Entering week 14, the top of the 2019 NFL Draft order was San Francisco at 1, Oakland at 2, and the New York Jets at 3. All three teams promptly won in week 14. The Los Angeles Rams were 11-1, and promptly got embarrassed by the Chicago Bears; Jared Goff, who had never thrown more than 2 interceptions in a game, threw 4 interceptions against a punishing Bears defense. The Oakland Raiders won as 10.5-point underdogs against Pittsburgh, but depending on when you measure it, there was en even more shocking result. The Miami Dolphins were 9.5-point underdogs against the Patriots, trailed by 5 points with 7 seconds left and 69 yards to go, and still won.
In a week like this one, the Texans seeing their 9-game winning streak end at home against the Colts doesn’t quite register as surprising. And the Browns beating anyone, let alone the Panthers? Well, that’s not even a top-5 upset. The table below shows each upset this season, based upon the — as of right now — SRS ratings of each team this year. Here’s how to read it: in week 14, Oakland beat Pittsburgh, 24-21. Oakland has an SRS of -9.1, while the Steelers have an SRS of +5.1. That’s a difference of -14.2 points. There were 6 upsets this week, and a Minnesota upset in Seattle tonight would bring that total to 7.
| Week | Winning Team | Losing Team | PF | PA | Win Tm SRS | Los Tm SRS | SRS Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Oakland Raiders | Pittsburgh Steelers | 24 | 21 | -9.1 | 5.1 | -14.2 |
| 14 | Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | 34 | 33 | -5.9 | 4.5 | -10.4 |
| 14 | San Francisco 49ers | Denver Broncos | 20 | 14 | -6 | 2.3 | -8.3 |
| 14 | Chicago Bears | Los Angeles Rams | 15 | 6 | 6.6 | 10.2 | -3.6 |
| 14 | Indianapolis Colts | Houston Texans | 24 | 21 | 1.1 | 3.5 | -2.4 |
| 14 | Cleveland Browns | Carolina Panthers | 26 | 20 | -1.6 | -0.9 | -0.7 |
| 13 | Dallas Cowboys | New Orleans Saints | 13 | 10 | 1.9 | 12.3 | -10.4 |
| 13 | Arizona Cardinals | Green Bay Packers | 20 | 17 | -10.8 | -0.6 | -10.2 |
| 13 | New York Giants | Chicago Bears | 30 | 27 | -1.9 | 6.6 | -8.5 |
| 13 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Indianapolis Colts | 6 | 0 | -4.3 | 1.1 | -5.4 |
| 13 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Carolina Panthers | 24 | 17 | -3.1 | -0.9 | -2.2 |
| 12 | Buffalo Bills | Jacksonville Jaguars | 24 | 21 | -8.6 | -4.3 | -4.3 |
| 12 | Denver Broncos | Pittsburgh Steelers | 24 | 17 | 2.3 | 5.1 | -2.8 |
| 11 | Denver Broncos | Los Angeles Chargers | 23 | 22 | 2.3 | 5.9 | -3.6 |
| 11 | Detroit Lions | Carolina Panthers | 20 | 19 | -3.4 | -0.9 | -2.5 |
| 10 | Tennessee Titans | New England Patriots | 34 | 10 | -0.3 | 4.5 | -4.8 |
| 10 | Buffalo Bills | New York Jets | 41 | 10 | -8.6 | -6.3 | -2.3 |
| 10 | Washington Redskins | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 16 | 3 | -4.1 | -3.1 | -1 |
| 9 | Tennessee Titans | Dallas Cowboys | 28 | 14 | -0.3 | 1.9 | -2.2 |
| 9 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Baltimore Ravens | 23 | 16 | 5.1 | 6.5 | -1.4 |
| 8 | Carolina Panthers | Baltimore Ravens | 36 | 21 | -0.9 | 6.5 | -7.4 |
| 8 | Arizona Cardinals | San Francisco 49ers | 18 | 15 | -10.8 | -6 | -4.8 |
| 8 | Washington Redskins | New York Giants | 20 | 13 | -4.1 | -1.9 | -2.2 |
| 8 | Cincinnati Bengals | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 37 | 34 | -4.4 | -3.1 | -1.3 |
| 7 | Washington Redskins | Dallas Cowboys | 20 | 17 | -4.1 | 1.9 | -6 |
| 7 | New England Patriots | Chicago Bears | 38 | 31 | 4.5 | 6.6 | -2.1 |
| 7 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Cleveland Browns | 26 | 23 | -3.1 | -1.6 | -1.5 |
| 7 | Atlanta Falcons | New York Giants | 23 | 20 | -2.5 | -1.9 | -0.6 |
| 6 | Miami Dolphins | Chicago Bears | 31 | 28 | -5.9 | 6.6 | -12.5 |
| 6 | New York Jets | Indianapolis Colts | 42 | 34 | -6.3 | 1.1 | -7.4 |
| 6 | New England Patriots | Kansas City Chiefs | 43 | 40 | 4.5 | 9.5 | -5 |
| 6 | Washington Redskins | Carolina Panthers | 23 | 17 | -4.1 | -0.9 | -3.2 |
| 5 | New York Jets | Denver Broncos | 34 | 16 | -6.3 | 2.3 | -8.6 |
| 5 | Buffalo Bills | Tennessee Titans | 13 | 12 | -8.6 | -0.3 | -8.3 |
| 5 | Cleveland Browns | Baltimore Ravens | 12 | 9 | -1.6 | 6.5 | -8.1 |
| 5 | Arizona Cardinals | San Francisco 49ers | 28 | 18 | -10.8 | -6 | -4.8 |
| 5 | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers | 31 | 23 | -3.4 | -0.6 | -2.8 |
| 4 | Oakland Raiders | Cleveland Browns | 45 | 42 | -9.1 | -1.6 | -7.5 |
| 4 | Cincinnati Bengals | Atlanta Falcons | 37 | 36 | -4.4 | -2.5 | -1.9 |
| 3 | Buffalo Bills | Minnesota Vikings | 27 | 6 | -8.6 | 0.1 | -8.7 |
| 3 | Detroit Lions | New England Patriots | 26 | 10 | -3.4 | 4.5 | -7.9 |
| 3 | New York Giants | Houston Texans | 27 | 22 | -1.9 | 3.5 | -5.4 |
| 3 | Washington Redskins | Green Bay Packers | 31 | 17 | -4.1 | -0.6 | -3.5 |
| 3 | Philadelphia Eagles | Indianapolis Colts | 20 | 16 | -1.4 | 1.1 | -2.5 |
| 2 | Cincinnati Bengals | Baltimore Ravens | 34 | 23 | -4.4 | 6.5 | -10.9 |
| 2 | Jacksonville Jaguars | New England Patriots | 31 | 20 | -4.3 | 4.5 | -8.8 |
| 2 | Tennessee Titans | Houston Texans | 20 | 17 | -0.3 | 3.5 | -3.8 |
| 2 | San Francisco 49ers | Detroit Lions | 30 | 27 | -6 | -3.4 | -2.6 |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Philadelphia Eagles | 27 | 21 | -3.1 | -1.4 | -1.7 |
| 2 | Atlanta Falcons | Carolina Panthers | 31 | 24 | -2.5 | -0.9 | -1.6 |
| 2 | Minnesota Vikings | Green Bay Packers | 29 | 29 | 0.1 | -0.6 | -0.35 |
| 1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | New Orleans Saints | 48 | 40 | -3.1 | 12.3 | -15.4 |
| 1 | Green Bay Packers | Chicago Bears | 24 | 23 | -0.6 | 6.6 | -7.2 |
| 1 | Miami Dolphins | Tennessee Titans | 27 | 20 | -5.9 | -0.3 | -5.6 |
| 1 | Cincinnati Bengals | Indianapolis Colts | 34 | 23 | -4.4 | 1.1 | -5.5 |
| 1 | Denver Broncos | Seattle Seahawks | 27 | 24 | 2.3 | 5.9 | -3.6 |
| 1 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Cleveland Browns | 21 | 21 | 5.1 | -1.6 | -3.35 |
| 1 | New York Jets | Detroit Lions | 48 | 17 | -6.3 | -3.4 | -2.9 |
| 1 | Carolina Panthers | Dallas Cowboys | 16 | 8 | -0.9 | 1.9 | -2.8 |
| 1 | Jacksonville Jaguars | New York Giants | 20 | 15 | -4.3 | -1.9 | -2.4 |
How does that compare to other weeks? Six upsets are the most since week 2, but the magnitude is also notable. I calculated the “difference” column — that is, how many points the underdog was worse than the favorite, by SRS — for each week. So in week 14, you had the Raiders winning with a difference of -14, the Dolphins winning at -10, the 49ers at -8, the Bears at -4, the Colts at -2, and the Browns at -1. That’s a total of -39 points, which makes this the wildest week of the season since opening week.
| Wk | #Games | Upset Points | Upsets |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | -49 | 9 |
| 2 | 16 | -30 | 7 |
| 3 | 16 | -28 | 5 |
| 4 | 15 | -9 | 2 |
| 5 | 15 | -33 | 5 |
| 6 | 15 | -28 | 4 |
| 7 | 14 | -10 | 4 |
| 8 | 14 | -16 | 4 |
| 9 | 13 | -4 | 2 |
| 10 | 14 | -8 | 3 |
| 11 | 13 | -6 | 2 |
| 12 | 15 | -7 | 2 |
| 13 | 16 | -37 | 5 |
| 14 | 15 | -39 | 6 |
What happened week 1? Well, the Bucs beat the Saints (-15), the Packers beat the Bears (-7), the Dolphins beat the Titans (-6), the Bengals beat the Colts (-6), the Broncos beat the Seahawks (-4), the Jets beat the Lions (-3), the Panthers beat the Cowboys (-3), and the Jaguars beat the Giants (-2). Yeah, that was a pretty crazy week… in retrospect.