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Junk 2

The table below shows the draft grades from each team from 1970 to 2007, as discussed in this article.

The first row after the header reads:

The Chicago Bears, in 1975, had 59.7 points of expected marginal AV. Expected Marginal AV is based solely on the draft picks they were allotted. They produced 226 points of actual marginal AV, so they are credited with 166.3 points of value — i.e., they exceeded expectations by 166.3 points.

In Year N+1 (1976), the Bears had 43.3 points of expected marginal AV, and 45 points of actual marginal AV, so they exceeded value by 1.7 points. In Year N-1 (1975), the Bears had 73.3 points of expected marginal AV (thanks to two top-20 picks) but produced just 38 points of actual AV, so they undershot expectations by 35.3 points.

TmYearExp mAVAct mAVValueN+1 ExpN+1 ActN+1 ValN-1 ExpN-1 ActN-1 Val
chi197559.7226166.343.3451.773.338-35.3
pit19718022514564.88318.286.2969.8
mia197037.4161123.627.8379.2
chi198372.1195122.945.344-1.352.342-10.3
ram197151.3155103.744.811267.232.718-14.7
sfo198658.1159100.94832-1629.37040.7
rai197149.114898.966.611043.445.47024.6
sdg197594.219297.867.99022.185.542-43.5
mia198333.312995.738.924-14.950.99342.1
was198140.813695.232.132-0.129.55020.5
pit197452.114794.9460-4654.636-18.6
dal200555.115094.940.55-35.534.9405.1
nyj197769.316191.770.2710.853.19238.9
nwe200529.811484.248.323-25.351.947-4.9
phi197714.99883.118.95233.112.74734.3
nor198193.617682.47734-4340.7432.3
nor200653.313581.739.538-1.543.9440.1
pit198757.413779.647.545-2.558.846-12.8
nyj197054.613277.458.8667.2
clt200630.710473.34538-742.224-18.2
clt197262.113572.999.113434.954.223-31.2
rav199654.612671.466.49528.6
den197365.113670.945.87832.244.8450.2
nyj200729.610070.474.98813.1
sdg200468.413869.6481045646.837-9.8
mia199651.612169.469.512656.531.13-28.1
ram197244.811267.274.761-13.751.3155103.7
dal197586.715366.365.741-24.786.732-54.7
buf198833.99965.119.912-7.910014949
sea199068.813364.245.66-39.64825-23
mia197659.512363.547.97729.163.846-17.8
den197566.713063.337.134-3.145.87832.2
gnb2000551186351.712-39.750.5587.5
sfo200761.512462.556.86811.2
nwe198140.210261.8118.9105-13.958.338-20.3
jax200631.59260.549.347-2.339.6499.4
clt200138.69960.446.15912.935.3448.7
cin200156.911760.145.229-16.257.326-31.3
den200642.410259.637.215-22.227.713-14.7
phi198661.512159.545.48034.645.6504.4
gnb197871.713159.34341-263.78824.3
sfo198164.312358.720.6265.480.371-9.3
sdg200156.811558.263.146-17.129.323-6.3
gnb197087.814658.256.354-2.3
nwe199542.510057.563.48925.663.247-16.2
gnb1995521095739445395819
mia199769.512656.559.245-14.251.612169.4
sdg2005481045637.68446.468.413869.6
cin197062.511855.550.59443.5
tam199552.910855.168.59728.549.247-2.2
phi200244.29954.836.519-17.540.822-18.8
crd200459.511454.551.325-26.354.87621.2
sfo198330.68554.438.46829.620.6265.4
crd197151.710654.373.269-4.290.520-70.5
phi200554.110853.952.17017.935.221-14.2
gnb200674.512853.548.142-6.148.77829.3
dal197766.912053.140.418-22.465.741-24.7
nwe200352.110451.951.947-4.931.55523.5
phi197381.713351.327.63911.456.8592.2
min199841.79351.355.38226.741.236-5.2
den199513.96450.156.734-22.7154328
chi198149.59949.552.342-10.339.3422.7
nwe198359.610949.462.729-33.7118.9105-13.9
buf19871001494933.99965.150.539-11.5
mia197845.29448.861.59634.547.97729.1
atl197959.310747.766.69528.453.67925.4
atl200163.211046.834.221-13.230.417-13.4
car200147.29446.863.49228.638.636-2.6
pit199253.410046.648.66819.450.827-23.8
mia199052.49946.633.6428.450.47322.6
chi200053.510046.549.426-23.471809
sdg200637.68446.435.6360.44810456
buf200342.78946.346.1514.957.137-20.1
nyg198359.310545.770.7710.339.938-1.9
htx200670.211544.838.1412.932.716-16.7
buf200158.510344.557.137-20.136.43-33.4
cle199031.57644.563.27410.848.830-18.8
tam198141.68644.456.150-6.139.16828.9
crd198161.710644.363832063.362-1.3
sfo197934.27843.880.371-9.371.863-8.8
cin197150.59443.569.310434.762.511855.5
rai197266.611043.448.821-27.849.114898.9
pit200234774331.75220.337.95315.1
rai197734.17742.947.740-7.737.92-35.9
min200347.19042.944.339-5.351.542-9.5
atl200537.28042.823.513-10.550.36110.7
mia198250.99342.133.312995.753.940-13.9
kan199641834236.7414.334.216-18.2
det198966.110841.964.447-17.479.39010.7
nyg198950.29241.840.95312.157.241-16.2
min197733744138.638-0.643.15612.9
was198334.17540.940.828-12.832.132-0.1
phi199845.38640.766.48518.642.732-10.7
sfo198529.37040.758.1159100.938.46829.6
tam199773.911440.137.5413.568.59728.5
clt200339.98040.140.66019.446.15912.9
rav200237.97840.157.3624.7345622
sdg198365.910539.145.918-27.9231
nyj197653.19238.969.316191.728.127-1.1
dal200351.69038.434.9405.156.7658.3
dal199042.98138.1132.6132-0.684.8938.2
jax200354.19237.963.97410.148.68233.4
nyg198171.110937.939.938-1.946.96417.1
min197360.19837.984.361-23.343.87733.2
rai197448.48637.637.519-18.548.821-27.8
nyg199333.67137.446.246-0.250.56110.5
mia198042.78037.353.940-13.961.59634.5
was19796.94437.129.55020.53.83-0.8
nyj1979631003777.867-10.870.2710.8
nwe197559.19535.974942039.57333.5
pit199054.19035.950.827-23.873.1773.9
chi200372.110835.950.18231.938.838-0.8
nor198678.211435.852.96613.141.6442.4
phi199151.58735.53614-2239.25414.8
buf197658.99435.154.635-19.652.84-48.8
clt197399.113434.9101.812422.262.113572.9
cin197269.310434.746.47932.650.59443.5
phi198745.48034.650.98332.161.512159.5
mia197961.59634.542.78037.345.29448.8
oti200567.610234.459.47919.659.946-13.9
mia197471.610634.463.846-17.8415-36
rav200648.78334.335.64610.439.230-9.2
phi197612.74734.314.99883.13.71-2.7
mia198851.88634.250.47322.650.842-8.8
den199725.15933.935521756.734-22.7
det198356.39033.759.230-29.251.77523.3
nwe197439.57333.559.19535.991.112230.9
sea200059.69333.473.1806.940.323-17.3
jax200248.68233.454.19237.947.66921.4
min197243.87733.260.19837.929.513-16.5
sea198633.96733.166.345-21.333.319-14.3
phi197818.95233.146.4547.614.99883.1
cin197346.47932.673.624-49.669.310434.7
nyj200078.711132.339.7488.323.7306.3
ram199754.78732.359.859-0.876.152-24.1
gnb199261.79432.355.18024.955.210-45.2
oti197850.88332.237.727-10.764.8694.2
den197445.87832.266.713063.365.113670.9
phi198850.98332.125.619-6.645.48034.6
clt199865973255.28630.843.16925.9
chi200450.18231.946.921-25.972.110835.9
buf199638.57031.532.228-4.258.2634.8
min198845.67731.424.90-24.944.36318.7
was200617.64931.428.921-7.942.9441.1
atl197164.79631.382.426-56.47547-28
nyg200523.85531.238.637-1.658.48829.6
den200238.97031.144.122-22.14032-8
nyg200740713138.637-1.6
nwe197391.112230.939.57333.527.218-9.2
clt199955.28630.835.3448.7659732
sfo199150.58130.542.711-31.749.738-11.7
crd197630.56130.547.327-20.336.41-35.4
cle197646.77730.34226-165952-7
gnb198545.97630.139.3433.739.86222.2
sfo197633.96430.120.60-20.673.344-29.3
nyg200458.48829.623.85531.237.66022.4
sfo198438.46829.629.37040.730.68554.4
dal199846.67629.439.95414.149.247-2.2
gnb200548.77829.374.512853.536.928-8.9
sfo199469.89929.224.618-6.645.15812.9
mia197747.97729.145.29448.859.512363.5
tam198039.16828.941.68644.450.6576.4
cin198690.111928.956.735-21.7738411
car200263.49228.651.947-4.947.29446.8
rav199766.49528.642.823-19.854.612671.4
tam199668.59728.573.911440.152.910855.1
atl198066.69528.440.834-6.859.310747.7
oti199844.87328.245.86923.255.252-3.2
sea198826.85528.24825-2366.345-21.3
den199415432813.96450.160.719-41.7
den198615.24327.828.24819.845.55610.5
was199942.57027.573.458-15.428.9378.1
car200748.57627.541.26018.8
sea200544.57227.52733638.338-0.3
buf197981.510927.571.863-8.881.755-26.7
min198244.87227.236.8469.249.831-18.8
pit200747742738.3489.7
sdg198950.17726.967.69123.445.96216.1
mia198628.15526.950.842-8.845.1460.9
min199955.38226.749.832-17.841.79351.3
ram198380.310726.75.90-5.946.46-40.4
cin198344.47126.687.4957.641.215-26.2
car200430.75726.352.227-25.251.947-4.9
sdg198141.76826.323118.44-14.4
clt199743.16925.9659732415110
det199533.25925.844.334-10.33830-8
nwe199663.48925.649.118-31.142.510057.5
nwe200029.55525.554.17520.950.347-3.3
atl197853.67925.459.310747.772.353-19.3
sdg197931.75725.318.44-14.441.930-11.9
det197863.78925.355.7593.332.919-13.9
gnb199062872555.210-45.266.945-21.9
gnb199355.18024.939581961.79432.3
min200652.17724.950.27019.8616-55
gnb200230.15524.925.7359.351.712-39.7
oti200041.26624.822.7285.345.86923.2
oti199341.26624.842.832-10.835.734-1.7
clt198816.24124.8349-2525.6304.4
ram200427.35224.752.6552.454.442-12.4
cin198155.38024.741.215-26.270.4754.6
sfo200144.46924.635.221-14.2799011
rai197045.47024.649.114898.9
ram198542.66724.466.57710.55.90-5.9
gnb197763.78824.371.713159.331.94715.1
pit199957.88224.260.256-4.253.3628.7
rai198148.97324.163.48622.642.6529.4
min199562862442.95-37.961.6719.4
kan200338622435.8415.241.818-23.8
chi197354.17823.973.338-35.368.256-12.2
was197029.35323.717.516-1.5
was19758.43223.65.30-5.36.50-6.5
nwe200231.55523.552.110451.954.17520.9
det200141.66523.456.229-27.236.322-14.3
det198072.69623.448.435-13.455.7593.3
crd197971.69523.463.362-1.37127-44
sdg199067.69123.473.442-31.450.17726.9
oti199568.79223.360.78120.342.832-10.8
det198251.77523.356.39033.748.435-13.4
oti199945.86923.241.26624.844.87328.2
den198034.85823.242.15714.934.71-33.7
pit198255.17822.947.818-29.848.234-14.2
nyg199758.28122.835.922-13.951.7542.3
sfo198837.36022.739.925-14.94832-16
mia198950.47322.652.49946.651.88634.2
rai198263.48622.639.15313.948.97324.1
cle198255.67822.431461528.14011.9
nyg200337.66022.458.48829.639401
chi198640.76322.339.833-6.838.426-12.4
oti198485.810822.283.950-33.992.978-14.9
gnb198439.86222.245.97630.142.229-13.2
clt1974101.812422.279.225-54.299.113434.9
was199748.97122.128.9378.123.4339.6
atl199435.95822.136.327-9.348.919-29.9
sdg197667.99022.138.929-9.994.219297.8
rav199929512256.67821.442.823-19.8
rav200134562237.97840.156.67821.4
dal197350.27221.886.732-54.783.627-56.6
nwe199388.411021.663.247-16.268.639-29.6
rav200056.67821.4345622295122
jax200147.66921.448.68233.435.3426.7
crd200354.87621.259.511454.549.415-34.4
cle198839602148.830-18.852.618-34.6
nwe200154.17520.931.55523.529.55525.5
was200435.15620.942.9441.117.213-4.2
nyg197329.35020.774.372-2.364.429-35.4
kan198959.48020.647.1535.950.750-0.7
was198029.55020.540.813695.26.94437.1
nyj200439.56020.533.84612.248.244-4.2
oti199660.78120.355.252-3.268.79223.3
pit200331.75220.344.96419.1347743
buf197389.811020.253.718-35.779.259-20.2
crd198263832053.549-4.561.710644.3
nwe197674942064842059.19535.9
nwe197764842047471.02696E-15749420
den198728.24819.837.610-27.615.24327.8
min200750.27019.852.17724.9
buf200656.37619.74342-122.88-14.8
oti200659.47919.645.736-9.767.610234.4
sfo197065.48519.675.511-64.5
pit199348.66819.451.96513.153.410046.6
rai198919.63919.442.523-19.573.755-18.7
clt200440.66019.442.224-18.239.98040.1
ram199951.87119.236.123-13.159.859-0.8
pit200444.96419.133.45117.631.75220.3
gnb1994395819521095755.18024.9
ram198055741958.453-5.469.950-19.9
car200641.26018.848.57627.552.227-25.2
min198744.36318.745.67731.433.133-0.1
phi199966.48518.653.3584.745.38640.7
buf199136.55518.540.636-4.649.438-11.4
cin200637.65618.434.6394.441.128-13.1
cle198453.77218.317.6268.4314615
was19721.72018.36.42114.617.516-1.5
pit197264.88318.254.636-18.680225145
nyg198674921841.85412.256.142-14.1
phi200652.17017.938.237-1.254.110853.9
oti198629.14717.977.969-8.983.950-33.9
jax199670.38817.740.5476.5869913
pit200533.45117.638.3489.744.96419.1
mia200214.53217.529.910-19.944.4538.6
buf197175.79317.379.259-20.276.729-47.7
sea197942.96017.147.6513.449.96010.1
nyg198046.96417.171.110937.953.538-15.5
kan197447.96517.1290-2937.76-31.7
den199835521754.2572.825.15933.9
sfo199623.34016.729.910-19.924.618-6.6
pit199637.75416.34121-20425816
pit198440.85716.245.82-43.847.818-29.8
chi197030.84716.275.466-9.4
sdg198845.96216.150.17726.946.613-33.6
pit199542581637.75416.351.96513.1
kan197665.28115.869.38212.7290-29
chi200635.35115.740.329-11.346.921-25.9
min198435.35115.785.771-14.736.8469.2
was198522.43815.642.35411.740.828-12.8
nyj197349.56515.570.122-48.159.841-18.8
sea198248.56415.536.9447.165.7660.3
gnb197631.94715.163.78824.328.1290.9
pit200137.95315.134774360.256-4.2
ram19751151301556.640-16.650.2521.8
cle198331461553.77218.355.67822.4
oti198944.15914.949.817-32.844.2483.8
den198142.15714.93542734.85823.2
mia199333.14814.942.15512.973.458-15.4
phi199039.25414.851.58735.525.619-6.6
crd199038.45314.662.262-0.274.143-31.1
was19736.42114.66.50-6.51.72018.3
det199835.75014.352.123-29.157.621-36.6
dal199939.95414.119.315-4.346.67629.4
sfo199836.95114.13721-1629.910-19.9
den198428421445.55610.59688-8
rai198339.15313.923.5251.563.48622.6
gnb199734.14813.932.5341.539445
min199132.14613.925.73610.331.420-11.4
cin1977106.212013.893.465-28.489.889-0.8
rai199633.44713.650.8543.243.3495.7
pit198052.86613.248.234-14.245.223-22.2
pit199451.96513.142581648.66819.4
nor197660.97413.157.812-45.887.428-59.4
nor198752.96613.147.512-35.578.211435.8
nyj200674.98813.129.610070.433.84612.2
rai197919321342.6529.447.740-7.7
car199931441338.636-2.644.819-25.8
jax199586991370.38817.7
min197643.15612.933744143.817-26.8
sfo199345.15812.969.89929.242.711-31.7
mia199442.15512.931.13-28.133.14814.9
clt200246.15912.939.98040.138.69960.4
kan197769.38212.780.468-12.465.28115.8
nyj198343.35612.784.160-24.143.328-15.3
den198958.37112.727.6368.437.610-27.6
nyg198741.85412.257.241-16.2749218
dal199439.85212.248.914-34.941.3442.7
nyj200533.84612.274.98813.139.56020.5
nyg199040.95312.140.630-10.650.29241.8
min197941.15311.96052-838.638-0.6
cle198128.14011.955.67822.445.518-27.5
was198642.35411.73414-2022.43815.6
nor200137.34911.758.4656.629.824-5.8
phi197427.63911.43.71-2.781.713351.3
sfo200656.86811.261.512462.567.1735.9
sfo200079901144.46924.63721-16
cin198573841190.111928.987.4957.6
buf199942531136.43-33.425.9315.1
nor200440.15110.943.9440.149.523-26.5
sea198442.15310.933.319-14.336.9447.1
chi199636.14710.935.312-23.352.719-33.7
cle199163.27410.852.215-37.231.57644.5
det198879.39010.766.110841.941.9519.1
atl200450.36110.737.28042.817.416-1.4
cle197164.47510.650.138-12.179.978-1.9
den198545.55610.515.24327.8284214
nyg199250.56110.533.67137.440.630-10.6
kan199319.53010.545.625-20.636.3414.7
ram198666.57710.534.221-13.242.66724.4
clt198656.56710.525.6304.458.649-9.6
den197151.56210.544.8450.256.330-26.3
rav200735.64610.448.78334.3
min199225.73610.349.827-22.832.14613.9
rai199238.94910.140.929-11.934.329-5.3
sea197849.96010.142.96017.176.165-11.1
jax200463.97410.139.6499.454.19237.9
clt199641511043.16925.942.7430.3
pit197086.2969.880225145
pit200638.3489.747742733.45117.6
atl199849.3599.737.4391.661.542-19.5
mia200425.3359.755.5582.529.910-19.9
phi199560.4709.647.944-3.958.720-38.7
was199623.4339.648.97122.157.9591.1
det197231.5419.572.7774.36328-35
tam1987106.51169.562.558-4.552.421-31.4
jax200539.6499.431.59260.563.97410.1
min199461.6719.462862449.827-22.8
rai198042.6529.448.97324.1193213
gnb200325.7359.336.928-8.930.15524.9
min198336.8469.235.35115.744.87227.2
mia197127.8379.243.312-31.337.4161123.6
det198741.9519.179.39010.750.729-21.7
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{ 2 comments }