Checkdowns: Season and Single-Game NFL SRS Ratings

by Chase Stuart on October 30, 2015

Here are the SRS ratings as of this morning — that is, through seven weeks and the Patriots/Dolphins game last night. The formula here was pretty simple: I took the difference between each team’s points scored and points allowed in each game, and added 3 points for home field, and that was it. The Patriots have a HFA-adjusted average margin of victory this season of 16.1, against a schedule that (after iterating) has been 0.5 points below average. That gives New England an SRS of 15.7.

Rk	Tm	G	MOV	SOS	SRS
1	NWE	7	16.1	-0.5	15.7
2	ARI	7	13.3	-2.4	10.9
3	CIN	6	10.0	-0.5	9.5
4	NYJ	6	7.3	1.3	8.6
5	GNB	6	9.5	-2.4	7.1
6	PIT	7	4.3	2.3	6.6
7	PHI	7	3.7	1.8	5.5
8	CAR	6	8.7	-3.4	5.3
9	DEN	6	7.2	-2.6	4.5
10	ATL	7	6.6	-2.3	4.3
11	SEA	7	4.1	0.1	4.2
12	STL	6	-1.8	3.7	1.9
13	NYG	7	1.0	-0.5	0.5
14	BAL	7	-2.6	2.6	0.0
15	BUF	7	-0.4	0.3	-0.1
16	MIN	6	3.7	-4.0	-0.3
17	KAN	7	-2.7	1.5	-1.2
18	NOR	7	-3.0	1.3	-1.7
19	OAK	6	-1.5	-0.3	-1.8
20	DAL	6	-6.2	4.1	-2.1
21	WAS	7	-3.3	1.2	-2.1
22	MIA	7	-1.9	-0.5	-2.3
23	SDG	7	-5.1	1.2	-3.9
24	CLE	7	-4.6	0.3	-4.3
25	IND	7	-4.3	-0.4	-4.7
26	TEN	6	-4.3	-2.9	-7.3
27	SFO	7	-11.4	4.1	-7.3
28	CHI	6	-9.8	1.8	-8.0
29	DET	7	-9.1	1.0	-8.1
30	HOU	7	-6.0	-2.6	-8.6
31	JAX	7	-8.6	-0.8	-9.3
32	TAM	6	-6.5	-4.0	-10.5

I’m short on time today, but here is also the results of every game this year. The top game was by Arizona, courtesy of a 40-point home win (worth 37 points after adjusting for MOV) against a team that is 7.3 points below average; that translates to a single-game SRS of 29.7.

Rk	Tm	H/R	Opp	Week	Day	Result	PF	PA	MOV	SOS	SRS
1	ARI		SFO	3	Sun	W	47	7	37	-7.3	29.7
2	BUF	@	MIA	3	Sun	W	41	14	30	-2.3	27.7
3	NWE	@	DAL	5	Sun	W	30	6	27	-2.1	24.9
4	MIA	@	TEN	6	Sun	W	38	10	31	-7.3	23.7
5	NWE		MIA	8	Thu	W	36	7	26	-2.3	23.7
6	NWE		JAX	3	Sun	W	51	17	31	-9.3	21.7
7	CIN	@	OAK	1	Sun	W	33	13	23	-1.8	21.2
8	TEN	@	TAM	1	Sun	W	42	14	31	-10.5	20.5
9	ARI	@	CHI	2	Sun	W	48	23	28	-8.0	20.0
10	PIT		ARI	6	Sun	W	25	13	9	10.9	19.9
11	ARI	@	DET	5	Sun	W	42	17	28	-8.1	19.9
12	PHI	@	NYJ	3	Sun	W	24	17	10	8.6	18.6
13	DAL	@	PHI	2	Sun	W	20	10	13	5.5	18.5
14	PHI		NYG	6	Mon	W	27	7	17	0.5	17.5
15	PHI		NOR	5	Sun	W	39	17	19	-1.7	17.3
16	NYG	@	BUF	4	Sun	W	24	10	17	-0.1	16.9
17	STL	@	ARI	4	Sun	W	24	22	5	10.9	15.9
18	CIN	@	BUF	6	Sun	W	34	21	16	-0.1	15.9
19	ATL		HOU	4	Sun	W	48	21	24	-8.6	15.4
20	SEA		CHI	3	Sun	W	26	0	23	-8.0	15.0
21	PIT		SFO	2	Sun	W	43	18	22	-7.3	14.7
22	NYJ		CLE	1	Sun	W	31	10	18	-4.3	13.7
23	SFO		MIN	1	Mon	W	20	3	14	-0.3	13.7
24	KAN		PIT	7	Sun	W	23	13	7	6.6	13.6
25	CAR		PHI	7	Sun	W	27	16	8	5.5	13.5
26	WAS		STL	2	Sun	W	24	10	11	1.9	12.9
27	GNB		STL	5	Sun	W	24	10	11	1.9	12.9
28	SEA	@	SFO	7	Thu	W	20	3	20	-7.3	12.7
29	NWE		NYJ	7	Sun	W	30	23	4	8.6	12.6
30	BAL	@	PIT	4	Thu	W	23	20	6	6.6	12.6
31	ATL	@	DAL	3	Sun	W	39	28	14	-2.1	11.9
32	NYJ	@	NWE	7	Sun	L	23	30	-4	15.7	11.7
33	PIT	@	NWE	1	Thu	L	21	28	-4	15.7	11.7
34	NYJ	@	IND	2	Mon	W	20	7	16	-4.7	11.3
35	NOR		ATL	6	Thu	W	31	21	7	4.3	11.3
36	GNB		SEA	2	Sun	W	27	17	7	4.2	11.2
37	CAR	@	SEA	6	Sun	W	27	23	7	4.2	11.2
38	PIT	@	STL	3	Sun	W	12	6	9	1.9	10.9
39	NWE	@	BUF	2	Sun	W	40	32	11	-0.1	10.9
40	CIN		KAN	4	Sun	W	36	21	12	-1.2	10.8
41	STL		CLE	7	Sun	W	24	6	15	-4.3	10.7
42	NYJ	N	MIA	4	Sun	W	27	14	13	-2.3	10.7
43	NWE		PIT	1	Thu	W	28	21	4	6.6	10.6
44	MIN		SDG	3	Sun	W	31	14	14	-3.9	10.1
45	GNB	@	SFO	4	Sun	W	17	3	17	-7.3	9.7
46	SEA	@	CIN	5	Sun	L	24	27	0	9.5	9.5
47	NYJ		WAS	6	Sun	W	34	20	11	-2.1	8.9
48	DEN	@	KAN	2	Thu	W	31	24	10	-1.2	8.8
49	TAM	@	NOR	2	Sun	W	26	19	10	-1.7	8.3
50	MIA	@	WAS	1	Sun	W	17	10	10	-2.1	7.9
51	SDG	@	CIN	2	Sun	L	19	24	-2	9.5	7.5
52	ATL	@	NYG	2	Sun	W	24	20	7	0.5	7.5
53	ARI		NOR	1	Sun	W	31	19	9	-1.7	7.3
54	DEN	@	OAK	5	Sun	W	16	10	9	-1.8	7.2
55	OAK	@	SDG	7	Sun	W	37	29	11	-3.9	7.1
56	CIN	@	BAL	3	Sun	W	28	24	7	0.0	7.0
57	DEN	@	DET	3	Sun	W	24	12	15	-8.1	6.9
58	CAR	@	TAM	4	Sun	W	37	23	17	-10.5	6.5
59	MIA		HOU	7	Sun	W	44	26	15	-8.6	6.4
60	CLE	@	BAL	5	Sun	W	33	30	6	0.0	6.0
61	BAL	@	ARI	7	Mon	L	18	26	-5	10.9	5.9
62	NYG		WAS	3	Thu	W	32	21	8	-2.1	5.9
63	GNB		KAN	3	Mon	W	38	28	7	-1.2	5.8
64	OAK	@	CLE	3	Sun	W	27	20	10	-4.3	5.7
65	IND		NWE	6	Sun	L	27	34	-10	15.7	5.7
66	WAS		PHI	4	Sun	W	23	20	0	5.5	5.5
67	BUF		IND	1	Sun	W	27	14	10	-4.7	5.3
68	NWE	@	IND	6	Sun	W	34	27	10	-4.7	5.3
69	PHI	@	ATL	1	Mon	L	24	26	1	4.3	5.3
70	ARI		BAL	7	Mon	W	26	18	5	0.0	5.0
71	BUF		NWE	2	Sun	L	32	40	-11	15.7	4.7
72	CAR	@	JAX	1	Sun	W	20	9	14	-9.3	4.7
73	HOU	@	JAX	6	Sun	W	31	20	14	-9.3	4.7
74	MIN	@	DEN	4	Sun	L	20	23	0	4.5	4.5
75	ATL		PHI	1	Mon	W	26	24	-1	5.5	4.5
76	NOR	@	IND	7	Sun	W	27	21	9	-4.7	4.3
77	CIN		SEA	5	Sun	W	27	24	0	4.2	4.2
78	STL		SEA	1	Sun	W	34	31	0	4.2	4.2
79	DET	@	SEA	4	Mon	L	10	13	0	4.2	4.2
80	MIN	@	DET	7	Sun	W	28	19	12	-8.1	3.9
81	CLE		TEN	2	Sun	W	28	14	11	-7.3	3.7
82	NOR	@	CAR	3	Sun	L	22	27	-2	5.3	3.3
83	SDG	@	GNB	6	Sun	L	20	27	-4	7.1	3.1
84	PIT	@	SDG	5	Mon	W	24	20	7	-3.9	3.1
85	DEN		BAL	1	Sun	W	19	13	3	0.0	3.0
86	GNB	@	CHI	1	Sun	W	31	23	11	-8.0	3.0
87	JAX	N	BUF	7	Sun	W	34	31	3	-0.1	2.9
88	CHI	@	KAN	5	Sun	W	18	17	4	-1.2	2.8
89	BAL		CIN	3	Sun	L	24	28	-7	9.5	2.5
90	SFO		BAL	6	Sun	W	25	20	2	0.0	2.0
91	NYG		DAL	7	Sun	W	27	20	4	-2.1	1.9
92	NOR	@	ARI	1	Sun	L	19	31	-9	10.9	1.9
93	SEA	@	STL	1	Sun	L	31	34	0	1.9	1.9
94	MIN		KAN	6	Sun	W	16	10	3	-1.2	1.8
95	DEN	@	CLE	6	Sun	W	26	23	6	-4.3	1.7
96	BAL	@	DEN	1	Sun	L	13	19	-3	4.5	1.5
97	KAN	@	HOU	1	Sun	W	27	20	10	-8.6	1.4
98	IND	@	HOU	5	Thu	W	27	20	10	-8.6	1.4
99	WAS	@	ATL	5	Sun	L	19	25	-3	4.3	1.3
100	HOU	@	CAR	2	Sun	L	17	24	-4	5.3	1.3
101	OAK		BAL	2	Sun	W	37	33	1	0.0	1.0
102	NOR		DAL	4	Sun	W	26	20	3	-2.1	0.9
103	ATL		WAS	5	Sun	W	25	19	3	-2.1	0.9
104	SFO	@	NYG	5	Sun	L	27	30	0	0.5	0.5
105	CAR		NOR	3	Sun	W	27	22	2	-1.7	0.3
106	SEA	@	GNB	2	Sun	L	17	27	-7	7.1	0.1
107	KAN	@	GNB	3	Mon	L	28	38	-7	7.1	0.1
108	GNB		SDG	6	Sun	W	27	20	4	-3.9	0.1
109	NYG	@	DAL	1	Sun	L	26	27	2	-2.1	-0.1
110	TAM	@	WAS	7	Sun	L	30	31	2	-2.1	-0.1
111	DEN		MIN	4	Sun	W	23	20	0	-0.3	-0.3
112	SDG		PIT	5	Mon	L	20	24	-7	6.6	-0.4
113	MIN		DET	2	Sun	W	26	16	7	-8.1	-1.1
114	ATL	@	TEN	7	Sun	W	10	7	6	-7.3	-1.3
115	CLE		DEN	6	Sun	L	23	26	-6	4.5	-1.5
116	DAL		NYG	1	Sun	W	27	26	-2	0.5	-1.5
117	TEN		ATL	7	Sun	L	7	10	-6	4.3	-1.7
118	SEA		CAR	6	Sun	L	23	27	-7	5.3	-1.7
119	CIN		SDG	2	Sun	W	24	19	2	-3.9	-1.9
120	PHI	@	WAS	4	Sun	L	20	23	0	-2.1	-2.1
121	IND	@	TEN	3	Sun	W	35	33	5	-7.3	-2.3
122	JAX		MIA	2	Sun	W	23	20	0	-2.3	-2.3
123	WAS	@	NYJ	6	Sun	L	20	34	-11	8.6	-2.4
124	STL		PIT	3	Sun	L	6	12	-9	6.6	-2.4
125	ARI	@	PIT	6	Sun	L	13	25	-9	6.6	-2.4
126	KAN	@	CIN	4	Sun	L	21	36	-12	9.5	-2.5
127	NYG		ATL	2	Sun	L	20	24	-7	4.3	-2.7
128	PHI	@	CAR	7	Sun	L	16	27	-8	5.3	-2.7
129	CHI		OAK	4	Sun	W	22	20	-1	-1.8	-2.8
130	BAL	@	OAK	2	Sun	L	33	37	-1	-1.8	-2.8
131	ARI		STL	4	Sun	L	22	24	-5	1.9	-3.1
132	BUF	@	TEN	5	Sun	W	14	13	4	-7.3	-3.3
133	KAN	@	MIN	6	Sun	L	10	16	-3	-0.3	-3.3
134	HOU		TAM	3	Sun	W	19	9	7	-10.5	-3.5
135	DAL	@	NYG	7	Sun	L	20	27	-4	0.5	-3.5
136	CHI		GNB	1	Sun	L	23	31	-11	7.1	-3.9
137	STL	@	GNB	5	Sun	L	10	24	-11	7.1	-3.9
138	CLE	@	SDG	4	Sun	L	27	30	0	-3.9	-3.9
139	TEN		BUF	5	Sun	L	13	14	-4	-0.1	-4.1
140	SDG		CLE	4	Sun	W	30	27	0	-4.3	-4.3
141	MIA	N	NYJ	4	Sun	L	14	27	-13	8.6	-4.4
142	OAK		DEN	5	Sun	L	10	16	-9	4.5	-4.5
143	NYJ		PHI	3	Sun	L	17	24	-10	5.5	-4.5
144	CAR		HOU	2	Sun	W	24	17	4	-8.6	-4.6
145	JAX	@	IND	4	Sun	L	13	16	0	-4.7	-4.7
146	DAL	@	NOR	4	Sun	L	20	26	-3	-1.7	-4.7
147	TAM		JAX	5	Sun	W	38	31	4	-9.3	-5.3
148	KAN		DEN	2	Thu	L	24	31	-10	4.5	-5.5
149	DET	@	SDG	1	Sun	L	28	33	-2	-3.9	-5.9
150	PIT		BAL	4	Thu	L	20	23	-6	0.0	-6.0
151	SDG		DET	1	Sun	W	33	28	2	-8.1	-6.1
152	BUF		CIN	6	Sun	L	21	34	-16	9.5	-6.5
153	OAK	@	CHI	4	Sun	L	20	22	1	-8.0	-7.0
154	NYG		SFO	5	Sun	W	30	27	0	-7.3	-7.3
155	DET	@	MIN	2	Sun	L	16	26	-7	-0.3	-7.3
156	IND		NYJ	2	Mon	L	7	20	-16	8.6	-7.4
157	WAS	@	NYG	3	Thu	L	21	32	-8	0.5	-7.5
158	DET		CHI	6	Sun	W	37	34	0	-8.0	-8.0
159	SEA		DET	4	Mon	W	13	10	0	-8.1	-8.1
160	CHI	@	DET	6	Sun	L	34	37	0	-8.1	-8.1
161	PIT	@	KAN	7	Sun	L	13	23	-7	-1.2	-8.2
162	JAX		CAR	1	Sun	L	9	20	-14	5.3	-8.7
163	ATL	@	NOR	6	Thu	L	21	31	-7	-1.7	-8.7
164	BAL	@	SFO	6	Sun	L	20	25	-2	-7.3	-9.3
165	IND		JAX	4	Sun	W	16	13	0	-9.3	-9.3
166	MIA	@	JAX	2	Sun	L	20	23	0	-9.3	-9.3
167	CLE	@	NYJ	1	Sun	L	10	31	-18	8.6	-9.4
168	TEN		IND	3	Sun	L	33	35	-5	-4.7	-9.7
169	DAL		ATL	3	Sun	L	28	39	-14	4.3	-9.7
170	SFO		GNB	4	Sun	L	3	17	-17	7.1	-9.9
171	IND	@	BUF	1	Sun	L	14	27	-10	-0.1	-10.1
172	BAL		CLE	5	Sun	L	30	33	-6	-4.3	-10.3
173	MIA	@	NWE	8	Thu	L	7	36	-26	15.7	-10.3
174	DET		DEN	3	Sun	L	12	24	-15	4.5	-10.5
175	IND		NOR	7	Sun	L	21	27	-9	-1.7	-10.7
176	HOU		KAN	1	Sun	L	20	27	-10	-1.2	-11.2
177	DAL		NWE	5	Sun	L	6	30	-27	15.7	-11.3
178	NYG	@	PHI	6	Mon	L	7	27	-17	5.5	-11.5
179	TAM		CAR	4	Sun	L	23	37	-17	5.3	-11.7
180	CLE		OAK	3	Sun	L	20	27	-10	-1.8	-11.8
181	KAN		CHI	5	Sun	L	17	18	-4	-8.0	-12.0
182	WAS		MIA	1	Sun	L	10	17	-10	-2.3	-12.3
183	BUF	N	JAX	7	Sun	L	31	34	-3	-9.3	-12.3
184	DET		MIN	7	Sun	L	19	28	-12	-0.3	-12.3
185	WAS		TAM	7	Sun	W	31	30	-2	-10.5	-12.5
186	SDG		OAK	7	Sun	L	29	37	-11	-1.8	-12.8
187	CLE	@	STL	7	Sun	L	6	24	-15	1.9	-13.1
188	STL	@	WAS	2	Sun	L	10	24	-11	-2.1	-13.1
189	NOR	@	PHI	5	Sun	L	17	39	-19	5.5	-13.5
190	OAK		CIN	1	Sun	L	13	33	-23	9.5	-13.5
191	SDG	@	MIN	3	Sun	L	14	31	-14	-0.3	-14.3
192	JAX	@	TAM	5	Sun	L	31	38	-4	-10.5	-14.5
193	HOU		IND	5	Thu	L	20	27	-10	-4.7	-14.7
194	PHI		DAL	2	Sun	L	10	20	-13	-2.1	-15.1
195	TEN	@	CLE	2	Sun	L	14	28	-11	-4.3	-15.3
196	JAX	@	NWE	3	Sun	L	17	51	-31	15.7	-15.3
197	SFO	@	PIT	2	Sun	L	18	43	-22	6.6	-15.4
198	TAM	@	HOU	3	Sun	L	9	19	-7	-8.6	-15.6
199	SFO		SEA	7	Thu	L	3	20	-20	4.2	-15.8
200	BUF		NYG	4	Sun	L	10	24	-17	0.5	-16.5
201	CHI		ARI	2	Sun	L	23	48	-28	10.9	-17.1
202	DET		ARI	5	Sun	L	17	42	-28	10.9	-17.1
203	HOU	@	MIA	7	Sun	L	26	44	-15	-2.3	-17.3
204	CHI	@	SEA	3	Sun	L	0	26	-23	4.2	-18.8
205	HOU	@	ATL	4	Sun	L	21	48	-24	4.3	-19.7
206	NOR		TAM	2	Sun	L	19	26	-10	-10.5	-20.5
207	MIN	@	SFO	1	Mon	L	3	20	-14	-7.3	-21.3
208	JAX		HOU	6	Sun	L	20	31	-14	-8.6	-22.6
209	SFO	@	ARI	3	Sun	L	7	47	-37	10.9	-26.1
210	MIA		BUF	3	Sun	L	14	41	-30	-0.1	-30.1
211	TEN		MIA	6	Sun	L	10	38	-31	-2.3	-33.3
212	TAM		TEN	1	Sun	L	14	42	-31	-7.3	-38.3

I’ll leave the commentary to you guys today.

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