There is no such thing as safe quarterback prospect, at least in this year’s draft.  There are five marquee prospects, with scouts and draftniks coming away with very different views on them. They are, of course

• Sam Darnold, Southern California (College Stats)
• Josh Rosen, UCLA (College Stats)
• Lamar Jackson, Louisville (College Stats)
• Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma (College Stats)
• Josh Allen, Wyoming (College Stats)

For months, it seemed like Darnold and Rosen were the top two prospects, Allen (huge size, great arm, poor accuracy) and Mayfield (great stats, efficient, but undersized and a B12 QB) were the wildcards, and Jackson was the real wildcard (Heisman Trophy winner, great stats, unmatched athleticism, but questions about his pro QB ability).

And now, with the draft hours away, we still don’t know much. Jackson probably will be the fifth quarterback taken. Allen, who as recently as a week ago was becoming the favorite to go first overall, will probably be the third or fourth man taken. Allen, on most boards on #DraftTwitter, is the worst of the group, but it’s always been impossible to tell what NFL scouts actually think of him (not to mention NFL non-scouts). Darnold and Allen almost seem cut from a video game: they are your prototypical successful Pac-12 QBs who are smart with good arms and size. They also don’t seem to excite too many people, although the upside is certainly there with Darnold (still just 20 years old) and Rosen (probably the smartest of the bunch).

And then you have Mayfield.

Statistically speaking, he was off the charts good in 2016 … and then even better in 2017. No, really. Here are the single-season yards per attempt leaders in college football history:

And the Adjusted Yards per Attempt leaders:

And the Passer Rating leaders:

The problem? There have been so many quarterbacks from the Big 12 who put up video game numbers – RG3, Bradford, Petty,  McCoy, Geno Smith, and Vince Young – and then underwhelmed in the pros.  Fair or not, the conference has a reputation for big passing numbers and little else.

Oh, and there’s one other thing (well, two if you count the “maturity” issues). Mayfield will be a first round pick, but at just 6’1, he will be just the 7th quarterback drafted in the first round since 1970 who stood under 6’2.  The first six were  Johnny Manziel (2014 – 22nd, Cleveland), Rex Grossman (2003 – 22nd, Bears), Michael Vick (2001 – 1st, Falcons) Cade McNown (1999 – 12th, Bears) Jim McMahon (1982 – 5th, Bears) Clint Longley (1974 – 1st, Bengals).  Going into the second round and the results haven’t been much better: Pat White (2009 – 44, Dolphins) Drew Brees (2001 – 32, Chargers — hey, a good one!) Marques Tuiasosopo (2001 – 59, Raiders) Shaun King (1999 – 50, Bucs) Kordell Stewart (1995 – 60, Steelers) Billy Joe Tolliver (1989 – 51, Chargers) Mike Kruczek (1976 – 47, Steelers), Gary Huff (1973 – 33, Bears) Pat Sullivan (1972 – 40, Falcons).

Of course everyone wants the next Russell Wilson, and Mayfield’s game certainly evokes memories of Wilson. But that is the exception and not the rule.

So what will the Browns do? Nobody knows for sure, even with the draft just six hours away. Mayfield, though, is the riskiest pick. From a scouting perspective, he was less heralded than Rosen or Darnold for nearly the entire process, and he doesn’t fit the “mold” of a traditional quarterback. The safe pick would be Darnold, and safe picks are safe picks for a reason. But for a team that has been floundering for two decades, rolling the dice might just be the smartest move.