Ben Roethlisberger started the first nine games of the season, but things are getting ugly quickly in Pittsburgh. After suffering a right shoulder injury and bruising his ribs against the Chiefs, Byron Leftwich started last weekend against the Ravens. Leftwich injured his ribs against Baltimore, leaving Pittsburgh to now turn to Charlie Batch against the Browns tomorrow.

When was the last time a team started three different quarterbacks in consecutive games? Three teams last year pulled off that feat. After Jason Campbell started the first six games of the season, Kyle Boller started the next week before the team permanently switched to Carson Palmer.

Matt Schaub was the Texans starting quarterback for ten games, but a foot injury ended his season. Matt Leinart took over, but a broken collarbone ended his season, leaving the reins in the hands of rookie T.J. Yates. In St. Louis, an ankle injury caused Sam Bradford to miss a December game against the 49ers, leaving A.J. Feeley to start. Feely injured his right thumb, but Bradford was back the next week. He would miss the rest of the year due to his ankle, though, and Kellen Clemens started the last three games.

So it’s actually not all that rare for a team to go with three different quarterbacks in three weeks; at some point this season, it’s possible the Cardinals will, as well, with John Skelton, Ryan Lindley, and Kevin Kolb. From 2000 to 2011, teams started three different quarterbacks in consecutive games on 36 different occasions:

Tm	Year	GM#	QB	QB	QB
HOU	2011	10-12	Matt Schaub	Matt Leinart	T.J. Yates
OAK	2011	6-8	Jason Campbell	Kyle Boller	Carson Palmer
STL	2011	12-14	A.J. Feeley	Sam Bradford	Kellen Clemens
CAR	2010	8-10	Matt Moore	Jimmy Clausen	Brian St. Pierre
MIA	2010	8-10	Chad Henne	Chad Pennington	Tyler Thigpen
MIA	2010	9-11	Chad Pennington	Tyler Thigpen	Chad Henne
MIN	2010	13-15	Tarvaris Jackson	Brett Favre	Joe Webb
TEN	2010	9-11	Kerry Collins	Vince Young	Rusty Smith
TEN	2010	10-12	Vince Young	Rusty Smith	Kerry Collins
CLE	2008	11-13	Brady Quinn	Derek Anderson	Ken Dorsey
KAN	2008	1-3	Brodie Croyle	Damon Huard	Tyler Thigpen
KAN	2008	5-7	Damon Huard	Brodie Croyle	Tyler Thigpen
SEA	2008	4-6	Matt Hasselbeck	Charlie Frye	Seneca Wallace
MIN	2007	7-9	Kelly Holcomb	Tarvaris Jackson	Brooks Bollinger
STL	2007	11-13	Marc Bulger	Gus Frerotte	Brock Berlin
STL	2007	12-14	Gus Frerotte	Brock Berlin	Marc Bulger
NYJ	2005	3-5	Chad Pennington	Brooks Bollinger	Vinny Testaverde
PIT	2005	9-11	Charlie Batch	Tommy Maddox	Ben Roethlisberger
STL	2005	10-12	Marc Bulger	Jamie Martin	Ryan Fitzpatrick
SFO	2005	6-8	Alex Smith	Ken Dorsey	Cody Pickett
ARI	2004	11-13	Shaun King	John Navarre	Josh McCown
TAM	2004	4-6	Brad Johnson	Chris Simms	Brian Griese
TEN	2003	14-16	Billy Volek	Steve McNair	Neil O'Donnell
OAK	2003	7-9	Rich Gannon	Marques Tuiasosopo	Rick Mirer
CAR	2002	6-8	Rodney Peete	Chris Weinke	Randy Fasani
CAR	2002	7-9	Chris Weinke	Randy Fasani	Rodney Peete
CIN	2002	3-5	Gus Frerotte	Akili Smith	Jon Kitna
PHI	2002	10-12	Donovan McNabb	Koy Detmer	A.J. Feeley
STL	2002	4-6	Kurt Warner	Jamie Martin	Marc Bulger
STL	2002	12-14	Kurt Warner	Jamie Martin	Marc Bulger
TAM	2002	14-16	Brad Johnson	Shaun King	Rob Johnson
TAM	2002	15-17	Shaun King	Rob Johnson	Brad Johnson
WAS	2002	3-5	Shane Matthews	Danny Wuerffel	Patrick Ramsey
DAL	2001	4-6	Quincy Carter	Anthony Wright	Clint Stoerner
SDG	2000	3-5	Moses Moreno	Ryan Leaf	Jim Harbaugh
SDG	2000	9-11	Jim Harbaugh	Moses Moreno	Ryan Leaf

Excluding the 1987 season, the 1974 49ers were the only team since the merger to start four different quarterbacks in four weeks. As you can imagine, their story is interesting. Joe Reed entered the season as the starter, after splitting time with a 38-year-old John Brodie (who retired after the season) and Steve Spurrier (who suffered a severely dislocated shoulder in the final pre-season game in ’74) in 1973. He started the first three games of the year, and played miserably, so the team moved on to Dennis Morrison, who had been a 14th-round draft selection in 1973.

Morrison started the 4th and 5th games of the season for the 49ers, which is when the streak began. Morris started game five in Detroit, but threw three interceptions, so in week 6, the 49ers went back to Reed. Reed went 2/8 for 1 interception and was promptly traded later that week. So in week 7, 13th-round rookie Tom Owen started the game and performed reasonably well, but he was just the interim quarterback. That’s because in connection with the Reed trade, San Francisco acquired Norm Snead from the Giants, who sent Snead to San Francisco after acquiring Craig Morton from Dallas. Injuries and ineffectiveness limited Snead to just that one start for the 49ers in ’74, however, and Owen would go on to play (somewhat competently) for the remainder of the year.

Florida-Florida State.

Georgia-Georgia Tech.

South Carolina-Clemson.

And, as a technical matter, Vanderbilt-Wake Forest.

I’m not exactly breaking any news when I tell you this, but the ACC is not having a very good year. In the abstract, it might seem like any other elite conference. It has two 10-1 teams and each team has at least four wins other than Boston College. The problem is that the ACC, like all conferences not named the SEC, is measured by how it does in non-conference play. And it has had a miserable year in that regard.

Each team in the conference plays four non-conference games; with four games remaining, that means 44 have been played, although 13 of those games — including three by the two powerhouses of the conference, Florida State and Clemson — were against FCS schools. How has the ACC fared in its first 31 games against other FBS foes? The table below lists each non-conference game, sorted first by quality of the ACC team (that’s the SRS grade on the left) and second by the SRS grade of the opponent:

Date	SRS	Tm	PF	Opp	PA	H/R	W/L	Diff	MOV	Conf_Opp	SOS	SRS
09-29-2012	55.3	Florida St	30	South Florida	17	Road	Win	13	16	BgE	34.6	50.6
09-08-2012	53.4	Clemson	52	Ball St	27	Home	Win	25	22	MAC	38.8	60.8
09-01-2012	53.4	Clemson	26	Auburn	19	Neut	Win	7	7	SEC	35.2	42.2
09-15-2012	44.5	North Carolina	34	Louisville	39	Road	Loss	-5	-7	BgE	42.2	35.2
09-22-2012	44.5	North Carolina	27	East Carolina	6	Home	Win	21	18	CUS	32.9	50.9
09-29-2012	44.5	North Carolina	66	Idaho	0	Home	Win	66	43.5	WAC	15.9	59.4
09-08-2012	42.6	Miami FL	13	Kansas St	52	Road	Loss	-39	-30	B12	59.9	29.9
10-06-2012	42.6	Miami FL	3	Notre Dame	41	Neut	Loss	-38	-31	IND	57.9	26.9
11-17-2012	42.6	Miami FL	40	South Florida	9	Home	Win	31	26	BgE	34.6	60.6
10-27-2012	42	Georgia Tech	17	Brigham Young	41	Home	Loss	-24	-25.5	IND	48.8	23.3
09-29-2012	42	Georgia Tech	28	Middle Tennessee St	49	Home	Loss	-21	-24	Sun	36.2	12.2
09-29-2012	39.3	Virginia Tech	24	Cincinnati	27	Neut	Loss	-3	-7	BgE	44	37
09-15-2012	39.3	Virginia Tech	17	Pittsburgh	35	Road	Loss	-18	-15	BgE	37.7	22.7
09-22-2012	39.3	Virginia Tech	37	Bowling Green	0	Home	Win	37	29	MAC	33.8	62.8
08-31-2012	38.9	North Carolina St	21	Tennessee	35	Neut	Loss	-14	-14	SEC	40.3	26.3
09-08-2012	38.9	North Carolina St	10	Connecticut	7	Road	Win	3	7	BgE	30.8	37.8
09-15-2012	38.9	North Carolina St	31	South Alabama	7	Home	Win	24	21	Sun	21.9	42.9
09-08-2012	35.2	Duke	13	Stanford	50	Road	Loss	-37	-29	P12	55.5	26.5
09-01-2012	35.2	Duke	46	Florida Int'l	26	Home	Win	20	17	Sun	27.7	44.7
09-22-2012	35.2	Duke	38	Memphis	14	Home	Win	24	21	CUS	24.4	45.4
09-08-2012	32.1	Virginia	17	Penn State	16	Home	Win	1	0	B10	47.4	47.4
09-22-2012	32.1	Virginia	7	TCU	27	Road	Loss	-20	-17	B12	45.5	28.5
09-29-2012	32.1	Virginia	38	Louisiana Tech	44	Home	Loss	-6	-9	WAC	44.7	35.7
11-10-2012	31	Boston College	6	Notre Dame	21	Home	Loss	-15	-18	IND	57.9	39.9
09-15-2012	31	Boston College	13	Northwestern	22	Road	Loss	-9	-7	B10	45.7	38.7
10-06-2012	31	Boston College	31	Army	34	Road	Loss	-3	0	IND	22.7	22.7
09-22-2012	30.4	Maryland	21	West Virginia	31	Road	Loss	-10	-7	B12	43.7	36.7
09-08-2012	30.4	Maryland	36	Temple	27	Road	Win	9	12	BgE	31	43
09-15-2012	30.4	Maryland	21	Connecticut	24	Home	Loss	-3	-7	BgE	30.8	23.8
11-17-2012	28.1	Wake Forest	0	Notre Dame	38	Road	Loss	-38	-29.5	IND	57.9	28.4
09-22-2012	28.1	Wake Forest	49	Army	37	Home	Win	12	9	IND	22.7	31.7

Both FSU and Clemson at least gave it the old college try: the Seminoles scheduled West Virginia and one FCS opponent, but when the Mountaineers joined the Big 12 they backed out of the game, leaving FSU to place a second FCS school on its schedule. Clemson scheduled Auburn – two years removed from a national championship – in Atlanta on opening weekend. But at the end of the day, neither FSU nor Clemson played any team out of conference – or in conference, excluding each other – that remotely impressed anybody. Of course, these two teams face huge tests this weekend against their in-state, SEC rivals.

UNC scheduled Louisville, a terrible team just two years ago that now may win the Big East. But that game did not go according to ACC script.

Miami certainly couldn’t have expected that they’d face two teams who would be ranked 1st in the country at some point this year when they scheduled Kansas State and Notre Dame. The results were, in hindsight, predictably bloody, with Miami losing by the combined score of 93-16.

Georgia Tech saved its worst games of the year for nonconference play. While Georgia Tech embarrassed UNC (68 points scored), Virginia (36 point win) and Maryland (33-13 on the road), the Yellow Jackets’ worst two games of the season were inexplicable 21- and 24-point losses to BYU and Middle Tennessee State. BYU scored 6 points against Boise State, 6 points against Utah State, and 14 points against San Jose State, but exploded for 41 points in Atlanta. MTSU lost by 42 to Mississippi State and lost to McNeese State – an FCS school – but somehow won on the road against the Yellow Jackets 49-28. And Georgia Tech is going to be your Coastal Division champs.

The sixth and seventh best schools – Virginia Tech and NC State – didn’t fare any better. Virginia Tech shockingly lost to both Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, while North Carolina State lost by 14 points to a Tennessee team that may set a school record for losses.

This is why Florida State gets no love from the BCS computers. Out of conference this season, the ACC has been a joke. Consider:

• Overall, the ACC is currently 14-17 in non-conference games against other FBS schools. This is the most impressive stat you will read about the ACC today.
• Against Conference USA, the MAC, the Sun Belt, and the WAC, the ACC is 7-2. Against miserable Army — the 114th team in the SRS — the conference is 1-1. That means against the other BCS schools (the SEC, B10, B12, P12, Big East, Notre Dame, and BYU), the conference went a pitiful 6-14.
• This is not a joke: Ball State is the second best team an ACC school has beaten this year. Virginia’s upset over Penn State — a one-point home win when the Nittany Lions missed an extra point and four field goals — is the conference’s best win of the year. After PSU and Ball State, at least according to the SRS, the best teams defeated by ACC schools were Auburn, South Florida (twice), Bowling Green, East Carolina, Temple, and Connecticut.
• To put a bow on it, the ACC lost to the best six teams it faced out of conference, and according to the SRS, to 13 of the 14 schools they faced that have SRS ratings over 40.

I don’t know if much is going to change tomorrow, but for a conference that has zero signature wins this year, tomorrow is the only chance the conference gets. Clemson is a 4-point home favorite to a Marcus Lattimore-less South Carolina team; the SRS would make Clemson 2.2-point favorites, so that line seems appropriate. Florida State is a 6-point home favorite against Florida, while the SRS would make UF just a one-point dog. Florida State has beaten up on creampuffs while Florida struggles with everyone (but still defeated Texas A&M, LSU, and South Carolina). Because Florida State’s offense is very good and Florida’s offense is offensive, most expect the Seminoles to win. I think the safe bet is to expect a very ugly game.

Georgia is 15 points better in the SRS than Georgia Tech, and with the game in Athens, should be 18-point favorites. In fact, the Bulldogs are favored by only 13 points, perhaps a sign that Vegas doesn’t want to penalize the Yellow Jackets as harshly as the SRS for losing to MTSU. Vanderbilt is an 11.5-point favorite on the road against an awful Wake Forest team; the SRS would project the line to be 14.6 points.

The ACC is not in a particularly enviable situation. No one expects Wake Forest or Georgia Tech to win, because odds are they will get creamed. And while the Clemson and Florida State games favor the ACC squad, both should be very close. That’s a lot of downside for a conference that with a few bad bounces, could go 0-4 on the day. That would be a fitting finish to a dreadful season. For the conference to save any face, it will need victories by both of its heavy hitters and a respectable performance by Georgia Tech.

Stump your family with some Football Perspective trivia today. The tables below show the leaders in various categories in all games played on Thanksgiving since 1960.

Most passing yards

Rk	Year	Tm	Opp	PF	PA	QB	CMP	ATT	PYD	TD	INT
1	1998	dal	min	36	46	Troy Aikman	34	57	455	1	0
2	1995	det	min	44	38	Scott Mitchell	30	45	410	4	1
3	1995	min	det	38	44	Warren Moon	30	47	384	3	2
4	2007	gnb	det	37	26	Brett Favre	31	41	381	3	0
5	1998	min	dal	46	36	Randall Cunningham	17	35	359	4	1
6	1997	dal	oti	14	27	Troy Aikman	27	42	356	2	3
7	2010	nor	dal	30	27	Drew Brees	23	39	352	1	1
8	1994	det	buf	35	21	Dave Krieg	20	25	351	3	0
9	2009	gnb	det	34	12	Aaron Rodgers	28	39	348	3	0
10	2010	nwe	det	45	24	Tom Brady	21	27	341	4	0

Most passing touchdowns

Rk	Year	Tm	Opp	PF	PA	QB	CMP	ATT	PYD	TD	INT
1	2004	clt	det	41	9	Peyton Manning	23	28	236	6	0
1	1977	mia	crd	55	14	Bob Griese	15	23	207	6	1
3	2006	dal	tam	38	10	Tony Romo	22	29	306	5	0
3	1962	nyj	den	46	45	Johnny Green	22	46	292	5	3
5	1995	det	min	44	38	Scott Mitchell	30	45	410	4	1
5	1998	min	dal	46	36	Randall Cunningham	17	35	359	4	1
5	2010	nwe	det	45	24	Tom Brady	21	27	341	4	0
5	1987	dal	min	38	44	Danny White	25	41	341	4	3
5	1985	det	nyj	31	20	Eric Hipple	19	29	269	4	1
5	2008	phi	crd	48	20	Donovan McNabb	27	39	260	4	0
5	1994	gnb	dal	31	42	Brett Favre	27	40	257	4	0
5	1985	dal	crd	35	17	Danny White	14	26	235	4	1

[continue reading…]

The majority of power rankings out there have the Broncos, Texans, Patriots, Falcons, Packers, and 49ers in their top six. Each conference appears to have three elite teams, and one can justifiably rank them in just about any order.

Brian Burke has Denver first, San Francisco second, and Houston third (although his algorithm leaves the Patriots batting in the nine hole). Football Outsiders puts the 49ers first, followed by the Patriots and Broncos (and his algorithm has Atlanta down at #12). I don’t see much room separating any of those teams, although I’d probably rank them Houston, Denver, San Francisco, Green Bay, New England, Atlanta, if forced to choose. But power rankings at this stage of the game (like every other week!) are meaningless; all six teams will make the playoffs, where their true legacies will be formed.

[As always, the number of wins I’m projecting each team to finish the season with is in column 3. The fourth column – PWIN – shows how many wins I projected last week, and the difference column represents how many wins I added or subtracted this week. The “RSOS” column stands for the remaining SOS for the team, based on the number of projected wins I’m giving to each of their opponents. The “RHG” column stands for remaining home games.]

Happy Thanksgiving to all the readers out there. Check back at noon EST for some Turkey Day trivia.

Team	Rec	Wins	PrvWin	Diff	RemSOS	RemHG	Comment
Houston Texans	9-1	13	13	0	0.521	2	Sure, it was against Jacksonville, but still good to see Houston win when the game doesn't go according to script.
Atlanta Falcons	9-1	13	13	0	0.500	3	Well I'm certainly not going to bump Atlanta after that game.
Denver Broncos	7-3	13	13	0	0.354	3	I can't project more than 13 wins for Denver, right?
San Francisco 49ers	7-2-1	11.5	10.5	1	0.484	2	Considering the opponent, I'm not sure I've seen a better offensive performance all year. Alex Smith may have been Wally Pipped
New England Patriots	7-3	11	11	0	0.484	3	Patriots look fantastic, but a difficult remaining schedule makes it hard to project a 5-1 finish.
Green Bay Packers	7-3	11	11	0	0.500	3	I'm now projecting the Packers to win the NFC North without the need for a tiebreaker. Nate Silver, watch out.
Baltimore Ravens	8-2	11	11	0	0.542	3	According to Football Outsiders, Baltimore has the best special teams since 1991 through 10 weeks. Schatz tweeted that Baltimore's the 16th best team based on just offense and defense.
Chicago Bears	7-3	10	11	-1	0.500	3	In what has become a November ritual, Jay Cutler's agent is getting very excited, because we are seeing just how much the Bears need him. Although no quarterback could have succeeded against San Francisco.
Pittsburgh Steelers	6-4	9	10	-1	0.438	3	An easy schedule should be the saving grace, but hard to ignore that the glaring quarterback issues here.
New York Giants	6-4	9	9	0	0.583	3	The lead in the NFC East is getting smaller; the Giants' margin for error is razor thin right now.
Seattle Seahawks	6-4	9	9	0	0.479	3	If the passing game can click, Seahawks should cruise to a playoff berth.
Indianapolis Colts	6-4	9	9	0	0.500	3	Rude awakening, but the Colts don't need to be all that good to make the playoffs.
Dallas Cowboys	5-5	9	9	0	0.469	4	Survive and advance against Cleveland. Matchup against Robert Griffin III should be fantastic.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6-4	9	9	0	0.609	3	I really like the direction Tampa Bay is going. Unfortunately, they have a difficult schedule and will lose a tiebreaker to both the Giants and Cowboys.
New Orleans Saints	5-5	9	8	1	0.599	3	Saints fans may want to start calculating tiebreaker scenarios with the Giants, Cowboys and Seahawks.
Cincinnati Bengals	5-5	8	8	0	0.479	3	Everything about this team screams 8-8. Although with A.J. Green and Geno Atkins, they have a couple of potential All-Pros.
Minnesota Vikings	6-4	8	7	1	0.630	2	They had a very good bye week, which consisted of watching the Bears -- their opponent in two of the next three weeks -- look like the Chiefs.
Miami Dolphins	4-6	6	8	-2	0.547	4	A few weeks ago, this was the 4th best team in the conference. Now they're the 4th best team in a terrible division. What happened?
Tennessee Titans	4-6	7	7	0	0.479	3	On again, off again, Chris Johnson did zilch last week.
Washington Redskins	4-6	7	6	1	0.490	3	Robert Griffin III looked outstanding off of a bye week. Washington just needs to keep him healthy.
New York Jets	4-6	7	6	1	0.417	3	Jets looked good against the Rams; do they blow all that goodwill tonight?
Buffalo Bills	4-6	7	6	1	0.411	4	If Buffalo can upset Indianapolis, realistic to think the #6 seed is in play for them with three straight workable home games on deck.
San Diego Chargers	4-6	6	6	0	0.490	4	Norv Turner and Philip Rivers should thank the Jets and the Eagles for taking attention away from how far they've fallen.
Detroit Lions	4-6	6	6	0	0.646	4	Lions' season effectively over, as it is most years by Thanksgiving.
Carolina Panthers	2-8	6	6	0	0.427	2	As bad as they've looked, three games against the bottom of the AFC West and Philadelphia should help. Burke still says they're better than we think.
Arizona Cardinals	4-6	6	6	0	0.510	3	At this point, even I feel bad making fun of the Cardinals.
Oakland Raiders	3-7	6	6	0	0.406	3	Underachieving and injured, this Raiders team looks like just about every other Oakland team over the last decade. An easy schedule will help.
St. Louis Rams	3-6-1	5.5	6.5	-1	0.526	2	When you get blown out, at home, by a team that spent the whole week forgetting they have a game, you move down in the rankings.
Philadelphia Eagles	3-7	5	5	0	0.500	3	Eagles are reminding me of the 2011 Bucs -- they appear to be in full-fledged quit mode.
Cleveland Browns	2-8	4	4	0	0.479	3	Browns will play hard, but still lack the talent to do much. Interesting rivalry game this week against a banged up Steelers team.
Jacksonville Jaguars	1-9	3	3	0	0.469	3	I don't think Chad Henne is the answer, but his performance is a sign that Blaine Gabbert isn't, either.
Kansas City Chiefs	1-9	2	3	-1	0.531	3	Matt Barkley was hurt last weekend, but Chiefs fans weren't happy about that injury to a USC quarterback.

An interesting story today on Antonio Cromartie, courtesy of Bob Glauber of Newsday. Cromartie says that after Revis was injured, the All-Pro cornerback told Cromartie that he needed to start taking his job more seriously and that it was time for him to reach his potential. Cromartie stated: “Hearing it from your peers, you take more out of that than hearing it from your coach…. Your peers expect so much out of you and expect you to play at a higher level, especially when he’s one of the best corners in the league.”

I’ve been very impressed with Cromartie this season, and Pro Football Focus’ numbers back in up. PFF’s subscriber content ranks Cromartie fourth in pass coverage among cornerbacks this season, behind only Charles Tillman, Casey Hayward, and Richard Sherman. He’s playing as well as I’ve seen him since he’s been a Jet, and he’s changed his demeanor off the field, too.

Your reaction to Cromartie’s comments is essentially a Rorschach test of your views on life. Whether you find it disappointing that this is what it took for the light to go on (and who knows when the bulb will need to be replaced) or inspiring that he was able to elevate his play is left to the reader.

Cromartie realized he had to take on more of a leadership role, and admitted that his level of play leading up to this season wasn’t as proficient as it should have been. It was a startling admission from a player who rarely suffers from a lack of self assurance, yet it was a moment that signaled a major turnaround. Cromartie is indeed playing his best football, and now laments that he didn’t take his craft more seriously before.

“It shouldn’t have taken for Revis to go down for me to be playing at a very high level,” he said. “There’s something I think I took for granted having Revis on the other side and not being able to play at a high level when he was here.”
…
“I think the biggest thing that’s changed for me is the leadership role,” Cromartie said. “Just making sure everyone was on top of everything, helping guys study film and knowing how to study film. I think I just took on a role that once [Revis] left, and I wanted to make sure I played at a higher level every single week.”

This week at the Fifth Down, I look at the remarkable turnaround in Tampa Bay.  I argue that the success Tampa Bay is having this year dates back to the end of last year, when the organization decided to rebuild the offense with a clear image in mind.

Ten months ago, Tampa Bay Buccaneers General Manager Mark Dominik had a disaster on his hands.

The Bucs lost their final 10 games of the 2011 season and fired Coach Raheem Morris. The team ranked 27th in points scored, and quarterback Josh Freeman had regressed considerably in his third season.

In 2011, Freeman ranked 26th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt and led the N.F.C. in interceptions. Freeman had seemingly lost his way; he averaged a meek 10.4 yards per completion, placing him 33rd in the league and just barely ahead of weak-armed Colt McCoy (10.3).

If Freeman’s career had continued on this downward trajectory, Dominik would have become collateral damage. So in the off-season, Dominik rebuilt the team with a clear vision: he wanted an offense built around a strong running game complemented by a deep passing attack.

Dominik’s first move to was hire Greg Schiano, then the coach at Rutgers. The decision seemed odd at the time, especially in light of Tampa Bay’s flirtation with Oregon’s Chip Kelly. Kelly is considered an offensive mastermind, and Schiano is a defensive coach by trade. That meant the man Schiano would hire to coach his offense would be the most critical hire in Josh Freeman’s — and potentially Dominik’s — career.

Schiano didn’t have to venture far from Piscataway, N.J., to find his coordinator, Mike Sullivan, who was working as the Giants’ quarterbacks coach. The decision was considered risky because Sullivan had never called plays for the Giants, but he had a reputation for wanting to stretch the field with long passes in connection with a strong running game. In 2011, among the 25 quarterbacks that started at least 10 games and threw at least 300 passes, Eli Manning led the league in yards per completion.

In March, Tampa Bay signed wide receiver Vincent Jackson, who had starred for the Chargers. From 2008 to 2011, Jackson averaged 18.0 yards per catch, the highest average in the league over that span among players with at least 200 catches. During Jackson’s best season, in 2009, San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers led the league in yards per completion, signaling the effects an elite deep threat can have on a quarterback’s statistics.

Tampa Bay also signed the All-Pro guard Carl Nicks from division rival New Orleans, although he is now out for the year with a left foot injury. Finally, in the 2012 draft, the Buccaneers selected running back Doug Martin with the 31st pick in the first round. Martin has 1,000 rushing yards in 10 games and is leading the N.F.L. in yards from scrimmage.

By adding one of the game’s best deep threats, an excellent offensive lineman and a talented, all-purpose running back, along with finding the right offensive coordinator and  coach, Dominik put the pieces in place around his franchise quarterback. This year, Freeman is having a breakout season. Playing in Sullivan’s offense, alongside Jackson and Martin, has transformed Freeman into one of the game’s most valuable players. Consider that through 10 games in 2011, Manning’s Giants were 6-4 and he was averaging 8.2 Adjusted Yards per Attempt; through 10 games in 2012,  Freeman’steam is 6-4 and he is averaging 8.2 AY/A.
After ranking 26th in ANY/A last season, Freeman  ranks second in ANY/A and Net Yards per Attempt, my preferred predictive statistic of quarterback play, trailing only Peyton Manning in both categories. After ranking second to last in yards per completion last year, Freeman ranks second in that metric this season, just barely behind Cam Newton.

You can read the rest of the post here, which also includes a look at the crazy records set in the Houston-Jacksonville game and some other interesting week 11 stats.

You know the name Pete Gogolak, don’t you? The former Buffalo Bill placekicker is a famous figure in football history for two reasons. First, he played a key role in the merger between the AFL and NFL in the 1960s. ^[1]Gogolak was the first AFL player stolen by an NFL team. In 1965, Bob Timberlake succeeded on just one of his fifteen field goal attempts for the Giants. That prompted a desperate Wellington Mara to … Continue reading He’s also remembered for what he did on the field: Gogolak is widely credited with being the first soccer-style kicker in pro football history.

But Gogolak’s impact wasn’t limited to identifying the optimal technique for kicking a football: he also helped usher in an era of specialists. In the early days of the NFL, there was no room for a specialist as rosters were tiny and players played on offense, defense and special teams. Unlimited free substitution wasn’t permanently instituted until 1950, and as recently as 1963, teams were limited to just 37-man rosters.

Once teams were allowed to roster more players, and a certain unique brand of kicking was proven to be superior, a more specialized NFL emerged. In 1949, nobody would have signed a soccer-style kicker, or any person who could only kick a football. We joke now that kickers aren’t real football players, because back in 1949, a kicker would also need to play tight end or free safety. The idea that 5’11, 182-pound, 42-year-old Jason Hanson could be a contributing member of an NFL team is as noncontroversial in 2012 as it would have been laughable in 1952. It’s not going to take 60 years before an advanced statistical analyst — perhaps the front office version of a kicker — becomes a contributing member of an NFL organization.

This weekend, I sat down with Brian Burke, the founder of Advanced NFL Stats, a fantastic website on football, statistics and game theory. Burke’s win probability calculator has been one of the most exciting innovations in our industry. In Part II of this series, I’ll be interviewing Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz. Neither person is a threat to Ron Rivera’s job security anymore than Jason Hanson is a threat to steal Calvin Johnson’s job. Specialization is the way of the world, and hiring someone trained in the art of decision-making isn’t any different than choosing to hire a lawyer or doctor. We can’t expert anyone to be an expert in everything.
[continue reading…]

With 2:36 remaining in overtime, the Jacksonville Jaguars were at the Houston 47-yard line. It was 4th-and-10, following two short incomplete passes that were sandwiched around a run for no gain. Surprisingly, Mike Mularkey kept his offense on the field. The only similar example I can find of such an aggressive move in this situation came in 2009, when Carson Palmer and the Bengals convinced Marvin Lewis to go for it with 1:04 left in overtime, facing 4th and 11 at the Cleveland 41. Suffice it to say, this was something you don’t see everyday.

Despite being an unorthodox decision, most fans approved of the move. I do as well. Against arguably the best team in the league and your division rival, on the road, why not take the gamble? Is 1-8-1 that much better than 1-9, because punting in that situation is clearly playing for the tie. However, I think it’s important to make a clear distinction here, because stats guys are always recommending teams to go for it more frequently on fourth down.

This was *not* one of those cases. The numbers say this was a bad move. That’s exactly why this decision should be characterized as a a gamble. It’s okay to be risky for riskiness’ sake, but it’s important to recognize that that’s the reason. You’re playing for the variance here, not for the expected value. According to Brian Burke, Jacksonville would have needed a 55% chance of converting to make going for it the smart play. Over time, 4th and 10 plays are converted at roughly a 35% rate, and I don’t think that’s going to be higher when it’s Chad Henne against one of the best defenses in the league, regardless of how the rest of the game unfolded.

An incomplete pass, and your win probably decreases to 30% (never mind what happens on a sack or potential interception return). Give Houston the ball at say, their 14 following a punt, and you have a 60% chance of winning (this counts a tie as half a win). If you convert, you have a 76% chance of winning. Assuming a 35% rate, your win probably if you go for it is just 46% compared to 60% if you punt.

So the numbers don’t say going for it was the smart play. This was a gamble in every sense of the word. When statistical analysts argue that teams should go for it more often on 4th and 1, we’re not advocating risky moves; we’re advocating smart ones. This was risk for risk’s sake — which, given the situation, was probably appropriate.

On November 15, 2010, Michael Vick humiliated the Washington Redskins before a national television audience on Monday Night Football. The big news right before kickoff was that the ‘Skins had signed former Eagle QB Donovan McNabb to a five-year, $78 million contract extension, an ironic note that wouldn’t be lost on observers as McNabb’s replacement, Vick, put together one of the greatest all-around quarterbacking performances in NFL history:

Date	Tm		Opp	Result	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Rate	Sk	SkYd	ANYPA	Rush	R_Yds	R_TD
11/15/2010	PHI	@	WAS	W 59-28	20	28	71.4%	333	4	0	150.7	1	1	14.2	8	80	2

McNabb, on the other hand, was mediocre, going 17-31 with 295 yards and 2 TDs, but also 3 picks. More damning, Washington’s offense produced zero points until the Redskins were in a 35-0 hole and the game was essentially over.

Fast-forward 735 days, though, and the Redskins got their payback. An injured Vick was on the shelf, the Eagles entered the game on a 5-game losing streak, and electrifying rookie Robert Griffin III extended it to six with a brilliant performance of his own:

Date	Tm		Opp	Result	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Int	Rate	Sk	SkYd	ANYPA	Rush	R_Yds	R_TD
11/18/2012	WAS		PHI	W 31-6	14	15	93.3%	200	4	0	158.3	2	8	16.0	12	84	0

So, which performance was better, Vick’s original or RGIII’s remix? Vick threw for 133 more yards, rushed for practically the same amount as Griffin (on 4 fewer carries), and produced more total TDs. Then again, Griffin completed 93% of his passes and put together the vaunted 158.3 “perfect” QB rating. It’s a tough call.

Sound off with your opinion below!

Last week, I took another stab at creating a draft value chart. The biggest modification I made was looking at just the value provided by a player in his first five years to a team. As a result, the graph flattened, compressing the difference between the value provided by the top and bottom picks.

I’m not sure if there’s a right answer, or even what the “market” is. Almost no one thinks the high values assigned by the Jimmy Johnson draft chart are “correct.” Still, I think advanced analysts can sometimes get carried away with the idea of trading down. You may not need a dozen superstars to win, but you probably need a few, especially on offense.

Last time, I stated that we needed to take the marginal value of a player compared to that of an undrafted pick. That’s true, but after thinking it over some more, we need to do this on a yearly basis. A player providing 1 or 2 points of AV in a season obviously isn’t doing much. Therefore, I reconstructed the draft value chart by giving a player credit only for the AV he produced after 2 points of AV in each season. So if a player had an AV of 10 in each of his first 5 seasons, he gets credit for 40 points of value. Using these values produces the following chart, along with a logarithmic trendline:

After again removing the marginal value for the draft slots on the “career” level — even undrafted players, on average, will have some seasons with AV over two in their first five years — we can finalize this draft value chart. You can view all the values here. We can also compare this (in blue) to the Jimmy Johnson draft chart (in red):
[continue reading…]

Your assumptions are no longer valid.

Kansas State entered the weekend as the most balanced team in college football. Through 11 weeks, Baylor ranked 120th in yards allowed and 118th in points allowed. But last night in Waco, the Wildcats were unable to do much of anything on offense. Collin Klein had never thrown more than one interception in a game in his career; he threw 3 against the Bears. Kansas State was averaging 213 rushing yards per game, but Baylor limited them to just 76 rushing yards. The Wildcats hadn’t allowed more than 30 points in a game this year; Baylor scored 52 points in the first three quarters and ended the game with 580 yards of offense. The most balanced and consistent team in the country was demolished by one of the most one-dimensional teams in college football.

At the same time, another surprise was happening in Eugene. If there was one thing we knew in 2012, it was that the Oregon offense was unstoppable. This has been the case for years — since Chip Kelly arrived in 2007, the Ducks had scored at least 24 points in every home game. Against Stanford, the Ducks were held to just 14 points in an overtime loss.

In their first years in the post-Andrew Luck and post-Robert Griffin III, the Stanford and Baylor programs dominated the college football headlines on the most important weekend of the season. For the first time in five years, the #1 and #2 teams in the BCS fell on the same day, rendering all of our national championship game assumptions moot.

This much is clear: if Notre Dame defeats USC at the Coliseum on Saturday, the Fighting Irish are going to the BCS National Championship Game. The winner of the SEC Championship Game is going there as well, barring an upset by Georgia Tech in Athens this weekend. ^[1]No, we’re not getting into hypotheticals that involve Auburn beating Alabama. I maintain that Georgia is far less deserving of its spot in Atlanta than Florida, who has the most impressive trio of wins this year by defeating LSU, Texas A&M, and South Carolina. Georgia lost to South Carolina but beat Florida, which gave them the tiebreaker and the division crown. But the real key for Bulldogs was that they faced Mississippi and Auburn in the West, not LSU and A&M; as a result, they are the SEC East Champions.

But now is the time for more relevant debates. Assuming an upset — either by USC, or by Georgia Tech coupled with a Georgia upset against Alabama — who is next in line? At that point, four teams will have legitimate claims for the other golden ticket: Florida, Florida State, Oregon, and Kansas State. Fortunately, the Gators and Seminoles play each other on Saturday, which would leaves us with just three promising candidates.

If they defeat Florida State, Florida is the clear “next team up” following a slip-up by Notre Dame or in the event of a two-loss SEC Champ. The computers would love them due to their strength of schedule, and the voters should love them for the same reason and the bump they would get for defeating Florida State.

If FSU wins, their case is much weaker. The computers hate them, and for good reason: they haven’t beaten any good teams. Defeating the Gators would give them a big bump, and they’ll get a chance to beat mediocre team in the ACC Championship Game, but consider: Outside of 10-1 Clemson, each of FSU’s other 9 victories have come against ACC, Big East, or FCS schools that have at least 5 losses. And how good is Clemson? Yes, they have a nice record, but their 10 wins have come against Ball State (#64 in the SRS), and ACC, SEC, or FCS teams with at least five losses.

According to the SRS, North Carolina is the 3rd best team in the conference and they rank 45th. FSU lost to a bad N.C. State team, while while Oregon (in particular) and Kansas State have much more palatable losses. FSU’s argument would be two parts “we lost earliest” and one part “we beat Florida and Clemson, even if Clemson hasn’t beaten anybody.” Florida State’s overall strength of schedule is far inferior to that both Oregon’s and Kansas State’s. In my opinion, even with a win over Florida, the Seminoles likely do not jump both Oregon and Kansas State in the BCS, nor should they.

And consider: if Stanford defeats UCLA this weekend, the Cardinal — and not Oregon — would win the Pac-12 North, which would deal a significant blow to Nike University. Kansas State still needs to get by Texas, but tonight might not end up being a season killer. At this point, they need to root for USC and Florida State, which is historically not a bad position to be in. My guess is Kansas State is next in line after an undefeated Notre Dame, a one-loss SEC Champ, and a one-loss Florida team. It’s possible only one of those three exist by the end of the season.

Let’s take a look at the SRS ratings after 11 weeks. As always, thanks to Dr. Peter R. Wolfe. [continue reading…]

Watching Matt Barkley today against UCLA, I tweeted that Mark Sanchez is responsible for 4 of the 9 playoff wins by USC quarterbacks. Since twitter is not a very good medium for showing large datasets, here’s a quick look at which colleges have produced the quarterbacks with the most playoff victories.

Two pieces of fine print. One, I am using the player’s last college as his college, so Oklahoma does not get credit for Troy Aikman in this scenario. Second, I am giving only the quarterback who threw for the most passing yards for his team in that game as the “quarterback” to avoid giving credit to players who came in and took a couple of snaps at the end of blowouts (or who started games but were benched or injured early). So the number of playoff wins for each quarterback — listed in parentheses in the table below — could slightly differ from official figures.

Enjoy.
[continue reading…]

Note: There are many things theoretical issues with this post. That said, if I had to write down and explain all the drawbacks of the data I’m about to present, I wouldn’t have the time to make quick posts like this. So….

I thought it would be cool to take a slightly (emphasis on slightly) more nuanced look at team rushing and passing stats so far in 2012.

The first table shows how many “rushing yards over average” each team has this year. First, I calculated each team’s “Adjusted Yards per Carry” which is simply Yards per Carry with a 20-yard bonus for each touchdown. On average, teams are averaging 5.31 AYPC in 2012; to calculate rushing yards over average, I multiplied the number of carries for each team by the difference between their AYPC average and 5.31. As expected, Oregon ranks first.
[continue reading…]

Scott Kacsmar posted an interesting article yesterday, noting that teams are punting or kicking on 4th down in 2012 more frequently than at any other time in the last 20 years. So far in 2012, just 1.27% of all plays are 4th down attempts.

Scott also noted that teams have been less aggressive on 4th and 1. I wanted to tweak some of Scott’s cutoffs and see if the results changed. I look at all 4th-and-1s since 2000, but limited the data to just weeks 1-10 and the first three quarters of the game. This year, teams have gone for it 56 times in these situations, gaining a first down 75% of the time.

The table below shows how often teams punted, kicked a field goal, or went for it on 4th and 1. The fifth column shows the conversion rate when teams did choose to try to get the first down, and the next two columns display the run to pass ratio (scrambles are included as runs). The final two columns show the success rates by run and by pass.

Year	Punt	Field Goal	Go For It	Conv Rt	Run %	Pass %	Run ConRt	Pass ConRt
2012	54.3%	16%	29.8%	75%	76.8%	23.2%	76.7%	69.2%
2011	48.7%	23.3%	28%	61.9%	83.3%	16.7%	60%	71.4%
2010	50%	11.1%	38.9%	68.3%	76.2%	23.8%	72.9%	53.3%
2009	46.8%	10.5%	42.6%	61.7%	76.5%	23.5%	64.5%	52.6%
2008	47.3%	12.1%	40.6%	70.1%	80.6%	19.4%	74.1%	53.8%
2007	45.3%	14.1%	40.6%	69.6%	84.1%	15.9%	72.4%	54.5%
2006	47.2%	18.1%	34.7%	70.1%	74.6%	25.4%	76%	52.9%
2005	49.1%	10.9%	40%	66.7%	84.8%	15.2%	66.1%	70%
2004	52%	12.1%	35.8%	69.4%	83.9%	16.1%	69.2%	70%
2003	47.7%	15.5%	36.8%	73.7%	87.7%	12.3%	74%	71.4%
2002	48.5%	16.8%	34.7%	69%	82.8%	17.2%	75%	40%
2001	52.1%	14.1%	33.7%	69.1%	83.6%	16.4%	73.9%	44.4%
2000	45.5%	21.3%	33.1%	72.9%	81.4%	18.6%	75%	63.6%
Avg	48.8%	15.1%	36.1%	69%	81%	19%	71.5%	57.9%

It is a bit odd to see that teams seem less willing to try to convert on 4th-and-1 in 2012 than they were a decade ago. Why do you think that is?

Before I get to the question of the day, below is a quick roundup of some good college football articles I read this week:

• Bill Connelly, of Football Outsiders and SB Nation, argues that Texas A&M’s victory proves head coach Kevin Sumlin was the right man for the job and that the spread works — even in the SEC.
• You may recall that Alabama’s last chance to win the game was ruined when they fell for a hard count on a 4th down play with Texas A&M lined up to punt. Chris Brown highlighted how Sumlin has a history of success with the hard count — the day before the game.
• Dan Wetzel, writing for Yahoo!, argues that the BCS is screwing over Notre Dame because of the Irish’s preseason ranking.
• Stewart Mandel over at Sports Illustrated discusses the far-reaching impact of the Aggies’ upset victory
• Matt Hinton at SB Nation provides us with the latest and greatest on the BCS race, including a terrifying-but-not-unrealistic theory on how we might get another All-SEC BCS title game.

As we move towards the final few weeks of the regular season, the picture is almost in place. We know that Oregon and Kansas State are atop the BCS standings, and if both remain undefeated, will end up facing off in the BCS National Championship Game. That would leave Notre Dame, as a potential 12-0, left out in the cold. Is this fair?

Of course not. Any system that is designed around a two-team playoff format is not going to be equitable when you have three teams finish a season undefeated. That’s basic math. Unfortunately, we’re stuck with the BCS for another 14 months. So the real question isn’t whether an undefeated Notre Dame would be getting screwed — they would be, just like countless other teams before them. No, the more interesting question is, assuming we are absurdly limited to the ridiculousness of choosing two out of three undefeated teams, should Notre Dame be one of those two teams?

The cast of characters in this case can easily be plotted a continuum, with “margin of victory” champs on one side and “strength of schedule” warriors on the other. On the left, a dominant offense; on the right, a dominant defense. It’s a case of “beauty contest winners” vs. “resume champs.” Or, if you prefer, the best predictive teams vs. the best retrodictive teams. In any event, you’ve got Oregon on one side, Notre Dame on the other, and Kansas State square in the middle. We’re left trying to magnify miniscule differences to figure out which two teams belong.

The case for Oregon

The Ducks lead the country in points per game and rushing yards per carry, giving them the most explosive offensive attack in college football. The Ducks are so prolific that they’ve managed to achieve these milestones despite largely shutting things down for large stretches of the game nearly every week: Oregon has had a lead of at least 32 points in nine of ten games, and in 8 of those games, they scored at least 4 straight touchdowns at one point (of the exceptions, in one they had two runs of three straight touchdowns and in the other, they broke USC’s school records for yards and points allowed).
[continue reading…]