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The Curtain Closes Again On Ryan Fitzpatrick

Ryan Fitzpatrick has been benched in Miami in favor of Tua Tagovila. This doesn’t come as a big surprise, of course: Fitzpatrick is a 38-year-old journeyman who is always on the verge of being benched for the next big thing.

But Fitzpatrick’s career has been fascinating to watch. I calculated his Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt for each game of his career, and then compared that to league average for that season. That is plotted in the graph below: the X-axis is each game of his career in chronological order, the Y-Axis is how many Adjusted Net Yards of value he added over average, and the size of the dot represents how many dropbacks he had. And, of course, given that this is Fitzpatrick, it is color-coded by team:

The story is one of generally trending upwards, with a few really big outliers in both directions.

In St. Louis he was mostly a backup; in Cincinnati, he started but was not very good. He began to break out in Buffalo, peppering in some good games among a lot of mediocre ones. Then in Tennessee, it was more of the same, and he looked like a nondescript journeyman quarterback. Following the 2013 season, Fitzpatrick was 31 years old and had a career record of 27-49-1.

But then something happened. In Houston, he went 6-6, including that remarkable game at the top of the chart: yes, that’s Fitzpatrick with a 6-TD game. He then went to the Jets and had a breakout season, going 10-6 as the starter but the clock struck midnight in the final regular season game, a ‘win and you’re in’ game where Fitzpatrick turned into a pumpkin. The next year, he had one of the worst games of his or anyone’s career: that green dot at the bottom is in fact his 6-INT game against the Chiefs.

Fitzpatrick then moved to Florida like every other old person in New York, and … played pretty well. He began his second season with the Bucs with a monster 17.75 ANY/A game in the season opener, which you can see at the top right of the chart. Fitzpatrick split time with Jameis Winston, but wound up leading the entire NFL in net yards per pass attempt in 2018. His time is Tampa Bay, surrounded by a host of quality weapons, was the highlight of his career.

He then went further south to Miami, and … had an absolutely miserable game off the bench against the great ’19 Patriots pass defense. But otherwise, his time in Miami has been like his other performances in his career: some highs, some lows, and a benching in favor of the next big thing.

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