The 2015 NFL Draft is in the books. The three-day event gives us a unique peek behind the NFL curtain; teams can and do say all sorts of ridiculous things, but the way the draft unfolds is the ultimate in what economists refer to as a revealed preference. Regular readers may recall that after last year’s draft, I analyzed the positions each draft pick was spent on and what that meant about the NFL’s value of each position.

As you probably know, I’ve created a draft value chart based on the expected marginal Approximate Value produced by each draftee in his first five seasons to the team that drafted him. By assigning each draft pick a number of expected points, we can then calculate how much draft capital was spent on each position. I went through the 2015 draft (using the position designations from Pro-Football-Reference) and calculated how much value was used on each position; the results are displayed in the table below. ^[1]I’m excluding fullbacks and specialists from this definition. For purposes of this study, the four fullbacks drafted, Alabama’s Jalston Fowler Jr. (Titans), Rutgers’ Michael Burton … Continue reading

Wide receiver, cornerback, and outside linebacker were the three positions that teams were most interested in acquiring in the 2015 draft. In fact, for the second straight year, 15% of all draft capital was used on wide receivers! ^[2]Last year’s class did edge this year’s if you go to another decimal. I don’t recall this year’s class having quite the hype of last year’s — and I doubt it can match that level of production — but the data suggest that NFL teams are extremely excited about this year’s crop of receivers.

The chart above is interesting, but comparing wide receivers to quarterbacks is not an apples-to-apples comparison. On every play, there are 22 players on the field, but there’s usually just one quarterback compared to anywhere from two to five receivers. So I took the above numbers and then adjusted them for each position on a per-snap basis. I used crude estimates here, but I’m assuming that, on average over the course of each season, there is 1 QB, 1.2 RBs, 2.5 WRs, 1.3 TEs, 2 OTs, 2 OGs, 1 C, 2 DEs, 1.5 DTs, 1.8 OLBs, 1.2 ILBs, 2.4 CBs, 1 SS, and 1.1 FSs on the field per play. Taking the draft capital value from the above chart and dividing those numbers by the numbers in the preceding sentence, and we get the following chart, and a very surprising new leader:

• Yes, running back — a position that has been significantly devalued in the draft — was the most valuable position on a per snap basis in the 2015 draft.  That’s just… crazy.  We saw Georgia’s Todd Gurley drafted 10th overall and Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon go five picks later (and San Diego spent the equivalent of the 6th overall pick to obtain Gordon’s rights, although trades are not considered in today’s analysis). Two more running backs went in the second round, four more in the third and fourth rounds, and a whopping five in the fifth.   By the end of the draft, 19 teams had selected running backs, an interesting result in a league that seems to devalue the position.  Then again, if you’re going to acquire a running back, getting a young one through the draft may be the preferred method, even if the opportunity cost is significant.

• This was a really poor safety class.  Let’s group free safeties and strong safeties together, to smooth out the chart.  Teams spent just 68.9 points of draft capital on safeties, despite there being about 2.1 on the field on any given defensive play.  That equates to an average of just 32.8, the least amount of draft capital spent on any position.  That’s even lower than center, a position that is often disregarded in the draft.  One might argue that teams prioritize the safety position now more than ever before, so these results are a sign of how unimpressive this class truly was. Oh, and the highest drafted safety, Damarious Randall, may wind up being a cornerback in Green Bay. That would make the numbers here even uglier.

• Tight end was another position that lacked top-end talent and couldn’t make up for it in quantity. Maxx Williams was the first tight end taken with the 55th pick, and only five were drafted in the first four rounds.

• Defensive tackles see less playing time than defensive ends, outside linebackers, cornerbacks, and safeties, since 3-4 teams have just one base player and even 4-3 teams occasionally sub tackles out on third and long.  But once you account for that, defensive tackles were given a lot of respect in this year’s draft, and more capital was spent per snap on them than any other defensive position.  They may not be sexy, but defensive tackle is still one of the toughest positions to fill on any roster.