The 1968 Cardinals and Outlier Teams

by Chase Stuart on July 23, 2016

Hart had a great career, but was still developing in ’68

In 1968, the St. Louis Cardinals did not have a very good passing offense. The Cardinals averaged 3.9 ANY/A, good enough for 11th place in a 17-team league where the league average was 4.5. The main issue? St. Louis finished dead last with an anemic 44% completion rate. That was mostly due to the second-year starter, 24-year-old Jim Hart. His 44.3% completion rate remains the lowest by any Cardinals quarterback in history with a minimum of 300 pass attempts, and no quarterback with even 160 pass attempts for the Cardinals has dipped below 45% since Hart in ’68. The defense was also below-average against the pass: the Cardinals allowed 6.2 ANY/A, 5th worst in the NFL.

Teams that are below-average at passing and stopping the pass are usually not very good. In the Super Bowl era, each additional yard of ANY/A (on either offense or defense) relative to league average increases a team’s winning percentage by about nine percent. The Cardinals, at -0.5 Relative ANY/A on offense and -1.7 RANY/A on defense, would therefore be expected to win about 30% of their games. Instead, the Cards won 68% of games, going 9-4-1.

The table below shows the 100 teams of the Super Bowl era that have most exceeded expectations based on Offensive and Defensive RANY/A. In general, using ANY/A and RANY/A will get you most of the way there with a team’s record, but not for these teams. The Cardinals had an Off RANY/A of -0.52, a Def RANY/A of -1.72, and therefore, an expected winning percentage of 0.296. By having an actual winning percentage of 0.679, the Cardinals exceeded expectations by 6.1 wins per 16 games.

Rk	Team	Year	Off RANY/A	Def RANY/A	Exp Win %	Win %	Diff
1	St. Louis Cardinals	1968	-0.52	-1.72	0.296	0.679	6.1
2	Buffalo Bills	1973	-2.05	-0.43	0.276	0.643	5.9
3	Chicago Bears	1968	-1.91	-2.03	0.141	0.500	5.7
4	Philadelphia Eagles	1966	-1.41	-0.37	0.340	0.643	4.8
5	Cleveland Browns	1973	-1.98	-0.56	0.271	0.571	4.8
6	New York Giants	1986	0.03	0.79	0.578	0.875	4.8
7	Los Angeles Raiders	1982	0.35	0.65	0.593	0.889	4.7
8	Chicago Bears	2001	-0.36	0.57	0.522	0.813	4.7
9	Tennessee Titans	1999	0.91	-0.54	0.534	0.813	4.5
10	Miami Dolphins	1981	-0.14	-0.45	0.447	0.719	4.3
11	Atlanta Falcons	2004	-1.16	0.23	0.419	0.688	4.3
12	Indianapolis Colts	2012	-0.29	-0.61	0.420	0.688	4.3
13	Houston Oilers	1967	-1.97	0.98	0.414	0.679	4.2
14	Los Angeles Raiders	1985	-0.37	0.22	0.489	0.750	4.2
15	Cleveland Browns	1972	-0.65	0.17	0.458	0.714	4.1
16	Dallas Cowboys	1972	-0.19	-0.26	0.460	0.714	4.1
17	Denver Broncos	1984	-0.04	0.72	0.565	0.813	4.0
18	Kansas City Chiefs	1997	0.25	0.50	0.571	0.813	3.9
19	Chicago Bears	1987	-0.47	0.37	0.493	0.733	3.8
20	Pittsburgh Steelers	2004	0.80	1.33	0.697	0.938	3.8
21	Detroit Lions	1991	-0.20	0.31	0.512	0.750	3.8
22	Miami Dolphins	1970	0.03	-0.25	0.481	0.714	3.7
23	Baltimore Colts	1978	-1.59	-2.99	0.081	0.313	3.7
24	Atlanta Falcons	1998	1.55	0.02	0.644	0.875	3.7
25	Baltimore Colts	1969	0.05	-1.38	0.379	0.607	3.7
26	Minnesota Vikings	2012	-0.94	-0.19	0.399	0.625	3.6
27	Minnesota Vikings	2015	-0.65	0.21	0.463	0.688	3.6
28	New York Jets	1986	0.61	-1.68	0.402	0.625	3.6
29	Atlanta Falcons	2010	0.47	0.50	0.590	0.813	3.6
30	New England Patriots	1976	-0.39	1.05	0.564	0.786	3.6
31	Oakland Raiders	1977	0.61	0.08	0.565	0.786	3.5
32	Chicago Bears	1986	-0.69	2.33	0.655	0.875	3.5
33	Jacksonville Jaguars	1999	0.63	1.04	0.655	0.875	3.5
34	Washington Redskins	1982	1.25	0.59	0.670	0.889	3.5
35	Indianapolis Colts	1999	1.64	-0.59	0.596	0.813	3.5
36	Dallas Cowboys	1983	0.65	-0.29	0.534	0.750	3.5
37	Kansas City Chiefs	1995	0.00	1.02	0.597	0.813	3.4
38	Los Angeles Rams	1984	-0.65	-0.35	0.410	0.625	3.4
39	Denver Broncos	1977	0.92	0.64	0.645	0.857	3.4
40	St. Louis Cardinals	1982	-0.41	-1.30	0.344	0.556	3.4
41	Philadelphia Eagles	2003	0.23	0.19	0.541	0.750	3.3
42	Jacksonville Jaguars	2010	-0.53	-1.75	0.293	0.500	3.3
43	Denver Broncos	1998	1.73	0.09	0.668	0.875	3.3
44	Houston Oilers	1975	-0.34	0.39	0.507	0.714	3.3
45	Denver Broncos	2015	-1.12	1.56	0.544	0.750	3.3
46	Oakland Raiders	1976	3.02	-0.57	0.723	0.929	3.3
47	Pittsburgh Steelers	1987	-1.97	0.04	0.327	0.533	3.3
48	Baltimore Ravens	2000	-0.89	1.33	0.544	0.750	3.3
49	Miami Dolphins	1974	1.29	-0.41	0.581	0.786	3.3
50	New England Patriots	2008	0.30	-0.50	0.483	0.688	3.3
51	Detroit Lions	1969	-1.89	1.59	0.478	0.679	3.2
52	San Francisco 49ers	1990	1.19	0.71	0.676	0.875	3.2
53	New York Jets	1975	-1.68	-3.62	0.015	0.214	3.2
54	New England Patriots	2013	0.25	0.29	0.551	0.750	3.2
55	Houston Oilers	1993	-0.24	0.77	0.552	0.750	3.2
56	Buffalo Bills	1983	-1.01	-1.18	0.302	0.500	3.2
57	Boston Patriots	1966	0.35	-0.93	0.447	0.643	3.1
58	Indianapolis Colts	1988	-0.60	-0.86	0.368	0.563	3.1
59	San Diego Chargers	2006	1.38	0.58	0.681	0.875	3.1
60	San Francisco 49ers	2011	0.29	0.97	0.618	0.813	3.1
61	Washington Redskins	1986	0.87	-0.25	0.557	0.750	3.1
62	New York Jets	2010	-0.29	0.22	0.496	0.688	3.1
63	Chicago Bears	2006	-0.24	1.52	0.621	0.813	3.1
64	Minnesota Vikings	1971	-1.10	2.10	0.597	0.786	3.0
65	New England Patriots	2004	1.29	0.73	0.686	0.875	3.0
66	Oakland Raiders	1971	-0.22	-0.30	0.454	0.643	3.0
67	New England Patriots	1972	-1.94	-3.24	0.027	0.214	3.0
68	New England Patriots	1978	0.74	-0.74	0.501	0.688	3.0
69	Carolina Panthers	2015	0.91	1.81	0.752	0.938	3.0
70	Philadelphia Eagles	2014	-0.09	-0.58	0.441	0.625	3.0
71	New York Giants	2007	-0.77	0.10	0.441	0.625	2.9
72	New England Patriots	1988	-2.22	0.84	0.379	0.563	2.9
73	Houston Texans	2012	0.40	0.31	0.566	0.750	2.9
74	Dallas Cowboys	1991	0.71	-0.67	0.504	0.688	2.9
75	Arizona Cardinals	2014	0.05	-0.02	0.504	0.688	2.9
76	Cleveland Browns	1967	-0.15	-0.31	0.460	0.643	2.9
77	Atlanta Falcons	2012	1.09	0.32	0.630	0.813	2.9
78	Buffalo Bills	1993	0.39	0.34	0.568	0.750	2.9
79	Indianapolis Colts	2009	1.42	0.68	0.694	0.875	2.9
80	New York Jets	2013	-1.69	-0.32	0.319	0.500	2.9
81	Denver Broncos	1996	0.48	0.94	0.632	0.813	2.9
82	Denver Broncos	1980	-1.08	-0.89	0.321	0.500	2.9
83	Cleveland Browns	1969	0.80	-0.03	0.572	0.750	2.8
84	New York Jets	1979	-0.14	-1.79	0.323	0.500	2.8
85	Indianapolis Colts	2013	0.21	-0.11	0.511	0.688	2.8
86	Dallas Cowboys	1980	0.51	0.28	0.574	0.750	2.8
87	Oakland Raiders	1981	-1.62	-1.01	0.262	0.438	2.8
88	Pittsburgh Steelers	2001	0.77	0.71	0.637	0.813	2.8
89	Chicago Bears	2005	-1.90	1.97	0.513	0.688	2.8
90	Chicago Bears	2010	-0.89	0.99	0.513	0.688	2.8
91	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2005	-0.42	0.53	0.513	0.688	2.8
92	Los Angeles Raiders	1983	0.34	0.47	0.577	0.750	2.8
93	New York Giants	1977	-2.10	-1.38	0.184	0.357	2.8
94	New York Giants	1989	0.26	0.57	0.577	0.750	2.8
95	Miami Dolphins	1985	1.50	-0.65	0.578	0.750	2.8
96	Seattle Seahawks	2006	-0.77	-0.45	0.390	0.563	2.8
97	St. Louis Rams	2003	0.06	0.76	0.578	0.750	2.8
98	Denver Broncos	1992	-1.18	-0.71	0.329	0.500	2.7
99	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1995	-1.58	-0.96	0.270	0.438	2.7
100	Houston Oilers	1980	-0.69	0.87	0.520	0.688	2.7

The obvious question to ask, then, is why? Why were these Cardinals so successful despite struggling to pass and stop the pass? The Cards were good in one-score games — 4-0-1 — but St. Louis still had a points differential of +2.6 points per game. This wasn’t just a bad team that got lucky. There are a few reasons.

The Cardinals were 4th in rushing yards, 4th in rushing first downs, 5th in yards per carry, and tied for 1st in rushing touchdowns. Fullback Willis Crenshaw led the way, but the Cardinals also benefited from TE Jackie Smith (12/163) and wide receiver Dave Williams (3/47) gaining 210 yards on just 15 carries. St. Louis had a great offensive line with Bob Reynolds, Irv Goode, Bob DeMarco, Ken Gray, and Ernie McMillan all making the Pro Bowl in either ’67 or ’68.

On defense, St. Louis ranked between 4th and 6th in rushing yards, yards per carry, rushing touchdowns, and rushing first downs.

The Cardinals also had great special teams. Chuck Latourette led the NFL in both punt return yards and kickoff return yards, while also leading the NFL in punt return average and ranking second in kickoff return average. Latourette added 135 yards of value as a punt returner and 251 yards of value as a kickoff returner.

Opposing kickers against St. Louis hit just 15 of 33 attempts; that 45.5% rate was ten percent below the league average. Meanwhile, Jim Bakken made 15 of 24 attempts.

Passing is more than half of the game, but the running game and special teams can tilt things in a close game. The Cardinals went 9-4-1 in ’68, but the script flipped the following year: St. Louis went 4-9-1.

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