Jameis Winston and Carson Wentz provide an interesting pair of quarterbacks to evaluate by age. Winston was the first pick in the 2015 Draft, while Wentz was the second pick in the 2016 Draft. And yet Winston is actually one year younger than Wentz, meaning he entered the NFL at an age two years younger than the Eagles star.

It actually becomes more confusing if you look at their ages on Pro-Football-Reference, since that page makes Wentz looks three years older. That’s because Wentz was born at the end of the year (12/30/1992) while Winston was born at the beginning of the year (1/6/1994). So in 2018, PFR lists Wentz at 26 years old, the age he was for just the last two days of the calendar year; meanwhile, Winston is listed at 24, even though he turned 25 just days after the season ended.

Wentz was born 372 days before Winston, making him almost exactly one year older. If we want to compare their seasons by age, we shouldn’t use age as of 12/31, which is an arbitrary cut-off that masks the real age difference between the two quarterbacks. Instead, we should use each passer’s age at the start of each football season. And, you will soon see, Winston has been the better quarterback for 5 of those 6 ages, beginning when both players entered college.

Age 19 season

In 2013, Winston won the Heisman Trophy at just 19 years old. He was the youngest player to ever win the award, although he’s since been passed by Lamar Jackson, who was born on January 7th. Wentz was a freshman backup quarterback at North Dakota State.

Advantage: Winston.

Age 20 season

Winston had a worse season in 2014 than in 2013, but he still was a very good college quarterback in a major conference. Wentz remained a backup quarterback at NDSU.

Advantage: Winston.

Age 21 season

Winston was a rookie in the NFL in 2015 and a very good one (for a rookie). He was PFWA’s All-Rookie QB and finished in second place to Todd Gurley in the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year voting. Wentz had his best year in college in 2014 during his age 21 season, a monster year at North Dakota State that resulted in a national championship. But he wasn’t regarded even in the Missouri Valley National Conference as the best player — he wasn’t named a first-team or second-team quarterback (those honors went to Mark Iannotti, Tre Roberson, and Aaron Bailey; Wentz was an honorable mention). Given that Winston was a roughly average NFL quarterback at age 21, this is a no-brainer.

Advantage: Winston.

Age 22 Season

Winston is now a second-year quarterback in the NFL, and he’s a solid one.  His numbers are similar to what he produced as a rookie, although he had a better record.  But it doesn’t matter much how we rate Winston’s 2016 campaign: Wentz played just half of the season after breaking a bone in his throwing wrist.  He did return to help NDSU win its 5th straight national title, but being an average QB in the NFL is a lot more impressive than what Wentz did in 2015.

Advantage: Winston.

Age 23 season

Winston had arguably his best season in 2017, finishing 4th in the NFL in yards per attempt and 8th in ANY/A.  He was outstanding on third downs and one of the best downfield passers in the league. But due to the Bucs having the worst defense in the NFL, terrible special teams, and an ineffective running game, Tampa Bay went just 3-10 in games Winston started. It was a weird year, and while we could debate exactly just how good Winston was in 2017, there’s no debating that Winston in 2017 was better than Wentz in 2016.  As a rookie in the NFL, Wentz was about what you would expect for a rookie: he ranked 27th out of 31 qualifying passers in ANY/A, and had the worst touchdown rate in the NFL (2.6%). His numbers probably underrate how good Wentz was, but he was not yet a good NFL QB in 2016.

Advantage: Winston.

Age 24 season

Winston was inconsistent in 2018: he was certainly not good, but he was once again a roughly average quarterback.  Fans of Winston (which is mostly limited to Bucs and Seminoles fans) have to be discouraged that the Winston we saw in 2018 wasn’t much farther advanced than the Winston we saw in 2015.  Wentz, meanwhile, had the best season of his career during his age 24 (at the start of the season) campaign: he was nearly the league’s MVP: he posted an 11-2 record, went from worst to 1st in touchdown rate (7.5%), and ranked 6th in ANY/A.

Advantage: Wentz

Age 25 season

For Winston, that will be 2019, so it’s a wait and see situation.  Wentz was  good for 11 games in 2018, finishing 12th in ANY/A and posting a 5-6 record.

Advantage: TBD

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So what does this all mean? Yes, Winston was better as a 19-year-old quarterback than Wentz, and he was better at ages 20, 21, 22, and 23.  Wentz was better at 24, and the age-25 battle will be finalized this season.  But with Wentz receiving a mega contract extension last night, it is interesting to compare him to a player he’s rarely compared to in Winston.

We can also think about this with Marcus Mariota, who was born on October 30, 1993, making him about two months older than Winston (and ten months younger than Wentz).

Like Winston, he was 19-years-old at the start of the 2013 college football season.  And that year he was outstanding. Wentz was a backup.

At age 20, he won the Heisman. Wentz was a backup.

At age 21 — the year Wentz had his big year at NDSU — Mariota was a slightly below-average NFL quarterback.  That’s still a big step up from being a great quarterback at the FCS level.

At age 22, in 2016, Mariota had his best year as a pro, and this would be the 4th straight year he was clearly better than Wentz at that age.

At age 23, in 2017, Mariota was inconsistent and ranked 22nd in ANY/A.  But he did helped the Titans make the playoffs and win a game, and I suspect most would say that Mariota 2017 was probably a better quarterback than Wentz 2016.

At age 24, in 2018, Mariota struggled significantly when it came to sacks, and was solid elsewhere.  But no matter: he was much worse than Wentz 2017.

And Mariota is 25 now, and will be 25 at the start of the 2019 season.

Players like Mariota and Winston feel like they have been around forever, and in part because they have: both were national names in 2013. In fact, both were national names in 2012: Mariota led Oregon to an outstanding season where the Ducks finished 2nd in the AP Poll, while Winston was the top QB prospect in the nation. We’ve been hearing about those two quarterbacks for seven years. Meanwhile, for many, Wentz didn’t become a name until the 2016 draft season.

But Wentz is a full year older than Winston and 10 months older than Winston.   Quarterbacks mature and grow at different ages, but in general, most quarterbacks are better at 24 than 23, at 25 than 24, and at 26 than 25.  Russell Wilson is five years older than Mariota and Winston; he had just completed his rookie season when he was the age that Mariota and Winston are now.

In other words: while we think we know a lot about Mariota and Winston — two quarterbacks who admittedly seemed to have plateaued more than grown — it’s worth remembering that most quarterbacks are not finished products by the time they are 25 years old. Winston has spent his entire NFL career under Dirk Koetter, which may not be a good thing: we should find out more this year with him and Bruce Arians.  For Mariota, as he enters his 5th NFL season in 2019, he will have his 5th new offensive playcaller, and that sort of inconsistency can stunt a young quarterback’s growth.  For both quarterbacks, 2019 will be a huge year, but studies like this help  remind me of how young these two are. By way of comparison, Aaron Rodgers (who is 10 years older than both) had won 6 games in the NFL when he was the age that Mariota and Winston are now.