Examining the seasons of Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall in a different light

Three weeks ago, I set forth the argument that perhaps Calvin Johnson was not even the most productive receiver in his own division. While Megatron racked up the numbers, I argued that you have to account for the situation. The relevant situation here is that the Lions ran an incredible 1,160 plays compared to just 999 for the Bears, and Detroit attempted 740 passes while Chicago threw only 485 times.

When one team throws 255 more passes than the other, I don’t think it’s appropriate to compare the receivers based on their raw receiving yards. One thing we could look at is yards per team attempt. The table below lists the number of team attempts for each wide receiver, his raw receiving statistics, and also his yards per attempt. The table is sorted by yards per team passing attempt. And while it is not relevant when discussing Marshall and Megatron, I have also included a Pro-rated Yards per Attempt column, which pro-rates the number of team attempts for the number of games played by the receiver (this helps Percy Harvin, of course).

Rk	Player	Tm	G	TmAtt	Rec	Yds	YPR	TD	Y/A	PY/A
1	Brandon Marshall	CHI	16	485	118	1508	12.8	11	3.11	3.11
2	Andre Johnson	HOU	16	554	112	1598	14.3	4	2.88	2.88
3	Calvin Johnson	DET	16	740	122	1964	16.1	5	2.65	2.65
4	Michael Crabtree	SFO	16	436	85	1105	13	9	2.53	2.53
5	A.J. Green	CIN	16	540	97	1350	13.9	11	2.5	2.5
6	Vincent Jackson	TAM	16	566	72	1384	19.2	8	2.45	2.45
7	Demaryius Thomas	DEN	16	588	94	1434	15.3	10	2.44	2.44
8	Steve Smith	CAR	16	490	73	1174	16.1	4	2.4	2.4
9	Roddy White	ATL	16	615	92	1351	14.7	7	2.2	2.2
10	Reggie Wayne	IND	16	628	106	1355	12.8	5	2.16	2.16
11	Brian Hartline	MIA	16	504	74	1083	14.6	1	2.15	2.15
12	Wes Welker	NWE	16	641	118	1354	11.5	6	2.11	2.11
13	Dez Bryant	DAL	16	658	92	1382	15	12	2.1	2.1
14	Steve Johnson	BUF	16	511	79	1046	13.2	6	2.05	2.05
15	Victor Cruz	NYG	16	539	86	1092	12.7	10	2.03	2.03
16	Julio Jones	ATL	16	615	79	1198	15.2	10	1.95	1.95
17	Sidney Rice	SEA	16	405	50	748	15	7	1.85	1.85
18	Eric Decker	DEN	16	588	85	1064	12.5	13	1.81	1.81
19	Mike Williams	TAM	16	566	63	996	15.8	9	1.76	1.76
20	Greg Olsen	CAR	16	490	69	843	12.2	5	1.72	1.72
21	Marques Colston	NOR	16	671	83	1154	13.9	10	1.72	1.72
22	Randall Cobb	GNB	15	558	80	954	11.9	8	1.71	1.82
23	Golden Tate	SEA	15	405	45	688	15.3	7	1.7	1.81
24	Dwayne Bowe	KAN	13	475	59	801	13.6	3	1.69	2.08
25	Jeremy Kerley	NYJ	16	493	56	827	14.8	2	1.68	1.68
26	Cecil Shorts	JAX	14	586	55	979	17.8	7	1.67	1.91
27	Anquan Boldin	BAL	15	560	65	921	14.2	4	1.64	1.75
28	Jason Witten	DAL	16	658	110	1039	9.4	3	1.58	1.58
29	Lance Moore	NOR	15	671	65	1041	16	6	1.55	1.65
30	Davone Bess	MIA	13	504	61	778	12.8	1	1.54	1.9
31	Malcom Floyd	SDG	14	528	56	814	14.5	5	1.54	1.76
32	Torrey Smith	BAL	16	560	49	855	17.4	8	1.53	1.53
33	Tony Gonzalez	ATL	16	615	93	930	10	8	1.51	1.51
34	Justin Blackmon	JAX	16	586	64	865	13.5	5	1.48	1.48
35	Jimmy Graham	NOR	15	671	85	982	11.6	9	1.46	1.56
36	Mike Wallace	PIT	15	574	64	836	13.1	8	1.46	1.55
37	Miles Austin	DAL	16	658	66	943	14.3	6	1.43	1.43
38	Pierre Garcon	WAS	10	442	44	633	14.4	4	1.43	2.29
39	Josh Gordon	CLE	16	566	50	805	16.1	5	1.42	1.42
40	Heath Miller	PIT	15	574	71	816	11.5	8	1.42	1.52
41	Brandon Lloyd	NWE	16	641	74	911	12.3	4	1.42	1.42
42	James Jones	GNB	16	558	64	784	12.3	14	1.41	1.41
43	Percy Harvin	MIN	9	483	62	677	10.9	3	1.4	2.49
44	Jeremy Maclin	PHI	15	618	69	857	12.4	7	1.39	1.48
45	Brandon LaFell	CAR	14	490	44	677	15.4	4	1.38	1.58
46	Nate Washington	TEN	16	540	46	746	16.2	4	1.38	1.38
47	Antonio Brown	PIT	13	574	66	787	11.9	5	1.37	1.69
48	T.Y. Hilton	IND	15	628	50	861	17.2	7	1.37	1.46
49	Jermaine Gresham	CIN	16	540	64	737	11.5	5	1.36	1.36
50	Jordy Nelson	GNB	12	558	49	745	15.2	7	1.34	1.78
51	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	16	608	71	798	11.2	4	1.31	1.31
52	Santana Moss	WAS	16	442	41	573	14	8	1.3	1.3
53	Owen Daniels	HOU	15	554	62	716	11.5	6	1.29	1.38
54	Hakeem Nicks	NYG	13	539	53	692	13.1	3	1.28	1.58
55	Brandon Myers	OAK	16	629	79	806	10.2	4	1.28	1.28
56	Vernon Davis	SFO	16	436	41	548	13.4	5	1.26	1.26
57	Chris Givens	STL	15	557	42	698	16.6	3	1.25	1.34
58	Andre Roberts	ARI	15	608	64	759	11.9	5	1.25	1.33
59	Danario Alexander	SDG	10	528	37	658	17.8	7	1.25	1.99
60	Donnie Avery	IND	16	628	60	781	13	3	1.24	1.24
61	Brandon Gibson	STL	16	557	51	691	13.5	5	1.24	1.24
62	Rob Gronkowski	NWE	11	641	55	790	14.4	11	1.23	1.79
63	Leonard Hankerson	WAS	16	442	38	543	14.3	3	1.23	1.23
64	Danny Amendola	STL	11	557	63	666	10.6	3	1.2	1.74
65	Jermichael Finley	GNB	16	558	61	667	10.9	2	1.2	1.2
66	Dennis Pitta	BAL	16	560	61	669	11	7	1.19	1.19
67	Denarius Moore	OAK	15	629	51	741	14.5	7	1.18	1.26
68	Martellus Bennett	NYG	16	539	55	626	11.4	5	1.16	1.16
69	Kendall Wright	TEN	15	540	64	626	9.8	4	1.16	1.24
70	Josh Morgan	WAS	16	442	48	510	10.6	2	1.15	1.15

Why can't we throw it like the Lions do??

As it turns out, Calvin Johnson was neither the best Johnson nor the best receiver in his division, at least as measured by this metric. I’m not convinced or even arguing that yards/attempt is the best way to rank receivers, but I do think the statistic represents an improvement on just receiving yards. Since receiving yards are so highly correlated with attempts, some adjustment needs to be made, and I plan on providing more analysis on how to grade wide receivers this off-season.

That said, there are a couple of other factors that favor Johnson. One, there are benefits associated with great over a larger number of pass attempts; Detroit passed much more frequently, and being elite over a longer period of time (or for more plays/passes) is more valuable than being elite over a shorter period of time. Additionally, the Lions passing offense was more efficient than the Bears passing offense. The Lions ranked 16th in ANY/A, the Bears 26th; Detroit also ranked 14th in NY/A, while the Bears finished 27th; and in Pro-Football-Reference.com’s Expected Points Added metric, the Lions passing attack ranked 13th, the Bears 24th. Johnson may not have been the centerpiece of an elite offense, but he certainly was the main man in a better offense.

On the other hand, it’s worth noting that Marshall had a huge edge in receiving touchdowns. Now personally, I don’t give that a ton of weight, but you can be sure that Lions fans would point to that number if the statistics were reversed. In any event, I’d vote for Marshall as my top wide receiver this season. Gaining 1500 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns on a team that threw fewer than 500 passes is more impressive than 1,964 yards and 5 touchdowns on a team that broke the record for pass attempts, even if Johnson broke Jerry Rice’s record. Marshall gained 77% as many yards as Megatron on 66% as many pass attempts.

And while some will argue that Megatron was everything to the Lions, that proposition is even more true for Marshall. Take a look at the leaders in percentage of team receiving yards:

Tm	Receiver	TmRecYds	RecYds	Perc
CHI	Brandon Marshall	3298	1508	45.7%
HOU	Andre Johnson	4046	1598	39.5%
DET	Calvin Johnson	5139	1964	38.2%
CIN	A.J. Green	3807	1350	35.5%
TAM	Vincent Jackson	4144	1384	33.4%
MIA	Brian Hartline	3425	1083	31.6%
SFO	Michael Crabtree	3551	1105	31.1%
IND	Reggie Wayne	4374	1355	31%
DEN	Demaryius Thomas	4671	1434	30.7%
BUF	Steve Johnson	3430	1046	30.5%
CAR	Steve Smith	3927	1174	29.9%
ATL	Roddy White	4719	1351	28.6%
NWE	Wes Welker	4844	1354	28%
DAL	Dez Bryant	4992	1382	27.7%
NYG	Victor Cruz	3967	1092	27.5%
KAN	Dwayne Bowe	2937	801	27.3%
JAX	Cecil Shorts	3746	979	26.1%
NYJ	Jeremy Kerley	3178	827	26%
ARI	Larry Fitzgerald	3383	798	23.6%
SEA	Sidney Rice	3234	748	23.1%
MIN	Percy Harvin	2935	677	23.1%
BAL	Anquan Boldin	3996	921	23%
SDG	Malcom Floyd	3606	814	22.6%
NOR	Marques Colston	5187	1154	22.2%
GNB	Randall Cobb	4342	954	22%
CLE	Josh Gordon	3668	805	21.9%
PHI	Jeremy Maclin	4075	857	21%
TEN	Nate Washington	3577	746	20.9%
PIT	Mike Wallace	4012	836	20.8%
OAK	Brandon Myers	4292	806	18.8%
STL	Chris Givens	3783	698	18.5%
WAS	Pierre Garcon	3666	633	17.3%

There’s another Robert Griffin III stat to admire — the Skins were the only team that didn’t have a single player account for at least 18% of the team’s receiving yards. But the most impressive number on that table belongs to Marshall. No doubt Jay Cutler relies on Marshall too frequently, but there is a reason for that: he’s by far the best receiver on the team and one of the top threats in the NFL. Perhaps Cutlers’ tunnel vision bumps Marshall’s numbers up slightly, but it’s still an amazing accomplishment.

How amazing? That’s the highest ratio of player to team receiving yards since 1975. I’ll close with a list of every player in NFL, AFL, or AAFC history to gain at least 40% of his team’s receiving yards in a season (which includes a familiar name). Marshall comes in at number twenty.

Year	Team	Player	RecYd	TmRecYd	Perc
1945	RAM	Jim Benton	1067	1767	60.4%
1944	GNB	Don Hutson	866	1471	58.9%
1935	BOS	Charley Malone	433	767	56.5%
1937	CRD	Gaynell Tinsley	675	1243	54.3%
1945	GNB	Don Hutson	834	1536	54.3%
1936	PHI	Eggs Manske	325	603	53.9%
1939	BKN	Perry Schwartz	550	1024	53.7%
1935	CRD	Bill Smith	318	612	52%
1956	CHI	Harlon Hill	1128	2193	51.4%
1975	HOU	Ken Burrough	1063	2099	50.6%
1942	GNB	Don Hutson	1211	2407	50.3%
1949	PIT	Elbie Nickel	633	1310	48.3%
1965	SDG	Lance Alworth	1602	3379	47.4%
1946	RAM	Jim Benton	981	2080	47.2%
1947	BOS	Don Currivan	782	1661	47.1%
1937	BKN	Jeff Barrett	461	995	46.3%
1966	DET	Pat Studstill	1266	2752	46%
1956	GNB	Billy Howton	1188	2591	45.9%
1952	GNB	Billy Howton	1231	2688	45.8%
2012	CHI	Brandon Marshall	1508	3298	45.7%
1935	NYG	Tod Goodwin	432	947	45.6%
1951	RAM	Elroy Hirsch	1495	3296	45.4%
1939	GNB	Don Hutson	846	1871	45.2%
1952	WAS	Hugh Taylor	961	2127	45.2%
1960	STL	Sonny Randle	893	1990	44.9%
2005	CAR	Steve Smith	1563	3485	44.8%
2005	WAS	Santana Moss	1483	3346	44.3%
1971	MIA	Paul Warfield	996	2248	44.3%
1965	NYJ	Don Maynard	1218	2751	44.3%
1949	DET	Bob Mann	1014	2291	44.3%
1948	CRD	Mal Kutner	943	2134	44.2%
1999	JAX	Jimmy Smith	1636	3716	44%
1969	PIT	Roy Jefferson	1079	2458	43.9%
1952	PHI	Bud Grant	997	2272	43.9%
2001	ARI	David Boston	1598	3653	43.7%
1960	HOU	Bill Groman	1473	3371	43.7%
1997	PIT	Yancey Thigpen	1398	3215	43.5%
1995	STL	Isaac Bruce	1781	4113	43.3%
2008	CAR	Steve Smith	1421	3288	43.2%
1936	BKN	Jeff Barrett	268	621	43.2%
1978	PHI	Harold Carmichael	1072	2485	43.1%
1995	DAL	Michael Irvin	1603	3741	42.8%
1963	PIT	Buddy Dial	1295	3028	42.8%
1974	OAK	Cliff Branch	1092	2561	42.6%
1941	GNB	Don Hutson	738	1731	42.6%
1996	STL	Isaac Bruce	1338	3144	42.6%
1947	PIT	Val Jansante	599	1410	42.5%
1934	PHI	Joe Carter	238	561	42.4%
2006	BUF	Lee Evans	1292	3051	42.3%
1951	SFO	Gordie Soltau	826	1955	42.3%
1970	CHI	Dick Gordon	1026	2431	42.2%
2003	ARI	Anquan Boldin	1377	3265	42.2%
1938	PHI	Joe Carter	386	917	42.1%
2001	DEN	Rod Smith	1343	3208	41.9%
1992	GNB	Sterling Sharpe	1461	3498	41.8%
1991	DAL	Michael Irvin	1523	3663	41.6%
1966	KAN	Otis Taylor	1297	3123	41.5%
1973	RAM	Harold Jackson	874	2107	41.5%
1972	PHI	Harold Jackson	1048	2527	41.5%
1964	HOU	Charley Hennigan	1546	3734	41.4%
1966	SDG	Lance Alworth	1383	3347	41.3%
1971	KAN	Otis Taylor	1110	2694	41.2%
1982	NWE	Stanley Morgan	584	1420	41.1%
1967	DEN	Al Denson	899	2190	41.1%
1960	BAL	Raymond Berry	1298	3164	41%
2002	IND	Marvin Harrison	1722	4200	41%
1950	CRD	Bob Shaw	971	2375	40.9%
1952	CRD	Don Stonesifer	617	1512	40.8%
1948	PIT	Val Jansante	623	1529	40.7%
1963	WAS	Bobby Mitchell	1436	3525	40.7%
1943	GNB	Don Hutson	776	1909	40.6%
1973	MIN	John Gilliam	907	2234	40.6%
2005	TAM	Joey Galloway	1287	3171	40.6%
1962	PIT	Buddy Dial	981	2419	40.6%
1964	PIT	Gary Ballman	935	2308	40.5%
1953	WAS	Hugh Taylor	703	1736	40.5%
1947	GNB	Nolan Luhn	696	1724	40.4%
1960	RAM	Red Phillips	883	2188	40.4%
2008	DET	Calvin Johnson	1331	3299	40.3%
1961	RAM	Red Phillips	1092	2709	40.3%
1959	WAS	Bill Anderson	734	1824	40.2%
2008	ATL	Roddy White	1382	3440	40.2%
1984	WAS	Art Monk	1372	3417	40.2%
1997	ARI	Rob Moore	1584	3953	40.1%
1944	RAM	Jim Benton	505	1261	40%

Tagged as: Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Calvin Johnson

{ 3 comments… read them below or add one }

Allen January 1, 2013 at 10:17 am: As a #Redskins fan I hate to de-bunk any RGIII love, but I can’t see Garçon staying under 18% w/o the foot injury. I will say that it wouldn’t be anyway near the top either bc of Kyles scheme and how he likes to feature multiple WRs in the same route trees.
Great read and I to thought all season Megatron better out up 1800yds being targeted 20x a damn game. No way Swartz deserved that ext before this season based on his teams discipline and now performance.

James January 1, 2013 at 8:40 pm: Its all well and good to make statistical breakdowns and all but don’t lose site of the fact that a guy broke/smashed a record that had held up for over two decades in a league that has seen Randy Moss, Torry Holt, Marvin Harrison, Terrell Owens, Larry Fitzgerald, etc and that he did it without any real proven weapons around him to keep defenses honest.

I don’t think any WR in NFL history including Rice and Moss has had as much defensive attention sent their way as Calvin Johnson this year. He was good enough that they were able to produce an above average amount of offense despite having no true #2 WR no proven #3 WR after Burelson got hurt a TE who regressed badly in Pettigrew who struggled with drops and fumbles.

They also had an unproven rookie RB coming off a missed year due to an ACL tear before last year who was solid but not a RB who forced teams to take resources from Johnson. I agree that Marshall had somewhat similar issues when Alshon Jefferies was out to deal with but Forte certainly takes attention from Marshall that none take from Calvin Johnson.

Now certainly, in a way this still favors Calvin because it leaves the Lions with nothing to do but throw it to him anyway and let him go get it but it does curtail his ability to score on big plays because he always has two or three defenders around him and an entire defense that has certainly gameplaned to keep him from beating them on his own.

An easy way to explain it, is if say the Lions were to sign Greg Jennings this summer and it works out giving them a guy who can catch 65-80 balls across from Calvin Johnson for 1100-1250 yards of his own and half a dozen TD’s or more. Sure it would make it extremely unlikely that Calvin does get 1900 yards again but chances are with that across from him he’d start chasing Randy Moss’s single season TD record instead and his per catch production would go back towards the high teens again.

Richie January 1, 2013 at 11:49 pm: Your historical list seems to show a change in the way NFL offenses run. Looks like in the 30′s and 40′s, teams just used one main WR (probably called an “end” then), much like teams were using just one RB in the 2000′s.

{ 12 trackbacks }

Examining the seasons of Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall in a different light

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