Here are my NFL projected standings for 2014, but with a twist: I’m ranking the teams from most confident to least confident in their final records. In other words, these are rankings with implied variances, too. If you think this is just a way for me to have built-in excuses for missing on teams in the bottom ten, you are completely wrong and I would never do that.

1) Denver Broncos: 12-4

There may be no more exciting team to watch on the field than the Broncos. Of course, there’s no more boring team to talk about, which is why the Broncos take the place atop my confidence leaderboard. Absent a Peyton Manning injury, Denver will sleepwalk to 12 wins. Games against Seattle, San Francisco, and New England will be must-see television, and also serve to guard against predicting a 14-2 sort of season. The additions of DeMarcus Ware, T.J. Ward, and Aqib Talib, along with the return of Ryan Clady on offense, means the Broncos are fielding their deepest team of the Manning era.

2) New England Patriots: 12-4

Even when the Patriots aren’t very good, they still win 12 games. The offense has a lot of question marks at wide receiver, but Shane Vereen and Rob Gronkowski can mitigate those concerns when healthy. The defense has five Pro Bowl caliber players on defense with Vince Wilfork, Chandler Jones, Jerod Mayo, Darrelle Revis and Devin McCourty.  Three others — Rob Ninkovich, Dont’a Hightower, and Jamie Collins — look to be above-average starters, too. This should be the team’s best defense in a long time (and will be even better once Brandon Browner returns from suspension), which makes New England have a higher floor than any team in the NFL.

3) Seattle Seahawks: 12-4

Do you really need explanation here? The only reason I’ve got Seattle down at 3 instead of 1 is I see a bit more variance in their potential outlook.  The Seahawks are the clear best team in the league to me, so a 15-1 season isn’t out of the question; ^[1]For what it’s worth, while it’s a bit easier to be higher on Seattle after their strong performance in week 1, I did predict the Seahawks to win against Green Bay. of course, a very difficult schedule could lead to a 10-6 year, too.

4) Oakland Raiders: 5-11

What, you don’t see much variance in Oakland’s potential outlook this year, either? Weird. The Raiders have won 4 games in each of the past two years, and the team’s long-term outlook isn’t much rosier, either. Yes, the Raiders tried to assemble the 2009 Pro Bowl squad this offseason, but that won’t buy the team more than one extra win. On top of every other reason to be pessimistic about this team, Oakland has to face the rest of the AFC West and the NFC West. You might think that having Derek Carr as the team’s starter would increase their variance, but… I still don’t see more than six wins, and there’s enough talent on the team to win at least three games.

5) Cleveland Browns: 5-11

Sure, we might see Johnny Manziel sooner rather than later, but how much hope is there for any quarterback in Cleveland? With Josh Gordon suspended, the Browns wide receivers are Miles Austin, Andrew Hawkins, Travis Benjamin, Taylor Garbiel, and LaRon Byrd. The defense should be good-to-very good, but Cleveland has won 4 or 5 games in each of the last six years for a reason.

6) Cincinnati Bengals: 9-7

Andy Dalton may cap this team’s upside, but the Bengals still have one of the youngest and most talented rosters in the NFL. The team let offensive linemen Anthony Collins and Kyle Cook move on in free agency, and defensive end Michael Johnson departed after the Bucs offered him a huge contract. Cincinnati’s second best receiver, Marvin Jones, will miss about half of the season; add it all up, and I see just a bit of regression from last year’s 11-5 record, but the overall talent level ensures a winning record.

7) New Orleans Saints: 10-6

Over his last four years, Sean Payton’s Saints have won 11, 13, 11, and 13 games. The Saints made a couple of splashes this offseason, too, signing Jairus Byrd and drafting Brandon Cooks, who seems tailor-made for New Orleans’ offense.

So why not predict 11 or 12 wins? Like the Falcons, the Saints are a very top-heavy team, and would be highly sensitive to even a couple of injuries to the team’s best players. The offense is Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, ^[2]I still can’t believe that Colston/Brees are one of just eight pairings to go for 8,000 receiving yards. and a bunch of role players. The defense has five very good players in Byrd, Kenny Vaccarro, Cameron Jordan, Junior Galette, and Keenan Lewis. But depth is a big concern on defense, and the team is just two years removed from fielding the league’s worst defense in total yards, net yards per attempt, and yards per carry.

8) Green Bay Packers: 10-6

Opening night struggles aside, the Packers are one of only a handful of teams that can hope to field an elite offense and an above-average defense. It never happens, but a full season out of Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, and Randall Cobb could lead to pinball machine numbers. On paper, Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers look like a pair of dominant pass rushers, although injuries and age are bigger concerns in real life. From ’09 to ’13, Rodgers went 52-18, ^[3]Excluding the loss to the Bears last year where Rodgers exited the game early in the first quarter. for a winning percentage of 0.743. That projects to nearly a 12-win average season, so as long as Rodgers is healthy, you can pencil in the Pack for double digit wins.

9) Baltimore Ravens: 9-7

I’m not very high on Baltimore, but it’s hard to come up with reasons not to project at least 8 wins for this team. Consider:

• Baltimore won 8 games last year

• The Ravens had one of the worst running games ever last year; assuming the rushing attack approaches league-average this year, that will represent significant improvement.

• Last year, Dennis Pitta was limited to just four games and one start; the passing game should look better with Pitta and Steve Smith.

• The defense was pretty good last year, and rookie C.J. Mosley, Timmy Jernigan, and Terrence Brooks make the team even tougher up the middle.

Joe Flacco was bad last year, but it’s hard not seeing Baltimore coming up with at least 8 wins again this year.

10) Indianapolis Colts: 10-6

The Colts join the Bengals and Ravens as the AFC’s high floor/low ceiling teams.  One could envision a scenario where Andrew Luck has an MVP-caliber season throwing to T.Y. Hilton, Reggie Wayne, and Hakeem Nicks, but the defense, offensive line, and running game are still unimpressive even in that scenario.  Indianapolis has an easy schedule, so a 9+ win season seems almost certain.  But this team is still just three years removed from being the worst team in the NFL, and the overall talent level of this roster reflects that.

11) Jacksonville Jaguars: 5-11

As Bill Barnwell notes, and as impossible as it might seem, the Jaguars were lucky last year to get to 4 wins.  The roster is slowly being infused with legitimate starters, and players like Marqise Lee, Allen Robinson, Luke Joeckel, and Toby Gerhart  can give fans hope that the offense will be good once Blake Bortles takes over.  And Red Bryant, Roy Miller, Chris Clemons, Paul Posluszny, Jonathan Cyprien, and Alan Ball give Gus Bradley some tools to work with. But even though the Jaguars are a team on the rise, the Jaguars seem very likely to finish with four-to-six wins in 2014.

12) Philadelphia Eagles: 10-6

The gap between #11 Jacksonville and #12 Philadelphia is about as large as the typical rushing lane LeSean McCoy sees.  If someone tells you they have a firm handle on the 2014 Eagles, that person is lying to you.  I could see Philadelphia missing the playoffs or getting the 1 seed in the NFC, and it wouldn’t surprise me if that was also true in mid-December. No team can match Philadelphia’s running game, and the strength of this team is as much the offensive line as it is Chip Kelly.

But the defense is not very good, and nobody really knows what we’re going to get out of Nick Foles this year.  Remember, Foles was 8-2 as a starter last year, and that includes a loss to Dallas where Foles appeared to be suffering from concussion symptoms.  So a 13-3 season is possible; on the other hand, I could see the offense taking a step back in 2014 without DeSean Jackson (although Jeremy Maclin returns). If that happens, this defense isn’t good enough to carry the team anywhere, even in the NFC East.

13) San Francisco 49ers: 10-6

It’s a sign of how good of a coach Jim Harbaugh is that the 49ers still rank in the top half of my confidence rankings despite just about everything going wrong for this defense. Ray McDonald will probably suspended soon after being arrested and charged with felony domestic violence.  Aldon Smith is already suspended for the first nine games of the year. Justin Smith is 100 years old. NaVorro Bowman (knee) is probably going to be out longer than Smith.

The backup quarterback is Blaine Gabbert, which knocks down the 49ers’ expected wins total by at least one win. Even with Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco had the 3rd oldest offense in 2013, and that was before adding Steve Johnson and Brandon Lloyd.  The variance is not insignificant here, but I have a lot of faith in Harbaugh, Kaepernick, and Patrick Willis.

14) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-9

The variance here is more about the team’s upside than downside.  The Bucs went 4-12 last year, but the team had an SRS of -2.7, which indicates that the Bucs were much closer to league average than you would think.  Then:

• The team replaced Greg Schiano with Lovie Smith;
• Logan Mankins, Evan Dietrich-Smith, and Anthony Collins were added to the offensive line;
• The team replaced Greg Schiano with Lovie Smith;
• While Josh McCown isn’t anywhere near as good as his 2013 numbers, the offense should be better with McCown, a healthy Doug Martin, and rookies Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins;
• The team replaced Greg Schiano with Lovie Smith;
• Alterraun Verner, Michael Johnson, Mike Jenkins, and Clinton McDonald should make the defense (fueled by DPOY candidates Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David) even better, despite the loss of Darrelle Revis; and
• The team replaced Greg Schiano with Lovie Smith.

That’s seven reasons to expect the Bucs to be better, and the team wasn’t too bad last year, either.  There’s the possibility that McCown plays like a 35-year-old journeyman quarterback and the team has a repeat 4-12 season, but a 10-win season isn’t out of the question, either.

15) St. Louis Rams: 7-9

If you believe football is won in the trenches, you’ll be impressed to note that 7 of the team’s 9 starting linemen were drafted among the first 33 picks. What’s not to like about the Rams? Everything else. St. Louis could beat Denver but lose to Oakland; on a week-to-week basis, I don’t know if there will be a more inconsistent team in the league. Over the course of the season, that stuff should even out, but who knows.

16) Miami Dolphins: 8-8

Prior to one of the ugliest passing games ever, the Dolphins were 8-6 and coming off of a win over the Patriots. Even though our memories of the 2013 Dolphins are of a dysfunctional team that collapsed, Miami was really in great shape in late December. And that was with a miserable offensive line; conceivably, Ryan Tannehill could take a step forward with four new starters protecting him, most notably being Branden Albert on the blind side.

Tannehill and Mike Wallace are high variance players; so are three of the defense’s key players. Cameron Wake had 15 sacks in 2012, but 8.5 last year as he battled with injuries. Brent Grimes missed most of 2011 and 2012, but was outstanding at corner with the Dolphins last year. And Dion Jordan was the 3rd pick in the 2013 draft, but has yet to give the team much return on that pick. I don’t know how any of those players will wind up playing this year, but in the aggregate, an 8-8 record seems about right.

17) Buffalo Bills: 5-11

When you’re a bad team, at least aim to be a high-variance bad team! Unlike the Raiders or Browns, there are at least a few reasons for optimism in Buffalo. Could EJ Manuel and Doug Marrone make strides in year two, while leading a fast-break offense? Will Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, Marcell Dareus, and Jerry Hughes form the conference’s best pass rush for the second year in a row? Will C.J. Spiller and Sammy Watkins be the Bills’ modern version of Thurman Thomas and Andre Reed?

On the other hand, the team is coming off three straight 6-10 seasons, and the offense has never looked as ugly as it has this past preseason.  Manuel averaged 5.55 NY/A over 88 dropbacks in the preseason, which just about matches his performance during the regular season last year.  If that level of play continues in 2014, the Browns might own the number one pick in the 2015 draft, along with Cleveland’s own first round pick.

18) Dallas Cowboys: 6-10

I don’t recall a defense ever projecting to be as bad as this defense does.  Forget everything you might have heard about how bad the Cowboys defense was going to be all June, July and August. On September 3rd, the Cowboys signed Michael Sam. And while he’s on the practice squad now, he might already be one of the team’s top pass rushers. And, in case you forgot, he’s a 7th round draft pick who was cut by St. Louis a week ago.

On September 4th, the team announced that Rolando McClain — yes, the Rolando McClain you’re thinking of — would be the team’s starting middle linebacker.

The defense was horrible last year, and the best three players are now gone (DeMarcus Ware, Jason Hatcher, Sean Lee), to Denver, Washington, and injured reserve, respectively.   In the preseason, Dallas recorded just five sacks, and all five came from players who are no longer on the active roster.

Tony Romo, DeMarco Murray, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten form an outstanding set of quadruplets.  But the offense has no margin of error.  If those four stay healthy and play to their potential, the Cowboys could win the NFC East by having a great record in shoot outs.  One or two key injuries on offense, and the team will have a top-five pick in 2015.

19) San Diego Chargers: 9-7

There’s a big difference between 7-9 and 11-5, but the Chargers seem equally likely to finish with those records, hence their place at #19 on this list. San Diego finished 32nd in defensive DVOA last year; if the offense takes even a minor step back – and I think it will – the defense won’t provide much of a safety net.  Yes, San Diego beat Denver in Denver last year, but the Chargers also lost to the Titans, Raiders, and Texans last year. Philip Rivers is very good, but don’t fool yourself into thinking this is a predictable team.

20) Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-8

Here’s a look at the Steelers starting defense the last time the team made the playoffs (2011):

Defensive line: Ziggy Hood, Brett Keisel, and Casey Hampton
Projected 2014 DL: Cameron Heyward, Steve McLendon, Stephon Tuitt (R)
Linebackers: Lawrence Timmons, James Farrior, James Harrison, Lamarr Woodley
Projected 2014 LB: Timmons, Ryan Shazier (R), Jason Worilds, Jarvis Jones.
Defensive backs: Ryan Clark, Ike Taylor, William Gay, Troy Polamalu
Projected 2014 DB: Taylor, Cortez Allen, Polamalu, Mike Mitchell

Yes, Pittsburgh had a great defense three years ago. Now, just three of those starters remain, ^[4]Technically, Keisel may be the starter for Pittsburgh in week 1 over Tuitt, but expect the rookie to be the player who finishes the year with the most snaps at RDE. and one of them is Ike Taylor. In 2013, Pro Football Focus allocated only one cornerback with over 1,000 receiving yards allowed: it was Taylor.

Shazier will be just the third rookie defensive player to start the season opener for the Steelers in 40 years, joining Jack Ham and Kendrell Bell.  There’s enough talent for Pittsburgh to finish as a top-ten defense, but more than ever before, there’s a real possibility that the bottom falls out, and this is finally the year Dick LeBeau ages like Monte Kiffin or Dom Capers.

Ben Roethlisberger is too good to let the team fall too far, but that presumes Roethlisberger stays healthy.  If he goes down for a significant chunk of time — not out of the realm of possibility given who we’re talking about here — Pittsburgh probably finishes last in the division.  If he stays healthy and players like Shazier, Jones, and Tuitt revitalize the defense, and the Steelers could steal the division.

21) Atlanta Falcons: 9-7

Atlanta went from 13-3 in 2012 to 4-12 last year, so it’s not surprising that the Falcons come up as one of my more high-variance teams. Even if you pro-rate every season to 16 games, the 2013 Falcons became just the 8th team to see their win total drop by at least 9 wins from one season to the next.

For the second time in franchise history, the Falcons went from near Super Bowl champion to one of the worst teams in the league overnight. ^[5]At least this time, Atlanta got to draft Jake Matthews. On draft day in 1999, Atlanta traded its 2000 first round pick to Baltimore for the 42nd pick in the draft, because Atlanta was the defending … Continue reading At their best, Atlanta sports the NFC’s best QB/WR/WR trio this side of Green Bay in Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Roddy White.  At their worst, Atlanta sports a defense that’s bad in coverage and terrible at getting to the quarterback.  Think of Atlanta as the NFC South’s version of the Cowboys, but with organizational stability and a run defense. The Falcons aren’t going to be 4-12 again, but anywhere from 6-10 to 12-4 is on the table.

22) Tennessee Titans: 5-11

If Jake Locker gets hurt or fails to develop, the Titans could be the worst team in the NFL.  Ray Horton is a great defensive coach, but it’s felt like he’s bringing a square hole to a unit full of round pegs.  Will Jurrell Casey and Derrick Morgan excel outside of the 4-3 defense they’ve played in their whole careers?  The fact that the Titans just signed ex-Horton linebacker Quentin Groves a few days before the start of the season is just another sign (on top of everything we saw this preseason) that the Titans aren’t quite there yet defensively.  If I told you that the Titans would have the number one pick in the 2015 draft, would you fight me on that point? Shonn Greene is the team’s starting running back!

On the other hand, the team could have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter may be the next great wide receiver duo (it may take Jameis Winston to get them there, but give them time). And the schedule is a joke. You know about the six games against the AFC South; in addition, they get the NFC East, the Jets and the Chiefs, and the AFC North. Could Tennessee split with Houston and Indianapolis, sweep the Jags, and beat the Jets, Cowboys, Giants, and Browns? If so, the Titans would have 8 wins heading into the season finale in Washington. Is a 9-7 wild card berth out of the question? Probably, but the Titans are an even more hard-to-predict bad team than the Bills.

23) New York Jets: 8-8

On one hand, the Jets don’t feel that unpredictable to me: I feel pretty confident that they will finish as a league average team by most measures, whether it’s points differential, DVOA, or record. On the other hand, here are some weird things about the Jets:

• The offense might be better than the defense.  That’s actually possible.
• The Jets might have the best offense in New York. That’s actually possible. No really, it is.
• The Jets might have the worst defense in New York.

Quarterbacks make their biggest jumps from year one to year two, and that goes double for a quarterback like Geno Smith who was the youngest starter in the league last year. The additions of Eric Decker and Chris Johnson, the subtraction of Stephen Hill, and full years out of Jeremy Kerley and David Nelson will all make Smith a better player, too.  New York could go from having one of the three worst passing games in the NFL to an average one.  Mark Sanchez was roughly as bad as Smith during his rookie year, and the addition of Santonio Holmes helped turn Sanchez into something respectable in year two (and, presumably, the Jets have hope that Smith will be better than Sanchez).  If Smith fails to develop, Michael Vick is capable of leading an offense that is at least entertaining.

The bigger concern for the Jets may on defense, and it’s not just where you think it is. Everyone knows that the Jets are in trouble at cornerback, but to remind you:

• Dee Milliner, who was terrible for the first 80% of his rookie season, was expected to be the team’s top corner before he suffered a high ankle sprain that will keep him out of week one, at a minimum.
• Darrin Walls, who went undrafted in 2011 and has four career starts, is now the team’s top corner. And he looks quite a bit better than all of the other cornerbacks.
• Antonio Allen, the Jets 7th round pick at safety in 2012, was just converted to cornerback about three cups of coffee ago, and will now start on opening day at the position. Oh, and he suffered a concussion in the third preseason game.
• Kyle Wilson, public enemy number one of every Jets fan now that Santonio Holmes and Hill are gone, is the nickel corner.
• Leon McFadden, cut by the Browns on the final day of cuts, will probably play a key role for the Jets sooner rather than later.
• Phillip Adams is the team’s final cornerback; he has now played for more teams (five) than he has career starts (4)

So yes, the cornerback issue is real.  But while the front seven is considered the strength of the team, that’s really only with respect to run defense.  In a 3-4, the edge rushers are the outside linebackers.  For New York, the starters are Calvin Pace, who is the same age as Justin Smith (100), and Quinton Coples, who had only 4.5 sacks last year. It wouldn’t surprise me if Jason Babin leads the team in sacks, which says more about the Jets pass rush than it does Babin.  And the inside linebackers are either one step away from falling off a cliff (David Harris) or too green to count on (Demario Davis).

The Jets defense will go as far as Muhammad Wilkerson, Damon Harrison, and Sheldon Richardson take them. And that could be pretty far.  It’s not unreasonable to expect the team to be above-average on defense, average on offense, and win 9 or 10 games.  Then again, look at the passing attacks the Jets face in weeks two through seven: Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit, San Diego, Denver, New England.  Could New York start 1-6? If so, who knows where the season goes.

24) Minnesota Vikings: 7-9

The Vikings took Sharrif Floyd, Xavier Rhodes, and Cordarrelle Patterson in the first round last year. Then, with the 9th pick in the ’14 draft in May, Minnesota grabbed Anthony Barr.  And, of course, Adrian Peterson is still around. But the most important player on the team may be Teddy Bridgewater.  If the Vikings can get competent play out of their quarterback, they could be a playoff team as they were two years ago.  If the Vikings get Matt Cassel play out of their quarterback, they could finish with five wins for the second year in a row.

Playing in the NFC is brutal: as a result, Minnesota was listed as a favorite in just two games this season when Cantor released point spreads back in May. But there’s enough potential for a 10-win season to make Minnesota one of the tougher teams to project.

25) Chicago Bears: 8-8

The Bears backup quarterback is Jimmy Clausen. The Bears starting quarterback is Jay Cutler.

Jimmy Clausen is Jimmy Clausen. Jay Cutler missed five games last year, and six games in 2011.  Chicago will probably go 0-N in the N games started by Clausen. That’s the downside.  The upside? Jay Cutler-Matt Forte–Martellus Bennett–Alshon Jeffery–Brandon Marshall turns out to be the best 1-5 in the NFC.  Lamarr Houston and Jared Allen revitalize the defensive line, Jay Ratliff, Lance Briggs, and Charles Tillman still have something left in the tank, and the Bears go 11-5 and win the NFC North.

26) Carolina Panthers: 7-9
27) Kansas City Chiefs: 6-10

Let’s say you win 11 or 12 games. And the next year, you bring back your head coach, and your quarterback, and your top three or four players.  Can you still lose five more games the next season?

Okay, the Falcons already proved that you can, but with respect to the Panthers and Chiefs, it’s as though they’re begging to see how predictable a falloff can be.  Yes, Carolina still has Ron Rivera, Cam Newton, Luke Kuechly, Greg Hardy, Thomas Davis, Charles Johnson, Kawann Short, and Star Lotulelei.  Yes, Kansas City still has Andy Reid, Alex Smith, Jamaal Charles, Justin Houston, Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson, Eric Berry, and Dontari Poe. No, neither team has anybody else.

By virtue of returning the cores of their teams, both Carolina and Kansas City both have playoff aspirations.  By virtue of having two of the worst rosters in the NFL from players 8 through 53, both are being projected for losing records. The variance is high, but my glass if half empty.

28) Detroit Lions: 8-8

As Bill Barnwell points out, the Lions have been an incredible 6-14 in one-score games over the last two years. At some point, that has to reverse itself, right? Detroit’s skill position talent on offense is blinding, and would any of us be surprised if this is the year Matthew Stafford finally puts it together? I’m projecting Calvin Johnson to win Offensive Player of the Year, so yes, I think a top-five offense and an NFC North title is very possible.

On the other hand, there’s the defense.  The individual players are pretty good: even the non-household names have played well either last year or in 2012. But the defense has always been less than the sum of its parts. Was that a Detroit thing, or a Jim Schwartz thing? That question, along with another pair of high-variance teams in the division, makes it hard to get a read on Detroit.  It’s safe to predict the Lions at .500, but there’s no chance the Lions will get there in a mediocre ways.

29) Houston Texans: 7-9

Remember that Falcons chart above?  Well, only two teams in NFL history have ever lost 10 more games in one season than they had lost in the prior season: the 1994 Houston Oilers and 2013 Houston Texans. You may recall those Oilers teams from the NFL Network documentary last year; I don’t think twenty years from now, anyone is going to want to talk about the Gary Kubiak Texans.

A team that goes 12-4 one year and 2-14 the next is going to be one of the five hardest teams to predict in year three. The good? J.J. Watt, Andre Johnson, Arian Foster, Duane Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, and Jadeveon Clowney.

The bad? Ryan Fitzpatrick or Ryan Mallett taking snaps. Derek Newton is still the right tackle. Garrett Graham and Jay Prosch are starting skill position players. The team is on a 14-game losing streak.

Houston has the easiest schedule in the NFL; you can picture Watt/Clowney and Johnson/Foster/Hopkins being enough to lead the Texans back to double digit wins.  Then again, I’m not sure how much more Houston can expect to get out of Watt/Johnson/Hopkins this year than they did in 2013, when the team lost its final 14 games.  As a result, the variance is extraordinarily wide with the Texans.  Have I mentioned the team is on a 14-game losing streak?

30) Washington: 8-8

In 2012, Washington exceeded Vegas’ projections by four wins. In 2013, Washington fell five wins shy of Vegas’ eight-win line. And frankly, the 2014 team looks even more unpredictable than either of those teams. I think RG3 is in for a good year, although even my optimism has him coming in as the #15 statistical passer in 2014. And while the team finished 3-13 last year, having even mediocre special teams will go a long way towards bringing them closer to .500.  As a result, I’ve got Jay Gruden as my Coach of the Year, so I’m a believer in this team in 2014.

I’m also a realist.  Sure, I could see an 11-5 finish, with Alfred Morris running for 1600 yards while every one pretends he’s just an average back. Also, there’s the fact that Griffin was not blameless in the Shanaclan cold war, Gruden’s head coaching experience is limited to the AFL and the UFL, and DeSean Jackson could pull a Santonio Holmes at any moment. If Griffin gets injured, Kirk Cousins will show the world exactly how bad he is. The only good outcome there is Washington would actually get to use the #2 pick in the draft this time if that happens.

31) New York Giants: 7-9

Can we take a moment and acknowledge that not one, but TWO teams are less predictable than Washington? How incredible is the NFL?

Nobody knows what to expect from the Giants this year. They’re even crazier than the Jets. They may have a worse offense than the Jets and a better defense. We now live in bizzaro world. Eli Manning could lead the league in interceptions again, Tom Coughlin could retire at midseason, and the Giants could stumble to 3-13. The Giants first ten games are at Detroit, Arizona, Houston, at Washington, Atlanta, at Philadelphia, at Dallas, Indianapolis, at Seattle, San Francisco. Can you see a 2-8 start and a Coughlin retirement? I can.

I can also see Manning, Victor Cruz, and Rueben Randle doing enough on offense, while the defense plays better than the sum of its parts. The Giants could be an ugly 9-7, get into the playoffs, and somehow win the Super Bowl.  So everything is on the table with these Giants, except the possibility of the team playing well all year and winning it all.

The Giants are deep at both corner (Prince Amukamara, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Water Thurmond, Trumaine McBride) and safety (Stevie Brown, Antrel Rolle, Quintin Demps).  The pass rush could be good: it’s possible that Jason Pierre-Paul and Mathias Kiwanuka revert to prior form, Damontre Moore breaks out, and Robert Ayers, okay, well not everything is possible.  But the pieces are here to be a very good defense, and Perry Fewell did an outstanding job fielding good defenses most weeks despite being devastated by injuries.

But the wild card remains Manning. After adjusting for his easy schedule in 2013, Manning provided more negative value than any other quarterback in football.  Two years ago, he was one of the best quarterbacks in football.  The evidence indicates that Manning’s drastic decline is not going to reverse itself, but nothing about Manning or the Giants ever makes sense.

32) Arizona Cardinals: 7-9

The 2013 Cardinals had an SRS grade of +6.4, the best by any team in franchise history since 1970, during John Abraham‘s rookie year. Arizona was everyone’s favorite Cinderella last December, but instead wound up being one of the best teams to never make the playoffs. But since the 2013 season ended, almost nothing has gone right for Arizona.

• When I calculated my AV-adjusted team ages, Arizona was discovered to be the oldest team in the NFL in 2013.

• The 2014 schedule featured not just the NFC West and AFC West, but Atlanta, Detroit, and the NFC East. Arizona plays Oakland and… that’s about the only easy game on the schedule, which is why the Cards have the toughest projected schedule in the league.

• The next indicator: Vegas set the Cardinals’ wins total at just seven for 2014.

• Andrew Healy has been leading the charge that 2014 is not going to be a very good year in the desert.

• Over at FiveThirtyEight, I explained why the team’s run defense could go from excellent to very bad overnight.

That’s the bad. But there’s also the good. Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown could form the best trio of receivers in the NFL. Andre Ellington, initially feared to be out for awhile, may be ready to play as early as Monday night. Carson Palmer stays upright with Jared Veldheer and Jonathan Cooper protecting him.  John Abraham records another 10+ sacks. Patrick Peterson becomes the best cornerback on the planet. Calais Campbell inches closer to J.J. Watt territory. Kevin Minter and Tyrann Mathieu play like they did at LSU. Antonio Cromartie plays like he did in 2012.  The 49ers drop off, the Cardinals win in Seattle for the second straight year, and then win the NFC West at 11-5.

Nobody knows what will happen in 2014. For no team is that statement more true than Arizona.