The AFC playoff seeding is pretty simple. Here are the standings after 16 weeks:
| Tm | W | L | T | W-L% |
PF | PA | PD | MoV | SoS | SRS | OSRS | DSRS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 13 | 2 | 0 | .867 | 503 | 272 | 231 | 15.4 | 0.1 | 15.5 | 11.2 | 4.4 |
| New England Patriots | 12 | 3 | 0 | .800 | 396 | 198 | 198 | 13.2 | -1.1 | 12.1 | 3.5 | 8.6 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 11 | 4 | 0 | .733 | 420 | 287 | 133 | 8.9 | 0.4 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 3.2 |
| Buffalo Bills | 10 | 5 | 0 | .667 | 308 | 246 | 62 | 4.1 | -1.0 | 3.1 | -2.5 | 5.6 |
| Houston Texans | 10 | 5 | 0 | .667 | 364 | 350 | 14 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| Tennessee Titans | 8 | 7 | 0 | .533 | 367 | 317 | 50 | 3.3 | -0.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8 | 7 | 0 | .533 | 279 | 275 | 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.6 | -3.9 | 4.5 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 7 | 8 | 0 | .467 | 341 | 335 | 6 | 0.4 | -0.8 | -0.4 | -0.9 | 0.4 |
| Oakland Raiders | 7 | 8 | 0 | .467 | 298 | 403 | -105 | -7.0 | -0.2 | -7.2 | -2.3 | -5.0 |
| Cleveland Browns | 6 | 9 | 0 | .400 | 312 | 360 | -48 | -3.2 | 2.3 | -0.9 | -0.4 | -0.6 |
| Denver Broncos | 6 | 9 | 0 | .400 | 266 | 301 | -35 | -2.3 | 0.6 | -1.8 | -4.3 | 2.5 |
| New York Jets | 6 | 9 | 0 | .400 | 263 | 353 | -90 | -6.0 | -1.4 | -7.4 | -5.7 | -1.6 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 5 | 10 | 0 | .333 | 316 | 314 | 2 | 0.1 | -1.5 | -1.4 | -1.9 | 0.5 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5 | 10 | 0 | .333 | 262 | 377 | -115 | -7.7 | -0.6 | -8.2 | -5.9 | -2.3 |
| Miami Dolphins | 4 | 11 | 0 | .267 | 279 | 470 | -191 | -12.7 | -0.3 | -13.0 | -3.2 | -9.8 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 1 | 14 | 0 | .067 | 246 | 397 | -151 | -10.1 | 1.7 | -8.4 | -5.3 | -3.1 |
The Ravens beat the Patriots head-to-head, so Baltimore has locked up the #1 seed.
The Patriots have a 1-game lead over Kansas City but lost head-to-head; New England will get the #2 seed and the all-important bye week unless New England loses at home to Miami AND the Chiefs beat the Chargers at home. That is very unlikely to happen: New England is a 16.5-point favorite.
The distinction between the 3 seed and the 4 seed isn’t very important. That said, the Chiefs are the overwhelming favorite to get the 3 seed, but the Texans do hold the tiebreaker by virtue of the head-to-head win. Kansas City hosts the Chargers, while the Texans host the Titans. In reality, Houston may decide to rest an injured Deshaun Watson and any other injured players to get ready for the playoffs, which makes it even less likely that Houston would jump from the 4 to the 3 seed.
The Bills are locked in to the 5 seed. Buffalo is 2.0 games behind the Patriots for the AFC East crown, and 2.0 games ahead of the other wild card hopefuls.
So that leaves just the 6 seed, which will come down to the Titans, Steelers, or…. Raiders.
Who Will Get The 6 Seed?
Tennessee and Pittsburgh are both 8-7; in week 17, the Titans play a Texans team with little to play for, and the Steelers play a Baltimore team with nothing to play for. So how would a tie get broken?
The first tiebreaker would be head-to-head, but the two teams did not play each other.
The second tiebreaker is record in conference games. Both teams are 6-5 in the AFC, with one AFC game remaining. So this will not resolve a tie.
The third tiebreaker is record against common opponents, of which there are five. Both teams beat the Chargers, and both teams lost to the Bills. The other three games involve division opponents: Tennessee played Indianapolis twice and Cleveland once (splitting with the Colts and beating the Browns, while Pittsburgh played Cleveland twice (splitting) and the Colts (winning). So in common games, the two teams are both 3-2.
The fourth tiebreaker is strength of victory, and this is where the Titans hold a massive edge over Pittsburgh. The Titans beat a 10-win Chiefs team, while two of Pittsburgh’s victories came against the 1-win Bengals. In the event of a 2-team tie between Tennessee and Pittsburgh, Tennessee will always win because of strength of victory.
So if the Titans win, they’re in. And if the Titans lose and Pittsburgh wins, the Steelers are in. But what if both teams lose — which would probably be the expectation absent week 17 resting given that their opponents both have better records than them?
The 8-8 AFC Wild Card Team Is….
At that point, they would both be 8-8, and Tennessee would still, of course, hold the tiebreaker over Pittsburgh. But let’s not forget about the 7-8 Colts, who are 1-point favorites in Jacksonville on Sunday. An Indianapolis victory would make the Colts 8-8 and 4-2 in the AFC South, while the Titans would be 2-4 in the AFC South. This means Indianapolis would actually finish 2nd in the division, which would kick the Titans out of any tiebreaker.
In a tiebreaker between the Steelers and Colts, Pittsburgh’s head-to-head win would carry the day. So if the Colts can pull off a victory, the Steelers would be in with a Tennessee loss even if Pittsburgh loses…. unless 7-8 Oakland wins, too. With one caveat, if Oakland gets to 8-8, the Raiders are in the playoffs with losses by the Steelers, Titans, and Jaguars.
If Oakland, who are 4-point underdogs to Denver in Mile High in week 17, defeats the Broncos, the Raiders would be 8-8, too. A four-way tie between Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Indianapolis, and Oakland would be resolved as follows:
1) The Titans are knocked out first, as a result of a worse AFC South record than the Colts. In the event of a tie with three or more teams, we break ties within a division first.
2) As between Pittsburgh, Oakland, and Indianapolis, both the Raiders and Steelers beat the Colts. That knocks out Indianapolis
3) In terms of AFC record, the Steelers are 6-5 and the Raiders are 5-6; but since this tiebreaker only matters if Pittsburgh loses and Oakland wins on Sunday, both teams would be 6-6 in this scenario.
4) Common opponents are the Bengals (Pittsburgh 2-0, Oakland 1-0), the Chargers (Oakland 2-0, Pittsburgh 1-0), Indianapolis (both teams won) and the Jets (both teams lost). Yes, in addition to both teams avoiding all of this by just beating the Jets, both teams could have avoided going to another round of tiebreakers by not losing to the Jets. Somehow, this doesn’t disqualify anyone.
5) Strength of Victory again crushes Pittsburgh here. The Steelers opponents have 37.5 wins: Cincinnati twice (1), Miami (4), the Chargers (5), Arizona (5.5), the Browns (6), the Colts (7), and the Rams (8). The Raiders opponents have 40.5 wins: Cincinnati (1), the Lions (3.5), the Chargers twice (5), the Broncos twice (6), the Colts (7), and the Bears (7).
Let’s eliminate the duplicates: the Colts, and one win against the Chargers and Bengals each. That leaves the math as follows:
Pittsburgh beat CIN (1), MIA (4), ARI (5.5), CLE (6), and LAR (8) for a total of 24.5.
Oakland beat DET (3.5), LAC (5), DEN (6), DEN (6), and CHI (7) for a total of 27.5.
Now, I said there was one caveat. Is there any way for Pittsburgh to catch Oakland?
Cincinnati and Cleveland play each other, so that’s 1 win either way. The Rams host the Cardinals, so that’s 1 win either way, too. A Miami upset over New England would, while shocking, bring Pittsburgh up to 27.5 here.
Is it possible Oakland’s 5 teams all lose this weekend? The Lions host the Packers, the Chargers travel to Kansas City, the Broncos have to lose to Oakland under this scenario, and the Bears travel to Minnesota. So yes, while it would involve a Patriots loss to Miami, it is possible that the Steelers and Raiders would be tied in strength of victory.
In that case, the next tiebreaker would be strength of schedule, which would the Steelers would win. Pittsburgh played the 49ers, Seahawks, Patriots, and Ravens twice; the Steelers win any tiebreaker that boils down to strength of schedule.