How Have Previous Michael Thomases Fared?

by Chase Stuart on June 12, 2017

Five years ago, I asked two questions: how often does the first receiver selected in the Draft turn out to be the best rookie receiver? And how often does the best rookie receiver turn out to be the best receiver from his draft? Yesterday, we updated that post to answer the first question. Today, we look at the second one, and that makes Saints star Michael Thomas (who had 1,137 receiving yards as a rookie in 2016) the focus of this post.

How likely is it that Thomas will turn out to be the best receiver from his class? Thomas has some competition, but though he was farther ahead of the pack than the average top receiver:

Drafted Players Table
							Misc	Misc		Appr		Rece	Rece	Rece
Rnd	Pick	Tm	Player	Pos	Age	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	Rec	Yds ▼	TD	College/Univ
2	47	NOR	Michael Thomas	WR	23	2016	0	0	1	10	15	92	1137	9	Ohio St.	College Stats
2	40	NYG	Sterling Shepard	WR	22	2016	0	0	1	5	16	65	683	8	Oklahoma	College Stats
1	21	HOU	Will Fuller	WR	22	2016	0	0	1	6	14	47	635	2	Notre Dame	College Stats
2	55	CIN	Tyler Boyd	WR	21	2016	0	0	0	5	16	54	603	1	Pittsburgh	College Stats
5	165	KAN	Tyreek Hill	WR	22	2016	1	1	0	10	16	61	593	6	West Alabama
5	140	TEN	Tajae Sharpe	WR	21	2016	0	0	1	5	16	41	522	2	Massachusetts	College Stats
1	15	CLE	Corey Coleman	WR	22	2016	0	0	1	3	10	33	413	3	Baylor	College Stats
4	112	NWE	Malcolm Mitchell	WR	23	2016	0	0	0	4	14	32	401	4	Georgia	College Stats

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table

So how optimistic should we be that Thomas will in fact finish as the top receiver from this class? You may be surprised to learn that from 1999 to 2013, the top rookie receiver (as measured by receiving yards) *never* finished as the top receiver from his class (as measured by receiving yards). Bookmarking those years? Randy Moss in 1998, and Odell Beckham in 2014. There are a few cases where the top rookie had a great career (Anquan Boldin, Marques Colston, and A.J. Green stand out) but ultimately was bested (to date, in the case of Green) by another star, but also a large number of guys who didn’t quite live up to their potential after year one.

Year	Top Rookie	Team	Team	Career Rk	Career Leader	Same?	Rk As Rookie
2016	Michael Thomas	nor	NOR	1	Michael Thomas	Same	1
2015	Amari Cooper	rai	OAK	1	Amari Cooper	Same	1
2014	Odell Beckham	nyg	NYG	1	Odell Beckham	Same	1
2013	Keenan Allen	sdg	SDG	4	DeAndre Hopkins	Diff	2
2012	Justin Blackmon	jax	JAX	13	T.Y. Hilton	Diff	2
2011	A.J. Green	cin	CIN	2	Julio Jones	Diff	2
2010	Mike Williams	tam	TAM	8	Antonio Brown	Diff	14
2009	Hakeem Nicks	nyg	NYG	4	Mike Wallace	Diff	4
2008	Eddie Royal	den	DEN	5	DeSean Jackson	Diff	2
2007	Dwayne Bowe	kan	KAN	2	Calvin Johnson	Diff	2
2006	Marques Colston	nor	NOR	2	Brandon Marshall	Diff	5
2005	Reggie Brown	phi	PHI	5	Roddy White	Diff	4
2004	Michael Clayton	tam	TAM	9	Larry Fitzgerald	Diff	4
2003	Anquan Boldin	crd	ARI	2	Andre Johnson	Diff	2
2002	Antonio Bryant	dal	DAL	3	Deion Branch	Diff	5
2001	Chris Chambers	mia	MIA	5	Steve Smith	Diff	13
2000	Darrell Jackson	sea	SEA	3	Laveranues Coles	Diff	5
1999	Kevin Johnson	cle	CLE	7	Torry Holt	Diff	2
1998	Randy Moss	min	MIN	1	Randy Moss	Same	1
1997	Rae Carruth	car	CAR	11	Derrick Mason	Diff	4
1996	Terry Glenn	nwe	NWE	7	Terrell Owens	Diff	6
1995	Joey Galloway	sea	SEA	1	Joey Galloway	Same	1
1994	Darnay Scott	cin	CIN	4	Isaac Bruce	Diff	7
1993	Horace Copeland	tam	TAM	9	Curtis Conway	Diff	6
1992	Courtney Hawkins	tam	TAM	4	Jimmy Smith	Diff	36
1991	Lawrence Dawsey	tam	TAM	13	Keenan McCardell	Diff	20
1990	Ricky Proehl	crd	PHO	1	Ricky Proehl	Same	1
1989	Shawn Collins	atl	ATL	8	Andre Rison	Diff	2
1988	Sterling Sharpe	gnb	GNB	4	Tim Brown	Diff	2
1987	Ricky Nattiel	den	DEN	10	Mark Carrier	Diff	2
1986	Bill Brooks	clt	IND	3	Ernest Givins	Diff	2
1985	Eddie Brown	cin	CIN	5	Jerry Rice	Diff	2
1984	Louis Lipps	pit	PIT	2	Irving Fryar	Diff	9
1983	Willie Gault	chi	CHI	4	Henry Ellard	Diff	6
1982	Lindsay Scott	nor	NOR	9	Mark Duper	Diff	31
1981	Cris Collinsworth	cin	CIN	1	Cris Collinsworth	Same	1
1980	Art Monk	was	WAS	1	Art Monk	Same	1
1979	Jerry Butler	buf	BUF	4	Drew Hill	Diff	8
1978	John Jefferson	sdg	SDG	3	James Lofton	Diff	2
1977	Wesley Walker	nyj	NYJ	2	Stanley Morgan	Diff	2
1976	Sammy White	min	MIN	4	Steve Largent	Diff	2
1975	Rick Upchurch	den	DEN	3	Freddie Solomon	Diff	2
1974	Nat Moore	mia	MIA	2	John Stallworth	Diff	7
1973	Isaac Curtis	cin	CIN	1	Isaac Curtis	Same	1
1972	Ahmad Rashad	crd	STL	2	Cliff Branch	Diff	8
1971	Randy Vataha	nwe	NWE	6	Harold Carmichael	Diff	6
1970	Ron Shanklin	pit	PIT	2	Ken Burrough	Diff	6

You might be surprised to see that the median rank of these rookie receivers is just to finish fourth in their class. In recent years, we’ve seen Tampa Bay’s Mike Williams, Eddie Royal, and Tampa Bay’s Michael Clayton excel as rookies but have disappointing careers. Excluding the players from 2014, 2015, and 2016, the only receivers since 1982 to finish 1st as both a rookie and overall were Proehl, Galloway, and Moss. Do you think there’s something there, or is that a fluke?

Another interesting: other than Antonio Brown, none of the receivers who wound up as the top receiver in their class really struggled as a rookie. Since 2002, Brown is the only one who didn’t rank in the top five.

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