With opening day kickoff just a few hours away, let’s look at the final pre-season Super Bowl odds.
The Patriots are the Super Bowl favorite for what feels like the 20th season in a row. New England is an 11/2 favorite to win it all, which means if you bet $100 (or $200) on the Patriots to win Super Bowl LIII, you would win $650 (or $1,100). That means the Patriots would need to have a 15.4% chance of winning the Super Bowl to make that an even bet (the result of 2 divided by (2 + 11)). But if you do that same calculation for every team, you’ll see that the total Super Bowl percentages equal 131%; that’s because of the vig, the amount that Vegas deflates the payout in order to make money.
If you divide each team’s percentage taken from their odds by 1.31, you get the implied odds of that team winning it all. For New England, this means the Patriots really have about a 12% chance of winning the Super Bowl, according to the oddsmakers.
The rest of the AFC East? The Bills have the worst chance in the league at 0.4%, while the Jets, Dolphins, and Cardinals are all at 150-to-1, for an implied percentage of 0.5%. In other words, the Patriots odds of winning the Super Bowl are more than 8 times greater than the odds of any other AFC East team’s of winning it all. As usual, we have an AFC East sandwich, with the Patriots on top of the league, the Jets/Bills/Dolphins at the bottom, and the rest of the NFL in between.
Here are the full odds for each team this year, courtesy of Bovada.
| Rank | Team | Odds | Perc | Implied Perc |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England Patriots | 11/2 | 15.4% | 11.8% |
| 2 | Los Angeles Rams | 17/2 | 10.5% | 8.1% |
| 2 | Philadelphia Eagles | 17/2 | 10.5% | 8.1% |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 10/1 | 9.1% | 7/0% |
| 5 | Green Bay Packers | 11/1 | 8.3% | 6.4% |
| 5 | Minnesota Vikings | 11/1 | 8.3% | 6.4% |
| 7 | New Orleans Saints | 14/1 | 6.7% | 5.1% |
| 8 | Atlanta Falcons | 15/1 | 6.3% | 4.8% |
| 9 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 18/1 | 5.3% | 4.0% |
| 10 | Houston Texans | 20/1 | 4.8% | 3.6% |
| 10 | Los Angeles Chargers | 20/1 | 4.8% | 3.6% |
| 10 | San Francisco 49ers | 20/1 | 4.8% | 3.6% |
| 13 | Kansas City Chiefs | 25/1 | 3.8% | 2.9% |
| 14 | Dallas Cowboys | 28/1 | 3.4% | 2.6% |
| 15 | Oakland Raiders | 35/1 | 2.8% | 2.1% |
| 16 | Carolina Panthers | 40/1 | 2.4% | 1.9% |
| 16 | New York Giants | 40/1 | 2.4% | 1.9% |
| 16 | Tennessee Titans | 40/1 | 2.4% | 1.9% |
| 19 | Baltimore Ravens | 45/1 | 2.2% | 1.7% |
| 19 | Denver Broncos | 45/1 | 2.2% | 1.7% |
| 21 | Detroit Lions | 50/1 | 2.0% | 1.5% |
| 22 | Seattle Seahawks | 55/1 | 1.8% | 1.4% |
| 23 | Chicago Bears | 66/1 | 1.5% | 1.1% |
| 24 | Cincinnati Bengals | 70/1 | 1.4% | 1.1% |
| 24 | Indianapolis Colts | 70/1 | 1.4% | 1.1% |
| 24 | Washington Redskins | 70/1 | 1.4% | 1.1% |
| 27 | Cleveland Browns | 75/1 | 1.3% | 1.0% |
| 28 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 90/1 | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| 29 | Arizona Cardinals | 150/1 | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 29 | Miami Dolphins | 150/1 | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 29 | New York Jets | 150/1 | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| 32 | Buffalo Bills | 200/1 | 0.5% | 0.4% |