Final 2016 ANY/A Differential and Passing Value Numbers

by Chase Stuart on January 2, 2017

With the 2016 season in the books, let’s take a look at the final ANY/A differential numbers. As regular readers know, ANY/A is simply yards per attempt that includes sack data and has a 20-yard bonus for passing touchdowns and a 45-yard penalty for interceptions.

ANY/A differential is one of the best measures of team play. This season, Atlanta very narrowly edged New England for the ANY/A differential crown. No team finished in the top 8 of both offensive ANY/A and defensive ANY/A – a sign of how compressed the league was this season — but the Patriots were closest, ranking 2nd in offensive ANY/A and 9th in defensive ANY/A. But because Atlanta had such a large lead in offensive ANY/A, the Falcons were number one in ANY/A differential even with the 18th best pass defense.

Rk	Tm	Off ANY/A	Off Rk	Def ANY/A	Def Rk	Diff	Win %
1	Atlanta Falcons	9.01	1	6.31	18	2.70	0.688
2	New England Patriots	8.46	2	5.78	9	2.68	0.875
3	Denver Broncos	5.89	22	4.38	1	1.50	0.563
4	Dallas Cowboys	7.56	3	6.37	22	1.19	0.813
5	Washington Redskins	7.49	4	6.36	20	1.13	0.531
6	Minnesota Vikings	6.41	16	5.33	3	1.08	0.500
7	Cincinnati Bengals	6.53	14	5.55	5	0.98	0.406
8	Pittsburgh Steelers	6.79	9	5.89	11	0.90	0.688
9	Kansas City Chiefs	6.51	15	5.76	8	0.74	0.750
10	Seattle Seahawks	6.64	10	5.94	12	0.70	0.656
11	Miami Dolphins	6.64	11	6.02	13	0.62	0.625
12	New York Giants	5.93	20	5.34	4	0.59	0.688
13	San Diego Chargers	6.35	17	5.85	10	0.50	0.313
14	Tennessee Titans	6.82	8	6.32	19	0.49	0.563
15	Arizona Cardinals	5.72	23	5.30	2	0.42	0.469
16	Green Bay Packers	7.08	6	6.85	25	0.24	0.625
17	Oakland Raiders	7.03	7	6.96	26	0.07	0.750
18	New Orleans Saints	7.36	5	7.38	31	-0.02	0.438
19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6.03	18	6.36	21	-0.33	0.563
20	Buffalo Bills	5.89	21	6.22	17	-0.34	0.438
21	Baltimore Ravens	5.31	26	5.70	7	-0.40	0.500
22	Indianapolis Colts	6.64	12	7.12	27	-0.49	0.500
23	Chicago Bears	5.95	19	6.49	24	-0.53	0.188
24	Detroit Lions	6.56	13	7.28	30	-0.72	0.563
25	Carolina Panthers	5.43	24	6.17	16	-0.74	0.375
26	Jacksonville Jaguars	5.28	27	6.04	14	-0.76	0.188
27	Philadelphia Eagles	5.10	28	6.15	15	-1.05	0.438
28	Houston Texans	4.48	31	5.66	6	-1.18	0.563
29	San Francisco 49ers	5.36	25	7.22	28	-1.86	0.125
30	Los Angeles Rams	3.98	32	6.40	23	-2.41	0.250
31	New York Jets	4.55	30	7.23	29	-2.69	0.313
32	Cleveland Browns	4.64	29	7.50	32	-2.86	0.063

The Browns, Jets, and Rams rank in the bottom 3 of ANY/A differential, far behind the rest of the league. And while the Texans have justifiably been mocked for making the playoffs despite being so bad — and they are 28th here — note that the Lions aren’t too far behind, at 24th.

Other notes: the top three defenses, and four of the top five, all missed the playoffs. 2016 was a weird year.

The R^2 between ANY/A differential and winning percentage this year was 0.53. The big “overacheivers” were the Raiders and Cowboys, who had perhaps the two best offensive lines in football, and the Texans, who were probably the luckiest team in the NFL. On the other side, the Bears, Chargers, Jaguars, and Bengals were big underachievers.

Passing Value Leaders

How good was Matt Ryan’s 2016 season? The Atlanta quarterback averaged 9.03 ANY/A this year, while the league average was 6.22, slightly below the 2015 mark. That means Ryan was 2.81 ANY/A above average this year, and he produced at such a level over a whopping 571 dropbacks. Multiply those two numbers, and it means that Ryan produced 1,604 Adjusted Net Yards of Value over league average, easily the most in the league (and notable as one of the better seasons of all time).

Rk	Quarterback	Tm	Age	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Yds	ANY/A	VALUE
1	Matt Ryan	ATL	31	534	4944	38	7	37	235	9.03	1604
2	Tom Brady	NWE	39	432	3554	28	2	15	87	8.81	1158
3	Dak Prescott	DAL	23	459	3667	23	4	25	143	7.86	795
4	Kirk Cousins	WAS	28	606	4917	25	12	23	190	7.45	776
5	Drew Brees	NOR	37	673	5208	37	15	27	184	7.27	737
6	Aaron Rodgers	GNB	33	610	4428	40	7	35	246	7.24	657
7	Derek Carr	OAK	25	560	3937	28	6	16	79	7.20	567
8	Marcus Mariota	TEN	23	451	3426	26	9	23	156	7.14	438
9	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	34	509	3819	29	13	17	141	6.98	403
10	Andrew Luck	IND	27	545	4240	31	13	41	268	6.84	364
11	Matthew Stafford	DET	28	594	4327	24	10	37	216	6.56	218
12	Russell Wilson	SEA	28	546	4219	21	11	41	293	6.56	201
13	Andy Dalton	CIN	29	563	4206	18	8	41	264	6.53	187
14	Sam Bradford	MIN	29	552	3877	20	5	37	276	6.41	114
15	Philip Rivers	SDG	35	578	4386	33	21	36	188	6.37	96
16	Alex Smith	KAN	32	489	3502	15	8	28	140	6.39	88
17	Ryan Tannehill	MIA	28	389	2995	19	12	29	216	6.27	20
18	Tyrod Taylor	BUF	27	436	3023	17	6	42	192	6.07	-71
19	Trevor Siemian	DEN	24	486	3401	18	10	31	187	6.04	-90
20	Colin Kaepernick	SFO	29	331	2241	16	4	36	207	5.92	-108
21	Carson Palmer	ARI	37	597	4233	26	14	40	281	6.03	-118
22	Jameis Winston	TAM	22	567	4090	28	18	35	239	5.98	-142
23	Eli Manning	NYG	35	598	4027	26	16	21	142	5.95	-164
24	Case Keenum	LAR	28	322	2201	9	11	23	140	5.06	-399
25	Cam Newton	CAR	27	510	3509	19	14	36	277	5.46	-413
26	Ryan Fitzpatrick	NYJ	34	403	2710	12	17	19	81	4.99	-520
27	Joe Flacco	BAL	31	672	4317	20	15	33	243	5.39	-584
28	Blake Bortles	JAX	24	625	3905	23	16	34	197	5.23	-649
29	Carson Wentz	PHI	24	607	3782	16	14	33	213	5.09	-720
30	Brock Osweiler	HOU	26	510	2957	15	16	27	206	4.34	-1008

As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments.

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