Junk

by Chase Stuart on June 30, 2012

The table below shows the projected strength of schedule and actual strength of schedule for each team from 2003 to 2012. For both projected and actual SOS data, I used both win-loss records and the SRS.

Tm	YR	Proj. SOS	Proj. SRS	Act. SOS	Act. SRS
PIT	2008	0.598	3.2	0.526	2.1
MIA	2009	0.594	2.8	0.559	3.6
IND	2008	0.594	3.1	0.498	1.6
CAR	2009	0.592	2.4	0.539	3.5
NWE	2009	0.59	1.6	0.516	2.3
ATL	2009	0.588	2.2	0.504	2.7
TAM	2009	0.58	2.3	0.555	4.1
BUF	2009	0.57	1.4	0.516	2.4
NYJ	2009	0.568	0.9	0.516	1.6
JAX	2008	0.559	1.4	0.537	1.6
NOR	2009	0.557	0.7	0.426	0.2
CAR	2011	0.555	0.8	0.504	0.1
BAL	2008	0.551	1.9	0.522	1
MIN	2008	0.551	0.9	0.504	1.2
NYG	2012	0.547	2.1	0.522	0.9
HOU	2010	0.547	0.4	0.524	0.4
TEN	2010	0.547	0.2	0.508	-0.1
HOU	2008	0.547	1.9	0.518	1.4
CIN	2008	0.547	1.7	0.553	3
CLE	2008	0.547	1.6	0.572	2.7
MIA	2005	0.547	3.3	0.457	-0.8
DEN	2012	0.543	-0.1	0.457	-1.9
DAL	2010	0.543	0.5	0.512	0.5
TEN	2008	0.543	2.1	0.459	0.1
DET	2008	0.543	1.4	0.559	2.5
CIN	2006	0.543	2.1	0.535	1.4
NYG	2006	0.543	0.9	0.52	0.5
SDG	2005	0.543	3.1	0.559	3.3
NYJ	2003	0.541	1.4	0.527	0.4
DAL	2003	0.541	1	0.461	-2.3
PHI	2003	0.541	0.4	0.477	-1
CIN	2010	0.539	3	0.582	3.1
BUF	2007	0.539	3	0.516	2.3
OAK	2007	0.539	1.3	0.516	1.2
TAM	2006	0.539	1	0.535	0.9
NOR	2006	0.539	0.7	0.461	-1.7
NWE	2005	0.539	3.1	0.508	0.6
TAM	2003	0.539	0.1	0.508	-0.7
WAS	2003	0.537	1.3	0.531	-0.4
JAX	2003	0.537	0.6	0.543	1
BUF	2011	0.535	2.5	0.52	0.5
JAX	2010	0.535	-0.2	0.453	-0.4
PHI	2009	0.535	0.6	0.485	0.2
NWE	2007	0.535	2.5	0.469	0.4
NYJ	2005	0.535	3.1	0.528	0.8
KAN	2005	0.535	2.4	0.504	2.1
HOU	2003	0.533	1.7	0.571	1.9
NWE	2010	0.531	1.7	0.504	2.6
GNB	2008	0.531	1	0.504	0.5
CHI	2008	0.531	0.8	0.475	0.6
PIT	2006	0.531	1	0.496	1
BUF	2005	0.531	2.6	0.5	0.2
BAL	2005	0.531	1.3	0.524	0.3
MIA	2004	0.531	1.4	0.555	2.7
CLE	2012	0.527	-0.3	0.508	-1.2
NYG	2010	0.527	0.4	0.453	-0.9
NYG	2009	0.527	0.9	0.535	1.6
KAN	2006	0.527	2.1	0.492	0
TEN	2006	0.527	1.5	0.57	3.5
OAK	2005	0.527	3	0.539	3
CLE	2005	0.527	1.3	0.508	0.1
NWE	2003	0.527	0.8	0.485	0.1
STL	2012	0.523	1.3	0.539	3.4
BAL	2012	0.523	0.1	0.496	-0.5
WAS	2010	0.523	-0.1	0.516	0.9
DAL	2008	0.523	0.3	0.498	0.8
WAS	2008	0.523	-0.1	0.479	0.1
BAL	2006	0.523	1.1	0.461	-0.2
HOU	2006	0.523	0.8	0.504	1.7
DEN	2005	0.523	2.7	0.5	2.2
CIN	2005	0.523	1.8	0.477	-0.6
ARI	2004	0.523	0.8	0.461	-2.5
TEN	2003	0.523	1.4	0.473	-0.5
CAR	2003	0.523	0.2	0.446	-2.2
ATL	2003	0.523	-0.1	0.539	0.3
NYG	2003	0.521	0.6	0.555	0.4
SDG	2012	0.52	-1.7	0.457	-2.4
DEN	2011	0.52	2.6	0.52	-0.2
KAN	2011	0.52	2.4	0.512	-0.2
JAX	2011	0.52	1.5	0.5	-0.3
NYJ	2011	0.52	1.2	0.5	0.1
SDG	2011	0.52	1	0.516	-0.9
IND	2011	0.52	0.8	0.539	0.4
DET	2011	0.52	0.6	0.535	0.6
PHI	2010	0.52	0.3	0.492	0.3
NYG	2008	0.52	0.3	0.502	0.1
PHI	2008	0.52	-0.4	0.514	-0.1
TEN	2007	0.52	1.1	0.5	0.4
PHI	2006	0.52	0.5	0.477	-1
NOR	2003	0.52	0.3	0.5	-1.1
IND	2003	0.518	1	0.492	0
PHI	2012	0.516	0.7	0.508	1.4
MIA	2011	0.516	1.7	0.504	0
HOU	2011	0.516	0.5	0.453	-1.9
MIN	2011	0.516	0.5	0.559	1.1
CLE	2010	0.516	2.4	0.57	2.3
IND	2010	0.516	-0.4	0.473	-0.1
DAL	2009	0.516	1.4	0.489	0.2
JAX	2009	0.516	-0.8	0.496	-0.9
NYJ	2007	0.516	2.5	0.524	1.7
IND	2007	0.516	1	0.516	0.2
KAN	2007	0.516	0.7	0.516	1.3
DEN	2006	0.516	2.2	0.531	0.4
OAK	2006	0.516	2	0.555	0.7
WAS	2006	0.516	-0.1	0.512	0.3
JAX	2004	0.516	1	0.528	2
SEA	2004	0.516	-0.2	0.445	-2.8
MIA	2003	0.516	0	0.512	0.3
ARI	2012	0.512	1.7	0.559	3.5
MIN	2012	0.512	0.4	0.52	1.4
IND	2009	0.512	-0.8	0.473	-0.9
MIA	2007	0.512	1.8	0.539	2.2
PIT	2007	0.512	1	0.453	-2.6
CIN	2007	0.512	0.3	0.461	-2.1
CLE	2006	0.512	1.2	0.535	1.5
HOU	2004	0.512	1.4	0.504	1.2
NWE	2004	0.512	1.2	0.492	1.8
CIN	2004	0.512	0.9	0.543	2.6
BUF	2004	0.512	0.8	0.512	1.1
OAK	2004	0.512	0.6	0.571	3.4
NYJ	2004	0.512	0.4	0.524	2.1
STL	2004	0.512	0.2	0.489	-1.4
SFO	2004	0.512	-0.8	0.489	-1.6
CAR	2012	0.508	-0.2	0.516	1.2
GNB	2011	0.508	-0.4	0.457	-1.2
NOR	2011	0.508	-0.4	0.442	-1.6
DET	2010	0.508	1.7	0.543	2.3
BAL	2010	0.508	1.5	0.485	1
TEN	2009	0.508	-0.5	0.539	0.2
CLE	2007	0.508	0.7	0.43	-2.3
BAL	2007	0.508	0.7	0.516	0.1
JAX	2007	0.508	-0.1	0.516	0.1
STL	2006	0.508	0.6	0.465	-3.1
ATL	2006	0.508	-0.4	0.457	-0.8
PIT	2005	0.508	1.6	0.492	-0.4
IND	2004	0.508	0.8	0.5	0.7
SDG	2004	0.508	0.7	0.477	0.8
BAL	2004	0.508	0.1	0.551	3.1
GNB	2004	0.508	-0.8	0.457	-2.5
CIN	2003	0.508	0.1	0.457	0
HOU	2009	0.506	-1.1	0.504	-1.5
DAL	2012	0.504	1	0.524	1.8
SEA	2012	0.504	0.8	0.504	1.8
NOR	2012	0.504	-0.7	0.522	1
NWE	2011	0.504	0.8	0.449	-1.4
DAL	2011	0.504	-0.7	0.473	0.3
PHI	2011	0.504	-0.9	0.489	0.5
CHI	2010	0.504	1.4	0.473	1.1
MIN	2010	0.504	1.1	0.539	2.6
HOU	2007	0.504	0.8	0.516	0.3
DEN	2007	0.504	0.6	0.516	1.6
SDG	2007	0.504	0.4	0.5	0.8
DET	2007	0.504	-0.6	0.543	2.6
DAL	2006	0.504	0	0.457	-1
CAR	2006	0.504	-1	0.473	-0.5
HOU	2005	0.504	1	0.535	0.7
JAX	2005	0.504	0.8	0.465	-1
IND	2005	0.504	0	0.457	-1.2
NOR	2004	0.504	-0.6	0.465	-2
BUF	2003	0.504	0.7	0.57	1.3
IND	2012	0.5	0.2	0.442	-2.8
JAX	2012	0.5	0.1	0.539	-1.1
CIN	2012	0.5	-0.4	0.438	-2.4
PIT	2012	0.5	-0.7	0.465	-2.1
CHI	2011	0.5	0.5	0.528	0.9
BUF	2010	0.5	1.6	0.578	4.3
NYJ	2010	0.5	1.4	0.492	2.5
MIA	2010	0.5	1.3	0.539	4
OAK	2010	0.5	-1.7	0.469	-2.3
PHI	2007	0.5	0.5	0.563	3
WAS	2007	0.5	0.5	0.555	3
MIN	2007	0.5	-0.7	0.504	0.4
ARI	2006	0.5	0	0.5	-2.2
ATL	2005	0.5	-0.3	0.493	-1.8
MIA	2012	0.496	-0.5	0.5	-0.8
OAK	2012	0.496	-1.3	0.469	-1.3
TAM	2011	0.496	-0.3	0.551	2.3
ATL	2010	0.496	0.4	0.485	-1.8
NYG	2007	0.496	0.2	0.516	1.9
DAL	2007	0.496	0	0.496	1.3
GNB	2005	0.496	-1.5	0.532	-0.8
CHI	2004	0.496	0.6	0.465	-2
MIN	2004	0.496	-0.2	0.481	-2.3
DEN	2003	0.494	0.9	0.5	0.5
CHI	2012	0.492	0.4	0.512	0.8
DET	2012	0.492	0.4	0.567	1.8
NYJ	2012	0.492	0.2	0.512	-0.1
KAN	2012	0.492	-1.5	0.516	-0.6
OAK	2011	0.492	1.3	0.504	-0.3
CLE	2011	0.492	-0.4	0.531	0.2
NYG	2011	0.492	-0.5	0.52	2
ATL	2011	0.492	-1	0.481	0.3
PIT	2010	0.492	1.3	0.5	1.3
WAS	2009	0.492	0.2	0.493	-0.2
GNB	2007	0.492	-0.4	0.469	0
TEN	2005	0.492	0.2	0.512	0.1
NOR	2005	0.492	-0.7	0.524	-0.9
CAR	2005	0.492	-1.4	0.45	-3.2
TAM	2005	0.492	-1.5	0.45	-2.6
CAR	2004	0.492	0.1	0.508	-1.7
WAS	2004	0.492	-0.2	0.477	-1.8
DET	2004	0.492	-0.6	0.496	-1.8
SFO	2012	0.488	0.6	0.504	2.4
WAS	2012	0.488	0.6	0.494	0.4
ATL	2012	0.488	-0.7	0.422	-1.1
TEN	2011	0.488	-0.8	0.461	-1.5
SEA	2011	0.488	-1.6	0.512	0.4
GNB	2010	0.488	0.7	0.52	1.7
KAN	2010	0.488	-2.8	0.414	-3.2
STL	2008	0.488	-0.7	0.534	-0.5
SEA	2007	0.488	-1.7	0.414	-4.6
SDG	2006	0.488	0.6	0.457	-1.6
JAX	2006	0.488	0.4	0.531	1.4
DET	2005	0.488	-1.8	0.504	-1
NYG	2005	0.488	-1.9	0.492	0.8
KAN	2004	0.488	-0.1	0.551	2.3
DEN	2004	0.488	-0.6	0.485	1.1
ATL	2004	0.488	-0.7	0.434	-2.4
SDG	2003	0.486	1.7	0.504	1.2
TAM	2012	0.484	-0.2	0.502	0.3
DEN	2010	0.484	-2.3	0.516	-1
KAN	2009	0.484	0	0.516	-0.3
SDG	2009	0.484	-0.8	0.453	-1.7
SFO	2008	0.484	-0.6	0.448	-2.7
NOR	2007	0.484	-2	0.481	-2
IND	2006	0.484	-0.4	0.5	1.7
TEN	2004	0.484	0.1	0.512	1.5
CLE	2004	0.484	-0.5	0.59	3.7
TAM	2004	0.484	-1.5	0.477	-2.5
OAK	2003	0.482	0.2	0.516	1.3
TEN	2012	0.48	0.2	0.512	-1.2
TAM	2010	0.48	-0.3	0.477	-2
DEN	2009	0.48	0.6	0.528	0.2
OAK	2009	0.48	0.2	0.528	1.1
CHI	2005	0.48	-1.7	0.457	-2.2
MIN	2005	0.48	-2	0.485	-1.1
NYG	2004	0.48	-1.4	0.516	-1.2
BAL	2003	0.48	0	0.457	-0.6
CLE	2003	0.48	-0.5	0.539	1.4
CHI	2003	0.48	-0.8	0.489	0.4
MIN	2003	0.479	-0.5	0.457	-1
STL	2011	0.477	-1.8	0.59	2.9
CAR	2010	0.477	-0.6	0.575	0
SEA	2008	0.477	-1.3	0.498	-1.5
CAR	2007	0.477	-1.9	0.524	-0.8
SFO	2006	0.477	-0.2	0.5	-1.6
BUF	2006	0.477	-0.9	0.574	2.9
DAL	2005	0.477	-1.3	0.524	2.1
PIT	2004	0.477	-0.5	0.485	1.4
KAN	2003	0.475	-0.2	0.418	-1.2
BUF	2012	0.473	-0.5	0.481	-1
HOU	2012	0.473	-0.9	0.496	-1.9
PIT	2011	0.473	-1	0.492	-0.8
CIN	2011	0.473	-1.3	0.492	-0.9
WAS	2011	0.473	-1.5	0.477	0.8
TAM	2007	0.473	-1.8	0.469	-2.8
ATL	2007	0.473	-2	0.516	-0.9
STL	2007	0.473	-2.4	0.512	-2
NWE	2006	0.473	-1.6	0.496	1
DET	2006	0.473	-2	0.524	-0.5
PHI	2004	0.473	-1.4	0.453	-2.3
PIT	2003	0.473	-0.7	0.5	0.6
DET	2003	0.473	-0.9	0.535	1
GNB	2012	0.469	0	0.508	1.2
NOR	2010	0.469	-0.3	0.469	-2.5
TAM	2008	0.469	-1.4	0.481	-0.1
SFO	2007	0.469	-2	0.465	-2.9
MIA	2006	0.469	-1.1	0.543	2.1
SFO	2005	0.469	-2.5	0.539	0.7
DAL	2004	0.469	-0.9	0.516	-0.8
DET	2009	0.467	-0.1	0.524	0.1
SFO	2011	0.465	-2.6	0.449	-1.1
CIN	2009	0.465	0.5	0.493	-0.2
STL	2009	0.465	-1.2	0.52	-1.1
MIA	2008	0.465	-1	0.461	-2.3
CAR	2008	0.465	-1.3	0.489	0.3
ARI	2008	0.465	-1.4	0.487	-2
CHI	2007	0.465	-1.5	0.543	2.1
NYJ	2006	0.465	-1.8	0.469	0.7
WAS	2005	0.465	-2.2	0.539	1.9
ATL	2008	0.461	-1.1	0.459	-0.3
ARI	2007	0.461	-2.6	0.434	-4.3
BAL	2011	0.457	-0.7	0.477	-0.9
SFO	2010	0.457	-2.4	0.489	-3.3
SEA	2009	0.457	-2.1	0.477	-2.4
NYJ	2008	0.457	-1.3	0.471	-2.9
SEA	2006	0.457	-1.5	0.453	-3.2
MIN	2006	0.457	-1.8	0.489	-1.3
SEA	2005	0.457	-3.3	0.43	-2.2
STL	2003	0.457	-2.4	0.434	-1.6
NWE	2012	0.453	-1.2	0.496	-1.4
SEA	2010	0.453	-2.3	0.485	-3.4
SDG	2010	0.453	-3.3	0.457	-2.6
KAN	2008	0.453	-1.1	0.537	0.1
PHI	2005	0.453	-2.7	0.532	2.6
SFO	2003	0.451	-2.2	0.512	0.1
STL	2010	0.449	-2.2	0.449	-4.3
CLE	2009	0.449	-0.1	0.512	-0.2
BUF	2008	0.449	-0.7	0.453	-3
NOR	2008	0.449	-2.1	0.496	-0.3
GNB	2006	0.449	-3.3	0.5	-0.4
ARI	2005	0.449	-3.3	0.508	-0.2
GNB	2003	0.449	-0.7	0.489	-0.3
ARI	2010	0.445	-2.3	0.465	-3.6
DEN	2008	0.445	-0.8	0.457	-0.9
CHI	2006	0.445	-2.7	0.43	-2.8
STL	2005	0.445	-3.3	0.485	-1
SFO	2009	0.443	-1.8	0.477	-3
ARI	2003	0.443	-2.6	0.543	1.6
SEA	2003	0.443	-3.1	0.465	-0.7
ARI	2011	0.441	-2.8	0.469	0
ARI	2009	0.441	-2.1	0.446	-3.4
BAL	2009	0.438	-0.9	0.524	-0.7
OAK	2008	0.438	-1.4	0.52	0.3
PIT	2009	0.434	-1.1	0.489	-1.1
GNB	2009	0.428	-2.1	0.442	-2.9
SDG	2008	0.422	-1.7	0.516	-0.8
MIN	2009	0.42	-1.5	0.442	-2.7
CHI	2009	0.414	-1.4	0.496	-0.9
NWE	2008	0.387	-3.1	0.481	-2.4

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