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• Mike Lombardi Cracks the Code to Winning in the NFL June 19, 2013
  Yesterday, Joe Fortenbaugh canonized Mike Lombardi for discovering and emphasizing one of the game’s great hidden stats: the number of rushing attempts plus completions a team has in a game. If you hit 50, you’re in great shape. Fortenbaugh reminds us that Lombardi, whose last team went 2-14, “possesses a vast range of knowledge spanning […]
• Yards per Attempt: Where Does it Go Wrong? June 18, 2013
  Yards per Attempt is the basic statistic around which the passing game should be measured. It forms the base of my favorite predictive statistic (Net Yards per Attempt) and my favorite explanatory statistic (Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt). But it’s not perfect. In theory, Yards per Attempt is a system-neutral metric. If you play in […]
• Are Air Yards Consistent From Year to Year? June 17, 2013
  Consider the following example. The Colts gain possession at the 20-yard line. Andrew Luck is in shotgun and throws a strike to Reggie Wayne, who catches it at the 30, runs 15 yards, and gets tackled at the 45-yard line. Luck gets credited with 25 passing yards and Wayne records 25 receiving yards. Wayne is […]
• Fantasy Football: How to Project Receiving Yards (FBG) June 16, 2013
  Over at Footballguys.com, I look at a different method to project receiving yards. The number of receiving yards a player produces is the result of a large number of variables. Some of them, like the receiver’s ability, are pretty consistent from year to year. But other factors are less reliable, or less “sticky” from year […]
• Football Perspective Says Thank You On Its First Birthday June 15, 2013
  On June 15, 2012, I launched Football Perspective. Since that day, Football Perspective has posted a new article every single day. This the site’s 445th post, so I won’t blame you if you’ve missed an article here or there. At the top of every page is a link to the Historical Archive, a page that […]
• Football Perspective Contest June 14, 2013
  Football Perspective turns one tomorrow. To celebrate, Doug Drinen has come up with a contest centered around the following picture. Question 1: Explain what this is a picture of. Question 2: Make a case to your real or hypothetical significant other that this is worthy of being printed, framed, and hung on your wall. GRAND […]
• Top Ten Players Named Mike Williams in NFL History June 13, 2013
  #10: Tie: Mike Williams – linebacker, 1986 (Pittsburgh); Michael Williams – tight end, 2013-current (Detroit) Nine Mike Williamses have played in the NFL. A Tulsa linebacker of the same name was drafted by the Steelers in the 12th round of the 1986 Draft but never appeared in a game. In April, the Lions selected Alabama […]
• The Dungy Index: Version 2.0 June 12, 2013
  Back in 2006, Doug Drinen came up with the Dungy Index, a way to measure a coach’s performance in the regular season relative to expectations. Because Doug understands regression to the mean, he was impressed by Tony Dungy’s ability to continue to string together 12-win seasons year after year.1 But Doug didn’t want to just […]
• Were The 49ers Using West Coast Offense Principles in the 1950s? June 11, 2013
  Entire books have been written about the West Coast Offense. Friend of the program Chris Brown has an excellent primer on some of the principles of the system. Due to time constraints, this post is not going to dissect a voluminous playbook, translate Spider 3 Y Banana into English, or discuss the role of motions […]
• Implied SRS Ratings of Most College Football Teams June 10, 2013
  The Simple Rating System is a set of computer rankings focused on only two variables: strength of schedule and margin of victory. I published weekly college football SRS ratings each week last season, and you can read more about the SRS there. Last month, Jason Lisk of the Big Lead took the Las Vegas point […]