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538: What Is Wrong With Aaron Rodgers?

Today at 538: What is wrong with Aaron Rodgers?

From 2008 to 2014, Rodgers averaged 7.34 yards per dropback,1 according to ESPN’s Stats & Information Group. Rodgers’s rate was the second-best during that time period and just 0.01 yards per dropback behind Peyton Manning’s. That sort of dominant play earned Rodgers two MVP awards and helped the Packers win a Super Bowl.

Recently, things haven’t gone quite so well. Rodgers has averaged 5.79 yards per dropback since the start of 2015. Since November of last year, the Packers are just 5-7. And Rodgers is in the middle of a cold spell prolonged enough to prompt his coach to chip in with a vote of confidence — never a great sign. But what’s to blame for the decline — a change in scheme? Rodgers’s skills? The steady physical destruction of his most trusted receivers? That’s tough to untangle, but we can give it a try.

You can read the full article here.

  • Phil

    Is there a publically available source for time from snap to release? Has he been holding onto longer than in the past

    I was watching Sunday night, and it occurred to me that he sort of reminded me of Favre from 2003 – 2006, when in my opinion, he started to buy into his own hype, and started to try and make every play a great highlight play

    in my opinion, that’s a bad trap for a QB to fall into, its important to take the simple, easy stuff, make the defense take that stuff off the table first

    that’s what Peyton was great at, it might not have made for impressive highlights, but he wasn’t passing up open receivers for 5 yard gains


    example, see the first play in this writeup http://www.footballoutsiders.com/film-room/2016/film-room-aaron-Rodgers

    the write up is all about how the receiver dropped a great throw by Rodgers, but Rodgers passed up a wide open Cobb for an easy first down, for a much higher degree of difficulty throw
    if that’s really the problem, then Favre is a good precedent for Rodgers, has he had several good years afterward when he tone back his approach and didn’t try to make as much happen
    (I’m having trouble finding it right now, but I have a memory of reading a Brian Burke post about how one of Favre’s later years, he had one of the lowest air yards/ attempt in the league)
    not taking the easy throws enough, seems like a fixable problem

    • justjoseph

      Lots of players retire with “fixable problems”

  • Adam

    The numbers from the last paragraph are staggering. Going from the best NY/A in the league to the worst without a QB change seems unprecedented. Even the corpse of Peyton Manning maintained a respectable NY/A last year. Can you think of another instance similar to Rodgers?

  • justjoseph

    The 538 is OVER!
    They used to be really good. Now they suck.