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Examining Paul Warfield’s career

by Chase Stuart on March 12, 2013

Warfield played for Woody Hayes, Paul Brown, Don Shula, and John McVay

Warfield played for Woody Hayes, Don Shula, and John McVay.

Paul Warfield has been confounding stat heads for years. Warfield was a rare first-ballot Hall of Fame wide receiver and one of the most athletic and talented wide receivers in history. However, his statistics look downright unimpressive to the modern eye. That’s not too surprising, though, since he played the prime of his career in football’s deadball era for one of its best teams.

I was pretty happy when I noticed that Warfield ranked 16th in my wide receiver ranking project last month; that’s much higher than most (all?) stats-based ranking systems place him, although some would argue that it would still underrate him.

One way to understand Warfield’s statistics is to see just how infrequently his teams passed. The table below shows some of the top wide receivers in football history to enter the league since 1960, including some Warfield contemporaries like Gary Garrison, Fred Biletnikoff, Harold Carmichael, and Gene A. Washington. While career numbers are interesting, you can often learn more by just looking at a player’s best seasons.

The table below shows the top 7 seasons for each wide receiver (based on the formula from this post) and how many pass attempts per game his team attempted during those seasons:

Name	Att	G	Att/G	Rec	Yd	TD	ACY/Att
Paul Warfield	2244	93	24.1	273	5692	62	3.7
Otis Taylor	2563	94	27.3	340	6065	46	3.39
Buddy Dial	2109	76	27.8	234	4830	38	3.2
Gene A. Washington	2699	97	27.8	283	5347	54	2.91
Fred Biletnikoff	2617	94	27.8	340	4890	43	2.85
Harold Jackson	2802	100	28	342	6254	51	3.21
Cliff Branch	2638	90	29.3	318	5751	55	3.2
Bob Hayes	2691	91	29.6	321	6617	67	3.55
John Gilliam	2906	98	29.7	304	6083	44	2.92
John Stallworth	3097	103	30.1	400	6636	52	3.12
Charley Taylor	2823	92	30.7	417	5797	56	3.19
Harold Carmichael	3121	101	30.9	364	6108	54	2.89
Stanley Morgan	2969	96	30.9	343	6632	42	3.09
Gary Garrison	2716	87	31.2	285	5623	49	2.96
Hines Ward	3407	108	31.5	616	7373	54	3.39
Steve Smith	3368	106	31.8	583	8638	54	3.75
Lance Alworth	2628	82	32.1	394	7973	73	4.34
Steve Largent	3462	107	32.4	486	7849	66	3.35
Michael Irvin	3476	107	32.5	588	9235	49	3.78
Andre Reed	3579	110	32.5	519	7531	53	3.13
Derrick Mason	3603	109	33.1	566	7490	44	3.11
James Lofton	3492	105	33.3	412	7848	41	3.07
Rod Smith	3678	110	33.4	607	8441	53	3.41
Henry Ellard	3495	104	33.6	467	8102	41	3.22
Art Monk	3618	107	33.8	530	7541	40	3.04
Gary Clark	3589	106	33.9	490	7850	51	3.15
Herman Moore	3590	106	33.9	599	8332	57	3.47
Cris Collinsworth	3216	94	34.2	404	6471	35	2.86
Brandon Marshall	3720	107	34.8	612	7755	45	3.15
Tim Brown	3901	112	34.8	619	8876	57	3.36
Don Maynard	3136	90	34.8	402	7718	54	3.45
Jimmy Smith	3887	111	35	642	8999	48	3.39
Terrell Owens	3663	104	35.2	613	9000	93	3.8
Chad Johnson	3968	112	35.4	603	9083	57	3.34
Roddy White	3976	112	35.5	593	8279	49	3.07
Andre Johnson	3633	102	35.6	656	9098	48	3.67
Andre Rison	3939	110	35.8	547	7545	67	2.95
Randy Moss	4047	112	36.1	624	9899	103	3.73
Marvin Harrison	3977	110	36.2	740	10106	86	3.9
Joe Horn	3701	102	36.3	523	7622	50	3.04
Jerry Rice	3962	108	36.7	665	10483	110	4.04
Reggie Wayne	4200	112	37.5	667	9059	57	3.22
Sterling Sharpe	4213	112	37.6	595	8134	65	2.95
Isaac Bruce	3653	97	37.7	544	8319	53	3.31
Cris Carter	4218	112	37.7	701	8445	78	3.2
Wes Chandler	3903	103	37.9	429	7136	46	2.61
Anquan Boldin	3850	101	38.1	594	7734	50	3.04
Wes Welker	4166	109	38.2	739	8146	38	3.03
Torry Holt	4322	110	39.3	662	9774	61	3.31
Larry Fitzgerald	4255	108	39.4	635	8835	65	3.13
Calvin Johnson	3801	92	41.3	488	7836	54	2.99

As you can see, it’s silly to compare someone like Warfield to Torry Holt or Wes Welker or Calvin Johnson. In fact, it’s hard to compare him to anyone. Even Otis Taylor — another Hall of Fame (caliber) receiver from the same era who played on good teams — saw three more pass attempts per game. John Stallworth played for great Steelers teams that rarely passed, but even they don’t come close to approximating the situation Warfield was in. If we grade the players by their number of Adjusted Catch Yards (20*RecTDs + 5*Rec + RecYds) per Attempt, Warfield all the sudden looks pretty good. He’s only behind Lance Alworth — who played in the AFL — Jerry Rice, and a bunch of receivers from the ’90s or later.

Here’s another way to look at things. During Warfield’s seven best seasons, he played in 103 career games (including the postseason). The next table divides all games into five-pass buckets. Warfield played five games where his team threw between 6 and 10 passes, 8 games with 11 to 15 passes, and a whopping 31 additional games of 20 or fewer passes. I also calculated a weight-averaged of the number of attempts the player saw in these games (using the median number in each bucket) to provide a way to sort the list.

Name	WtAvg	6-10	11-15	16-20	21-25	26-30	31-35	36-40	41-45	46-50	51-55	56-60	61-65	Tot
Paul Warfield	22	5	8	31	25	22	10	2	0	0	0	0	0	103
Otis Taylor	25	1	9	14	32	20	14	7	2	0	0	0	0	99
Buddy Dial	25	0	2	14	18	22	8	2	0	0	0	0	0	66
Gene A. Washington	27	2	5	14	24	26	14	6	3	3	0	0	0	97
Fred Biletnikoff	26	1	4	20	24	22	14	10	4	0	0	0	0	99
Harold Jackson	26	1	7	15	30	24	13	10	1	1	0	0	0	102
Cliff Branch	28	1	7	16	17	20	18	7	9	3	0	0	0	98
Bob Hayes	27	0	5	14	28	24	18	6	3	1	0	0	0	99
John Gilliam	28	0	1	11	26	31	14	12	5	0	0	0	0	100
John Stallworth	28	1	3	10	25	36	17	12	7	0	0	0	0	111
Charley Taylor	29	0	4	18	17	18	18	11	5	5	0	0	0	96
Harold Carmichael	29	1	5	10	22	25	21	16	6	0	1	0	0	107
Stanley Morgan	29	1	4	8	18	24	18	13	4	0	3	0	0	93
Gary Garrison	29	0	2	2	20	30	10	13	3	1	1	0	0	82
Hines Ward	29	0	3	13	32	22	24	9	11	4	0	1	0	119
Steve Smith	30	1	2	13	19	29	27	13	6	3	0	0	1	114
Lance Alworth	31	0	0	5	21	16	19	19	1	1	2	0	0	84
Steve Largent	30	1	4	9	23	29	18	15	9	4	1	0	0	113
Michael Irvin	31	0	0	7	29	27	28	18	8	2	3	0	0	122
Andre Reed	31	0	4	8	21	28	24	14	10	5	4	1	0	119
Derrick Mason	31	1	0	8	25	23	26	18	10	4	1	0	0	116
James Lofton	31	1	3	5	17	18	35	20	4	1	2	0	0	106
Rod Smith	31	0	0	7	16	36	32	21	5	3	1	1	0	122
Henry Ellard	31	0	1	6	21	29	24	13	8	6	1	0	0	109
Art Monk	32	0	0	8	27	21	26	17	6	8	2	1	1	117
Gary Clark	33	0	0	5	21	30	22	20	5	7	3	1	2	116
Herman Moore	32	0	2	7	17	31	21	12	10	9	1	0	0	110
Cris Collinsworth	32	0	1	6	13	21	29	14	8	1	2	1	0	96
Brandon Marshall	33	0	1	4	12	19	22	16	10	7	0	0	0	91
Tim Brown	32	0	1	7	16	28	36	14	8	5	3	0	0	118
Don Maynard	33	0	1	7	14	17	17	12	11	5	3	0	1	88
Jimmy Smith	32	0	3	5	14	22	37	22	8	6	1	0	0	118
Terrell Owens	34	0	0	3	8	34	21	25	14	1	3	0	1	110
Chad Johnson	34	0	0	1	14	20	29	29	13	3	2	0	0	111
Roddy White	33	0	2	5	16	19	23	10	15	6	1	1	1	99
Andre Johnson	33	0	2	4	10	16	21	19	8	2	3	0	1	86
Andre Rison	34	0	1	3	14	20	29	18	14	10	1	0	0	110
Randy Moss	34	0	0	1	13	37	27	15	13	11	4	1	0	122
Marvin Harrison	35	0	0	3	7	25	35	24	13	10	4	0	0	121
Joe Horn	34	0	0	0	14	24	26	25	4	7	2	1	0	103
Jerry Rice	34	0	0	4	13	26	24	24	20	7	1	1	1	121
Reggie Wayne	36	0	0	2	4	23	23	27	17	7	3	2	0	108
Sterling Sharpe	35	0	1	4	11	19	26	25	19	2	6	1	0	114
Isaac Bruce	35	0	0	5	10	12	27	18	19	6	1	0	1	99
Cris Carter	36	0	0	2	9	24	34	18	17	10	4	1	1	120
Wes Chandler	37	0	2	3	7	7	22	25	21	11	2	1	1	102
Anquan Boldin	36	0	0	3	5	19	29	23	12	8	5	2	0	106
Wes Welker	36	1	0	0	6	19	25	21	18	6	3	0	1	100
Torry Holt	37	0	0	1	6	17	31	27	23	7	3	1	1	117
Larry Fitzgerald	37	0	0	0	5	23	27	24	16	11	6	2	0	114
Calvin Johnson	38	0	0	3	5	9	17	12	14	11	3	2	1	77

You start to get into really small sample size issues, but let me close with a look at how many receiving yards each receiver gained in each bucket:

Name	6-10	11-15	16-20	21-25	26-30	31-35	36-40	41-45	46-50	51-55	56-60	61-65
Paul Warfield	53	30	65	69	71	72	62	0	0	0	0	0
Otis Taylor	0	62	45	61	66	84	92	72	0	0	0	0
Buddy Dial	0	65	65	67	79	78	113	0	0	0	0	0
Gene A. Washington	26	39	49	53	71	52	100	59	58	0	0	0
Fred Biletnikoff	36	26	45	51	61	64	79	45	0	0	0	0
Harold Jackson	22	45	56	62	71	54	90	138	75	0	0	0
Cliff Branch	10	46	55	70	68	81	108	74	65	0	0	0
Bob Hayes	0	83	53	82	71	60	86	87	62	0	0	0
John Gilliam	0	17	63	62	54	56	94	81	0	0	0	0
John Stallworth	43	59	55	68	69	68	61	96	0	0	0	0
Charley Taylor	0	35	50	46	60	74	67	103	123	0	0	0
Harold Carmichael	28	39	43	53	65	58	78	96	0	89	0	0
Stanley Morgan	30	63	50	66	63	79	86	128	0	92	0	0
Gary Garrison	0	34	48	65	63	72	81	108	38	128	0	0
Hines Ward	0	24	39	61	72	71	79	111	113	0	76	0
Steve Smith	0	41	70	68	81	93	92	87	163	0	0	67
Lance Alworth	0	0	70	74	103	105	111	213	33	115	0	0
Steve Largent	0	54	50	69	84	81	67	81	71	96	0	0
Michael Irvin	0	0	59	87	84	94	72	94	122	132	0	0
Andre Reed	0	37	57	74	76	62	52	111	67	90	34	0
Derrick Mason	8	0	44	57	71	82	66	88	94	78	0	0
James Lofton	10	75	60	78	74	66	93	123	43	50	0	0
Rod Smith	0	0	46	53	78	81	75	92	103	208	187	0
Henry Ellard	0	17	34	60	76	82	79	111	122	120	0	0
Art Monk	0	0	71	52	59	79	82	91	93	69	150	29
Gary Clark	0	0	50	74	62	74	89	73	87	64	116	139
Herman Moore	0	31	71	75	77	71	83	93	91	133	0	0
Cris Collinsworth	0	63	43	65	59	75	81	81	141	37	156	0
Brandon Marshall	0	71	26	61	53	71	74	96	89	0	0	0
Tim Brown	0	33	68	68	63	80	92	91	101	158	0	0
Don Maynard	0	32	50	75	81	90	95	113	131	103	0	148
Jimmy Smith	0	27	69	80	74	84	83	83	133	65	0	0
Terrell Owens	0	0	56	84	75	91	75	124	25	115	0	166
Chad Johnson	0	0	48	89	74	76	84	95	115	93	0	0
Roddy White	0	29	46	45	63	85	67	98	77	62	146	127
Andre Johnson	0	11	52	83	79	90	102	90	90	105	0	140
Andre Rison	0	49	34	59	57	64	76	93	104	76	0	0
Randy Moss	0	0	118	97	81	83	79	108	96	75	89	0
Marvin Harrison	0	0	75	83	94	86	85	80	96	143	0	0
Joe Horn	0	0	0	71	62	72	76	108	102	71	81	0
Jerry Rice	0	0	55	80	82	106	95	98	132	86	204	117
Reggie Wayne	0	0	64	60	64	82	87	66	120	85	120	0
Sterling Sharpe	0	43	56	69	52	70	79	95	97	83	74	0
Isaac Bruce	0	0	65	91	63	87	92	103	95	170	0	136
Cris Carter	0	0	26	52	74	69	87	88	79	88	151	61
Wes Chandler	0	34	42	50	71	82	71	79	81	109	88	10
Anquan Boldin	0	0	9	46	57	67	87	99	101	107	91	0
Wes Welker	26	0	0	58	69	62	54	96	123	117	0	38
Torry Holt	0	0	189	70	93	89	74	96	80	79	125	84
Larry Fitzgerald	0	0	0	56	78	76	87	91	87	105	139	0
Calvin Johnson	0	0	59	87	65	69	62	82	97	128	153	81

Tagged as: Paul Warfield, WR Project

{ 10 comments… read them below or add one }

Sunrise089 March 12, 2013 at 3:16 am

Sounds to me like his teams would have passed more if they had a WR1 that have them better looks Not REALLY, but I do wonder about that considering your discussion about Brandon Marshal’s targets alone being an indicator of value.

It’s certainly welcome to have the discussion, but the work above notwithstanding, I think the simpler “they had to induct someone and top players on good team are as good as anyone” explanation is still more persuasive.

Chase Stuart March 12, 2013 at 9:19 am: I think if Warfield wasn’t a first-ballot choice, the “have to induct someone” argument would hold more water.

Reply

Tim Truemper March 12, 2013 at 8:08 am

Table 3 is particularily illustrative. It shows that even when Warfield was in a game in which his team threw the ball 6 to 10 times you see yardage productivity that most other receivers did not. Amazing. One thing I recall (and I know its only anecdotal) was how the Dolphins would infrequently pass but Warfield would come up with a crucial big yardage catch. Not withstanding Sunrise089′s comments, I don’t think Warfield was just someone to pic for the HOF “because they had to induct someone….” As been aptly shown in so many articles for the HOF on this website and PFR, many seemingly deserving players get passed over. Warfield as a WR with lower level raw stats is a case where more subtle indicators supported his early entry. Also, I think the analysis above validates the subjective judgments of those who watched Paul Warfield play that he was a stellar WR on very good teams thrughout his career. It should be noted that he played in 4 NFL championship games with the Browns before going to the Dolphins (1964, 65, 68, 69) that along with his Superbowl appearances with Miami of 1971, 72 and 73 give him quite a legacy in playoff lore. A god triva question would be how did Warfield leave Cleveland to Miami and what WR did they acquire in this trade that took his place?

I would like to add a couple of notes, one factual and one interpretive. The picture above cites that Warfield played for Paul Brown. At Cleveland he played for Blanton Collier. Also, I think the comparison of Stallworth is helpful but by the time Stallworth became a starter for Pittsburg in 1977, the Steelers were average to higher in the league for pass attempts and completions per game. The “dead ball” era was also starting to wane as Stallworth’s role grew at Pittsburgh. Plus, in Stallworth’s career, he benefitted from the rule changes that started in 1978 (warfield was retired) that began to signficantly escalate passing #’s. This includes Stallworth participating in a good part of his career a 16 game schedule which Warfield never did. Thus, Chase’s tables above show the value of relative comparison over just raw #’s which are pleasing to the cursory eye but not especially fair in estimating player quality across different times and situations.

Chase Stuart March 12, 2013 at 9:20 am: Great stuff, Tim. Thanks for this — and good catch on Paul Brown.

Reply

mrh March 12, 2013 at 10:20 am

As much as Chiefs fans would like it to be untrue, Otis Taylor is NOT in the HoF.

From ’64-’74, Warfield played with at least one HoF RB – Jim Brown, Leroy Kelly, Larry Csonka – and one HoF lineman – Gene Hickerson, Jim Langer, Larry Little. Leaving aside his HoF QB in Miami, he was playing on teams with strong running games and pass blocking. Those things certainly helped his numbers, especially his yards per reception (realizing that elite receivers had very high YPRs in that era). From watching him as a kid (and then Colts fan), I definitely thought he was a HoF WR and was not happy when he went to Miami. But he was in a very good spot to put up the numbers he did.

Chase Stuart March 12, 2013 at 10:32 am

This is what happens when work gets too busy for me to spend significant time researching! I thought Taylor was a HOFer and he’s probably a snub — he ranked #30 on my list. Thanks for pointing that out.

And yes, Warfield certainly benefited from a great supporting cast. But that supporting cast hurt him when it came time to racking up the numbers. I suspect if we run the numbers, Warfield’s game script averages were absurd.

mrh March 12, 2013 at 10:45 am: Yeah, it’s true a supporting cast cuts both ways.

Otis needs you to make his case for the Veteran’s Committee!

Reply

BLACKnBLUEnGOLD March 14, 2013 at 10:38 am

It obviously wasn’t the intent of this article, but this is definitely the first time I’ve seen a good statistical argument for putting Hines Ward in the HOF. He put up Hall of Fame-ish numbers and a solid-ish ACY/Att playing on teams that thought it was the 70s and against teams that had been built to defend modern, pass-focused offenses.

Chase Stuart March 14, 2013 at 11:02 am

Yes, I also hit on Ward’s case for the same reasons here: http://www.footballperspective.com/the-greatest-wide-receivers-ever-version-2-0-part-iii-career-rankings/

BLACKnBLUEnGOLD March 14, 2013 at 11:42 am: Yes, you certainly did. I guess that just proves that I should have been reading this website sooner.

Cris Carter’s case comes across as weaker in this analysis than the other one, which is fine by me. I’m sick of all this shrilling about “Cris Carter should be in the Hall of Fame!” Yeah, sure, Cris Carter should probably be in the Hall of Fame. I get it. You know who should really be in the HOF, though? About 20 more linemen. Then we can put Cris Carter in.

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Examining Paul Warfield’s career

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