Back in December 2009, Jason Lisk wrote about a recent trend in the NFL: quarterbacks throwing for 300 passing yards and actually winning. Jason wondered whether that was something fluky, or a sign of the shifting nature of the NFL. With the benefit of hindsight, I think the answer is…. well, I think it’s pretty clear.
Including playoffs, quarterbacks who threw for 300+ yards in a game during the 2009 season won an incredible 63.3% of games. And that mark remains the highest in modern history. Over the last five years (2010 to 2014), quarterbacks have won 52% of games when cracking that mark; during the decade of the ’90s, quarterbacks won 53% of their games when throwing for 300+ yards.
Of course, the likelihood of a quarterback throwing for 300+ yards has increased significantly. Over the last four years, quarterbacks have thrown for 300+ yards in 25% of all games, an enormous increase relative to most of NFL history. The graph below shows both pieces of information: in blue, and measured against the left Y-Axis, shows winning percentage by year when a quarterback throws for 300+ yards; in red, and against the right Y-Axis, is the percentage of all games where a quarterback hit the 300+ yard mark:
The 2009 season was certainly an outlier; other than that, there doesn’t seem to be much of an increase over time (at least since the mid-’80s) in winning percentage for 300+ yard passers. The table below shows the information from the chart above but in data form:
| Year | 300 pass | Wins | Win Perc | 300+ Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | 13 | 7 | 53.8% | 3.6% |
| 1971 | 11 | 4.5 | 40.9% | 3% |
| 1972 | 8 | 4 | 50% | 2.2% |
| 1973 | 10 | 4.5 | 45% | 2.7% |
| 1974 | 11 | 4.5 | 40.9% | 3% |
| 1975 | 17 | 9 | 52.9% | 4.7% |
| 1976 | 15 | 10 | 66.7% | 3.8% |
| 1977 | 6 | 4 | 66.7% | 1.5% |
| 1978 | 17 | 7 | 41.2% | 3.8% |
| 1979 | 46 | 21 | 45.7% | 10.3% |
| 1980 | 58 | 27.5 | 47.4% | 12.9% |
| 1981 | 61 | 23.5 | 38.5% | 13.6% |
| 1982 | 43 | 20 | 46.5% | 17.1% |
| 1983 | 69 | 26 | 37.7% | 15.4% |
| 1984 | 75 | 39 | 52% | 16.7% |
| 1985 | 66 | 31 | 47% | 14.7% |
| 1986 | 63 | 31.5 | 50% | 14.1% |
| 1987 | 60 | 31 | 51.7% | 14.3% |
| 1988 | 56 | 29.5 | 52.7% | 12.5% |
| 1989 | 69 | 35 | 50.7% | 15.4% |
| 1990 | 47 | 29 | 61.7% | 10.5% |
| 1991 | 57 | 29 | 50.9% | 12.7% |
| 1992 | 45 | 21 | 46.7% | 10% |
| 1993 | 41 | 21 | 51.2% | 9.2% |
| 1994 | 69 | 37 | 53.6% | 15.4% |
| 1995 | 84 | 41 | 48.8% | 17.5% |
| 1996 | 50 | 29 | 58% | 10.4% |
| 1997 | 47 | 20 | 42.6% | 9.8% |
| 1998 | 56 | 29 | 51.8% | 11.7% |
| 1999 | 75 | 45 | 60% | 15.1% |
| 2000 | 68 | 36 | 52.9% | 13.7% |
| 2001 | 74 | 38 | 51.4% | 14.9% |
| 2002 | 84 | 47.5 | 56.5% | 16.4% |
| 2003 | 67 | 33 | 49.3% | 13.1% |
| 2004 | 87 | 38 | 43.7% | 17% |
| 2005 | 66 | 32 | 48.5% | 12.9% |
| 2006 | 68 | 37 | 54.4% | 13.3% |
| 2007 | 83 | 43 | 51.8% | 16.2% |
| 2008 | 81 | 48.5 | 59.9% | 15.8% |
| 2009 | 109 | 69 | 63.3% | 21.3% |
| 2010 | 99 | 49 | 49.5% | 19.3% |
| 2011 | 129 | 71 | 55% | 25.2% |
| 2012 | 133 | 63 | 47.4% | 26% |
| 2013 | 124 | 62 | 50% | 24.2% |
| 2014 | 129 | 74.5 | 57.8% | 25.2% |
Update: As requested by Nick in the comments, here’s a graph showing the win percentage of the team that threw for more gross passing yards in each game.
