FootballPerspective.com — NFL History and Stats

Checkdowns: Career passing stats in wins and losses

by Chase Stuart on January 5, 2013

in Checkdowns, History, Passing

Is this a thinly-veiled Brady/Manning post?

Last weekend, I looked at career rushing stats in wins and losses; today I will do the same but for quarterbacks.

I looked at all games, including playoffs, from 1960 to 2011, for all quarterbacks with at least 5,000 career passing yards over that time period. The table below lists the following information for each passer:

– His first year (or 1960, if he played before 1960) and his last year (or 2011, if still active)
– All the franchises he played for (which you can search for in the search box)
– His number of career wins, and his touchdown rate, interception rate, yards per attempt and Adjusted Yards per Attempt (which includes a 20-yard bonus for touchdown passes and a 45-yard penalty for interceptions) in wins ^[1]Unfortunately, I excluded sack data from this study due to its general unavailability for most of the covered time period.
– His number of career losses, and his touchdown rate, interception rate, yards per attempt and Adjusted Yards per Attempt in losses

The table is sorted by AY/A in wins; unsurprisingly, Aaron Rodgers — who is the career leader in that metric — tops this table, too. In fact, Rodgers is also the leader in AY/A in losses. Note that this table includes all games played by the quarterback, not just his starts.

Rk	Player	Years	Teams	PYD	Win	TD%_W	INT%_W	Y/A_W	AY/A_W	Loss	TD%_L	INT%_L	Y/A_L	AY/A_L
1	Aaron Rodgers	2005--2011	gnb	19147	49	7.6%	1.3%	8.7	8.3	27	4.3%	2.5%	7.4	6.4
2	Matt Schaub	2004--2011	atl-htx	17936	48	5.3%	1.7%	8.7	8.1	53	3.5%	3.3%	7.2	5.8
3	Tony Romo	2005--2011	dal	21666	60	6.6%	2.1%	8.7	7.9	43	4.3%	3.4%	7	5.5
4	Kurt Warner	1998--2009	ram-nyg-crd	36296	81	6.8%	2.2%	8.7	7.8	57	3.3%	4.4%	7.2	5.3
5	Daunte Culpepper	1999--2009	min-mia-rai-det	25133	45	7.1%	2.2%	8.7	7.8	64	3.3%	4%	6.9	5.1
6	Bob Berry	1965--1975	min-atl	9197	32	7.4%	2.3%	8.6	7.7	36	4.2%	7.4%	7.1	3.8
7	Steve Young	1985--1999	tam-sfo	36450	125	6.8%	1.7%	8.3	7.6	60	2.9%	4.2%	7.2	5.3
8	Philip Rivers	2004--2011	sdg	26105	69	6.2%	2.3%	8.5	7.6	39	4%	3.1%	7.3	6
9	Ben Roethlisberger	2004--2011	pit	29729	90	5.7%	2.2%	8.4	7.6	38	3.7%	4.9%	7.2	5
10	John Friesz	1990--2000	sdg-was-sea-nwe	8699	19	5%	1%	7.8	7.5	38	2.6%	4%	5.8	4
11	Bart Starr	1960--1971	gnb	22810	99	6.6%	2.9%	8.6	7.5	41	2.4%	5.9%	6.7	4.1
12	Don Meredith	1960--1968	dal	17750	51	8.5%	3.3%	8.8	7.5	50	3.5%	6%	6.2	3.6
13	Drew Brees	2001--2011	sdg-nor	43722	97	6.5%	1.7%	8	7.4	66	3.4%	3.7%	6.7	5.1
14	Ken O'Brien	1984--1993	nyj-phi	25598	56	5.8%	1.7%	8	7.4	72	2.1%	3.6%	6.3	4.7
15	J.P. Losman	2004--2011	buf-rai-mia	6271	17	5.8%	1.5%	7.9	7.4	28	2.5%	4.4%	6.1	4.1
16	Trent Green	1997--2008	was-ram-kan-mia	28794	59	5.3%	2.1%	8.2	7.3	63	3.6%	3.8%	7.1	5.5
17	Rob Johnson	1995--2003	jax-buf-tam-was-rai	5947	20	4.8%	1.5%	7.9	7.3	25	2.8%	3.6%	6.7	5.1
18	Chad Pennington	2000--2010	nyj-mia	19241	46	5.1%	1.2%	7.7	7.3	49	3.2%	4.1%	6.6	4.9
19	Boomer Esiason	1984--1997	cin-nyj-crd	38520	89	6.6%	2.4%	8.2	7.3	103	3.3%	4.4%	6.5	4.6
20	Neil Lomax	1981--1988	crd	23156	48	6.4%	2.1%	8.1	7.3	59	3%	3.3%	6.6	5.2
21	David Garrard	2002--2010	jax	16489	45	5.3%	1.4%	7.8	7.3	44	2.7%	3.4%	6.4	4.9
22	Matthew Stafford	2009--2011	det	8220	13	8.1%	1.8%	7.9	7.2	17	3.4%	4.4%	6.3	4.4
23	Joe Montana	1979--1994	sfo-kan	46323	140	6.4%	2.2%	8.1	7.2	60	2.7%	3.4%	6.3	4.9
24	Eddie LeBaron	1960--1963	dal	5331	11	12.5%	5.5%	9.4	7.2	31	4.7%	8.7%	7.1	3.3
25	Peyton Manning	1998--2010	clt	60217	150	6.3%	1.9%	8	7.2	77	3.9%	4.1%	6.9	5.2
26	Ed Brown	1960--1965	chi-pit-clt	7723	35	7.7%	5.8%	9.7	7.2	33	2.9%	8.8%	6.5	2.6
27	Wade Wilson	1981--1998	min-atl-nor-dal-rai	18605	66	6.1%	2.6%	8.3	7.2	63	2.4%	5.3%	6.2	3.9
28	Jay Cutler	2006--2011	den-chi	18637	42	6.6%	2.2%	8.1	7.2	38	2.7%	4.6%	6.5	4.5
29	Josh Freeman	2009--2011	tam	8898	17	5.6%	1.8%	7.9	7.2	24	2.8%	4.6%	6.1	4.1
30	Tom Brady	2000--2011	nwe	45264	140	6.1%	1.6%	7.8	7.2	43	3.6%	4.2%	6.3	4.5
31	Matt Moore	2007--2011	car-mia	5137	17	6.2%	1.8%	7.8	7.1	19	2.8%	5%	6.2	4
32	Chris Chandler	1988--2004	clt-tam-crd-ram-oti-atl-chi	29212	72	5.9%	2.6%	8.2	7.1	105	3.1%	4.4%	6.4	4.4
33	Len Dawson	1960--1975	cle-kan	30112	105	8.7%	3.6%	8.6	7.1	64	3.2%	6.3%	6.6	3.8
34	Joe Flacco	2008--2011	rav	15348	49	4.6%	1.2%	7.6	7.1	24	3%	4.4%	5.9	4
35	Trent Edwards	2007--2010	buf-jax	6019	14	4%	1.6%	7.7	7.1	22	2%	4.3%	5.7	3.8
36	Jeff Garcia	1999--2009	sfo-cle-det-phi-tam	26894	63	5.4%	1.3%	7.5	7.1	68	3.4%	3.1%	6.4	5.1
37	Ken Anderson	1971--1986	cin	34159	100	6.2%	2.4%	8	7.1	92	2.7%	4.7%	6.7	4.7
38	Rudy Bukich	1960--1968	pit-chi	7865	30	7.5%	3.5%	8.5	7	35	3.5%	8.6%	6	2.3
39	Troy Aikman	1989--2000	dal	36791	105	4.8%	2.1%	7.9	7	76	2.1%	4.1%	6	4.2
40	Damon Huard	1998--2008	mia-nwe-kan	6349	20	4.9%	1.1%	7.4	7	24	2%	4.3%	5.8	4
41	Jim Everett	1986--1997	ram-nor-sdg	35957	66	5.7%	2.6%	8.1	7	97	3.2%	4.2%	6.5	4.6
42	Roger Staubach	1969--1979	dal	25491	106	6.1%	2.5%	8	7	44	3.5%	6.3%	6.7	3.9
43	Bert Jones	1973--1982	clt-ram	18589	47	6.4%	3.1%	8.2	7	58	3.6%	4.6%	6.3	4.3
44	Frank Reich	1985--1998	buf-car-nyj-det	6858	39	8.8%	2.1%	7.7	7	39	3.3%	4.3%	6.3	4.4
45	Jeff Hostetler	1986--1997	nyg-rai-was	17464	70	5.5%	1.9%	7.7	7	40	2.3%	4.1%	6.3	4.5
46	Dan Fouts	1973--1987	sdg	45165	91	5.9%	3.2%	8.3	6.9	95	3.1%	5.5%	7.1	4.7
47	Bill Kenney	1980--1988	kan	17374	37	5.9%	2.5%	8	6.9	49	3.2%	4.2%	6.5	4.6
48	Y.A. Tittle	1960--1964	sfo-nyg	11542	40	8.9%	4.3%	8.7	6.9	23	2.5%	6.9%	5.7	2.7
49	Mark Brunell	1994--2011	gnb-jax-was-nor-nyj	33905	99	4.8%	1.8%	7.6	6.9	91	3.2%	2.9%	6.2	4.9
50	Aaron Brooks	2000--2006	nor-rai	20822	41	5.8%	1.6%	7.5	6.9	54	3.3%	4.1%	6.4	4.7
51	Patrick Ramsey	2002--2008	was-nyj-den	5929	16	5.2%	2.3%	7.8	6.9	24	3.1%	3.8%	5.8	4.2
52	Scott Mitchell	1992--2001	mia-det-rav-cin	15925	40	6%	2.1%	7.7	6.9	45	2.6%	4.6%	5.9	3.9
53	Randy Wright	1984--1988	gnb	7106	12	5.4%	3.4%	8.3	6.9	33	2.2%	5.5%	5.9	3.5
54	Rich Gannon	1987--2004	min-was-kan-rai	30434	91	5.5%	1.5%	7.4	6.9	71	3%	3.6%	6.2	4.6
55	Earl Morrall	1960--1976	det-nyg-clt-mia	17529	92	7.9%	4.8%	8.9	6.9	44	4.2%	6.9%	6.6	3.6
56	Sonny Jurgensen	1960--1974	phi-was	31546	74	7.7%	3.9%	8.4	6.9	79	4.5%	4.9%	6.8	4.7
57	Steve DeBerg	1978--1998	sfo-den-tam-kan-mia-atl	34752	72	5.4%	2.3%	7.8	6.9	114	3.2%	4.9%	6.4	4.2
58	Steve Beuerlein	1988--2003	rai-dal-crd-jax-car-den	24317	64	5.6%	2.3%	7.8	6.8	66	3.4%	4.2%	6.8	5
59	Fran Tarkenton	1961--1978	min-nyg	48806	131	6.8%	2.8%	8	6.8	117	3.6%	5.5%	6.5	4.1
60	John Brodie	1960--1973	sfo	30783	78	6.7%	3.3%	8.2	6.8	79	3.3%	6%	6.1	3.5
61	Doug Flutie	1986--2005	chi-nwe-buf-sdg	15209	48	5.2%	2.4%	7.8	6.8	45	2.9%	3.9%	6	4.3
62	Johnny Unitas	1960--1973	clt-sdg	32335	107	6.3%	3.8%	8.4	6.8	59	2.7%	7.3%	6.5	3.2
63	Joe Namath	1965--1977	nyj-ram	28299	68	6.4%	4%	8.5	6.8	71	3.3%	6.8%	6.5	3.5
64	Matt Ryan	2008--2011	atl	14832	43	6.1%	1.9%	7.5	6.8	22	2.4%	3%	6.1	4.8
65	Craig Erickson	1992--1997	tam-clt-mia	7625	18	4.8%	2.7%	7.9	6.8	34	3.2%	3.9%	6.5	4.8
66	Marc Bulger	2002--2009	ram	23758	42	4.9%	2.6%	7.8	6.8	57	3.1%	3.3%	6.8	5.4
67	Matt Cassel	2005--2011	nwe-kan	11769	42	5.1%	2%	7.6	6.8	30	3.5%	3.3%	5.7	4.3
68	Tom Flores	1960--1969	rai-buf-kan	11960	40	8.3%	3.8%	8.3	6.8	44	2.8%	6.7%	5.7	2.8
69	Phil Simms	1979--1993	nyg	35141	102	5.3%	2.5%	7.7	6.7	72	3%	4.3%	6.4	4.6
70	Derek Anderson	2006--2011	cle-crd-car	9148	21	5.5%	2.4%	7.7	6.7	32	2.7%	4.6%	5.7	3.6
71	Michael Vick	2001--2011	atl-phi	18889	65	5.8%	2.4%	7.7	6.7	51	2.8%	3.4%	6.3	4.9
72	Brett Favre	1991--2010	atl-gnb-nyj-min	77693	201	6.3%	2.2%	7.6	6.7	125	3.2%	4.9%	6.4	4.3
73	Craig Morton	1965--1982	dal-nyg-den	29143	118	6.7%	3.7%	8.2	6.7	82	2.6%	6.5%	6.2	3.4
74	Steve Pelluer	1985--1990	dal-kan	6870	17	3.3%	2.2%	7.6	6.7	26	2.9%	4.7%	6.9	4.8
75	Dan Marino	1983--1999	mia	65871	155	5.7%	2.4%	7.7	6.7	105	4.1%	3.9%	6.8	5.1
76	Donovan McNabb	1999--2011	phi-was-min	40859	106	5.4%	2%	7.4	6.7	74	2.9%	2.6%	6.1	5
77	Dave Krieg	1980--1998	sea-kan-det-crd-chi-oti	40042	113	6.7%	3%	7.9	6.7	98	3%	4.4%	6.5	4.5
78	Warren Moon	1984--2000	oti-min-sea-kan	52195	108	5.5%	2.6%	7.7	6.6	110	3.1%	4.2%	6.8	4.9
79	Jim Kelly	1986--1996	buf	39330	110	6.1%	3.2%	8	6.6	67	3.1%	4.6%	6.6	4.6
80	John Hadl	1962--1977	sdg-ram-gnb-oti	33941	103	7%	3.7%	8.2	6.6	92	3.3%	7.8%	6.1	2.7
81	Bernie Kosar	1985--1996	cle-dal-mia	25254	67	4.8%	1.9%	7.4	6.6	66	3.1%	3.4%	6.6	5.1
82	Jake Delhomme	1999--2011	nor-car-cle-htx	22822	65	5.5%	2.9%	7.8	6.6	45	3.1%	4.2%	6.6	4.8
83	Vince Evans	1977--1995	chi-rai	9511	37	7.1%	3.8%	8.2	6.6	57	2.4%	6%	6.3	3.6
84	John Elway	1983--1998	den	56439	163	5%	2.6%	7.7	6.6	92	2.8%	3.9%	6.3	4.6
85	Drew Bledsoe	1993--2006	nwe-buf-dal	45946	102	5.1%	1.9%	7.4	6.6	99	2.4%	4.2%	5.9	4
86	Jason Campbell	2006--2011	was-rai	14417	32	3.8%	1.7%	7.3	6.6	39	3.3%	2.7%	6.4	5.3
87	Pete Liske	1964--1972	nyj-den-phi	5170	16	7%	2.6%	7.6	6.6	23	2.2%	8.2%	5.9	2.3
88	Jeff George	1990--2001	clt-atl-rai-min-was	28603	48	5.5%	2.7%	7.7	6.6	85	3.2%	2.9%	6.6	5.4
89	Alex Smith	2005--2011	sfo	13038	33	4.4%	1.1%	7	6.6	39	2.9%	4.3%	6	4.1
90	Jim Zorn	1976--1987	sea-gnb-tam	21249	52	4.9%	2.9%	7.8	6.6	68	2.8%	5.4%	6.1	3.7
91	Lynn Dickey	1971--1985	oti-gnb	23914	52	6.5%	4.4%	8.4	6.6	76	3.5%	6.6%	7	4.1
92	Jon Kitna	1997--2011	sea-cin-det-dal	30104	56	5.7%	2%	7.4	6.6	86	2.8%	4.7%	6.3	4.3
93	Eric Hipple	1981--1989	det	11009	30	6.3%	3%	7.8	6.6	36	1.8%	5.5%	6.4	4
94	Bob Griese	1967--1980	mia	26559	108	7.4%	3.9%	8.1	6.5	62	3.5%	6.4%	6.4	3.5
95	Chris Miller	1987--1999	atl-ram-den	19789	37	5.7%	2.4%	7.5	6.5	63	3.6%	4.2%	6.3	4.5
96	Gus Frerotte	1994--2008	was-det-den-cin-min-mia-ram	21666	58	5.1%	2.7%	7.6	6.5	60	2.5%	4.1%	6.2	4.4
97	Matt Hasselbeck	1999--2011	gnb-sea-oti	35891	91	5.1%	2.4%	7.5	6.5	80	3%	3.4%	6.3	4.8
98	Tarvaris Jackson	2006--2011	min-sea	7239	27	4.5%	3.1%	7.8	6.5	23	2.8%	3.4%	5.8	4.3
99	Jeff Blake	1992--2005	nyj-cin-nor-rav-crd-phi-chi	21711	42	5.1%	2.1%	7.4	6.5	77	3.6%	3.6%	6.3	4.7
100	Tony Eason	1983--1990	nwe-nyj	11703	35	5.1%	2.8%	7.7	6.5	31	3.3%	3.4%	6.7	5.2
101	Jim Harbaugh	1987--2000	chi-clt-rav-sdg	27194	78	4.8%	2.1%	7.3	6.5	93	2.3%	3.6%	6.2	4.6
102	Don Majkowski	1987--1996	gnb-clt-det	12906	34	4.8%	2.8%	7.7	6.5	43	2.6%	4.2%	6	4.2
103	Gary Hogeboom	1982--1989	dal-clt-crd	9598	31	5.1%	2.6%	7.5	6.5	28	2.7%	6.1%	6.7	4
104	Joe Theismann	1974--1985	was	26988	95	6%	2.8%	7.6	6.5	59	2.4%	5.1%	6.3	4.1
105	Randall Cunningham	1985--2001	phi-min-dal-rav	32405	98	6.1%	2.6%	7.6	6.5	73	3.1%	3.6%	6.3	4.7
106	Byron Leftwich	2003--2010	jax-atl-pit-tam	10439	30	5%	1.6%	7.1	6.5	31	2.6%	3.5%	6.2	4.7
107	Tony Banks	1996--2005	ram-rav-was-htx	15315	43	5.2%	2.2%	7.4	6.5	52	2%	3.7%	5.9	4.3
108	Bobby Hebert	1985--1996	nor-atl	22331	63	5.2%	3%	7.7	6.5	55	3.5%	5%	6.2	4.1
109	Greg Landry	1968--1984	det-clt-chi	16100	55	6.7%	3.9%	8.1	6.5	65	2.5%	4.7%	6.3	4.2
110	Eli Manning	2004--2011	nyg	30095	77	5.5%	2.2%	7.3	6.4	54	3.7%	4.5%	6.7	4.7
111	Jay Fiedler	1998--2005	min-jax-mia-nyj	12499	50	5%	2.6%	7.5	6.4	29	2.5%	5.9%	6	3.4
112	Stan Humphries	1989--1997	was-sdg	18538	55	4.4%	2.3%	7.4	6.4	39	2.2%	5.1%	5.9	3.7
113	Jim Plunkett	1971--1986	nwe-sfo-rai	28175	85	5.6%	3.4%	7.9	6.4	82	3.2%	7.1%	6.4	3.2
114	Elvis Grbac	1994--2001	sfo-kan-rav	17492	61	4.8%	2.4%	7.4	6.4	39	3.1%	4.4%	6.2	4.3
115	Richard Todd	1976--1985	nyj-nor	21636	51	5.2%	3.6%	7.9	6.4	70	3.2%	7%	6.2	3.1
116	Steve Grogan	1975--1990	nwe	27457	80	6.7%	4.3%	8.2	6.4	71	3.5%	7.2%	6.8	3.6
117	Frank Ryan	1960--1970	ram-cle-was	15833	66	9.3%	4.4%	8.2	6.4	42	4%	6.1%	6.6	3.9
118	Carson Palmer	2004--2011	cin-rai	25659	50	5.9%	2.9%	7.6	6.4	59	3.8%	3.5%	6.9	5.3
119	Shaun Hill	2005--2011	min-sfo-det	6209	18	5.5%	1.8%	7.1	6.4	16	3.2%	2.8%	6.3	5.1
120	Mark Rypien	1988--2001	was-cle-ram-phi-clt	20249	58	5.7%	3.3%	7.7	6.4	47	2.9%	3.6%	6.5	4.9
121	Bubby Brister	1986--2000	pit-phi-nyj-den-min	14801	47	5.7%	2.3%	7.3	6.4	51	1.9%	4.3%	5.9	3.9
122	Kerry Collins	1995--2011	car-nor-nyg-rai-oti-clt	42478	92	4.4%	2.1%	7.2	6.4	113	2.7%	4%	6.1	4.3
123	Steve McNair	1995--2007	oti-rav	33068	100	4.6%	2.1%	7.2	6.4	72	2.6%	3.4%	6.4	4.9
124	Charlie Batch	1998--2011	det-pit	10610	40	5.2%	2.8%	7.5	6.3	37	3.1%	3.4%	6.6	5.1
125	Bill Nelsen	1963--1972	pit-cle	15004	46	6.5%	4.1%	8	6.3	43	3%	7.2%	6.5	3.4
126	Charley Johnson	1961--1975	crd-oti-den	24410	68	7.3%	4.7%	8.3	6.3	70	3%	5.9%	6.3	3.6
127	Steve Bartkowski	1975--1986	atl-ram	24916	60	5.9%	3.1%	7.6	6.3	73	3.5%	5.2%	6.5	4.3
128	Sam Bradford	2010--2011	ram	5676	8	4.1%	1.5%	6.9	6.3	18	1.9%	2.5%	5.6	4.5
129	Gary Danielson	1977--1988	det-cle	14000	42	4.9%	2.9%	7.5	6.3	43	3.5%	5.3%	6.7	4.4
130	Brian Sipe	1974--1983	cle	23896	60	6%	3.2%	7.6	6.3	62	3%	5.4%	6.2	3.8
131	Jay Schroeder	1985--1994	was-rai-cin-crd	20854	71	5.2%	2.7%	7.4	6.3	50	2.7%	5.3%	6.6	4.3
132	Virgil Carter	1968--1976	chi-cin-sdg	5127	21	5.7%	3%	7.5	6.3	24	2.1%	4.7%	5.6	3.5
133	Tommy Kramer	1977--1990	min-nor	25651	64	5.9%	2.8%	7.4	6.3	66	2.9%	5.7%	6.2	3.7
134	Brad Johnson	1994--2008	min-was-tam-dal	30457	102	4.6%	2.1%	7.1	6.2	70	2.9%	3.9%	6.2	4.5
135	Kelly Holcomb	1995--2007	tam-clt-cle-buf-min	6453	9	5.5%	3.4%	7.7	6.2	29	4%	4.5%	6.5	4.6
136	Quincy Carter	2001--2004	dal-nyj	6491	20	4.7%	2.2%	7.1	6.2	18	1.8%	5.3%	5.9	3.5
137	Ryan Fitzpatrick	2005--2011	ram-cin-buf	10936	22	6.2%	2.4%	7.2	6.2	34	2.9%	4.5%	5.9	3.9
138	Neil O'Donnell	1991--2003	pit-nyj-cin-oti	23399	72	5%	2%	7	6.2	58	2.5%	2.3%	6.3	5.4
139	James Harris	1969--1979	buf-ram-sdg	8479	44	5.8%	4.2%	8	6.2	34	1.8%	6.6%	6	3.1
140	Brian Griese	1998--2008	den-mia-tam-chi	19440	53	5.2%	2.8%	7.4	6.2	40	3.3%	4.2%	6.6	4.7
141	Terry Bradshaw	1970--1983	pit	31822	125	7%	4.3%	8	6.2	62	3%	7.3%	6.1	2.9
142	Bill Munson	1964--1979	ram-det-sea-sdg-buf	12940	41	6.4%	2.6%	7.2	6.2	58	2.8%	5%	6.1	3.9
143	Steve Tensi	1966--1970	sdg-den	5558	15	8.5%	4.4%	8	6.1	29	3.5%	5.7%	5.8	3.3
144	Jeff Kemp	1981--1991	ram-sfo-sea-phi	6403	28	6.7%	2.9%	7.3	6.1	26	1.9%	5.5%	6.3	3.8
145	Ty Detmer	1993--2001	gnb-phi-sfo-cle-det	6499	18	4.9%	2.5%	7.1	6.1	24	2.7%	4.6%	6.5	4.4
146	Billy Wade	1960--1966	ram-chi	11390	34	6.1%	3.5%	7.6	6.1	33	3.8%	6.3%	6.4	3.7
147	Dave M. Brown	1992--2000	nyg-crd	10304	29	4.1%	2.5%	7.2	6.1	42	1.9%	4.2%	5.8	4
148	Mark Sanchez	2009--2011	nyj	10364	30	5.1%	2%	6.9	6.1	22	2.9%	5%	6.2	4
149	Joe Ferguson	1973--1990	buf-det-tam-clt	30631	83	6.4%	3.1%	7.4	6.1	107	3%	5.8%	6.1	3.5
150	Norm Snead	1961--1976	was-phi-min-nyg-sfo	30797	57	6.9%	4.3%	7.9	6.1	114	3.5%	6.7%	6.7	3.7
151	Dennis Shaw	1970--1975	buf-crd	6347	12	5.9%	5.3%	8.4	6.1	34	2.8%	8.1%	6.5	2.9
152	Vince Ferragamo	1977--1986	ram-buf-gnb	12564	35	7.1%	3.7%	7.6	6.1	42	2.9%	7.1%	6.5	3.4
153	Jake Plummer	1997--2006	crd-den	30593	74	4.7%	2.5%	7.1	6.1	75	2.9%	4.8%	6.4	4.3
154	Tommy Maddox	1992--2005	den-ram-nyg-pit	8754	27	5.9%	3.2%	7.4	6.1	28	2.6%	5.3%	6.1	3.7
155	Daryle Lamonica	1963--1974	buf-rai	21082	104	7.8%	4.6%	8	6.1	37	3%	7.3%	6	2.8
156	Kyle Orton	2005--2011	chi-den-kan	14532	36	4.5%	1.9%	6.8	6.1	35	3%	3.1%	6.4	5
157	Roman Gabriel	1962--1977	ram-phi	29780	87	5.7%	2.6%	7.1	6.1	79	3.2%	4%	5.8	4.1
158	Bob Lee	1969--1980	min-atl-ram	5416	60	5.9%	4.8%	8.1	6.1	24	1.2%	6.2%	5	2.3
159	David Carr	2002--2010	htx-car-nyg-sfo	14433	32	3.4%	2.2%	7	6.1	61	2.7%	3.4%	6.2	4.7
160	Jack Trudeau	1986--1995	clt-nyj-car	10494	25	3.2%	2.4%	7.1	6	43	2.3%	5.2%	5.8	3.5
161	Steve Fuller	1979--1986	kan-chi	7454	33	4%	3.5%	7.5	6	29	1.9%	4%	6.2	4.5
162	Danny White	1976--1988	dal	24243	124	5.8%	4%	7.7	6	59	4%	5.3%	6.7	4.4
163	Archie Manning	1971--1984	nor-oti-min	23911	37	4.4%	3.2%	7.4	6	110	3.1%	5.1%	6.3	4.1
164	Ken Stabler	1970--1984	rai-oti-nor	30579	110	6.6%	4.6%	7.9	6	64	3%	7.3%	6.5	3.3
165	Doug Williams	1978--1989	tam-was	18108	49	5.4%	2.8%	7.2	6	45	3.1%	4.8%	6.5	4.4
166	Joe Pisarcik	1977--1984	nyg-phi	5552	25	4.6%	4.1%	7.8	6	32	2.1%	5.7%	5.7	3.1
167	Jim McMahon	1982--1996	chi-sdg-phi-min-crd-gnb	19260	86	4.5%	3.3%	7.4	6	40	2.6%	3.8%	6.4	4.8
168	Milt Plum	1960--1969	cle-det-ram-nyg	13335	46	6.9%	4.9%	8.1	6	40	3.1%	6%	6.3	3.7
169	Ron Jaworski	1974--1989	ram-phi-mia-kan	29859	89	5.4%	2.9%	7.2	6	79	3.4%	4.8%	6.5	4.4
170	Rodney Peete	1989--2004	det-dal-phi-was-car	16636	55	4.3%	3.4%	7.5	6	48	2.2%	4.3%	6.5	4.6
171	Vinny Testaverde	1987--2007	tam-cle-rav-nyj-dal-nwe-car	47553	102	5.3%	3.1%	7.3	6	137	3.3%	4.5%	6.7	4.7
172	Billy Kilmer	1961--1978	sfo-nor-was	21555	88	6.7%	3.7%	7.5	6	81	3.3%	5.9%	6.1	3.5
173	Tim Couch	1999--2003	cle	11131	22	5.5%	3.2%	7.3	6	40	2.7%	4.3%	6	4.1
174	Erik Kramer	1987--1999	atl-det-chi-sdg	16336	38	4.9%	2.4%	7	6	48	3.4%	4.1%	6.5	4.7
175	Trent Dilfer	1994--2007	tam-rav-sea-cle-sfo	21489	68	5.3%	2.7%	7.1	6	65	2%	5.1%	6	3.7
176	Mike Pagel	1982--1993	clt-cle-ram	9593	22	4.5%	2.6%	7.1	6	53	2.9%	4.9%	6	3.8
177	Kordell Stewart	1995--2005	pit-chi-rav	15490	76	3.5%	2.1%	6.8	5.9	54	2.7%	5.6%	5.5	3
178	Chad Henne	2008--2011	mia	7114	14	3.6%	1.7%	6.6	5.9	20	2.4%	4.6%	6.7	4.7
179	Jim Hart	1966--1984	crd-was	35156	93	5.7%	4%	7.6	5.9	103	2.9%	5.5%	6.2	3.8
180	Vince Young	2006--2011	oti-phi	9102	35	4.5%	3%	7.1	5.9	27	2.2%	4.9%	6.5	4.3
181	Josh McCown	2002--2011	crd-det-rai-car-chi	6998	15	4.2%	1.6%	6.5	5.9	36	2.9%	5.2%	6.2	3.9
182	Mark Malone	1981--1989	pit-sdg-nyj	10733	29	6.3%	3%	7.1	5.8	44	2.3%	5.9%	5.8	3.2
183	Babe Parilli	1960--1969	rai-nwe-nyj	18778	64	7.1%	4.1%	7.5	5.8	47	3.2%	7.5%	5.9	2.5
184	Don Strock	1974--1988	mia-cle	5913	37	7.1%	3.6%	7.3	5.8	30	4.5%	7.3%	6.6	3.3
185	Dick Wood	1962--1966	sdg-nyj-rai-mia	7153	17	7.1%	3.4%	7.2	5.8	28	2.6%	7.3%	5.3	2.1
186	Shaun King	1999--2004	tam-crd	5057	19	5.9%	2.3%	6.7	5.8	16	1.1%	4.1%	5.5	3.7
187	Pat Haden	1976--1981	ram	10024	41	4.4%	2.9%	7	5.8	26	3.1%	7.1%	6.4	3.3
188	Bobby Douglass	1969--1978	chi-sdg-nor-gnb	6493	16	6.2%	3.5%	7.2	5.8	57	2.1%	5.8%	5.1	2.5
189	Cotton Davidson	1960--1968	kan-rai	11451	30	6.5%	4.1%	7.5	5.7	40	2.9%	7.2%	6.3	3.1
190	Steve Bono	1985--1999	min-pit-sfo-kan-gnb-ram-car	10576	49	4.6%	1.8%	6.4	5.7	26	2.5%	3.7%	5.7	4.1
191	Marc Wilson	1980--1990	rai-nwe	14526	39	5.8%	4%	7.4	5.7	42	2.8%	5.8%	6.5	3.9
192	Billy Joe Tolliver	1989--1999	sdg-atl-oti-kan-nor	10760	24	5%	2.6%	6.8	5.7	53	3%	4.1%	6.1	4.4
193	Rick Mirer	1993--2003	sea-chi-nyj-sfo-rai	11969	27	3.9%	2.4%	6.6	5.6	52	1.8%	4.4%	5.5	3.5
194	Steve Ramsey	1970--1976	nor-den	6437	23	5.4%	5.9%	8.1	5.6	28	2.4%	6.5%	6.3	3.4
195	Jacky Lee	1960--1969	oti-den-kan	6191	30	9%	7%	8.5	5.5	29	4%	6.9%	6.6	3.6
196	Hugh Millen	1987--1995	ram-atl-nwe-den	6440	8	2.3%	4.2%	7.4	5.5	30	2.4%	3.6%	6.8	5.2
197	Jim Ninowski	1960--1969	det-cle-was-nor	6953	33	4.3%	4.5%	7.5	5.5	27	2.6%	7.4%	6.2	2.9
198	Dave Wilson	1981--1988	nor	7007	16	4.2%	5.2%	7.8	5.5	37	3.1%	5.5%	6.2	3.8
199	Kyle Boller	2003--2011	rav-ram-rai	8931	30	4.1%	1.7%	6.2	5.5	36	2.6%	4.7%	5.7	3.6
200	Joey Harrington	2002--2007	det-mia-atl	14693	27	4.4%	2.2%	6.4	5.5	55	2.5%	3.8%	5.5	3.9
201	Todd Blackledge	1983--1989	kan-pit	5366	22	5.2%	3.4%	6.9	5.5	22	1.7%	5.2%	5.3	2.9
202	Mike Tomczak	1985--1999	chi-gnb-cle-pit	16963	79	3.8%	3.9%	7.1	5.5	59	3.4%	5.3%	6.6	4.2
203	Mike Livingston	1968--1979	kan	11295	37	4.4%	3.2%	6.8	5.5	52	2.4%	5.7%	6.2	3.7
204	Danny Kanell	1996--2003	nyg-atl-den	5328	14	5.3%	2.5%	6.5	5.5	25	2.2%	4%	4.9	3.2
205	Steve Dils	1980--1988	min-ram-atl	5816	18	3.5%	2.6%	6.5	5.4	29	2.4%	3.6%	5.7	4.1
206	Jack Thompson	1979--1984	cin-tam	5329	15	5.3%	1.8%	6.1	5.4	30	3.5%	6.2%	6.3	3.6
207	Kent Graham	1992--2001	nyg-crd-pit-was	7801	27	4.4%	1.6%	6	5.4	33	1.8%	3.1%	5.7	4.3
208	David Woodley	1980--1985	mia-pit	9203	38	4.4%	3.5%	6.9	5.4	24	3%	7.4%	6.3	3.1
209	Randy Johnson	1966--1976	atl-nyg-was-gnb	8329	14	7.8%	4.4%	7.2	5.4	58	3.2%	7.6%	6.3	3
210	Rex Grossman	2003--2011	chi-htx-was	11015	30	4.7%	3.3%	6.8	5.4	27	2.3%	4.3%	6.2	4.3
211	Jim Miller	1995--2002	pit-chi	6410	20	3.9%	2.9%	6.6	5.3	18	3%	3.2%	5.6	4.3
212	Dan Pastorini	1971--1983	oti-rai-ram-phi	19469	62	4.6%	4.2%	7.1	5.3	81	2.5%	6.1%	5.4	2.7
213	Paul McDonald	1980--1984	cle	5550	12	3.8%	3.4%	6.8	5.3	23	2.8%	5.1%	7	4.7
214	George Blanda	1960--1975	oti-rai	22029	142	8.4%	6%	7.8	5.3	79	3.9%	8%	6.1	2.5
215	Jack Kemp	1960--1969	sdg-buf	22256	71	4.6%	5.2%	7.5	5.2	46	2.2%	7.1%	6.2	3
216	David Whitehurst	1977--1983	gnb	6205	21	6.1%	5.3%	7.4	5.1	30	1.1%	5.4%	5.7	3.3
217	Zeke Bratkowski	1960--1971	chi-ram-gnb	8005	30	4.7%	5.5%	7.5	5.1	45	3.5%	8.9%	6.6	2.7
218	Steve Spurrier	1967--1976	sfo-tam	6878	48	6.4%	4.9%	7.1	5.1	53	2.2%	5.2%	5.4	3.1
219	Joe Kapp	1967--1970	min-nwe	6746	26	6.6%	6.2%	7.7	5.1	26	2.2%	8.1%	5.7	2.1
220	Bob Avellini	1975--1984	chi	7288	30	4.2%	5.9%	7.5	5	36	2.3%	6.8%	5.7	2.7
221	Frank Tripucka	1960--1963	den	7676	13	5.1%	5.9%	7.5	5	29	3.3%	6.7%	5.2	2.3
222	Pete Beathard	1964--1973	kan-oti-crd-ram	8544	40	4.5%	5.3%	7.2	4.9	34	2.5%	7.3%	5.6	2.4
223	Gary Cuozzo	1963--1972	clt-nor-min-crd	7688	47	4.6%	3.9%	6.5	4.9	35	2.9%	5.7%	6	3.5
224	Al Dorow	1960--1962	nyj-buf	5732	14	5.7%	5%	6.9	4.8	18	4.7%	8.5%	5.8	2.1
225	Steve Walsh	1989--1999	dal-nor-chi-ram-tam-clt	8248	27	3.9%	3.2%	6.2	4.8	34	2.4%	4.5%	5.9	3.9
226	Mike Phipps	1970--1981	cle-chi	10806	50	4.5%	3.7%	6.4	4.8	51	1.7%	8.4%	5.3	1.6
227	Scott Brunner	1980--1985	nyg-crd	6843	16	3.7%	3.7%	6.3	4.7	29	3%	5.8%	6.2	3.6
228	Jack Concannon	1964--1975	phi-chi-gnb-det	6270	27	4.6%	4.3%	6.5	4.6	32	2.5%	6.8%	5.1	2.1
229	Mike Taliaferro	1964--1972	nyj-nwe-buf	5241	19	8.2%	4.7%	6.3	4.4	41	2.2%	7.2%	5.1	1.9

[continue reading…]

References[+]

References
↑1	Unfortunately, I excluded sack data from this study due to its general unavailability for most of the covered time period.

Tagged as: Aaron Rodgers, Dan Marino, Joe Montana, Peyton Manning, quarterbacks, Tom Brady

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Data Dump: Schedule-Adjusted Pythagorean Ratings (1970-2012)

by Neil Paine on January 4, 2013

in Data Dump, History, SRS, Statgeekery

This is mostly a huge end-of-regular-season data dump, but I’ll explain a little before the table…

PFR’s Simple Rating System can be broken into offensive and defensive components, which represent the number of points per game the team scored/allowed per game compared to the league average, after adjusting for the strength of opposing offenses and defenses faced. If you want to derive an expected winning percentage from that, you have to “back out” to total points scored/allowed again. To do that, you just add OSRS (or subtract DSRS) to the league’s average PPG, then multiply by the number of games the team played. This will give you adjusted points scored/allowed totals for the season.

To get that into a winning percentage-like form, you then need to plug those totals into the Pythagorean Formula. It usually takes the form of

(Pts Scored ^ x) / (Pts Scored ^ x + Pts Allowed ^ x)

where x was determined to be around 2.4 for the NFL in the 1990s, when current Houston Rockets (yep, basketball) GM Daryl Morey researched it for STATS, Inc. Last year, Football Outsiders decided to employ a “floating” exponent that varies with the scoring environment in which a team played, recognizing that a single point is more important to winning in lower-scoring environments. To that end, they used what’s known as the “Pythagenport” method of determining the exponent, which is

1.5 * log10((PF + PA) / G)

I was poking around in the data the other day, though, and found that the so-called “Pythagenpat” variant actually correlates slightly better with teams’ actual won-lost records since the NFL-AFL merger. That formula suggests for each team an exponent of

((PF + PA) / G) ^ 0.2466

This gives you a 1.204 RMSE vs. wins since 1970, a very slight improvement over the 1.205 RMSE you get using FO’s formula.

At any rate, I applied the Pythagenpat exponent to each team’s schedule-adjusted points scored/allowed totals since 1970, and tweaked the pythagorean win/loss totals up/down at the league-season level to match actual league-wide win/loss totals. The result was a definitive set of pythagorean ratings for every team since the merger:

Year	Tm	pfr_id	Division	G	W	L	T	WPct	Pts	PtsO	OSRS	DSRS	adj_PF	adj_PA	adj_Pyth
2012	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	344	435	-0.9	-5.8	349.84	456.84	0.3331
2012	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	7	9	0	0.438	288	317	-5.5	2.9	276.24	317.64	0.4174
2012	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	12	4	0	0.750	557	331	12.2	0.5	559.44	356.04	0.7747
2012	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	281	375	-5.1	-0.9	282.64	378.44	0.3267
2012	Baltimore Ravens	rav	AFC North	16	10	6	0	0.625	398	344	1.9	1.0	394.64	348.04	0.5819
2012	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC North	16	10	6	0	0.625	391	320	1.2	0.9	383.44	349.64	0.5606
2012	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC North	16	5	11	0	0.313	302	368	-4.6	-0.7	290.64	375.24	0.3467
2012	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC North	16	8	8	0	0.500	336	314	-2.8	2.1	319.44	330.44	0.4806
2012	Houston Texans	htx	AFC South	16	12	4	0	0.750	416	331	1.8	1.7	393.04	336.84	0.5993
2012	Indianapolis Colts	clt	AFC South	16	11	5	0	0.688	357	387	-1.9	-2.8	333.84	408.84	0.3740
2012	Jacksonville Jaguars	jax	AFC South	16	2	14	0	0.125	255	444	-8.1	-4.9	234.64	442.44	0.1700
2012	Tennessee Titans	oti	AFC South	16	6	10	0	0.375	330	471	-2.6	-7.4	322.64	482.44	0.2595
2012	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	13	3	0	0.813	481	289	6.3	3.8	465.04	303.24	0.7539
2012	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	2	14	0	0.125	211	425	-10.3	-3.7	199.44	423.24	0.1368
2012	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	4	12	0	0.250	290	443	-4.6	-6.2	290.64	463.24	0.2322
2012	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	350	350	-2.0	-0.4	332.24	370.44	0.4329
2012	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	376	400	1.4	-1.2	386.64	383.24	0.5074
2012	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	429	344	4.0	2.2	428.24	328.84	0.6662
2012	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	4	12	0	0.250	280	444	-5.3	-3.6	279.44	421.64	0.2619
2012	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	436	388	4.6	-1.2	437.84	383.24	0.5887
2012	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC North	16	10	6	0	0.625	375	277	1.0	6.0	380.24	268.04	0.7066
2012	Detroit Lions	det	NFC North	16	4	12	0	0.250	372	437	2.1	-4.4	397.84	434.44	0.4436
2012	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC North	16	11	5	0	0.688	433	336	4.9	2.4	442.64	325.64	0.6911
2012	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC North	16	10	6	0	0.625	379	348	1.6	1.8	389.84	335.24	0.5971
2012	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC South	16	13	3	0	0.813	419	299	2.0	4.5	396.24	292.04	0.6855
2012	Carolina Panthers	car	NFC South	16	7	9	0	0.438	357	363	-0.5	1.3	356.24	343.24	0.5252
2012	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC South	16	7	9	0	0.438	461	454	6.5	-5.1	468.24	445.64	0.5351
2012	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC South	16	7	9	0	0.438	389	394	1.3	-1.3	385.04	384.84	0.5020
2012	Arizona Cardinals	crd	NFC West	16	5	11	0	0.313	250	357	-4.8	1.6	287.44	338.44	0.4022
2012	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	11	4	1	0.719	397	273	3.5	6.7	420.24	256.84	0.7772
2012	Seattle Seahawks	sea	NFC West	16	11	5	0	0.688	412	245	4.5	7.7	436.24	240.84	0.8186
2012	St. Louis Rams	ram	NFC West	16	7	8	1	0.469	299	348	-2.1	2.4	330.64	325.64	0.5112
2011	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	372	434	1.2	-4.5	374.03	426.93	0.4200
2011	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	329	313	-2.2	3.2	319.63	303.73	0.5374
2011	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	13	3	0	0.813	513	342	9.4	-0.1	505.23	356.53	0.7234
2011	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	377	363	1.2	-0.3	374.03	359.73	0.5310
2011	Baltimore Ravens	rav	AFC North	16	12	4	0	0.750	378	266	2.6	3.5	396.43	298.93	0.6776
2011	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC North	16	9	7	0	0.563	344	323	0.7	-0.2	366.03	358.13	0.5199
2011	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC North	16	4	12	0	0.250	218	307	-7.2	1.8	239.63	326.13	0.3284
2011	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC North	16	12	4	0	0.750	325	227	-0.8	6.0	342.03	258.93	0.6698
2011	Houston Texans	htx	AFC South	16	10	6	0	0.625	381	278	1.4	3.2	377.23	303.73	0.6393
2011	Indianapolis Colts	clt	AFC South	16	2	14	0	0.125	243	430	-6.0	-5.3	258.83	439.73	0.2127
2011	Jacksonville Jaguars	jax	AFC South	16	5	11	0	0.313	243	329	-7.1	1.4	241.23	332.53	0.3212
2011	Tennessee Titans	oti	AFC South	16	9	7	0	0.563	325	317	-2.2	1.2	319.63	335.73	0.4753
2011	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	309	390	-3.6	-1.7	297.23	382.13	0.3527
2011	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	212	338	-10.2	2.1	191.63	321.33	0.2347
2011	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	359	433	0.2	-5.1	358.03	436.53	0.3790
2011	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	406	377	2.7	-1.8	398.03	383.73	0.5298
2011	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	369	347	0.7	0.9	366.03	340.53	0.5518
2011	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	394	400	3.1	-1.5	404.43	378.93	0.5484
2011	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	396	328	3.1	1.7	404.43	327.73	0.6377
2011	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	5	11	0	0.313	288	367	-4.3	0.2	286.03	351.73	0.3804
2011	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC North	16	8	8	0	0.500	353	341	-1.5	3.1	330.83	305.33	0.5555
2011	Detroit Lions	det	NFC North	16	10	6	0	0.625	474	387	6.9	-0.8	465.23	367.73	0.6569
2011	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC North	16	15	1	0	0.938	560	359	11.5	-0.1	538.83	356.53	0.7589
2011	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC North	16	3	13	0	0.188	340	449	-1.6	-4.1	329.23	420.53	0.3530
2011	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC South	16	10	6	0	0.625	402	350	1.8	1.7	383.63	327.73	0.6050
2011	Carolina Panthers	car	NFC South	16	6	10	0	0.375	406	429	2.6	-3.9	396.43	417.33	0.4722
2011	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC South	16	13	3	0	0.813	547	339	10.6	0.8	524.43	342.13	0.7642
2011	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC South	16	4	12	0	0.250	287	494	-4.0	-6.6	290.83	460.53	0.2397
2011	Arizona Cardinals	crd	NFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	312	348	-1.7	-0.5	327.63	362.93	0.4416
2011	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	13	3	0	0.813	380	229	1.7	6.6	382.03	249.33	0.7479
2011	Seattle Seahawks	sea	NFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	321	315	-0.5	1.3	346.83	334.13	0.5295
2011	St. Louis Rams	ram	NFC West	16	2	14	0	0.125	193	407	-8.4	-2.1	220.43	388.53	0.2053
2010	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	4	12	0	0.250	283	425	-1.5	-3.1	328.74	402.04	0.3740
2010	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	7	9	0	0.438	273	333	-2.8	3.1	307.94	302.84	0.5106
2010	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	14	2	0	0.875	518	313	12.6	2.8	554.34	307.64	0.8287
2010	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	11	5	0	0.688	367	304	2.2	4.2	387.94	285.24	0.6846
2010	Baltimore Ravens	rav	AFC North	16	12	4	0	0.750	357	270	0.9	5.5	367.14	264.44	0.6929
2010	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC North	16	4	12	0	0.250	322	395	0.4	-1.9	359.14	382.84	0.4593
2010	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC North	16	5	11	0	0.313	271	332	-3.4	2.0	298.34	320.44	0.4565
2010	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC North	16	12	4	0	0.750	375	232	2.5	7.7	392.74	229.24	0.7908
2010	Houston Texans	htx	AFC South	16	6	10	0	0.375	390	427	1.8	-3.7	381.54	411.64	0.4508
2010	Indianapolis Colts	clt	AFC South	16	10	6	0	0.625	435	388	3.7	-0.9	411.94	366.84	0.5753
2010	Jacksonville Jaguars	jax	AFC South	16	8	8	0	0.500	353	419	-1.2	-3.3	333.54	405.24	0.3777
2010	Tennessee Titans	oti	AFC South	16	6	10	0	0.375	356	339	-0.9	1.9	338.34	322.04	0.5312
2010	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	4	12	0	0.250	344	471	-1.1	-7.8	335.14	477.24	0.2831
2010	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	366	326	-1.5	0.8	328.74	339.64	0.4799
2010	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	410	371	2.3	-2.2	389.54	387.64	0.5035
2010	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	441	322	3.2	1.6	403.94	326.84	0.6330
2010	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	394	436	2.5	-4.7	392.74	427.64	0.4444
2010	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	394	347	1.7	0.4	379.94	346.04	0.5599
2010	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	439	377	5.4	-1.2	439.14	371.64	0.6085
2010	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	302	377	-3.4	-0.5	298.34	360.44	0.3843
2010	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC North	16	11	5	0	0.688	334	286	-0.6	4.7	343.14	277.24	0.6288
2010	Detroit Lions	det	NFC North	16	6	10	0	0.375	362	369	2.4	-0.5	391.14	360.44	0.5530
2010	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC North	16	10	6	0	0.625	388	240	3.1	7.9	402.34	226.04	0.8065
2010	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC North	16	6	10	0	0.375	281	348	-3.3	1.7	299.94	325.24	0.4505
2010	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC South	16	13	3	0	0.813	414	288	3.8	2.2	413.54	317.24	0.6641
2010	Carolina Panthers	car	NFC South	16	2	14	0	0.125	196	408	-9.1	-4.1	207.14	418.04	0.1505
2010	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC South	16	11	5	0	0.688	384	307	1.5	0.8	376.74	339.64	0.5661
2010	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC South	16	10	6	0	0.625	341	318	-1.0	0.4	336.74	346.04	0.4832
2010	Arizona Cardinals	crd	NFC West	16	5	11	0	0.313	289	434	-5.6	-7.1	263.14	466.04	0.1879
2010	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	6	10	0	0.375	305	346	-4.7	-1.1	277.54	370.04	0.3285
2010	Seattle Seahawks	sea	NFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	310	407	-3.9	-5.5	290.34	440.44	0.2559
2010	St. Louis Rams	ram	NFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	289	328	-6.3	-0.4	251.94	358.84	0.2960
2009	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	258	326	-4.5	2.7	271.47	300.27	0.4395
2009	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	7	9	0	0.438	360	390	2.9	-1.2	389.87	362.67	0.5466
2009	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	427	285	6.7	4.5	450.67	271.47	0.7853
2009	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	348	236	1.1	7.5	361.07	223.47	0.7623
2009	Baltimore Ravens	rav	AFC North	16	9	7	0	0.563	391	261	2.6	4.9	385.07	265.07	0.7173
2009	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC North	16	10	6	0	0.625	305	291	-2.5	3.2	303.47	292.27	0.5230
2009	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC North	16	5	11	0	0.313	245	375	-6.0	-2.4	247.47	381.87	0.2549
2009	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC North	16	9	7	0	0.563	368	324	1.0	0.7	359.47	332.27	0.5497
2009	Houston Texans	htx	AFC South	16	9	7	0	0.563	388	333	2.7	-0.7	386.67	354.67	0.5554
2009	Indianapolis Colts	clt	AFC South	16	14	2	0	0.875	416	307	4.4	1.5	413.87	319.47	0.6604
2009	Jacksonville Jaguars	jax	AFC South	16	7	9	0	0.438	290	380	-3.8	-2.6	282.67	385.07	0.3153
2009	Tennessee Titans	oti	AFC South	16	8	8	0	0.500	354	402	0.9	-3.6	357.87	401.07	0.4268
2009	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	326	324	-1.0	1.3	327.47	322.67	0.5092
2009	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	4	12	0	0.250	294	424	-2.5	-5.9	303.47	437.87	0.2801
2009	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	5	11	0	0.313	197	379	-8.7	-1.6	204.27	369.07	0.1932
2009	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	13	3	0	0.813	454	320	6.4	0.2	445.87	340.27	0.6696
2009	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	11	5	0	0.688	361	250	0.4	6.7	349.87	236.27	0.7220
2009	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	402	427	4.6	-4.5	417.07	415.47	0.5026
2009	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	11	5	0	0.688	429	337	5.8	0.2	436.27	340.27	0.6564
2009	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	4	12	0	0.250	266	336	-5.5	1.0	255.47	327.47	0.3538
2009	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC North	16	7	9	0	0.438	327	375	-1.9	-2.0	313.07	375.47	0.3871
2009	Detroit Lions	det	NFC North	16	2	14	0	0.125	262	494	-5.2	-9.2	260.27	490.67	0.1628
2009	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC North	16	11	5	0	0.688	461	297	6.3	1.1	444.27	325.87	0.6912
2009	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC North	16	12	4	0	0.750	470	312	6.6	0.6	449.07	333.87	0.6844
2009	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC South	16	9	7	0	0.563	363	325	2.7	2.3	386.67	306.67	0.6427
2009	Carolina Panthers	car	NFC South	16	8	8	0	0.500	315	308	-0.6	4.5	333.87	271.47	0.6241
2009	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC South	16	13	3	0	0.813	510	341	11.2	-0.5	522.67	351.47	0.7435
2009	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC South	16	3	13	0	0.188	244	400	-4.6	-1.1	269.87	361.07	0.3273
2009	Arizona Cardinals	crd	NFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	375	325	0.1	-0.4	345.07	349.87	0.4913
2009	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	330	281	-2.9	3.0	297.07	295.47	0.5033
2009	Seattle Seahawks	sea	NFC West	16	5	11	0	0.313	280	390	-5.0	-4.4	263.47	413.87	0.2429
2009	St. Louis Rams	ram	NFC West	16	1	15	0	0.063	175	436	-11.7	-5.8	156.27	436.27	0.0758
2008	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	7	9	0	0.438	336	342	-2.8	-0.6	307.67	362.07	0.3972
2008	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	11	5	0	0.688	345	317	-2.4	1.8	314.07	323.67	0.4794
2008	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	11	5	0	0.688	410	309	2.3	1.6	389.27	326.87	0.6078
2008	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	405	356	2.2	-1.9	387.67	382.87	0.5062
2008	Baltimore Ravens	rav	AFC North	16	11	5	0	0.688	385	244	4.2	5.6	419.67	262.87	0.7631
2008	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC North	16	4	11	1	0.281	204	364	-6.9	-0.1	242.07	354.07	0.2814
2008	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC North	16	4	12	0	0.250	232	350	-5.2	0.6	269.27	342.87	0.3539
2008	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC North	16	12	4	0	0.750	347	223	1.6	8.2	378.07	221.27	0.7854
2008	Houston Texans	htx	AFC South	16	8	8	0	0.500	366	394	2.8	-3.2	397.27	403.67	0.4876
2008	Indianapolis Colts	clt	AFC South	16	12	4	0	0.750	377	298	2.6	3.9	394.07	290.07	0.6823
2008	Jacksonville Jaguars	jax	AFC South	16	5	11	0	0.313	302	367	-2.1	-0.4	318.87	358.87	0.4242
2008	Tennessee Titans	oti	AFC South	16	13	3	0	0.813	375	234	1.5	7.5	376.47	232.47	0.7635
2008	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	370	448	0.7	-6.5	363.67	456.47	0.3524
2008	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	2	14	0	0.125	291	440	-3.9	-5.3	290.07	437.27	0.2569
2008	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	5	11	0	0.313	263	388	-6.5	-1.0	248.47	368.47	0.2730
2008	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	439	347	5.0	0.0	432.47	352.47	0.6285
2008	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	362	365	1.7	-1.2	379.67	371.67	0.5118
2008	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	12	4	0	0.750	427	294	5.5	2.8	440.47	307.67	0.7143
2008	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	9	6	1	0.594	416	289	4.7	3.2	427.67	301.27	0.7087
2008	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	265	296	-5.8	4.1	259.67	286.87	0.4389
2008	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC North	16	9	7	0	0.563	375	350	1.1	1.0	370.07	336.47	0.5583
2008	Detroit Lions	det	NFC North	16	0	16	0	0.000	268	517	-4.0	-9.1	288.47	498.07	0.1916
2008	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC North	16	6	10	0	0.375	419	380	4.1	-1.2	418.07	371.67	0.5744
2008	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC North	16	10	6	0	0.625	379	333	1.1	2.9	370.07	306.07	0.6153
2008	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC South	16	11	5	0	0.688	391	325	1.3	2.5	373.27	312.47	0.6085
2008	Carolina Panthers	car	NFC South	16	12	4	0	0.750	414	329	2.8	2.9	397.27	306.07	0.6580
2008	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC South	16	8	8	0	0.500	463	393	6.8	-2.8	461.27	397.27	0.5965
2008	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC South	16	9	7	0	0.563	361	323	-0.6	2.9	342.87	306.07	0.5683
2008	Arizona Cardinals	crd	NFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	427	426	4.1	-6.0	418.07	448.47	0.4512
2008	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	339	381	-2.9	-2.4	306.07	390.87	0.3478
2008	Seattle Seahawks	sea	NFC West	16	4	12	0	0.250	294	392	-4.9	-2.8	274.07	397.27	0.2804
2008	St. Louis Rams	ram	NFC West	16	2	14	0	0.125	232	465	-8.1	-7.0	222.87	464.47	0.1332
2007	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	7	9	0	0.438	252	354	-5.6	1.5	257.55	322.95	0.3735
2007	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	1	15	0	0.063	267	437	-4.1	-4.2	281.55	414.15	0.2805
2007	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	16	0	0	1.000	589	274	15.9	4.2	601.55	279.75	0.8940
2007	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	4	12	0	0.250	268	355	-4.0	0.3	283.15	342.15	0.3926
2007	Baltimore Ravens	rav	AFC North	16	5	11	0	0.313	275	384	-5.0	-1.8	267.15	375.75	0.3072
2007	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC North	16	7	9	0	0.438	380	385	1.6	-4.0	372.75	410.95	0.4440
2007	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC North	16	10	6	0	0.625	402	382	2.2	-3.3	382.35	399.75	0.4783
2007	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC North	16	10	6	0	0.625	393	269	0.9	4.3	361.55	278.15	0.6646
2007	Houston Texans	htx	AFC South	16	8	8	0	0.500	379	384	2.5	-2.5	387.15	386.95	0.5076
2007	Indianapolis Colts	clt	AFC South	16	13	3	0	0.813	450	262	6.6	5.4	452.75	260.55	0.8110
2007	Jacksonville Jaguars	jax	AFC South	16	11	5	0	0.688	411	304	4.8	2.0	423.95	314.95	0.6897
2007	Tennessee Titans	oti	AFC South	16	10	6	0	0.625	301	297	-2.9	3.6	300.75	289.35	0.5308
2007	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	320	409	-0.2	-3.8	343.95	407.75	0.3991
2007	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	4	12	0	0.250	226	335	-7.4	1.9	228.75	316.55	0.3226
2007	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	4	12	0	0.250	283	398	-3.5	-2.5	291.15	386.95	0.3355
2007	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	11	5	0	0.688	412	284	4.3	4.5	415.95	274.95	0.7476
2007	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	13	3	0	0.813	455	325	7.8	1.7	471.95	319.75	0.7421
2007	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	373	351	2.8	0.4	391.95	340.55	0.5966
2007	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	336	300	0.1	5.1	348.75	265.35	0.6692
2007	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	334	310	0.2	4.3	350.35	278.15	0.6462
2007	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC North	16	7	9	0	0.438	334	348	-0.2	1.4	343.95	324.55	0.5437
2007	Detroit Lions	det	NFC North	16	7	9	0	0.438	346	444	1.4	-5.0	369.55	426.95	0.4138
2007	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC North	16	13	3	0	0.813	435	291	5.7	3.3	438.35	294.15	0.7431
2007	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC North	16	8	8	0	0.500	365	311	1.4	2.4	369.55	308.55	0.6190
2007	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC South	16	4	12	0	0.250	259	414	-5.8	-4.8	254.35	423.75	0.2239
2007	Carolina Panthers	car	NFC South	16	7	9	0	0.438	267	347	-5.7	-0.1	255.95	348.55	0.3268
2007	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC South	16	7	9	0	0.438	379	388	1.9	-4.5	377.55	418.95	0.4396
2007	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC South	16	9	7	0	0.563	334	270	-2.3	3.6	310.35	289.35	0.5500
2007	Arizona Cardinals	crd	NFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	404	399	1.9	-5.9	377.55	441.35	0.4057
2007	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	5	11	0	0.313	219	364	-9.9	-2.0	188.75	378.95	0.1643
2007	Seattle Seahawks	sea	NFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	393	291	0.8	0.9	359.95	332.55	0.5573
2007	St. Louis Rams	ram	NFC West	16	3	13	0	0.188	263	438	-6.5	-6.5	243.15	450.95	0.1803
2006	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	7	9	0	0.438	300	311	-0.2	2.4	327.33	292.08	0.5747
2006	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	260	283	-3.3	4.0	277.73	266.48	0.5296
2006	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	12	4	0	0.750	385	237	4.3	5.9	399.33	236.08	0.7913
2006	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	316	295	0.4	1.7	336.93	303.28	0.5699
2006	Baltimore Ravens	rav	AFC North	16	13	3	0	0.813	353	201	1.5	7.8	354.53	205.68	0.7922
2006	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC North	16	8	8	0	0.500	373	331	4.0	0.0	394.53	330.48	0.6165
2006	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC North	16	4	12	0	0.250	238	356	-4.5	-1.3	258.53	351.28	0.3253
2006	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC North	16	8	8	0	0.500	353	315	3.0	0.4	378.53	324.08	0.6024
2006	Houston Texans	htx	AFC South	16	6	10	0	0.375	267	366	-3.2	-1.3	279.33	351.28	0.3669
2006	Indianapolis Colts	clt	AFC South	16	12	4	0	0.750	427	360	6.9	-1.1	440.93	348.08	0.6548
2006	Jacksonville Jaguars	jax	AFC South	16	8	8	0	0.500	371	274	2.6	4.9	372.13	252.08	0.7284
2006	Tennessee Titans	oti	AFC South	16	8	8	0	0.500	324	400	1.0	-2.3	346.53	367.28	0.4680
2006	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	319	305	-0.8	2.1	317.73	296.88	0.5466
2006	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	331	315	0.4	0.6	336.93	320.88	0.5355
2006	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	2	14	0	0.125	168	332	-10.3	0.7	165.73	319.28	0.1843
2006	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	14	2	0	0.875	492	303	10.0	0.2	490.53	327.28	0.7491
2006	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	425	350	5.0	-1.3	410.53	351.28	0.6047
2006	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	355	362	1.2	-1.1	349.73	348.08	0.5080
2006	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	398	328	3.2	0.2	381.73	327.28	0.6017
2006	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	5	11	0	0.313	307	376	-2.1	-2.0	296.93	362.48	0.3828
2006	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC North	16	13	3	0	0.813	427	255	4.9	3.0	408.93	282.48	0.7233
2006	Detroit Lions	det	NFC North	16	3	13	0	0.188	305	398	-1.8	-4.6	301.73	404.08	0.3273
2006	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC North	16	8	8	0	0.500	301	366	-2.3	-2.1	293.73	364.08	0.3739
2006	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC North	16	6	10	0	0.375	282	327	-3.7	-0.4	271.33	336.88	0.3754
2006	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC South	16	7	9	0	0.438	292	328	-2.8	-0.2	285.73	333.68	0.4106
2006	Carolina Panthers	car	NFC South	16	8	8	0	0.500	270	305	-4.2	1.5	263.33	306.48	0.4145
2006	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC South	16	10	6	0	0.625	413	322	4.9	-0.9	408.93	344.88	0.6134
2006	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC South	16	4	12	0	0.250	211	353	-7.2	-0.8	215.33	343.28	0.2510
2006	Arizona Cardinals	crd	NFC West	16	5	11	0	0.313	314	389	-2.6	-4.3	288.93	399.28	0.3112
2006	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	298	412	-3.5	-5.2	274.53	413.68	0.2668
2006	Seattle Seahawks	sea	NFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	335	341	-1.6	-1.9	304.93	360.88	0.4009
2006	St. Louis Rams	ram	NFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	367	381	0.8	-4.7	343.33	405.68	0.3989
2005	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	5	11	0	0.313	271	367	-4.0	-1.8	265.68	358.63	0.3255
2005	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	318	317	-1.1	0.3	312.08	325.03	0.4774
2005	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	379	338	3.7	-0.5	388.88	337.83	0.5918
2005	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	4	12	0	0.250	240	355	-5.2	-1.2	246.48	349.03	0.3023
2005	Baltimore Ravens	rav	AFC North	16	6	10	0	0.375	265	299	-3.5	1.7	273.68	302.63	0.4420
2005	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC North	16	11	5	0	0.688	421	350	6.5	-2.7	433.68	373.03	0.6003
2005	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC North	16	6	10	0	0.375	232	301	-6.0	1.7	233.68	302.63	0.3536
2005	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC North	16	11	5	0	0.688	389	258	3.8	4.0	390.48	265.83	0.7259
2005	Houston Texans	htx	AFC South	16	2	14	0	0.125	260	431	-4.4	-5.7	259.28	421.03	0.2301
2005	Indianapolis Colts	clt	AFC South	16	14	2	0	0.875	439	247	5.6	5.2	419.28	246.63	0.7935
2005	Jacksonville Jaguars	jax	AFC South	16	12	4	0	0.750	361	269	1.1	3.7	347.28	270.63	0.6514
2005	Tennessee Titans	oti	AFC South	16	4	12	0	0.250	299	421	-2.0	-5.5	297.68	417.83	0.2988
2005	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	13	3	0	0.813	395	258	5.0	5.8	409.68	237.03	0.7987
2005	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	403	325	5.1	1.9	411.28	299.43	0.6944
2005	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	4	12	0	0.250	290	383	-1.2	-1.6	310.48	355.43	0.4186
2005	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	418	312	7.1	2.9	443.28	283.43	0.7614
2005	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	325	308	-0.1	3.2	328.08	278.63	0.6014
2005	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	11	5	0	0.688	422	314	5.8	1.7	422.48	302.63	0.7041
2005	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	310	388	-0.6	-1.7	320.08	357.03	0.4342
2005	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	359	293	2.6	3.4	371.28	275.43	0.6803
2005	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC North	16	11	5	0	0.688	260	202	-5.2	6.6	246.48	224.23	0.5568
2005	Detroit Lions	det	NFC North	16	5	11	0	0.313	254	345	-4.3	-2.4	260.88	368.23	0.3015
2005	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC North	16	4	12	0	0.250	298	344	-1.5	-2.2	305.68	365.03	0.3929
2005	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC North	16	9	7	0	0.563	306	344	-1.4	-2.1	307.28	363.43	0.3987
2005	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC South	16	8	8	0	0.500	351	341	1.1	-2.3	347.28	366.63	0.4681
2005	Carolina Panthers	car	NFC South	16	11	5	0	0.688	391	259	3.0	2.1	377.68	296.23	0.6507
2005	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC South	16	3	13	0	0.188	235	398	-6.2	-4.9	230.48	408.23	0.1974
2005	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC South	16	11	5	0	0.688	300	274	-2.8	1.8	284.88	301.03	0.4691
2005	Arizona Cardinals	crd	NFC West	16	5	11	0	0.313	311	387	-2.0	-3.0	297.68	377.83	0.3569
2005	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	4	12	0	0.250	239	428	-5.6	-5.5	240.08	417.83	0.2027
2005	Seattle Seahawks	sea	NFC West	16	13	3	0	0.813	452	271	5.8	3.4	422.48	275.43	0.7501
2005	St. Louis Rams	ram	NFC West	16	6	10	0	0.375	363	429	1.3	-6.4	350.48	432.23	0.3691
2004	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	395	284	4.6	3.5	417.40	287.80	0.7239
2004	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	4	12	0	0.250	275	354	-2.7	0.5	300.60	335.80	0.4354
2004	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	14	2	0	0.875	437	260	6.3	6.5	444.60	239.80	0.8298
2004	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	333	261	0.5	6.0	351.80	247.80	0.7056
2004	Baltimore Ravens	rav	AFC North	16	9	7	0	0.563	317	268	-0.6	6.8	334.20	235.00	0.7041
2004	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC North	16	8	8	0	0.500	374	372	4.3	-1.6	412.60	369.40	0.5753
2004	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC North	16	4	12	0	0.250	276	390	-1.5	-1.9	319.80	374.20	0.4054
2004	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC North	16	15	1	0	0.938	372	251	3.4	5.6	398.20	254.20	0.7576
2004	Houston Texans	htx	AFC South	16	7	9	0	0.438	309	339	-2.4	1.8	305.40	315.00	0.4846
2004	Indianapolis Colts	clt	AFC South	16	12	4	0	0.750	522	351	11.7	-0.3	531.00	348.60	0.7595
2004	Jacksonville Jaguars	jax	AFC South	16	9	7	0	0.563	261	280	-5.7	6.4	252.60	241.40	0.5300
2004	Tennessee Titans	oti	AFC South	16	5	11	0	0.313	344	439	0.3	-4.6	348.60	417.40	0.3888
2004	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	381	304	1.6	4.3	369.40	275.00	0.6794
2004	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	483	435	10.0	-4.7	503.80	419.00	0.6263
2004	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	5	11	0	0.313	320	442	-0.6	-3.7	334.20	403.00	0.3856
2004	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	12	4	0	0.750	446	313	6.1	3.0	441.40	295.80	0.7404
2004	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	293	405	-3.0	-4.8	295.80	420.60	0.2930
2004	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	303	347	-2.3	-1.6	307.00	369.40	0.3893
2004	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	13	3	0	0.813	386	260	2.0	3.5	375.80	287.80	0.6648
2004	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	240	265	-7.4	4.0	225.40	279.80	0.3797
2004	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC North	16	5	11	0	0.313	231	331	-8.5	0.3	207.80	339.00	0.2407
2004	Detroit Lions	det	NFC North	16	6	10	0	0.375	296	350	-3.8	-1.4	283.00	366.20	0.3484
2004	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC North	16	10	6	0	0.625	424	380	4.3	-4.0	412.60	407.80	0.5114
2004	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC North	16	8	8	0	0.500	405	395	3.0	-4.7	391.80	419.00	0.4596
2004	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC South	16	11	5	0	0.688	340	337	-1.8	-0.4	315.00	350.20	0.4376
2004	Carolina Panthers	car	NFC South	16	7	9	0	0.438	355	339	-0.8	0.1	331.00	342.20	0.4827
2004	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC South	16	8	8	0	0.500	348	405	-1.2	-4.3	324.60	412.60	0.3541
2004	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC South	16	5	11	0	0.313	301	304	-4.0	1.3	279.80	323.00	0.4167
2004	Arizona Cardinals	crd	NFC West	16	6	10	0	0.375	284	322	-5.0	0.2	263.80	340.60	0.3521
2004	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	2	14	0	0.125	259	452	-5.1	-8.6	262.20	481.40	0.1765
2004	Seattle Seahawks	sea	NFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	371	373	0.4	-3.3	350.20	396.60	0.4241
2004	St. Louis Rams	ram	NFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	319	392	-2.2	-3.8	308.60	404.60	0.3375
2003	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	243	279	-5.0	4.0	253.26	269.36	0.4670
2003	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	311	261	-0.7	4.1	322.06	267.76	0.6138
2003	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	14	2	0	0.875	348	238	2.1	4.9	366.86	254.96	0.7137
2003	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	283	299	-1.9	1.3	302.86	312.56	0.4840
2003	Baltimore Ravens	rav	AFC North	16	10	6	0	0.625	391	281	3.3	3.0	386.06	285.36	0.6846
2003	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC North	16	8	8	0	0.500	346	384	1.1	-3.5	350.86	389.36	0.4367
2003	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC North	16	5	11	0	0.313	254	322	-5.3	2.4	248.46	294.96	0.4024
2003	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC North	16	6	10	0	0.375	300	327	-2.5	1.4	293.26	310.96	0.4675
2003	Houston Texans	htx	AFC South	16	5	11	0	0.313	255	380	-4.4	-1.5	262.86	357.36	0.3227
2003	Indianapolis Colts	clt	AFC South	16	12	4	0	0.750	447	336	8.2	-1.2	464.46	352.56	0.6775
2003	Jacksonville Jaguars	jax	AFC South	16	5	11	0	0.313	276	331	-3.3	0.9	280.46	318.96	0.4254
2003	Tennessee Titans	oti	AFC South	16	12	4	0	0.750	435	324	7.0	-0.5	445.26	341.36	0.6703
2003	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	381	301	2.4	3.1	371.66	283.76	0.6658
2003	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	13	3	0	0.813	484	332	9.2	-0.9	480.46	347.76	0.7050
2003	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	4	12	0	0.250	270	379	-4.2	-1.3	266.06	354.16	0.3341
2003	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	4	12	0	0.250	313	441	-0.6	-6.2	323.66	432.56	0.3241
2003	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	289	260	-3.2	2.7	282.06	290.16	0.4863
2003	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	4	12	0	0.250	243	387	-4.8	-3.7	256.46	392.56	0.2605
2003	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	12	4	0	0.750	374	287	2.9	1.5	379.66	309.36	0.6300
2003	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	5	11	0	0.313	287	372	-1.9	-3.8	302.86	394.16	0.3422
2003	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC North	16	7	9	0	0.438	283	346	-4.2	0.7	266.06	322.16	0.3891
2003	Detroit Lions	det	NFC North	16	5	11	0	0.313	270	379	-4.3	-1.6	264.46	358.96	0.3233
2003	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC North	16	10	6	0	0.625	442	307	6.2	1.9	432.46	302.96	0.7173
2003	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC North	16	9	7	0	0.563	416	353	4.0	-1.1	397.26	350.96	0.5826
2003	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC South	16	5	11	0	0.313	299	422	-2.0	-5.4	301.26	419.76	0.3031
2003	Carolina Panthers	car	NFC South	16	11	5	0	0.688	325	304	-1.5	0.6	309.26	323.76	0.4750
2003	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC South	16	8	8	0	0.500	340	326	0.1	-0.4	334.86	339.76	0.4942
2003	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC South	16	7	9	0	0.438	301	264	-2.9	4.5	286.86	261.36	0.5587
2003	Arizona Cardinals	crd	NFC West	16	4	12	0	0.250	225	452	-6.3	-6.2	232.46	432.56	0.1774
2003	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	384	337	3.0	0.1	381.26	331.76	0.5911
2003	Seattle Seahawks	sea	NFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	404	327	3.6	0.5	390.86	325.36	0.6183
2003	St. Louis Rams	ram	NFC West	16	12	4	0	0.750	447	328	6.0	-0.2	429.26	336.56	0.6562
2002	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	379	397	2.1	-2.3	380.43	383.58	0.4952
2002	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	378	301	1.7	4.4	374.03	276.38	0.6807
2002	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	381	346	2.1	1.9	380.43	316.38	0.6154
2002	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	359	336	0.9	2.3	361.23	309.98	0.5955
2002	Baltimore Ravens	rav	AFC North	16	7	9	0	0.438	316	354	-1.5	-0.6	322.83	356.38	0.4386
2002	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC North	16	2	14	0	0.125	279	456	-3.6	-6.9	289.23	457.18	0.2355
2002	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC North	16	9	7	0	0.563	344	320	-0.4	1.7	340.43	319.58	0.5400
2002	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC North	16	10	5	1	0.656	390	345	3.1	-0.4	396.43	353.18	0.5746
2002	Houston Texans	htx	AFC South	16	4	12	0	0.250	213	356	-8.4	-1.1	212.43	364.38	0.2137
2002	Indianapolis Colts	clt	AFC South	16	10	6	0	0.625	349	313	0.4	0.7	353.23	335.58	0.5329
2002	Jacksonville Jaguars	jax	AFC South	16	6	10	0	0.375	328	315	-1.3	1.1	326.03	329.18	0.4946
2002	Tennessee Titans	oti	AFC South	16	11	5	0	0.688	367	324	1.6	0.1	372.43	345.18	0.5490
2002	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	392	344	3.0	1.9	394.83	316.38	0.6381
2002	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	467	399	8.4	-2.3	481.23	383.58	0.6478
2002	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	11	5	0	0.688	450	304	6.3	4.3	447.63	277.98	0.7727
2002	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	333	367	-1.0	0.2	330.83	343.58	0.4768
2002	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	5	11	0	0.313	217	329	-8.2	-0.3	215.63	351.58	0.2359
2002	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	320	279	-2.2	3.0	311.63	298.78	0.5264
2002	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	12	4	0	0.750	415	241	4.5	3.8	418.83	285.98	0.7258
2002	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	7	9	0	0.438	307	365	-2.2	-2.2	311.63	381.98	0.3745
2002	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC North	16	4	12	0	0.250	281	379	-4.4	-0.9	276.43	361.18	0.3405
2002	Detroit Lions	det	NFC North	16	3	13	0	0.188	306	451	-2.5	-6.7	306.83	453.98	0.2665
2002	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC North	16	12	4	0	0.750	398	328	2.4	1.2	385.23	327.58	0.6025
2002	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC North	16	6	10	0	0.375	390	442	3.1	-6.1	396.43	444.38	0.4253
2002	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC South	16	9	6	1	0.594	402	314	3.5	1.5	402.83	322.78	0.6388
2002	Carolina Panthers	car	NFC South	16	7	9	0	0.438	258	302	-6.0	2.8	250.83	301.98	0.3913
2002	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC South	16	9	7	0	0.563	432	388	5.8	-3.3	439.63	399.58	0.5636
2002	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC South	16	12	4	0	0.750	346	196	-1.0	9.8	330.83	189.98	0.7880
2002	Arizona Cardinals	crd	NFC West	16	5	11	0	0.313	262	417	-5.4	-4.5	260.43	418.78	0.2326
2002	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	367	351	0.7	-0.1	358.03	348.38	0.5180
2002	Seattle Seahawks	sea	NFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	355	369	0.0	-1.2	346.83	365.98	0.4664
2002	St. Louis Rams	ram	NFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	316	369	-1.6	-1.8	321.23	375.58	0.4028
2001	Baltimore Ravens	rav	AFC Central	16	10	6	0	0.625	303	265	-0.8	4.0	310.61	259.41	0.6059
2001	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	16	6	10	0	0.375	226	309	-4.5	1.0	251.41	307.41	0.3804
2001	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC Central	16	7	9	0	0.438	285	319	-0.9	0.1	309.01	321.81	0.4738
2001	Jacksonville Jaguars	jax	AFC Central	16	6	10	0	0.375	294	286	-1.1	2.0	305.81	291.41	0.5283
2001	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	16	13	3	0	0.813	352	212	1.5	5.8	347.41	230.61	0.7284
2001	Tennessee Titans	oti	AFC Central	16	7	9	0	0.438	336	388	2.4	-4.4	361.81	393.81	0.4443
2001	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	3	13	0	0.188	265	420	-3.9	-5.7	261.01	414.61	0.2367
2001	Indianapolis Colts	clt	AFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	413	486	6.1	-9.8	421.01	480.21	0.4109
2001	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	11	5	0	0.688	344	290	-0.3	3.1	318.61	273.81	0.5902
2001	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	11	5	0	0.688	371	272	1.2	3.1	342.61	273.81	0.6334
2001	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	308	295	-2.0	2.8	291.41	278.61	0.5260
2001	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	340	339	0.5	-1.0	331.41	339.41	0.4839
2001	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	6	10	0	0.375	320	344	-0.2	-1.0	320.21	339.41	0.4625
2001	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	399	327	4.0	-0.4	387.41	329.81	0.6002
2001	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	5	11	0	0.313	332	321	0.3	-0.6	328.21	333.01	0.4898
2001	Seattle Seahawks	sea	AFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	301	324	-1.4	-0.4	301.01	329.81	0.4426
2001	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	16	13	3	0	0.813	338	203	0.8	7.1	336.21	209.81	0.7540
2001	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	16	2	14	0	0.125	270	424	-2.0	-5.2	291.41	406.61	0.2993
2001	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	16	12	4	0	0.750	390	266	4.0	2.6	387.41	281.81	0.6887
2001	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	16	5	11	0	0.313	290	390	-0.8	-3.9	310.61	385.81	0.3648
2001	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	324	280	0.7	3.3	334.61	270.61	0.6260
2001	Arizona Cardinals	crd	NFC East	16	7	9	0	0.438	295	343	-1.5	-2.6	299.41	365.01	0.3772
2001	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	5	11	0	0.313	246	338	-4.5	-1.5	251.41	347.41	0.3110
2001	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	7	9	0	0.438	294	321	-1.8	0.0	294.61	323.41	0.4417
2001	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	11	5	0	0.688	343	208	0.9	6.8	337.81	214.61	0.7466
2001	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	256	303	-4.0	0.4	259.41	317.01	0.3799
2001	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	291	377	-2.7	-2.0	280.21	355.41	0.3557
2001	Carolina Panthers	car	NFC West	16	1	15	0	0.063	253	410	-4.6	-4.4	249.81	393.81	0.2427
2001	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	333	409	-0.1	-4.7	321.81	398.61	0.3654
2001	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	12	4	0	0.750	409	282	4.2	2.7	390.61	280.21	0.6962
2001	St. Louis Rams	ram	NFC West	16	14	2	0	0.875	503	273	10.4	2.9	489.81	277.01	0.8134
2000	Baltimore Ravens	rav	AFC Central	16	12	4	0	0.750	333	165	0.0	8.0	330.72	202.83	0.7587
2000	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	16	4	12	0	0.250	185	359	-8.1	-2.4	201.12	369.23	0.1847
2000	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC Central	16	3	13	0	0.188	161	419	-9.1	-5.5	185.12	418.83	0.1165
2000	Jacksonville Jaguars	jax	AFC Central	16	7	9	0	0.438	367	327	3.2	-2.1	381.92	364.43	0.5274
2000	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	321	255	0.6	3.3	340.32	278.03	0.6191
2000	Tennessee Titans	oti	AFC Central	16	13	3	0	0.813	346	191	1.5	6.8	354.72	222.03	0.7537
2000	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	315	350	0.5	-0.5	338.72	338.83	0.4970
2000	Indianapolis Colts	clt	AFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	429	326	7.1	0.8	444.32	318.03	0.7013
2000	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	11	5	0	0.688	323	226	0.0	7.1	330.72	217.23	0.7291
2000	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	5	11	0	0.313	276	338	-2.7	0.2	287.52	327.63	0.4176
2000	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	321	321	1.4	2.2	353.12	295.63	0.6061
2000	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	11	5	0	0.688	485	369	7.8	-2.7	455.52	374.03	0.6247
2000	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	355	354	0.1	0.6	332.32	321.23	0.5183
2000	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	12	4	0	0.750	479	299	8.0	1.8	458.72	302.03	0.7442
2000	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	1	15	0	0.063	269	440	-3.7	-4.4	271.52	401.23	0.2697
2000	Seattle Seahawks	sea	AFC West	16	6	10	0	0.375	320	405	-1.4	-2.3	308.32	367.63	0.3882
2000	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	16	5	11	0	0.313	216	355	-6.4	0.1	228.32	329.23	0.2907
2000	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	307	307	-0.1	1.5	329.12	306.83	0.5405
2000	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	353	323	1.8	0.7	359.52	319.63	0.5707
2000	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	16	11	5	0	0.688	397	371	4.3	-2.3	399.52	367.63	0.5510
2000	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC Central	16	10	6	0	0.625	388	269	3.4	3.9	385.12	268.43	0.7083
2000	Arizona Cardinals	crd	NFC East	16	3	13	0	0.188	210	443	-7.2	-8.1	215.52	460.43	0.1261
2000	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	5	11	0	0.313	294	361	-1.5	-3.0	306.72	378.83	0.3669
2000	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	12	4	0	0.750	328	246	-1.3	3.8	309.92	270.03	0.5799
2000	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	11	5	0	0.688	351	245	1.0	2.1	346.72	297.23	0.5918
2000	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	281	269	-2.9	3.8	284.32	270.03	0.5280
2000	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	16	4	12	0	0.250	252	413	-5.7	-2.9	239.52	377.23	0.2436
2000	Carolina Panthers	car	NFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	310	310	-3.6	2.5	273.12	290.83	0.4594
2000	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	354	305	-1.2	2.1	311.52	297.23	0.5259
2000	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	6	10	0	0.375	388	422	1.7	-5.5	357.92	418.83	0.3962
2000	St. Louis Rams	ram	NFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	540	471	12.6	-9.5	532.32	482.83	0.5646
1999	Baltimore Ravens	rav	AFC Central	16	8	8	0	0.500	324	277	-1.6	2.5	307.43	293.08	0.5251
1999	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	16	4	12	0	0.250	283	460	-3.3	-8.2	280.23	464.28	0.2099
1999	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC Central	16	2	14	0	0.125	217	437	-7.6	-6.5	211.43	437.08	0.1367
1999	Jacksonville Jaguars	jax	AFC Central	16	14	2	0	0.875	396	217	1.3	5.1	353.83	251.48	0.6937
1999	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	16	6	10	0	0.375	317	320	-2.2	-0.2	297.83	336.28	0.4213
1999	Tennessee Titans	oti	AFC Central	16	13	3	0	0.813	392	324	2.0	-1.0	365.03	349.08	0.5244
1999	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	11	5	0	0.688	320	229	-0.2	7.4	329.83	214.68	0.7319
1999	Indianapolis Colts	clt	AFC East	16	13	3	0	0.813	423	333	6.6	-0.5	438.63	341.08	0.6543
1999	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	326	336	1.2	0.7	352.23	321.88	0.5524
1999	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	299	284	-1.0	3.2	317.03	281.88	0.5672
1999	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	308	309	0.2	2.9	336.23	286.68	0.5930
1999	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	6	10	0	0.375	314	318	1.0	2.4	349.03	294.68	0.5997
1999	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	390	322	5.5	1.3	421.03	312.28	0.6789
1999	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	390	329	5.7	1.0	424.23	317.08	0.6751
1999	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	269	316	-3.9	2.9	270.63	286.68	0.4614
1999	Seattle Seahawks	sea	AFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	338	298	1.9	2.6	363.43	291.48	0.6303
1999	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	16	6	10	0	0.375	272	341	-3.0	1.0	285.03	317.08	0.4312
1999	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	16	8	8	0	0.500	322	323	0.1	1.8	334.63	304.28	0.5547
1999	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	16	8	8	0	0.500	357	341	2.5	-0.9	373.03	347.48	0.5412
1999	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	16	10	6	0	0.625	399	335	5.2	-0.8	416.23	345.88	0.6137
1999	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC Central	16	11	5	0	0.688	270	235	-4.1	6.7	267.43	225.88	0.5930
1999	Arizona Cardinals	crd	NFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	245	382	-5.5	-3.2	245.03	384.28	0.2433
1999	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	352	276	-0.3	3.4	328.23	278.68	0.5949
1999	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	7	9	0	0.438	299	358	-1.8	-1.2	304.23	352.28	0.4054
1999	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	5	11	0	0.313	272	357	-3.3	-0.9	280.23	347.48	0.3661
1999	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	443	377	6.8	-3.9	441.83	395.48	0.5689
1999	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	16	5	11	0	0.313	285	380	-4.0	-3.0	269.03	381.08	0.2916
1999	Carolina Panthers	car	NFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	421	381	2.9	-4.0	379.43	397.08	0.4664
1999	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	16	3	13	0	0.188	260	434	-5.3	-6.9	248.23	443.48	0.1831
1999	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	4	12	0	0.250	295	453	-4.5	-6.8	261.03	441.88	0.2038
1999	St. Louis Rams	ram	NFC West	16	13	3	0	0.813	526	242	8.7	3.2	472.23	281.88	0.7875
1998	Baltimore Ravens	rav	AFC Central	16	6	10	0	0.375	269	335	-5.2	-0.2	257.35	343.59	0.3389
1998	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	16	3	13	0	0.188	268	452	-4.5	-6.5	268.55	444.39	0.2253
1998	Jacksonville Jaguars	jax	AFC Central	16	11	5	0	0.688	392	338	3.1	-0.6	390.15	349.99	0.5780
1998	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	16	7	9	0	0.438	263	303	-5.1	1.3	258.95	319.59	0.3838
1998	Tennessee Oilers	oti	AFC Central	16	8	8	0	0.500	330	320	-0.5	0.5	332.55	332.39	0.5088
1998	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	400	333	4.4	0.7	410.95	329.19	0.6475
1998	Indianapolis Colts	clt	AFC East	16	3	13	0	0.188	310	444	-0.1	-5.3	338.95	425.19	0.3656
1998	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	321	265	-0.7	6.5	329.35	236.39	0.6983
1998	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	337	329	1.1	2.8	358.15	295.59	0.6261
1998	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	12	4	0	0.750	416	266	5.4	5.8	426.95	247.59	0.8060
1998	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	14	2	0	0.875	501	309	9.5	-0.6	492.55	349.99	0.7211
1998	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	327	363	-0.7	-2.4	329.35	378.79	0.4204
1998	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	288	356	-4.1	-1.5	274.95	364.39	0.3405
1998	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	5	11	0	0.313	241	342	-7.7	-0.7	217.35	351.59	0.2472
1998	Seattle Seahawks	sea	AFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	372	310	0.9	0.6	354.95	330.79	0.5529
1998	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	16	4	12	0	0.250	276	368	-3.4	-0.3	286.15	345.19	0.3945
1998	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	16	5	11	0	0.313	306	378	-1.9	-1.5	310.15	364.39	0.4085
1998	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	16	11	5	0	0.688	408	319	4.3	0.7	409.35	329.19	0.6451
1998	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	16	15	1	0	0.938	556	296	13.2	1.6	551.75	314.79	0.8264
1998	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC Central	16	8	8	0	0.500	314	295	-2.3	3.5	303.75	284.39	0.5485
1998	Arizona Cardinals	crd	NFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	325	378	-1.6	-5.8	314.95	433.19	0.3137
1998	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	381	275	0.9	2.6	354.95	298.79	0.6144
1998	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	287	309	-4.3	1.1	271.75	322.79	0.4051
1998	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	3	13	0	0.188	161	344	-12.3	-0.5	143.75	348.39	0.1215
1998	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	319	421	-1.5	-6.0	316.55	436.39	0.3122
1998	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	16	14	2	0	0.875	442	289	7.0	3.0	452.55	292.39	0.7637
1998	Carolina Panthers	car	NFC West	16	4	12	0	0.250	336	413	1.0	-2.4	356.55	378.79	0.4697
1998	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	16	6	10	0	0.375	305	359	-1.5	1.6	316.55	314.79	0.5120
1998	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	12	4	0	0.750	479	328	8.8	1.8	481.35	311.59	0.7660
1998	St. Louis Rams	ram	NFC West	16	4	12	0	0.250	285	378	-2.3	0.0	303.75	340.39	0.4382
1997	Baltimore Ravens	rav	AFC Central	16	6	9	1	0.406	326	345	-0.4	-0.2	325.61	335.05	0.4824
1997	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	16	7	9	0	0.438	355	405	1.8	-4.0	360.81	395.85	0.4406
1997	Jacksonville Jaguars	jax	AFC Central	16	11	5	0	0.688	394	318	4.4	1.0	402.41	315.85	0.6503
1997	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	16	11	5	0	0.688	372	307	2.7	2.6	375.21	290.25	0.6559
1997	Tennessee Oilers	oti	AFC Central	16	8	8	0	0.500	333	310	-0.3	1.9	327.21	301.45	0.5508
1997	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	255	367	-4.0	-0.5	268.01	339.85	0.3587
1997	Indianapolis Colts	clt	AFC East	16	3	13	0	0.188	313	401	-0.6	-3.8	322.41	392.65	0.3771
1997	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	339	327	1.0	0.3	348.01	327.05	0.5393
1997	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	369	289	2.3	3.0	368.81	283.85	0.6581
1997	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	348	287	0.1	2.8	333.61	287.05	0.5919
1997	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	12	4	0	0.750	472	287	8.1	2.6	461.61	290.25	0.7686
1997	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	13	3	0	0.813	375	232	1.8	6.6	360.81	226.25	0.7570
1997	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	4	12	0	0.250	324	419	-0.1	-5.0	330.41	411.85	0.3621
1997	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	4	12	0	0.250	266	425	-4.1	-4.8	266.41	408.65	0.2545
1997	Seattle Seahawks	sea	AFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	365	362	1.8	-1.7	360.81	359.05	0.5034
1997	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	16	4	12	0	0.250	263	421	-3.1	-5.3	282.41	416.65	0.2718
1997	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	379	306	3.0	0.9	380.01	317.45	0.6124
1997	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	16	13	3	0	0.813	422	282	5.3	2.4	416.81	293.45	0.7101
1997	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	354	359	1.7	-1.8	359.21	360.65	0.4978
1997	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC Central	16	10	6	0	0.625	299	263	-2.4	5.1	293.61	250.25	0.5945
1997	Arizona Cardinals	crd	NFC East	16	4	12	0	0.250	283	379	-2.6	-3.8	290.41	392.65	0.3187
1997	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	304	314	-1.7	1.0	304.81	315.85	0.4784
1997	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	10	5	1	0.656	307	265	-1.8	3.3	303.21	279.05	0.5505
1997	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	6	9	1	0.406	317	372	-0.7	-2.3	320.81	368.65	0.4133
1997	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	8	7	1	0.531	327	289	-0.6	1.8	322.41	303.05	0.5385
1997	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	320	361	-1.2	-2.9	312.81	378.25	0.3824
1997	Carolina Panthers	car	NFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	265	314	-4.4	0.8	261.61	319.05	0.3823
1997	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	16	6	10	0	0.375	237	327	-6.8	-0.6	223.21	341.45	0.2646
1997	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	13	3	0	0.813	375	265	2.4	2.7	370.41	288.65	0.6514
1997	St. Louis Rams	ram	NFC West	16	5	11	0	0.313	299	359	-1.8	-2.2	303.21	367.05	0.3826
1996	Baltimore Ravens	rav	AFC Central	16	4	12	0	0.250	371	441	3.9	-6.8	389.18	435.63	0.4254
1996	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	16	8	8	0	0.500	372	369	2.5	-2.6	366.78	368.43	0.4964
1996	Houston Oilers	oti	AFC Central	16	8	8	0	0.500	345	319	0.1	0.8	328.38	314.03	0.5271
1996	Jacksonville Jaguars	jax	AFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	325	335	-1.6	0.1	301.18	325.23	0.4520
1996	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	16	10	6	0	0.625	344	257	0.0	5.1	326.78	245.23	0.6661
1996	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	319	266	-1.0	3.9	310.78	264.43	0.5958
1996	Indianapolis Colts	clt	AFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	317	334	-1.8	0.2	297.98	323.63	0.4486
1996	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	339	325	0.6	-0.4	336.38	333.23	0.5052
1996	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	11	5	0	0.688	418	313	4.9	0.2	405.18	323.63	0.6395
1996	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	1	15	0	0.063	279	454	-2.5	-7.6	286.78	448.43	0.2400
1996	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	13	3	0	0.813	391	275	3.7	3.9	385.98	264.43	0.7190
1996	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	297	300	-0.7	2.5	315.58	286.83	0.5575
1996	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	340	293	0.3	2.1	331.58	293.23	0.5746
1996	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	310	376	0.4	-2.1	333.18	360.43	0.4497
1996	Seattle Seahawks	sea	AFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	317	376	1.0	-2.6	342.78	368.43	0.4535
1996	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	16	7	9	0	0.438	283	305	-1.4	1.2	304.38	307.63	0.4928
1996	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	16	5	11	0	0.313	302	368	-0.4	-2.5	320.38	366.83	0.4146
1996	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	16	13	3	0	0.813	456	210	8.7	6.6	465.98	221.23	0.8673
1996	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	298	315	-0.9	0.7	312.38	315.63	0.4929
1996	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC Central	16	6	10	0	0.375	221	293	-5.9	2.9	232.38	280.43	0.3906
1996	Arizona Cardinals	crd	NFC East	16	7	9	0	0.438	300	397	-1.7	-5.8	299.58	419.63	0.2964
1996	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	286	250	-2.9	5.3	280.38	242.03	0.5853
1996	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	242	297	-5.7	1.5	235.58	302.83	0.3542
1996	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	363	341	2.1	-1.6	360.38	352.43	0.5135
1996	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	364	312	2.3	-0.4	363.58	333.23	0.5544
1996	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	16	3	13	0	0.188	309	461	-0.2	-8.9	323.58	469.23	0.2736
1996	Carolina Panthers	car	NFC West	16	12	4	0	0.750	367	218	1.4	5.6	349.18	237.23	0.7183
1996	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	16	3	13	0	0.188	229	339	-7.1	-1.0	213.18	342.83	0.2417
1996	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	12	4	0	0.750	398	257	3.7	4.3	385.98	258.03	0.7307
1996	St. Louis Rams	ram	NFC West	16	6	10	0	0.375	303	409	-1.7	-4.6	299.58	400.43	0.3231
1995	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	16	7	9	0	0.438	349	374	0.1	-1.9	345.35	374.04	0.4529
1995	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC Central	16	5	11	0	0.313	289	356	-3.2	-0.6	292.55	353.24	0.3885
1995	Houston Oilers	oti	AFC Central	16	7	9	0	0.438	348	324	-0.1	0.9	342.15	329.24	0.5279
1995	Jacksonville Jaguars	jax	AFC Central	16	4	12	0	0.250	275	404	-4.4	-3.7	273.35	402.84	0.2774
1995	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	16	11	5	0	0.688	407	327	3.4	1.2	398.15	324.44	0.6318
1995	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	350	335	-0.5	-0.4	335.75	350.04	0.4774
1995	Indianapolis Colts	clt	AFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	331	316	-1.7	0.4	316.55	337.24	0.4643
1995	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	398	332	3.1	-0.4	393.35	350.04	0.5783
1995	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	294	377	-2.8	-2.6	298.95	385.24	0.3489
1995	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	3	13	0	0.188	233	384	-7.9	-3.3	217.35	396.44	0.1896
1995	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	388	345	3.3	-0.2	396.55	346.84	0.5892
1995	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	13	3	0	0.813	358	241	0.8	6.9	356.55	233.24	0.7412
1995	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	348	332	1.1	1.0	361.35	327.64	0.5653
1995	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	321	323	-0.6	2.1	334.15	310.04	0.5502
1995	Seattle Seahawks	sea	AFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	363	366	1.6	-2.2	369.35	378.84	0.4874
1995	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	392	360	3.1	-0.8	393.35	356.44	0.5670
1995	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	16	10	6	0	0.625	436	336	5.9	1.0	438.15	327.64	0.6839
1995	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	16	11	5	0	0.688	404	314	3.5	2.5	399.75	303.64	0.6717
1995	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	16	8	8	0	0.500	412	385	5.1	-1.4	425.35	366.04	0.6007
1995	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC Central	16	7	9	0	0.438	238	335	-6.9	1.9	233.35	313.24	0.3348
1995	Arizona Cardinals	crd	NFC East	16	4	12	0	0.250	275	422	-3.5	-4.0	287.75	407.64	0.2963
1995	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	12	4	0	0.750	435	291	6.2	3.5	442.95	287.64	0.7554
1995	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	5	11	0	0.313	290	340	-2.6	1.1	302.15	326.04	0.4568
1995	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	318	338	-1.9	0.2	313.35	340.44	0.4522
1995	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	326	359	-0.8	-1.2	330.95	362.84	0.4457
1995	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	362	349	0.9	-0.9	358.15	358.04	0.5039
1995	Carolina Panthers	car	NFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	289	325	-4.1	0.3	278.15	338.84	0.3846
1995	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	319	348	-1.7	-0.4	316.55	350.04	0.4410
1995	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	11	5	0	0.688	457	258	6.5	5.3	447.75	258.84	0.8050
1995	St. Louis Rams	ram	NFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	309	418	-1.8	-4.6	314.95	417.24	0.3307
1994	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	16	3	13	0	0.188	276	406	-1.6	-5.4	298.56	410.45	0.3110
1994	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC Central	16	11	5	0	0.688	340	204	1.2	6.1	343.36	226.45	0.7352
1994	Houston Oilers	oti	AFC Central	16	2	14	0	0.125	226	352	-4.7	-2.6	248.96	365.65	0.2831
1994	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	16	12	4	0	0.750	316	234	-0.2	5.0	320.96	244.05	0.6625
1994	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	7	9	0	0.438	340	356	1.5	-1.8	348.16	352.85	0.4948
1994	Indianapolis Colts	clt	AFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	307	320	-1.3	-0.2	303.36	327.25	0.4565
1994	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	389	327	4.5	-0.3	396.16	328.85	0.6203
1994	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	351	312	1.9	1.3	354.56	303.25	0.5997
1994	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	264	320	-3.7	1.5	264.96	300.05	0.4289
1994	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	347	396	1.3	-4.6	344.96	397.65	0.4127
1994	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	319	298	-1.3	2.1	303.36	290.45	0.5297
1994	Los Angeles Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	303	327	-1.9	0.3	293.76	319.25	0.4523
1994	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	11	5	0	0.688	381	306	2.9	0.7	370.56	312.85	0.6085
1994	Seattle Seahawks	sea	AFC West	16	6	10	0	0.375	287	323	-2.8	-0.6	279.36	333.65	0.3959
1994	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	271	307	-3.2	1.3	272.96	303.25	0.4399
1994	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	357	342	2.8	-0.4	368.96	330.45	0.5728
1994	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	382	287	3.8	2.2	384.96	288.85	0.6764
1994	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	16	10	6	0	0.625	356	314	2.4	0.8	362.56	311.25	0.5980
1994	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC Central	16	6	10	0	0.375	251	351	-5.4	-0.8	237.76	336.85	0.3043
1994	Arizona Cardinals	crd	NFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	235	267	-5.6	3.3	234.56	271.25	0.4189
1994	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	12	4	0	0.750	414	248	5.6	4.5	413.76	252.05	0.7793
1994	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	279	305	-2.7	1.0	280.96	308.05	0.4475
1994	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	7	9	0	0.438	308	308	-0.4	1.0	317.76	308.05	0.5224
1994	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	3	13	0	0.188	320	412	0.3	-6.4	328.96	426.45	0.3414
1994	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	317	385	-1.2	-3.1	304.96	373.65	0.3780
1994	Los Angeles Rams	ram	NFC West	16	4	12	0	0.250	286	365	-3.2	-2.1	272.96	357.65	0.3421
1994	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	348	407	1.0	-4.6	340.16	397.65	0.4042
1994	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	13	3	0	0.813	505	296	9.9	1.7	482.56	296.85	0.7834
1993	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	16	3	13	0	0.188	187	319	-7.4	-1.0	180.78	315.18	0.2164
1993	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC Central	16	7	9	0	0.438	304	307	-0.6	-0.6	289.58	308.78	0.4625
1993	Houston Oilers	oti	AFC Central	16	12	4	0	0.750	368	238	4.1	3.1	364.78	249.58	0.7193
1993	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	308	281	0.1	1.5	300.78	275.18	0.5552
1993	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	12	4	0	0.750	329	242	1.8	3.0	327.98	251.18	0.6578
1993	Indianapolis Colts	clt	AFC East	16	4	12	0	0.250	189	378	-6.2	-5.1	199.98	380.78	0.1750
1993	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	349	351	3.9	-4.3	361.58	367.98	0.4903
1993	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	5	11	0	0.313	238	286	-4.0	0.3	235.18	294.38	0.3716
1993	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	270	247	-2.1	2.9	265.58	252.78	0.5307
1993	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	373	284	4.6	0.4	372.78	292.78	0.6485
1993	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	11	5	0	0.688	328	291	1.9	1.0	329.58	283.18	0.5937
1993	Los Angeles Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	306	326	1.1	-1.7	316.78	326.38	0.4830
1993	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	322	290	1.1	1.1	316.78	281.58	0.5730
1993	Seattle Seahawks	sea	AFC West	16	6	10	0	0.375	280	314	-0.8	-0.5	286.38	307.18	0.4589
1993	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	16	7	9	0	0.438	234	230	-4.6	4.3	225.58	230.38	0.4896
1993	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	16	10	6	0	0.625	298	292	-0.3	0.0	294.38	299.18	0.4917
1993	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	340	282	2.7	0.5	342.38	291.18	0.6006
1993	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	277	290	-1.3	1.2	278.38	279.98	0.4981
1993	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC Central	16	5	11	0	0.313	237	376	-3.3	-4.3	246.38	367.98	0.2732
1993	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	12	4	0	0.750	376	229	4.9	4.7	377.58	223.98	0.7835
1993	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	11	5	0	0.688	288	205	-0.8	5.4	286.38	212.78	0.6684
1993	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	293	315	0.7	-0.3	310.38	303.98	0.5144
1993	Phoenix Cardinals	crd	NFC East	16	7	9	0	0.438	326	269	1.9	2.1	329.58	265.58	0.6303
1993	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	4	12	0	0.250	230	345	-3.8	-2.7	238.38	342.38	0.2952
1993	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	16	6	10	0	0.375	316	385	0.8	-5.2	311.98	382.38	0.3755
1993	Los Angeles Rams	ram	NFC West	16	5	11	0	0.313	221	367	-5.0	-3.4	219.18	353.58	0.2411
1993	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	317	343	0.7	-2.1	310.38	332.78	0.4584
1993	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	473	295	9.9	-0.3	457.58	303.98	0.7443
1992	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	16	5	11	0	0.313	274	364	-0.9	-5.7	285.28	390.94	0.3152
1992	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC Central	16	7	9	0	0.438	272	275	-2.0	1.0	267.68	283.74	0.4689
1992	Houston Oilers	oti	AFC Central	16	10	6	0	0.625	352	258	3.0	2.6	347.68	258.14	0.6784
1992	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	16	11	5	0	0.688	299	225	-0.4	4.0	293.28	235.74	0.6303
1992	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	11	5	0	0.688	381	283	4.7	-0.4	374.88	306.14	0.6287
1992	Indianapolis Colts	clt	AFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	216	302	-6.0	-1.0	203.68	315.74	0.2660
1992	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	11	5	0	0.688	340	281	2.1	-0.6	333.28	309.34	0.5499
1992	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	2	14	0	0.125	205	363	-6.5	-4.5	195.68	371.74	0.1792
1992	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	4	12	0	0.250	220	315	-6.0	-0.9	203.68	314.14	0.2685
1992	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	262	329	-1.4	-1.9	277.28	330.14	0.3984
1992	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	348	282	3.7	-0.2	358.88	302.94	0.6082
1992	Los Angeles Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	249	281	-3.2	1.5	248.48	275.74	0.4425
1992	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	11	5	0	0.688	335	241	1.8	1.3	328.48	278.94	0.6026
1992	Seattle Seahawks	sea	AFC West	16	2	14	0	0.125	140	312	-9.8	-0.2	142.88	302.94	0.1572
1992	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	16	5	11	0	0.313	295	361	-0.2	-3.3	296.48	352.54	0.3975
1992	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	16	5	11	0	0.313	273	332	-0.7	-1.1	288.48	317.34	0.4456
1992	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	276	296	-2.6	1.0	258.08	283.74	0.4475
1992	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	16	11	5	0	0.688	374	249	4.4	3.3	370.08	246.94	0.7339
1992	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC Central	16	5	11	0	0.313	267	365	-2.0	-3.9	267.68	362.14	0.3251
1992	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	13	3	0	0.813	409	243	6.4	3.5	402.08	243.74	0.7803
1992	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	306	367	1.6	-3.4	325.28	354.14	0.4504
1992	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	11	5	0	0.688	354	245	4.8	4.1	376.48	234.14	0.7661
1992	Phoenix Cardinals	crd	NFC East	16	4	12	0	0.250	243	332	-2.9	-0.1	253.28	301.34	0.4011
1992	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	300	255	0.7	3.8	310.88	238.94	0.6561
1992	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	16	6	10	0	0.375	327	414	2.3	-6.4	336.48	402.14	0.3910
1992	Los Angeles Rams	ram	NFC West	16	6	10	0	0.375	313	383	1.1	-4.0	317.28	363.74	0.4184
1992	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	16	12	4	0	0.750	330	202	0.7	7.1	310.88	186.14	0.7717
1992	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	14	2	0	0.875	431	236	7.3	4.5	416.48	227.74	0.8215
1991	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	16	3	13	0	0.188	263	435	-1.8	-6.9	275.04	414.19	0.2645
1991	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC Central	16	6	10	0	0.375	293	298	-0.7	0.4	292.64	297.39	0.4927
1991	Houston Oilers	oti	AFC Central	16	11	5	0	0.688	386	251	4.9	3.4	382.24	249.39	0.7446
1991	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	16	7	9	0	0.438	292	344	-0.8	-2.2	291.04	338.99	0.4092
1991	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	13	3	0	0.813	458	318	7.6	-4.1	425.44	369.39	0.5939
1991	Indianapolis Colts	clt	AFC East	16	1	15	0	0.063	143	381	-11.5	-5.7	119.84	394.99	0.0594
1991	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	343	349	0.7	-4.8	315.04	380.59	0.3849
1991	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	211	305	-7.9	-0.8	177.44	316.59	0.2085
1991	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	314	293	-1.2	-1.2	284.64	322.99	0.4256
1991	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	12	4	0	0.750	304	235	0.3	3.1	308.64	254.19	0.6171
1991	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	322	252	1.8	4.5	332.64	231.79	0.7071
1991	Los Angeles Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	298	297	0.3	1.1	308.64	286.19	0.5484
1991	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	4	12	0	0.250	274	342	-0.6	-1.7	294.24	330.99	0.4303
1991	Seattle Seahawks	sea	AFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	276	261	-1.5	2.7	279.84	260.59	0.5448
1991	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	16	11	5	0	0.688	299	269	-1.2	2.0	284.64	271.79	0.5301
1991	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	16	12	4	0	0.750	339	295	0.9	0.0	318.24	303.79	0.5311
1991	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	16	4	12	0	0.250	273	313	-3.3	-1.4	251.04	326.19	0.3491
1991	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	16	8	8	0	0.500	301	306	-0.2	-1.8	300.64	332.59	0.4402
1991	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC Central	16	3	13	0	0.188	199	365	-7.0	-4.2	191.84	370.99	0.1723
1991	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	11	5	0	0.688	342	310	3.7	0.8	363.04	290.99	0.6371
1991	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	281	297	-0.6	1.5	294.24	279.79	0.5329
1991	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	285	244	-0.3	5.0	299.04	223.79	0.6673
1991	Phoenix Cardinals	crd	NFC East	16	4	12	0	0.250	196	344	-4.9	-0.5	225.44	311.79	0.3187
1991	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	14	2	0	0.875	485	224	11.7	4.9	491.04	225.39	0.8820
1991	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	361	338	4.7	-1.3	379.04	324.59	0.5998
1991	Los Angeles Rams	ram	NFC West	16	3	13	0	0.188	234	390	-2.6	-3.4	262.24	358.19	0.3193
1991	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	16	11	5	0	0.688	341	211	2.8	6.3	348.64	202.99	0.7874
1991	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	393	239	6.6	4.3	409.44	234.99	0.8016
1990	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	360	352	1.9	-3.0	352.42	369.91	0.4632
1990	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC Central	16	3	13	0	0.188	228	462	-5.2	-7.8	238.82	446.71	0.1647
1990	Houston Oilers	oti	AFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	405	307	4.9	0.3	400.42	317.11	0.6389
1990	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	292	240	-3.4	5.0	267.62	241.91	0.5532
1990	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	13	3	0	0.813	428	263	5.7	2.9	413.22	275.51	0.7301
1990	Indianapolis Colts	clt	AFC East	16	7	9	0	0.438	281	353	-2.7	-1.2	278.82	341.11	0.3725
1990	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	12	4	0	0.750	336	242	0.5	4.2	330.02	254.71	0.6465
1990	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	1	15	0	0.063	181	446	-7.5	-7.1	202.02	435.51	0.1236
1990	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	295	345	-2.0	-2.6	290.02	363.51	0.3569
1990	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	5	11	0	0.313	331	374	2.1	-2.9	355.62	368.31	0.4718
1990	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	11	5	0	0.688	369	257	2.7	4.1	365.22	256.31	0.6996
1990	Los Angeles Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	12	4	0	0.750	337	268	2.2	4.4	357.22	251.51	0.6970
1990	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	6	10	0	0.375	315	281	-0.1	2.5	320.42	281.91	0.5719
1990	Seattle Seahawks	sea	AFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	306	286	-0.5	3.3	314.02	269.11	0.5867
1990	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	16	11	5	0	0.688	348	280	0.1	3.3	323.62	269.11	0.6047
1990	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	16	6	10	0	0.375	373	413	4.2	-5.9	389.22	416.31	0.4501
1990	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	16	6	10	0	0.375	271	347	-3.7	-0.4	262.82	328.31	0.3619
1990	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	16	6	10	0	0.375	351	326	2.6	-0.2	363.62	325.11	0.5645
1990	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC Central	16	6	10	0	0.375	264	367	-4.0	-3.2	258.02	373.11	0.2806
1990	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	7	9	0	0.438	244	308	-4.8	1.1	245.22	304.31	0.3679
1990	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	13	3	0	0.813	335	211	0.0	7.6	322.02	200.31	0.7484
1990	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	396	299	4.5	1.1	394.02	304.31	0.6524
1990	Phoenix Cardinals	crd	NFC East	16	5	11	0	0.313	268	396	-1.9	-4.8	291.62	398.71	0.3060
1990	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	381	301	4.6	0.8	395.62	309.11	0.6461
1990	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	16	5	11	0	0.313	348	365	0.9	-3.1	336.42	371.51	0.4314
1990	Los Angeles Rams	ram	NFC West	16	5	11	0	0.313	345	412	2.3	-6.5	358.82	425.91	0.3841
1990	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	274	275	-4.7	3.4	246.82	267.51	0.4470
1990	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	14	2	0	0.875	353	239	1.2	4.6	341.22	248.31	0.6785
1989	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	16	8	8	0	0.500	404	285	4.6	2.4	403.26	291.43	0.6940
1989	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC Central	16	9	6	1	0.594	334	254	-0.2	4.6	326.46	256.23	0.6420
1989	Houston Oilers	oti	AFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	365	412	2.8	-5.3	374.46	414.63	0.4329
1989	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	265	326	-4.3	0.6	260.86	320.23	0.3773
1989	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	409	317	3.8	0.5	390.46	321.83	0.6199
1989	Indianapolis Colts	clt	AFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	298	301	-2.7	2.2	286.46	294.63	0.4821
1989	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	331	379	-0.6	-4.2	320.06	397.03	0.3649
1989	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	5	11	0	0.313	297	391	-3.0	-4.0	281.66	393.83	0.2999
1989	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	4	12	0	0.250	253	411	-4.9	-5.2	251.26	413.03	0.2226
1989	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	11	5	0	0.688	362	226	3.7	5.7	388.86	238.63	0.7688
1989	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	8	7	1	0.531	318	286	-0.1	2.1	328.06	296.23	0.5618
1989	Los Angeles Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	315	297	0.0	1.9	329.66	299.43	0.5583
1989	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	6	10	0	0.375	266	290	-2.9	2.1	283.26	296.23	0.4720
1989	Seattle Seahawks	sea	AFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	241	327	-3.6	0.8	272.06	317.03	0.4071
1989	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	16	6	10	0	0.375	358	377	1.8	-1.8	358.46	358.63	0.4988
1989	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	16	7	9	0	0.438	312	364	-1.7	-1.8	302.46	358.63	0.3941
1989	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	16	10	6	0	0.625	362	356	1.0	-2.0	345.66	361.83	0.4701
1989	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	16	10	6	0	0.625	351	275	0.2	4.1	332.86	264.23	0.6364
1989	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC Central	16	5	11	0	0.313	320	419	-0.4	-4.7	323.26	405.03	0.3585
1989	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	1	15	0	0.063	204	393	-7.6	-2.8	208.06	374.63	0.1927
1989	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	12	4	0	0.750	348	252	1.9	4.6	360.06	256.23	0.6970
1989	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	11	5	0	0.688	342	274	1.9	3.2	360.06	278.63	0.6531
1989	Phoenix Cardinals	crd	NFC East	16	5	11	0	0.313	258	377	-4.0	-3.1	265.66	379.43	0.2909
1989	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	386	308	3.8	0.2	390.46	326.63	0.6112
1989	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	16	3	13	0	0.188	279	437	-3.2	-5.9	278.46	424.23	0.2545
1989	Los Angeles Rams	ram	NFC West	16	11	5	0	0.688	426	344	5.7	-1.1	420.86	347.43	0.6211
1989	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	386	301	2.3	2.2	366.46	294.63	0.6324
1989	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	14	2	0	0.875	442	253	5.8	4.9	422.46	251.43	0.7858
1988	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	16	12	4	0	0.750	448	329	7.1	-1.0	437.65	339.99	0.6622
1988	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC Central	16	10	6	0	0.625	304	288	-3.5	4.0	268.05	259.99	0.5215
1988	Houston Oilers	oti	AFC Central	16	10	6	0	0.625	424	365	5.3	-2.3	408.85	360.79	0.5840
1988	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	16	5	11	0	0.313	336	421	0.1	-5.5	325.65	411.99	0.3567
1988	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	12	4	0	0.750	329	237	0.0	6.4	324.05	221.59	0.7159
1988	Indianapolis Colts	clt	AFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	354	315	2.9	0.3	370.45	319.19	0.5965
1988	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	319	380	1.0	-3.9	340.05	386.39	0.4223
1988	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	250	284	-4.5	4.4	252.05	253.59	0.4999
1988	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	8	7	1	0.531	372	354	3.7	-2.4	383.25	362.39	0.5395
1988	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	327	352	0.1	-3.4	325.65	378.39	0.4092
1988	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	4	11	1	0.281	254	320	-6.0	0.3	228.05	319.19	0.3128
1988	Los Angeles Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	325	369	-0.3	-3.3	319.25	376.79	0.3999
1988	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	6	10	0	0.375	231	332	-7.1	-0.2	210.45	327.19	0.2627
1988	Seattle Seahawks	sea	AFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	339	329	1.2	-2.0	343.25	355.99	0.4803
1988	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	16	12	4	0	0.750	312	215	0.0	6.6	324.05	218.39	0.7227
1988	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	16	4	12	0	0.250	220	313	-5.0	1.0	244.05	307.99	0.3677
1988	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	16	4	12	0	0.250	240	315	-3.9	0.6	261.65	314.39	0.3942
1988	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	16	11	5	0	0.688	406	233	6.5	4.3	428.05	255.19	0.7902
1988	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC Central	16	5	11	0	0.313	261	350	-1.9	-2.2	293.65	359.19	0.3803
1988	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	3	13	0	0.188	265	381	-3.8	-2.3	263.25	360.79	0.3182
1988	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	359	304	1.5	0.7	348.05	312.79	0.5699
1988	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	379	319	2.3	1.1	360.85	306.39	0.6046
1988	Phoenix Cardinals	crd	NFC East	16	7	9	0	0.438	344	398	0.5	-3.7	332.05	383.19	0.4131
1988	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	7	9	0	0.438	345	387	1.2	-3.4	343.25	378.39	0.4414
1988	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	16	5	11	0	0.313	244	315	-5.0	0.5	244.05	315.99	0.3531
1988	Los Angeles Rams	ram	NFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	407	293	5.6	0.9	413.65	309.59	0.6808
1988	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	312	283	-1.0	2.6	308.05	282.39	0.5562
1988	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	369	294	3.1	1.7	373.65	296.79	0.6442
1987	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	15	4	11	0	0.267	285	370	-1.8	-1.9	296.96	352.52	0.3952
1987	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC Central	15	10	5	0	0.667	390	239	5.4	5.6	404.96	240.02	0.7916
1987	Houston Oilers	oti	AFC Central	15	9	6	0	0.600	345	349	3.3	-1.1	373.46	340.52	0.5616
1987	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	15	8	7	0	0.533	285	299	-2.1	3.0	292.46	279.02	0.5309
1987	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	15	7	8	0	0.467	270	305	-2.7	2.3	283.46	289.52	0.4891
1987	Indianapolis Colts	clt	AFC East	15	9	6	0	0.600	300	238	-1.3	5.4	304.46	243.02	0.6356
1987	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	15	8	7	0	0.533	362	335	3.2	-1.1	371.96	340.52	0.5590
1987	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	15	8	7	0	0.533	320	293	0.4	2.5	329.96	286.52	0.5894
1987	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	15	6	9	0	0.400	334	360	1.2	-2.8	341.96	366.02	0.4582
1987	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	15	10	4	1	0.700	379	288	3.1	0.8	370.46	312.02	0.6103
1987	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	15	4	11	0	0.267	273	388	-3.2	-4.7	275.96	394.52	0.2886
1987	Los Angeles Raiders	rai	AFC West	15	5	10	0	0.333	301	289	-1.8	1.6	296.96	300.02	0.4957
1987	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	15	8	7	0	0.533	253	317	-4.2	0.6	260.96	315.02	0.3884
1987	Seattle Seahawks	sea	AFC West	15	9	6	0	0.600	371	314	2.3	-0.5	358.46	331.52	0.5521
1987	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	15	11	4	0	0.733	356	282	1.4	2.2	344.96	291.02	0.6076
1987	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	15	4	11	0	0.267	269	384	-4.5	-5.3	256.46	403.52	0.2421
1987	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	15	5	9	1	0.367	255	300	-5.4	1.8	242.96	297.02	0.3829
1987	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	15	8	7	0	0.533	336	335	-0.2	-2.6	320.96	363.02	0.4238
1987	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC Central	15	4	11	0	0.267	286	360	-3.0	-2.6	278.96	363.02	0.3417
1987	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	15	7	8	0	0.467	340	348	-0.2	-1.7	320.96	349.52	0.4479
1987	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	15	6	9	0	0.400	280	312	-2.9	2.1	280.46	292.52	0.4763
1987	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	15	7	8	0	0.467	337	380	1.2	-3.4	341.96	375.02	0.4425
1987	St. Louis Cardinals	crd	NFC East	15	7	8	0	0.467	362	368	2.3	-3.0	358.46	369.02	0.4832
1987	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	15	11	4	0	0.733	379	285	1.9	2.0	352.46	294.02	0.6147
1987	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	15	3	12	0	0.200	205	436	-7.9	-5.9	205.46	412.52	0.1509
1987	Los Angeles Rams	ram	NFC West	15	6	9	0	0.400	317	361	-0.5	-1.1	316.46	340.52	0.4557
1987	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	15	12	3	0	0.800	422	283	6.9	3.4	427.46	273.02	0.7628
1987	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	15	13	2	0	0.867	459	253	9.1	4.5	460.46	256.52	0.8223
1986	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	16	10	6	0	0.625	409	394	5.7	-4.2	419.46	395.46	0.5357
1986	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC Central	16	12	4	0	0.750	391	310	2.9	0.7	374.66	317.06	0.6011
1986	Houston Oilers	oti	AFC Central	16	5	11	0	0.313	274	329	-4.4	0.4	257.86	321.86	0.3658
1986	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	16	6	10	0	0.375	307	336	-1.3	0.3	307.46	323.46	0.4657
1986	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	4	12	0	0.250	287	348	-5.0	-0.8	248.26	341.06	0.3129
1986	Indianapolis Colts	clt	AFC East	16	3	13	0	0.188	229	400	-6.6	-3.8	222.66	389.06	0.1995
1986	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	430	405	6.2	-5.7	427.46	419.46	0.5096
1986	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	11	5	0	0.688	412	307	4.4	1.3	398.66	307.46	0.6565
1986	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	364	386	2.0	-3.3	360.26	381.06	0.4609
1986	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	11	5	0	0.688	378	327	3.4	1.8	382.66	299.46	0.6469
1986	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	358	326	1.2	-0.1	347.46	329.86	0.5297
1986	Los Angeles Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	323	346	0.0	0.2	328.26	325.06	0.5031
1986	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	4	12	0	0.250	335	396	1.2	-3.1	347.46	377.86	0.4435
1986	Seattle Seahawks	sea	AFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	366	293	2.4	4.0	366.66	264.26	0.6892
1986	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	16	14	2	0	0.875	352	187	-0.1	7.7	326.66	205.06	0.7481
1986	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	16	5	11	0	0.313	277	326	-3.8	-0.5	267.46	336.26	0.3605
1986	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	16	4	12	0	0.250	254	418	-4.0	-5.6	264.26	417.86	0.2364
1986	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	398	273	4.0	2.5	392.26	288.26	0.6820
1986	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC Central	16	2	14	0	0.125	239	473	-4.6	-10.8	254.66	501.06	0.1449
1986	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	7	9	0	0.438	346	337	3.0	-0.9	376.26	342.66	0.5565
1986	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	14	2	0	0.875	371	236	3.2	5.8	379.46	235.46	0.7608
1986	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	5	10	1	0.344	256	312	-2.9	1.4	281.86	305.86	0.4475
1986	St. Louis Cardinals	crd	NFC East	16	4	11	1	0.281	218	351	-6.5	-1.6	224.26	353.86	0.2459
1986	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	12	4	0	0.750	368	296	3.5	2.1	384.26	294.66	0.6583
1986	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	16	7	8	1	0.469	280	280	-2.8	2.3	283.46	291.46	0.4802
1986	Los Angeles Rams	ram	NFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	309	267	-1.1	2.9	310.66	281.86	0.5560
1986	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	288	287	-2.5	2.5	288.26	288.26	0.4970
1986	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	10	5	1	0.656	374	247	2.6	4.4	369.86	257.86	0.7062
1985	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	16	7	9	0	0.438	441	437	6.2	-6.9	443.61	454.92	0.4848
1985	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC Central	16	8	8	0	0.500	287	294	-4.7	3.4	269.21	290.12	0.4570
1985	Houston Oilers	oti	AFC Central	16	5	11	0	0.313	284	412	-4.9	-4.0	266.01	408.52	0.2554
1985	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	16	7	9	0	0.438	379	355	0.6	-1.1	354.01	362.12	0.4873
1985	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	2	14	0	0.125	200	381	-9.5	-0.2	192.41	347.72	0.1981
1985	Indianapolis Colts	clt	AFC East	16	5	11	0	0.313	320	386	-0.3	-2.4	339.61	382.92	0.4256
1985	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	12	4	0	0.750	428	320	6.1	0.9	442.01	330.12	0.6829
1985	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	11	5	0	0.688	362	290	2.0	3.8	376.41	283.72	0.6716
1985	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	11	5	0	0.688	393	264	3.8	5.2	405.21	261.32	0.7521
1985	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	11	5	0	0.688	380	329	1.8	1.9	373.21	314.12	0.6090
1985	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	6	10	0	0.375	317	360	-2.0	0.4	312.41	338.12	0.4526
1985	Los Angeles Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	12	4	0	0.750	354	308	0.7	3.7	355.61	285.32	0.6352
1985	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	467	435	8.3	-7.2	477.21	459.72	0.5272
1985	Seattle Seahawks	sea	AFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	349	303	0.3	4.1	349.21	278.92	0.6372
1985	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	16	15	1	0	0.938	456	198	6.5	9.4	448.41	194.12	0.8908
1985	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	16	7	9	0	0.438	307	366	-1.6	0.0	318.81	344.52	0.4534
1985	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	16	8	8	0	0.500	337	355	0.1	0.1	346.01	342.92	0.5074
1985	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	16	7	9	0	0.438	346	359	0.1	-1.3	346.01	365.32	0.4672
1985	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC Central	16	2	14	0	0.125	294	448	-1.9	-5.5	314.01	432.52	0.3063
1985	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	357	333	0.6	-0.3	354.01	349.32	0.5103
1985	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	399	283	2.1	1.8	378.01	315.72	0.6139
1985	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	7	9	0	0.438	286	310	-4.8	1.3	267.61	323.72	0.3879
1985	St. Louis Cardinals	crd	NFC East	16	5	11	0	0.313	278	414	-4.5	-5.6	272.41	434.12	0.2358
1985	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	297	312	-3.4	1.5	290.01	320.52	0.4407
1985	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	16	4	12	0	0.250	282	452	-2.1	-6.8	310.81	453.32	0.2748
1985	Los Angeles Rams	ram	NFC West	16	11	5	0	0.688	340	277	-1.0	3.6	328.41	286.92	0.5841
1985	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	16	5	11	0	0.313	294	401	-3.0	-3.9	296.41	406.92	0.3106
1985	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	411	263	4.6	4.2	418.01	277.32	0.7406
1984	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	16	8	8	0	0.500	339	339	-0.1	-1.0	337.70	355.36	0.4676
1984	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC Central	16	5	11	0	0.313	250	297	-6.1	2.3	241.70	302.56	0.3689
1984	Houston Oilers	oti	AFC Central	16	3	13	0	0.188	240	437	-5.9	-6.0	244.90	435.36	0.1897
1984	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	387	310	2.4	0.9	377.70	324.96	0.5942
1984	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	2	14	0	0.125	250	454	-5.3	-6.7	254.50	446.56	0.1932
1984	Indianapolis Colts	clt	AFC East	16	4	12	0	0.250	239	414	-7.4	-3.7	220.90	398.56	0.1892
1984	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	14	2	0	0.875	513	298	9.1	1.5	484.90	315.36	0.7554
1984	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	362	352	1.0	-1.1	355.30	356.96	0.4968
1984	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	7	9	0	0.438	332	364	-1.8	-2.7	310.50	382.56	0.3706
1984	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	13	3	0	0.813	353	241	1.0	6.7	355.30	232.16	0.7376
1984	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	314	324	-0.8	1.6	326.50	313.76	0.5245
1984	Los Angeles Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	11	5	0	0.688	368	278	2.1	4.8	372.90	262.56	0.7045
1984	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	394	413	4.8	-4.0	416.10	403.36	0.5203
1984	Seattle Seahawks	sea	AFC West	16	12	4	0	0.750	418	282	5.4	3.5	425.70	283.36	0.7380
1984	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	16	10	6	0	0.625	325	248	-1.7	6.4	312.10	236.96	0.6587
1984	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	16	4	11	1	0.281	283	408	-2.9	-3.4	292.90	393.76	0.3211
1984	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	16	8	8	0	0.500	390	309	2.9	2.1	385.70	305.76	0.6427
1984	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	16	3	13	0	0.188	276	484	-2.7	-8.2	296.10	470.56	0.2308
1984	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC Central	16	6	10	0	0.375	335	380	-0.2	-3.4	336.10	393.76	0.3996
1984	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	308	308	-1.4	2.4	316.90	300.96	0.5315
1984	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	299	301	-2.2	3.1	304.10	289.76	0.5292
1984	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	6	9	1	0.406	278	320	-4.3	1.9	270.50	308.96	0.4199
1984	St. Louis Cardinals	crd	NFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	423	345	6.2	-0.9	438.50	353.76	0.6367
1984	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	11	5	0	0.688	426	310	5.0	1.3	419.30	318.56	0.6695
1984	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	16	4	12	0	0.250	281	382	-3.7	-2.9	280.10	385.76	0.3092
1984	Los Angeles Rams	ram	NFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	346	316	1.0	1.3	355.30	318.56	0.5680
1984	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	298	361	-1.7	-1.2	312.10	358.56	0.4135
1984	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	15	1	0	0.938	475	227	7.4	5.4	457.70	252.96	0.8190
1983	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	16	7	9	0	0.438	346	302	-1.2	1.7	330.11	322.11	0.5211
1983	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	356	342	-0.9	-1.3	334.91	370.11	0.4426
1983	Houston Oilers	oti	AFC Central	16	2	14	0	0.125	288	460	-3.7	-7.9	290.11	475.71	0.2227
1983	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	16	10	6	0	0.625	355	303	-1.2	1.1	330.11	331.71	0.5028
1983	Baltimore Colts	clt	AFC East	16	7	9	0	0.438	264	354	-4.1	-2.7	283.71	392.51	0.3122
1983	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	283	351	-3.4	-0.4	294.91	355.71	0.3911
1983	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	12	4	0	0.750	389	250	2.6	5.2	390.91	266.11	0.7292
1983	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	274	289	-4.7	3.7	274.11	290.11	0.4717
1983	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	7	9	0	0.438	313	331	-1.9	0.7	318.91	338.11	0.4694
1983	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	302	327	-4.1	1.3	283.71	328.51	0.4167
1983	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	6	10	0	0.375	386	367	1.7	0.3	376.51	344.51	0.5624
1983	Los Angeles Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	12	4	0	0.750	442	338	5.1	1.7	430.91	322.11	0.6855
1983	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	6	10	0	0.375	358	462	1.1	-5.7	366.91	440.51	0.3879
1983	Seattle Seahawks	sea	AFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	403	397	3.4	-2.0	403.71	381.31	0.5430
1983	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	16	8	8	0	0.500	311	301	-2.5	1.5	309.31	325.31	0.4746
1983	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	347	286	-1.2	3.3	330.11	296.51	0.5717
1983	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	16	8	8	0	0.500	429	439	5.2	-7.1	432.51	462.91	0.4601
1983	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	16	8	8	0	0.500	316	348	-2.9	-0.1	302.91	350.91	0.4150
1983	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC Central	16	2	14	0	0.125	241	380	-7.5	-1.6	229.31	374.91	0.2366
1983	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	12	4	0	0.750	479	360	8.6	-0.1	486.91	350.91	0.7104
1983	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	3	12	1	0.219	267	347	-5.5	3.4	261.31	294.91	0.4338
1983	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	5	11	0	0.313	233	322	-6.7	3.6	242.11	291.71	0.3969
1983	St. Louis Cardinals	crd	NFC East	16	8	7	1	0.531	374	428	2.5	-3.6	389.31	406.91	0.4769
1983	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	14	2	0	0.875	541	332	11.7	2.2	536.51	314.11	0.8121
1983	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	370	389	2.9	-2.1	395.71	382.91	0.5272
1983	Los Angeles Rams	ram	NFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	361	344	2.0	0.9	381.31	334.91	0.5879
1983	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	319	337	-1.1	1.1	331.71	331.71	0.5058
1983	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	432	293	5.7	3.0	440.51	301.31	0.7326
1982	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	9	7	2	0	0.778	232	177	3.6	0.3	213.86	178.76	0.6166
1982	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC Central	9	4	5	0	0.444	140	182	-4.9	1.6	137.36	167.06	0.3903
1982	Houston Oilers	oti	AFC Central	9	1	8	0	0.111	136	245	-4.0	-7.2	145.46	246.26	0.2132
1982	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	9	6	3	0	0.667	204	146	3.5	1.9	212.96	164.36	0.6620
1982	Baltimore Colts	clt	AFC East	9	0	8	1	0.056	113	236	-6.0	-2.6	127.46	204.86	0.2443
1982	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	9	4	5	0	0.444	150	154	-1.9	3.4	164.36	150.86	0.5561
1982	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	9	7	2	0	0.778	198	131	2.7	5.8	205.76	129.26	0.7614
1982	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	9	5	4	0	0.556	143	157	-3.5	1.4	149.96	168.86	0.4338
1982	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	9	6	3	0	0.667	245	166	8.9	1.8	261.56	165.26	0.7714
1982	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	9	2	7	0	0.222	148	226	-6.1	-3.8	126.56	215.66	0.2178
1982	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	9	3	6	0	0.333	176	184	-1.8	1.7	165.26	166.16	0.5015
1982	Los Angeles Raiders	rai	AFC West	9	8	1	0	0.889	260	200	6.1	-0.8	236.36	188.66	0.6466
1982	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	9	6	3	0	0.667	288	221	10.7	-5.2	277.76	228.26	0.6343
1982	Seattle Seahawks	sea	AFC West	9	4	5	0	0.444	127	147	-7.5	2.0	113.96	163.46	0.3063
1982	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	9	3	6	0	0.333	141	174	-4.1	-1.2	144.56	192.26	0.3374
1982	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	9	4	5	0	0.444	181	176	-0.4	1.6	177.86	167.06	0.5432
1982	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	9	5	3	1	0.611	226	169	4.7	1.6	223.76	167.06	0.6819
1982	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	9	5	4	0	0.556	187	198	2.1	-1.0	200.36	190.46	0.5369
1982	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC Central	9	5	4	0	0.556	158	178	-0.5	1.2	176.96	170.66	0.5271
1982	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	9	6	3	0	0.667	226	145	5.1	2.9	227.36	155.36	0.7279
1982	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	9	4	5	0	0.444	164	160	-2.1	2.8	162.56	156.26	0.5286
1982	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	9	3	6	0	0.333	191	195	2.6	-2.1	204.86	200.36	0.5190
1982	St. Louis Cardinals	crd	NFC East	9	5	4	0	0.556	135	170	-4.1	1.4	144.56	168.86	0.4127
1982	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	9	8	1	0	0.889	190	128	2.2	5.1	201.26	135.56	0.7290
1982	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	9	5	4	0	0.556	183	199	-0.6	-3.4	176.06	212.06	0.3893
1982	Los Angeles Rams	ram	NFC West	9	2	7	0	0.222	200	250	0.8	-8.0	188.66	253.46	0.3210
1982	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	9	4	5	0	0.444	129	160	-5.8	1.8	129.26	165.26	0.3636
1982	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	9	3	6	0	0.333	209	206	0.2	-2.9	183.26	207.56	0.4266
1981	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	16	12	4	0	0.750	421	304	4.5	1.0	402.73	314.79	0.6482
1981	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC Central	16	5	11	0	0.313	276	375	-4.1	-2.4	265.13	369.19	0.3016
1981	Houston Oilers	oti	AFC Central	16	7	9	0	0.438	281	355	-3.1	-1.6	281.13	356.39	0.3529
1981	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	16	8	8	0	0.500	356	297	1.2	1.5	349.93	306.79	0.5774
1981	Baltimore Colts	clt	AFC East	16	2	14	0	0.125	259	533	-3.8	-12.0	269.93	522.79	0.1464
1981	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	311	276	-2.5	3.9	290.73	268.39	0.5438
1981	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	11	4	1	0.719	345	275	0.1	2.8	332.33	285.99	0.5873
1981	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	2	14	0	0.125	322	370	-0.6	-3.1	321.13	380.39	0.3900
1981	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	10	5	1	0.656	355	287	0.2	1.7	333.93	303.59	0.5547
1981	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	321	289	-1.6	2.9	305.13	284.39	0.5386
1981	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	343	290	0.4	2.8	337.13	285.99	0.5960
1981	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	273	343	-3.6	0.0	273.13	330.79	0.3808
1981	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	478	390	9.2	-4.7	477.93	405.99	0.6039
1981	Seattle Seahawks	sea	AFC West	16	6	10	0	0.375	322	388	-0.1	-3.2	329.13	381.99	0.4021
1981	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	16	6	10	0	0.375	253	324	-4.4	1.5	260.33	306.79	0.3982
1981	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	16	8	8	0	0.500	397	322	4.8	0.5	407.53	322.79	0.6411
1981	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	16	8	8	0	0.500	324	361	0.7	-2.3	341.93	367.59	0.4500
1981	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	16	7	9	0	0.438	325	369	0.0	-2.1	330.73	364.39	0.4348
1981	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	315	268	-1.4	4.4	308.33	260.39	0.5964
1981	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	12	4	0	0.750	367	277	2.9	3.2	377.13	279.59	0.6746
1981	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	295	257	-2.2	5.5	295.53	242.79	0.6108
1981	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	368	221	2.0	6.7	362.73	223.59	0.7601
1981	St. Louis Cardinals	crd	NFC East	16	7	9	0	0.438	315	408	0.1	-4.8	332.33	407.59	0.3675
1981	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	347	349	2.2	-1.2	365.93	349.99	0.5243
1981	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	426	355	6.5	-2.6	434.73	372.39	0.5963
1981	Los Angeles Rams	ram	NFC West	16	6	10	0	0.375	303	351	-1.4	-1.0	308.33	346.79	0.4230
1981	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	16	4	12	0	0.250	207	378	-7.2	-2.3	215.53	367.59	0.2108
1981	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	13	3	0	0.813	357	250	1.3	4.9	351.53	252.39	0.6883
1980	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	16	6	10	0	0.375	244	312	-4.5	0.8	255.61	314.81	0.3766
1980	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC Central	16	11	5	0	0.688	357	310	1.7	0.1	354.81	326.01	0.5529
1980	Houston Oilers	oti	AFC Central	16	11	5	0	0.688	295	251	-2.7	4.4	284.41	257.21	0.5593
1980	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	352	313	2.4	-0.1	366.01	329.21	0.5665
1980	Baltimore Colts	clt	AFC East	16	7	9	0	0.438	355	387	2.8	-4.3	372.41	396.41	0.4593
1980	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	11	5	0	0.688	320	260	-1.6	5.5	302.01	239.61	0.6342
1980	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	266	305	-4.6	3.1	254.01	278.01	0.4464
1980	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	441	325	6.8	-0.3	436.41	332.41	0.6695
1980	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	4	12	0	0.250	302	395	-1.5	-3.6	303.61	385.21	0.3536
1980	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	310	323	-1.1	1.6	310.01	302.01	0.5158
1980	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	319	336	-0.8	0.3	314.81	322.81	0.4842
1980	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	11	5	0	0.688	364	306	2.9	1.3	374.01	306.81	0.6221
1980	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	11	5	0	0.688	418	327	6.5	-0.4	431.61	334.01	0.6602
1980	Seattle Seahawks	sea	AFC West	16	4	12	0	0.250	291	408	-1.6	-3.7	302.01	386.81	0.3482
1980	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	16	7	9	0	0.438	304	264	-1.2	2.6	308.41	286.01	0.5456
1980	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	334	272	-0.8	2.5	314.81	287.61	0.5548
1980	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	16	5	10	1	0.344	231	371	-5.8	-3.2	234.81	378.81	0.2356
1980	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	317	308	0.0	-0.3	327.61	332.41	0.4906
1980	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC Central	16	5	10	1	0.344	271	341	-3.5	-1.6	271.61	353.21	0.3431
1980	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	12	4	0	0.750	454	311	7.8	0.1	452.41	326.01	0.7011
1980	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	4	12	0	0.250	249	425	-4.3	-5.5	258.81	415.61	0.2327
1980	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	12	4	0	0.750	384	222	2.9	6.8	374.01	218.81	0.7866
1980	St. Louis Cardinals	crd	NFC East	16	5	11	0	0.313	299	350	-1.7	-0.7	300.41	338.81	0.4256
1980	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	261	293	-4.4	3.3	257.21	274.81	0.4606
1980	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	16	12	4	0	0.750	405	272	4.5	3.4	399.61	273.21	0.7221
1980	Los Angeles Rams	ram	NFC West	16	11	5	0	0.688	424	289	4.4	2.1	398.01	294.01	0.6826
1980	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	16	1	15	0	0.063	291	487	-1.1	-9.4	310.01	478.01	0.2435
1980	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	6	10	0	0.375	320	415	-1.2	-5.1	308.41	409.21	0.3266
1979	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	16	4	12	0	0.250	337	421	3.1	-4.4	370.75	391.32	0.4667
1979	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC Central	16	9	7	0	0.563	359	352	2.9	0.1	367.55	319.32	0.5896
1979	Houston Oilers	oti	AFC Central	16	11	5	0	0.688	362	331	2.9	1.4	367.55	298.52	0.6292
1979	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	16	12	4	0	0.750	416	262	6.8	5.1	429.95	239.32	0.8149
1979	Baltimore Colts	clt	AFC East	16	5	11	0	0.313	271	351	-2.0	-1.5	289.15	344.92	0.3941
1979	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	7	9	0	0.438	268	279	-3.3	3.1	268.35	271.32	0.4951
1979	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	341	257	0.3	4.0	325.95	256.92	0.6422
1979	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	411	326	6.1	-1.1	418.75	338.52	0.6359
1979	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	337	383	1.1	-4.0	338.75	384.92	0.4206
1979	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	289	262	-1.6	5.7	295.55	229.72	0.6464
1979	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	238	262	-4.0	5.4	257.15	234.52	0.5550
1979	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	365	337	3.8	0.0	381.95	320.92	0.6105
1979	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	12	4	0	0.750	411	246	6.0	5.7	417.15	229.72	0.8170
1979	Seattle Seahawks	sea	AFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	378	372	4.9	-2.3	399.55	357.72	0.5727
1979	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	16	10	6	0	0.625	306	249	-2.2	2.1	285.95	287.32	0.4988
1979	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	16	2	14	0	0.125	219	365	-6.6	-4.4	215.55	391.32	0.1899
1979	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	16	5	11	0	0.313	246	316	-5.3	-1.5	236.35	344.92	0.2873
1979	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	16	7	9	0	0.438	259	337	-4.5	-3.1	249.15	370.52	0.2750
1979	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC Central	16	10	6	0	0.625	273	237	-4.6	1.8	247.55	292.12	0.4044
1979	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	11	5	0	0.688	371	313	3.0	0.3	369.15	316.12	0.5983
1979	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	237	323	-5.4	-0.8	234.75	333.72	0.3014
1979	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	11	5	0	0.688	339	282	0.3	2.4	325.95	282.52	0.5884
1979	St. Louis Cardinals	crd	NFC East	16	5	11	0	0.313	307	358	-0.7	-2.0	309.95	352.92	0.4211
1979	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	10	6	0	0.625	348	295	0.9	1.5	335.55	296.92	0.5768
1979	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	16	6	10	0	0.375	300	388	-1.9	-4.7	290.75	396.12	0.3157
1979	Los Angeles Rams	ram	NFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	323	309	-1.2	0.6	301.95	311.32	0.4829
1979	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	16	8	8	0	0.500	370	360	2.3	-3.5	357.95	376.92	0.4685
1979	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	2	14	0	0.125	308	416	-1.3	-6.1	300.35	418.52	0.3015
1978	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	16	4	12	0	0.250	252	284	-2.7	1.3	250.06	272.52	0.4499
1978	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC Central	16	8	8	0	0.500	334	356	2.5	-4.5	333.26	365.32	0.4425
1978	Houston Oilers	oti	AFC Central	16	10	6	0	0.625	283	298	-0.6	0.2	283.66	290.12	0.4869
1978	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	16	14	2	0	0.875	356	195	2.6	5.6	334.86	203.72	0.7660
1978	Baltimore Colts	clt	AFC East	16	5	11	0	0.313	239	421	-2.8	-6.0	248.46	389.32	0.2476
1978	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	16	5	11	0	0.313	302	354	-0.1	-3.2	291.66	344.52	0.3987
1978	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	16	11	5	0	0.688	372	254	4.2	3.3	360.46	240.52	0.7295
1978	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	16	11	5	0	0.688	358	286	3.6	1.4	350.86	270.92	0.6547
1978	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	359	364	4.4	-3.3	363.66	346.12	0.5320
1978	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	16	10	6	0	0.625	282	198	-1.9	6.9	262.86	182.92	0.6955
1978	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	16	4	12	0	0.250	243	327	-3.0	-1.4	245.26	315.72	0.3533
1978	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	311	283	1.6	1.1	318.86	275.72	0.5882
1978	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	355	309	4.6	-0.9	366.86	307.72	0.6093
1978	Seattle Seahawks	sea	AFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	345	358	3.4	-3.7	347.66	352.52	0.4917
1978	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	16	7	9	0	0.438	253	274	-2.7	0.3	250.06	288.52	0.4162
1978	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	16	7	9	0	0.438	290	300	-0.1	-1.7	291.66	320.52	0.4429
1978	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	16	8	7	1	0.531	249	269	-2.2	1.6	258.06	267.72	0.4788
1978	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	16	8	7	1	0.531	294	306	1.0	-1.1	309.26	310.92	0.4972
1978	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC Central	16	5	11	0	0.313	241	259	-4.1	0.8	227.66	280.52	0.3805
1978	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	16	12	4	0	0.750	384	208	5.8	5.2	386.06	210.12	0.8158
1978	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	264	298	-1.1	-1.3	275.66	314.12	0.4217
1978	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	16	9	7	0	0.563	270	250	-1.1	3.4	275.66	238.92	0.5839
1978	St. Louis Cardinals	crd	NFC East	16	6	10	0	0.375	248	296	-2.6	0.0	251.66	293.32	0.4101
1978	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	16	8	8	0	0.500	273	283	-1.1	0.7	275.66	282.12	0.4866
1978	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	16	9	7	0	0.563	240	290	-3.7	-0.9	234.06	307.72	0.3430
1978	Los Angeles Rams	ram	NFC West	16	12	4	0	0.750	316	245	1.3	1.9	314.06	262.92	0.6065
1978	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	16	7	9	0	0.438	281	298	-0.5	-1.2	285.26	312.52	0.4450
1978	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	16	2	14	0	0.125	219	350	-4.6	-4.5	219.66	365.32	0.2257
1977	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	14	8	6	0	0.571	238	235	0.6	1.6	248.86	218.06	0.5811
1977	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC Central	14	6	8	0	0.429	269	267	2.4	0.1	274.06	239.06	0.5856
1977	Houston Oilers	oti	AFC Central	14	8	6	0	0.571	299	230	4.4	2.3	302.06	208.26	0.7148
1977	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	14	9	5	0	0.643	283	243	3.9	2.3	295.06	208.26	0.7023
1977	Baltimore Colts	clt	AFC East	14	10	4	0	0.714	295	221	3.6	1.5	290.86	219.46	0.6679
1977	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	14	3	11	0	0.214	160	313	-4.3	-3.7	180.26	292.26	0.2437
1977	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	14	10	4	0	0.714	313	197	4.4	3.5	302.06	191.46	0.7531
1977	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	14	9	5	0	0.643	278	217	2.5	1.5	275.46	219.46	0.6369
1977	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	14	3	11	0	0.214	191	300	-3.8	-2.0	187.26	268.46	0.3027
1977	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	14	12	2	0	0.857	274	148	1.9	9.4	267.06	108.86	0.8862
1977	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	14	2	12	0	0.143	225	349	0.9	-5.8	253.06	321.66	0.3578
1977	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	14	11	3	0	0.786	351	230	8.8	1.6	363.66	218.06	0.7861
1977	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	14	7	7	0	0.500	222	205	-1.4	5.2	220.86	167.66	0.6548
1977	Seattle Seahawks	sea	AFC West	14	5	9	0	0.357	282	373	4.2	-8.6	299.26	360.86	0.3846
1977	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	14	9	5	0	0.643	255	253	0.0	-3.6	240.46	290.86	0.3888
1977	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	14	6	8	0	0.429	183	252	-4.4	-3.0	178.86	282.46	0.2565
1977	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	14	4	10	0	0.286	134	219	-9.1	0.4	113.06	234.86	0.1693
1977	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	14	9	5	0	0.643	231	227	-1.0	-0.6	226.46	248.86	0.4473
1977	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	NFC Central	14	2	12	0	0.143	103	223	-11.1	0.3	85.06	236.26	0.1020
1977	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	14	12	2	0	0.857	345	212	7.6	0.2	346.86	237.66	0.7242
1977	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	14	5	9	0	0.357	181	265	-4.0	-2.2	184.46	271.26	0.2903
1977	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	14	5	9	0	0.357	220	207	-2.5	1.9	205.46	213.86	0.4802
1977	St. Louis Cardinals	crd	NFC East	14	7	7	0	0.500	272	287	2.6	-4.0	276.86	296.46	0.4607
1977	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	14	9	5	0	0.643	196	189	-3.1	2.6	197.06	204.06	0.4834
1977	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	14	7	7	0	0.500	179	129	-6.1	6.6	155.06	148.06	0.5279
1977	Los Angeles Rams	ram	NFC West	14	10	4	0	0.714	302	146	3.8	4.6	293.66	176.06	0.7748
1977	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	14	3	11	0	0.214	232	336	0.3	-9.4	244.66	372.06	0.2595
1977	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	14	5	9	0	0.357	220	260	-1.1	-2.7	225.06	278.26	0.3778
1976	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	14	10	4	0	0.714	335	210	5.0	5.1	338.14	196.69	0.7840
1976	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC Central	14	9	5	0	0.643	267	287	0.7	-2.4	277.94	301.69	0.4419
1976	Houston Oilers	oti	AFC Central	14	5	9	0	0.357	222	273	-2.7	1.0	230.34	254.09	0.4346
1976	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	14	10	4	0	0.714	342	138	5.7	9.6	347.94	133.69	0.9010
1976	Baltimore Colts	clt	AFC East	14	11	3	0	0.786	417	246	9.3	0.4	398.34	262.49	0.7394
1976	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	14	2	12	0	0.143	245	363	-2.5	-6.7	233.14	361.89	0.2413
1976	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	14	6	8	0	0.429	263	264	-1.8	1.7	242.94	244.29	0.4898
1976	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	14	11	3	0	0.786	376	236	6.5	2.2	359.14	237.29	0.7330
1976	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	14	3	11	0	0.214	169	383	-7.1	-6.8	168.74	363.29	0.1254
1976	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	14	9	5	0	0.643	315	206	2.5	4.4	303.14	206.49	0.7105
1976	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	14	5	9	0	0.357	290	376	2.2	-6.9	298.94	364.69	0.3672
1976	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	14	13	1	0	0.929	350	237	6.3	2.2	356.34	237.29	0.7289
1976	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	14	6	8	0	0.429	248	285	-1.7	0.5	244.34	261.09	0.4531
1976	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	AFC West	14	0	14	0	0.000	125	412	-10.8	-8.8	116.94	391.29	0.0439
1976	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	14	7	7	0	0.500	253	216	0.3	4.2	272.34	209.29	0.6456
1976	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	14	6	8	0	0.429	262	220	-0.6	3.4	259.74	220.49	0.5898
1976	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	14	5	9	0	0.357	218	299	-2.5	-2.0	233.14	296.09	0.3508
1976	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	14	11	2	1	0.821	305	176	3.7	5.7	319.94	188.29	0.7765
1976	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	14	11	3	0	0.786	296	194	0.5	4.0	275.14	212.09	0.6444
1976	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	14	3	11	0	0.214	170	250	-5.5	2.1	191.14	238.69	0.3667
1976	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	14	4	10	0	0.286	165	286	-7.3	-1.4	165.94	287.69	0.2077
1976	St. Louis Cardinals	crd	NFC East	14	10	4	0	0.714	309	267	3.5	-1.0	317.14	282.09	0.5665
1976	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	14	10	4	0	0.714	291	217	1.2	1.8	284.94	242.89	0.5896
1976	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	14	4	10	0	0.286	172	312	-6.7	-3.5	174.34	317.09	0.1849
1976	Los Angeles Rams	ram	NFC West	14	10	3	1	0.750	351	190	5.9	4.5	350.74	205.09	0.7840
1976	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	14	4	10	0	0.286	253	346	-0.6	-5.5	259.74	345.09	0.3207
1976	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	14	8	6	0	0.571	270	190	-1.3	5.0	249.94	198.09	0.6264
1976	Seattle Seahawks	sea	NFC West	14	2	12	0	0.143	229	429	-2.2	-12.9	237.34	448.69	0.1525
1975	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	14	11	3	0	0.786	340	246	4.0	2.9	344.27	247.56	0.6979
1975	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC Central	14	3	11	0	0.214	218	372	-2.6	-4.2	251.87	346.96	0.3097
1975	Houston Oilers	oti	AFC Central	14	10	4	0	0.714	293	226	1.2	5.2	305.07	215.36	0.7019
1975	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	14	12	2	0	0.857	373	162	5.4	8.8	363.87	164.96	0.8755
1975	Baltimore Colts	clt	AFC East	14	10	4	0	0.714	395	269	6.3	2.2	376.47	257.36	0.7274
1975	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	14	8	6	0	0.571	420	355	10.4	-3.4	433.87	335.76	0.6671
1975	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	14	10	4	0	0.714	357	222	3.3	6.0	334.47	204.16	0.7725
1975	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	14	3	11	0	0.214	258	358	-2.3	-2.0	256.07	316.16	0.3729
1975	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	14	3	11	0	0.214	258	433	-1.2	-7.1	271.47	387.56	0.2864
1975	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	14	6	8	0	0.429	254	307	-2.7	-0.7	250.47	297.96	0.3959
1975	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	14	5	9	0	0.357	282	341	-0.6	-3.7	279.87	339.96	0.3801
1975	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	14	11	3	0	0.786	375	255	5.5	1.3	365.27	269.96	0.6860
1975	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	14	2	12	0	0.143	189	345	-6.0	-3.4	204.27	335.76	0.2289
1975	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	14	4	10	0	0.286	191	379	-4.9	-6.6	219.67	380.56	0.2012
1975	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	14	7	7	0	0.500	245	262	-3.2	1.3	243.47	269.96	0.4391
1975	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	14	4	10	0	0.286	226	285	-3.3	-0.9	242.07	300.76	0.3708
1975	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	14	12	2	0	0.857	377	180	3.5	5.4	337.27	212.56	0.7594
1975	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	14	10	4	0	0.714	350	268	4.0	0.1	344.27	286.76	0.6163
1975	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	14	5	9	0	0.357	216	306	-6.2	-0.6	201.47	296.56	0.2839
1975	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	14	4	10	0	0.286	225	302	-4.0	-0.6	232.27	296.56	0.3562
1975	St. Louis Cardinals	crd	NFC East	14	11	3	0	0.786	356	276	3.4	0.1	335.87	286.76	0.6009
1975	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	14	8	6	0	0.571	325	276	2.6	0.2	324.67	285.36	0.5826
1975	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	14	4	10	0	0.286	240	289	-2.7	-0.8	250.47	299.36	0.3930
1975	Los Angeles Rams	ram	NFC West	14	12	2	0	0.857	312	135	0.5	8.7	295.27	166.36	0.7970
1975	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	14	2	12	0	0.143	165	360	-8.2	-5.9	173.47	370.76	0.1347
1975	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	14	5	9	0	0.357	255	286	-2.2	-2.5	257.47	323.16	0.3629
1974	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	14	7	7	0	0.500	283	259	1.9	0.2	281.14	251.74	0.5704
1974	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC Central	14	4	10	0	0.286	251	344	0.5	-4.7	261.54	320.34	0.3787
1974	Houston Oilers	oti	AFC Central	14	7	7	0	0.500	236	282	-1.3	-0.6	236.34	262.94	0.4391
1974	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	14	10	3	1	0.750	305	189	2.3	4.5	286.74	191.54	0.7270
1974	Baltimore Colts	clt	AFC East	14	2	12	0	0.143	190	329	-4.6	-4.1	190.14	311.94	0.2352
1974	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	14	9	5	0	0.643	264	244	-0.3	1.4	250.34	234.94	0.5411
1974	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	14	11	3	0	0.786	327	216	3.9	2.3	309.14	222.34	0.6948
1974	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	14	7	7	0	0.500	348	289	6.6	-1.8	346.94	279.74	0.6372
1974	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	14	7	7	0	0.500	279	300	1.1	-3.7	269.94	306.34	0.4247
1974	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	14	7	6	1	0.536	302	294	3.4	-2.8	302.14	293.74	0.5209
1974	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	14	5	9	0	0.357	233	293	-1.3	-1.1	236.34	269.94	0.4233
1974	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	14	12	2	0	0.857	355	228	6.4	2.7	344.14	216.74	0.7624
1974	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	14	5	9	0	0.357	212	285	-3.5	-1.3	205.54	272.74	0.3403
1974	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	14	4	10	0	0.286	152	279	-7.4	-2.9	150.94	295.14	0.1747
1974	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	14	7	7	0	0.500	256	270	0.5	-2.1	261.54	283.94	0.4526
1974	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	14	6	8	0	0.429	210	206	-3.2	2.0	209.74	226.54	0.4582
1974	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	14	10	4	0	0.714	310	195	3.6	2.5	304.94	219.54	0.6937
1974	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	14	8	6	0	0.571	297	235	4.0	1.9	310.54	227.94	0.6846
1974	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	14	2	12	0	0.143	195	299	-3.5	-2.1	205.54	283.94	0.3182
1974	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	14	7	7	0	0.500	242	217	0.0	3.0	254.54	212.54	0.6085
1974	St. Louis Cardinals	crd	NFC East	14	10	4	0	0.714	285	218	2.8	3.0	293.74	212.54	0.6896
1974	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	14	10	4	0	0.714	320	196	5.7	4.5	334.34	191.54	0.7992
1974	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	14	3	11	0	0.214	111	271	-9.7	-2.6	118.74	290.94	0.1161
1974	Los Angeles Rams	ram	NFC West	14	10	4	0	0.714	263	181	-0.1	4.0	253.14	198.54	0.6424
1974	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	14	5	9	0	0.357	166	263	-5.7	-1.7	174.74	278.34	0.2533
1974	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	14	6	8	0	0.429	226	236	-2.1	-0.5	225.14	261.54	0.4142
1973	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	14	10	4	0	0.714	286	231	0.1	2.9	273.69	231.75	0.5939
1973	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC Central	14	7	5	2	0.571	234	255	-2.7	1.3	234.49	254.15	0.4463
1973	Houston Oilers	oti	AFC Central	14	1	13	0	0.071	199	447	-4.4	-12.4	210.69	445.95	0.1205
1973	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	14	10	4	0	0.714	347	210	4.2	3.5	331.09	223.35	0.7207
1973	Baltimore Colts	clt	AFC East	14	4	10	0	0.286	226	341	-2.4	-5.9	238.69	354.95	0.2635
1973	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	14	9	5	0	0.643	259	230	-1.7	2.2	248.49	241.55	0.5115
1973	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	14	12	2	0	0.857	343	150	5.1	8.3	343.69	156.15	0.8650
1973	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	14	5	9	0	0.357	258	300	-2.5	-3.4	237.29	319.95	0.3172
1973	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	14	4	10	0	0.286	240	306	-1.5	-1.3	251.29	290.55	0.4061
1973	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	14	7	5	2	0.571	354	296	5.4	-2.5	347.89	307.35	0.5738
1973	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	14	7	5	2	0.571	231	192	-4.2	5.1	213.49	200.95	0.5293
1973	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	14	9	4	1	0.679	292	175	0.0	6.6	272.29	179.95	0.7208
1973	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	14	2	11	1	0.179	188	386	-3.7	-8.4	220.49	389.95	0.1851
1973	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	14	3	11	0	0.214	195	334	-4.4	-4.4	210.69	333.95	0.2376
1973	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	14	6	7	1	0.464	271	247	0.8	1.2	283.49	255.55	0.5580
1973	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	14	5	7	2	0.429	202	259	-5.0	0.2	202.29	269.55	0.3300
1973	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	14	12	2	0	0.857	296	168	1.7	6.9	296.09	175.75	0.7704
1973	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	14	10	4	0	0.714	382	203	6.8	6.0	367.49	188.35	0.8343
1973	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	14	2	11	1	0.179	226	362	-2.8	-4.7	233.09	338.15	0.2777
1973	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	14	5	8	1	0.393	310	393	3.5	-7.7	321.29	380.15	0.3859
1973	St. Louis Cardinals	crd	NFC East	14	4	9	1	0.321	286	365	1.8	-5.1	297.49	343.75	0.4028
1973	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	14	10	4	0	0.714	325	198	1.2	6.1	289.09	186.95	0.7334
1973	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	14	9	5	0	0.643	318	224	2.3	3.6	304.49	221.95	0.6787
1973	Los Angeles Rams	ram	NFC West	14	12	2	0	0.857	388	178	8.1	5.2	385.69	199.55	0.8340
1973	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	14	5	9	0	0.357	163	312	-7.0	-1.7	174.29	296.15	0.2153
1973	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	14	5	9	0	0.357	262	319	1.4	-1.6	291.89	294.75	0.4884
1972	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	14	8	6	0	0.571	299	229	1.2	3.0	300.34	241.59	0.6239
1972	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC Central	14	10	4	0	0.714	268	249	-1.6	1.9	261.14	256.99	0.5028
1972	Houston Oilers	oti	AFC Central	14	1	13	0	0.071	164	380	-7.1	-5.9	184.14	366.19	0.1475
1972	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	14	11	3	0	0.786	343	175	3.4	6.6	331.14	191.19	0.7856
1972	Baltimore Colts	clt	AFC East	14	5	9	0	0.357	235	252	-5.1	2.8	212.14	244.39	0.4102
1972	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	14	4	9	1	0.321	257	377	-1.6	-5.6	261.14	361.99	0.2961
1972	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	14	14	0	0	1.000	385	171	4.5	6.5	346.54	192.59	0.8023
1972	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	14	3	11	0	0.214	192	446	-6.3	-11.1	195.34	438.99	0.1047
1972	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	14	7	7	0	0.500	367	324	4.7	-4.2	349.34	342.39	0.5061
1972	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	14	5	9	0	0.357	325	350	2.9	-4.7	324.14	349.39	0.4444
1972	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	14	8	6	0	0.571	287	254	0.4	2.2	289.14	252.79	0.5750
1972	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	14	10	3	1	0.750	365	248	5.0	3.0	353.54	241.59	0.7161
1972	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	14	4	9	1	0.321	264	344	-0.2	-2.6	280.74	319.99	0.4111
1972	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	14	4	9	1	0.321	225	275	-2.8	1.5	244.34	262.59	0.4495
1972	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	14	8	5	1	0.607	339	290	4.4	0.0	345.14	283.59	0.6159
1972	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	14	10	4	0	0.714	304	226	2.3	4.7	315.74	217.79	0.7063
1972	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	14	7	7	0	0.500	301	252	2.6	3.4	319.94	235.99	0.6731
1972	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	14	10	4	0	0.714	319	240	3.4	2.7	331.14	245.79	0.6712
1972	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	14	8	6	0	0.571	331	247	3.5	2.4	332.54	249.99	0.6646
1972	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	14	2	11	1	0.179	145	352	-9.2	-5.3	154.74	357.79	0.1084
1972	St. Louis Cardinals	crd	NFC East	14	4	9	1	0.321	193	303	-4.5	-1.2	220.54	300.39	0.3130
1972	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	14	11	3	0	0.786	336	218	2.7	3.7	321.34	231.79	0.6849
1972	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	14	7	7	0	0.500	269	274	-2.3	0.4	251.34	277.99	0.4316
1972	Los Angeles Rams	ram	NFC West	14	6	7	1	0.464	291	286	0.1	-0.6	284.94	291.99	0.4777
1972	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	14	2	11	1	0.179	215	361	-5.3	-5.0	209.34	353.59	0.2066
1972	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	14	8	5	1	0.607	353	249	4.9	1.5	352.14	262.59	0.6712
1971	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	14	4	10	0	0.286	284	265	-0.4	-0.1	265.37	272.64	0.4793
1971	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC Central	14	9	5	0	0.643	285	273	1.1	-0.8	286.37	282.44	0.5046
1971	Houston Oilers	oti	AFC Central	14	4	9	1	0.321	251	330	-3.0	-3.8	228.97	324.44	0.2927
1971	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	14	6	8	0	0.429	246	292	-1.8	-1.8	245.77	296.44	0.3825
1971	Baltimore Colts	clt	AFC East	14	10	4	0	0.714	313	140	2.0	8.5	298.97	152.24	0.8264
1971	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	14	1	13	0	0.071	184	394	-4.5	-8.9	207.97	395.84	0.1600
1971	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	14	10	3	1	0.750	315	174	2.4	5.3	304.57	197.04	0.7372
1971	New England Patriots	nwe	AFC East	14	6	8	0	0.429	238	325	-2.1	-3.0	241.57	313.24	0.3404
1971	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	14	6	8	0	0.429	212	299	-3.7	-1.6	219.17	293.64	0.3254
1971	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	14	4	9	1	0.321	203	275	-5.5	1.0	193.97	257.24	0.3356
1971	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	14	10	3	1	0.750	302	208	0.6	4.5	279.37	208.24	0.6653
1971	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	14	8	4	2	0.643	344	278	4.8	-1.1	338.17	286.64	0.5999
1971	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	14	6	8	0	0.429	311	341	2.6	-6.6	307.37	363.64	0.3885
1971	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	14	6	8	0	0.429	185	276	-4.4	1.1	209.37	255.84	0.3793
1971	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	14	7	6	1	0.536	341	286	6.5	-2.4	361.97	304.84	0.6055
1971	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	14	4	8	2	0.357	274	298	1.4	-2.3	290.57	303.44	0.4687
1971	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	14	11	3	0	0.786	245	139	-3.4	9.9	223.37	132.64	0.7568
1971	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	14	11	3	0	0.786	406	222	8.3	1.6	387.17	248.84	0.7523
1971	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	14	4	10	0	0.286	228	362	-1.7	-6.3	247.17	359.44	0.2751
1971	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	14	6	7	1	0.464	221	302	-2.7	-1.6	233.17	293.64	0.3586
1971	St. Louis Cardinals	crd	NFC East	14	4	9	1	0.321	231	279	-4.0	-0.2	214.97	274.04	0.3542
1971	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	14	9	4	1	0.679	276	190	-0.6	5.8	262.57	190.04	0.6777
1971	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	14	7	6	1	0.536	274	277	0.3	1.0	275.17	257.24	0.5372
1971	Los Angeles Rams	ram	NFC West	14	8	5	1	0.607	313	260	4.2	2.4	329.77	237.64	0.6894
1971	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	14	4	8	2	0.357	266	347	1.4	-4.1	290.57	328.64	0.4182
1971	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	14	9	5	0	0.643	300	216	2.4	3.8	304.57	218.04	0.6893
1970	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	AFC Central	14	8	6	0	0.571	312	255	1.2	-0.6	286.47	278.12	0.5201
1970	Cleveland Browns	cle	AFC Central	14	7	7	0	0.500	286	265	0.5	0.1	276.67	268.32	0.5206
1970	Houston Oilers	oti	AFC Central	14	3	10	1	0.250	217	352	-3.5	-5.8	220.67	350.92	0.2408
1970	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	AFC Central	14	5	9	0	0.357	210	272	-5.9	-1.5	187.07	290.72	0.2604
1970	Baltimore Colts	clt	AFC East	14	11	2	1	0.821	321	234	0.9	-0.5	282.27	276.72	0.5140
1970	Boston Patriots	nwe	AFC East	14	2	12	0	0.143	149	361	-9.1	-6.8	142.27	364.92	0.0943
1970	Buffalo Bills	buf	AFC East	14	3	10	1	0.250	204	337	-5.8	-6.5	188.47	360.72	0.1691
1970	Miami Dolphins	mia	AFC East	14	10	4	0	0.714	297	228	-1.3	0.0	251.47	269.72	0.4591
1970	New York Jets	nyj	AFC East	14	4	10	0	0.286	255	286	-2.2	-2.7	238.87	307.52	0.3507
1970	Denver Broncos	den	AFC West	14	5	8	1	0.393	253	264	-2.5	-0.1	234.67	271.12	0.4152
1970	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	AFC West	14	7	5	2	0.571	272	244	-0.1	1.6	268.27	247.32	0.5510
1970	Oakland Raiders	rai	AFC West	14	8	4	2	0.643	300	293	2.3	-1.3	301.87	287.92	0.5314
1970	San Diego Chargers	sdg	AFC West	14	5	6	3	0.464	282	278	0.5	-1.2	276.67	286.52	0.4800
1970	Chicago Bears	chi	NFC Central	14	6	8	0	0.429	256	261	0.4	1.8	275.27	244.52	0.5734
1970	Detroit Lions	det	NFC Central	14	10	4	0	0.714	347	202	7.4	6.6	373.27	177.32	0.8647
1970	Green Bay Packers	gnb	NFC Central	14	6	8	0	0.429	196	293	-2.4	0.6	236.07	261.32	0.4407
1970	Minnesota Vikings	min	NFC Central	14	12	2	0	0.857	335	143	5.9	9.2	352.27	140.92	0.9024
1970	Dallas Cowboys	dal	NFC East	14	10	4	0	0.714	299	221	2.5	4.5	304.67	206.72	0.7212
1970	New York Giants	nyg	NFC East	14	9	5	0	0.643	301	270	1.9	0.1	296.27	268.32	0.5630
1970	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	NFC East	14	3	10	1	0.250	241	332	-0.9	-3.6	257.07	320.12	0.3678
1970	St. Louis Cardinals	crd	NFC East	14	8	5	1	0.607	325	228	3.8	3.6	322.87	219.32	0.7234
1970	Washington Redskins	was	NFC East	14	6	8	0	0.429	297	314	3.6	-0.6	320.07	278.12	0.5894
1970	Atlanta Falcons	atl	NFC West	14	4	8	2	0.357	206	261	-3.5	1.2	220.67	252.92	0.4211
1970	Los Angeles Rams	ram	NFC West	14	9	4	1	0.679	325	202	4.4	5.3	331.27	195.52	0.7858
1970	New Orleans Saints	nor	NFC West	14	2	11	1	0.179	172	347	-4.6	-3.3	205.27	315.92	0.2606
1970	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	NFC West	14	10	3	1	0.750	352	267	6.4	0.1	359.27	268.32	0.6799

Now, as an aside, I wouldn’t go plugging those directly into the log5 formula to predict this weekend’s games just yet. You first need to regress to the mean to account for the uncertainty we see in any observed result. To do that, just add about 17.65 games of .500 performance to each team’s pythagorean Wpct, and you’ll get a “true talent” number that should yield more accurate probabilities regarding future outcomes.

{ 6 comments }

Post your Playoff Predictions

by Chase Stuart on January 4, 2013

in Current Events

Before the playoffs start, I figured I should write down my predictions somewhere. I encourage everyone to post that predictions in the comments. Here are mine:

Wild Card Round
Saturday, Jan. 5, 4:30 p.m.: Bengals at Texans — Texans
Saturday, Jan. 5, 8:00 p.m.: Vikings at Packers — Packers
Sunday, Jan. 6, 1:00 p.m.: Colts at Ravens — Ravens
Sunday, Jan. 6, 4:30 p.m.: Seahawks at Redskins– Seahawks

Divisional Round
Saturday, Jan. 12, 4:30 p.m.: Ravens/ Colts/ Bengals at Broncos — Broncos
Saturday, Jan. 12, 8 p.m.: Packers/ Redskins/ Seahawks at 49ers — 49ers
Sunday, Jan. 13, 1 p.m.: Redskins/ Seahawks/ Vikings at Falcons — Seahawks
Sunday, Jan. 13, 4:30 p.m.: Texans/ Ravens/ Colts at Patriots — Patriots

Conference Championship Round
Sunday, Jan. 21: 3:00 p.m.: Seahawks at 49ers — 49ers
Sunday, Jan. 21: 6:30 p.m.: Patriots at Broncos — Broncos

Super Bowl
Sunday, Feb. 3, 2013 – 6:30 p.m.: Broncos vs. 49ers — Broncos

{ 11 comments }

Season in review: AFC and NFC North

by Chase Stuart on January 3, 2013

in Review, Uncategorized

On Monday, I examined the seasons of the teams in the AFC and NFC East. Today I will do the same for the AFC and NFC North, starting in the AFC.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Pre-season Projection: 10 wins
Maximum wins: 11 wins (after weeks 2, 5, and 9)
Minimum wins: 8 (after week 16)
Week 1 comment: Sunday Night was one of the best games I’ve seen from Ben Roethlisberger. An elite team that will be favored to win most weeks, although questions remain about the offensive line, the running backs, and the age of the defense.

Pittsburgh started off 6-3 and looked like a contender, but tanked in the second half of the season once Roethlisberger went down. Even when Roethlisberger returned, the offense never quite looked right. Jonathan Dwyer, Isaac Redman, and Rashard Mendenhall were unexciting plodders, which is an improvement over the 25 carries that went to Baron Batch. No Steeler finished the season with more than two rushing touchdowns. In the passing game, Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown both failed to match last year’s lofty numbers. The potential was there, but the results were not in Pittsburgh in 2012.

On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh’s defense performed well by conventional measures — through week 16 (which is when they were knocked out of the playoff race), they ranked 1st in yards allowed and first downs allowed, and ranked 2nd in net yards per attempt allowed, rushing yards and rushing yards per carry allowed. But the defense wasn’t really up to Steelers standards — through week 16, they ranked 10th in points allowed and, more damningly, had forced more turnovers than just three teams. Pittsburgh allowed 5 4th quarter game-winning drives, which ultimately cost them the playoffs.

Baltimore Ravens

Pre-season Projection: 10 wins
Maximum wins: 11 wins (first after week 3, last after week 13)
Minimum wins: 9 wins (after week 15)
Week 1 comment: Great performance on Monday Night, but I have to imagine missing Terrell Suggs is going to hurt this team. He’s too good to simply expect business as usual in Baltimore, and their schedule (AFC West, NFC East, Houston, New England outside the division) is riddled with traps.

The schedule was riddled with traps, but the Ravens rode some late-game success and excellent special teams to a 9-2 record. At that point, I wrote: I still don’t believe in this team, because they aren’t going to have amazing special teams or amazing 4th and 29 conversions every week.

Joe Flacco had a solid but not great year, while Ray Rice continued to prove effective when given the carries. The big issue for Baltimore was defensively. Through 16 weeks, the Ravens ranked 20th in yards allowed, 18th in NY/A, and 24th in first downs allowed. While the Ravens won the North, 8 games out of Terrell Suggs, 6 games of Ray Lewis, and 6 games of Lardarius Webb simply wasn’t enough to give them the defense Ravens fans were used to seeing.
[continue reading…]

Tagged as: AFC North, Bears, Bengals, Browns, Lions, NFC North, Packers, Ravens, Steelers, Vikings

{ 0 comments }

NYT Fifth Down: Post-week 17

by Chase Stuart on January 2, 2013

in Checkdowns, NYT

At the New York Times Fifth Down Blog this week, I explain my choices for the major awards this season.

Offensive Player of the Year: Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings

Generally, the Most Valuable Player award is given to the best quarterback, while the Offensive Player of the Year is usually the player with the most impressive statistics. In the last five years, Tom Brady — first in 2007, and then again in 2010 — is the only player to take home both awards in the same season. Last year, Drew Brees won the award while Aaron Rodgers took home the M.V.P., but running backs Priest Holmes (2002), Jamal Lewis (2003), Shaun Alexander (2005), LaDainian Tomlinson (2006), and Chris Johnson (2009) have all won the award in the last decade. While Calvin Johnson will probably get some support for breaking Jerry Rice’s single-season record for receiving yards, Adrian Peterson has had this award locked up for a month, and finishing the season with 2,097 yards was the icing on the cake.

I don’t think you’ll find too many people arguing about this one. Peterson’s story is outstanding, and it’s hard to argue that he didn’t provide the single most impressive performance by an offensive player this year. Quarterbacks may be more valuable, but it’s hard not to just sit back and admire what Peterson’s done. Johnson’s also had a magnificent season, but he was greatly aided by the Lions also breaking the record for pass attempts in a season.

Defensive Player of the Year: J.J. Watt, Houston Texans

The shine is off the Texans, but there’s no denying that their star lineman has been outstanding this year. If the stars were aligned slightly differently — say, the Texans were streaking towards the end of the year, and Watt had a monster primetime game late — he’d have a legitimate chance at the M.V.P. award. Last month, I talked about how this award was a three-man race with the stars all coming from the 2011 Draft. In that article I also mentioned Geno Atkins as a possible darkhorse, and he’s been ever better since. But Watt has 20.5 sacks and the national reputation as the Sultan of Swatt, so this award is pretty easy to predict.

And well justified. Watt’s production as a 3-4 defensive end is remarkable. He now owns the single-season record for sacks by a player at that position, but he’s far from one dimensional. We know that he is fantastic at tipping passes at the line of scrimmage and is excellent in run support. He’s a complete player in every respect, a dominant force at a position that rarely receives media attention.

I’d select Von Miller as my runner-up and give Atkins the bronze. While Aldon Smith gets more attention because of his lofty sack totals, he’s a one-dimensional player. While he’s outstanding at that one dimension, just being a dominant pass rusher only makes him the fourth best defensive player this year. He also disappeared down the stretch, which not coincidentally began when star defensive end Justin Smith went down with a triceps injury.

Comeback Player of the Year: Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos

Peyton Manning missed the entire 2011 season, but as soon as he took the field in 2012 he became the favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year. A quarterback has won this award each of the last four years — Chad Pennington (2008), Tom Brady (2009), Michael Vick (2010), and Matthew Stafford (2011) — and the trend should continue in 2012. Comeback Player of the Year is a two-man race, and there’s no wrong answer when choosing between Manning and Peterson. If the voters could, surely the majority would pick that Manning and Peterson split the award. If ever an award called for a split, this was it.

Peyton Manning’s neck injury was considered career-threatening this time last year. Many questioned his arm strength in the pre-season and in September, but by the end of the year he was once again the best quarterback in the league. It’s simply splitting hairs picking between Manning and Peterson, who tore two ligaments in his knee just over a year ago and rebounded to rush for 2,000 yards. And let’s at least recognize Jamaal Charles, who in any other year would likely take home the award. The Kansas City running back tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee last season, and rebounded to rush for over 1,500 yards in 2012. My guess is that those voters looking for a tiebreaker focus on the fact that Manning missed the entire 2011 season while Peterson ran for 970 yards and 12 touchdowns last year, making Manning more of a “comeback” story.

You can view the full post here.

Tagged as: Adrian Peterson, Awards, COTY, CPOTY, DPOY, DROY, J.J. Watt, MVP, OPOY, OROY, Peyton Manning

{ 3 comments }

Examining the seasons of Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall in a different light

by Chase Stuart on January 1, 2013

in History, Receiving, Statistics

Three weeks ago, I set forth the argument that perhaps Calvin Johnson was not even the most productive receiver in his own division. While Megatron racked up the numbers, I argued that you have to account for the situation. The relevant situation here is that the Lions ran an incredible 1,160 plays compared to just 999 for the Bears, and Detroit attempted 740 passes while Chicago threw only 485 times.

When one team throws 255 more passes than the other, I don’t think it’s appropriate to compare the receivers based on their raw receiving yards. One thing we could look at is yards per team attempt. The table below lists the number of team attempts for each wide receiver, his raw receiving statistics, and also his yards per attempt. The table is sorted by yards per team passing attempt. And while it is not relevant when discussing Marshall and Megatron, I have also included a Pro-rated Yards per Attempt column, which pro-rates the number of team attempts for the number of games played by the receiver (this helps Percy Harvin, of course).

Rk	Player	Tm	G	TmAtt	Rec	Yds	YPR	TD	Y/A	PY/A
1	Brandon Marshall	CHI	16	485	118	1508	12.8	11	3.11	3.11
2	Andre Johnson	HOU	16	554	112	1598	14.3	4	2.88	2.88
3	Calvin Johnson	DET	16	740	122	1964	16.1	5	2.65	2.65
4	Michael Crabtree	SFO	16	436	85	1105	13	9	2.53	2.53
5	A.J. Green	CIN	16	540	97	1350	13.9	11	2.5	2.5
6	Vincent Jackson	TAM	16	566	72	1384	19.2	8	2.45	2.45
7	Demaryius Thomas	DEN	16	588	94	1434	15.3	10	2.44	2.44
8	Steve Smith	CAR	16	490	73	1174	16.1	4	2.4	2.4
9	Roddy White	ATL	16	615	92	1351	14.7	7	2.2	2.2
10	Reggie Wayne	IND	16	628	106	1355	12.8	5	2.16	2.16
11	Brian Hartline	MIA	16	504	74	1083	14.6	1	2.15	2.15
12	Wes Welker	NWE	16	641	118	1354	11.5	6	2.11	2.11
13	Dez Bryant	DAL	16	658	92	1382	15	12	2.1	2.1
14	Steve Johnson	BUF	16	511	79	1046	13.2	6	2.05	2.05
15	Victor Cruz	NYG	16	539	86	1092	12.7	10	2.03	2.03
16	Julio Jones	ATL	16	615	79	1198	15.2	10	1.95	1.95
17	Sidney Rice	SEA	16	405	50	748	15	7	1.85	1.85
18	Eric Decker	DEN	16	588	85	1064	12.5	13	1.81	1.81
19	Mike Williams	TAM	16	566	63	996	15.8	9	1.76	1.76
20	Greg Olsen	CAR	16	490	69	843	12.2	5	1.72	1.72
21	Marques Colston	NOR	16	671	83	1154	13.9	10	1.72	1.72
22	Randall Cobb	GNB	15	558	80	954	11.9	8	1.71	1.82
23	Golden Tate	SEA	15	405	45	688	15.3	7	1.7	1.81
24	Dwayne Bowe	KAN	13	475	59	801	13.6	3	1.69	2.08
25	Jeremy Kerley	NYJ	16	493	56	827	14.8	2	1.68	1.68
26	Cecil Shorts	JAX	14	586	55	979	17.8	7	1.67	1.91
27	Anquan Boldin	BAL	15	560	65	921	14.2	4	1.64	1.75
28	Jason Witten	DAL	16	658	110	1039	9.4	3	1.58	1.58
29	Lance Moore	NOR	15	671	65	1041	16	6	1.55	1.65
30	Davone Bess	MIA	13	504	61	778	12.8	1	1.54	1.9
31	Malcom Floyd	SDG	14	528	56	814	14.5	5	1.54	1.76
32	Torrey Smith	BAL	16	560	49	855	17.4	8	1.53	1.53
33	Tony Gonzalez	ATL	16	615	93	930	10	8	1.51	1.51
34	Justin Blackmon	JAX	16	586	64	865	13.5	5	1.48	1.48
35	Jimmy Graham	NOR	15	671	85	982	11.6	9	1.46	1.56
36	Mike Wallace	PIT	15	574	64	836	13.1	8	1.46	1.55
37	Miles Austin	DAL	16	658	66	943	14.3	6	1.43	1.43
38	Pierre Garcon	WAS	10	442	44	633	14.4	4	1.43	2.29
39	Josh Gordon	CLE	16	566	50	805	16.1	5	1.42	1.42
40	Heath Miller	PIT	15	574	71	816	11.5	8	1.42	1.52
41	Brandon Lloyd	NWE	16	641	74	911	12.3	4	1.42	1.42
42	James Jones	GNB	16	558	64	784	12.3	14	1.41	1.41
43	Percy Harvin	MIN	9	483	62	677	10.9	3	1.4	2.49
44	Jeremy Maclin	PHI	15	618	69	857	12.4	7	1.39	1.48
45	Brandon LaFell	CAR	14	490	44	677	15.4	4	1.38	1.58
46	Nate Washington	TEN	16	540	46	746	16.2	4	1.38	1.38
47	Antonio Brown	PIT	13	574	66	787	11.9	5	1.37	1.69
48	T.Y. Hilton	IND	15	628	50	861	17.2	7	1.37	1.46
49	Jermaine Gresham	CIN	16	540	64	737	11.5	5	1.36	1.36
50	Jordy Nelson	GNB	12	558	49	745	15.2	7	1.34	1.78
51	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	16	608	71	798	11.2	4	1.31	1.31
52	Santana Moss	WAS	16	442	41	573	14	8	1.3	1.3
53	Owen Daniels	HOU	15	554	62	716	11.5	6	1.29	1.38
54	Hakeem Nicks	NYG	13	539	53	692	13.1	3	1.28	1.58
55	Brandon Myers	OAK	16	629	79	806	10.2	4	1.28	1.28
56	Vernon Davis	SFO	16	436	41	548	13.4	5	1.26	1.26
57	Chris Givens	STL	15	557	42	698	16.6	3	1.25	1.34
58	Andre Roberts	ARI	15	608	64	759	11.9	5	1.25	1.33
59	Danario Alexander	SDG	10	528	37	658	17.8	7	1.25	1.99
60	Donnie Avery	IND	16	628	60	781	13	3	1.24	1.24
61	Brandon Gibson	STL	16	557	51	691	13.5	5	1.24	1.24
62	Rob Gronkowski	NWE	11	641	55	790	14.4	11	1.23	1.79
63	Leonard Hankerson	WAS	16	442	38	543	14.3	3	1.23	1.23
64	Danny Amendola	STL	11	557	63	666	10.6	3	1.2	1.74
65	Jermichael Finley	GNB	16	558	61	667	10.9	2	1.2	1.2
66	Dennis Pitta	BAL	16	560	61	669	11	7	1.19	1.19
67	Denarius Moore	OAK	15	629	51	741	14.5	7	1.18	1.26
68	Martellus Bennett	NYG	16	539	55	626	11.4	5	1.16	1.16
69	Kendall Wright	TEN	15	540	64	626	9.8	4	1.16	1.24
70	Josh Morgan	WAS	16	442	48	510	10.6	2	1.15	1.15

Why can't we throw it like the Lions do??

As it turns out, Calvin Johnson was neither the best Johnson nor the best receiver in his division, at least as measured by this metric. I’m not convinced or even arguing that yards/attempt is the best way to rank receivers, but I do think the statistic represents an improvement on just receiving yards. Since receiving yards are so highly correlated with attempts, some adjustment needs to be made, and I plan on providing more analysis on how to grade wide receivers this off-season.
[continue reading…]

Tagged as: Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Calvin Johnson

{ 3 comments }

Season in review: AFC and NFC East

by Chase Stuart on December 31, 2012

in Review

This season, I published power rankings after each week where I stated my updated projected number of wins for each team. The point of those posts was to put in writing my thoughts at that time, so that once the season was over, I could look back and see how I did. Over the next two weeks, that’s exactly what we’re going to do.

The picture below graphs my projections for each team for each week of the season. I’ve also added the Vegas futures win totals for each team from the pre-season as the first data point in each graph and the final number of regular season wins for each team as the final data point. My projected win totals for each week N come following the conclusion of week N (i.e., my week 1 power rankings were released after week 1).

New England Patriots

Pre-season Projection: 12 wins
Maximum wins: 13 (after weeks 1 and 14)
Minimum wins: 10 (after weeks 6 and 7)
Week 1 comment: Incredible offensive weapons, an improved defense and a cupcake schedule. Only injuries on the offensive line or to Tom Brady could derail them.

The Patriots started hot with a big win over the Titans, but managed to lose nail-biters to the Cardinals and Ravens the next two weeks. A loss in Seattle — which was an upset, at the time — dropped them to 3-3 and my projected total to just 10 wins. An overtime win over the Jets the following week was unimpressive and didn’t cause me to bump them, but I kept steadily increasing their win total after that.

In the end, it was another monster statistical season for Brady and the Patriots. New England broke a record for offensive first downs and finished with the third most points scored in a season. I was a little bumpy in my New England projections, but they ended up landing right on the Vegas number.

New York Jets
Pre-season Projection: 8.5 wins
Maximum wins: 9 (after weeks 1 and 2)
Minimum wins: 6 (first after week 8)
Week 1 comment: The additions of Quinton Coples and LaRon Landry were easy to mock, but these two could make the Jets defense a top-three unit. So far, so good. Right tackle Austin Howard exceeded expectations by infinity against Mario Williams, and his play this year will be tied to the Jets success on offense.

The Jets best game of the season came in week 1, which inspired a glimmer of early-season hope. In the end, Coples and Landry had strong seasons, but the loss of Darrelle Revis and the disappointing years by Calvin Pace, Bryan Thomas, and Aaron Maybin prevented the Jets from having a complete defense. Mark Sanchez regressed, and injuries to Santonio Holmes, Dustin Keller, and Stephen Hill didn’t help the offense. Rex Ryan lost control of the team, again, and the Jets struggled against good teams early before disappointing against bad teams late. For the second straight year, the Jets lost their final three games of the season, and it appears like they will fire the offensive coordinator again, too.
[continue reading…]

Tagged as: AFC East, Bills, Cowboys, Dolphins, Eagles, Giants, Jets, NFC East, Patriots, Redskins

{ 1 comment }

Checkdowns: Broncos complete 4th largest improvement ever

by Chase Stuart on December 30, 2012

in History, Review, Statistics

In 2011, the Broncos scored 309 points and allowed 390 points. Despite being outscored by 81 points, the Tim Tebow express still made it into the post-season. In June, I speculated that the 2012 Broncos might set the record for the largest increase in pass completions in one year, and they did just that on Sunday. They also moved into fourth place on another list.

With 481 points and 289 points allowed, Denver outscored its opponents by 192 points in 2012. Peyton Manning and Von Miller have turned the Broncos into one of the best teams in the league a year after they were one of the worst (at least, as measured by points differential). Denver improving their points differential by a whopping 273 points this year relative to 2011, the fourth largest increase in football history.

Rank	Year	Team	PF	PA	Diff	N-1 PF	N-1 PA	N-1 Diff	Impr
1	1999	St. Louis Rams	526	242	284	285	378	-93	377
2	1929	New York Giants	312	86	226	79	136	-57	283
3	2001	Chicago Bears	338	203	135	216	355	-139	274
4	2012	Denver Broncos	481	289	192	309	390	-81	273
5	1998	Minnesota Vikings	556	296	260	354	359	-5	265
6	1975	Baltimore Colts	395	269	126	190	329	-139	265
7	2004	San Diego Chargers	446	313	133	313	441	-128	261
8	2006	New Orleans Saints	413	322	91	235	398	-163	254
9	1965	Chicago Bears	409	275	134	260	379	-119	253
10	2008	Baltimore Ravens	385	244	141	275	384	-109	250
11	1955	Washington Redskins	246	222	24	207	432	-225	249
12	1976	New England Patriots	376	236	140	258	358	-100	240
13	1963	Oakland Raiders	363	282	81	213	370	-157	238
14	1997	New York Jets	348	287	61	279	454	-175	236
15	1923	Columbus Tigers	119	35	84	24	174	-150	234
16	1987	Indianapolis Colts	300	238	62	229	400	-171	233
17	1991	Cleveland Browns	293	298	-5	228	462	-234	229
18	1967	New York Giants	369	379	-10	263	501	-238	228
19	1969	Atlanta Falcons	276	268	8	170	389	-219	227
20	2010	Detroit Lions	362	369	-7	262	494	-232	225
21	1976	Chicago Bears	253	216	37	191	379	-188	225
22	2001	Cleveland Browns	285	319	-34	161	419	-258	224
23	1999	Indianapolis Colts	423	333	90	310	444	-134	224
24	2000	New Orleans Saints	354	305	49	260	434	-174	223
25	2010	St. Louis Rams	289	328	-39	175	436	-261	222

Tagged as: Broncos, Peyton Manning, Tim Tebow

{ 1 comment }

Checkdowns: Career rushing stats in wins and losses

by Chase Stuart on December 30, 2012

in History, Rushing, Statistics

Trent Richardson thinks this guy was an average running back in losses.

Yesterday, I noted that Adrian Peterson is averaging nearly two more yards per rush in losses than wins. He’s also averaging a nearly identical number of rushing yards per game in wins and losses.

As you’re about to see, that’s pretty rare. We all know that wins are correlated with rushing yards, so it should come as no surprise that running backs generally gain more rushing yards in wins than in losses.

I looked at all games, including playoffs, from 1960 to 2011, for all players with at least 3,000 rushing yards over that time period. The table below lists the following information for each player:

— His first year (or 1960, if he played before 1960) and his last year (or 2011, if still active)
— All the franchises he played for (which you can search for in the search box)
— His number of career wins, and his career rush attempts, rushing yards, rushing yards per carry, and rushing yards per game in wins
— His number of career losses, and his career rush attempts, rushing yards, rushing yards per carry, and rushing yards per game in losses

The table is sorted by rushing yards per game in wins. Again, for players like Jim Brown or Peterson, they are included but only their stats from 1960 to 2011 are shown. The table only shows the top 50 players, but the search feature works for the entire table, which includes 281 players. In addition, you can click on the drop arrow and change the number of rows shown.

As always, the table is fully sortable. If you click twice on the far right column, you see the career leaders in rushing yards per game in losses. You probably aren’t surprised to see Barry Sanders at the top, but the presence of the running back formerly known as Dom Davis up there is a bit surprising. Steven Jackson is one of the few players who have averaged over 70 rushing yards per game in losses, which jives with the sixth post in Football Perspective history. In addition, Jackson (at least through 2011) and LaDainian Tomlinson form an interesting example of Simpson’s Paradox: Jackson has a higher career rushing yards per game average in both wins (93.9 to 89.9) and losses (71.1 to 63.2), while Tomlinson has the higher career average overall (78.6 to 78.3).

Rk	Player	Years	Teams	Pos	W	Rsh_W	Yd_W	YPC_W	Yd/G_W	L	Rsh_L	Yd_L	YPC_L	Yd/G_L
1	Jim Brown	1960--1965	cle	FB	55	1176	6590	5.6	119.8	25	384	1706	4.44	68.2
2	Terrell Davis	1995--2001	den	RB	58	1415	6867	4.85	118.4	28	444	1880	4.23	67.1
3	Barry Sanders	1989--1998	det	RB	75	1670	8526	5.11	113.7	84	1483	7129	4.81	84.9
4	Eric Dickerson	1983--1993	ram-clt-rai-atl	RB	74	1776	8411	4.74	113.7	78	1368	5572	4.07	71.4
5	O.J. Simpson	1969--1979	buf-sfo	RB	43	950	4818	5.07	112	92	1442	6351	4.4	69
6	Earl Campbell	1978--1985	oti-nor	RB	50	1209	5409	4.47	108.2	70	1113	4418	3.97	63.1
7	Adrian Peterson	2007--2011	min	RB	38	792	4002	5.05	105.3	38	685	3018	4.41	79.4
8	Chris Johnson	2008--2011	oti	RB	36	772	3776	4.89	104.9	28	426	1941	4.56	69.3
9	Clinton Portis	2002--2010	den-was	RB	58	1281	6051	4.72	104.3	59	1019	4086	4.01	69.3
10	Arian Foster	2009--2011	htx	RB	20	428	2077	4.85	103.9	16	282	1305	4.63	81.6
11	Emmitt Smith	1990--2004	dal-crd	RB	135	3036	13198	4.35	97.8	108	1722	6743	3.92	62.4
12	Jamal Lewis	2000--2009	rav-cle	RB	74	1653	7193	4.35	97.2	63	1019	3840	3.77	61
13	Walter Payton	1975--1987	chi	RB	113	2460	10975	4.46	97.1	86	1558	6383	4.1	74.2
14	Larry Johnson	2003--2011	kan-cin-was-mia	RB	40	813	3842	4.73	96.1	43	627	2413	3.85	56.1
15	Edgerrin James	1999--2009	clt-crd-sea	RB	99	2251	9469	4.21	95.6	62	995	3629	3.65	58.5
16	Billy Sims	1980--1984	det	RB	30	603	2861	4.74	95.4	32	554	2378	4.29	74.3
17	Curtis Martin	1995--2005	nwe-nyj	RB	96	2235	9134	4.09	95.1	82	1465	5762	3.93	70.3
18	Frank Gore	2005--2011	sfo	RB	47	939	4422	4.71	94.1	55	743	3366	4.53	61.2
19	Jamaal Charles	2008--2011	kan	RB	16	218	1504	6.9	94	34	290	1605	5.53	47.2
20	Steven Jackson	2004--2011	ram	RB	37	769	3473	4.52	93.9	80	1388	5688	4.1	71.1
21	Shaun Alexander	2000--2008	sea-was	RB	73	1506	6607	4.39	90.5	59	850	3410	4.01	57.8
22	LaDainian Tomlinson	2001--2011	sdg-nyj	RB	104	2048	9346	4.56	89.9	76	1257	4806	3.82	63.2
23	Corey Dillon	1997--2006	cin-nwe	RB	72	1391	6460	4.64	89.7	86	1347	5289	3.93	61.5
24	Rudi Johnson	2001--2008	cin-det	RB	41	901	3672	4.08	89.6	52	629	2363	3.76	45.4
25	Eddie George	1996--2004	oti-dal	RB	90	2094	7863	3.76	87.4	60	977	3354	3.43	55.9
26	Wilbert Montgomery	1977--1985	phi-det	RB	55	1016	4766	4.69	86.7	54	652	2513	3.85	46.5
27	Fred Taylor	1998--2010	jax-nwe	RB	89	1588	7674	4.83	86.2	72	1075	4634	4.31	64.4
28	Jamal Anderson	1994--2001	atl	RB	37	767	3189	4.16	86.2	47	632	2423	3.83	51.6
29	Gale Sayers	1965--1971	chi	RB	29	426	2492	5.85	85.9	36	510	2122	4.16	58.9
30	Barry Foster	1990--1994	pit	RB	35	704	2997	4.26	85.6	23	275	1230	4.47	53.5
31	Curt Warner	1983--1990	sea-ram	RB	55	1133	4704	4.15	85.5	48	636	2389	3.76	49.8
32	Matt Forte	2008--2011	chi	RB	35	661	2985	4.52	85.3	27	395	1398	3.54	51.8
33	Cookie Gilchrist	1962--1967	buf-den-mia	FB	34	625	2871	4.59	84.4	31	372	1381	3.71	44.5
34	William Andrews	1979--1986	atl	RB	43	749	3609	4.82	83.9	42	586	2439	4.16	58.1
35	Marshall Faulk	1994--2005	clt-ram	RB	99	1774	8307	4.68	83.9	89	1227	4574	3.73	51.4
36	John Henry Johnson	1960--1966	pit-oti	FB-HB	32	589	2682	4.55	83.8	38	435	1718	3.95	45.2
37	Tony Dorsett	1977--1988	dal-den	RB	121	2237	10137	4.53	83.8	68	1001	3985	3.98	58.6
38	Jerome Bettis	1993--2005	ram-pit	RB	111	2333	9274	3.98	83.5	93	1345	5062	3.76	54.4
39	Priest Holmes	1997--2007	rav-kan	RB	61	1093	5077	4.65	83.2	49	729	3316	4.55	67.7
40	Ricky Watters	1992--2001	sfo-phi-sea	RB	91	1823	7552	4.14	83	63	963	3720	3.86	59
41	Jim Nance	1965--1973	nwe-nyj	RB	30	571	2455	4.3	81.8	62	680	2585	3.8	41.7
42	Robert Smith	1993--2000	min	RB	63	1039	5146	4.95	81.7	41	517	2262	4.38	55.2
43	George Rogers	1981--1987	nor-was	RB	53	1009	4326	4.29	81.6	45	772	3128	4.05	69.5
44	Jim Taylor	1960--1967	gnb-nor	FB	81	1468	6576	4.48	81.2	31	401	1582	3.95	51
45	Travis Henry	2001--2007	buf-oti-den	RB	36	672	2906	4.32	80.7	52	816	3180	3.9	61.2
46	Willie Parker	2004--2009	pit	RB	55	977	4436	4.54	80.7	27	403	1413	3.51	52.3
47	Ray Rice	2008--2011	rav	RB	45	792	3627	4.58	80.6	22	274	1194	4.36	54.3
48	Maurice Jones-Drew	2006--2011	jax	RB	45	776	3616	4.66	80.4	50	722	3286	4.55	65.7
49	Deuce McAllister	2001--2008	nor	RB	50	913	4017	4.4	80.3	47	543	2240	4.13	47.7
50	Thurman Thomas	1988--2000	buf-mia	RB	130	2373	10378	4.37	79.8	71	843	3138	3.72	44.2
51	Terry Allen	1991--2001	min-was-nwe-nor-rav	RB	69	1303	5504	4.22	79.8	65	890	3263	3.67	50.2
52	Fred Jackson	2007--2011	buf	RB	25	393	1980	5.04	79.2	40	424	1814	4.28	45.4
53	Jonathan Stewart	2008--2011	car	RB	28	414	2217	5.36	79.2	35	314	1295	4.12	37
54	Franco Harris	1972--1984	pit-sea	RB	136	2553	10682	4.18	78.5	55	776	2924	3.77	53.2
55	John Riggins	1971--1985	nyj-was	RB	103	2048	8088	3.95	78.5	79	1119	4260	3.81	53.9
56	Tiki Barber	1997--2006	nyg	RB	80	1277	6269	4.91	78.4	80	1054	4632	4.39	57.9
57	Lydell Mitchell	1972--1980	clt-sdg-ram	RB	58	1103	4472	4.05	77.1	49	645	2280	3.53	46.5
58	Ricky Williams	1999--2011	nor-mia-rav	RB	81	1486	6221	4.19	76.8	70	967	3868	4	55.3
59	Greg Bell	1984--1990	buf-ram-rai	RB	35	596	2641	4.43	75.5	50	684	2676	3.91	53.5
60	Marshawn Lynch	2007--2011	buf-sea	RB	31	592	2337	3.95	75.4	43	568	2338	4.12	54.4
61	Stephen Davis	1996--2006	was-car-ram	RB	72	1234	5422	4.39	75.3	63	807	3101	3.84	49.2
62	LeSean McCoy	2009--2011	phi	RB	28	427	2100	4.92	75	20	225	996	4.43	49.8
63	Domanick Williams	2003--2005	htx	RB	12	226	898	3.97	74.8	28	544	2297	4.22	82
64	Hoyle Granger	1966--1972	oti-nor	RB	27	443	2013	4.54	74.6	38	358	1530	4.27	40.3
65	DeAngelo Williams	2006--2011	car	RB	38	557	2833	5.09	74.6	43	451	2277	5.05	53
66	Rodney Hampton	1990--1997	nyg	RB	56	1048	4122	3.93	73.6	51	826	2969	3.59	58.2
67	Ahman Green	1998--2009	sea-gnb-htx	RB	89	1416	6545	4.62	73.5	63	759	3181	4.19	50.5
68	Earnest Jackson	1983--1988	sdg-phi-pit	RB	31	544	2279	4.19	73.5	44	515	1888	3.67	42.9
69	Lawrence McCutcheon	1973--1981	ram-den-sea-buf	RB	75	1243	5462	4.39	72.8	38	422	1693	4.01	44.6
70	Freeman McNeil	1981--1992	nyj	RB	71	1132	5109	4.51	72	75	782	3364	4.3	44.9
71	Rashard Mendenhall	2008--2011	pit	RB	37	646	2643	4.09	71.4	17	228	954	4.18	56.1
72	Warrick Dunn	1997--2008	tam-atl	RB	98	1618	6996	4.32	71.4	92	1167	4371	3.75	47.5
73	Cedric Benson	2005--2011	chi-cin	RB	50	925	3568	3.86	71.4	45	647	2446	3.78	54.4
74	Natrone Means	1993--1999	sdg-jax	RB	55	1004	3917	3.9	71.2	39	549	1948	3.55	49.9
75	Gary Brown	1991--1999	oti-sdg-nyg	RB	40	619	2841	4.59	71	35	424	1476	3.48	42.2
76	Michael Turner	2004--2011	sdg-atl	RB	76	1130	5391	4.77	70.9	38	376	1457	3.88	38.3
77	Christian Okoye	1987--1992	kan	RB	44	780	3120	4	70.9	35	447	1771	3.96	50.6
78	Karim Abdul-Jabbar	1996--2000	mia-cle-clt	RB	33	651	2339	3.59	70.9	31	388	1188	3.06	38.3
79	Garrison Hearst	1993--2004	crd-cin-sfo-den	RB	76	1210	5385	4.45	70.9	55	681	2840	4.17	51.6
80	Joe Morris	1982--1991	nyg-cle	RB	63	1103	4460	4.04	70.8	50	448	1678	3.75	33.6
81	Johnny Johnson	1990--1994	crd-nyj	RB	24	428	1685	3.94	70.2	47	618	2393	3.87	50.9
82	Thomas Jones	2000--2011	crd-tam-chi-nyj-kan	RB	88	1541	6154	3.99	69.9	99	1262	4950	3.92	50
83	Chuck Muncie	1976--1984	nor-sdg	RB	51	817	3554	4.35	69.7	65	854	3664	4.29	56.4
84	Chuck Foreman	1973--1980	min-nwe	RB	77	1324	5318	4.02	69.1	38	426	1409	3.31	37.1
85	Ottis Anderson	1979--1992	crd-nyg	RB	94	1630	6489	3.98	69	80	1033	4217	4.08	52.7
86	Larry Csonka	1968--1979	mia-nyg	RB	91	1387	6223	4.49	68.4	64	691	2587	3.74	40.4
87	Randy McMillan	1981--1986	clt	RB	20	282	1365	4.84	68.3	66	695	2484	3.57	37.6
88	John Brockington	1971--1977	gnb-kan	RB	36	637	2456	3.86	68.2	54	651	2308	3.55	42.7
89	Ryan Grant	2007--2011	gnb	RB	45	670	3052	4.56	67.8	22	313	1291	4.12	58.7
90	Willis McGahee	2004--2011	buf-rav-den	RB	66	1042	4415	4.24	66.9	61	859	3359	3.91	55.1
91	Ron A. Johnson	1969--1975	cle-nyg	RB	37	629	2426	3.86	65.6	41	533	1729	3.24	42.2
92	Joe Cribbs	1980--1988	buf-sfo-mia	RB	55	834	3580	4.29	65.1	49	523	1961	3.75	40
93	Marcus Allen	1982--1997	rai-kan	RB	145	2221	9433	4.25	65.1	91	1068	4157	3.89	45.7
94	Antowain Smith	1997--2005	buf-nwe-oti-nor	RB	75	1248	4872	3.9	65	61	674	2559	3.8	42
95	Larry Brown	1969--1976	was	RB	69	1171	4441	3.79	64.4	35	464	1780	3.84	50.9
96	Kevin Jones	2004--2008	det-chi	RB	22	326	1415	4.34	64.3	41	469	1761	3.75	43
97	Floyd Little	1967--1975	den	RB	45	738	2880	3.9	64	67	820	3187	3.89	47.6
98	Wendell Tyler	1977--1986	ram-sfo	RB	71	931	4510	4.84	63.5	46	550	2443	4.44	53.1
99	Ricky Bell	1977--1982	tam-sdg	RB	25	397	1588	4	63.5	38	462	1591	3.44	41.9
100	Abner Haynes	1960--1967	kan-den-mia-nyj	HB	48	601	3046	5.07	63.5	60	439	1592	3.63	26.5
101	Cadillac Williams	2005--2011	tam-ram	RB	33	505	2094	4.15	63.5	50	568	1993	3.51	39.9
102	Clem Daniels	1960--1968	kan-rai-sfo	RB	51	689	3236	4.7	63.5	49	401	1669	4.16	34.1
103	Pete Johnson	1977--1984	cin-sdg-mia	RB	64	1028	3995	3.89	62.4	50	538	1879	3.49	37.6
104	Leonard Russell	1991--1996	nwe-den-ram-sdg	RB	31	549	1934	3.52	62.4	51	615	2039	3.32	40
105	Bam Morris	1994--1999	pit-rav-chi-kan	RB	39	605	2423	4	62.1	37	444	1636	3.68	44.2
106	Rueben Mayes	1986--1993	nor-sea	RB	36	555	2233	4.02	62	40	314	1262	4.02	31.6
107	Errict Rhett	1994--2000	tam-rav-cle	RB	36	635	2213	3.49	61.5	42	539	1930	3.58	46
108	Anthony Thomas	2001--2007	chi-dal-nor-buf	RB	39	628	2395	3.81	61.4	49	431	1532	3.55	31.3
109	James Wilder	1981--1990	tam-det	RB	32	481	1964	4.08	61.4	86	1123	4160	3.7	48.4
110	Joseph Addai	2006--2011	clt	RB	62	943	3804	4.03	61.4	26	310	1270	4.1	48.8
111	Marion Butts	1989--1995	sdg-nwe-oti	RB	50	766	3067	4	61.3	55	601	2262	3.76	41.1
112	Matt Snell	1964--1972	nyj	RB	42	641	2573	4.01	61.3	35	435	1849	4.25	52.8
113	Delvin Williams	1974--1980	sfo-mia	RB	51	745	3115	4.18	61.1	47	588	2525	4.29	53.7
114	James Brooks	1981--1992	sdg-cin-cle-tam	RB	83	976	5060	5.18	61	86	767	3118	4.07	36.3
115	Kevin Mack	1985--1993	cle	RB	51	753	3109	4.13	61	54	645	2438	3.78	45.1
116	Mike Thomas	1975--1980	was-sdg	RB	52	796	3163	3.97	60.8	28	319	1148	3.6	41
117	Neal Anderson	1986--1993	chi	RB	68	992	4130	4.16	60.7	49	604	2315	3.83	47.2
118	Paul Lowe	1960--1969	sdg-kan	HB	66	767	3998	5.21	60.6	28	228	1075	4.71	38.4
119	DeShaun Foster	2003--2008	car-sfo	RB	47	689	2833	4.11	60.3	33	323	1138	3.52	34.5
120	Napoleon Kaufman	1995--2000	rai	RB	46	512	2760	5.39	60	46	467	2036	4.36	44.3
121	Mike Garrett	1966--1973	kan-sdg	RB	62	823	3712	4.51	59.9	41	477	1703	3.57	41.5
122	Dave Hampton	1969--1976	gnb-atl-phi	RB	36	547	2144	3.92	59.6	55	583	2296	3.94	41.7
123	Leroy Kelly	1964--1973	cle	RB	92	1268	5465	4.31	59.4	49	538	2145	3.99	43.8
124	Sam Cunningham	1973--1982	nwe	RB	53	800	3133	3.92	59.1	52	615	2430	3.95	46.7
125	Duce Staley	1997--2006	phi-pit	RB	66	923	3881	4.2	58.8	52	621	2368	3.81	45.5
126	Charlie Garner	1994--2004	phi-sfo-rai-tam	RB	69	830	4035	4.86	58.5	82	784	3503	4.47	42.7
127	Mike Rozier	1985--1991	oti-atl	RB	45	654	2622	4.01	58.3	52	560	2022	3.61	38.9
128	Brian Westbrook	2002--2010	phi-sfo	RB	80	971	4660	4.8	58.3	49	529	2206	4.17	45
129	Mark van Eeghen	1974--1983	rai-nwe	RB	96	1393	5561	3.99	57.9	41	432	1714	3.97	41.8
130	Julius Jones	2004--2010	dal-sea-nor	RB	48	684	2775	4.06	57.8	48	636	2472	3.89	51.5
131	Marion Barber	2005--2011	dal-chi	RB	59	783	3407	4.35	57.7	44	414	1524	3.68	34.6
132	James Stewart	1995--2002	jax-det	RB	54	828	3108	3.75	57.6	53	681	2895	4.25	54.6
133	Eddie Lee Ivery	1979--1986	gnb	RB	35	407	2014	4.95	57.5	34	244	891	3.65	26.2
134	Ken Willard	1965--1974	sfo-crd	RB	69	1003	3955	3.94	57.3	58	579	1963	3.39	33.8
135	Mike Pruitt	1976--1986	cle-buf-kan	RB	67	944	3840	4.07	57.3	76	921	3605	3.91	47.4
136	Marv Hubbard	1969--1977	rai-det	RB	66	767	3773	4.92	57.2	24	225	867	3.85	36.1
137	Gerald Riggs	1982--1991	atl-was	RB	62	894	3544	3.96	57.2	72	1110	4690	4.23	65.1
138	Ronnie Brown	2005--2011	mia-phi	RB	43	596	2448	4.11	56.9	50	586	2522	4.3	50.4
139	Adrian Murrell	1993--2003	nyj-crd-was-dal	RB	44	637	2494	3.92	56.7	72	765	2862	3.74	39.8
140	Don Perkins	1961--1968	dal	FB-HB	55	758	3107	4.1	56.5	51	754	3079	4.08	60.4
141	Lamar Smith	1994--2003	sea-nor-mia-car	RB	54	811	3043	3.75	56.4	58	565	2030	3.59	35
142	Mike Anderson	2000--2007	den-rav	RB	58	716	3254	4.54	56.1	40	250	976	3.9	24.4
143	J.D. Smith	1960--1966	sfo-dal	FB-HB	33	451	1850	4.1	56.1	36	411	1564	3.81	43.4
144	Ted Brown	1979--1986	min	RB	50	660	2799	4.24	56	56	499	1907	3.82	34.1
145	Dick Bass	1960--1969	ram	FB-HB	47	590	2612	4.43	55.6	59	567	2504	4.42	42.4
146	Sammy Winder	1982--1990	den	RB	80	1195	4443	3.72	55.5	52	423	1356	3.21	26.1
147	Emerson Boozer	1966--1975	nyj	RB	54	774	2984	3.86	55.3	58	518	2092	4.04	36.1
148	Ed Podolak	1969--1977	kan	RB	48	655	2630	4.02	54.8	47	423	1482	3.5	31.5
149	Earnest Byner	1984--1997	cle-was-rav	RB	111	1522	6064	3.98	54.6	102	757	3034	4.01	29.7
150	Brandon Jacobs	2005--2011	nyg	RB	71	862	3869	4.49	54.5	39	336	1441	4.29	36.9
151	Roger Craig	1983--1993	sfo-rai-min	RB	127	1658	6873	4.15	54.1	53	529	2106	3.98	39.7
152	Mel Farr	1967--1973	det	RB	31	377	1677	4.45	54.1	27	292	960	3.29	35.6
153	Bobby Humphrey	1989--1992	den-mia	RB	33	422	1781	4.22	54	22	342	1338	3.91	60.8
154	Jim Otis	1970--1978	nor-kan-crd	RB	57	782	3057	3.91	53.6	51	391	1335	3.41	26.2
155	Chris Warren	1990--2000	sea-dal-phi	RB	70	872	3743	4.29	53.5	91	948	4061	4.28	44.6
156	Ahmad Bradshaw	2007--2011	nyg	RB	52	565	2780	4.92	53.5	27	246	917	3.73	34
157	John Stephens	1988--1993	nwe-gnb-kan	RB	28	410	1477	3.6	52.8	59	535	1963	3.67	33.3
158	Gary W. Anderson	1985--1993	sdg-tam-det	RB	36	420	1899	4.52	52.8	73	449	1510	3.36	20.7
159	Otis Armstrong	1973--1980	den	RB	58	721	3055	4.24	52.7	39	321	1408	4.39	36.1
160	Mercury Morris	1969--1976	mia-sdg	RB	74	737	3896	5.29	52.6	33	161	682	4.24	20.7
161	Kevan Barlow	2001--2006	sfo-nyj	RB	37	451	1946	4.31	52.6	50	583	2074	3.56	41.5
162	Tom Sullivan	1972--1978	phi-cle	RB	26	375	1359	3.62	52.3	51	483	1683	3.48	33
163	Reggie Cobb	1990--1996	tam-gnb-jax-nyj	RB	29	407	1514	3.72	52.2	62	670	2255	3.37	36.4
164	Hewritt Dixon	1963--1970	den-rai	RB-TE	55	677	2861	4.23	52	38	161	553	3.43	14.6
165	Altie Taylor	1969--1976	det-oti	RB	54	718	2794	3.89	51.7	45	417	1406	3.37	31.2
166	Tony Collins	1981--1990	nwe-mia	RB	56	682	2885	4.23	51.5	53	556	1962	3.53	37
167	Sherman Smith	1976--1983	sea-sdg	RB	35	403	1792	4.45	51.2	53	431	1728	4.01	32.6
168	Justin Fargas	2003--2009	rai	FB	25	287	1278	4.45	51.1	65	540	2091	3.87	32.2
169	Edgar Bennett	1992--1999	gnb-chi	RB	64	899	3264	3.63	51	47	379	1289	3.4	27.4
170	Terry Metcalf	1973--1981	crd-was	RB-WR	46	499	2341	4.69	50.9	36	282	1216	4.31	33.8
171	Calvin Hill	1969--1981	dal-was-cle	RB	96	1145	4884	4.27	50.9	54	395	1559	3.95	28.9
172	Michael Vick	2001--2011	atl-phi	QB	65	459	3287	7.16	50.6	51	297	2165	7.29	42.5
173	MacArthur Lane	1968--1978	crd-gnb-kan	RB	52	602	2620	4.35	50.4	67	551	1884	3.42	28.1
174	Larry Kinnebrew	1983--1990	cin-buf	RB	37	458	1863	4.07	50.4	40	328	1287	3.92	32.2
175	Gerry Ellis	1980--1986	gnb	RB	46	479	2314	4.83	50.3	54	350	1499	4.28	27.8
176	Barry Word	1987--1993	nor-kan-min	RB	45	541	2235	4.13	49.7	24	223	859	3.85	35.8
177	Johnny Roland	1966--1973	crd-nyg	RB	40	501	1968	3.93	49.2	47	427	1458	3.41	31
178	Herschel Walker	1986--1997	dal-min-phi-nyg	RB	84	962	4122	4.28	49.1	106	1020	4235	4.15	40
179	Curtis Dickey	1980--1986	clt-cle	RB	30	383	1467	3.83	48.9	51	553	2545	4.6	49.9
180	Keith Lincoln	1961--1968	sdg-buf	FB-HB	47	440	2294	5.21	48.8	38	308	1255	4.07	33
181	Boobie Clark	1973--1980	cin-oti	RB	48	601	2311	3.85	48.1	31	225	837	3.72	27
182	Clarence Davis	1971--1978	rai	RB	73	759	3511	4.63	48.1	25	166	625	3.77	25
183	Michael Pittman	1998--2008	crd-tam-den	RB	69	782	3315	4.24	48	81	665	2499	3.76	30.9
184	Tom Woodeshick	1963--1972	phi-crd	RB	31	346	1483	4.29	47.8	50	456	1922	4.21	38.4
185	Tyrone Wheatley	1995--2004	nyg-rai	RB	67	818	3185	3.89	47.5	61	492	1878	3.82	30.8
186	Charley Tolar	1960--1966	oti	FB	46	576	2173	3.77	47.2	42	354	1183	3.34	28.2
187	Frank Pollard	1980--1988	pit	RB	52	551	2448	4.44	47.1	50	447	1772	3.96	35.4
188	Lorenzo White	1988--1995	oti-cle	RB	54	612	2538	4.15	47	59	526	1968	3.74	33.4
189	Ron Dayne	2000--2007	nyg-den-htx	RB	54	693	2537	3.66	47	42	320	1271	3.97	30.3
190	Walter Abercrombie	1982--1988	pit-phi	RB	45	516	2113	4.09	47	42	369	1423	3.86	33.9
191	Harvey Williams	1991--1998	kan-rai	RB	53	632	2487	3.94	46.9	55	411	1528	3.72	27.8
192	Don Calhoun	1974--1981	buf-nwe	RB	55	577	2532	4.39	46	39	288	1044	3.63	26.8
193	Greg Hill	1994--1999	kan-ram-det	RB	53	579	2439	4.21	46	28	196	795	4.06	28.4
194	Roland Harper	1975--1982	chi	RB	34	398	1554	3.9	45.7	40	364	1501	4.12	37.5
195	Rob Carpenter	1977--1986	oti-nyg-ram	RB	76	904	3449	3.82	45.4	48	354	1246	3.52	26
196	Dexter Bussey	1974--1984	det	RB	57	578	2571	4.45	45.1	76	628	2551	4.06	33.6
197	Wray Carlton	1960--1967	buf	HB-FB	43	472	1935	4.1	45	38	338	1402	4.15	36.9
198	John David Crow	1960--1968	crd-sfo	HB-TE	52	539	2324	4.31	44.7	45	355	1425	4.01	31.7
199	Mike Alstott	1996--2006	tam	RB	89	1002	3948	3.94	44.4	79	469	1481	3.16	18.7
200	Dalton Hilliard	1986--1993	nor	RB	65	762	2864	3.76	44.1	44	383	1364	3.56	31
201	Joe Washington	1977--1985	sdg-clt-was-atl	RB	64	672	2819	4.19	44	62	542	2076	3.83	33.5
202	Wilbur Jackson	1974--1982	sfo-was	RB	36	371	1574	4.24	43.7	60	608	2305	3.79	38.4
203	Nick Pietrosante	1960--1967	det-cle	FB	50	520	2185	4.2	43.7	36	306	1241	4.06	34.5
204	Mario Bates	1994--2000	nor-crd-det	RB	38	440	1644	3.74	43.3	53	416	1439	3.46	27.2
205	Les Josephson	1964--1974	ram	RB	58	552	2501	4.53	43.1	35	200	628	3.14	17.9
206	Reggie Bush	2006--2011	nor-mia	RB	45	429	1938	4.52	43.1	36	349	1438	4.12	39.9
207	Rocky Bleier	1968--1980	pit	RB	85	861	3602	4.18	42.4	36	207	740	3.57	20.6
208	Chris Brown	2003--2009	oti-htx	RB	32	302	1352	4.48	42.3	38	442	1781	4.03	46.9
209	James R. Jones	1983--1992	det-sea	FB-TE	37	429	1555	3.62	42	75	575	2024	3.52	27
210	Charlie H. Smith	1968--1975	rai-sdg	RB	66	721	2751	3.82	41.7	22	173	715	4.13	32.5
211	Don Woods	1974--1980	sdg-sfo	RB	29	338	1205	3.57	41.6	40	425	1882	4.43	47.1
212	Wayne Morris	1976--1984	crd-sdg	RB	47	496	1951	3.93	41.5	64	399	1432	3.59	22.4
213	LaMont Jordan	2001--2009	nyj-rai-nwe-den	RB	53	467	2180	4.67	41.1	60	469	1770	3.77	29.5
214	Ernie Green	1962--1968	cle	HB-FB	64	556	2621	4.71	41	27	134	654	4.88	24.2
215	Doug Kotar	1974--1981	nyg	RB	31	324	1253	3.87	40.4	58	576	2127	3.69	36.7
216	Dorsey Levens	1994--2004	gnb-phi-nyg	RB	104	1028	4182	4.07	40.2	48	380	1475	3.88	30.7
217	Charles White	1980--1988	cle-ram	RB	51	487	2039	4.19	40	51	303	1068	3.52	20.9
218	Craig Heyward	1988--1998	nor-chi-atl-ram-clt	RB	71	647	2837	4.38	40	72	407	1518	3.73	21.1
219	Reuben Droughns	2001--2008	det-den-cle-nyg	RB	50	478	1993	4.17	39.9	47	459	1638	3.57	34.9
220	Johnny Hector	1983--1992	nyj	RB	58	569	2306	4.05	39.8	63	489	2007	4.1	31.9
221	Harold Green	1990--1998	cin-ram-atl	RB	47	442	1866	4.22	39.7	78	720	2554	3.55	32.7
222	Amos Marsh	1961--1967	dal-det	HB-FB	31	264	1222	4.63	39.4	52	412	1655	4.02	31.8
223	Dave Osborn	1965--1976	min-gnb	RB	82	886	3232	3.65	39.4	47	352	1312	3.73	27.9
224	Cid Edwards	1968--1975	crd-sdg-chi	RB	29	235	1143	4.86	39.4	49	418	1670	4	34.1
225	Tom Matte	1961--1972	clt	RB	94	942	3700	3.93	39.4	43	298	1147	3.85	26.7
226	John L. Williams	1986--1995	sea-pit	FB	81	739	3172	4.29	39.2	75	531	1939	3.65	25.9
227	Ladell Betts	2002--2010	was-nor	RB	52	481	2016	4.19	38.8	60	356	1355	3.81	22.6
228	Walt Garrison	1966--1974	dal	RB	87	777	3319	4.27	38.1	37	236	975	4.13	26.4
229	Michael Bennett	2001--2010	min-kan-tam-sdg-rai	RB	47	424	1788	4.22	38	60	440	2008	4.56	33.5
230	Wendell Hayes	1963--1974	dal-den-kan	RB	62	587	2349	4	37.9	58	401	1445	3.6	24.9
231	Willie Ellison	1967--1974	ram-kan	RB	55	490	2062	4.21	37.5	26	248	1016	4.1	39.1
232	Essex Johnson	1968--1976	cin-tam	RB	48	399	1789	4.48	37.3	65	329	1461	4.44	22.5
233	Jim Kiick	1968--1977	mia-den	RB	80	791	2972	3.76	37.2	34	313	1056	3.37	31.1
234	Stump Mitchell	1981--1989	crd	RB	51	439	1890	4.31	37.1	64	514	2573	5.01	40.2
235	John Fuqua	1969--1976	nyg-pit	RB	57	524	2101	4.01	36.9	37	239	1087	4.55	29.4
236	Robert Newhouse	1972--1983	dal	RB	115	1030	4237	4.11	36.8	42	304	1198	3.94	28.5
237	Curtis McClinton	1962--1968	kan	FB-TE	58	517	2134	4.13	36.8	32	242	978	4.04	30.6
238	Leroy Hoard	1990--1999	cle-rav-car-min	RB	76	677	2796	4.13	36.8	70	392	1397	3.56	20
239	Merril Hoge	1987--1994	pit-chi	RB	56	505	2027	4.01	36.2	54	359	1359	3.79	25.2
240	Charlie Harraway	1966--1973	cle-was	RB	62	588	2240	3.81	36.1	34	275	921	3.35	27.1
241	Larry Garron	1960--1968	nwe	HB-FB	52	457	1877	4.11	36.1	37	260	919	3.53	24.8
242	Correll Buckhalter	2001--2010	phi-den	RB	62	490	2222	4.53	35.8	48	222	959	4.32	20
243	Erric Pegram	1991--1997	atl-pit-sdg-nyg	RB	58	564	2067	3.66	35.6	41	327	1450	4.43	35.4
244	Carl Garrett	1969--1977	nwe-chi-nyj-rai	RB	50	435	1752	4.03	35	64	604	2478	4.1	38.7
245	Rickey Young	1975--1983	sdg-min	RB	58	528	2032	3.85	35	73	472	1605	3.4	22
246	Greg Pruitt	1973--1984	cle-rai	RB	88	614	3078	5.01	35	71	577	2517	4.36	35.5
247	Darrin Nelson	1982--1992	min-sdg	RB	73	583	2545	4.37	34.9	76	483	2067	4.28	27.2
248	Lenny Moore	1960--1967	clt	RB-WR	58	467	2011	4.31	34.7	33	247	986	3.99	29.9
249	Donny Anderson	1966--1974	gnb-crd	RB	68	594	2349	3.95	34.5	57	589	2256	3.83	39.6
250	Kenneth Davis	1986--1994	gnb-buf	RB	77	603	2656	4.4	34.5	54	333	1371	4.12	25.4
251	Tommy Mason	1961--1971	min-ram-was	RB	61	544	2102	3.86	34.5	55	424	1855	4.38	33.7
252	Chester Taylor	2002--2011	rav-min-chi-crd	RB	86	726	2953	4.07	34.3	70	470	1932	4.11	27.6
253	Tony Nathan	1979--1987	mia	RB	89	636	3047	4.79	34.2	45	214	950	4.44	21.1
254	Dominic Rhodes	2001--2010	clt-rai	RB	70	578	2387	4.13	34.1	40	334	1306	3.91	32.7
255	Timmy Brown	1960--1968	phi-clt	RB	51	390	1724	4.42	33.8	53	463	2005	4.33	37.8
256	Dick Hoak	1961--1970	pit	RB-WR	43	413	1420	3.44	33	79	638	2307	3.62	29.2
257	Bill Mathis	1960--1969	nyj	FB-HB	66	615	2164	3.52	32.8	60	417	1380	3.31	23
258	Earl Gros	1962--1970	gnb-phi-pit-nor	FB	44	348	1441	4.14	32.8	52	455	1673	3.68	32.2
259	Bill Brown	1961--1974	chi-min	RB	96	893	3138	3.51	32.7	77	709	2461	3.47	32
260	Anthony Johnson	1990--2000	clt-nyj-chi-car-jax	RB	53	482	1712	3.55	32.3	74	371	1389	3.74	18.8
261	Jess Phillips	1968--1977	cin-nor-rai-nwe	RB	62	444	1980	4.46	31.9	61	451	1601	3.55	26.2
262	Terry Kirby	1993--2002	mia-sfo-cle-rai	RB	68	538	2156	4.01	31.7	51	305	1019	3.34	20
263	Ronnie Bull	1962--1971	chi-phi	RB	60	520	1896	3.65	31.6	49	327	1248	3.82	25.5
264	Norm Bulaich	1970--1979	clt-phi-mia	RB	72	552	2275	4.12	31.6	46	300	1195	3.98	26
265	John Cappelletti	1974--1983	ram-sdg	RB	77	676	2410	3.57	31.3	34	183	624	3.41	18.4
266	Sammy Morris	2000--2011	buf-mia-nwe-dal	RB	65	443	1989	4.49	30.6	65	294	1073	3.65	16.5
267	Pete Banaszak	1966--1978	rai	RB	113	867	3453	3.98	30.6	40	185	637	3.44	15.9
268	Cullen Bryant	1973--1987	ram-sea	RB	95	718	2746	3.82	28.9	52	244	965	3.95	18.6
269	Maurice Morris	2002--2011	sea-det	RB	76	535	2169	4.05	28.5	76	374	1600	4.28	21.1
270	Randall Cunningham	1985--2001	phi-min-dal-rav	QB	98	486	2701	5.56	27.6	73	334	2475	7.41	33.9
271	Tony Galbreath	1976--1987	nor-min-nyg	RB	79	504	2124	4.21	26.9	90	544	2021	3.72	22.5
272	Matt Suhey	1980--1989	chi	RB	84	602	2257	3.75	26.9	59	269	845	3.14	14.3
273	Kordell Stewart	1995--2005	pit-chi-rav	QB	76	410	1992	4.86	26.2	54	204	1164	5.71	21.6
274	Steve Young	1985--1999	tam-sfo	QB	125	550	3236	5.88	25.9	60	268	1597	5.96	26.6
275	Steve McNair	1995--2007	oti-rav	QB	100	479	2488	5.19	24.9	72	245	1457	5.95	20.2
276	Donovan McNabb	1999--2011	phi-was-min	QB	106	458	2391	5.22	22.6	74	229	1488	6.5	20.1
277	Kevin Faulk	1999--2011	nwe	RB	125	653	2743	4.2	21.9	54	299	1289	4.31	23.9
278	Preston Pearson	1968--1980	clt-pit-dal	RB	118	607	2380	3.92	20.2	58	377	1331	3.53	22.9
279	Keith Byars	1986--1998	phi-mia-nwe-nyj	FB-TE	119	537	1893	3.53	15.9	79	318	1154	3.63	14.6
280	John Elway	1983--1998	den	QB	163	598	2279	3.81	14	92	266	1553	5.84	16.9
281	Fran Tarkenton	1961--1978	min-nyg	QB	131	390	1710	4.38	13.1	117	292	1934	6.62	16.5

[continue reading…]

Tagged as: Adrian Peterson, Jim Brown, Simpson’s Paradox, Steven Jackson, Terrell Davis

{ 4 comments }

Adrian Peterson’s amazing, except when the Vikings win

by Chase Stuart on December 29, 2012

in Rushing

Adrian Peterson is having an incredible season. He’s likely to hit the 2,000-yard mark on Sunday, and he’s also chasing Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record. But his splits this year are…interesting.

The table below shows Adrian Peterson’s game logs. These display his traditional statistics, along with his Win Probability added, Expected Points Added, and Success Rate, all courtesy of Advanced NFL Stats; finally I have added the Vikings SRS score for that particularly game (on the season, Minnesota has an SRS of +3.0).

G#	Opp	W/L	Score	Rsh	Yds	YPC	TD	RecYds	WPA	EPA	SR(%)	SRS
1	JAX	W	26-23	17	84	4.9	2	3	0.17	2.5	50	-12.2
2	IND	L	20-23	16	60	3.8	0	20	-0.02	-2.2	40	-5.7
3	SFO	W	24-13	25	86	3.4	0	21	-0.1	-2.4	33.3	18.3
4	DET	W	20-13	21	102	4.9	0	20	0.05	1.8	40	7.5
5	TEN	W	30-7	17	88	5.2	0	15	-0.12	-1.5	33.3	9.3
6	WAS	L	26-38	17	79	4.6	0	50	-0.06	1.6	42.3	-5.9
7	ARI	W	21-14	23	153	6.7	1	6	0.12	0.4	33.3	0.8
8	TAM	L	17-36	15	123	8.2	1	4	-0.07	0.7	43.8	-22.9
9	SEA	L	20-30	17	182	10.7	2	11	0.37	9.5	52.4	5.7
10	DET	W	34-24	27	171	6.3	1	5	0.04	-0.7	25	4.5
11	CHI	L	10-28	18	108	6	0	30	-0.03	0.8	60	-7.8
12	GNB	L	14-23	21	210	10	1	10	0.42	10.4	43.5	1.5
13	CHI	W	21-14	31	154	5	2	16	0.24	2.3	45.5	11.2
14	STL	W	36-22	24	212	8.8	1	0	0.21	6.9	45.8	16.8
15	HOU	W	23-6	25	86	3.4	0	4	-0.1	-5	25.9	24.5
Total				314	1898	6	11	215	1.12	25.1	40.2	3

A robot and a vegan walk into a bar...

Peterson has only had two games this season where he averaged fewer than 3.5 yards per carry. Those two games were, without question, the two most impressive wins of the year for the Vikings. Peterson had identical stat lines of 25 carries/86 yards/0 touchdowns in shocking upsets over the 49ers and Texans.
[continue reading…]

Tagged as: Adrian Peterson, Vikings

{ 2 comments }

Week 16 Power Rankings

by Chase Stuart on December 28, 2012

in Power Rankings

What’s the point of power rankings now that there is just one week left in the regular season? If you’ve asked that question, you are implicitly saying that power rankings serve a purpose earlier in the year! If you want to see the playoff picture, I laid that out earlier this week, so I’ll assume you’ll be staying on this post for the snark.

I was on the Seahawks’ bandwagon a couple of weeks earlier than most, but they’re now #1 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings and third in Advanced NFL Stats’ Efficiency Rankings. Seattle is also first in Pro-Football-Reference.com’s SRS Ratings; the Seahawks are second in the NFL in points differential, behind the Patriots, but a much tougher schedule was enough to close the gap there. Now that Richard Sherman is cleared to play in the postseason, Seattle is a legitimate Super Bowl contender. They may not have home field advantage in the playoffs, but they do have my Coach of the Year.

Here’s the week 17 schedule along with my projected winner:

Road Team		Home Team	Time	Proj Winner
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	@	Atlanta Falcons	1:00 PM	Atlanta Falcons
New York Jets	@	Buffalo Bills	1:00 PM	Buffalo Bills
Baltimore Ravens	@	Cincinnati Bengals	1:00 PM	Cincinnati Bengals
Houston Texans	@	Indianapolis Colts	1:00 PM	Houston Texans
Chicago Bears	@	Detroit Lions	1:00 PM	Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers	@	Minnesota Vikings	1:00 PM	Green Bay Packers
Carolina Panthers	@	New Orleans Saints	1:00 PM	Carolina Panthers
Philadelphia Eagles	@	New York Giants	1:00 PM	New York Giants
Jacksonville Jaguars	@	Tennessee Titans	1:00 PM	Tennessee Titans
Cleveland Browns	@	Pittsburgh Steelers	1:00 PM	Pittsburgh Steelers
Miami Dolphins	@	New England Patriots	4:25 PM	New England Patriots
Kansas City Chiefs	@	Denver Broncos	4:25 PM	Denver Broncos
Oakland Raiders	@	San Diego Chargers	4:25 PM	San Diego Chargers
St. Louis Rams	@	Seattle Seahawks	4:25 PM	Seattle Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals	@	San Francisco 49ers	4:25 PM	San Francisco 49ers
Dallas Cowboys	@	Washington Redskins	8:20 PM	Washington Redskins

That leaves us with the final week 17 standings:

Team	Rec	Wins	PrvWin	Diff	RemSOS	RemHG	Comment
Atlanta Falcons	13-2	14	13	0	0.500	1	Mike Smith says the Falcons will play to win this game. I believe him.
Houston Texans	12-3	13	14	1	0.625	0	The best season in Texans history will be secure with a win in Indianapolis in week 17.
Denver Broncos	12-3	13	13	0	0.125	1	The best team in the AFC? With a win at home against Kansas City, the Broncos will finish the year on an 11-game win streak.
New England Patriots	11-4	12	12	-1	0.438	1	A home win against the Dolphins will mark just the second time Bill Belichick's Patriots have gone undefeated in the division.
Green Bay Packers	11-4	12	12	1	0.500	0	Winning in Minnesota is going to be difficult, but the Packers need a win to secure a much-needed bye.
San Francisco 49ers	10-4-1	11.5	11.5	1	0.313	1	The 49ers can salvage a strong season by winning at home against Arizona; a loss and the team is in a full-fledged free fall.
Seattle Seahawks	10-5	11	11	0	0.406	1	A Super Bowl championship? The coach of the year? The rookie of the year? Seattle might end up with all three in a couple of months.
Chicago Bears	9-6	10	10	0	0.250	0	The Bears rooting for the Packers is one of the weirder twists of week 17.
Indianapolis Colts	10-5	10	10	0	0.875	1	A magnificent season in Indianapolis is capped by the return of Chuck Pagano this weekend.
Baltimore Ravens	10-5	10	9	-1	0.563	0	The Ravens plugged the leak against the Giants, but week 17 against the Bengals will be more like a pre-season game.
Washington Redskins	9-6	10	9	0	0.625	1	The Redskins entered the year with the least hype in the NFC East; they may end the year with the division crown.
Cincinnati Bengals	9-6	10	9	1	0.563	1	In a meaningless game, I'll take the home team. A.J. Green and Geno Atkins will give the Patriots trouble in round 1.
New York Giants	8-7	9	10	0	0.250	1	The only team the last three years to start 6-2 and miss the playoffs? The 2010 Giants. The 2012 Giants may soon join them.
Minnesota Vikings	9-6	9	8	1	0.750	1	I doubt they can do it, but if they beat the Packers and Texans in back-to-back weeks, they will have earned their playoff berth.
Dallas Cowboys	8-7	8	10	1	0.563	0	Tony Romo is closing in on 5,000 yards, Jason Witten set the single-season record for catches by a tight end, DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer have double digit sacks, and the Cowboys still need to win in Washington to make the playoffs.
Pittsburgh Steelers	7-8	8	9	0	0.313	1	It's 2006 and 2009 all over again for the Steelers. Another playoff absence that leaves more questions than answers for Pittsburgh.
St. Louis Rams	7-7-1	7.5	6.5	-1	0.688	0	Sam Bradford and the passing game haven't improved significantly, but the defense is above-average. Add some weapons and this team can compete in 2013.
Miami Dolphins	7-8	7	7	0	0.750	0	Cameron Wake is having the best season by a player you don't hear about.
Carolina Panthers	6-9	7	7	1	0.375	0	Cam Newton ranks 1st in yards per completion, 2nd in Y/A, 6th in NY/A, and 10th in NY/A this year. He's also added over 700 rushing yards.
San Diego Chargers	6-9	7	6	-1	0.250	1	In sixteen seasons as head coach, Norv Turner has made the playoffs just four times.
New Orleans Saints	7-8	7	6	0	0.438	1	The Saints have allowed the most yards of any team through 15 games in NFL history; they're only 282 yards allowed from the record.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6-9	6	8	1	0.813	0	Can the Bucs end the season first in rushing yards allowed and last in passing yards allowed?
New York Jets	6-9	6	7	-1	0.375	0	Just. End. The. Season.
Buffalo Bills	5-10	6	6	0	0.438	1	C.J. Spiller is closing in on the highest YPC average of any player with 1200 yards in league history.
Tennessee Titans	5-10	6	6	1	0.125	1	Chris Johnson joined Eddie George and Earl Campbell as just the 7th running back with 6800 rushing yards in his first five seasons.
Cleveland Browns	5-10	5	5	-1	0.563	0	It's been a typical rookie season for Brandon Weeden, which just looks bad in 2012. A difficult decision faces Cleveland management in the offseason.
Arizona Cardinals	5-10	5	5	1	0.719	0	From Kevin Kolb to John Skelton to Ryan Lindley to Brian Hoyer. In case you didn't figure it out, it's been a rough year in the desert.
Detroit Lions	4-11	4	4	-1	0.625	1	Calvin Johnson goes for 2,000 yards and Matt Stafford goes for 700 pass attempts as the Lions try to knock the Bears out of the playoffs.
Philadelphia Eagles	4-11	4	4	-1	0.625	0	The Andy Reid era is going to go out with a whimper, with the Eagles losing 11 of their final 12 games.
Oakland Raiders	4-11	4	4	0	0.375	0	Terrelle Pryor or Matt Leinart? This is what the Raiders-Chargers rivalry has come to.
Jacksonville Jaguars	2-13	2	2	-1	0.375	0	It's been a rough season in Jacksonville, but the Jaguars did put a scare into the Patriots on Sunday.
Kansas City Chiefs	2-13	2	2	-1	0.813	0	The Chiefs are one loss away from securing the #1 pick. I think Peyton Manning will make sure of that.

Tagged as: 2012 Power Rankings, Seahawks

{ 2 comments }

Seattle’s HFA

by Chase Stuart on December 27, 2012

in Statistics, Theory

As usual, Aaron Schatz provided some interesting information in his weekly DVOA recap. He was looking into Seattle’s home/road splits, and found that the data support what you already know:

[W]hen you look closer at home-field advantage over a period of several years, almost every team generally has the same home-field advantage, which in DVOA works out to about 8.5% on offense and 8.5% on defense. Teams will see their home-field advantage bounce up and down if you only look at things in eight-game periods that coincide with specific seasons, but if you put together six or seven years of data you are going to end up close to 8.5% difference most of the time. The biggest exception seems to be the four NFC West teams, which over the last decade have enjoyed the four largest home-field advantages in the league. And of those four teams, the biggest exception by far is Seattle.

I don’t doubt that Seattle is a much better team at home than on the road. But here’s the question on my mind today: is Seattle much better at home because, well, they’re much better at home…. or because they simply get more favorable home games than the average team? That might sound like the same thing, but Jason Lisk has done a bunch of research on home field advantage as it relates to climate and distance between the teams.

The table below shows the distance each team has traveled this season. The “road” column represents how many miles the team has traveled when they were the road team while the “home” column shows how many miles their opponents had to travel. Note that I excluded the Patriots/Rams game in London, but instead pro-rated their half-seasons to eight games.

Team	road	home
San Francisco 49ers	22024	23317
Oakland Raiders	23177	22505
Seattle Seahawks	23059	21130
San Diego Chargers	20755	20135
Arizona Cardinals	19058	19569
Miami Dolphins	17981	18038
New England Patriots	12311	17764
New York Jets	10846	17280
Carolina Panthers	9067	14109
Denver Broncos	14933	13480
St. Louis Rams	12980	13248
Dallas Cowboys	14826	13057
Houston Texans	13168	12705
New Orleans Saints	11539	12592
average	12558	12562
Atlanta Falcons	8763	12016
Minnesota Vikings	8865	11633
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	13766	11493
Buffalo Bills	12845	11336
Kansas City Chiefs	11987	10982
Green Bay Packers	8013	10776
Baltimore Ravens	8916	10642
Cincinnati Bengals	7801	10270
Jacksonville Jaguars	12607	9948
Detroit Lions	10615	8659
New York Giants	9898	8416
Chicago Bears	9906	7167
Tennessee Titans	9481	7141
Indianapolis Colts	6608	7090
Pittsburgh Steelers	9642	6792
Cleveland Browns	9198	6784
Washington Redskins	7230	6022
Philadelphia Eagles	9992	5878

Seattle is the most isolated team in the NFL. Now if an expansion team was place in Vancouver or Portland, my guess is that such a team would fare no worse against Seattle than the Giants do against the Eagles or the Jets against the Patriots. But right now, no one is all that close to the Seahawks:

There are also climate issues at play here. Think of the coldest NFL cities — Green Bay, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Buffalo, New England, Denver, Kansas City. They all play in divisions with other cold-weather teams. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are playing teams from California, Arizona, or Missouri in their division. The climates are significantly different. Climate effects are very real but also very complicated, so that’s best left for another day.
[continue reading…]

Tagged as: HFA, Seahawks

{ 13 comments }

Who should win Coach of the Year in the NFL?

by Chase Stuart on December 26, 2012

in Coaches

Let’s get this out of the way. Bruce Arians, or an Arians/Pagano ballot, is going to win Coach of the Year. Period. But who should win it?

Coach of the Year is one of the most difficult awards to predict each year. The award often goes to the coach who most outperforms expectations rather than the coach who does the best coaching job, which is how you end up in situations where Dick Jauron and Jim Haslett were named the best coaches in 2001 and 2000, respectively.

There are no standards or guidelines to help voters determine the Coach of the Year, so every voter is left to his own devices. Today, I’m going to run down my rankings of the top 8 coaches of 2012.

8. John Fox, Denver Broncos

Having Peyton Manning makes coaching easy, but Fox still deserves credit for guiding the Broncos to an excellent season. Denver is going to finish the year on an 11-game winning streak and the Broncos are in the top five in points allowed, yards allowed, net yards per attempt allowed, rushing yards allowed, rushing touchdowns allowed, and rushing yards per carry allowed. Fox has helped turn Von Miller into one of the best two defensive players in the NFL and his hiring of Jack Del Rio to coach the defense has worked beautifully. And while Manning is having a phenomenal year, let’s not forget that it was only three months ago that people were questioning his arm strength and the Broncos were 2-3. Many coaches are doing wonderfully with less, but Fox deserves credit for helping lead Denver to the 2 seed in the AFC.

7. Gary Kubiak, Houston Texans

Gary Kubiak wishes COTY voting took place after the end of November.

It was only three weeks ago that the Texans were 11-1 and the class of the NFL. I wrote earlier this season that Kubiak’s done an excellent job resurrecting his coaching career, and much of that remains true. He’s built this team for half a decade, and he oversaw the additions of J.J. Watt and Wade Phillips to the defense to complement Kubiak’s formidable offense. The Texans are likely going to earn the top seed in the A.F.C., an impressive accomplishment considering Matt Schaub isn’t on the same tier of a Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. Even with a little luster off the team right now, Texans fans could hardly ask for more than home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

So why isn’t Kubiak ranked higher? I’m not sure the Texans are as good as their record and they’ve had a relatively easy schedule. Kubiak’s done an excellent job, but he also hasn’t had to face as much adversity as some other coaches this year. Houston is now one of the most talent-laden rosters in the league, and that makes Kubiak’s success just slightly less impressive.

6. Mike McCarthy, Green Bay Packers

The Packers are 11-4 — they’d have the same record as the Texans if not for the Golden Taint play — despite facing a more difficult schedule than Houston. As is seemingly an annual tradition, the Packers have placed a large number of starters on injured reserve, including right tackle Bryan Bulaga, linebackers Nick Perry, D.J. Smith, and Desmond Bishop, and Cedric Benson (along with two other running backs). Charles Woodson has only played in 7 games, James Starks and Alex Green have been banged up most of the year, and injuries have limited Greg Jennings to just 246 receiving yards this year.

Alex Green is the leading rusher with 464 yards, and he’s plodded to the tune of 3.4 yards per carry, narrowly trailing what Benson (3.5) and Starks (3.6) have produced. An anemic running game, a banged up offensive line, and injuries at receiver and tight end have resulted in Aaron Rodgers having a down season and having taken 46 sacks. Clay Matthews has missed four games and he still has 8.5 more sacks than anyone else on defense.

Yet after all that, the Packers are in line for the #2 seed in the NFC. McCarthy’s team is ranked 7th in both points and points allowed, and Green Bay has responded well in the face of adversity this season. After the painful loss to the Seahawks, would other coaches have been able to keep this team focused? After an emotional loss to the Chuckstrong Colts, you didn’t hear about grumbling in the locker room: instead, Green Bay won five straight games. Since a 38-10 shellacking against the Giants, where they looked lost, the Packers have won four in a row. If McCarthy isn’t a household name, that’s just because he’s the most underrated coach in the NFL. Despite facing numerous setbacks this season, he’s got the Packers right where everyone expected they would be.

[continue reading…]

Tagged as: Bill Belichick, Bruce Arians, Gary Kubiak, Jeff Fisher, John Fox, Mike McCarthy, Mike Smith, Pete Carroll

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NYT Fifth Down: Post-week 16

by Chase Stuart on December 25, 2012

in NYT

This week at the New York Times I looked at some record-breaking performances from week 16.

Sunday was a record-setting day in the N.F.L. In case you missed it …

The rookie Minnesota Vikings kicker Blair Walsh connected on a 56-yard field goal in the second quarter against the Texans, making him the first kicker with nine field goals of 50 yards or longer in a season. Even more impressive: Walsh is 9 of 9 from 50-plus yards this year.

Kansas City rushed for 352 yards against the Colts, easily breaking the record for rushing yards gained in a losing effort and also for rushing yards differential in a loss. How do you lose when you rush for so many yards? Brady Quinn threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown and threw another pick in the Colts’ end zone. Another Chiefs drive ended on a fumble inside the Colts’ 20-yard-line. But the turning point of the game may have been when Quinn was stuffed on a fourth-and-1, one of the few times in the game that the Colts’ run defense won the battle at the line of scrimmage.

In the same game, Jamaal Charles recorded the 750th carry of his career, giving him enough rushing attempts to be eligible for the career yards-per-carry title. Jim Brown averaged 5.22 yards per carry during his Browns career. That’s now second highest among running backs in N.F.L. history. Charles has a mind-boggling 5.82 average gain over his five-year career.

Brown might take a back seat to another running back this season. Buffalo’s C.J. Spiller has averaged 6.48 yards per carry this year on 183 carries, the highest single-season average of any player with that many carries. The previous record holder was Brown, who averaged 6.40 yards per rush in 1963.

It’s been another remarkable season for Atlanta’s Tony Gonzalez, but he actually was nudged out of the record books this weekend. In 2004, Gonzalez set the single-season record for receptions by a tight end with 102, but Dallas’s Jason Witten caught his 103rd pass of the season in overtime against the Saints on Sunday.

The Seattle Seahawks have outscored their last three opponents, 150-30. That 120-point margin of victory is the largest differential in a three-game span in 70 years. In 1942, the Chicago Bears won three straight games and did it with a combined 127-7 score; the year before, Chicago outscored its opponents, 136-14, over a three-game stretch.

Mega Record for Megatron

Of course, the most noteworthy individual record to fall this past weekend was Jerry Rice’s single-season receiving record of 1,848 yards. Calvin Johnson needed only 15 games to break the record Saturday night, and with 1,892 yards, he has a good chance of becoming the first N.F.L. receiver to hit the 2,000-yard mark.

With 225 yards against the Falcons, he also became the first player to gain 100 receiving yards in eight straight games and to collect 10 receptions in four straight games. For Johnson, it was his fifth career game (including the postseason) with at least 200 receiving yards, tying him with Lance Alworth and Rice for the most 200-yard games since 1960.

Detroit has averaged 47 pass attempts per game, and will set the single-season record for attempts on its 12th pass attempt Sunday. Most of those passes have come from the right arm of Matthew Stafford, who threw 663 passes in 2011, (now) the fourth-highest number ever. On his seventh pass in Week 17 against the Bears, he’ll set the record, and he needs just 15 passes to become the first quarterback with 700 pass attempts in a season.

You can check out the full post here.

Tagged as: C.J. Spiller, Calvin Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Matt Stafford

{ 1 comment }

Merry Christmas

by Chase Stuart on December 25, 2012

in Trivia

The North Pole is that way, dude.

Merry Christmas from Football Perspective! Most people know that Jay Cutler is from Santa Claus, Indiana, but did you know that that Arizona offensive lineman Daryn Colledge is from the North Pole? Well, at least from the one in Alaska.

Former Oregon State lineman Johan Asiata had a cup of coffee with the Bears two years ago, and he’s one of two players in NFL history from Christchurch, New Zealand (Riki Ellison is the other). Wes Ours was from Christian, Kentucky and Wayne McClure was from Merryvile, Tennesssee, while Kyle Rudolph is one of seven players with that last name in league history.

On a more relevant note, today is the 41st anniversary of one of the best games in NFL history. On December 25th, 1971, the Miami Dolphins defeated the defending Kansas City Chiefs in double overtime. The win prevented Len Dawson from going for his 2nd Super Bowl title in three years and helped Don Shula reach the first of three consecutive Super Bowls.

Hopefully you are celebrating the day with your loved ones today. Thanks for being a part of Football Perspective. I’ll close with this list, courtesy of PFR: There are also 63 players in NFL history born our Christmas day, including a Hall of Famer and one of the best quarterbacks not currently in Canton.

Happy Holidays!

											Passing								Rushing				Receiving
Rk		Pos	Born	From	To	AP1	PB	St	AV	G	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Lng	Int	Sk	Yds	Att	Yds	TD	Lng	Rec	Yds	TD	Lng
1	Ken Stabler	QB	1945	1970	1984	1	4	11	94	184	2270	3793	27938	194	88	222	281	2514	118	93	4	18
2	Larry Csonka	RB	1946	1968	1979	2	5	11	73	146									1891	8081	64	54	106	820	4	65
3	William Andrews	RB	1955	1979	1986	0	4	5	68	87	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	1315	5986	30	33	277	2647	11	86
4	Hanford Dixon	DB	1958	1981	1989	2	3	9	68	131
5	Roland Lakes	DT-DE-T-DT	1939	1961	1971	0	0	10	58	154
6	Dave Parks	SE-TE-WR	1941	1964	1973	1	3	9	51	118	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	-10	0	10	360	5619	44	83
7	Norm Bulaich	RB	1946	1970	1979	0	1	5	50	120									814	3362	30	67	224	1766	11	80
8	Marcus Trufant	DB	1980	2003	2012	0	1	8	50	135
9	Chris Naeole	G	1974	1997	2007	0	0	9	48	154
10	Dick Barwegan	G	1921	1947	1954	4	4	7	37	92
11	Howard Twilley	WR-FL	1943	1966	1976	0	0	5	36	120													212	3064	23	44
12	Corey Widmer	LB-DT	1968	1992	1999	0	0	4	33	114
13	Shawn Andrews	G-T	1982	2004	2010	1	2	3	28	63
14	Harry Jagielski	DT-T	1931	1956	1961	0	0	2	27	36
15	Chris Fletcher	DB	1948	1970	1976	0	0	4	26	76
16	Pete Jaquess	DB	1940	1964	1970	0	1	3	26	85
17	Roy Hord	G	1934	1960	1963	0	0	3	24	53
18	Jeff Rohrer	LB	1958	1982	1987	0	0	3	22	83
19	Bob Scholtz	C-G-T	1937	1960	1966	0	0	3	21	81
20	Rod Sherman	WR-FL	1944	1967	1973	0	0	4	18	83									4	20	1	13	105	1576	5	55
21	Torrin Tucker	T-G	1979	2003	2005	0	0	2	11	36
22	Tom Drougas	T-G	1949	1972	1976	0	0	1	10	65
23	Craig Veasey	DT	1966	1990	1995	0	0	0	8	69
24	Demaryius Thomas	WR	1987	2010	2012	0	0	1	6	35	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	6	0	5	132	2044	14	71
25	Marlon Forbes	DB	1971	1996	1999	0	0	0	5	63
26	Reggie Rembert	WR	1966	1991	1993	0	0	0	5	28													36	437	1	27
27	Gordon Bell	RB	1953	1976	1978	0	0	0	4	30									90	319	2	26	32	259	0	20
28	Kerlin Blaise	G	1974	1999	2003	0	0	0	4	38
29	Robbie Jones	LB	1959	1984	1987	0	0	0	4	60
30	Hank Rivera	DB	1938	1962	1963	0	0	0	3	12
31	Stuart Anderson	LB	1959	1982	1985	0	0	0	2	40
32	Bill Briggs	DE	1943	1966	1967	0	0	0	2	23
33	Trevor Insley	WR	1977	2001	2001	0	0	0	2	11													14	165	1	26
34	Greg L. Robinson	T	1962	1986	1987	0	0	0	2	6
35	Josh Baker	TE	1986	2011	2011	0	0	0	1	11													3	27	1	17
36	Patrick Brown	T	1986	2011	2012	0	0	0	1	16
37	Scott Curry	T	1975	1999	1999	0	0	0	1	5
38	Buck McPhail	FB-K	1929	1953	1953	0	0	0	1	12									53	138	0	30	10	38	0	45
39	Limas Sweed	WR	1984	2008	2009	0	0	0	1	20													7	69	0	17
40	Thomas Williams	LB	1984	2008	2011	0	0	0	1	15
41	Nate Abrams	E	1897	1921	1921	0	0	2	0	1
42	Ermal Allen	QB-DB	1918	1947	1947	0	0	0	0	12	4	13	88	0	0	0			7	11	0	0
43	Napoleon Barrel	C	1885	1923	1923	0	0	2	0	7
44	Norm Barry	BB-HB	1897	1921	1922	0	0	3	0	12
45	John Barsha	FB	1898	1920	1920	0	0	0	0	3
46	Milt Crain	FB	1921	1944	1944	0	0	0	0	10									26	78	0	8	1	16	0	16
47	Lon Evans	G-T	1911	1933	1937	2	0	4	0	57
48	Harry Flaherty	LB	1961	1987	1987	0	0	0	0	2
49	Dick Hanson	T	1949	1971	1971	0	0	0	0	3
50	Mike Hudson	DB	1963	1987	1987	0	0	0	0	3
51	Julie Koshlap	B	1917	1945	1945	0	0	0	0	1
52	Mel Maceau	C	1921	1946	1948	0	0	0	0	37
53	Joe Majors	DB	1936	1960	1960	0	0	0	0	1
54	Joe Mickles	RB	1965	1989	1990	0	0	0	0	10
55	Gery Palmer	T	1950	1975	1975	0	0	0	0	2
56	Leon Pennington	LB	1963	1987	1987	0	0	0	0	3
57	Hosea Rodgers	FB	1921	1949	1949	0	0	1	0	12	0	1	0	0	0	0			131	494	5	0	7	97	0	0
58	Jim Sanford	T	1898	1924	1924	0	0	0	0	1
59	Don Silvestri	K	1968	1995	1996	0	0	0	0	28
60	Marty Slovak	TB-DB	1916	1939	1941	0	0	0	0	27	57	109	638	4	48	18			141	396	1	14
61	John Starnes	P	1962	1987	1987	0	0	0	0	1
62	Frank Walton	G	1911	1934	1945	0	0	1	0	25
63	Bill Wexler	C	1904	1930	1930	0	0	0	0	1

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com

Tagged as: Christmas

{ 1 comment }

Playoff Picture: Who needs what in week 17

by Chase Stuart on December 24, 2012

in Current Events

With week 16 in the books, it’s time to take a look at the playoff picture. In the AFC, it’s simple: we know the six teams that will be in the post-season. In the NFC, there are two spots still remaining and five teams trying to claim them. In both conferences, there will be battles for byes in week 17.

AFC

The 12-3 Houston Texans are suddenly in a freefall, and could drop from the presumptive number one seed to having to win in the first round of the playoffs. If Houston loses in Indianapolis, the Texans are vulnerable to being caught by either Denver (home against Kansas City) or New England (home against Miami), or both. There’s likely no middle ground, since the Broncos and Patriots are big favorites, meaning it’s the #1 seed or no bye for Houston. Still, Houston is likely to get the top seed in the AFC. After all, the Colts did just struggle mightily to handle the worst team in the NFL.

Denver can secure a bye by beating Kansas City or having the Dolphins beat the Patriots, and would earn home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win and a Colts victory. The likely result for Denver is the #2 seed

The Patriots are third in the pecking order with four losses. They could drop to the #4 seed with a loss and a Ravens victory over Cincinnati, but that doesn’t mean much: a home game against Indianapolis won’t scare New England and might even be an easier matchup than facing A.J. Green and Geno Atkins. The real drama is whether Denver or Houston falls, giving New England a chance for a bye or even home field. While the Patriots could end up being slotted from 1 to 4 in the AFC, expect each of the top three seeds to take care of business, and New England to finish as the #3 seed.

Pagano will likely see his old friends in two weeks

Pagano as defensive coordinator of the Ravens.

Because the Browns defeated the Bengals, the Ravens hold the tiebreaker over Cincinnati. Both teams split with Pittsburgh, and would split with each other if Cincinnati defeats Baltimore on Sunday, but Baltimore’s sweep of Cleveland would give them the division even if they lose to Cincinnati in week 17. Baltimore has little to play for in Cincinnati; the irony is that if Baltimore defeats the Bengals and the Patriots lose, the two teams would face off again in the first round of the playoffs in Baltimore. Still, the likely scenario is Baltimore staying at the 4 seed and hosting the Colts in the first round of the playoffs.

The Colts are the feel good story of the year, and Chuck Pagano comes back to coach the team this weekend. It’s actually a meaningless game for Andrew Luck and the Colts on Sunday, as they can’t improve their playoff positioning. In fact, they can only hurt it: a victory over Houston in week 17 means, assuming the Patriots defeat the Bengals in the first round of the playoffs, that the Colts would face the Broncos instead of the Texans in the second round. In any event, we know that the Colts are the 5 seed and unless the Patriots lose and the Ravens win, will travel to their old stomping grounds in Baltimore in the first round of the playoffs. Expect that to be a very emotional game and for the Ravens crowd to give a warm #Chuckstrong welcome to their former defensive coordinator.

NFC

Matt Ryan and the Falcons have clinched the #1 seed in the NFC. For all the bashing Atlanta seems to take, they might end up winning three more games than any other team in the conference. However, the most likely opponent in the first round of the playoffs is Seattle, which would be a fascinating contrast in styles. The Falcons will face the winner of the 4/5 game or the 6 seed, but since the 6 seed will likely play in San Francisco, and the Seahawks look much better than either the Redskins or the Cowboys, my money is on Seattle-Atlanta in round two.

Brett Favre is honestly surprised the Packers haven't secured a bye yet.

Green Bay is the frontrunner to win the #2 seed and secure the other bye in the conference. The NFC East winner is out, so the #2 seed comes down to either the Packers or the NFC West winner. Green Bay gets the #2 spot with a win, or with losses by both the Seahawks and 49ers. I wouldn’t count on that. Winning in Minnesota is not going to be easy — Adrian Peterson will be chasing Eric Dickerson’s rushing record and the Vikings are in a “win and you’re in” scenario themselves — but I’d still make Aaron Rodgers and the Packers the favorites. If the Packers lose in Minnesota, their punishment is a first round visit from the Vikings.

San Francisco can still finish as the #2, #3, or #5 seeds. The 49ers get a bye if the Packers lose and the 49ers win, but more likely, San Francisco defeats Arizona and ends up as the #3 seed in the NFC. The 49ers could also get the #3 seed with a loss if the Seahawks lose at home against the Rams, but good luck with that. If San Francisco loses at home to Arizona, the 49ers will likely get what they deserve — the fifth seed and a trip to either Washington or Dallas in the first round of the playoffs.

The NFC East will be decided in Washington on Sunday. If the Redskins win, which would be my prediction, Washington will win the division at 10-6. The ‘Skins have another out, as they could get the 6 seed even if they lose to the Cowboys. At 9-7, Washington would have the tiebreaker over Minnesota based on head-to-head record, so if the Vikings and Bears lose to Green Bay and Detroit, Washington is in the playoffs. Assuming the Redskins make the post-season, Luck would be joined by fellow rookies Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson in the playoffs, an NFL first.

TO taught Sherman what to do when you arrive at the Cowboys 50-yard line.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys face your basic ‘win and you’re in’ scenario. At 8-8 they can’t make the playoffs, so it’s just a question of whether they can defeat the Redskins and claim the NFC East. The other interesting thing to keep an eye on: Tony Romo is only 315 yards away from hitting the 5,000-yard mark, although he trails both Drew Brees and Matthew Stafford in the race for the passing crown.

By defeating San Francisco on Sunday night, the Seahawks clinched the #5 seed in the NFC. While the Bears and Vikings could get to 10 wins, Seattle defeated both teams, so Seattle’s fate is secure as no worse than the 5th seed and is rewarded with a trip to either Washington or Dallas in the first round of the playoffs.

That leaves just the sixth seed up for grabs. If the Vikings defeat the Packers, they’d get the #6 seed and likely travel to Lambeau Field in the first round of the playoffs. No word on whether Brett Favre would be in attendance. Minnesota has the tiebreaker over the Bears because Green Bay swept Chicago, while in this scenario, the Vikes would end up 4-2 in the division. Chicago therefore needs Minnesota to lose and to win in Detroit to get the #6 seed. If both teams lose, the Redskins then would slot into the 6 seed even if they lose.

You might notice we’re missing a certain team from New York. Well, the Jets have struggled this season, and the Mark Sanchez/Tim Tebow/Greg McElroy circus has only gotten more depressing. Oh wait, there’s another team in New York, right? Well, the Giants can’t win the division, but could get a wildcard berth. They would need the other teams they’d be battling for the final spot — Chicago, Minnesota, and Dallas — to lose to Detroit, Green Bay, and Washington, in addition to taking care of business against the Eagles. The longshot there would be the Lions defeating Chicago, but otherwise, it’s not a completely far-fetched scenario.

Tagged as: Playoff Scenarios, Playoffs

{ 10 comments }

Rankings the kickers, from Tucker to Crosby

by Chase Stuart on December 23, 2012

in Statistics

Mack Brown knows kickers.

In the summer of 2009, I wrote a three-part series analyzing every kicker of the last half-century (here are the links to Part I, Part II, Part III). What I did there was analyzed field goal attempts by distance, and then credited a kicker for how many field goals he made over the expected number of successful field goals from each distance.

For example, field goal kickers this year have made 15 of 23 attempts from exactly 50 yards. ^[1]There is some bias in the data in that only the best distance kickers attempts long field goals, but dealing with that is best left for another day. If we assume that 50-yard kicks are successful 65% of the time, then a made 50-yarder will be worth +0.35 field goals and a missed 50-yarder will be worth -0.65 field goals.

To smooth the data, I used kicks from 2005 to 2011, and I also grouped field goals into four-yard increments. In the off-season, I plan to incorporate stadium, temperature, and other weather effects, but for now, I’ve ignored the (often large) role such elements can play.

The table below shows how many field goals over expectation each kicker made through week 15. I also included a column for extra points, and the final column shows how many points over average each kicker provided, giving them 3 points for each field goal and one point for each extra point over average:

Rk	Name	Tm	FG M	FG A	FG %	EXP FG Made	FG Ov AVG	XP M	XP A	XP Ov Avg	Points Ov Avg
1	Justin Tucker	BAL	25	27	92.6%	20.7	4.3	37	37	0.2	13.1
2	Sebastian Janikowski	OAK	29	32	90.6%	24.7	4.3	22	22	0.1	12.9
3	Blair Walsh	MIN	29	32	90.6%	25.1	3.9	30	30	0.2	11.8
4	Shaun Suisham	PIT	26	27	96.3%	22.4	3.6	30	30	0.2	10.8
5	Phil Dawson	CLE	26	27	96.3%	22.5	3.5	28	28	0.2	10.6
6	Kai Forbath	WAS	15	15	100%	11.5	3.5	26	27	-0.8	9.6
7	Dan Bailey	DAL	27	29	93.1%	24	3	32	32	0.2	9.3
8	Jason Hanson	DET	28	32	87.5%	25.1	2.9	34	34	0.2	8.8
9	Connor Barth	TAM	23	28	82.1%	20.5	2.5	37	37	0.2	7.7
10	Greg Zuerlein	STL	21	29	72.4%	18.7	2.3	21	21	0.1	7.1
11	Jay Feely	ARI	21	24	87.5%	18.8	2.2	23	23	0.1	6.8
12	Josh Scobee	JAX	22	24	91.7%	19.6	2.4	15	16	-0.9	6.2
13	Matt Bryant	ATL	31	36	86.1%	29.3	1.7	38	38	0.2	5.4
14	Rian Lindell	BUF	20	21	95.2%	18.3	1.7	34	34	0.2	5.2
15	Nick Novak	SDG	15	17	88.2%	13.6	1.4	27	27	0.2	4.2
16	Alex Henery	PHI	25	28	89.3%	23.5	1.5	22	23	-0.9	3.7
17	Dan Carpenter	MIA	22	27	81.5%	21.2	0.8	26	26	0.1	2.6
18	Ryan Succop	KAN	25	29	86.2%	24.2	0.8	16	16	0.1	2.4
19	Nate Kaeding	SDG	7	7	100%	6.2	0.8	6	6	0	2.4
20	Josh Brown	CIN	6	6	100%	5.3	0.7	5	5	0	2.2
21	Robbie Gould	CHI	21	25	84%	20.5	0.5	33	33	0.2	1.8
22	Steven Hauschka	SEA	22	25	88%	20.9	1.1	38	40	-1.8	1.4
23	Mike Nugent	CIN	19	23	82.6%	18.6	0.4	35	35	0.2	1.3
24	Olindo Mare	CHI	2	2	100%	1.8	0.2	1	1	0	0.5
25	Graham Gano	CAR	5	5	100%	4.6	0.4	13	14	-0.9	0.3
26	Garrett Hartley	NOR	15	18	83.3%	15.1	-0.1	48	48	0.3	0.1
27	Lawrence Tynes	NYG	33	39	84.6%	33.1	-0.1	38	38	0.2	-0.2
28	Stephen Gostkowski	NWE	26	32	81.3%	26.2	-0.2	60	60	0.3	-0.3
29	Shayne Graham	HOU	26	32	81.3%	26.2	-0.2	44	44	0.2	-0.5
30	Adam Vinatieri	IND	24	31	77.4%	24.2	-0.2	31	31	0.2	-0.5
31	Matt Prater	DEN	23	29	79.3%	23.8	-0.8	46	46	0.3	-2.2
32	Nick Folk	NYJ	17	22	77.3%	17.8	-0.8	28	28	0.2	-2.3
33	Rob Bironas	TEN	24	30	80%	24.9	-0.9	29	29	0.2	-2.4
34	Justin Medlock	CAR	7	10	70%	8.3	-1.3	23	23	0.1	-3.9
35	Billy Cundiff	WAS	7	12	58.3%	9.3	-2.3	17	17	0.1	-6.7
36	David Akers	SFO	25	35	71.4%	28.2	-3.2	40	40	0.2	-9.5
37	Mason Crosby	GNB	17	29	58.6%	21.3	-4.3	39	39	0.2	-12.8

So Justin Tucker and Sebastian Janikowski have been the most valuable kickers this year — no surprise there, although Tucker is far from a household name. The worst two kickers won’t shock anyone who has watched much of the Packers or 49ers this year, as David Akers and especially Mason Crosby have been constant sources of frustration for their fans.

I’ll note that I am counting blocked field goals just like a regular miss. When I previewed the list to my brother, he was surprised to see Folk ranking 32nd, since he only missed five field goals. Well, two of them were blocked; if you removed those (and blamed them on the line instead of a low trajectory), he would be 17th (although in this one, I am only removing blocks for Folk). I’d also note that two of his other 3 misses hit the uprights, so I’m not surprised to see my brother (or any Jets fan) surprised to see Folk 32nd.

What if we look at expected field goals over average by distance?

Rk	Name	Tm	19to22	23to26	27to30	31to34	35to38	39to42	43to46	47to50	51to54	55to58	59to62	63to66	FG Ov Avg
1	Justin Tucker	BAL	0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.4	0	1.6	0.1	1.4	0.6	0	0	4.3
2	Sebastian Janikowski	OAK	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.6	0.3	0.7	0.8	1.2	-0.3	-0.2	4.3
3	Blair Walsh	MIN	0	0.1	-0.8	0.1	0.7	0	-0.7	1.1	2.3	1.2	0	0	3.9
4	Shaun Suisham	PIT	0.1	0	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.8	0.8	1.1	-0.1	0	0	0	3.6
6	Kai Forbath	WAS	0	0.1	0	0.2	0	0	1.1	2.2	0	0	0	0	3.5
5	Phil Dawson	CLE	0	0.1	-0.8	0.4	0.4	1	0.3	0.7	1.4	0	0	0	3.5
7	Dan Bailey	DAL	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.5	0.4	0.8	0.5	0.7	-0.2	0	0	0	3
8	Jason Hanson	DET	0	0	0.1	0.5	0.1	0.6	1.4	-0.2	0.4	0	0	0	2.9
9	Connor Barth	TAM	0	0	0.1	0.1	-0.6	0.2	0.5	1.4	0.4	0.3	0	0	2.5
12	Josh Scobee	JAX	0.1	0.1	0	0.3	0.4	0.8	0.1	1.1	0	-0.4	0	0	2.4
10	Greg Zuerlein	STL	0	0	0.1	0.2	-1.7	0.4	0.8	1.4	0.8	-0.1	0.7	-0.3	2.3
11	Jay Feely	ARI	0	0	0.2	0.2	-0.3	-0.8	0.3	1.5	0.5	0	0.7	0	2.2
13	Matt Bryant	ATL	-0.9	0	0.2	0.3	-0.3	1	-0.4	-0.3	0.9	1.2	0	0	1.7
14	Rian Lindell	BUF	0	0	0	0.5	-0.5	1.2	0	0.4	0	0	0	0	1.7
16	Alex Henery	PHI	0.1	0.1	0	-0.7	0.5	1.2	0.1	0.7	0	-0.4	0	0	1.5
15	Nick Novak	SDG	0.1	0.1	0	0.3	0	0.2	0.5	0.7	-0.1	-0.4	0	0	1.4
22	Steven Hauschka	SEA	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.5	0.3	0.4	0.3	-0.3	-0.1	0	-0.3	0	1.1
17	Dan Carpenter	MIA	0	0	0.1	0.4	0.1	1.4	0.8	-1.9	-0.2	0	0	0	0.8
19	Nate Kaeding	SDG	0	0.1	0	0	0	0.4	0.3	0	0	0	0	0	0.8
18	Ryan Succop	KAN	0	0	-0.9	-0.3	0.3	-0.8	0.8	0.7	0.9	0	0	0	0.8
20	Josh Brown	CIN	0	0.1	0	0.2	0	0	0	0	0.5	0	0	0	0.7
21	Robbie Gould	CHI	0.1	0.1	0	-0.7	0.3	-0.2	1.1	-0.9	0.9	0	0	0	0.5
25	Graham Gano	CAR	0	0.1	0	0.2	0	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.4
23	Mike Nugent	CIN	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.4	-0.2	-0.5	-0.2	0	0.6	0	0	0.4
24	Olindo Mare	CHI	0	0	0	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.2
26	Garrett Hartley	NOR	0.1	0.1	0	0.2	-0.7	0.2	0	-0.3	0.4	0	0	0	-0.1
27	Lawrence Tynes	NYG	0	0.2	-0.7	0.3	-0.1	0.4	-0.2	1.1	-1.1	0	0	0	-0.1
28	Stephen Gostkowski	NWE	0	0.1	0.1	0.4	-0.5	-2.2	1.1	-0.2	0.9	0	0	0	-0.2
30	Adam Vinatieri	IND	0.1	0.1	0	0.1	-2.3	0.4	0.8	1.2	-0.2	-0.4	0	0	-0.2
29	Shayne Graham	HOU	0.1	0	0.2	0.4	0.4	1	-0.2	-1.6	-0.6	0	0	0	-0.2
31	Matt Prater	DEN	0.1	0.1	0.1	-0.2	0.1	0	-0.6	-1.3	1.4	-0.4	0	0	-0.8
32	Nick Folk	NYJ	0.1	-0.9	0	0.3	-0.6	0.2	-0.6	0	0.8	0	0	0	-0.8
33	Rob Bironas	TEN	0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.8	-0.4	-1.5	-0.3	0.5	-0.4	0	0	-0.9
34	Justin Medlock	CAR	0	0	0	0.3	0	-0.8	-0.2	-0.6	0	0	0	0	-1.3
35	Billy Cundiff	WAS	0	0	0	-1.8	0.4	-0.4	0.3	0	0	-0.4	-0.3	0	-2.3
36	David Akers	SFO	0	0	0.3	-0.6	0.7	-1.8	-0.9	-0.3	-1.1	-0.4	0	0.8	-3.2
37	Mason Crosby	GNB	0	0.1	0.1	-0.7	-0.7	-0.2	-1.5	1.2	-1.7	-0.8	0	0	-4.3

Greg Zuerlein — or Greg the Leg, Young GZ, or Legatron, if you prefer — has cooled off since his hot start. He’s hit 3 of the successful field goals from 56+ yards this season, but all three came in September. Mason Crosby comes out as the worst kicker, and some have defended him because he’s mostly missed long field goals. While that’s somewhat true, this metric adjusts for distance, so he’s struggling even when you consider the difficulty of the kick.

Crosby is 1 for 8 when attempting field goals from 50+ yards, but the average kicker would have been successful on 4.2 field goals. He’s also missed from 32, 38, 42, 43, and 44 yards, and comes out as the worst kicker in the 43-to-46 range. David Akers tied an NFL record with a 63-yarder this year, but otherwise, he’s had a rough season. He’s missed six field goals from inside of 43 yards.

References[+]

References
↑1	There is some bias in the data in that only the best distance kickers attempts long field goals, but dealing with that is best left for another day.

Tagged as: Justin Tucker, Kickers, Sebastian Janikowski

{ 2 comments }

Checkdowns: Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt “FIP” for Quarterbacks

by Neil Paine on December 22, 2012

in Checkdowns, Passing, Quarterbacks, Statgeekery, Totally Useless

I’ve been on a major QB kick lately, and there’s no reason to stop now. Today, I want to look at a method that might tease out a quarterback’s “true talent” better than if we simply use his raw stats from the season.

Three years ago, our colleague Jason Lisk had a post on the old PFR Blog about which rate stats stay consistent when a QB changes teams. Basically, he grabbed QBs who were still in their primes and changed teams, looking at how their key rate stats correlated from one year to the next. Here’s what Jason found:

[…]I looked at the correlation coefficient for our group of 48 passers, for the year N advanced passing score compared to the year N+1 advanced passing score in each category. This should tell us whether the passers who were good in a performance area (or bad) tended to be the ones who remained good in that performance area the following season, even with the uncertainty of team changes (some positive, some negative for the quarterback).
Sack Percentage:  0.31
Completion Percentage: 0.25
Yards Per Attempt:  0.20
Touchdown Percentage: 0.12
Interception Percentage: 0.10

What do those correlations mean, exactly? Well, take sack percentage as an example. In general, a correlation of 0.31 means you can expect 31% of a QB’s difference from the mean to be repeated next year when he changes teams. In other words, you have to regress the QB’s sack rate 69% towards the mean to get the true rate that “belongs” to him. If the average sack rate is 6.1%, and a QB has a rate of 4.0% (like, say, Drew Brees this year), his “true” sack rate is probably something like 5.4% — 31% of the distance between .061 and .040.

The same concept applies to the other stats listed above. Tony Romo’s observed 66.7% completion percentage is really more like 62.5% after regressing to the mean, and so forth. Do that for every QB who had a reasonable number of attempts this year, and you get these rate stats:

Player	Tm	G	GS	Att	A-Sk%	A-Cmp%	A-YPA	A-TD%	A-INT%	R-Sk%	R-Cmp%	R-YPA	R-TD%	R-INT%
Matthew Stafford	DET	14	14	629	4.3	59.5	6.8	2.7	2.4	5.5	60.7	7.0	4.0	2.6
Drew Brees	NOR	14	14	574	4.0	62.0	7.6	6.3	3.1	5.4	61.4	7.2	4.5	2.7
Tony Romo	DAL	14	14	568	5.3	66.7	7.5	3.9	2.8	5.9	62.5	7.2	4.2	2.7
Andrew Luck	IND	14	13	564	6.2	54.6	7.1	3.5	3.2	6.1	59.5	7.1	4.1	2.7
Carson Palmer	OAK	14	14	562	4.4	60.9	7.1	3.9	2.5	5.6	61.1	7.1	4.2	2.6
Tom Brady	NWE	14	14	560	3.9	63.4	7.6	5.4	1.1	5.4	61.7	7.2	4.4	2.5
Matt Ryan	ATL	14	14	539	4.4	68.5	7.8	5.0	2.6	5.6	63.0	7.2	4.3	2.7
Peyton Manning	DEN	14	14	511	3.9	67.9	7.9	6.1	2.0	5.4	62.8	7.2	4.4	2.6
Brandon Weeden	CLE	14	14	498	5.0	57.2	6.6	2.8	3.4	5.7	60.2	7.0	4.0	2.7
Philip Rivers	SDG	14	14	488	8.1	64.3	6.7	4.5	3.1	6.7	62.0	7.0	4.2	2.7
Joe Flacco	BAL	14	14	487	6.5	59.1	7.1	4.1	2.1	6.2	60.7	7.1	4.2	2.6
Eli Manning	NYG	14	14	487	3.0	60.4	7.4	4.1	3.1	5.1	61.0	7.1	4.2	2.7
Sam Bradford	STL	14	14	482	6.8	60.2	6.8	3.7	2.3	6.3	60.9	7.0	4.2	2.6
Matt Schaub	HOU	14	13	476	4.0	64.7	7.5	4.6	2.1	5.5	62.0	7.2	4.3	2.6
Aaron Rodgers	GNB	14	14	474	8.7	66.7	7.6	6.8	1.7	6.9	62.5	7.2	4.5	2.6
Andy Dalton	CIN	14	14	472	7.5	62.5	7.0	5.5	3.0	6.5	61.5	7.1	4.4	2.7
Josh Freeman	TAM	14	14	469	4.3	54.8	7.4	5.3	2.6	5.5	59.6	7.1	4.3	2.7
Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	14	13	444	5.9	61.7	6.6	5.0	3.4	6.0	61.3	7.0	4.3	2.7
Christian Ponder	MIN	14	14	425	6.6	63.1	5.9	3.3	2.8	6.2	61.6	6.9	4.1	2.7
Ryan Tannehill	MIA	14	14	424	5.8	58.7	6.9	2.4	2.8	6.0	60.5	7.0	4.0	2.7
Cam Newton	CAR	14	14	423	7.2	58.2	8.2	4.3	2.4	6.4	60.4	7.3	4.2	2.6
Mark Sanchez	NYJ	14	14	418	7.3	54.8	6.4	3.1	4.1	6.5	59.6	6.9	4.1	2.8
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	11	11	398	5.7	64.1	7.3	5.5	1.5	6.0	61.9	7.1	4.4	2.6
Jay Cutler	CHI	13	13	377	8.5	59.7	7.0	4.5	3.7	6.8	60.8	7.1	4.2	2.8
Russell Wilson	SEA	14	14	353	6.9	62.9	7.6	5.9	2.5	6.3	61.6	7.2	4.4	2.7
Robert Griffin III	WAS	13	13	351	7.4	66.4	8.3	5.1	1.1	6.5	62.5	7.3	4.3	2.5
Michael Vick	PHI	9	9	316	7.9	58.5	6.9	3.5	2.8	6.6	60.5	7.0	4.1	2.7
Blaine Gabbert	JAX	10	10	278	7.3	58.3	6.0	3.2	2.2	6.5	60.4	6.9	4.1	2.6
Matt Cassel	KAN	9	8	277	6.4	58.1	6.5	2.2	4.3	6.2	60.4	7.0	4.0	2.8
Jake Locker	TEN	9	9	269	5.6	57.6	7.0	3.3	3.3	5.9	60.3	7.1	4.1	2.7
Matt Hasselbeck	TEN	8	5	221	6.0	62.4	6.2	3.2	2.3	6.1	61.5	6.9	4.1	2.6
Nick Foles	PHI	6	5	217	6.5	59.4	6.2	2.3	1.8	6.2	60.7	6.9	4.0	2.6
Alex Smith	SFO	9	9	217	10.0	70.0	8.0	6.0	2.3	7.3	63.4	7.3	4.4	2.6
Chad Henne	JAX	8	4	216	8.5	51.9	6.7	3.7	2.3	6.8	58.8	7.0	4.2	2.6
John Skelton	ARI	7	6	201	6.9	54.2	5.6	1.0	4.5	6.4	59.4	6.8	3.8	2.8
Kevin Kolb	ARI	6	5	183	12.9	59.6	6.4	4.4	1.6	8.2	60.8	6.9	4.2	2.6
Brady Quinn	KAN	8	6	159	9.1	59.7	5.8	1.3	3.8	7.0	60.8	6.8	3.9	2.8
Colin Kaepernick	SFO	11	5	154	8.3	65.6	8.4	4.5	1.3	6.8	62.3	7.3	4.3	2.5
Ryan Lindley	ARI	6	3	141	6.6	51.1	4.3	0.0	4.3	6.3	58.6	6.5	3.7	2.8

(“A-” before a stat means the actual observed rate; “R-” means the regressed rate.)

Now we just need to reconstruct the player’s raw passing line as though he posted those rate stats instead of his actual rates. Cmp%, YPA, TD%, and INT% are easy (just multiply by attempts), and Sack% can be derived via simple algebra:

Sacks_new = (-reg_sk% * Attempts) / (reg_sk% – 1)

(Sack yards can be assumed by multiplying raw sack yards per sack by the new sack total.)

Finally, we plug the new totals into the Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt formula, and we have a QB stat that is sort of like baseball’s Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which also seeks to reduce the noise and teammate interactions in a pitcher’s ERA by reducing his performance to only those elements he has control over — strikeouts, walks, and home runs.

Here are the 2012 leaders in QB-FIP (along with their regressed totals):

Rk	Player	Age	Tm	G	GS	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	SkYds	QB-FIP
1	Peyton Manning	36	DEN	14	14	321	511	3697	23	13	29	191	6.22
2	Tom Brady	35	NWE	14	14	346	560	4027	24	14	32	214	6.20
3	Robert Griffin III	22	WAS	13	13	219	351	2568	15	9	24	166	6.15
4	Colin Kaepernick	25	SFO	11	5	96	154	1130	7	4	11	76	6.11
5	Ben Roethlisberger	30	PIT	11	11	246	398	2836	17	10	25	141	6.11
6	Matt Ryan	27	ATL	14	14	339	539	3893	23	14	32	225	6.11
7	Eli Manning	31	NYG	14	14	297	487	3476	20	13	26	165	6.09
8	Drew Brees	33	NOR	14	14	352	574	4118	26	16	33	237	6.08
9	Josh Freeman	24	TAM	14	14	279	469	3350	20	12	27	181	6.08
10	Aaron Rodgers	29	GNB	14	14	296	474	3402	21	12	35	197	6.06
11	Cam Newton	23	CAR	14	14	256	423	3086	18	11	29	203	6.05
12	Russell Wilson	24	SEA	14	14	217	353	2539	16	9	24	148	6.05
13	Alex Smith	28	SFO	9	9	138	217	1575	10	6	17	97	6.04
14	Matt Schaub	31	HOU	14	13	295	476	3407	20	12	27	228	6.01
15	Tony Romo	32	DAL	14	14	355	568	4071	24	15	35	255	5.97
16	Andy Dalton	25	CIN	14	14	290	472	3336	21	13	33	176	5.94
17	Joe Flacco	27	BAL	14	14	295	487	3453	20	13	32	209	5.93
18	Carson Palmer	33	OAK	14	14	343	562	3980	23	15	33	254	5.92
19	Ryan Fitzpatrick	30	BUF	14	13	272	444	3101	19	12	29	151	5.89
20	Andrew Luck	23	IND	14	13	336	564	3990	23	15	37	230	5.89
21	Matthew Stafford	24	DET	14	14	382	629	4413	25	17	37	256	5.88
22	Jake Locker	24	TEN	9	9	162	269	1900	11	7	17	108	5.88
23	Michael Vick	32	PHI	9	9	191	316	2223	13	8	22	124	5.84
24	Sam Bradford	25	STL	14	14	294	482	3380	20	13	32	216	5.82
25	Brandon Weeden	29	CLE	14	14	300	498	3477	20	14	30	198	5.80
26	Ryan Tannehill	24	MIA	14	14	257	424	2987	17	11	27	205	5.78
27	Chad Henne	27	JAX	8	4	127	216	1511	9	6	16	94	5.78
28	Philip Rivers	31	SDG	14	14	302	488	3422	21	13	35	221	5.77
29	Matt Cassel	30	KAN	9	8	167	277	1928	11	8	18	97	5.75
30	Jay Cutler	29	CHI	13	13	229	377	2661	16	10	28	187	5.74
31	Christian Ponder	24	MIN	14	14	262	425	2912	17	11	28	164	5.70
32	Nick Foles	23	PHI	6	5	132	217	1500	9	6	14	102	5.70
33	Matt Hasselbeck	37	TEN	8	5	136	221	1525	9	6	14	105	5.70
34	Mark Sanchez	26	NYJ	14	14	249	418	2903	17	12	29	178	5.68
35	Blaine Gabbert	23	JAX	10	10	168	278	1907	11	7	19	138	5.61
36	Kevin Kolb	28	ARI	6	5	111	183	1270	8	5	16	96	5.61
37	Brady Quinn	28	KAN	8	6	97	159	1086	6	4	12	70	5.50
38	John Skelton	24	ARI	7	6	119	201	1365	8	6	14	89	5.46
39	Ryan Lindley	23	ARI	6	3	83	141	921	5	4	9	72	5.15
	Lg Average												5.92

{ 3 comments }

Checkdowns: Quarterback Yards Above Bench (QBYAB)

by Neil Paine on December 21, 2012

in Checkdowns, Passing, Quarterbacks, Statgeekery, Totally Useless

These guys are pretty good.

After posting about SRS-style quarterback ratings on Monday, I was thinking about other things we can do with game-by-game data like that. In his QBGOAT series, Chase likes to compare QBs to the league average, which makes a lot of sense for all-time ratings — you want to reward guys who are at least above-average in a ranking like that. However, if we want seasonal value, perhaps average is too high a baseline.

Over at Football Outsiders, Aaron Schatz has always compared to “replacement level”, borrowing a concept from baseball. I like that approach, but replacement level can be hard to empirically determine. So for the purposes of this post, I wanted to come up with a quick-and-dirty baseline to which we can compare QBs.

To that end, I looked at all players who were not their team’s primary passer in each game since 2010. Weighted by recency and the number of dropbacks by each passer, they performed at roughly a 4.4 Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt level. This is not necessarily the replacement level, but it does seem to be the “bench level” — i.e., the ANYPA you could expect from a backup-caliber QB across the league.

Using 4.4 ANYPA as the baseline, we get the following values for 2012:

Quarterback	QBYAB
Tom Brady	1888.1
Peyton Manning	1708.2
Matt Ryan	1453.4
Drew Brees	1441.8
Aaron Rodgers	1337.4
Robert Griffin III	1226.6
Matt Schaub	1205.1
Josh Freeman	1140.1
Cam Newton	1128.2
Tony Romo	1120.2
Ben Roethlisberger	1082.8
Carson Palmer	1011.9
Eli Manning	1002.9
Joe Flacco	914.8
Russell Wilson	890.5
Matthew Stafford	834.1
Andy Dalton	756.9
Andrew Luck	691.6
Sam Bradford	616.3
Alex Smith	558.5
Colin Kaepernick	506.5
Ryan Fitzpatrick	481.1
Philip Rivers	447.7
Ryan Tannehill	409.6
Brandon Weeden	320.4
Michael Vick	317.5
Jake Locker	316.9
Jay Cutler	293.8
Chad Henne	217.4
Kirk Cousins	156.8
Nick Foles	152.5
Shaun Hill	151.9
Matt Hasselbeck	134.0
Kevin Kolb	121.4
Blaine Gabbert	92.2
Christian Ponder	91.0
Mohamed Sanu	87.7
Kyle Orton	62.8
Matt Moore	52.5
Derek Anderson	30.1
Matt Flynn	23.7
Dan Orlovsky	17.6
Greg McElroy	11.4
Tyrod Taylor	9.2
Rusty Smith	9.1
Chase Daniel	5.6
Tyler Thigpen	2.7
Graham Harrell	-1.6
Terrelle Pryor	-4.4
Matt Leinart	-5.1
David Carr	-5.9
Tim Tebow	-6.3
Mark Sanchez	-13.3
Charlie Batch	-17.8
Kellen Clemens	-22.4
Ryan Mallett	-45.9
Byron Leftwich	-46.6
Matt Cassel	-47.7
Brad Smith	-50.0
T.J. Yates	-55.1
Jason Campbell	-88.4
Brady Quinn	-146.4
John Skelton	-309.2
Ryan Lindley	-382.0

If we weigh each game by how recent the results took place, we get this list:

Quarterback	Wgtd QBYAB
Tom Brady	1527.6
Drew Brees	1205.4
Peyton Manning	1202.0
Matt Ryan	1129.8
Aaron Rodgers	1109.4
Tony Romo	961.1
Cam Newton	936.6
Matt Schaub	900.3
Robert Griffin III	869.5
Eli Manning	795.5
Ben Roethlisberger	793.9
Josh Freeman	790.3
Carson Palmer	760.4
Russell Wilson	722.9
Matthew Stafford	687.5
Joe Flacco	666.3
Andy Dalton	520.4
Andrew Luck	479.9
Sam Bradford	459.9
Colin Kaepernick	443.0
Alex Smith	399.3
Philip Rivers	384.9
Ryan Fitzpatrick	324.0
Ryan Tannehill	313.1
Brandon Weeden	266.5
Michael Vick	249.9
Jay Cutler	236.8
Jake Locker	192.4
Chad Henne	178.7
Kirk Cousins	158.7
Nick Foles	150.5
Matt Hasselbeck	133.1
Shaun Hill	84.4
Kevin Kolb	70.6
Matt Moore	64.8
Kyle Orton	59.8
Mohamed Sanu	47.4
Matt Flynn	47.4
Blaine Gabbert	39.9
Dan Orlovsky	26.3
Tim Tebow	16.3
Derek Anderson	16.3
Greg McElroy	10.3
Chase Daniel	5.1
Rusty Smith	4.8
Tyrod Taylor	4.0
Tyler Thigpen	-0.8
Graham Harrell	-1.4
Matt Leinart	-2.8
David Carr	-3.3
Terrelle Pryor	-4.4
Charlie Batch	-7.6
Kellen Clemens	-14.0
Matt Cassel	-24.2
T.J. Yates	-29.7
Brad Smith	-33.2
Byron Leftwich	-38.3
Christian Ponder	-39.4
Ryan Mallett	-44.6
Jason Campbell	-51.1
Mark Sanchez	-91.0
Brady Quinn	-113.4
John Skelton	-263.6
Ryan Lindley	-340.5

This kind of thing isn’t exactly the most advanced stat in the world, but it’s pretty good if you want to sort QBs into general groups based on how good they are (the assumption being that a player who never plays is implicitly a bench-level player by definition).

Tagged as: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady

{ 2 comments }

Week 15 Power Rankings

by Chase Stuart on December 20, 2012

in Power Rankings

With only two weeks left in the regular season, it’s time to change the format of my projected standings. At this point, we might as well just predict each of the remaining 32 games. So here goes:

Week	Day	Visitor	Home	Time	Winner
16	Sat	Atlanta Falcons	Detroit Lions	8:30 PM	Atlanta Falcons
16	Sun	Oakland Raiders	Carolina Panthers	1:00 PM	Carolina Panthers
16	Sun	New Orleans Saints	Dallas Cowboys	1:00 PM	Dallas Cowboys
16	Sun	Tennessee Titans	Green Bay Packers	1:00 PM	Green Bay Packers
16	Sun	Minnesota Vikings	Houston Texans	1:00 PM	Houston Texans
16	Sun	New England Patriots	Jacksonville Jaguars	1:00 PM	New England Patriots
16	Sun	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	1:00 PM	Indianapolis Colts
16	Sun	Buffalo Bills	Miami Dolphins	1:00 PM	Miami Dolphins
16	Sun	Washington Redskins	Philadelphia Eagles	1:00 PM	Washington Redskins
16	Sun	Cincinnati Bengals	Pittsburgh Steelers	1:00 PM	Pittsburgh Steelers
16	Sun	San Diego Chargers	New York Jets	1:00 PM	New York Jets
16	Sun	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1:00 PM	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
16	Sun	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	4:05 PM	Denver Broncos
16	Sun	New York Giants	Baltimore Ravens	4:25 PM	New York Giants
16	Sun	Chicago Bears	Arizona Cardinals	4:25 PM	Chicago Bears
16	Sun	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	8:20 PM	Seattle Seahawks
17	Sun	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Atlanta Falcons	1:00 PM	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
17	Sun	New York Jets	Buffalo Bills	1:00 PM	Buffalo Bills
17	Sun	Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	1:00 PM	Cincinnati Bengals
17	Sun	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	1:00 PM	Houston Texans
17	Sun	Chicago Bears	Detroit Lions	1:00 PM	Chicago Bears
17	Sun	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	1:00 PM	Green Bay Packers
17	Sun	Carolina Panthers	New Orleans Saints	1:00 PM	Carolina Panthers
17	Sun	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	1:00 PM	New England Patriots
17	Sun	Philadelphia Eagles	New York Giants	1:00 PM	New York Giants
17	Sun	Jacksonville Jaguars	Tennessee Titans	1:00 PM	Tennessee Titans
17	Sun	Cleveland Browns	Pittsburgh Steelers	1:00 PM	Pittsburgh Steelers
17	Sun	Dallas Cowboys	Washington Redskins	1:00 PM	Dallas Cowboys
17	Sun	Kansas City Chiefs	Denver Broncos	4:15 PM	Denver Broncos
17	Sun	Oakland Raiders	San Diego Chargers	4:15 PM	San Diego Chargers
17	Sun	St. Louis Rams	Seattle Seahawks	4:15 PM	Seattle Seahawks
17	Sun	Arizona Cardinals	San Francisco 49ers	4:15 PM	San Francisco 49ers

I’m short on time this week, so let’s move on to the weekly Power Rankings.

[As always, the number of wins I’m projecting each team to finish the season with is in column 3. The fourth column – PWIN – shows how many wins I projected last week, and the difference column represents how many wins I added or subtracted this week. The “RSOS” column stands for the remaining SOS for the team, based on the number of projected wins I’m giving to each of their opponents. The “RHG” column stands for remaining home games.]

Team	Rec	Wins	PrvWin	Diff	RemSOS	RemHG	Comment
Houston Texans	12-2	14	13	1	0.563	1	One game away from clinching the #1 seed in the AFC. That's huge -- they won't need to beat both Denver and New England to get to their first Super Bowl.
Atlanta Falcons	12-2	13	13	0	0.375	1	A statement win for the Falcons? Unfortunately for Atlanta, regular season games have little upside for them.
Denver Broncos	11-3	13	13	0	0.219	2	I'm still projecting the Broncos to win 13 games. More interestingly, will Peyton Manning become the first player since Ken Anderson to win MVP and Comeback Player of the Year in the same season?
New England Patriots	10-4	12	13	-1	0.281	1	Tom Brady leads the league in ANY/A; if it holds, he will win the ANY/A crown for the third time in his last five full seasons.
Green Bay Packers	10-4	12	11	1	0.438	1	One of the underreported stories of the year: Aaron Rodgers is having a bad year by his lofty standards; he ranks 15th in NY/A after ranking 1st last year.
San Francisco 49ers	10-3-1	11.5	10.5	1	0.5	1	Most non-topical 49ers comment ever: I am really excited to see what LaMichael James does in the playoffs.
Seattle Seahawks	9-5	11	11	0	0.563	2	The 49ers comeback may end up hurting the Seahawks more than the Patriots. Three road games is a tall order for what may be the best team in the NFC.
Chicago Bears	8-6	10	10	0	0.281	0	Last year the Bears started 7-3, but Jay Cutler got hurt and Chicago finished 8-8. This year Chicago started 7-1 but now needs help to make the playoffs.
Indianapolis Colts	9-5	10	10	0	0.5	1	For the 2011 Colts, week 16 was when the worst team in the league won at home against an AFC South playoff team. Andrew Luck needs to make sure the same result doesn't happen in 2012.
New York Giants	8-6	10	10	0	0.406	1	The Ravens started 9-2, the Giants started 6-2. This game has morphed from a potential SB preview to a 'which team can sink the fastest' battle.
Dallas Cowboys	8-6	10	9	1	0.469	1	Did you know that Tony Romo is on pace to throw for around 4900 yards this year and leads the NFL in 4th quarter comebacks?
Baltimore Ravens	9-5	9	10	-1	0.594	1	That offense without Cam Cameron looked an awful lot like that offense with Joe Flacco from the last five years.
Pittsburgh Steelers	7-7	9	9	0	0.438	2	Ben Roethlisberger started the season white hot -- the Steelers need him to finish that way if 2012 won't be considered a lost year.
Washington Redskins	8-6	9	9	0	0.438	1	Will Robert Griffin III play this weekend? Washington can probably beat the Eagles without him, but I don't love the idea of Kirk Cousins going up against the Cowboys in week 17.
Cincinnati Bengals	8-6	9	8	1	0.563	1	This team has the feel of an 8-8 team, and if they don't want to end up that way, they're going to have to beat one of the big brothers of the AFC North.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6-8	8	7	1	0.609	1	Tampa Bay is 2-7 in one-score games, arguably the worst such record in the league.
Minnesota Vikings	8-6	8	7	1	0.813	1	Adrian Peterson is more likely to break Eric Dickerson's record than the Vikings are to make the playoffs.
New York Jets	6-8	7	8	-1	0.375	1	The Mark Sanchez era is over, for now. It's only six games too late, and now the Jets won't be able to really find out what they have in either Tim Tebow or Greg McElroy.
Miami Dolphins	6-8	7	7	0	0.563	1	Not a terrible inaugural season for Joe Philbin, especially after how things looked after Hard Knocks.
Carolina Panthers	5-9	7	6	1	0.313	1	Cam Newton and the Panthers just keep winning.
St. Louis Rams	6-7-1	6.5	7.5	-1	0.594	0	Sam Bradford did not have a great season, but he showed enough improvement considering the lack of weapons around him to give Rams fans hope.
San Diego Chargers	5-9	6	7	-1	0.344	1	Norv Turner can't save his job with wins over the Jets and Raiders, right? Right?!
New Orleans Saints	6-8	6	6	0	0.531	1	Drew Brees still leads the league in both passing touchdowns and interceptions. For the second year in a row.
Buffalo Bills	5-9	6	6	0	0.438	1	An embarrassing performance against Seattle; Canadians aren't going to become Bills fans anytime soon.
Tennessee Titans	5-9	6	5	1	0.438	1	Did Titans fans enjoy that win over the Jets? They couldn't have, right?
Cleveland Browns	5-9	5	6	-1	0.688	0	While it seems like the Browns have made some progress this year, will they be rebuilding in 2013?
Arizona Cardinals	5-9	5	4	1	0.672	1	I like what Aaron Schatz said on twitter: They should put Larry Fitzgerald in the Pro Bowl just so he can play with a real quarterback at least once this year
Detroit Lions	4-10	4	5	-1	0.719	2	Calvin Johnson is going to break Jerry Rice's record, but fans should take the achievement with a grain of salt considering the record number of Lions pass attempts.
Philadelphia Eagles	4-10	4	5	-1	0.594	1	Even Andy Reid has to know he only has two more games left with the Eagles, right?
Oakland Raiders	4-10	4	4	0	0.406	0	Will we see more of Terrelle Pryor this week?
Jacksonville Jaguars	2-12	2	3	-1	0.563	1	Jaguars should have the #2 pick locked up, and hope for a "slip" by the Chiefs in the next two weeks.
Kansas City Chiefs	2-12	2	3	-1	0.719	1	A miserable season in Kansas City is about to come to an end.

Tagged as: 2012 Power Rankings

{ 3 comments }

Looking back: The most surprising games of the year

by Chase Stuart on December 19, 2012

in SRS

Five weeks ago, I looked at the most surprising results of the season. It’s time to update that post now that most of the season is in the books.

First, we need to rank the teams. The table below shows each team’s current Simple Rating System rating through week 15. As a reminder, the SRS is simply the sum of a team’s margin of victory and strength of schedule.

Rk	Team	G	MOV	SOS	SRS
1	New England Patriots	14	13.4	-0.2	13.3
2	San Francisco 49ers	14	9.9	1.7	11.7
3	Seattle Seahawks	14	9.8	1.2	10.9
4	Denver Broncos	14	10.1	-0.7	9.4
5	Atlanta Falcons	14	8	-1	7
6	New York Giants	14	4.9	1.7	6.6
7	Chicago Bears	14	5.4	0.8	6.2
8	Houston Texans	14	8.1	-2	6.1
9	Green Bay Packers	14	3.7	1.6	5.3
10	Washington Redskins	14	2.2	1	3.2
11	Baltimore Ravens	14	2.9	-0.8	2.1
12	New Orleans Saints	14	0.7	1.1	1.8
13	Cincinnati Bengals	14	4.4	-2.8	1.7
14	Minnesota Vikings	14	0.8	0.5	1.3
15	Dallas Cowboys	14	-0.8	1.7	0.9
16	Carolina Panthers	14	-1.6	2.1	0.5
17	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	14	0.4	-0.2	0.2
18	Pittsburgh Steelers	14	1.2	-1.9	-0.7
19	St. Louis Rams	14	-4.3	3	-1.3
20	Miami Dolphins	14	-1.1	-1	-2.1
21	San Diego Chargers	14	-0.9	-1.5	-2.4
22	Detroit Lions	14	-3.1	0.6	-2.5
23	Arizona Cardinals	14	-5.6	2.5	-3.1
24	New York Jets	14	-4.6	0.8	-3.8
25	Cleveland Browns	14	-2.6	-2.2	-4.7
26	Indianapolis Colts	14	-3.5	-2.3	-5.8
27	Buffalo Bills	14	-6.9	-0.1	-6.9
28	Philadelphia Eagles	14	-8.7	1	-7.7
29	Tennessee Titans	14	-7.9	-0.7	-8.7
30	Oakland Raiders	14	-10.4	-1.3	-11.7
31	Jacksonville Jaguars	14	-11.7	-1.5	-13.2
32	Kansas City Chiefs	14	-12.3	-1.3	-13.6

Half the time, Eli does not like being surprised.

Now that we have each team’s SRS score, it’s easy to come up with a projected game score. For example, since Miami has an SRS of -2.1 and Tennessee has an SRS of -8.7, this means the Dolphins are 6.5 points (rounding error) better than the Titans. Therefore, if Tennessee played at Miami, we would expect Miami to win by 9.5 points.

Well, Tennessee did travel to Miami, but the Titans won the game 37-3. Ouch. Instead of a 9.5-point win, the Dolphins suffered a 34-point loss. Therefore, this game was shocking to the tune of -43.5 points from the standpoint of the Dolphins. That makes it the most surprising game of the year.

Such a method is obviously going to be slanted towards blowouts. What if we wanted to just know which results were the most shocking? If you sort the table below by EXP_MOV — that’s the expected score — and type in “Loss” in the search box, you can see the biggest upsets.

According to the SRS, there were two huge upsets this year that only look more surprising in retrospect. The Patriots should have beaten the Cardinals by 19.4 points in Foxboro, but somehow lost in the final seconds. Meanwhile, the Saints at home against the Chiefs projected as an 18.4-point New Orleans win; it ended up being a Kansas City overtime victory.
[continue reading…]

{ 4 comments }

NYT Fifth Down: Post-week 15

by Chase Stuart on December 18, 2012

in NYT

A double post at the New York Times this week.

Did you know that Alex Smith is seven attempts away from qualifying for eligibility for certain rate-based statistics? If Jim Harbaugh wants to game the system — and this is Harbaugh — he could ptobably that Smith breaks the completion percentage record, set by Drew Brees in 2011.

I also looked at how the playoff field will be very familiar this year:

With two weeks remaining in the N.F.L. regular season, seven teams have clinched a playoff berth and several more can clinch this weekend. Chances are, two weeks from now, the teams in the playoffs will look pretty familiar to N.F.L. fans.

In the A.F.C. in 2011, the Patriots, the Ravens, the Texans and the Broncos won the East, North, South and West Divisions. New England, Houston and Denver have already clinched their divisions in 2012, and even the free-falling Ravens are still the favorites to win the A.F.C. North. That would give the conference four repeat division winners, a first since the league moved to the four-division format in 2002.

Last year, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals were the two wild-card teams. Well, those two teams are currently battling for a wild-card spot, and it would be a surprise if both teams are left out of the playoffs. That would leave one spot in the A.F.C., which is most likely going to go to the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts did not make the playoffs in 2011 — in fact, the team had the worst record in the league — but they did make the playoffs every year from 2002 to 2010.

From 2009 to 2011, half of the conference — the Ravens (6), Jets (6), Patriots (5), Steelers (4), Colts (4), Broncos (2), Texans (2), and Bengals (2) — played in 31 of the A.F.C.’s 33 playoff games, and barring the miraculous (the 6-8 Dolphins are technically still alive), that won’t change this year. The last time a Tom Brady-led team didn’t make the playoffs was in 2002; the last time Peyton Manning’s team missed out on the postseason was in 2001. In the A.F.C., some things never change.

The N.F.C. features only slightly more turnover. Green Bay is going to the playoffs for the fourth straight season while Atlanta will be there for the fourth time in the five-year Matt Ryan/Mike Smith“>Mike Smith era. San Francisco has a good chance of securing a first-round bye for the second year in a row. That leaves just three remaining spots.

Seattle, winner of a playoff game just two years ago, is likely to be back in the postseason as well. The Giants, winners of two of the last five Super Bowls, will make the playoffs if they win their final two games. Chicago and Dallas are no strangers to the playoffs, and one might make it again this year. The real “surprise” teams in the N.F.C. are Minnesota — which did go to the N.F.C. championship game three years ago — and Washington. Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III were the first two picks in the draft and may power their teams to the playoffs this year. When it comes to the 2012 season, that qualifies as unpredictable.

Your weekly updates on Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson

At this point, it’s getting impossible to write a statistical column without talking about Adrian Peterson“>Adrian Peterson. The Vikings gained just 322 yards against the Rams on Sunday, but Adrian Peterson“>Adrian Peterson ran for 212, accounting for 66 percent of the Minnesota offense. It was the fourth time this season — and in the last two months — that Peterson has rushed for at least 8 yards per carry on 15-plus carries; since 1960, only Barry Sanders (5) and Peterson have accomplished such a feat in a season.

In one of the most incredible stats of this or any year, Peterson has rushed for 1,313 yards in his last eight games, the most by a player in an eight-game stretch since at least 1960. From 1960 to 2011, only four men rushed for 1,200 yards in that span. In 1977, Walter Payton rushed for 1,221 yards over an eight-game stretch; three years later, Earl Campbell rushed for 1,245 yards in half a season. In 2005, Kansas City’s Larry Johnson gained 1,244 rushing yards in the last eight games of the year. Before Peterson, Eric Dickerson held the record for rushing yards in an eight-game stretch; Dickerson rushed for 1,292 yards in the last five games of the ’84 season and the first three games of 1985.

For more on Peterson and Calvin Johnson, along with some interesting week 15 stats, check the full article here.

Tagged as: Adrian Peterson, Broncos, C.J. Spiller, Calvin Johnson, Patriots

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Checkdowns: Biggest failed comebacks

by Chase Stuart on December 18, 2012

in Checkdowns, History

Brady joins Marino on the failed comebacks list.

[UPDATE: There was an error earlier in this post. I believe it is fixed now.]

On Sunday Night, the Patriots trailed 31-3 halfway through the third quarter. But that’s when Tom Brady got hot, and New England tied the game with 6:43 left in the 4th quarter. At that moment, many fans probably had visions of the Oilers-Bills playoff game, where Buffalo came back from a 32-point deficit to win.

And while there are a lot of famous comebacks, the failed comeback is much less memorable. But in fact, this was the 4th time a team trailed by 28 points in the game only to tie or take the lead in the 4th quarter… but ultimately lose.

The table below shows all games prior to 2012 where a team trailed by at least 21 points, was trailing entering the 4th quarter, came back to tie or take the lead in the 4th quarter, but then still lost. The table is listed from the perspective of the eventual winner and shows the final points for and points allowed in the game, along with the biggest lead and the largest fourth-quarter deficit the winning team faced despite the large early lead.

Year	Date	Boxscore	Tm	Opp	PF	PA	BgLd	Def
1994	09/25/1994	Boxscore	MIN	MIA	38	35	28	0
1944	09/24/1944	Boxscore	GNB	CHI	42	28	28	0
2007	10/21/2007	Boxscore	TEN	HOU	38	36	25	-1
2004	12/12/2004	Boxscore	SFO	ARI	31	28	25	0
1980	12/07/1980	Boxscore	CIN	BAL	34	33	25	-2
1987	10/25/1987	Boxscore	GNB	DET	34	33	24	-2
1981	01/02/1982	Boxscore	SDG	MIA	41	38	24	-7
1996	09/22/1996	Boxscore	NWE	JAX	28	25	22	0
2010	12/13/2010	Boxscore	BAL	HOU	34	28	21	0
2009	10/11/2009	Boxscore	ARI	HOU	28	21	21	0
2009	01/10/2010	Boxscore	ARI	GNB	51	45	21	0
2009	01/10/2010	Boxscore	ARI	GNB	51	45	21	0
2008	09/14/2008	Boxscore	GNB	DET	48	25	21	-1
2006	12/17/2006	Boxscore	CHI	TAM	34	31	21	0
2004	10/10/2004	Boxscore	MIN	HOU	34	28	21	0
2003	11/30/2003	Boxscore	NWE	IND	38	34	21	0
1999	12/12/1999	Boxscore	KAN	MIN	31	28	21	0
1998	12/06/1998	Boxscore	SFO	CAR	31	28	21	0
1995	11/19/1995	Boxscore	DEN	SDG	30	27	21	0
1993	09/12/1993	Boxscore	NOR	ATL	34	31	21	0
1993	01/03/1994	Boxscore	PHI	SFO	37	34	21	0
1991	11/17/1991	Boxscore	NYJ	NWE	28	21	21	0
1990	10/07/1990	Boxscore	CIN	RAM	34	31	21	0
1990	10/07/1990	Boxscore	CIN	RAM	34	31	21	0
1989	09/10/1989	Boxscore	NWE	NYJ	27	24	21	-3
1986	11/20/1986	Boxscore	RAI	SDG	37	31	21	0
1983	01/08/1984	Boxscore	WAS	SFO	24	21	21	0
1980	11/23/1980	Boxscore	NYJ	HOU	31	28	21	0
1980	11/23/1980	Boxscore	NYJ	HOU	31	28	21	0
1979	09/09/1979	Boxscore	WAS	DET	27	24	21	0
1975	11/30/1975	Boxscore	WAS	MIN	31	30	21	-6
1960	11/06/1960	Boxscore	BAL	GNB	38	24	21	0
1949	10/23/1949	Boxscore	NYG	CHI	35	28	21	0
1945	11/04/1945	Boxscore	WAS	CRD	24	21	21	0

Note that this excludes games this game between Green Bay and Pittsburgh from 1951, where the Packers held a 28-point lead and won, but actually trailed entering the 4th quarter.

Tagged as: 49ers, Comebacks, Patriots, Tom Brady

{ 1 comment }

Checkdowns: SRS-Style Quarterback Ratings

by Neil Paine on December 17, 2012

in Checkdowns, Quarterbacks, SRS, Statgeekery

Here’s a quick set of quarterback ratings I was messing around with, based on Doug’s Simple Rating System. The basic setup: I took every passer-game (Att > 0) since the 2010 season, weighting for recency according to Wayne Winston’s method. I ran the data through the SRS to adjust for the quality of opponent pass defenses, creating a predicted Net YPA rate for each passer in each game via the following formula:

Predicted NYPA = League Constant + Home-Field Advantage + Passer Rating – Opponent Pass D Rating

The league constant in this case was a Net YPA of 6.24; the homefield component (which was positive while at home, negative on the road, and 0 in Super Bowls) was 0.05. Minimize the sum of squared errors between predicted and actual NYPA for each passer-game (weighted by recency and how many dropbacks the passer had in the game), and you’ve got a set of opponent-adjusted, recency-weighted QB ratings.

Throwing out the Brett Favres and Curtis Painters of the world who haven’t been active this year, here are the full ratings:

Player	Wgtd Drpbks	NYPA Rating
Mohamed Sanu	0.6	60.94
Brian Hoyer	0.2	9.80
Shaun Hill	8.8	5.13
Derek Anderson	2.9	3.96
Kirk Cousins	47.2	2.37
Chase Daniel	1.2	2.02
Matt Flynn	13.2	1.74
Tom Brady	467.0	1.23
Kyle Orton	20.7	1.16
Russell Wilson	266.0	0.95
Robert Griffin III	257.7	0.92
Peyton Manning	382.9	0.78
Drew Brees	472.3	0.75
Matt Ryan	440.8	0.73
Colin Kaepernick	147.4	0.72
Eli Manning	399.1	0.64
Cam Newton	359.5	0.64
Tony Romo	468.3	0.54
Aaron Rodgers	394.9	0.50
Kellen Clemens	9.7	0.45
Matt Schaub	376.3	0.39
Alex Smith	176.1	0.39
Charlie Batch	66.1	0.37
Josh Freeman	395.0	0.28
Ben Roethlisberger	324.6	0.23
Carson Palmer	445.6	0.15
Matthew Stafford	521.2	0.10
Joe Flacco	410.4	0.00
Rusty Smith	3.3	-0.03
Tyrod Taylor	2.5	-0.10
Andrew Luck	433.0	-0.11
Jake Locker	192.4	-0.11
Sam Bradford	399.1	-0.15
Josh McCown	4.7	-0.17
Matt Moore	36.9	-0.18
Tarvaris Jackson	26.4	-0.20
Ryan Tannehill	320.8	-0.20
Rex Grossman	27.3	-0.21
Jordan Palmer	0.0	-0.27
Michael Vick	231.4	-0.30
Brandon Weeden	367.1	-0.40
Andy Dalton	395.9	-0.40
Dennis Dixon	0.1	-0.41
Ryan Fitzpatrick	374.6	-0.43
Jay Cutler	307.5	-0.43
Philip Rivers	419.2	-0.49
Drew Stanton	0.5	-0.56
Matt Hasselbeck	181.8	-0.58
Chad Henne	212.4	-0.59
Matt Cassel	196.9	-0.62
Mark Sanchez	318.0	-0.69
Dan Orlovsky	21.3	-0.76
Joe Webb	5.3	-0.77
Tyler Thigpen	6.2	-0.88
Colt McCoy	24.7	-0.90
Tim Tebow	28.3	-0.96
John Skelton	172.9	-1.04
Bruce Gradkowski	1.4	-1.09
Nick Foles	205.3	-1.16
Blaine Gabbert	213.0	-1.23
Christian Ponder	334.1	-1.23
T.J. Yates	22.1	-1.24
Kevin Kolb	132.1	-1.38
Jason Campbell	55.1	-1.46
Brady Quinn	147.2	-1.49
Charlie Whitehurst	3.3	-1.91
Byron Leftwich	45.4	-2.13
Trent Edwards	0.4	-2.13
Luke McCown	2.5	-2.14
Jimmy Clausen	1.3	-2.17
Ryan Mallett	3.1	-2.26
Caleb Hanie	7.9	-2.30
Ryan Lindley	133.6	-2.37
Greg McElroy	7.0	-2.51
Graham Harrell	2.0	-2.79
David Carr	1.2	-4.09
Matt Leinart	1.6	-4.71
Brad Smith	0.7	-6.04
Terrelle Pryor	1.0	-7.09

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Adjusting team sack rates in the NFL for SOS

by Chase Stuart on December 17, 2012

in Defensive Players

I’ve got sacks on the mind today. A few hours ago, I looked at the single-season sack records by various players in both the 3-4 and 4-3. Today I also want to look at things from the team perspective. In 2012, which team is the best at getting to the quarterback? You might think that’s as simple as looking at a list of defensive statistics and sorting by sacks, but I’d like to take a more nuanced approach.

There are two factors that heavily impact a team’s sack rate: the opponents they face and the number of passing plays they defend. Using sack rate instead of sacks helps to solve the latter issue, but we still need an opponent adjustment even if we use sack rate. It’s a bit tricky doing it correctly, because you need to iterate the results just like you do with the SRS. What I mean by that is the sack rate of the Denver defense will need to be adjusted for the sack rate of the Kansas City, Oakland, and San Diego offenses (among other teams), and those will need to be adjusted for the Denver defense (and all the other defenses those teams faced).

Once you properly iterate the results, what are the results? The table below shows the top defenses this year at getting to the quarterback, although note that these numbers exclude the games from week 15. The table shows how many pass attempts each team has faced, the number of actual sacks they have recorded and their actual sack rate; the next column shows the SOS adjustment to the sack rate, with a positive number indicating a difficult strength of schedule (i.e., they’ve faced teams that are difficult to sack). The last two columns show the SOS-adjusted sack rates and total sacks.

Rk	Team	ATT	ACT SK	SK RT	SOS	ADJ SK RT	ADJ SK
1	DEN	506	39	7.7%	0.9%	8.6%	43.3
2	CIN	542	43	7.9%	0.5%	8.4%	45.7
3	ARI	426	34	8%	-0.5%	7.4%	31.7
4	DAL	429	29	6.8%	0.3%	7.1%	30.4
5	CAR	483	30	6.2%	0.9%	7.1%	34.2
6	KAN	389	24	6.2%	0.9%	7.1%	27.5
7	STL	489	39	8%	-1.2%	6.8%	33.1
8	PHI	467	28	6%	0.8%	6.8%	31.6
9	HOU	533	37	6.9%	-0.2%	6.7%	35.9
10	MIA	532	37	7%	-0.2%	6.7%	35.7
11	GNB	524	35	6.7%	-0.1%	6.6%	34.6
12	BAL	506	30	5.9%	0.6%	6.6%	33.3
13	CLE	531	34	6.4%	0.2%	6.6%	34.8
14	NYG	464	31	6.7%	-0.1%	6.5%	30.4
15	SFO	478	32	6.7%	-0.4%	6.3%	30.3
16	PIT	434	26	6%	0.3%	6.3%	27.4
17	ATL	463	28	6%	0.3%	6.3%	29.2
18	BUF	484	31	6.4%	-0.2%	6.2%	30.2
19	CHI	498	33	6.6%	-0.5%	6.1%	30.6
20	SDG	508	25	4.9%	1%	5.9%	30
21	TEN	481	27	5.6%	0.3%	5.9%	28.3
22	SEA	475	32	6.7%	-1.1%	5.7%	27
23	NWE	511	28	5.5%	-0.1%	5.3%	27.3
24	NOR	496	25	5%	0.2%	5.3%	26.1
25	MIN	515	31	6%	-0.8%	5.2%	27
26	DET	490	30	6.1%	-1.1%	5%	24.4
27	WAS	539	23	4.3%	0.7%	4.9%	26.6
28	TAM	541	24	4.4%	0.5%	4.9%	26.5
29	NYJ	446	22	4.9%	-0.1%	4.8%	21.5
30	IND	470	24	5.1%	-0.4%	4.7%	22.3
31	OAK	465	17	3.7%	0.7%	4.3%	20.1
32	JAX	464	14	3%	0%	3%	14

[continue reading…]

Tagged as: Christian Ponder, Peyton Manning, Sacks, Von Miller

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J.J. Watt breaks sack record — for 3-4 defensive linemen

by Chase Stuart on December 16, 2012

in Defensive Players

J.J. Swatt.

Houston’s J.J. Watt sacked Andrew Luck three times on Sunday, bringing his season sack total to 19.5. Entering 2012, Bruce Smith was the single-season record holder for sacks by a defensive lineman in a 3-4 scheme with 19 in 1990. The sack has only been an official statistic since 1982, but since the 3-4 only entered the NFL in the mid-’70s, we can be pretty sure that Watt is now the all-time record holder.

The tables below show the single-season leaders by various defensive players in 3-4 and 4-3 schemes from 1982 to 2011.

Let’s start with a look at the most sacks by a 3-4 defensive end:

Year	Team	Name	Pos	Sacks
1990	BUF	Bruce Smith	3-4 DE	19
1983	SFO	Fred Dean	3-4 DE	17.5
1984	PHI	Greg Brown	3-4 DE	16
1983	MIA	Doug Betters	3-4 DE	16
1983	SEA	Jacob Green	3-4 DE	16
1992	NOR	Wayne Martin	3-4 DE	15.5
1986	RAI	Sean Jones	3-4 DE	15.5
1985	NYG	Leonard Marshall	3-4 DE	15.5
1993	KAN	Neil Smith	3-4 DE	15
1986	SDG	Lee Williams	3-4 DE	15
1986	BUF	Bruce Smith	3-4 DE	15
1984	KAN	Art Still	3-4 DE	14.5
1984	SEA	Jeff Bryant	3-4 DE	14.5
1983	GNB	Ezra Johnson	3-4 DE	14.5
1997	BUF	Bruce Smith	3-4 DE	14
1993	BUF	Bruce Smith	3-4 DE	14
1992	BUF	Bruce Smith	3-4 DE	14
1989	SDG	Lee Williams	3-4 DE	14
1984	MIA	Doug Betters	3-4 DE	14
1984	CLE	Reggie Camp	3-4 DE	14
1983	PIT	Keith Willis	3-4 DE	14

As you can imagine, 3-4 defensive linemen don’t rack up many sacks. Bill Pickel, a nose tackle for the Raiders in the ’80s, recorded 12.5 sacks in both ’84 and ’85, making him the only 3-4 tackle to record more than 12 sacks in a season. Karl Mecklenburg, with 13 sacks for the Broncos in ’85, remains the only inside linebacker in a 3-4 with more than a dozen sacks.

Of course, 3-4 outside linebackers get all the glory in that scheme. San Francisco’s Aldon Smith has 19.5 sacks so far in 2012 with two games remaining, but here were the leaders prior to 2012:

Year	Team	Name	Pos	Sacks
1986	NYG	Lawrence Taylor	3-4 OLB	20.5
2008	DAL	DeMarcus Ware	3-4 OLB	20
1990	KAN	Derrick Thomas	3-4 OLB	20
2011	DAL	DeMarcus Ware	3-4 OLB	19.5
1989	GNB	Tim Harris	3-4 OLB	19.5
1984	NWE	Andre Tippett	3-4 OLB	18.5
2008	MIA	Joey Porter	3-4 OLB	17.5
1995	BUF	Bryce Paup	3-4 OLB	17.5
2009	DEN	Elvis Dumervil	3-4 OLB	17
2006	SDG	Shawne Merriman	3-4 OLB	17
1992	SFO	Tim Harris	3-4 OLB	17
1991	NOR	Pat Swilling	3-4 OLB	17
1989	NOR	Pat Swilling	3-4 OLB	16.5
1989	RAM	Kevin Greene	3-4 OLB	16.5
1988	RAM	Kevin Greene	3-4 OLB	16.5
1985	NWE	Andre Tippett	3-4 OLB	16.5
2008	PIT	James Harrison	3-4 OLB	16
1992	DEN	Simon Fletcher	3-4 OLB	16
1990	SFO	Charles Haley	3-4 OLB	16
2010	DAL	DeMarcus Ware	3-4 OLB	15.5
1988	NYG	Lawrence Taylor	3-4 OLB	15.5
1998	CAR	Kevin Greene	3-4 OLB	15
1989	NYG	Lawrence Taylor	3-4 OLB	15
1984	PIT	Mike Merriweather	3-4 OLB	15

What about 4-3 defensive ends?

Year	Team	Name	Pos	Sacks
2001	NYG	Michael Strahan	4-3 DE	22.5
2011	MIN	Jared Allen	4-3 DE	22
1984	NYJ	Mark Gastineau	4-3 DE	22
1989	MIN	Chris Doleman	4-3 DE	21
1987	PHI	Reggie White	4-3 DE	21
1992	PHI	Clyde Simmons	4-3 DE	19
1983	NYJ	Mark Gastineau	4-3 DE	19
2003	NYG	Michael Strahan	4-3 DE	18.5
2002	MIA	Jason Taylor	4-3 DE	18.5
1986	WAS	Dexter Manley	4-3 DE	18.5
2011	PHI	Jason Babin	4-3 DE	18
1988	PHI	Reggie White	4-3 DE	18
1984	CHI	Richard Dent	4-3 DE	17.5
1999	STL	Kevin Carter	4-3 DE	17
1992	SDG	Leslie O'Neal	4-3 DE	17
1985	CHI	Richard Dent	4-3 DE	17
2011	NYG	Jason Pierre-Paul	4-3 DE	16.5
2008	ATL	John Abraham	4-3 DE	16.5
2000	MIA	Trace Armstrong	4-3 DE	16.5
1999	ARI	Simeon Rice	4-3 DE	16.5
1998	SEA	Michael Sinclair	4-3 DE	16.5
2005	OAK	Derrick Burgess	4-3 DE	16
2004	IND	Dwight Freeney	4-3 DE	16
1998	GNB	Reggie White	4-3 DE	16
1983	STL	Curtis Greer	4-3 DE	16

And 4-3 defensive tackles:

Year	Team	Name	Pos	Sacks
1989	MIN	Keith Millard	4-3 DT	18
1986	PHI	Reggie White	4-3 DT	18
2000	NOR	La'Roi Glover	4-3 DT	17
2000	TAM	Warren Sapp	4-3 DT	16.5
1997	MIN	John Randle	4-3 DT	15.5
1997	SFO	Dana Stubblefield	4-3 DT	15
1992	SEA	Cortez Kennedy	4-3 DT	14

4-3 outside linebackers rarely rack up huge sack numbers. In fact, Denver’s Von Miller, who has 16 sacks this year, is already the record holder in the official sack era. Derrick Thomas (14.5 sacks in 1992, 13 in 1996) in Kansas City, Washington’s Ken Harvey (13.5 in ’94) and Cleveland’s Jamir Miller (13 in ’01) are the only other 4-3 outside linebackers with more than twelve sacks in a season since 1982. (Of course, Thomas also had a 20-sack season a 3-4 outside linebacker.) Charlie Clemons, with 13.5 sacks in 2001, is the record holder among 4-3 middle linebackers.

Tagged as: Aldon Smith, Bruce Smith, J.J. Watt, Sacks, Von Miller

{ 2 comments }

Trivia of the Day – Sunday, December 16th

by Chase Stuart on December 16, 2012

in Trivia

Manning finds the last empty spot on his trophy case.

What do you give to the man who already has everything? How about a Comeback Player of the Year Award?

Right now, the choice for AP Comeback Player of the Year is a two-horse race between Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson. If Manning wins the award, it will put him in pretty rare territory: he’d be just the fourth player to, over the course of a career, be named by the Associated Press as the Most Valuable Player of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year, and Super Bowl MVP. Can you name the first three?

Below is one hint for each of the three players who have won all three awards.

Trivia hint for Player 1	Select Show
He is still an active player.

Click 'Show' for the Answer for Player 1	Select Show
Tom Brady was named the Super Bowl MVP after the 2001 and 2003 seasons, the MVP in ’07 and ’10, and the Comeback Player of the Year in 2009.

Trivia hint for Player 2	Select Show
In between winning a Super Bowl MVP and the MVP award, this player suffered a ruptured disk in his back that was supposed to end his season and perhaps his career; he came back two months later and played well enough to win the AP Comeback Player of the Year award.

Click 'Show' for the Answer for Player 2	Select Show
Joe Montana was a Super Bowl MVP in ’81, ’84, and ’89, and he was named the game’s Most Valuable Player in 1989. But in the middle of his career, he pulled off one of his greatest tricks, winning Comeback Player of the Year award in the same year he was injured.

Trivia hint for Player 3	Select Show
This guy is the king of hardware. He has an MVP, a Super Bowl MVP, a Comeback Player of the Year…. and an AP Offensive Player of the Year award, an AP Offensive Rookie of the Year award, and a Heisman Trophy. That’s one full trophy case.

Click 'Show' for the Answer for Player 3	Select Show
Marcus Allen may not have been the best player of all time but it’s hard to find a more decorated one. He became the first collegiate player to rush for 2,000 yards in a season and won the Heisman Trophy in 1981 at USC. The next year he won the Rookie of the Year award, and two years later he picked up a Super Bowl MVP award. Two years after that he was named the AP’s MVP, and then eight years later — in his first year out of Al Davis’ grasp — he was named the AP Comeback Player of the Year while playing with the Chiefs and leading the NFL in rushing touchdowns.

Click 'Show' for the Answer for Player 3

Show

Tagged as: Awards, Comeback Player of the Year, Peyton Manning, Weekend Trivia

{ 5 comments }

From the Colorado School of Mines to the NFL

by Chase Stuart on December 15, 2012

in Coaches, Strategy

Unless you follow Division II football, you probably aren’t familiar with the name Bob Stitt. He’s the head coach at the Colorado School of Mines, and here is what Bruce Feldman wrote about him in the summer of 2011 in connection with the One-Back Clinic, an annual meeting of a few of the sharpest minds in college football:

Stitt is the 45-year-old head coach at Colorado School of Mines, a Division II school just down the road from the Coors facility in Golden, Co. Stitt is a regular to the one-back clinic and has become pals with [Dana] Holgorsen and the rest of the core crowd. His teams win big despite dealing with high academic requirements… Stitt’s topic is the pistol offense and back-shoulder throws. As you’ll find out, Stitt is a huge believer in the back-shoulder throw. He talks about it the way Jared talks about Subway. “If this stuff works with our guys, it’ll probably work with the guys you have,” he says. “We’re an engineering school, and we only have one major, engineering. Our average ACT score in math is 29.” That line draws the biggest “Oooh!” of the day. . . .

The tricky part of Stitt’s tact — as is the case with many of the things discussed here — is that it’s hard to say just how well these things could be replicated someplace else. “I love coming to this because it reinforces a lot of what we do, ” one coach says. “Sometimes you might get one or two things you can try out from a technique or a practice point.” It’s also pretty good for networking because you never know what position might open a few months from now.

That was only a year and a half ago, but Stitt’s fame has grown considerably since then. He’s become famous in some circles for the Fly Sweep, a play brought to the national state when Holgorsen repeatedly used the Fly Sweep in the Orange Bowl eleven months ago. So what is the Fly Sweep?

On most plays, West Virginia has Geno Smith in shotgun in a fairly standard shotgun spread look. On the Fly Sweep, the Mountaineers would motion a wide receiver/running back, usually Tavon Austin, before the snap, and have him accelerate as he approached the quarterback. When well-executed, the snap would arrive in Smith’s hands for just a fraction of a second before he would pitch the ball forward to Austin, who would be arriving between the center and the quarterback just a second after the ball was snapped. Already in motion and with the ball in his hands, Austin would then be able to use his considerable speed and quickness to get in space and rack up yards against an unprepared defense.

Well, in the Orange Bowl, it was executed perfectly. For four touchdowns. Take a look:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Gu62DFo9-w

One of the benefits of the play is that it is low risk: if the quarterback/sweep exchange is mishandled, it’s simply an incomplete pass because the quarterback is technically throwing the ball forwards. So why the post today? Well, last week, the Stitt Sweep (my post, I get to pick the name) entered the NFL. I’m not sure if Jay Gruden picked up the play from his time in the Arena Football League or the World Football League — or maybe from just watching last year’s Orange Bowl — but there’s no doubt where the inspiration came from the Bengals first touchdown of the game against the Cowboys. You can see Andy Dalton’s touchdown “pass” to Andrew Hawkins at the 40-second mark of this video.

Tagged as: Bengals, Bob Stitt, Dana Holgorsen, Fly Sweep, Jay Gruden

{ 1 comment }

Checkdowns: Elo-Ratings for NFL teams

by Chase Stuart on December 14, 2012

in Checkdowns, SRS

So we're going to pretend all my losses were by 1 point?

Just a quick Friday night checkdown post. By now, you’re very familiar with the Simple Rating System. I used the SRS to create college football ratings every week this season and used the SRS to grade NFL teams earlier this year. Pro-Football-Reference.com calculates SRS ratings every week and they are always available on their Standings page.

The first S in SRS stands for Simple because the SRS is simply the sum of two variables: a team’s average margin of victory (or points differential) and a team’s strength of schedule.

But what if we only care about wins and losses? Even in that case, we still care about strength of schedule. The BCS mandates that the computer systems used to provide the official BCS ratings ignore margin of victory. Essentially, that’s what I’m doing here. To provide Elo-style ratings for NFL teams, I made each win a one-point win, each loss a one-point loss, and each tie worth 0 points. Therefore, a team’s MOV perfectly matches its record, leaving just the SOS to shuffle the deck.

Is this useful for anything? No. That’s why it’s a Friday night checkdown.

Rk	Team	G	MOV	SOS	SRS	Record
1	Houston Texans	13	0.692	0.011	0.704	11-2-0
2	New England Patriots	13	0.538	0.116	0.654	10-3-0
3	San Francisco 49ers	13	0.462	0.081	0.543	9-3-1
4	Green Bay Packers	13	0.385	0.107	0.492	9-4-0
5	Atlanta Falcons	13	0.692	-0.273	0.42	11-2-0
6	Denver Broncos	13	0.538	-0.166	0.373	10-3-0
7	Chicago Bears	13	0.231	0.121	0.352	8-5-0
8	Seattle Seahawks	13	0.231	0.114	0.345	8-5-0
9	Indianapolis Colts	13	0.385	-0.053	0.332	9-4-0
10	Baltimore Ravens	13	0.385	-0.135	0.249	9-4-0
11	New York Giants	13	0.231	-0.04	0.191	8-5-0
12	St. Louis Rams	13	0	0.175	0.175	6-6-1
13	Minnesota Vikings	13	0.077	0.067	0.144	7-6-0
14	New York Jets	13	-0.077	0.172	0.095	6-7-0
15	Washington Redskins	13	0.077	-0.003	0.074	7-6-0
16	Dallas Cowboys	13	0.077	-0.012	0.065	7-6-0
17	Cincinnati Bengals	14	0.143	-0.203	-0.06	8-6-0
18	Pittsburgh Steelers	13	0.077	-0.138	-0.061	7-6-0
19	Miami Dolphins	13	-0.231	0.126	-0.105	5-8-0
20	Buffalo Bills	13	-0.231	0.067	-0.164	5-8-0
21	Arizona Cardinals	13	-0.385	0.203	-0.181	4-9-0
22	Detroit Lions	13	-0.385	0.188	-0.197	4-9-0
23	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	13	-0.077	-0.162	-0.239	6-7-0
24	Tennessee Titans	13	-0.385	0.134	-0.25	4-9-0
25	New Orleans Saints	13	-0.231	-0.035	-0.266	5-8-0
26	Cleveland Browns	13	-0.231	-0.125	-0.356	5-8-0
27	Carolina Panthers	13	-0.385	0.014	-0.371	4-9-0
28	San Diego Chargers	13	-0.231	-0.165	-0.396	5-8-0
29	Philadelphia Eagles	14	-0.429	-0.048	-0.476	4-10-0
30	Jacksonville Jaguars	13	-0.692	0.141	-0.551	2-11-0
31	Oakland Raiders	13	-0.538	-0.112	-0.651	3-10-0
32	Kansas City Chiefs	13	-0.692	-0.148	-0.84	2-11-0

Tagged as: Elo

{ 2 comments }

What to do on 4th-and-7 in No Man’s Land

by Chase Stuart on December 14, 2012

in Coaches, Strategy

You went to Harvard, help me out on this.

Twice in close games in the last month, an NFL team has arrived at a three-way junction with seemingly no desirable path. In each case, the team faced a 4th and 7 from so-called ‘no man’s land.’

On November 25th, trailing the Atlanta Falcons 24-23, the Buccaneers had the ball on 4th and 7 from the Atlanta 38-yard line with just over three minutes remaining. Greg Schiano had all his timeouts left but faced a very difficult decision.

On Sunday, with 12 minutes remaining and a 12-7 lead, Chan Gailey’s Bills faced a 4th-and-7 from the St. Louis 34-yard-line. It’s worth noting — in part because it was notable to Gailey — that minutes earlier, Buffalo scored a touchdown but Shawn Powell botched the extra point, preventing Buffalo from going up 13-7. I suppose we could dwell on the fact that up 5 with 20 minutes left in the game after scoring a touchdown is an obvious scenario that calls for going for two, but let’s not do that in this post.

In Tampa Bay, Schiano attempted a 56-yard field goal. In Buffalo, with rain but wind at his back, the Bills sent on the field goal unit but then changed their mind and chose to punt, with the botched snap from minutes earlier apparently being a factor in the decision.

Who was right? Who was wrong? If you think this post is just a bunch of words I needed to type to show off a really cool graphic, you’re right. Take a look at this chart Brian Burke made to tell you what to do on 4th down generally:

At the 35-yard-line facing 4th and 7 is not a desirable situation, but Burke does say you should go for it. If you are a few yards closer to the end zone and it’s 4th and 8, then kicking is the advised course of action, while punting is best reserved for more dire circumstances.

What do teams actually do? This year, 15 times a team has faced a 4th-and-7 from between the 34- and the 38-yard lines. Nine times the team chose to kick the field goal, with teams hitting on 5 of those 9; Nick Folk missed from 52 but made from 54, Josh Brown hit from 52, Matt Prater from 53, Robbie Gould from 54, and Sebastian Janikowski from 55, while Dan Bailey and Janikowski missed from 54. The 9th example was in Tampa Bay, where Connor Barth missed from 56 yards out.

As you might expect if you have watched an NFL game before, coaches who chose not to kick the field goal did not entirely embrace the idea of going for it. Twice the Bills sent Shawn Powell out to punt (net of 29 and 24 yards), twice a team punted the ball out of the end zone (Pat McAfee, Dave Zastudil), and Andy Lee pinned the Rams on their four-yard-line with a 33-yard punt.

There was one coach who chose to go for it. It was Marvin Lewis, that beacon of wisdom in a cavernous field of conservative coaches. In the first quarter, trailing 3-0 to the Chiefs, first Lewis called a fake punt and when the drive stalled on the Kansas City 36, he chose to go for it. Andy Dalton scrambled for 11 yards, the Bengals would score a touchdown three plays later, and Cincinnati would go on to win the game, 28-6.

So what is the right call in the NFL’s version of the Bermuda triangle? The first answer is “it depends.” All these league average stats and theories have caveats which are easy to ignore in obvious situations. In close situations, like this one, all those caveats apply. Is it windy or raining? Are you in a dome? How good is your quarterback? What’s the score? How much time is left? And on and on.

Here are my thoughts for the two examples in this post.

Schiano made the wrong call, but probably not for the reason you’re thinking. I’d say Barth had something resembling a 50/50 shot of converting that field goal, but what is the upside if he does? You now have a one-point lead against the Falcons with 3:30 to go and they have the ball. That’s not exactly a desirable scenario. According to Burke, the league average team has a 48% chance of winning if they have 1st and down on their own 22 with 3:30 left and trailing by one point. But this was not a situation involving league average teams. Matt Ryan has led the NFL in 4th quarter comebacks and game-winning drives in two of the last three years. He ranks 10th in ANY/A and 3rd in completion percentage, which might actually matter when your only real goal is gaining 10 yards every four plays. To make matters worse, despite an incredible run defense, Tampa Bay ranks 32nd in both passing yards allowedand net yards per attempt allowed.

If there were six minutes left, maybe this is a different story, but I think there was too little time left to give up the ball like that. You’ve got Josh Freeman — who ranks 4th in ANY/A — going against a mediocre Falcons pass defense. I’d go for it in that situation, because your best path to victory is to gain 7-10 yards and then bleed the clock before kicking the game-winning field goal. I’ll also add this: to the extent that you want to bank on your opponent’s conservatism, punting is not as bad of an option as you might think. If you can down the punt inside the 10, and feel confident that Atlanta would run it three times, then you’re in pretty good. If successful, you would get the ball back with about 3 minutes left (remember, Tampa Bay had all three timeouts) and basically place yourself in that positive situation the Falcons would have been in if the Bucs hit the field goal, except Tampa would have been about 25 yards closer. Of course, I have no idea how much you can count on your opponent being conservative: that would depend on the opponent.

While the clock was the most important variable in the Tampa game, it wasn’t a huge factor in Buffalo. The Bills led by 5 points with 12 minutes to go. In this case, the Bills were at the 34, not the 38, which tilts towards the field goal and away from the punt. On the other hand, there were weather issues at play. In a rare twist, Burke’s calculator essentially has all three options as even, with the Bills having a 77-78% win probability regardless of whether they chose to punt, kick, or go for it. The Bills have a slightly below average passing offense and the Rams a slightly above average passing defense, but neither factor is particular strong. This is one of the closest calls I can think of, as I see good arguments for all three options. The Bills punted and pinned the Rams inside the five, so Chan Gailey won’t face too much criticism.

But while extending a lead from 5 to 8 points doesn’t sound like much, it actually has a significant impact. Down by 8, you need to do a bunch of things well and then convert a two-point conversion and then win in overtime, and those two events only happen 25% of the time. Down by 5 you just need to do a bunch of things well. The weather is an important factor here — Rian Lindell said the wind was at his back, which maybe makes the weather a nonfactor even if it was raining, cold, and windy. In field goals from the 33-, 34-, or 35-yard line since 2009, NFL kickers have been successful 62% of the time. Again, the conditions are a huge variable here, but I think I would have trusted my kicker in this case.

Tagged as: 4th down, Chan Gailey, Greg Schiano

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