After each of of the last five years, I’ve presented the AV-adjusted age of each roster in the NFL. Measuring team age in the NFL is tricky. You don’t want to calculate the average age of a 53-man roster and call that the “team age” because the age of a team’s starters is much more relevant than the age of a team’s reserves. The average age of a team’s starting lineup isn’t perfect, either. The age of the quarterback and key offensive and defensive players should count for more than the age of a less relevant starter. Ideally, you want to calculate a team’s average age by placing greater weight on the team’s most relevant players.
My solution has been to use the Approximate Value numbers from Pro-Football-Reference.com, and to calculate age using each player’s precise age as of September 1 of the year in question. Today, we will look at offenses; tomorrow, we will crunch these same numbers for team defenses. The table below shows the average AV-adjusted age of each offense, along with its total number of points of AV. Last year, the Rams, Jaguars, and Titans were the three youngest offenses. Each of those three are still in the top five this year, joined by the Bucs at #1 and the Seahawks at #4.
| Rk | Team | Off AV | Off Age |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 90 | 25.4 |
| 2 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 81 | 25.8 |
| 3 | Tennessee Titans | 111 | 25.8 |
| 4 | Seattle Seahawks | 101 | 25.9 |
| 5 | Los Angeles Rams | 52 | 25.9 |
| 6 | Houston Texans | 78 | 26.0 |
| 7 | Dallas Cowboys | 127 | 26.1 |
| 8 | Miami Dolphins | 92 | 26.1 |
| 9 | Kansas City Chiefs | 101 | 26.2 |
| 10 | Detroit Lions | 105 | 26.2 |
| 11 | Indianapolis Colts | 122 | 26.4 |
| 12 | Denver Broncos | 80 | 26.5 |
| 13 | Chicago Bears | 78 | 26.6 |
| 14 | Oakland Raiders | 110 | 26.6 |
| 15 | Cleveland Browns | 76 | 26.6 |
| 16 | New York Giants | 80 | 26.7 |
| 17 | Buffalo Bills | 115 | 27.0 |
| 18 | San Francisco 49ers | 76 | 27.1 |
| 19 | Cincinnati Bengals | 93 | 27.1 |
| 20 | Washington Redskins | 124 | 27.2 |
| 21 | Carolina Panthers | 86 | 27.3 |
| 22 | Minnesota Vikings | 92 | 27.3 |
| 23 | Green Bay Packers | 132 | 27.3 |
| 24 | Philadelphia Eagles | 96 | 27.4 |
| 25 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 114 | 27.6 |
| 26 | New York Jets | 71 | 27.8 |
| 27 | Atlanta Falcons | 154 | 28.0 |
| 28 | New England Patriots | 124 | 28.1 |
| 29 | San Diego Chargers | 103 | 28.1 |
| 30 | New Orleans Saints | 131 | 28.4 |
| 31 | Arizona Cardinals | 100 | 28.4 |
| 32 | Baltimore Ravens | 86 | 28.5 |
Let’s look at the Bucs a little more closely. Here’s how to read the table below. Quarterback Jameis Winston had 12 points of AV last year, which means he was responsible for 13.3% of Tampa Bay’s offensive AV. Remarkable, he was only 22.7 years old as of September 1st, 2016. The last column is simply the product of those two numbers; that number is meaningless in the abstract, but the sum of those numbers provides the team’s age-weighted AV. Because the offense’s QB, left tackle, and star skill position player were all around 23 years old last year, the Bucs offense could be set for years, and that’s before considering that the team drafted Alabama TE O.J. Howard in the first round and Penn State WR Chris Godwin in the third round of the 2017 Draft:
| Player | Pos | AV | Perc of Off AV | 9/1 Age | Age-Wt Variable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | QB | 12 | 13.3% | 22.7 | 3.0 |
| Mike Evans | WR | 10 | 11.1% | 23.0 | 2.6 |
| Donovan Smith | LT | 8 | 8.9% | 23.2 | 2.1 |
| Demar Dotson | RT | 7 | 7.8% | 30.9 | 2.4 |
| Kevin Pamphile | LG | 7 | 7.8% | 25.8 | 2.0 |
| Ali Marpet | RG | 7 | 7.8% | 23.4 | 1.8 |
| Joe Hawley | C | 6 | 6.7% | 27.9 | 1.9 |
| Cameron Brate | TE | 5 | 5.6% | 25.2 | 1.4 |
| Adam Humphries | WR | 5 | 5.6% | 23.6 | 1.3 |
| Doug Martin | RB | 4 | 4.4% | 27.6 | 1.2 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | RB | 4 | 4.4% | 26.6 | 1.2 |
| Russell Shepard | WR | 3 | 3.3% | 26.0 | 0.9 |
| Gosder Cherilus | T | 2 | 2.2% | 32.2 | 0.7 |
| Charles Sims | RB | 2 | 2.2% | 26.0 | 0.6 |
| Peyton Barber | RB | 2 | 2.2% | 22.2 | 0.5 |
| Vincent Jackson | WR | 1 | 1.1% | 33.6 | 0.4 |
| Antone Smith | RB | 1 | 1.1% | 31.0 | 0.3 |
| Evan Dietrich-Smith | OL | 1 | 1.1% | 30.1 | 0.3 |
| Cecil Shorts | WR | 1 | 1.1% | 28.7 | 0.3 |
| Freddie Martino | WR | 1 | 1.1% | 25.0 | 0.3 |
| Caleb Benenoch | T | 1 | 1.1% | 22.1 | 0.2 |
| Total | 90 | 100.0% | 25.4 |
The only notable starter last year over the age of 28 was Dotson, the team’s right tackle. This year, Tampa Bay did add an older player, but it filled a glaring hole in signing DeSean Jackson (31 in December) as the team’s other receiver. J.R. Sweezy, signed last season but inactive all year due to a back injury, is expected to replace Pamphile at left guard. That addition, along with Jackson, Howard, and Godwin, adds more reasons to be optimistic about Tampa bay’s offense. And while the Bucs need to figure out a solution at running back, the presence of Winston and Evans will give Tampa Bay more than enough to build around for the long term.
On the other hand, the Ravens appear to be in a very bad place. Not only is the offense bad, but it’s old. The passing game’s top six players were all in their thirties last year: QB Joe Flacco, the team’s offenses only two Pro Bowlers, linemen Marshal Yanda and Jeremy Zuttah, and the three leading receivers, Mike Wallace, Steve Smith, and Dennis Pitta. Since then, Smith has retired and Pitta was lost for the season (and possibly his career) this summer with yet another hip injury. A 29-year-old Jeremy Maclin is back, while Pitta will likely be replaced by Ben Watson, who turns 37 in December.
As always, a lack of success in the draft is the culprit. From 2013 to 2016, here’s what the Ravens did on offense in the first three rounds:
- 2013: zero picks
- 2014: TE Crockett Gillmore with the 99th pick (51 receptions in 3 seasons)
- 2015: WR Breshad Perriman in the first round and TE Maxx Williams in the second round. Perriman missed all of his rookie year with a knee injury, and then had 33 receptions last year. Williams had 32 receptions as a rookie, but played in four games with no receptions before being placed on injured reserve with a knee injury last year.
- 2016: LT Ronnie Stanley, who played well as a rookie.
Given that Flacco, now 32 years old, appears on the decline, the only way this offense would work is with a bunch of young skill position talent. That didn’t work last year, and there aren’t many reasons to expect the Ravens offense to be much younger – or better – in 2017.