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Resting Starters Database

Adam Steele is back for another guest post. You can view all of Adam’s posts here. As always, we thank him for contributing.


In the same vein as Bryan Frye’s kneel, spike, and first down data and Tom McDermott’s adjusted SRS ratings, I want to contribute some corrections in data distortion. From a stat geek’s perspective, there’s nothing more annoying than strong teams resting their starters in the final week of the season, as it pollutes season long statistics with a game’s worth of junk data. In a 16 game season, even one meaningless outlier can have a big impact on season totals and averages. The most egregious example is the 2004 Eagles, who stormed out to a dominant 13-1 start only to mail in their final two games by a combined score of 58-17. Philly’s season totals look far better (and far more accurate) once those two meaningless games are removed from the sample. I went back to 1993 and noted every game where one team sat their starters and/or played vanilla football with no intention of trying to win. In some instances, a team was clearly going full bore in the first half, then waved the white flag after halftime. In these games, I pulled out the junk data from the second half only.

There are obviously going to be some judgment calls in deciding whether or not a team was really trying to win a given game. For example, this past season’s week 17 matchup between Seattle and Arizona could be viewed two different ways – Arizona was trying to win (at least in the first half) and Seattle just stomped them, or the Cards weren’t really trying even though their starters played the first half. I chose the latter. The one notable game I purposely left out was the week 17 Packers/Lions shootout from 2011. The game was technically meaningless for both teams, and Green Bay kept Rodgers on the bench, but otherwise all the starters played and were clearly playing to win. If the Packers didn’t care, Matt Flynn would not have thrown six TD passes. If you dispute any of the games I’ve listed, I’m happy to discuss and reconsider!

How to read the table: The first five rows are self-explanatory; “Type” designates whether the whole game should be discarded or just the second half; Points, PaTD, and RuTD indicate the points and offensive touchdowns scored during junk time (the stats I believe should be removed from the season data). Defensive numbers can be found by simply looking at the offensive numbers from the team’s opponent.

Team-OppYearWkTypePtsPaTDRuTD
TEN@IND201517Full2412
INDTEN201517Full3020
SEA@ARI201517Full3631
ARISEA201517Full610
WAS@DAL201517Half1010
DALWAS201517Half910
BUF@NE201417Full1711
NEBUF201417Full900
DEN@OAK201317Half300
OAKDEN201317Half1420
BAL@CIN201217Full1702
CINBAL201217Full2310
TB@ATL201117Full2420
ATLTB201117Full4523
OAK@KC201017Full3112
KCOAK201017Full1001
TB@NO201017Half1310
NOTB201017Half600
CIN@NYJ200917Full000
NYJCIN200917Full3704
GB@ARI200917Full3312
ARIGB200917Full710
IND@BUF200917Full701
BUFIND200917Full3030
NYJ@IND200916Half2601
INDNYJ200916Half601
TB@NO200916Half1701
NOTB200916Half000
NE@HOU200917Half1401
HOUNE200917Half2112
NO@CAR200917Full1001
CARNO200917Full2311
ARI@NE200816Full710
NEARI200816Full4732
TEN@IND200817Full000
INDTEN200817Full2310
TEN@IND200717Full1601
INDTEN200717Full1010
SEA@ATL200717Half2421
ATLSEA200717Half2730
IND@SEA200516Full1310
SEAIND200516Full2822
CIN@KC200517Full300
KCCIN200517Full3713
ARI@IND200517Full1310
INDARI200517Full1720
SEA@GB200517Full1711
GBSEA200517Full2311
MIA@NE200517Half1510
NEMIA200517Half1620
PHI@STL200416Full710
STLPHI200416Full2011
ATL@NO200416Full1301
NOATL200416Full2611
ATL@SEA200417Full2620
SEAATL200417Full2822
IND@DEN200417Full1420
DENIND200417Full3321
PIT@BUF200417Full2910
BUFPIT200417Full2402
NYJ@STL200417Full2910
STLNYJ200417Full3231
CIN@PHI200417Full3813
PHICIN200417Full1010
DEN@GB200317Full300
GBDEN200317Full3112
PHI@TB200117Full1720
TBPHI200117Full1301
TEN@PIT199917Half1610
PITTEN199917Half2921
STL@PHI199917Half1420
PHISTL199917Half2110
SF@SEA199717Full900
SEASF199717Full3841
PIT@TEN199717Full600
TENPIT199717Full1601
DEN@SD199617Full1001
SDDEN199617Full1610
SF@MIN199417Full1420
MINSF199417Full2101
DAL@NYG199417Full1001
NYGDAL199417Full1510
PIT@SD199417Half2121
SDPIT199417Half2002
PHI@SF199318Full3730
SFPHI199318Full3422

My plan is to eventually do this all the way back to 1970, then publish the “real” points scored and allowed for each team by prorating the pristine data to a full season.

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