Since my running back heat maps post was so popular, I thought it made sense to perform the same analysis for quarterbacks. So here’s what I did. And as a reminder, BLUE means GOOD or above-average, while RED means BAD, or below-average.
I looked at all quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks (i.e., pass attempts + sacks) in 2014, and then measured on what percent of their dropbacks did each quarterback gain at least 0 yards [1]This is essentially a proxy for percentage of times the quarterback wasn’t sacked., at least 1 yard [2]This is a decent proxy for completion percentage, or, frankly, an improvement on completion percentage., at least 2 yards, etc., up to 10 yards. I also calculated the percentage of runs that went for at least 15+, 20+, 25+, and 30+ yards.
For example, among this group, the quarterbacks gained at least 0 yards on 92% of their dropbacks, and at least 1 yard on 56% of their dropbacks. [3]Note that I took an average of the averages approach; in other words, I am placing the same weight on Brees’ dropbacks as Michael Vick‘s when calculating league average, rather than … Continue reading Last year, Drew Brees gained at least 0 yards on 94% of his dropbacks, 1 yard on 63%, and 2 yards on 62% of his dropbacks; in other words, he was 2% above average at avoiding negative yards, 7% above average at getting at least 1 yard, and 8% above average at gaining at least 3 yards. In fact, Brees was between 7-8% above average at gaining between 1+ and 5+ yards on his dropbacks, although a hair below average at gaining over 20 or 25 yards on his dropbacks.
Drew Stanton and Brian Hoyer have a pair of interesting splits. Both were above average at avoiding sacks but below-average in completion percentage because they were vertical throwers; as a result, they’re each in the blue in the first column, then in the red for the next several columns, before getting back into the blue because they made a number of big plays.
And for those who want the information in table form:
| Quarterback | # DB | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 25 | 30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 687 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 658 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 645 | 0 | -2 | -2 | -1 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Andrew Luck | 643 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 642 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 636 | -1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -1 |
| Eli Manning | 629 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Derek Carr | 621 | 2 | -4 | -4 | -6 | -6 | -6 | -6 | -8 | -7 | -6 | -7 | -6 | -4 | -2 | -1 |
| Peyton Manning | 614 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Tom Brady | 605 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Philip Rivers | 604 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| Jay Cutler | 600 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -2 | -3 | -2 | -1 | -1 |
| Joe Flacco | 574 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 547 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Blake Bortles | 529 | -4 | -7 | -7 | -7 | -7 | -7 | -7 | -6 | -7 | -7 | -5 | -3 | -2 | -1 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 528 | -2 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Alex Smith | 507 | -2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Andy Dalton | 504 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | -2 | -2 | 0 | -1 | -2 | -1 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 492 | -2 | -1 | -2 | -2 | -1 | -2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Cam Newton | 487 | -1 | -4 | -4 | -2 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
| Kyle Orton | 480 | -2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -4 | -4 | -4 | -5 | -4 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 465 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Brian Hoyer | 463 | 2 | -6 | -5 | -4 | -3 | -2 | -1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 442 | -4 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Geno Smith | 391 | 1 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 362 | -2 | -6 | -5 | -5 | -4 | -4 | -4 | -4 | -3 | -5 | -5 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 333 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Mark Sanchez | 330 | -1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 321 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| Austin Davis | 314 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | -2 | 0 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 251 | 2 | -6 | -6 | -7 | -7 | -6 | -5 | -3 | -2 | -1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Shaun Hill | 246 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin | 244 | -7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -4 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 1 |
| Carson Palmer | 233 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Glennon | 217 | 1 | -3 | -4 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 212 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Charlie Whitehurst | 203 | -1 | -5 | -6 | -6 | -4 | -2 | -1 | -2 | -2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zach Mettenberger | 196 | -3 | -4 | -3 | -3 | -2 | -1 | -2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Jake Locker | 160 | -1 | -3 | -4 | -6 | -6 | -3 | -1 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -2 | -1 | -1 |
| Colt McCoy | 145 | -5 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| EJ Manuel | 137 | 4 | -3 | -3 | -2 | -4 | -6 | -8 | -8 | -7 | -6 | -5 | -2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Michael Vick | 137 | -4 | -11 | -11 | -9 | -11 | -9 | -11 | -12 | -12 | -13 | -14 | -10 | -5 | -2 | -1 |
| Average | 92 | 56 | 54 | 53 | 50 | 47 | 43 | 39 | 34 | 31 | 27 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 3 |
References
| ↑1 | This is essentially a proxy for percentage of times the quarterback wasn’t sacked. |
|---|---|
| ↑2 | This is a decent proxy for completion percentage, or, frankly, an improvement on completion percentage. |
| ↑3 | Note that I took an average of the averages approach; in other words, I am placing the same weight on Brees’ dropbacks as Michael Vick‘s when calculating league average, rather than count Brees’ numbers five times as much as Vick’s because he had five times as many dropbacks. |