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538: Analyzing The Eagles Surprising 3-0 Start

Today at 538: a look at some key numbers surrounding the Eagles hot start.

At 3-0, the Philadelphia Eagles are quickly gaining altitude.  Our preseason Elo ratings gave the Eagles a mere 1 percent chance to win the Super Bowl and a 27 percent probability of winning the NFC East; now those numbers are up to 6 percent and 59 percent, respectively.

Tom Brady’s suspension notwithstanding, three of the league’s other four current undefeated teams had much higher preseason Super Bowl odds: Denver was at 11 percent, with New England at 7 percent and Minnesota at 4 percent. Like Philly, Baltimore was at 1 percent — but at least they were not breaking in a new coach and a new quarterback. Philadelphia’s hot start is the one very few saw coming.

You can read the full article here.

  • Tom

    You probably know this, but there is no link above on the word “here”. Also, when I go to 538, I’m not seeing the article anywhere. I’m probably checking this too soon, I guess!

  • Richie

    Has the article actually been posted on 538 yet? I can’t find it.

  • Adam

    Is there a reason you used ANY/A instead of NY/A in this analysis? I thought the latter was more predictive…

  • Tom

    What I’m following is Philly’s defense…they’ve allowed 20 points (not counting return scores) in 3 games, putting them at 6.7/game. Only 18 teams since 1970 have allowed fewer (defense only) points through three games. 12 of those teams went to the playoffs, 3 of them went to the Super Bowl – ’77 Broncos, ’80 Eagles, ’06 Bears…and they all lost. This should be interesting…

    • Adam

      The closest comp is probably the ’09 Broncos – unexpectedly dominant defense to start the season with a rookie head coach. But then they took a major step backwards in the second half of the season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the same thing happen to the Eagles.