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Checkdowns: College Football QB ANY/A, 2014

Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt is the basic measure I use to measure quarterback performance. ANY/A, of course, is calculated as follows:

(Passing Yards + 20*PassingTDs – 45*INTs – SackYardsLost) / (Sacks + Attempts)

Finding college football sack data is notoriously challenging, but ESPN does at least list sack numbers (but not sack yardage lost) for quarterback. But if we assume each quarterback loses 6.7 yards per sack1, then we can calculated estimated ANY/A. And we can also calculate estimated value.

This year in college football, the average ANY/A is 6.13. Let’s use Oregon’s Marcus Mariota as an example. The Heisman frontrunner has thrown for 2,780 yards and 29 touchdowns on 277 attempts, while being sacked 23 times and throwing just two interceptions. As a result, Mariota has an ANY/A of 10.39. That’s 4.26 ANY/A above average, and over the course of Mariota’s 300 dropbacks, that means he’s provided 1,278 of Adjusted Net Yards of value over average. As it turns out, that’s the most in college football. The table below is fully sortable and searchable, and it lists the 172 quarterbacks this season with at least 50 pass attempts:

1Marcus MariotaORE18627727802922310.391278
2Garrett GraysonCSU2043113024265209.621157
3Cody KesslerUSC2383392919293228.911005
4Jared GoffCAL2624193398304238.29956
5Brandon DoughtyWKU2844253507318178.26945
6Rakeem CatoMRSH1682842613267119.3937
7Zach TerrellWMU1932772668196139.28914
8Blake SimsALA170276245418379.3898
9Connor CookMSU159274246619589.1839
10Bryce PettyBAY1642832421213138.85805
11J.T. BarrettOSU1652582356298208.78739
12Gunner KielCIN1682792485241078.63716
13Trevone BoykinTCU2293863021245177.85693
14Kenny HillTA&M2143212649238157.88590
15Shane CardenECU2634183216205197.47586
16Brad KaayaMIA16026724032210148.18577
17Jake WatersKSU1882952569145207.9560
18Kale PearsonAFA86140134213299.74539
19Connor HallidayWSU35452638733211207.11538
20Deshaun WatsonCLEM791181197122810.27521
21Dak PrescottMSST17328725212010157.85520
22Bo WallaceMISS1902972554228237.75519
23Justin ThomasGT75145139615499.45512
24Everett GolsonND22737430442712217.35483
25Brett HundleyUCLA2203052547174297.52466
26Drew HareNIU141230172014178.05456
27Jameis WinstonFSU22133628441812147.34426
28Gary NovaRUTG13923922121610167.74412
29Seth RussellBAY406872271012.01400
30Blake FrohnapfelUMASS24143733452310226.99395
31Wes LuntILL1412161671143107.74364
32Nick MarshallAUB125210168814587.75354
33Grant HedrickBSU23032227951713187.15346
34Dylan ThompsonSC21736127942210187.03341
35Taylor HeinickeODU22836728922511247340
36Driphus JacksonRICE1412451960154197.4335
37Cody SokolLT20033725132410146.98298
38Hutson MasonUGA1502221638163137.39296
39Clint TrickettWVU28141932851810266.79294
40Mike BercoviciASU101164132210377.84292
41Trevor KnightOKLA162279219714967.13286
42Cooper RushCMU1912932416189237.02281
43Marquise WilliamsUNC2343692773208226.82270
44Davis WebbTTU2113452539241346.9269
45Anu SolomonARIZ2564413058257226.69259
46Joe LicataBUFF20431823922511156.9256
47Taylor LambAPP157253196313787.1255
48Will GardnerLOU1272211669123137.21253
49Paxton LynchMEM1953032299126136.9246
50Darell GarretsonUSU9113511408397.67222
51Joshua DobbsTENN61997907228.18208
52Luke FalkWSU841209038177.65193
53Treon HarrisFLA33565654159.29193
54Jaquez JohnsonFAU1522631778153126.77178
55Travis WilsonUTAH1322211558132166.84169
56Cyler MilesWASH1512291627122176.76156
57Brandon AllenARK1602761905155116.64148
58Michael CummingsKU113195149273136.78135
59Phillip ElyTOL41685414128.04134
60Taylor KellyASU1131971498145176.72128
61Kent MyersUSU43575314178.11127
62Nick ArbuckleGAST21435428121912286.45124
63Cody ClementsUAB1542281910118206.6116
64Kevin EllisonGASO631098655347.11111
65Jake RudockIOWA1722691863124136.51108
66Logan WoodsideTOL151252177314776.53104
67Tommy Armstrong Jr.NEB1282481889149126.4890
68Jacoby BrissettNCST1973332278195246.3685
69Chad VoytikPITT1362201688126186.4679
70Kevin HoganSTAN1872932155157216.3775
71Lamar JordanUNM50946995256.8269
72Andrew HendrixM-OH2074203062228396.2868
73Caleb RoweMD34544895417.3165
74Justin HolmanUCF14525520091610206.3560
75Tyler JonesTXST2203442403207266.2547
76C.J. BeathardIOWA39695003146.6941
77Chad ChalichIDHO36644912216.6836
78Derrius VickOHIO8414210356396.3634
79Austin GrammerMTU19229522981510246.2333
80Munchie LegauxCIN41624063126.3715
81Matt JohnsUVA8615610448516.1910
82Nate SudfeldIND10116711516386.1910
83Patrick MahomesTTU52946216266.11-2
84Fredi KnightenARST2313802578175296.11-7
85Johnny McCraryVAN611148069626.06-8
86Taysom HillBYU8813297573146.07-8
87Blake JurichSJSU52816295455.99-11
88Dontreal PruittTROY44775331145.94-15
89Kyle AllenTA&M7913088411585.98-20
90Dajon WilliamsUNT46776077495.89-20
91Sean MannionORST2333682688127306.06-27
92Christian StewartBYU1402441633135175.95-45
93Jameill ShowersUTEP122219141711595.93-45
94Reggie BonnafonLOU519266241155.57-59
95Joel StaveWIS571046886455.45-73
96Joe GraySJSU2013172215109115.9-73
97Keenan ReynoldsNAVY429270753155.34-84
98Brandon SilversTROY162237156083175.79-85
99Mitch LeidnerMINN881711310108155.64-90
100Ozzie MannBALL921619476275.54-99
101Terrel HuntSYR831459831435.43-104
102Grant RohachISU27542832144.33-104
103Mike WhiteUSF90182128887105.55-110
104Steven BenchUSF36764662254.72-114
105Mitch TrubiskyUNC29563143314.08-117
106Angel SantiagoARMY336444011114.55-118
107Tyrone SwoopesTEX1913252152126205.76-126
108Nick MullensUSM1943232207119145.72-137
109Patrick TowlesUK2113632542147335.77-141
110Greg Ward Jr.HOU102145100565125.22-142
111Brandon BridgeUSA1192311457104175.5-156
112Anthony JenningsLSU92192135396195.38-157
113Terrance BroadwayULL1552591771129145.54-161
114Cody FajardoNEV2093392202149135.65-167
115Brandon ConnetteFRES29532992343.11-172
116Kendal ThompsonUTAH325232422103.34-173
117Dane EvansTLSA21339026452012235.69-180
118Tanner McEvoyWIS651127095634.51-186
119Jack MilasBALL10419211337555.15-193
120Colby KirkegaardWYO1743012214118335.55-194
121Chandler WhitmerCONN1212141471116255.24-211
122Stephen RiversVAN25633340322.86-213
123Andrew McNultyUNT7814090945104.65-222
124Nick MontanaTULN42723001213.06-224
125JD SpragueOHIO94194118333124.99-235
126Reginald Bell Jr.EMU6111276944174.3-235
127Sefo LiufauCOLO29845328422614155.62-236
128Quinn KaehlerSDSU137235165689175.15-247
129Alex McGoughFIU1272491624147255.19-257
130Sam B. RichardsonISU1883231938146185.36-262
131Josh GreerUNT24501710241-277
132Maty MaukMIZZ15629417841910155.22-280
133James KnapkeBGSU22539625141210135.42-289
134Matt DavisSMU558952123143.23-299
135Anthony BooneDUKE2213912232167115.38-300
136Cole WeeksUSM5911276125153.74-303
137Austin ApplebyPUR9918910758694.57-309
138Tyler MurphyBC1011841293910164.58-310
139Reilly O'TooleILL6311474556153.68-316
140Chuckie KeetonUSU51924262432.8-316
141Tommy WoodsonAKR761438065664-317
142Greyson LambertUVA12220412758994.55-335
143Tucker CarterUTSA7813880625103.74-353
144Daxx GarmanOKST15227720411212314.98-354
145Wade FreebeckVAN34723761571.57-360
146Kyle PohlAKR191340199896155.09-368
147Cole StoudtCLEM145235144458114.51-397
148Brian BurrellFRES16828917691610224.8-414
149AJ LongSYR7212872746133.19-414
150Danny EtlingPUR8916280065113.59-439
151Montell CozartKU6412870157112.97-439
152Justin WorleyTENN1572521579128294.5-457
153Rob BoldenEMU419539945111.7-469
154Zander DiamontIND388128213111.01-470
155Michael BrewerVT21835622371512234.86-479
156Austin RobinsonUTSA7312658514112.56-488
157John O'KornHOU8917294468113.44-491
158Pete ThomasULM2384062524115415.02-495
159Tyler RogersNMSU2253612363152044.76-500
160Devin GardnerMICH1392271557813194.08-503
161Blake DeckerUNLV20034925281015334.8-509
162C.J. BrownMD1472791723119274.43-518
163Colin ReardonKENT20035521681215104.56-570
164Tanner LeeTULN14426015521213154.02-579
165P.J. WalkerTEM16430818661214164.22-616
166Jeff DriskelFLA9718492861092.79-645
167Garrett KrstichSMU9617484926162.69-652
168Ikaika WoolseyHAW1733542060910294.17-751
169Matt LinehanIDHO20034123191017373.98-810
170Trevor SiemianNW2213802121610303.88-922
171Christian HackenbergPSU2073732318714373.85-932
172John WolfordWAKE1722991626913342.98-1047
  • It’s important to remember that much more so than in the NFL, strength of schedule is a significant variable in all college football analysis. That is completely ignored here. In addition, coaching and scheme matter more, too, and that is not considered in this analysis. This is simply a quick and dirty look at the numbers.
  • Jameis Winston checks in only at #27. This is not because ANY/A is a bad way to measure quarterback play — in fact, Winston ranked 2nd in the SOS-adjusted version of this last year, while averaging 10.2 ANY/A. He’s had a down year, at least statistically.
  • Down at the very bottom of the list, in second to last place? Penn State’s Christian Hackenberg. It’s been a rough year for the Nittany Lions offense, as the offensive line is in shambles. Hackenberg, considered to be a possible first round pick in 2016, will need to put together a much better season statistically in 2015 if he wants to keep that dream alive.
  1. Based on the results here. []
  • Matt Mills

    In CFBit may be important to take in to account rushing plays as well. You wouldn’t have to worry about counting sacks or sack yardage lost since it would get thrown in to the total yards. The weightings may not work out exactly (does a yard of passing equal the same as a yard of rushing? What about touchdowns?) but it could be interesting with all of the running college quarterbacks do.

    • Chase Stuart

      I hear ya, Matt. I always find it tricky to incorporate rushing stats for QBs, but I understand where you are coming from. It’s an interesting idea, and it’s also something ESPN does with its QBR.

  • Have you tried the Washington Post for sack yards? I helped a friend research college stuff (I don’t write about college), and I remember WP having sack data.

    • Chase Stuart

      Thanks, Brian. That’s good to know, but do they have a full list that’s easy to manipulate to come up with things like ANY/A and VALUE?

      • I’m tempted to call you Stuart, but I’ll pass 🙂

        From what I can tell, no way man. The WP is good for small projects comparing a handful of players. I had to go there to get sack yards and then go to CBS Sports to get fumble information. I am hoping CFB Reference will be able to get the info, because I am super interested in doing college-to-pro studies.

        • Chase Stuart

          Ah, sorry. I’m the worst!

          One thing that I am now intrigued by: how much control does a QB really have over his sack yardage lost per sack? Is that on the QB, or is that just randomness? Would we be better off using league average sack yardage in things like NY/A, which are supposed to be predictive?

          Or, perhaps, the opposite. Maybe sack yardage lost is super sticky. I don’t think I’ve ever investigated this before, and I’m not sure if anyone else has, either.

          • I looked into it a little when I was experimenting with estimating sacks and yards lost for older players. I didn’t notice a strong trend, but I wasn’t looking for one either. I’d be interested to see if there is any stickiness to yards/sack for coaches, since they can have such disparate schemes. I imagine the average Mike Martz QB probably lost more yards per sack than the average Andy Reid QB did.

          • Red

            Within a given season, it’s pretty much random from what I can tell (unless your name is Case Keenum, master of the 23 yard sack). But there’s no question that sacks are shorter in today’s NFL than they were in the 80’s and early 90’s. Back then, QB’s were almost always taking 7 step drops, so it makes sense that those sacks would lose more yardage.

  • Rob Pitzer

    As far as I can tell TD% above some fairly low threshold and INT% below a fairly average threshold don’t matter much, so ANY/A doesn’t really work as well for NCAA QBs. I suspect it’s because in college TDs are heavily receiver/offense/opponent driven, but haven’t really looked at that closely.

    On the other hand, sacks are a stone cold killer for pocket QBs (Hackenberg’s 10% sack rate this year is a HUGE problem) but fine for out and out running QBs. Interpreting a high sack rate for “run-around” QBs like Rodgers and Romo are mostly just a giant PITA to interpret and I think you’d have to resort to film to really get a grip on it for players like them.

  • Darnell

    That link doesn’t take us to an SOS-adjusted version of this list from last year.

  • Red

    I’m shocked that ANY/A in college (6.1) is lower than in the NFL (6.3). Seems like every week there’s a couple 59-56 type games, so I figured passing efficiency would be off the charts. I guess with 120+ teams, you’re gonna have a lot of bad QB’s.