≡ Menu

2017 Contest: 38 Questions in Review, Part III

Back in August, I asked you 38 questions that served as prop bets for the 2017 NFL season. Thanks to the tireless work of Jeremy De Shelter, who helped compile all the results. Earlier this offseason, I looked at Part I and Part II. Let’s move on to Part III…

Number of playoff (non-Super Bowl) games won by the visiting team, +0.5
Maximum number of TDs thrown by Kirk Cousins in a single game

Cousins topped out at 3 passing TDs in a single game, done four times in 2017.  Meanwhile, road teams won… 3 games in the 2017 playoffs, with Atlanta and Tennessee winning on the road in the Wild Card round, and Jacksonville winning in Pittsburgh in the second round.

That Steelers loss was critical: only 39% of you picked the road playoff wins side, which means the Jaguars upset gave the minority group the win.

Punts by Jets opponents, -5
Jets team offensive passer rating.

The Jets were supposed to be terrible on offense and not too bad on defense, making this a tricky one to analyze.  The votes here were pretty split, with 53% of contestants voting for the Jets offensive passer rating side to be higher.  Jets opponents had 87 punts in the league last year the 4th most behind Jacksonville, Arizona, and Denver.

Meanwhile the Jets passing attack was surprisingly…. decent? New York finished with an 86.1 passer rating, slightly above the league average of 85.1, and 15th-best in the NFL.

In other words, this was a good line where the hook made the difference! The line finishes 82 vs. 86.1, swinging the side towards the brave 47% who backed the Jets passing attack.

Maximum receiving yards by a player from this group: Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, Greg Olsen
Maximum receiving yards by any other tight end in the NFL, +149

Gronk and Kelce were the two leaders in receiving yards last season, with 1,084 and 1,038, respectively.  And as it turned out, no other tight end was within 200 yards of either of them.  Eagles TE Zach Ertz finished the year third in receiving yards by a TE with 824, so the Gronk side wins 1,084 to 973.

This was a bet that sounded pretty good for the field, and 61% of you picked the field.  Olsen got injured, but this was one that needed injuries to all three or a surprise breakout performance.  That didn’t happen, giving another win for the minority vote.

Rushing yards per game by Leonard Fournette, -24
Rushing yards per game by Marshawn Lynch

This was a bet between two players who weren’t in the league in 2016, and to avoid giving too much weight to injuries, this was done on a per-game basis. This one turned out to be remarkably close: Fournette finished with an even 80 rushing yards per game over 13 games, while Lynch averaged 59.4 yards per game over 15 games.

This bet was evenly split, with 51% of you picking the Lynch side.  After including the hook, Lynch wins this best, 59.4 to 56.0.

Receiving yards by Christian McCaffrey
Rushing yards by Cam Newton, +85

This one featured a pair of Panthers, including a running back expected to be a big receiver and a quarterback who is a big rusher.  Cam Newton wound up leading all quarterbacks in rushing yards by a sizeable margin with 754 rushing yards.  Christian McCaffrey finished 5th among running backs in receiving yards with 651.

In other words…. Newton won this one by a wide margin.  McCaffrey had a strong year, and would have won if Newton had 565 rushing yards or fewer, which happened in 2014 and 2016.  So while Newton blew out McCaffrey, don’t blame the linemaker!  In fact, just 22% of you picked the Newton side to win, making this one of the biggest upsets of the season.

Games where Jared Goff is sacked at least 6 times
Number of head coaches who coach in week 1 and do not coach 16 games

As a rookie, Goff was sacked 7 times in one game, and had a terrible sack rate overall.  But his sophomore season was one for the ages, marking perhaps the biggest year over year increase ever.  So the Goff side received a big goose egg here.

In the pre-season, 41% of you picked the Goff side to be larger, and ties go to the minority side.  So if there were zero head coaches fired during the ’17 season, the Goff side would have won.  Alas, Ben McAdoo existed: he was fired after 12 games, making him the only head coach to coach in week 1 and not coach 16 games.  Score a win for the majority side.

Number of distinct 4,200 yard passers
Number of players in the Top 10 in receiving born in the 1990s

There were just 5 players in 2017 to throw for at least 4,200 yards last year, after 11 quarterbacks did it in 2016.  Meanwhile, 6 of the top 10 in receiving yards were 27 or younger in 2017, meaning they were born in the ’90s.   Antonio Brown, Julio JonesLarry Fitzgerald, and Rob Gronkowski were born in the ’80s, with the remainder all young enough to qualify.

Given how many passers eclipsed 4,200 yards in ’16, you won’t be surprised to hear that 75% of you took that side.  But, of course, score another win for the minority, as 25% of you guessed correctly that 6 would be greater than 5.

What do you think?

{ 0 comments }