Longtime commenter Jason Winter has chimed in with today’s guest post. Jason is a part-time video game journalist and full-time sports fan. You can follow him on twitter at @winterinformal.

As always, we thank Jason for contributing.

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Two years ago, I started a little experiment. I saw that many NFL prognosticators were posting mock drafts for 2016 just a few days after the 2015 draft concluded. I found as many as I could and, when the 2016 draft rolled around, rated all of them on their predictive prowess.  Regular readers may recall that last year’s article was posted here at Football Perspective.

I did the same for the 2017 draft, recording the same people’s drafts – along with a couple others – right after the 2016 draft, so it’s time to see how they did this year. Were the same people good (or bad) at predicting the draft a year out? Or was it an exercise in guesswork and randomness?

This year, I had 12 different sources to draw from – the same 10 from last year, along with a pair of new entries: Steve Palazzolo from Pro Football Focus and Todd McShay from ESPN. To recap my scoring methods:

I applied two different scoring systems to each mock draft. The first, which I call the “Strict” method, better rewards exact or very close hits: 10 points for getting a pick’s position exactly right; 8 points for being 1 pick off; 6 for being 2 off; 4 for being 3-4 off; 3 for being 5-8 off; 2 for being 9-16 off; and 1 for being 17-32 off.

The second method, the “Flexible” method, just cares about being in the ballpark with a pick: 4 for being 0-4 picks off; 3 for being 5-8 off; 2 for being 9-16 off; and 1 for being 17-32 off.

I went with two scoring methods because on one level, it’s cool to see who gets really close, or makes exact picks, but does it really matter if a guy predicted to go at #11 really goes #13 instead? Probably not. The Strict method hands out more points for those “cool” picks, while the Flexible method gives more margin for error.

I averaged the two results to come up with an overall ranking, and also counted the number of players correctly guessed as first-round picks, along with the number of first-round predicted picks who went in the first and second rounds. The results:

The first thing I thought upon seeing these results? Maybe SI’s Chris Burke and CBS Sports’ Dane Brugler are on to something. They swapped #1 and #3 placement from last year, and Brugler would have been #2 if not for the addition of ESPN draft guru Todd McShay into the rankings.

If anything, I’m a little surprised at the overall consistency of the predictors. There were a few people who moved up and down the rankings, and a little variance is expected, but I was of the opinion that the there would be more randomness – that we would see someone go from worst to first, or vice versa. Maybe there is some skill involved in doing this sort of thing. Or maybe two years is too small of a sample size to draw any conclusions from.

10 of the 12 mocks had Deshaun Watson going #1 overall to the Browns. The two exceptions were Chris Burke, who had Brad Kaaya in the #1 spot, and Charlie Campbell, who correctly predicted Myles Garrett with the #1 pick. In Burke’s defense, 10 drafts listed Kaaya – who went in the sixth round – as a first-round pick.

Speaking of individual players, how well were they predicted? As before, I tallied how the the first-round picks themselves would count if scored by the two methods across all the mock drafts, as well as the number of times they show up in the 10 mocks. In other words, the higher a player’s score(s), the better he was predicted.

Some observations:

• In 2016, the #2 overall pick, a quarterback (Carson Wentz), didn’t appear on anyone’s very early draft board. In 2017, the #2 overall pick, a quarterback (Mitchell Trubisky), didn’t appear on anyone’s very early draft board.

• In 2016, the most easily predicted draft pick was edge defender Joey Bosa. In 2017, the most easily predicted draft pick was edge defender Myles Garrett.

• Not too far behind Garrett (#1 overall) and Leonard Fournette (#4 overall) in terms of overall predictability was Adoree’ Jackson, who went #18 overall. He only appeared in nine of the 12 mock drafts, but the experts almost universally nailed his draft position, predicting him to go at 10, 16, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 20, and 22. Even Dan Kadar, who slotted him at #10, deserves some credit for correctly guessing he would wind up with Tennessee.

• Unlike last year, when only two of the first 32 picks (Bosa and Jalen Ramsey) showed up on everyone’s early draft board, five players (Garrett, Christian McCaffrey, Deshaun Watson, Derek Barnett, and Jonathan Allen) were correctly predicted as going in the first round by every expert. Three more (Fournette, Mike Williams, and Charles Harris) showed up on all but one list.

• 14 of the 32 first-rounders didn’t show up on anyone’s list, the same number as last year.

That’s all I’ve got for now. Let me know what else you found interesting about this year’s data, and I’ll see you next year!