Biggest Covers In Vegas History (1978-2016)

by Chase Stuart on July 8, 2017

Last week, I noted that the Colts/Vikings game was the least-conforming game of the 2016 season. Here’s what I wrote then:

The Colts were 0.2 points per game better than average last year, as measured by the Simple Rating System (which takes the points scored and allowed in each game, and adjusts for opponent strength and home field advantage).

The Vikings were 0.9. points per game better than average in 2016, and hosted the Colts in week 15. Given those facts, we would expect Minnesota to have won by 3.7 points. Instead, Indianapolis upset the Vikings, 34-6, beating the expected line by 31.7 points. That was the least-conforming game of 2016.

Well, it wasn’t just the SRS that found that game to be pretty odd. Our friends in the desert expected the Vikings to win by 5 points, which means the Colts covered the point spread by a whopping 33 points. Two weeks earlier, Indianapolis was actually an underdog in a Monday Night Football game that you would have had to been an idiot to attend in person. The Colts were 1-point underdogs, but won by 31 points, giving Indianapolis a 32-point cover. Those were two of the three biggest covers of the year, with the Eagles 34-3 win over Pittsburgh as 3.5 point underdogs (+34.5) being the biggest cover of 2016.

At Pro-Football-Reference.com, we have points spread data going back to 1978. Below are the biggest covers in history:

Rk	Year	Team	Opp	Wk	PF	PA	Pt Spread	Boxscore	Cover
1	2010	OAK	DEN	7	59	14	+7	10/24/10	52
2	1989	CIN	HOU	15	61	7	-3.5	12/17/89	50.5
3	2009	NWE	TEN	6	59	0	-9	10/18/09	50
4	1989	CLE	PIT	1	51	0	-2	09/10/89	49
5	2012	SEA	ARI	14	58	0	-10	12/09/12	48
5	1980	CHI	GNB	14	61	7	-6	12/07/80	48
7	2014	STL	OAK	13	52	0	-6	11/30/14	46
7	2005	GNB	NOR	5	52	3	-3	10/09/05	46
7	1999	OAK	TAM	15	45	0	+1	12/19/99	46
10	1979	NWE	NYJ	2	56	3	-8	09/09/79	45
10	1997	IND	MIA	16	41	0	+4	12/14/97	45
12	1996	STL	ATL	11	59	16	+1.5	11/10/96	44.5
12	1988	GNB	NWE	6	45	3	+2.5	10/09/88	44.5
12	1983	DET	PIT	13	45	3	+2.5	11/24/83	44.5
12	1997	NYJ	SEA	1	41	3	+6.5	08/31/97	44.5
16	1985	CHI	DAL	11	44	0	0	11/17/85	44
16	1988	NYJ	HOU	3	45	3	+2	09/18/88	44
16	1986	MIA	NYJ	12	45	3	+2	11/24/86	44
19	2004	KAN	ATL	7	56	10	-3.5	10/24/04	42.5
19	2001	NWE	IND	3	44	13	+11.5	09/30/01	42.5
21	2011	SFO	TAM	5	48	3	-3	10/09/11	42
22	2005	BAL	GNB	15	48	3	-3.5	12/19/05	41.5
23	2011	NOR	IND	7	62	7	-14	10/23/11	41
23	2013	CAR	NYG	3	38	0	+3	09/22/13	41
23	2012	TEN	MIA	10	37	3	+7	11/11/12	41
23	1994	PHI	SFO	5	40	8	+9	10/02/94	41
27	2009	CAR	NYG	16	41	9	+8.5	12/27/09	40.5
28	2002	KAN	ARI	13	49	0	-9	12/01/02	40
28	1984	SEA	KAN	10	45	0	-5	11/04/84	40
28	2013	PHI	CHI	16	54	11	-3	12/22/13	40
28	1996	NWE	SDG	14	45	7	+2	12/01/96	40
28	1987	TAM	ATL	1	48	10	+2	09/13/87	40
28	1990	SDG	NYJ	6	39	3	+4	10/14/90	40
28	2014	CAR	NOR	14	41	10	+9	12/07/14	40
35	1986	SEA	RAI	14	37	0	+2.5	12/08/86	39.5
35	1997	KAN	SFO	14	44	9	+4.5	11/30/97	39.5
35	2002	NYJ	SDG	9	44	13	+8.5	11/03/02	39.5
38	2005	SEA	PHI	13	42	0	-3	12/05/05	39
38	1990	BUF	CLE	9	42	0	-3	11/04/90	39
38	1978	MIA	BAL	2	42	0	-3	09/10/78	39
38	2009	SEA	JAX	5	41	0	-2	10/11/09	39
38	1980	PHI	MIN	2	42	7	+4	09/14/80	39
38	1979	SDG	NOR	15	35	0	+4	12/09/79	39
44	1987	SFO	RAM	16	48	0	-9.5	12/27/87	38.5
45	2010	NWE	NYJ	13	45	3	-4	12/06/10	38
45	1988	MIN	NOR	14	45	3	-4	12/04/88	38
45	2002	NWE	NYJ	2	44	7	+1	09/15/02	38
45	1996	NYG	DET	9	35	7	+10	10/27/96	38
49	1991	WAS	DET	1	45	0	-7.5	09/01/91	37.5
49	1981	PHI	STL	10	52	10	-4.5	11/08/81	37.5
49	2012	NOR	TAM	15	41	0	-3.5	12/16/12	37.5
49	2002	ATL	CAR	12	41	0	-3.5	11/24/02	37.5
49	1987	IND	BUF	4	47	6	-3.5	10/04/87	37.5
49	2002	CIN	HOU	9	38	3	+2.5	11/03/02	37.5
49	2011	BUF	KAN	1	41	7	+3.5	09/11/11	37.5
49	1995	DEN	NWE	6	37	3	+3.5	10/08/95	37.5
49	1993	NYG	WAS	6	41	7	+3.5	10/10/93	37.5
49	1992	MIA	BUF	5	37	10	+10.5	10/04/92	37.5
49	2008	MIA	NWE	3	38	13	+12.5	09/21/08	37.5
60	2012	GNB	TEN	16	55	7	-11	12/23/12	37
60	1999	PIT	CLE	1	43	0	-6	09/12/99	37
60	1988	NOR	DEN	12	42	0	-5	11/20/88	37
60	2007	SDG	DEN	5	41	3	-1	10/07/07	37
60	2009	CIN	CHI	7	45	10	+2	10/25/09	37
60	1992	MIN	CIN	4	42	7	+2	09/27/92	37
60	1981	SDG	OAK	12	55	21	+3	11/22/81	37
60	2013	STL	IND	10	38	8	+7	11/10/13	37
60	1987	HOU	DEN	4	40	10	+7	10/04/87	37
69	1983	CIN	HOU	10	55	14	-4.5	11/06/83	36.5
69	2011	HOU	TEN	7	41	7	+2.5	10/23/11	36.5
69	1995	SEA	OAK	16	44	10	+2.5	12/17/95	36.5
69	1994	RAI	DEN	3	48	16	+4.5	09/18/94	36.5
69	2015	SEA	ARI	17	36	6	+6.5	01/03/16	36.5
74	2011	DET	KAN	2	48	3	-9	09/18/11	36
74	1980	DAL	SFO	6	59	14	-9	10/12/80	36
74	2014	ATL	TAM	3	56	14	-6	09/18/14	36
74	1988	MIN	DAL	11	43	3	-4	11/13/88	36
74	2008	PHI	DAL	17	44	6	-2	12/28/08	36
74	1987	NOR	ATL	8	38	0	-2	11/01/87	36
74	2009	ATL	SFO	5	45	10	+1	10/11/09	36
74	1984	CHI	TAM	8	44	9	+1	10/21/84	36
74	1979	DEN	NWE	11	45	10	+1	11/11/79	36
74	1981	SFO	DAL	6	45	14	+5	10/11/81	36
74	1979	NOR	TAM	7	42	14	+8	10/14/79	36
85	2003	SFO	CHI	1	49	7	-6.5	09/07/03	35.5
85	1987	SFO	CHI	14	41	0	-5.5	12/14/87	35.5
85	2013	CIN	NYJ	8	49	9	-4.5	10/27/13	35.5
85	1985	NYJ	BUF	2	42	3	-3.5	09/15/85	35.5
85	2001	SFO	NOR	17	38	0	-2.5	01/06/02	35.5
85	2013	NWE	BAL	16	41	7	+1.5	12/22/13	35.5
85	1989	KAN	HOU	12	34	0	+1.5	11/26/89	35.5
85	1998	ATL	NWE	10	41	10	+4.5	11/08/98	35.5
85	1994	SEA	RAI	2	38	9	+6.5	09/11/94	35.5
85	2007	CHI	GNB	16	35	7	+7.5	12/23/07	35.5
95	2010	DET	STL	5	44	6	-3	10/10/10	35
95	2003	BAL	SFO	13	44	6	-3	11/30/03	35
95	1986	NYJ	SEA	9	38	7	+4	11/02/86	35
95	2001	WAS	NOR	16	40	10	+5	12/30/01	35
99	2008	NYJ	STL	10	47	3	-9.5	11/09/08	34.5
99	1983	GNB	TAM	5	55	14	-6.5	10/02/83	34.5
99	2002	KAN	STL	14	49	10	-4.5	12/08/02	34.5
99	2005	CHI	DET	2	38	6	+2.5	09/18/05	34.5
99	2016	PHI	PIT	3	34	3	+3.5	09/25/16	34.5
99	2014	NYG	WAS	4	45	14	+3.5	09/25/14	34.5
99	1983	NWE	BUF	8	31	0	+3.5	10/23/83	34.5
99	1982	GNB	ATL	16	38	7	+3.5	12/26/82	34.5
99	1983	CLE	NWE	12	30	0	+4.5	11/20/83	34.5
99	2012	ARI	DET	15	38	10	+6.5	12/16/12	34.5
109	1980	DAL	SEA	13	51	7	-10	11/27/80	34
109	2000	OAK	CAR	17	52	9	-9	12/24/00	34
109	2006	JAX	NYJ	5	41	0	-7	10/08/06	34
109	2006	KAN	SFO	4	41	0	-7	10/01/06	34
109	2005	PIT	CLE	16	41	0	-7	12/24/05	34
109	2000	DAL	ARI	8	48	7	-7	10/22/00	34
109	2000	TAM	CHI	2	41	0	-7	09/10/00	34
109	1994	SFO	ATL	7	42	3	-5	10/16/94	34
109	1981	DET	MIN	15	45	7	-4	12/12/81	34
109	2014	MIA	SDG	9	37	0	-3	11/02/14	34
109	2007	DET	DEN	9	44	7	-3	11/04/07	34
109	2012	ATL	NYG	15	34	0	0	12/16/12	34
109	2015	WAS	NOR	10	47	14	+1	11/15/15	34
109	2014	CAR	ATL	17	34	3	+3	12/28/14	34
109	2002	NWE	BUF	9	38	7	+3	11/03/02	34
109	1986	CLE	CIN	15	34	3	+3	12/14/86	34
109	1983	SFO	MIN	2	48	17	+3	09/08/83	34
109	2010	ARI	DEN	14	43	13	+4	12/12/10	34
109	1982	NOR	ATL	17	35	6	+5	01/02/83	34
109	2015	TAM	PHI	11	45	17	+6	11/22/15	34
109	1995	HOU	CLE	10	37	10	+7	11/05/95	34
109	2013	STL	HOU	6	38	13	+9	10/13/13	34
109	1980	MIN	WAS	9	39	14	+9	11/02/80	34
109	1979	CIN	PIT	7	34	10	+10	10/14/79	34
133	2000	JAX	CLE	14	48	0	-14.5	12/03/00	33.5
133	2015	ARI	SFO	3	47	7	-6.5	09/27/15	33.5
133	1998	SEA	PHI	1	38	0	-4.5	09/06/98	33.5
133	2015	JAX	IND	14	51	16	-1.5	12/13/15	33.5
133	1988	HOU	CIN	15	41	6	-1.5	12/11/88	33.5
133	1997	NYJ	TAM	16	31	0	+2.5	12/14/97	33.5
133	1992	DET	TAM	8	38	7	+2.5	10/25/92	33.5
133	1983	KAN	DEN	16	48	17	+2.5	12/18/83	33.5
133	1978	DET	MIN	15	45	14	+2.5	12/09/78	33.5
133	1978	NYJ	BUF	6	45	14	+2.5	10/08/78	33.5
143	2003	CLE	ARI	11	44	6	-5	11/16/03	33
143	2003	SEA	ARI	2	38	0	-5	09/14/03	33
143	1991	SFO	CHI	17	52	14	-5	12/23/91	33
143	1994	GNB	CHI	15	40	3	-4	12/11/94	33
143	2005	NYG	WAS	8	36	0	-3	10/30/05	33
143	1981	NYG	SEA	7	32	0	+1	10/18/81	33
143	2004	BUF	SEA	12	38	9	+4	11/28/04	33
143	2016	IND	MIN	15	34	6	+5	12/18/16	33
143	2000	PHI	DAL	1	41	14	+6	09/03/00	33
152	1987	MIA	KAN	5	42	0	-9.5	10/11/87	32.5
152	1999	JAX	SFO	1	41	3	-5.5	09/12/99	32.5
152	2011	DAL	BUF	10	44	7	-4.5	11/13/11	32.5
152	1986	CHI	CIN	4	44	7	-4.5	09/28/86	32.5
152	2014	BUF	NYJ	12	38	3	-2.5	11/24/14	32.5
152	1989	NOR	IND	16	41	6	-2.5	12/24/89	32.5
152	2003	IND	NOR	4	55	21	-1.5	09/28/03	32.5
152	1989	CHI	MIN	2	38	7	+1.5	09/17/89	32.5
152	2001	JAX	MIN	15	33	3	+2.5	12/23/01	32.5
152	1986	KAN	DEN	14	37	10	+5.5	12/07/86	32.5
152	1992	PIT	KAN	8	27	3	+8.5	10/25/92	32.5
163	2012	SFO	BUF	5	45	3	-10	10/07/12	32
163	1989	SFO	ATL	10	45	3	-10	11/12/89	32
163	1985	PIT	IND	1	45	3	-10	09/08/85	32
163	2008	NWE	ARI	16	47	7	-8	12/21/08	32
163	2009	NYJ	OAK	7	38	0	-6	10/25/09	32
163	1993	NWE	IND	17	38	0	-6	12/26/93	32
163	1979	CHI	STL	16	42	6	-4	12/16/79	32
163	2014	DAL	IND	16	42	7	-3	12/21/14	32
163	2013	KAN	WAS	14	45	10	-3	12/08/13	32
163	2003	BAL	CLE	16	35	0	-3	12/21/03	32
163	1980	MIN	DET	10	34	0	-2	11/09/80	32
163	1980	STL	NOR	5	40	7	-1	10/05/80	32
163	2016	IND	NYJ	13	41	10	+1	12/05/16	32
163	1981	SDG	CLE	1	44	14	+2	09/07/81	32
163	2012	NYG	CAR	3	36	7	+3	09/20/12	32
163	2011	MIA	KAN	9	31	3	+4	11/06/11	32
163	1986	HOU	GNB	1	31	3	+4	09/07/86	32
163	1979	SDG	PIT	12	35	7	+4	11/18/79	32
163	1987	RAI	SEA	12	37	14	+9	11/30/87	32
163	1980	MIA	RAM	10	35	14	+11	11/09/80	32
163	2002	HOU	PIT	14	24	6	+14	12/08/02	32
184	2014	GNB	CHI	10	55	14	-9.5	11/09/14	31.5
184	2012	CHI	JAX	5	41	3	-6.5	10/07/12	31.5
184	2008	NYG	SEA	5	44	6	-6.5	10/05/08	31.5
184	2006	PIT	KAN	6	45	7	-6.5	10/15/06	31.5
184	1988	NYG	PHO	14	44	7	-5.5	12/04/88	31.5
184	2015	KAN	DET	8	45	10	-3.5	11/01/15	31.5
184	2011	DET	DEN	8	45	10	-3.5	10/30/11	31.5
184	1982	ATL	NOR	14	35	0	-3.5	12/12/82	31.5
184	2006	PIT	CAR	15	37	3	-2.5	12/17/06	31.5
184	1994	BUF	KAN	9	44	10	-2.5	10/30/94	31.5
184	1993	PHO	WAS	7	36	6	+1.5	10/17/93	31.5
184	1999	WAS	NYG	2	50	21	+2.5	09/19/99	31.5
184	1997	SEA	SFO	17	38	9	+2.5	12/21/97	31.5
184	2014	MIN	STL	1	34	6	+3.5	09/07/14	31.5
184	2011	KAN	OAK	7	28	0	+3.5	10/23/11	31.5
184	2001	CHI	ATL	4	31	3	+3.5	10/07/01	31.5
184	1992	MIN	CHI	9	38	10	+3.5	11/02/92	31.5
184	1984	KAN	SEA	15	34	7	+4.5	12/09/84	31.5
184	1985	NOR	RAM	13	29	3	+5.5	12/01/85	31.5
184	2006	NOR	DAL	14	42	17	+6.5	12/10/06	31.5
184	2007	MIN	NYG	12	41	17	+7.5	11/25/07	31.5
184	2002	IND	PHI	10	35	13	+9.5	11/10/02	31.5
184	2001	NWE	IND	6	38	17	+10.5	10/21/01	31.5
184	2003	ATL	NYG	10	27	7	+11.5	11/09/03	31.5
184	2006	MIA	CHI	9	31	13	+13.5	11/05/06	31.5
184	1995	SFO	DAL	11	38	20	+13.5	11/12/95	31.5

The Broncos couldn’t tackle or cover in this one.

The top cover since 1978 belongs to the 2010 Raiders. In week 7, the 2-4 Raiders traveled to Denver to face the 2-4 Broncos. The prior week, the Raiders lost to the 0-5 49ers, so Oakland was a 7-point underdog for the game in Denver. But just over 6 minutes into the 1st quarter, the Raiders were already up 21-0. Darren McFadden finished the game with 165 rushing yards on 16 carries with 3 TDs, and caught 2 passes for 31 yards and another score. Jason Campbell went 12/20 for 2014 yards with 2 TDs, and Oakland won 59-14. That was a 45-point thrashing and a 52-point cover, the largest in recorded history.

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