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Adjusted Interceptions: Career Totals

Yesterday, I did a fairly simple analysis to compare interception numbers across eras. Because I covered the methodology in the previous post, I am not going to regurgitate that information here. Instead, I want to just get right into it. When I did the career adjusted sacks post, I went step-by-step in the same manner I did in the single season article. This time, however, I think we can skip past all that and look at the end results.

Career Adjusted Interception Totals

The first table is sorted by the last column, but you can re-sort by any header you like. Using Rod Woodson as an example, here’s how you read the table: Woodson intercepted 71 passes against 8401 attempts at a 0.85% rate. His passing environment modifier (Mod) is worth 142%, and the softened version of that (Soft) is worth 121%. Taking the average of his actual interceptions and interceptions per 500 attempts in order to account for volume gives us the Mid adjustment, which is 98% in Woodson’s case. Applying my homebrewed league strength multiplier (LSM) gives him a 99% adjustment.

If we multiply Woodson’s 71 interceptions by Mod, Mid, and LSM, we get a whopping 97.7 adjusted interceptions for his career. If we dampen it by multiplying those 71 picks by Soft, Mid, and LSM, Woodson’s career adjusted interceptions come to 83.2, good for the highest mark ever. [1]For the ModTot, that’s 71 * 142% * 98% * 99%. For the SoftTot, that’s 71 * 121% * 98% * 99%.

NameIntoPassInt%ModSoftMidLSMModTotSoftTot
Rod Woodson7184010.85%142%121%98%99%97.783.2
Charles Woodson6597520.67%162%131%96%100%101.281.9
Ed Reed6464041.00%158%129%97%100%98.280.1
Paul Krause8156231.44%91%96%117%88%75.779.3
Darren Sharper6367610.93%152%126%94%100%90.274.8
Aeneas Williams5563130.87%146%123%101%100%81.568.6
Ronnie Lott6366320.95%121%110%99%97%73.066.7
Eugene Robinson5782350.69%137%118%99%99%75.765.6
Emlen Tunnell7943151.83%67%83%125%79%52.465.6
Ken Riley6560451.08%96%98%112%92%64.065.4
Champ Bailey5272310.72%153%127%98%100%78.564.8
Dave Brown6263860.97%109%105%105%95%67.664.8
Ty Law5375720.70%151%125%96%100%76.863.9
Asante Samuel5159530.86%160%130%96%100%78.763.9
Deion Sanders5370480.75%142%121%100%99%74.563.5
Eric Allen5472880.74%138%119%98%99%72.762.6
Darrell Green5498390.55%134%117%98%98%69.760.9
Everson Walls5753281.07%118%109%102%96%65.860.9
Terrell Buckley5069070.72%148%124%97%100%71.560.0
Ronde Barber4771170.66%155%127%99%100%72.159.3
Night Train Lane6844661.52%72%86%123%82%49.559.0
Lem Barney5637001.51%90%95%124%89%55.758.7
Dick LeBeau6242731.45%88%94%120%83%54.758.3
Ray Buchanan4762320.75%148%124%98%100%68.157.0
Mel Blount5758100.98%96%98%110%92%55.556.8
Troy Vincent4774040.63%148%124%97%100%67.656.6
DeAngelo Hall4353320.81%162%131%97%100%67.454.5
Emmitt Thomas5846731.24%89%94%114%87%51.054.2
Terence Newman4281920.51%165%133%96%100%66.553.4
Dre' Bly4357200.75%152%126%98%100%64.253.2
Pat Fischer5657470.97%90%95%115%86%49.952.7
Donnie Shell5162550.82%106%103%106%95%54.452.7
James Hasty4562390.72%140%120%98%99%61.252.5
Deron Cherry5051460.97%120%110%99%96%56.852.1
John Harris5051880.96%111%105%103%95%54.451.7
Sammy Knight4256500.74%150%125%99%100%62.051.7
Reggie Nelson3860400.63%183%141%96%100%66.351.3
Bobby Bryant5145651.12%92%96%116%90%49.151.3
Ashley Ambrose4257490.73%149%124%98%100%61.151.0
Dave Waymer4845901.05%121%111%99%97%55.850.9
Cris Dishman4361310.70%141%120%99%99%59.450.9
Bobby Boyd5734151.67%87%93%116%82%47.250.8
Richard Sherman3755130.67%188%144%95%100%66.250.7
Aaron Glenn4167550.61%150%125%98%100%60.150.1
Jake Scott4933261.47%91%95%118%90%47.149.6
Lemar Parrish4745341.04%95%97%116%92%47.749.0
Jack Butler5223892.18%70%85%134%83%40.048.8
Mel Renfro5256650.92%91%96%112%87%46.148.4
Bobby Dillon5225242.06%70%85%129%83%39.047.5
Mike Haynes4658080.79%104%102%106%95%48.047.2
Larry Wilson5249941.04%88%94%115%84%44.247.1
Tory James3948250.81%150%125%97%100%56.547.1
Jimmy Patton5241231.26%78%89%123%83%41.347.0
Charles Tillman3863120.60%163%131%94%100%57.946.7
Willie Brown5463980.84%87%93%113%82%43.346.7
Aqib Talib3559450.59%176%138%96%100%59.346.5
Sam Madison3857060.67%149%125%98%100%55.746.5
Donnie Abraham3846570.82%148%124%98%100%55.246.3
Tim McDonald4062520.64%138%119%98%99%53.646.3
Ken Houston4946961.04%89%94%114%88%43.546.2
Patrick Surtain3755170.67%150%125%100%100%55.446.2
Albert Lewis4265720.64%127%113%99%97%51.546.0
Thom Darden4536241.24%93%96%112%93%43.745.4
Brian Dawkins3778520.47%151%125%98%100%54.645.4
Gill Byrd4246650.90%126%113%98%97%50.144.9
Nate Clements3662750.57%155%127%98%100%54.444.8
Willie Wood4839841.20%87%94%119%83%41.644.6
Tramon Williams3465910.52%174%137%96%100%56.644.6
Herb Adderley4840821.18%89%94%117%83%41.844.4
Brent Grimes3349610.67%182%141%95%100%57.244.3
LeRoy Butler3859850.63%144%122%96%99%52.444.3
Todd Lyght3763150.59%146%123%98%100%52.744.3
Eric Davis3860780.63%146%123%95%100%52.644.3
Don Burroughs5031331.60%76%88%122%82%38.244.2
Marcus Peters3134550.90%205%152%93%100%59.244.1
Yale Lary5038211.31%76%88%122%82%37.944.0
Richie Petitbon4845241.06%85%93%116%84%39.843.3
Jimmy Johnson4759450.79%89%95%113%86%40.743.2
Walt Harris3562950.56%152%126%98%100%51.843.0
Donnell Woolford3647030.77%142%121%98%99%49.742.3
Steve Foley4449870.88%103%102%100%94%42.942.2
Darren Perry3541330.85%146%123%98%100%50.242.2
Johnathan Joseph3271710.45%176%138%95%100%53.542.0
Eugene Daniel3866940.57%129%114%99%98%47.342.0
Tyrone Braxton3657440.63%140%120%98%99%48.941.9
Deltha O'Neal3441840.81%152%126%98%100%50.441.9
Terry McDaniel3546030.76%143%122%99%99%49.341.8
Johnny Robinson5744541.28%84%92%106%75%38.241.8
Eddie Meador4645081.02%87%93%117%83%38.841.7
Devin McCourty3169420.45%188%144%93%100%54.441.7
Ray Crockett3670200.51%141%121%96%99%48.741.6
Earl Thomas3054520.55%187%144%96%100%53.841.3
Dave Whitsell4638081.21%87%93%116%83%38.341.3
Lionel Washington3764380.57%127%114%100%98%46.241.2
Kevin Ross3869280.55%129%114%97%98%46.541.2
Mike Adams3058900.51%181%141%97%100%52.540.8
Joey Browner3743390.85%124%112%102%96%45.140.7
Rashean Mathis3256690.56%158%129%99%100%49.740.6
Spider Lockhart4139281.04%90%95%120%87%38.440.5
Vencie Glenn3550150.70%135%118%100%99%46.640.5
Charlie Waters4144640.92%93%97%112%92%39.040.5
Harrison Smith2951810.56%198%149%93%100%53.740.4
Clarence Scott3947490.82%96%98%113%93%39.640.4
Rodney Harrison3471940.47%150%125%95%100%48.340.3
Gary Barbaro3929531.32%99%100%109%95%40.240.3
Troy Polamalu3248580.66%160%130%96%100%49.340.1
Mike Harden3849450.77%118%109%101%96%43.340.0
Joe Haden2949470.59%189%144%95%100%52.239.9
Shawn Springs3369820.47%151%125%97%100%47.939.9
Jack Christiansen4626781.72%69%84%125%82%32.439.8
Xavien Howard2727340.99%207%154%96%100%53.539.7
Tony Greene3727701.34%91%96%122%92%37.839.7
Patrick Peterson2962660.46%191%145%94%100%51.939.6
Antonio Cromartie3143910.71%167%133%96%100%49.539.5
Mike Prior3557380.61%132%116%98%99%44.839.4
Erich Barnes4546870.96%84%92%114%84%35.839.4
Rolland Lawrence3932181.21%93%97%112%93%38.039.3
Ray Brown3837181.02%92%96%117%92%37.539.2
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie3045320.66%178%139%94%100%50.139.2
Gary Fencik3845010.84%106%103%106%95%40.239.1
Dwayne Woodruff3753520.69%117%109%101%96%42.139.0
Greg Jackson3244420.72%144%122%101%99%46.039.0
Eric Weddle2954470.53%180%140%96%100%50.239.0
Lester Hayes3947730.82%106%103%102%95%40.039.0
Stephon Gilmore2755090.49%201%150%95%100%51.738.7
Warren Lahr4433871.30%67%84%131%80%31.138.7
Darryll Lewis3247460.67%149%124%97%100%46.238.6
Anthony Henry3146670.66%153%126%98%100%46.538.5
Merton Hanks3345240.73%148%124%94%100%45.938.4
Bill Thompson4050510.79%93%97%109%91%37.038.4
Tashaun Gipson2754720.49%197%149%96%100%50.938.4
Roger Wehrli4051470.78%93%97%108%92%37.038.4
Darrelle Revis2948110.60%173%137%97%100%48.638.3
Raymond Clayborn3649720.72%110%105%105%96%40.038.2
Glen Edwards3946460.84%94%97%109%92%37.038.2
Mark Carrier3245750.70%141%121%99%99%44.538.0
Kermit Alexander4337321.15%90%95%110%84%36.037.9
Janoris Jenkins2757030.47%199%149%94%100%50.337.8
Brock Marion3146650.66%148%124%98%100%45.137.8
Samari Rolle3152660.59%150%125%97%100%45.237.7
Nolan Cromwell3747960.77%109%105%102%95%39.337.6
Ray Lewis3176010.41%152%126%96%100%45.337.5
Dexter McCleon3153010.58%148%124%97%100%44.637.4
Ryan McNeil3147610.65%148%124%97%100%44.637.4
Dewayne Washington3158410.53%148%124%97%100%44.537.3
Tom Myers3639060.92%95%98%114%93%36.437.3
Darryl Williams3152560.59%146%123%98%100%44.237.2
J.C. Jackson2521731.15%210%155%96%100%50.337.2
Jack Tatum3739710.93%93%97%113%92%35.937.1
Keith Lyle3148610.64%149%125%96%100%44.537.1
Ed Sharockman4037351.07%89%94%117%84%34.837.0
Deon Grant3058860.51%155%127%97%100%44.936.9
Ron Bolton3534531.01%95%97%115%94%35.936.9
Tyrann Mathieu2652310.50%204%152%93%100%49.436.8
Rick Volk3842360.90%90%95%115%89%34.736.7
Tim McKyer3351730.64%129%115%98%99%41.436.7
Dennis Thurman3637850.95%110%105%103%95%38.336.7
Stan White3437830.90%96%98%116%94%35.636.3
Michael Downs3544540.79%115%108%101%96%38.836.3
Ken Reaves3744610.83%90%95%117%88%34.336.3
Bill Simpson3430971.10%98%99%115%94%35.936.3
Tony Parrish3043030.70%150%125%96%100%43.336.1
Kurt Schulz3037420.80%148%124%97%100%42.935.9
Lyle Blackwood3547530.74%100%100%108%95%35.835.7
Eric Turner3042610.70%147%123%97%100%42.535.7
Bob Howard3743360.85%90%95%113%89%33.735.5
LeRoy Irvin3553170.66%117%108%97%96%38.035.3
Mike Wagner3637400.96%93%97%110%92%34.035.2
Otis Smith2957630.50%147%123%98%100%41.534.9
Greg Wesley2938080.76%151%125%96%100%41.934.9
Willie Williams3527911.25%90%95%122%86%32.934.7
Lindon Crow3829451.29%74%87%126%83%29.434.6
David Fulcher3134940.89%126%113%100%98%38.534.5
Carl Lee3158840.53%126%113%101%97%38.434.4
Johnny Sample4135041.17%84%92%114%79%31.334.2
Mark Lee3252520.61%117%108%102%96%36.934.2
Brent Alexander2846880.60%150%125%98%100%41.034.2
Louis Breeden3342290.78%111%105%103%95%35.934.2
Chris Gamble2736200.75%157%128%98%100%41.634.1
Mike McKenzie2858570.48%151%126%97%100%41.034.1
Dave Grayson4843111.11%81%91%108%72%30.534.0
Mark Kelso3029141.03%127%113%101%98%37.933.9
Leon Hall2757040.47%168%134%94%100%42.533.9
Antoine Bethea2552410.48%178%139%98%100%43.433.9
Nate Wright3439320.86%92%96%114%91%32.533.9
Casey Hayward2438490.62%195%148%95%100%44.733.8
Brig Owens3639530.91%90%95%113%87%32.133.8
Kenny Easley3232660.98%113%107%104%95%35.933.7
Joe Lavender3333151.00%97%99%110%94%33.233.6
Antrel Rolle2654760.47%169%135%96%100%42.133.5
Herm Edwards3339950.83%102%101%106%94%33.833.5
Adrian Wilson2758950.46%156%128%97%100%40.833.5
Dick Lynch3728591.29%83%92%120%82%30.433.4
Donnie Edwards2854750.51%150%125%96%100%40.133.4
Gary Green3341920.79%107%103%104%94%34.533.4
Scott Case3044190.68%125%113%101%98%37.133.4
Antoine Winfield2770130.38%156%128%96%100%40.533.2
Norm Thompson3330911.07%92%96%115%91%31.733.2
William Thomas2745240.60%147%124%100%100%39.533.2
Doug Evans2860630.46%149%124%95%100%39.633.1
Phillippi Sparks2740670.66%148%124%99%100%39.533.1
Jairus Byrd2537220.67%173%136%97%100%41.933.1
Darius Slay2344650.52%203%152%95%100%44.333.1
Dick Anderson3429011.17%88%94%119%87%30.832.9
Vann McElroy3138400.81%117%109%102%96%35.532.9
Tom Keane4020461.96%66%83%123%80%26.332.9
Jerry Norton3527981.25%74%87%130%83%27.932.8
Robert Griffith2757870.47%150%125%98%100%39.432.8
Tom Carter2741290.65%147%124%98%100%39.032.8
Glover Quin2439390.61%188%144%94%100%42.632.6
Don Shinnick3744710.83%81%90%117%83%29.232.6
W.K. Hicks4035681.12%85%93%113%78%30.032.6
Dennis Smith3060180.50%125%112%100%97%36.132.5
Wes Hopkins3035610.84%125%112%99%97%36.132.5
Jimmy Allen3124421.27%100%100%111%94%32.432.5
Sheldon Brown2659200.44%159%130%96%100%39.932.5
O.J. Atogwe2534950.72%160%130%100%100%39.932.5
Bill Bradley3428011.21%89%95%112%89%30.632.4
Don Paul3422781.49%68%84%138%82%26.332.4
Kevin Byard2329940.77%206%153%92%100%43.532.3
Terry Kinard3141640.74%121%111%98%96%35.432.3
Jim David3625921.39%69%85%127%83%26.432.2
Maurice Hurst2734150.79%138%119%101%99%37.332.2
Dwight Hicks3239310.81%109%105%101%95%33.532.1
Trumaine Johnson2345090.51%195%147%94%100%42.332.0
Felix Wright2939590.73%125%112%101%97%35.431.9
Micah Hyde2244070.50%204%152%95%100%42.831.9
Willie Clay2734010.79%149%125%94%100%37.831.6
Chris McAlister2653390.49%151%125%97%100%38.031.6
Jack Ham3249700.64%92%96%110%93%30.331.5
John Lynch2657930.45%149%125%97%100%37.731.5
Michael Griffin2551200.49%168%134%94%100%39.431.5
Fred Marion2943690.66%122%111%101%96%34.631.4
Brian Washington2741460.65%139%119%98%99%36.531.4
Louis Oliver2735880.75%137%118%99%99%36.131.3
Derrick Brooks2560190.42%150%125%100%100%37.431.1
Willie Williams2648100.54%148%124%97%100%37.231.1
Roland James2945940.63%115%107%104%96%33.231.1
Don Doll4121911.87%65%82%118%78%24.431.1
Rod Perry3033230.90%99%99%110%94%30.931.1
Mark Collins2762700.43%138%119%98%99%36.031.1
Justin Simmons2132580.64%208%154%96%100%41.931.0
Jimmy Spencer2643830.59%149%125%96%100%37.030.9
Jerry Logan3439700.86%90%95%113%85%29.230.8
Jerry Gray2830700.91%126%113%99%98%34.330.7
Goose Gonsoulin4629361.57%77%89%110%69%26.830.7
Kwamie Lassiter2540960.61%149%124%99%100%36.730.7
Marcus Coleman2546340.54%149%124%99%100%36.630.6
Chris Harris2261510.36%194%147%95%100%40.330.6
Chris Harris Jr.2261510.36%194%147%95%100%40.330.6
Glenn Blackwood2937370.78%113%107%104%95%32.530.6
Burgess Owens3037890.79%98%99%109%94%30.230.5
Butch Byrd4029051.38%84%92%110%75%27.930.4
Charles Romes2838840.72%111%105%108%95%31.830.3
Ken Lucas2549400.51%153%127%96%100%36.630.2
Victor Green2541930.60%147%124%98%100%35.930.2
Cornell Green3442050.81%89%95%109%85%28.430.1
Charlie Stukes3231211.03%89%95%114%87%28.430.0
Cedric Brown2934840.83%103%102%107%95%30.530.0
Miller Farr3534781.01%86%93%115%80%27.729.9
Lawyer Milloy2554690.46%150%125%96%100%35.729.8
Nate Odomes2630490.85%134%117%99%99%34.129.8
Rosey Taylor3240980.78%89%94%117%84%27.929.7
Kerry Rhodes2335680.64%161%130%99%100%36.729.7
Duane Starks2532610.77%147%124%96%100%35.329.7
Andy Nelson3324441.35%77%89%122%83%25.829.6
Duron Harmon2152200.40%202%151%93%100%39.529.5
Jordan Poyer2032320.62%206%153%96%100%39.729.5
Vontae Davis2243620.50%179%139%96%100%37.729.4
Aaron Beasley2446630.51%149%124%98%100%35.029.3
Lee Roy Jordan3248810.66%91%95%111%86%27.829.2
Jay Bellamy2441720.58%148%124%98%100%34.829.1
Marcus Robertson2441250.58%147%123%98%100%34.629.1
Bobby Hunt4235481.18%81%90%106%72%26.029.1
Ray Ramsey3519631.78%66%83%139%72%23.229.1
Reshad Jones2149780.42%190%145%95%100%38.129.0
Jim Norton4540691.11%79%90%105%68%25.629.0
Mike Bass3027151.10%90%95%114%88%27.428.9
Mark Murphy2721591.25%108%104%108%95%30.128.9
Bobby Butler2742630.63%116%108%103%96%31.028.8
Dale Carter2446690.51%145%122%98%100%34.028.7
Malcolm Jenkins2163300.33%192%146%93%100%37.728.7
Kurt Coleman2133460.63%188%144%95%100%37.328.6
George Atkinson3034160.88%89%95%116%87%26.928.6
Mark McMillian2339820.58%148%124%100%100%33.928.4
Ken Konz3021111.42%70%85%133%84%23.428.4
London Fletcher2349270.47%158%129%96%100%34.828.4
Darren Woodson2351130.45%150%125%99%100%34.028.3
Dick Alban3024391.23%72%86%132%83%23.628.3
Gene Atkins2546840.53%133%117%98%99%32.228.2
Brandon Carr2149790.42%180%140%95%100%36.028.0
Steve Atwater2452680.46%139%120%97%99%32.427.8
Brandon Flowers2142260.50%171%136%97%100%35.027.7
Dwayne Harper2453430.45%140%120%97%99%32.327.7
Charles Mincy2341400.56%145%122%98%100%32.727.6
Kareem Jackson2061210.33%190%145%95%100%36.127.6
Seth Joyner2456590.42%136%118%99%99%31.727.5
Brian Kelly2240270.55%151%125%100%100%33.027.5
Sam Huff3046110.65%82%91%120%83%24.727.4
Dwight Smith2230840.71%152%126%99%100%33.027.4
Don Griffin2549310.51%131%116%96%99%31.027.3
Frank Reagan3516722.09%61%80%140%69%20.627.2
Kyle Fuller1933220.57%201%150%95%100%36.327.2
Nick Collins2125300.83%159%130%99%100%33.327.1
Bert Rechichar3123191.34%68%84%125%82%21.826.8
Tommy James3426421.29%66%83%126%75%21.326.8
Quandre Diggs1930030.63%208%154%92%100%36.126.8
Andre Dyson2237640.58%151%126%96%100%32.126.7
Bernie Parrish3125921.20%81%91%118%80%23.726.5
Brian Urlacher2257430.38%156%128%94%100%32.226.4
Jim Cason3423741.43%67%84%124%75%21.226.3
Ricky Reynolds2346520.49%134%117%98%99%30.126.2
Nick Harper2141830.50%154%127%98%100%31.526.0
Orlando Thomas2239220.56%149%125%95%100%31.025.9
Karlos Dansby2055510.36%172%136%95%100%32.825.9
Deshea Townsend2147610.44%153%126%97%100%31.225.8
Keith Bulluck2153690.39%155%127%97%100%31.425.8
Quentin Jammer2149860.42%159%129%95%100%31.725.8
Al Harris2147740.44%152%126%97%100%31.025.7
Chad Scott2141220.51%149%124%99%100%30.725.7
Tim Jennings2033770.59%172%136%94%100%32.425.7
Corey Webster2037530.53%165%133%97%100%31.925.6
Fred Smoot2142470.49%151%126%97%100%30.825.6
Marcus Trufant2150370.42%156%128%95%100%31.125.5
Tom Landry3224171.32%66%83%122%78%20.225.3
Sam Shields1939190.48%181%140%95%100%32.525.2
Drayton Florence2048730.41%161%131%96%100%31.125.1
Phillip Buchanon2035860.56%154%127%99%100%30.425.1
Luke Kuechly1845650.39%194%147%94%100%32.824.9
Quintin Demps1833070.54%189%145%95%100%32.524.8
Logan Ryan1835270.51%197%148%93%100%32.824.7
Bob Smith3321021.57%67%83%121%74%19.724.6
Otto Schnellbacher3413292.56%66%83%125%70%19.524.6
Nick Buoniconti3247210.68%83%92%108%76%21.824.1
Bill Baird3430911.10%82%91%107%73%21.624.0
Jason McCourty1846260.39%186%143%93%100%31.324.0
Malcolm Butler1735430.48%205%153%92%100%32.223.9
Lowell Wagner3220581.55%66%83%123%73%18.923.9
Corey Graham1852610.34%185%143%93%100%30.923.8
Irv Comp3417391.96%52%76%151%61%16.323.8
Fred Williamson3630571.18%78%89%107%69%20.823.7
Tre'Davious White1627210.59%207%154%96%100%31.823.6
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix1633030.48%202%151%95%100%30.923.1
Bashaud Breeland1644970.36%203%152%94%100%30.722.9
Rodney McLeod1645020.36%200%150%94%100%30.322.7
Josh Norman1645510.35%200%150%94%100%30.022.5
Willie West3033390.90%81%91%110%72%19.221.4
Sammy Baugh3113202.35%48%74%164%57%13.821.3
Cliff Lewis3018831.59%66%83%130%66%17.021.3
Ron Hall3035820.84%80%90%106%70%17.820.1
Don Hutson3014302.10%50%75%155%56%13.019.6
Fred Glick3026921.11%78%89%106%68%16.719.1

Using the actual historical average as a baseline appears to be a bit much, going by the numbers it produces. I think having Charles Woodson, Ed Reed, Rod Woodson, a serial rapist, and Aeneas Williams as the top five (by ModTot) is fine; giving Chuck credit for 101 interceptions is a bit much for me. Moving the all time leader in picks, Paul Krause, down to ninth also feels a tad harsh as well. Sure, I think he tends to be overrated by people who look at one number and base their entire evaluation on that single data point, but I also think having such a commanding lead over any modern player should count for something. For this reason, I think the SoftTot column produces results with greater face validity.

The last column gives us a top ten of seven Hall of Famers, one senior candidate who will likely get the necessary votes soon, possibly the best safety of the 1990s who would be in Canton already if he played for Dallas or San Francisco, and a a vile monster who was good at picking off passes and not really much else.

Let’s Be Reasonable

The wacky looking career totals form the table above convinced me to try using a new baseline. I decided to use the last 40 years of football, which incorporates nearly the entire period of open offense football. [2]I refer to football in the wake of the Mel Blount Rule and rules enabling offensive linemen to extend their hands to block in 1978, as well as the subsequent offensive revolution heralded by the … Continue reading When I looked at that timeframe, the historical baseline moved from 4.80% to 3.16%. because of that, I have dubbed the new baseline the Austin Percentage. Having a lower baseline means that fewer players will see their totals go up, and only the most recent players will their totals go up significantly.

The table below is sorted by the last column, but you can sort by any of the headings. Using Krause as our example, read the table thus: Krause picked off 81 passes against 5623 attempts at a 1.44% rate. His volume adjustment is worth 117%, and his league strength multiplier is worth 88%. His Austin figure is 60%, which comes to 80% when the effect is halved. [3]Recall from the first table that his Mod and Soft were 91% and 96% because of the highest baseline. If we apply the Mid, LSM, and Austin modifiers to Krause’s 81 actual interceptions, his total plummets to 49.9, which ranks tenth on the career list. If we replace the Austin modifier with the softened version, Krause’s number falls to just 66.4, which allows him to maintain his place atop the interception mountain. [4]To arrive at the numbers in the Austin column, we use: 81 * 117% * 88% * 60%. To find the results for the HalfTot column, we use: 81 * 117% * 88% * 80%. These figures are rounded and will produce … Continue reading

NameIntoPassInt%MidLSMAustin%Half%AustinHalfTot
Paul Krause8156231.44%117%88%60%80%49.966.4
Rod Woodson7184010.85%98%99%93%96%63.866.3
Charles Woodson6597520.67%96%100%107%103%66.664.5
Ed Reed6464041.00%97%100%106%103%65.563.7
Darren Sharper6367610.93%94%100%100%100%59.659.5
Emlen Tunnell7943151.83%125%79%45%73%35.457.0
Ken Riley6560451.08%112%92%64%82%42.554.6
Aeneas Williams5563130.87%101%100%96%98%53.654.6
Ronnie Lott6366320.95%99%97%81%90%48.754.6
Dave Brown6263860.97%105%95%72%86%44.953.4
Eugene Robinson5782350.69%99%99%90%95%50.152.8
Champ Bailey5272310.72%98%100%103%101%52.551.8
Night Train Lane6844661.52%123%82%50%75%34.151.3
Deion Sanders5370480.75%100%99%95%97%49.851.2
Ty Law5375720.70%96%100%99%100%50.750.8
Eric Allen5472880.74%98%99%93%96%48.850.7
Asante Samuel5159530.86%96%100%106%103%52.150.6
Everson Walls5753281.07%102%96%79%90%44.350.1
Lem Barney5637001.51%124%89%60%80%36.749.2
Darrell Green5498390.55%98%98%89%94%46.149.1
Dick LeBeau6242731.45%120%83%57%79%35.648.7
Terrell Buckley5069070.72%97%100%97%99%47.147.8
Mel Blount5758100.98%110%92%64%82%37.247.6
Ronde Barber4771170.66%99%100%102%101%47.547.1
Ray Buchanan4762320.75%98%100%98%99%45.145.6
Emmitt Thomas5846731.24%114%87%58%79%33.545.4
Troy Vincent4774040.63%97%100%97%99%44.445.0
Pat Fischer5657470.97%115%86%59%80%32.944.2
Donnie Shell5162550.82%106%95%70%85%35.643.3
DeAngelo Hall4353320.81%97%100%107%104%44.643.1
Bobby Bryant5145651.12%116%90%61%81%32.843.1
Terence Newman4281920.51%96%100%113%107%45.642.9
Bobby Boyd5734151.67%116%82%57%79%31.042.7
John Harris5051880.96%103%95%73%87%36.042.5
Deron Cherry5051460.97%99%96%79%89%37.542.5
Dre' Bly4357200.75%98%100%100%100%42.342.2
James Hasty4562390.72%98%99%92%96%40.442.1
Jack Butler5223892.18%134%83%46%73%26.441.9
Jake Scott4933261.47%118%90%60%80%31.141.6
Dave Waymer4845901.05%99%97%80%90%36.841.4
Sammy Knight4256500.74%99%100%99%99%41.041.2
Lemar Parrish4745341.04%116%92%63%82%31.841.1
Bobby Dillon5225242.06%129%83%46%73%26.041.0
Cris Dishman4361310.70%99%99%94%97%39.741.0
Ashley Ambrose4257490.73%98%100%98%99%40.340.7
Mel Renfro5256650.92%112%87%60%80%30.340.4
Jimmy Patton5241231.26%123%83%53%77%28.040.4
Richard Sherman3755130.67%95%100%129%114%45.440.3
Aaron Glenn4167550.61%98%100%99%99%39.740.0
Reggie Nelson3860400.63%96%100%120%110%43.640.0
Mike Haynes4658080.79%106%95%71%86%33.139.7
Larry Wilson5249941.04%115%84%58%79%28.939.5
Willie Brown5463980.84%113%82%57%79%28.639.3
Ken Houston4946961.04%114%88%59%80%29.139.0
Thom Darden4536241.24%112%93%64%82%29.938.4
Don Burroughs5031331.60%122%82%51%76%25.838.0
Yale Lary5038211.31%122%82%50%75%25.337.7
Willie Wood4839841.20%119%83%58%79%27.737.7
Tim McDonald4062520.64%98%99%93%96%36.137.5
Albert Lewis4265720.64%99%97%85%92%34.337.5
Tory James3948250.81%97%100%99%99%37.237.4
Charles Tillman3863120.60%94%100%110%105%39.037.3
Sam Madison3857060.67%98%100%99%100%37.137.2
Herb Adderley4840821.18%117%83%58%79%27.337.2
Aqib Talib3559450.59%96%100%120%110%40.637.1
Donnie Abraham3846570.82%98%100%98%99%36.536.9
Patrick Surtain3755170.67%100%100%100%100%36.836.8
Richie Petitbon4845241.06%116%84%57%78%26.636.6
Jimmy Johnson4759450.79%113%86%59%80%27.036.3
Brian Dawkins3778520.47%98%100%100%100%36.336.2
Gill Byrd4246650.90%98%97%81%90%32.236.0
Nate Clements3662750.57%98%100%104%102%36.635.9
Tramon Williams3465910.52%96%100%119%110%38.735.6
LeRoy Butler3859850.63%96%99%95%97%34.435.4
Steve Foley4449870.88%100%94%70%85%29.135.4
Eric Davis3860780.63%95%100%96%98%34.535.3
Todd Lyght3763150.59%98%100%96%98%34.635.3
Eddie Meador4645081.02%117%83%57%79%25.535.1
Johnny Robinson5744541.28%106%75%55%77%24.735.0
Dave Whitsell4638081.21%116%83%57%79%25.434.8
Brent Grimes3349610.67%95%100%119%110%37.534.5
Eugene Daniel3866940.57%99%98%88%94%32.334.5
Jack Christiansen4626781.72%125%82%45%73%21.334.2
Spider Lockhart4139281.04%120%87%60%80%25.534.1
Walt Harris3562950.56%98%100%99%100%34.034.1
Marcus Peters3134550.90%93%100%135%117%39.134.0
Charlie Waters4144640.92%112%92%62%81%26.134.0
Clarence Scott3947490.82%113%93%65%82%26.733.9
Lionel Washington3764380.57%100%98%87%93%31.533.9
Darren Perry3541330.85%98%100%97%98%33.233.7
Kevin Ross3869280.55%97%98%87%94%31.433.7
Johnathan Joseph3271710.45%95%100%121%111%36.933.7
Donnell Woolford3647030.77%98%99%93%97%32.533.7
Warren Lahr4433871.30%131%80%45%73%21.033.7
Erich Barnes4546870.96%114%84%57%78%24.433.7
Tyrone Braxton3657440.63%98%99%93%96%32.433.7
Gary Barbaro3929531.32%109%95%66%83%26.833.6
Ray Crockett3670200.51%96%99%94%97%32.433.5
Terry McDaniel3546030.76%99%99%94%97%32.533.4
Deltha O'Neal3441840.81%98%100%101%100%33.533.4
Tony Greene3727701.34%122%92%61%80%25.233.4
Ray Brown3837181.02%117%92%62%81%25.333.1
Rolland Lawrence3932181.21%112%93%63%81%25.633.1
Rashean Mathis3256690.56%99%100%109%104%34.232.9
Devin McCourty3169420.45%93%100%127%113%36.632.7
Joey Browner3743390.85%102%96%80%90%29.132.7
Mike Harden3849450.77%101%96%78%89%28.532.6
Gary Fencik3845010.84%106%95%71%85%26.932.5
Vencie Glenn3550150.70%100%99%88%94%30.332.4
Lester Hayes3947730.82%102%95%71%85%26.832.4
Roger Wehrli4051470.78%108%92%63%81%24.932.3
Mike Prior3557380.61%98%99%91%95%30.732.3
Earl Thomas3054520.55%96%100%125%112%35.832.3
Bill Thompson4050510.79%109%91%62%81%24.632.2
Rodney Harrison3471940.47%95%100%99%100%32.132.2
Glen Edwards3946460.84%109%92%63%81%24.832.1
Troy Polamalu3248580.66%96%100%107%104%33.132.0
Shawn Springs3369820.47%97%100%100%100%31.831.8
Kermit Alexander4337321.15%110%84%60%80%23.831.8
Mike Adams3058900.51%97%100%119%109%34.531.7
Dwayne Woodruff3753520.69%101%96%76%88%27.431.7
Raymond Clayborn3649720.72%105%96%74%87%27.031.6
Joe Haden2949470.59%95%100%127%113%35.031.4
Antonio Cromartie3143910.71%96%100%112%106%33.031.3
Ron Bolton3534531.01%115%94%65%82%24.631.2
Patrick Peterson2962660.46%94%100%129%115%35.131.2
Harrison Smith2951810.56%93%100%130%115%35.331.2
Greg Jackson3244420.72%101%99%95%97%30.331.2
Ed Sharockman4037351.07%117%84%59%79%23.131.1
Tom Myers3639060.92%114%93%63%82%24.131.1
Nolan Cromwell3747960.77%102%95%73%86%26.231.1
Jack Tatum3739710.93%113%92%62%81%23.731.0
Rick Volk3842360.90%115%89%59%80%23.030.9
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie3045320.66%94%100%118%109%33.430.8
Mark Carrier3245750.70%99%99%95%97%29.930.8
Anthony Henry3146670.66%98%100%102%101%30.930.7
Xavien Howard2727340.99%96%100%137%118%35.330.6
Darrelle Revis2948110.60%97%100%117%109%32.930.5
Ken Reaves3744610.83%117%88%59%80%22.730.5
Merton Hanks3345240.73%94%100%97%98%29.930.5
Darryll Lewis3247460.67%97%100%96%98%29.830.4
Stan White3437830.90%116%94%64%82%23.830.4
Lyle Blackwood3547530.74%108%95%70%85%25.130.4
Samari Rolle3152660.59%97%100%100%100%30.130.2
Bill Simpson3430971.10%115%94%64%82%23.630.1
Eric Weddle2954470.53%96%100%116%108%32.330.1
Brock Marion3146650.66%98%100%98%99%29.730.0
Lindon Crow3829451.29%126%83%51%75%20.230.0
Dennis Thurman3637850.95%103%95%71%86%24.930.0
Tim McKyer3351730.64%98%99%87%94%27.930.0
Michael Downs3544540.79%101%96%77%89%26.029.9
Ray Lewis3176010.41%96%100%101%100%30.029.9
Dexter McCleon3153010.58%97%100%98%99%29.629.8
Bob Howard3743360.85%113%89%60%80%22.229.8
Dewayne Washington3158410.53%97%100%98%99%29.529.8
Tashaun Gipson2754720.49%96%100%130%115%33.729.7
Ryan McNeil3147610.65%97%100%98%99%29.429.7
Stephon Gilmore2755090.49%95%100%131%115%33.629.7
Darryl Williams3152560.59%98%100%97%98%29.229.7
Keith Lyle3148610.64%96%100%98%99%29.229.5
Deon Grant3058860.51%97%100%103%102%29.929.5
Mike Wagner3637400.96%110%92%62%81%22.529.5
Janoris Jenkins2757030.47%94%100%131%115%33.229.3
Willie Williams3527911.25%122%86%60%80%21.829.2
LeRoy Irvin3553170.66%97%96%78%89%25.329.0
Johnny Sample4135041.17%114%79%56%78%20.628.9
Dave Grayson4843111.11%108%72%54%77%20.128.8
Tony Parrish3043030.70%96%100%98%99%28.428.7
Kurt Schulz3037420.80%97%100%98%99%28.328.6
Nate Wright3439320.86%114%91%62%81%21.728.5
J.C. Jackson2521731.15%96%100%137%119%32.928.4
Tom Keane4020461.96%123%80%43%72%17.228.4
Brig Owens3639530.91%113%87%59%80%21.128.3
Eric Turner3042610.70%97%100%95%98%27.628.3
Dick Lynch3728591.29%120%82%55%77%20.028.2
Mark Lee3252520.61%102%96%79%89%24.928.2
Herm Edwards3339950.83%106%94%70%85%23.228.2
Louis Breeden3342290.78%103%95%74%87%23.828.1
Jerry Norton3527981.25%130%83%49%74%18.428.1
Tyrann Mathieu2652310.50%93%100%132%116%32.028.1
Don Shinnick3744710.83%117%83%55%78%19.928.0
Carl Lee3158840.53%101%97%84%92%25.528.0
David Fulcher3134940.89%100%98%84%92%25.427.9
Joe Lavender3333151.00%110%94%64%82%21.827.9
Don Paul3422781.49%138%82%45%73%17.327.9
Jim David3625921.39%127%83%46%73%17.627.8
Norm Thompson3330911.07%115%91%60%80%20.927.8
Kenny Easley3232660.98%104%95%76%88%23.927.7
Dick Anderson3429011.17%119%87%58%79%20.427.7
Mark Kelso3029141.03%101%98%85%92%25.327.6
Gary Green3341920.79%104%94%70%85%22.727.5
W.K. Hicks4035681.12%113%78%56%78%19.727.5
Scott Case3044190.68%101%98%85%92%25.127.4
Bill Bradley3428011.21%112%89%60%80%20.527.3
Don Doll4121911.87%118%78%43%71%16.227.0
Jimmy Allen3124421.27%111%94%65%83%21.327.0
Vann McElroy3138400.81%102%96%78%89%23.526.9
Jack Ham3249700.64%110%93%64%82%20.826.8
Wes Hopkins3035610.84%99%97%84%92%24.326.6
Dwight Hicks3239310.81%101%95%73%87%22.526.6
Casey Hayward2438490.62%95%100%132%116%30.126.5
Rod Perry3033230.90%110%94%68%84%21.326.3
Goose Gonsoulin4629361.57%110%69%52%76%17.926.2
Dennis Smith3060180.50%100%97%81%90%23.426.2
Terry Kinard3141640.74%98%96%79%90%23.126.1
Jerry Logan3439700.86%113%85%59%80%19.325.9
Butch Byrd4029051.38%110%75%55%78%18.325.7
Burgess Owens3037890.79%109%94%65%83%20.225.5
Andy Nelson3324441.35%122%83%53%76%17.625.5
Cornell Green3442050.81%109%85%59%80%18.825.3
Charlie Stukes3231211.03%114%87%59%80%18.825.3
Miller Farr3534781.01%115%80%57%78%18.325.2
Ray Ramsey3519631.78%139%72%43%72%15.225.1
Rosey Taylor3240980.78%117%84%59%79%18.625.0
Bobby Hunt4235481.18%106%72%54%77%17.324.7
Jim Norton4540691.11%105%68%52%76%16.924.6
Ken Konz3021111.42%133%84%47%73%15.624.5
Lee Roy Jordan3248810.66%111%86%59%80%18.224.5
Mike Bass3027151.10%114%88%60%80%18.124.3
Dick Alban3024391.23%132%83%46%73%15.324.1
George Atkinson3034160.88%116%87%58%79%17.724.0
Frank Reagan3516722.09%140%69%40%70%13.423.7
Sam Huff3046110.65%120%83%55%77%16.523.3
Bert Rechichar3123191.34%125%82%46%73%14.623.2
Tommy James3426421.29%126%75%44%72%14.223.2
Bernie Parrish3125921.20%118%80%55%78%16.222.7
Jim Cason3423741.43%124%75%44%72%13.822.6
Tom Landry3224171.32%122%78%44%72%13.421.9
Otto Schnellbacher3413292.56%125%70%43%72%12.921.3
Irv Comp3417391.96%151%61%36%68%11.221.2
Bob Smith3321021.57%121%74%43%72%12.821.2
Lowell Wagner3220581.55%123%73%44%72%12.520.7
Bill Baird3430911.10%107%73%54%77%14.420.4
Fred Williamson3630571.18%107%69%53%76%14.020.3
Nick Buoniconti3247210.68%108%76%55%77%14.420.3
Sammy Baugh3113202.35%164%57%33%67%9.619.1
Cliff Lewis3018831.59%130%66%43%72%11.018.3
Willie West3033390.90%110%72%53%76%12.518.1
Don Hutson3014302.10%155%56%33%66%8.617.4
Ron Hall3035820.84%106%70%52%76%11.717.0
Fred Glick3026921.11%106%68%52%76%11.116.3

If you earnestly believe older players relied too much on archaic passing to glean their big interception totals, the Austin column might be for you. Before we find Krause at number ten, only Rod Woodson and Eugene Robinson had any action prior to 1990. Recent ball hawk Richard Sherman is in a fourteen-way tie for 104th place in career interceptions, with 37. However, when Austin 3.16 comes around, Sherman jumps to 18th, which does feel more appropriate for one of the premier turnover artists of recent vintage. In fact, his 8.4 interception boost is the highest number of any player, just beating out the bonuses of 8.3 and 8.1 for fellow playmakers Xavien Howard and Marcus Peters. Wandering mercenary Aqib Talib finds himself pretty high on the career list when looking at the Austin total.

While some recent players saw modest gains, older players saw their totals fall off a cliff with the lower baseline. Emlen Tunnell, a real life hero who picked off 79 passes—but did most of his damage in the 1950s—suffers a reduction of 43.6 from his total. He goes from ranking second on the official list to 54th on the Austin list. That seems a little steep, even to a noted old school player hater like I am. Night Train Lane and Johnny Robinson join Krause and Tunnell as the only other players to lose at least 30 from their totals. Turn-of-the-century players like Sam Madison and Patrick Surtain see almost no change in their career numbers.

I think the last column makes the most sense at first glace. Tunnell, Robinson, and Jim Norton all lose more than 20 from their real numbers, and no one gains more than 3.6. Krause loses 14.6, but because Tunnell lost 22 and his lead over anyone else was huge, he remains in first place. Rod Woodson loses 4.7 from his total, while Charles Woodson and Ed Reed each lose about half a pick, resulting in the three ending pretty clustered, and all close to Krause at the top. While Tunnell has a large reduction, his actual number of interceptions was so high to begin with that he still ranks sixth here.

I am often interested to see where Ken Riley and Dave Brown will fall, relative to one another. Riley has 65 interceptions to Brown’s 62. The Austin adjustment puts Brown ahead, while my preferred adjustment leaves the Bengals legend with a 54.6 to 53.4 lead. Riley never made a Pro Bowl, but he earned first team all pro honors once and second team honors twice. Brown made one Pro Bowl and one all pro second team. Given how close together these two are in terms of actual production, the gap in their public perception is pretty interesting to me. When you consider the fact that Brown was his team’s top corner, while Lemar Parrish was the top corner in Cincinnati until 1977, the issue is further muddled.

I will leave further commentary to the FP faithful, if any remain.

 

References

References
1 For the ModTot, that’s 71 * 142% * 98% * 99%. For the SoftTot, that’s 71 * 121% * 98% * 99%.
2 I refer to football in the wake of the Mel Blount Rule and rules enabling offensive linemen to extend their hands to block in 1978, as well as the subsequent offensive revolution heralded by the likes of Bill Walsh, Don Coryell, and Joe Gibbs.
3 Recall from the first table that his Mod and Soft were 91% and 96% because of the highest baseline.
4 To arrive at the numbers in the Austin column, we use: 81 * 117% * 88% * 60%. To find the results for the HalfTot column, we use: 81 * 117% * 88% * 80%. These figures are rounded and will produce slightly different results if you copy and paste to work with them yourself.
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