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Checkdowns: How the Ravens and 49ers compare to previous Super Bowl teams

by Chase Stuart on January 31, 2013

in Checkdowns, History

Ever wondered which Super Bowl teams were the oldest or youngest? I went and calculated the AV-adjusted age of every team to appear in the Super Bowl. (AV stands for Pro-Football-Reference’s Approximate Value system, which assigns an approximate value to each player in each season; you can read more about it here.) You can probably guess who the oldest team was, but the youngest might be a bit of a surprise. Baltimore and San Francisco both come in roughly in the middle of the pack, with the Ravens slightly older than the 49ers. This also jives with Football Outsiders’ snap-adjusted ages article.

Bill Barnwell wrote a good article yesterday summarizing the success of Ozzie Newsome, the Baltimore Ravens general manager. That made me curious to see what percentage (based on AV, not total players, naturally) of the players on each Super Bowl team had never before played for another team. Great general managers do more than build their teams through the draft (and Barnwell specifically praised Newsome for that, including the trade for Anquan Boldin), but the question of what percentage of the team is “homegrown” is still an interesting one.

For the Ravens, 73% of their players (as measured by AV) have never played for another team, with Boldin, Cary Williams, Jacoby Jones, Bryant McKinnie, Matt Birk, Bernard Pollard, Corey Graham, and Vontae Leach being some notable exceptions. On the other side, 75% of the 49ers have only worn the red and gold, although Justin Smith, Jonathan Goodwin, Randy Moss, Donte Whitner, Carlos Rogers, Mario Manningham (at least, in the regular season) were key contributors who are not home-grown 49ers.

When it comes to AV-adjusted age or measuring how ‘home-grown’ each team is, neither team really stands out from the pack. The ’78 and ’79 Steelers featured 22 starters that were all home-grown, although making placekicker Roy Gerela the lone outlier (and since AV does not include kickers, both Pittsburgh teams were at 100%).

In addition to the AV-adjusted ages and “home-grownness” of each Super Bowl participant, the table below includes where each team (since 1970) ranked in points for, points allowed, yards, and yards allowed, and whether or not the team won the game. The table is fully sortable and searchable, and the rows for San Francisco and Baltimore will remain highlighted after sorting.

Year
Tm
Age
Home
PF
PA
Yds
YdsA
W/L
2012SFO27.175112113
2012BAL27.87310121617
2011NYG26.977925827W
2011NWE27.862315231L
2010GNB27.28410295W
2010PIT28.377121142L
2009IND27.19378918L
2009NOR27.457120125W
2008PIT2878201221W
2008ARI27.767328419L
2007NYG27.3691417167W
2007NWE28.2651414L
2006IND27.495223321W
2006CHI27.36823155L
2005PIT27.38093154W
2005SEA27.75917216L
2004NWE27.9664279W
2004PHI27.46682910L
2003NWE28.166121177W
2003CAR27601510168L
2002TAM28.463181241W
2002OAK30.14326111L
2001STL27.9581713L
2001NWE27.854661924W
2000NYG27.671155135L
2000BAL27.953141162W
1999TEN27.3787151317L
1999STL26.5691416W
1998DEN29.55428311W
1998ATL28.8484478L
1997GNB27.7692547L
1997DEN29.1501615W
1996NWE26.169214719L
1996GNB27.7621151W
1995DAL28.4833359W
1995PIT27.4715963L
1994SFO28.6661628W
1994SDG27.157591114L
1993BUF28.58475627L
1993DAL26.68322410W
1992BUF28.488314212L
1992DAL26.4712541W
1991BUF28.282219127L
1991WAS28.6631243W
1990BUF27.1841668L
1990NYG27.383151172W
1989SFO27.5901314W
1989DEN26.88881153L
1988CIN26.695116115L
1988SFO27947823W
1987WAS26.78546318W
1987DEN26.6854729L
1986DEN27.499615159L
1986NYG279282102W
1985NWE27.59610697L
1985CHI26.7882171W
1984MIA26.99117119L
1984SFO27.67921210W
1983WAS27.475111312L
1983RAI27.97031374W
1982MIA26.891102191L
1982WAS26.77712174W
1981CIN26.697312212L
1981SFO25.97572132W
1980PHI27.7776182L
1980OAK27.9577101611W
1979PIT28.31001512W
1979RAM27.2881511137L
1978PIT27.81005183W
1978DAL27.5971322L
1977DAL27.2952811W
1977DEN26.981103179L
1976OAK28.181412218W
1976MIN29689266L
1975DAL27.6968935L
1975PIT26.7955274W
1974PIT26956281W
1974MIN28.26853310L
1973MIA27.2765193W
1973MIN28.96092712L
1972MIA26.8711111W
1972WAS29.25073114L
1971DAL28.4841713W
1971MIA25.9734355L
1970DAL27.58610444L
1970BAL27.3816789W
1969KAN27.390W
1969MIN27.568L
1968NYJ26.486W
1968BAL28.473L
1967GNB28.881W
1967OAK26.554L
1966KAN26.786L
1966GNB28.776W

{ 16 comments… read them below or add one }

Danish January 31, 2013 at 11:34 am

The narrative of the back-to-back Broncos was that they were a team of veteran castoffs from other teams. This is supported by these numbers.

In case anyone is interested: A regression of “Home” on “Year” gives a coefficient of -0.331 with a p-value of 0.0014 and R^2 of 0,106. Free agency, folks.

Reply

Chase Stuart January 31, 2013 at 12:50 pm

I guess I don’t remember that as the narrative. I think of them as based around players like Elway, TD, Sharpe, Nalen, Atwater, and Rod Smith, all of whom were homegrown players. But yeah, players like Tony Jones, Harry Swayne, McCaffrey, and Romanowski were vets brought in from other teams. And, of course, their most important player was Mark Schlereth, and he started out in Washington.

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Danish January 31, 2013 at 1:50 pm

Never mind. Just checked the Americas Game episode, and the story is something like “Nobody wanted these guys, but Shanahan made ‘em work together”. This way the narrative (which may be in hindsight) can include low-round draftpicks (Nalen, TD, Sharpe, Rod Smith).

I’ve only known of the NFL since 2006, so everything i know of football before that is second hand.

Reply

Richie January 31, 2013 at 4:53 pm

If you sort the chart by home-grownness, of the 40 most home-grown teams, 37 of them came before free agency (I forget exactly when free agency started, but I think about 1994. The 93 Bills and 95 Cowboys are in that list of 40 teams, but the cores of those teams were built before free agency.) The only 3 recent teams to have a high HOME rating were the two Indianapolis teams and the 2010 Packers.

Reply

willgfass January 31, 2013 at 12:46 pm

For the 2007/2011 Giants, is it fair to assume Manning is included as a “home grown” player, since you said never played for another team, and not drafted by that team, as some people would put?

Reply

Chase Stuart January 31, 2013 at 12:47 pm

That is correct.

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Chase Stuart January 31, 2013 at 1:14 pm

There are many reasons not to calculate the average of the four ranks, but I will note that if you do that, the ’11 Giants are the worst SB team by far, with the ’12 Ravens and ’01 Patriots as the next worst. Ironically, of course, the Giants and Pats both won; the next two worse teams are the ’08 Cardinals and ’07 Giants, followed by the ’99 Titans. None of them performed too badly in the SB, either.

I think even those without a calculator can figure out which team would have the best average of the ranks.

Reply

Randy Marcus January 31, 2013 at 3:45 pm

Dumb question, but what does AV stand for?

Reply

Chase Stuart January 31, 2013 at 3:48 pm

Not a dumb question, as I sometimes forget that not everyone is a long-time reader.

AV stands for PFR’s Approximate Value system: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?page_id=518

I’ll edit the post to make that clear. Thanks.

Reply

Randy Marcus January 31, 2013 at 3:57 pm

Thanks for the clarification. Great content and love the statistical detail. Look forward to being a long-time reader.

Reply

Chase Stuart January 31, 2013 at 3:58 pm

Much appreciated. We’re a pretty friendly group here.

Reply

Richie January 31, 2013 at 4:51 pm

I was going to guess the 1970 Colts as the oldest team, but they are mid-pack. The ’68 Colts were much older.

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Arjun January 31, 2013 at 6:37 pm

Wasn’t free agency much more restricted in the era in which the Steelers played? I seem to recall that at least in Lombardi’s time, the team had full and permanent rights to a player for as long as they wanted them and that the more liberal free agency didn’t happen until sometime in the 1980s or 1990s? Is there perhaps a good demarcation for “modern free agency” to compare “homegrownness” in apples-to-apples manner?

Reply

Chase Stuart January 31, 2013 at 6:40 pm

Yes, Arjun. As Richie mentioned, free agency began in 1993, with Reggie White signing with the Packers that year. Trades were much more common during the earlier eras, however.

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Arjun January 31, 2013 at 6:48 pm

Ah yes, I missed that comment by Richie. I think that a big reason that (top) teams might have fewer homegrown players is being unable to afford all the talent they bring in through the draft. Even if trades were more common back then, they were still going to be trades of convenience (filling needs by dealing players they didn’t consider integral) rather than, say, no longer being able to afford Joe Greene.

Reply

Chase Stuart January 31, 2013 at 7:02 pm

Yes, absolutely. We won’t see any teams like the late ’70s Steelers again.

Reply

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