12
Jay Schroeder	1985	12	24.4	WAS	PIT	Boxscore	83	5.5	W 30-23
Cary Conklin	1993	3	25.6	WAS	PHI	Boxscore	86	5.5	L 31-34
Mark Vlasic	1988	11	25.1	SDG	ATL	Boxscore	88	5.5	W 10-7
Tony Romo	2006	8	26.5	DAL	CAR	Boxscore	500	5.5	W 35-14
Austin Davis	2014	2	25.3	STL	TAM	Boxscore	500	5.5	W 19-17
Dave Wilson	1981	4	22.4	NOR	SFO	Boxscore	1	6	L 14-21
Donovan McNabb	1999	10	23	PHI	WAS	Boxscore	2	6	W 35-28
Phil Simms	1979	6	23.9	NYG	TAM	Boxscore	7	6	W 17-14
Oliver Luck	1983	11	23.6	HOU	DET	Boxscore	44	6	W 27-17
Joe Montana	1979	14	23.5	SFO	STL	Boxscore	82	6	L 10-13
Sean Mannion	2017	17	25.7	LAR	SFO	Boxscore	89	6	L 13-34
John Navarre	2004	13	24.2	ARI	DET	Boxscore	202	6	L 12-26
Case Keenum	2013	7	25.7	HOU	KAN	Boxscore	500	6	L 16-17
Art Schlichter	1984	12	24.6	IND	NWE	Boxscore	4	6.5	L 17-50
Billy Joe Tolliver	1989	8	23.7	SDG	SEA	Boxscore	51	6.5	L 7-10
Charlie Batch	1998	3	23.8	DET	MIN	Boxscore	60	6.5	L 6-29
Matt Schaub	2004	16	23.5	ATL	NOR	Boxscore	90	6.5	L 13-26
Matt Barkley	2016	12	26.2	CHI	TEN	Boxscore	98	6.5	L 21-27
Donald Hollas	1991	13	24	CIN	RAI	Boxscore	99	6.5	L 14-38
C.J. Beathard	2017	7	23.9	SFO	DAL	Boxscore	104	6.5	L 10-40
Scott Secules	1993	7	28.9	NWE	HOU	Boxscore	151	6.5	L 14-28
Tyler Thigpen	2008	3	24.4	KAN	ATL	Boxscore	217	6.5	L 14-38
Anthony Wright	2000	16	24.8	DAL	NYG	Boxscore	500	6.5	L 13-17
Kellen Moore	2015	16	26.5	DAL	BUF	Boxscore	500	6.5	L 6-16
Timm Rosenbach	1989	15	23.1	PHO	DEN	Boxscore	2	7	L 0-37
Hugh Millen	1989	4	25.9	ATL	GNB	Boxscore	71	7	L 21-23
Josh McCown	2003	15	24.4	ARI	CAR	Boxscore	81	7	L 17-20
Scott Zolak	1992	11	24.9	NWE	IND	Boxscore	84	7	W 37-34
Mark Brunell	1995	3	25	JAX	NYJ	Boxscore	118	7	L 10-27
Scott Brunner	1980	14	23.7	NYG	SEA	Boxscore	145	7	W 27-21
Marc Bulger	2002	6	25.5	STL	OAK	Boxscore	168	7	W 28-13
Nathan Peterman	2017	11	23.5	BUF	LAC	Boxscore	171	7	L 24-54
Bruce Gradkowski	2006	5	23.7	TAM	NOR	Boxscore	194	7	L 21-24
Gus Frerotte	1994	8	23.2	WAS	IND	Boxscore	197	7	W 41-27
Henry Burris	2002	17	27.6	CHI	TAM	Boxscore	500	7	L 0-15
Max Hall	2010	5	25	ARI	NOR	Boxscore	500	7	W 30-20
Joey Harrington	2002	3	23.9	DET	GNB	Boxscore	3	7.5	L 31-37
David Klingler	1992	13	23.8	CIN	PIT	Boxscore	6	7.5	L 9-21
Josh Allen	2018	2	22.3	BUF	LAC	Boxscore	7	7.5	L 20-31
Jack Trudeau	1986	3	24	IND	RAM	Boxscore	47	7.5	L 7-24
Bubby Brister	1986	6	24.2	PIT	CIN	Boxscore	67	7.5	L 22-24
Charlie Whitehurst	2010	9	28.3	SEA	NYG	Boxscore	81	7.5	L 7-41
Jesse Palmer	2003	15	25.2	NYG	NOR	Boxscore	125	7.5	L 7-45
Kevin Hogan	2017	6	25	CLE	HOU	Boxscore	162	7.5	L 17-33
Brooks Bollinger	2005	4	25.9	NYJ	BAL	Boxscore	200	7.5	L 3-13
Derek Anderson	2006	14	23.5	CLE	PIT	Boxscore	213	7.5	L 7-27
Ken Dorsey	2004	2	23.4	SFO	NOR	Boxscore	241	7.5	L 27-30
Terrelle Pryor	2012	17	23.5	OAK	SDG	Boxscore	1	8	L 21-24
Steve Pisarkiewicz	1978	8	24.9	STL	NYJ	Boxscore	19	8	L 10-23
Tim Tebow	2010	15	23.3	DEN	OAK	Boxscore	25	8	L 23-39
Brian Brohm	2009	16	24.3	BUF	ATL	Boxscore	56	8	L 3-31
Randy Fasani	2002	8	24.1	CAR	TAM	Boxscore	137	8	L 9-12
Mike McMahon	2001	13	22.8	DET	TAM	Boxscore	149	8	L 12-15
Dennis Dixon	2009	12	24.9	PIT	BAL	Boxscore	156	8	L 17-20
Bobby Hebert	1985	11	25.2	NOR	GNB	Boxscore	500	8	L 14-38
Matt Moore	2007	15	23.4	CAR	SEA	Boxscore	500	8	W 13-10
Kyle Allen	2018	17	22.8	CAR	NOR	Boxscore	500	8	W 33-14
Steve Walsh	1989	5	22.9	DAL	GNB	Boxscore	1	8.5	L 13-31
Stoney Case	1997	8	25.3	ARI	PHI	Boxscore	80	8.5	L 10-13
David Garrard	2002	17	24.9	JAX	IND	Boxscore	108	8.5	L 13-20
Tony Graziani	1997	9	23.8	ATL	CAR	Boxscore	204	8.5	L 12-21
Todd Philcox	1992	3	26	CLE	RAI	Boxscore	500	8.5	W 28-16
Jake Delhomme	1999	16	25	NOR	DAL	Boxscore	500	8.5	W 31-24
Shaun Hill	2007	15	27.9	SFO	CIN	Boxscore	500	8.5	W 20-13
JaMarcus Russell	2007	17	22.4	OAK	SDG	Boxscore	1	9	L 17-30
Steve Dils	1980	9	24.9	MIN	WAS	Boxscore	97	9	W 39-14
Bill Musgrave	1996	15	29.1	DEN	GNB	Boxscore	106	9	L 6-41
Vince Evans	1979	3	24.3	CHI	DAL	Boxscore	140	9	L 20-24
Josh Johnson	2009	4	23.4	TAM	WAS	Boxscore	160	9	L 13-16
Dave Krieg	1981	14	23.1	SEA	NYJ	Boxscore	500	9	W 27-23
Cleo Lemon	2006	17	27.4	MIA	IND	Boxscore	500	9	L 22-27
Vince Young	2006	4	23.4	TEN	DAL	Boxscore	3	9.5	L 14-45
Chuck Long	1986	15	23.8	DET	CHI	Boxscore	12	9.5	L 13-16
Josh Freeman	2009	9	21.8	TAM	GNB	Boxscore	17	9.5	W 38-28
John Beck	2007	11	26.2	MIA	PHI	Boxscore	40	9.5	L 7-17
Dave Ragone	2003	14	24.2	HOU	JAX	Boxscore	88	9.5	L 0-27
Cody Pickett	2005	9	25.4	SFO	NYG	Boxscore	217	9.5	L 6-24
Don Majkowski	1987	2	23.6	GNB	DEN	Boxscore	255	9.5	T 17-17
Thaddeus Lewis	2012	17	27.9	CLE	PIT	Boxscore	500	9.5	L 10-24
Neil Lomax	1981	2	22.6	STL	DAL	Boxscore	33	10	L 17-30
Kellen Clemens	2007	2	24.3	NYJ	BAL	Boxscore	49	10	L 13-20
Craig Erickson	1993	2	24.3	TAM	NYG	Boxscore	86	10	L 7-23
Cody Kessler	2016	3	23.4	CLE	MIA	Boxscore	93	10	L 24-30
Curtis Painter	2011	4	26.3	IND	TAM	Boxscore	201	10	L 17-24
Jarious Jackson	2003	17	26.7	DEN	GNB	Boxscore	214	10	L 3-31
Brock Berlin	2007	14	26.4	STL	CIN	Boxscore	500	10	L 10-19
Vinny Testaverde	1987	13	24.1	TAM	NOR	Boxscore	1	10.5	L 34-44
John Friesz	1990	17	23.6	SDG	RAI	Boxscore	138	10.5	L 12-17
Matt McGloin	2013	11	24	OAK	HOU	Boxscore	500	10.5	W 28-23
Christian Ponder	2011	7	23.7	MIN	GNB	Boxscore	12	11	L 27-33
Luke McCown	2004	13	23.4	CLE	NWE	Boxscore	106	11	L 15-42
Sage Rosenfels	2004	17	26.8	MIA	BAL	Boxscore	109	11	L 23-30
Heath Shuler	1994	5	22.8	WAS	DAL	Boxscore	3	11.5	L 7-34
Tom Brady	2001	3	24.2	NWE	IND	Boxscore	199	11.5	W 44-13
Will Furrer	1992	17	24.9	CHI	DAL	Boxscore	107	12	L 14-27
Stan Gelbaugh	1991	12	29	PHO	SFO	Boxscore	150	12	L 10-14
Blake Bortles	2014	4	22.4	JAX	SDG	Boxscore	3	12.5	L 14-33
Jeff Carlson	1991	16	25.6	TAM	CHI	Boxscore	102	13	L 0-27
Dan Orlovsky	2008	6	25.2	DET	MIN	Boxscore	145	13	L 10-12
Glenn Foley	1996	15	26.2	NYJ	NWE	Boxscore	208	13	L 10-34
T.J. Rubley	1993	9	24.9	RAM	SFO	Boxscore	228	13	L 17-40
Jonathan Quinn	1998	16	23.8	JAX	MIN	Boxscore	86	13.5	L 10-50
David Humm	1981	14	29.7	BAL	DAL	Boxscore	128	13.5	L 13-37
Aaron Brooks	2000	13	24.7	NOR	STL	Boxscore	131	13.5	W 31-24
Brian St. Pierre	2010	11	31	CAR	BAL	Boxscore	163	13.5	L 13-37
Troy Smith	2007	16	23.4	BAL	SEA	Boxscore	174	13.5	L 6-27
Connor Shaw	2014	17	23.3	CLE	BAL	Boxscore	500	13.5	L 10-20
Alex Smith	2005	5	21.4	SFO	IND	Boxscore	1	14	L 3-28
Drew Stanton	2009	16	25.6	DET	SFO	Boxscore	43	14	L 6-20
Colt McCoy	2010	6	24.1	CLE	PIT	Boxscore	85	14	L 10-28
Keith Null	2009	14	24.2	STL	TEN	Boxscore	196	14	L 7-47
Brodie Croyle	2007	11	24.8	KAN	IND	Boxscore	85	14.5	L 10-13
Spergon Wynn	2000	14	22.3	CLE	JAX	Boxscore	183	14.5	L 0-48
Joe Webb	2010	16	24.1	MIN	PHI	Boxscore	199	14.5	W 24-14
Matt Flynn	2010	15	25.5	GNB	NWE	Boxscore	209	14.5	L 27-31
Bucky Richardson	1994	2	25.6	HOU	DAL	Boxscore	220	14.5	L 17-20
David Archer	1985	6	23.7	ATL	SEA	Boxscore	500	14.5	L 26-30
Chase Daniel	2013	17	27.2	KAN	SDG	Boxscore	500	14.5	L 24-27
Jeff Blake	1994	9	23.9	CIN	DAL	Boxscore	166	15	L 20-23
Kent Graham	1992	13	24.1	NYG	DAL	Boxscore	211	15	L 3-30
Trent Dilfer	1994	8	22.6	TAM	SFO	Boxscore	6	15.5	L 16-41
Erik Wilhelm	1991	9	25.9	CIN	HOU	Boxscore	83	15.5	L 3-35
Tim Couch	1999	2	22.1	CLE	TEN	Boxscore	1	16	L 9-26
Chris Miller	1987	15	22.4	ATL	SFO	Boxscore	13	16	L 7-35
Brian Hoyer	2012	17	27.2	ARI	SFO	Boxscore	500	16.5	L 13-27
Tyler Palko	2011	11	28.3	KAN	NWE	Boxscore	500	17	L 3-34
Koy Detmer	1998	13	25.4	PHI	GNB	Boxscore	207	18	L 16-24
Matt Lytle	2001	9	26.2	CAR	STL	Boxscore	500	18	L 14-48

If you sort by point spread, you’ll see a few teams were underdogs of over two touchdowns. That makes sense: they were starting backup quarterbacks who never started a game before. There were 21 instances where a team was an underdog of 14+ points, and those teams went 1-20. The one upset was led by Joe Webb on the Vikings over the Eagles, in a rare Tuesday night game that was moved due to an impending snow storm in Philadelphia.

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