I don’t advocate betting on football games and neither does Football Perspective. However, as a person who spends lot of time trying to measure events that are difficult to measure, as an academic exercise, I find this list of Super Bowl Prop bets pretty interesting.

MVP and First to Score a Touchdown Odds

SUPER BOWL XLVII – Odds to Win MVP?

Colin Kaepernick (SF) QB 7/4
Joe Flacco (BAL) QB 11/4
Frank Gore (SF) RB 7/1
Ray Lewis (BAL) LB 7/1
Ray Rice (BAL) RB 10/1
Michael Crabtree (SF) WR 14/1
Anquan Boldin (BAL) WR 16/1
Vernon Davis (SF) TE 18/1
Torrey Smith (BAL) WR 20/1
Ed Reed (BAL) FS 33/1
Aldon Smith (SF) LB 40/1
Dennis Pitta (BAL) TE 40/1
Randy Moss (SF) WR 40/1
Patrick Willis (SF) LB 50/1
Terrell Suggs (BAL) LB 50/1
Dashon Goldson (SF) FS 66/1
David Akers (SF) K 66/1
LaMichael James (SF) RB 66/1
NaVorro Bowman (SF) LB 66/1
Bernard Pierce (BAL) RB 75/1
Justin Tucker (BAL) K 75/1
Ted Ginn Jr. (SF) WR 75/1
Alex Smith (SF) QB 100/1
Delanie Walker (SF) TE 100/1
Field 22/1

Player to score the first TD in the game?

Frank Gore (SF) RB 13/2
Ray Rice (BAL) RB 15/2
Michael Crabtree (SF) WR 15/2
Anquan Boldin (BAL) WR 8/1
Colin Kaepernick (SF) QB 8/1
Vernon Davis (SF) TE 9/1
Torrey Smith (BAL) WR 10/1
Dennis Pitta (BAL) TE 12/1
Randy Moss (SF) WR 12/1
Delanie Walker (SF) TE 18/1
Bernard Pierce (BAL) RB 20/1
Ed Dickson (BAL) TE 25/1
Jacoby Jones (BAL) WR 25/1
Joe Flacco (BAL) QB 30/1
Vonta Leach (BAL) FB 33/1
Ed Reed (BAL) FS 33/1
Anthony Dixon (SF) RB 33/1
Ted Ginn Jr. (SF) WR 33/1
Ray Lewis (BAL) LB 50/1
Field 17/2
No TD scored in the game 75/1
[continue reading…]

When you think about the Ravens under John Harbaugh — or just about any time in their existence — you think of a defensive team. Under Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, and Haloti Ngata, Baltimore has fielded dominant defenses for much of the last decade. Marvin Lewis, Baltimore’s defensive coordinator from 1996 to 2001, was rewarded with the head coaching job in Cincinnati after his years of excellent service. He was replaced by Mike Nolan, who after coordinating the defense for three years in Baltimore, was tapped to revive the 49ers. His replacement, Rex Ryan, excelled for four years in Baltimore, and was then chosen by the Jets to be their next head coach. The Ravens replaced Ryan with Greg Mattison, who was lured by his friend Brady Hoke to take the DC job at Michigan in 2011. He was replaced by Chuck Pagano, who coordinated the Baltimore defense for only a year (after spending three as the defensive backs coach) before the Colts selected him to be their next head coach. Dean Pees is the current DC in Baltimore.

Suffice it to say, with so many prominent names roaming the sidelines and coordinating the defenses in Baltimore, there are few fingerprints from either John Harbaugh or his predecessor Brian Billick on the great Ravens defenses. When you look at Baltimore’s offense under Harbaugh, you immediately think of Cam Cameron, who excelled so much in his role as OC in San Diego that he was hired by the Miami Dolphins in 2007. Cameron’s Dolphins went 1-15 and he was fired after only one year, but Harbaugh chose Cameron to be his first offensive coordinator. Then, with three weeks remaining in the regular season, Harbaugh fired Cameron and promoted Jim Caldwell to OC.

That’s a long bit of background to say this: John Harbaugh isn’t in charge of the Baltimore offense or the Baltimore defense. At least when Brian Billick was around, you knew the offense would be crafted in his image, even if it wasn’t successful. But there’s a reason you don’t think of Harbaugh when you think of the specific offensive/defensive units in Baltimore: that’s because he made his name as a Special Teams coach [continue reading…]

Eight years ago — almost to the day — our old PFR colleague Doug Drinen wrote a Sabernomics post about “The Manning Index”, a metric designed to roughly gauge the clutchness (or chokeitude) of a given quarterback by looking at how he did relative to expectations (he revived this concept in version two, six years ago). In a nutshell, Doug used the location of the game and the win differential of the two teams involved to establish an expected winning percentage for each quarterback in a given matchup. He then added those up across all of a quarterback’s playoff starts, and compared to the number of wins he actually had. Therefore, quarterbacks who frequently exceeded expectations in playoff games could be considered “clutch” while those who often fell short (like the Index’s namesake, Peyton Manning) might just be inveterate chokers.

Doug ran that study in the midst of the 2004-05 playoffs, so it shouldn’t be surprising that Tom Brady (who was at the time 8-0 as a playoff starter and would run it to 10-0 before ever suffering a loss) came out on top, winning 3.5 more games than you’d expect from the particulars of the games he started. Fast-forward eight years, though, and you get this list of quarterbacks who debuted after 1977:
[continue reading…]

Just a guess, but I think that question will be asked quite a few times over the next couple of weeks. While the inanity of the discussion that usually follows that question is not something I wish to emulate, there’s no particular reason not to take an in-depth look at Flacco’s career. The table below shows Flacco’s performance in six key metrics — all relative to league average (1.00) — for each season of his career:

As you can see, with the exception of his great interception rate — which justifies its own post during this pre-Super Bowl period — Flacco’s career performance has been rather average. His touchdown rate, like those of many quarterbacks, has bounced up and down throughout his career. His sack rate was below average during his first three years, improved significantly in 2011, and landed right at the league average in 2012.

In the three main statistics — Y/A, NY/A, and ANY/A — Flacco has consistently finished in a tight window around the league average. His ANY/A has been slightly better than his NY/A thanks to that lofty interception rate, but suffice it to say Joe Flacco is, and has been for years, a league average quarterback.

If we look at ESPN’s Total QBR, Flacco ranked 27th as a rookie in 2008, 15th in 2009, and 12th in 2010, signaling a young quarterback improving and on the rise. In 2011, he ranked 14th, perhaps signaling a leveling off, and then this past season, he finished 25th. The positive spin would be that he’s a league-average quarterback, and the negative one (at least prior to this post-season) would have been that he was regressing.

On the other hand, here is how Flacco has performed in the playoffs in each game, as measured by AY/A:

[continue reading…]

Now that the Super Bowl matchup is set, I thought I’d start the two-week period with some Super Bow history. The table below lists some information from each of the first 46 Super Bowls. With Joe Flacco and Colin Kaepernick facing off, that ends five-year streak where at least one of the two quarterbacks in the Super Bowl had previously won (or been in) a Super Bowl:

Year	SB	Winner	PF	Loser	PA	Location	ST	QB	Opp QB	MVP
2011	XLVI	New York Giants	21	New England Patriots	17	Indianapolis	IN	Eli Manning	Tom Brady	Eli Manning
2010	XLV	Green Bay Packers	31	Pittsburgh Steelers	25	Arlington	TX	Aaron Rodgers	Ben Roethlisberger	Aaron Rodgers
2009	XLIV	New Orleans Saints	31	Indianapolis Colts	17	Miami	FL	Drew Brees	Peyton Manning	Drew Brees
2008	XLIII	Pittsburgh Steelers	27	Arizona Cardinals	23	Tampa	FL	Ben Roethlisberger	Kurt Warner	Santonio Holmes
2007	XLII	New York Giants	17	New England Patriots	14	Glendale	AZ	Eli Manning	Tom Brady	Eli Manning
2006	XLI	Indianapolis Colts	29	Chicago Bears	17	Miami	FL	Peyton Manning	Rex Grossman	Peyton Manning
2005	XL	Pittsburgh Steelers	21	Seattle Seahawks	10	Detroit	MI	Ben Roethlisberger	Matt Hasselbeck	Hines Ward
2004	XXIX	New England Patriots	24	Philadelphia Eagles	21	Jacksonville	FL	Tom Brady	Donovan McNabb	Deion Branch
2003	XXXVIII	New England Patriots	32	Carolina Panthers	29	Houston	TX	Tom Brady	Jake Delhomme	Tom Brady
2002	XXXVII	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	48	Oakland Raiders	21	San Diego	CA	Brad Johnson	Rich Gannon	Dexter Jackson
2001	XXXVI	New England Patriots	20	St. Louis Rams	17	New Orleans	LA	Tom Brady	Kurt Warner	Tom Brady
2000	XXXV	Baltimore Ravens	34	New York Giants	7	Tampa	FL	Trent Dilfer	Kerry Collins	Ray Lewis
1999	XXXIV	St. Louis Rams	23	Tennessee Titans	16	Atlanta	GA	Kurt Warner	Steve McNair	Kurt Warner
1998	XXXIII	Denver Broncos	34	Atlanta Falcons	19	Miami	FL	John Elway	Chris Chandler	John Elway
1997	XXXII	Denver Broncos	31	Green Bay Packers	24	San Diego	CA	John Elway	Brett Favre	Terrell Davis
1996	XXXI	Green Bay Packers	35	New England Patriots	21	New Orleans	LA	Brett Favre	Drew Bledsoe	Desmond Howard
1995	XXX	Dallas Cowboys	27	Pittsburgh Steelers	17	Tempe	AZ	Troy Aikman	Neil O'Donnell	Larry Brown
1994	XXIX	San Francisco 49ers	49	San Diego Chargers	26	Miami	FL	Steve Young	Stan Humphries	Steve Young
1993	XXVIII	Dallas Cowboys	30	Buffalo Bills	13	Atlanta	GA	Troy Aikman	Jim Kelly	Emmitt Smith
1992	XXVII	Dallas Cowboys	52	Buffalo Bills	17	Pasadena	CA	Troy Aikman	Jim Kelly	Troy Aikman
1991	XXVI	Washington Redskins	37	Buffalo Bills	24	Minneapolis	MN	Mark Rypien	Jim Kelly	Mark Rypien
1990	XXV	New York Giants	20	Buffalo Bills	19	Tampa	FL	Jeff Hostetler	Jim Kelly	Ottis Anderson
1989	XXIV	San Francisco 49ers	55	Denver Broncos	10	New Orleans	LA	Joe Montana	John Elway	Joe Montana
1988	XXIII	San Francisco 49ers	20	Cincinnati Bengals	16	Miami	FL	Joe Montana	Boomer Esiason	Jerry Rice
1987	XXII	Washington Redskins	42	Denver Broncos	10	San Diego	CA	Doug Williams	John Elway	Doug Williams
1986	XXI	New York Giants	39	Denver Broncos	20	Pasadena	CA	Phil Simms	John Elway	Phil Simms
1985	XX	Chicago Bears	46	New England Patriots	10	New Orleans	LA	Jim McMahon	Tony Eason	Richard Dent
1984	XIX	San Francisco 49ers	38	Miami Dolphins	16	Stanford	CA	Joe Montana	Dan Marino	Joe Montana
1983	XVIII	Los Angeles Raiders	38	Washington Redskins	9	Tampa	FL	Jim Plunkett	Joe Theismann	Marcus Allen
1982	XVII	Washington Redskins	27	Miami Dolphins	17	Pasadena	CA	Joe Theismann	David Woodley	John Riggins
1981	XVI	San Francisco 49ers	26	Cincinnati Bengals	21	Pontiac	MI	Joe Montana	Ken Anderson	Joe Montana
1980	XV	Oakland Raiders	27	Philadelphia Eagles	10	New Orleans	LA	Jim Plunkett	Ron Jaworski	Jim Plunkett
1979	XIV	Pittsburgh Steelers	31	Los Angeles Rams	19	Pasadena	CA	Terry Bradshaw	Vince Ferragamo	Terry Bradshaw
1978	XIII	Pittsburgh Steelers	35	Dallas Cowboys	31	Miami	FL	Terry Bradshaw	Roger Staubach	Terry Bradshaw
1977	XII	Dallas Cowboys	27	Denver Broncos	10	New Orleans	LA	Roger Staubach	Craig Morton	Randy White [1]Co-MVP with Harvey Martin
1976	XI	Oakland Raiders	32	Minnesota Vikings	14	Pasadena	CA	Ken Stabler	Fran Tarkenton	Fred Biletnikoff
1975	X	Pittsburgh Steelers	21	Dallas Cowboys	17	Miami	FL	Terry Bradshaw	Roger Staubach	Lynn Swann
1974	IX	Pittsburgh Steelers	16	Minnesota Vikings	6	New Orleans	LA	Terry Bradshaw	Fran Tarkenton	Franco Harris
1973	VIII	Miami Dolphins	24	Minnesota Vikings	7	Houston	TX	Bob Griese	Fran Tarkenton	Larry Csonka
1972	VII	Miami Dolphins	14	Washington Redskins	7	Los Angeles	CA	Bob Griese	Billy Kilmer	Jake Scott
1971	VI	Dallas Cowboys	24	Miami Dolphins	3	New Orleans	LA	Roger Staubach	Bob Griese	Roger Staubach
1970	V	Baltimore Colts	16	Dallas Cowboys	13	Miami	FL	Johnny Unitas	Craig Morton	Chuck Howley
1969	IV	Kansas City Chiefs	23	Minnesota Vikings	7	New Orleans	LA	Len Dawson	Joe Kapp	Len Dawson
1968	III	New York Jets	16	Baltimore Colts	7	Miami	FL	Joe Namath	Earl Morrall	Joe Namath
1967	II	Green Bay Packers	33	Oakland Raiders	14	Miami	FL	Bart Starr	Daryle Lamonica	Bart Starr
1966	I	Green Bay Packers	35	Kansas City Chiefs	10	Los Angeles	CA	Bart Starr	Len Dawson	Bart Starr

[continue reading…]

In 2011, San Francisco made it to the NFC Championship Game with Alex Smith at quarterback; today, the 49ers will face the Falcons with Colin Kaepernick as their starter. This makes them the 9th team since 1970 to make the conference championship game in consecutive years but to start different quarterbacks in that game. Can you name the last team?

On Friday, the Jets finally concluded their search for a new offensive coordinator by hiring Marty Mornhinweg. The reaction was predictably mixed, but one of the facts trumpeted by the pro-Mornhinweg crowd was that he has been an offensive coordinator for 11 years and his teams never ranked lower than 15th on offense. Besides my initial reaction of “well, that’s about to change“, my next thought was: wait, the 2012 Eagles were a top-fifteen offense?!

Philadelphia turned the ball over 37 times last year, tied with the Jets and the Chiefs for most in the league. The Eagles ranked 29th in points scored. But when people speak of things like a top-fifteen offense, the convention is to refer to a team’s rank in yards gained, and Philadelphia did rank 15th in yards in 2012.
[continue reading…]

Presented without comment, the most current Simple Ratings, weighted for recency:

Rk	Team	pfr_id	Mean (SRS)	Std. Error	Upper	Lower
1	Seattle Seahawks	sea	13.57	3.22	19.92	7.23
2	New England Patriots	nwe	12.39	3.35	18.98	5.81
3	San Francisco 49ers	sfo	10.23	3.33	16.80	3.66
4	Denver Broncos	den	9.54	3.34	16.12	2.96
5	Green Bay Packers	gnb	7.08	3.28	13.54	0.62
6	Atlanta Falcons	atl	6.60	3.31	13.11	0.08
7	New York Giants	nyg	5.94	3.43	12.70	-0.82
8	Chicago Bears	chi	5.76	3.43	12.50	-0.99
9	Baltimore Ravens	rav	4.05	3.24	10.42	-2.33
10	Washington Redskins	was	3.52	3.33	10.08	-3.04
11	Minnesota Vikings	min	3.30	3.37	9.94	-3.34
12	Cincinnati Bengals	cin	2.83	3.31	9.36	-3.69
13	New Orleans Saints	nor	2.06	3.42	8.80	-4.68
14	Carolina Panthers	car	1.50	3.42	8.23	-5.23
15	Houston Texans	htx	1.48	3.24	7.85	-4.90
16	St Louis Rams	ram	0.75	3.43	7.50	-6.00
17	Dallas Cowboys	dal	-0.24	3.43	6.51	-6.99
18	Pittsburgh Steelers	pit	-0.78	3.43	5.98	-7.53
19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	tam	-1.05	3.41	5.67	-7.78
20	Miami Dolphins	mia	-2.84	3.44	3.93	-9.62
21	San Diego Chargers	sdg	-2.91	3.42	3.82	-9.64
22	Detroit Lions	det	-3.51	3.42	3.22	-10.24
23	Arizona Cardinals	crd	-4.47	3.44	2.30	-11.23
24	Indianapolis Colts	clt	-5.06	3.30	1.45	-11.56
25	Cleveland Browns	cle	-5.40	3.44	1.37	-12.17
26	Buffalo Bills	buf	-6.70	3.44	0.07	-13.46
27	New York Jets	nyj	-7.35	3.43	-0.60	-14.09
28	Philadelphia Eagles	phi	-9.88	3.43	-3.12	-16.65
29	Oakland Raiders	rai	-10.52	3.42	-3.78	-17.26
30	Tennessee Titans	oti	-10.60	3.45	-3.81	-17.38
31	Jacksonville Jaguars	jax	-13.94	3.43	-7.19	-20.69
32	Kansas City Chiefs	kan	-14.40	3.43	-7.65	-21.16

“Upper” and “Lower” are the 95% confidence intervals around each estimate. Roughly speaking, this means we can be 95% confident that, say, the 49ers’ “true” SRS rating is between 3.66 and 16.80.

According to the SRS, this is as lopsided as championship games get. The Patriots are 12.8 points better than average while the Ravens have an SRS of just +2.9; therefore, you’d put New England as 13-point favorites at home (in reality, they are 8-point favorites). I’ve been a Ravens skeptic for a couple of months now, and never thought they were one of the best teams in the league.

In my week 11 power rankings, when Baltimore was 8-2, I wrote: “According to Football Outsiders, Baltimore has the best special teams since 1991 through 10 weeks. Schatz tweeted that Baltimore’s the 16th best team based on just offense and defense.”

A few days later the Ravens defeated the Chargers in the famous 4th-and-29 game, which certainly didn’t change my outlook on Baltimore. Then the Ravens tanked down the stretch, seemingly fulfilling their reputation as an average team. And let’s not forget: had Ben Roethlisberger stayed healthy, it’s possible the Ravens don’t even make the playoffs. Without the 13-10 ugly win over Byron Leftwich and the Steelers, both Baltimore and Pittsburgh would have finished 9-7 with the Steelers holding the tiebreaker. To be fair, the Ravens did not compete in a meaningless week 17 game, but the point is that the Ravens were barely above-average team during the season that got a few breaks along the way.
[continue reading…]

Mike Silver’s latest article examines the lack of any minority hires among the fourteen NFL head coaches and general managers hired in January (leaving the Jets general manager position as the last remaining vacant job). At the coaching level, seven of the eight hires — Andy Reid (Chiefs), Doug Marrone (Bills), Rob Chudzinski (Browns), Mike McCoy (Chargers), Marc Trestman (Bears), Chip Kelly (Eagles), and Bruce Arians (Cardinals) — have been offensive coaches, with former Seattle defensive coordinator Gus Bradley (Jaguars) serving as the lone exception.

A few weeks ago, Silver hit on what I view as the bigger problem, the lack of minority coaches serving as quarterbacks coaches, offensive coordinators, and play callers on staffs, the natural candidates for future head coaching jobs. However, even Silver only suggests two potential coaches with offensive backgrounds for owners to consider:

[F]ormer Raiders coach Hue Jackson, has had zero head-coaching interviews (and only one interview for a vacant offensive-coordinator position, in Carolina) despite having presided over top-10 offenses in Oakland in 2010 and ’11, and having gone 8-8 in his lone year as the Raiders’ coach. Newly promoted Ravens offensive coordinator (and former Colts coach) Jim Caldwell, who like [Lovie] Smith has Super Bowl head coaching experience, hasn’t gotten any sniffs, either.

[continue reading…]

Yesterday, I provided my preview of the NFC Championship Game, and I’ll do the same for the AFC tomorrow. But today, here’s a listing of every conference championship game the since the NFL merger. The table below shows each game from the perspective of the winning team and includes a linkable boxscore for each game. The table also includes the Offensive SRS and Defensive SRS grades for each team and each opponent, along with the total SRS difference between the two teams. The final column shows the Vegas spread. You can search for all AFC or NFC games, or all games with BUF or DAL, for example. If you type in “NYG” you will see the five NFC Championship Games the Giants were in: not only was New York 5-0, but they were underdogs in four of those games. As always, the table is also fully sortable.
[continue reading…]

Yesterday, the Philadelphia Eagles announced that Oregon’s Chip Kelly would be their new head coach. In November, I provided my thoughts on Kelly and Chris Brown wrote his definitive piece on Kelly’s offensive system, a must read.

One of the biggest knocks on Kelly is that he has no prior NFL experience, as either a player or assistant coach. The goal of this post is to compile a list — this is where you come in, please chime in using the comments feature — of all first-time NFL head coaches with no prior NFL experience.

Note that Steve Spurrier (former player), Nick Saban (former Browns defensive coordinator) and Bobby Petrino (former Jaguars offensive coordinator) don’t count. So who does? So far, here is the running list, which will be updated once new names are established.

— Chip Kelly (Eagles 2013) – college player, assistant/HC for 23 years (last at Oregon)
— Mike Riley (Chargers 1999) – college player, assistant/HC for 24 years (last at Oregon State)
— Dennis Erickson (Seahawks 1995) – college player, college assistant/HC for 26 years (last at Miami)
— Barry Switzer (Cowboys 1994) – college player, college assistant/HC for 28 years (last with Oklahoma)
— Jimmy Johnson (Cowboys 1989) – college assistant/HC for 25 years (last at Miami)
— Darryl Rogers (Lions 1985) – college player, college assistant/HC for 24 years (last at Arizona State)
— Ron Meyer (Patriots 1982) — Dallas Cowboys scout (1971-2), college assistant/HC for 15 years (last at SMU)
— Frank Kush (Colts 1982) – college player, college assistant/HC for 25 years (Arizona State), CFL HC for one year
— Bud Wilkinson (Cardinals 1978) – college player, college assistant/HC for 26 years (last with Oklahoma but retired for 15 years)
— Lou Holtz (Jets 1976) – college player, college assistant/HC for 16 years (last at NC State)
— John McKay (Buccaneers 1976) – college player, college assistant/HC for 26 years (last with USC)
— Chuck Fairbanks (Patriots 1973) – college player, college assistant/HC for 18 years (last with Oklahoma)
— Bill Peterson (Oilers 1972) – high school coach, college HC for 12 years (last with Rice)
— Dan Devine (Packers 1971) – college player, college assistant/HC for 21 years (last with Missouri)
— Tommy Prothro (Rams 1971) – college QB, college assistant/HC for 29 years (last at UCLA)

I’ll also note that Lane Kiffin, John Robinson, Greg Schiano, Dick Vermeil, and Tom Coughlin did have some NFL coaching experience before becoming head coaches.

A couple of interesting notes, courtesy of Mike Sando on ESPN.com. The first is a good bit of trivia: Jim Harbaugh joins George Seifert, Barry Switzer and Rex Ryan as the only head coaches to reach the AFC or NFC Championship Game in each of their first two seasons as an NFL head coach. The second piece of information provides a possible clue as to how the game might unfold for Atlanta. Including the playoffs, the Falcons have allowed 8.9 yards per rush to quarterbacks this season, the worst rate in the NFL (excluding kneel downs).

To be fair, only three quarterbacks have done anything of note on the ground against the Falcons this year. Michael Vick rushed 7 times for 42 yards in a 30-17 loss. Vick had two first down carries that went for four yards, two third and long carries that went for 10 total yards but no first downs, and then three runs on 3rd and 3 or 4 where he picked up the first down. That’s not good, but not too alarming.
[continue reading…]

Yesterday, I reviewed how the Jets defense performed in 2012 and previewed the team’s outlook for 2013. Today, the heavy lifting begins, by looking at the offense. If you didn’t feel bad for Tony Sparano before this post, I can guarantee you will by the end of it.

Quarterback

There is no point in ignoring the elephant in the room, so let’s just get it out of the way: Mark Sanchez is a below-average starting quarterback and not the answer for the Jets. After committing 26 turnovers in 2011, Sanchez laughed in the face of regression to the mean and matched that number on fewer plays in 2012. Sanchez also turned the ball over 23 times in his rookie season, leaving 2010 (14 turnovers) as his only season with fewer than 20 turnovers. To be fair, every hand that touched the 2012 Jets passing game deserved criticism, as Sanchez received almost no support from his teammates or coaches.

Still, the quarterback gets the credit and the blame, and there’s no escaping the fact that Sanchez ranked 30th in Net Yards per Attempt over the last two seasons, a disproportionate performance compared to his bloated salary. ^[1]Among Jets fans, there is some argument that Sanchez used to be good but now is struggling; that’s not really the case. In 2010, the year the Jets went 11-5 and made it to the AFC Championship … Continue reading There are some creative things the Jets could do to lessen his salary cap hit in 2013, but that just delays the bill to 2014. Currently, Sanchez will count for $12.9M against the cap next season, and would count for $17.2M (yes, that means $4.3M of dead money) if released. While it’s not impossible that the Jets could trade him, I’m going to ignore that option for this post. The other problem? His cap hits are $13.1M and $15.6M in 2014 and 2015. You probably didn’t know that — heck you probably thought he was a free agent after 2013 — because it’s so far out of the realm of possibility that Sanchez would be on the team in 2014 that no one mentions it. But as a technical matter, Sanchez is signed through 2016 at superstar quarterback money, and the most likely scenario is the Jets cut him after 2014 (leaving $4.8M in dead money but still saving $8.3M on the cap).

The fact that his contract runs through 2016 is more important than you might think. Even under the best case possible, pigs flying 2013 scenarios, Sanchez still won’t be worth $29M in 2014 and 2015. Sanchez would have to turn in a season like Aaron Rodgers in 2013 to make the Jets want to keep him at his current contract (which, if he played at such a level, he’d have no incentive to restructure) after this season.
[continue reading…]

I have not done a good job fulfilling my pledge to point you in the direction of good football articles. But here’s a great interview by Jerry McDonald of the San Jose Mercury News with former Nevada head coach Chris Ault. Ault is the pioneer of the Pistol Offense, and his prized pupil was last seen rushing for 181 yards against the Packers on Saturday night. The whole article is worth a read, but here are some good excerpts:

Q: How similar was the stuff the 49ers were running to what you ran for Kaepernick at Nevada?

Ault: The read plays that they’re running, that’s what we ran. That’s what we did and what we still do. The play-action passes, which I was really excited to see out of the pistol, are things that we did here in Kaep’s senior year. The routes, I can’t tell you the routes are the same, but I thought that was the one thing I had not seen the Niners do, that I saw the Redskins do, was throw the ball with play-action out of the pistol. I thought the play-action passing really helped with the read itself out of the pistol.
… [continue reading…]

In the preseason, I provided an in-depth preview of the 2012 New York Jets. By mid-season, I questioned the track records of Mike Tannenbaum, Rex Ryan, and Mark Sanchez and wondered whether or not they should (and would) be back in 2013. As we now know, after the season Tannenbaum was fired, Ryan was retained, and Sanchez remains on the roster in a salary cap-induced purgatory.

In this post, I’m going to review the Jets defense, analyze how they performed in 2012, and examine the outlook for 2013. Let’s start with one of the strengths of the team:

Defensive Line

I thought the defensive line would be very good in 2013, and they largely met expectations. Muhammad Wilkerson was the best 3-4 defensive end in the league outside of J.J. Watt, and Wilkerson looks to be a perennial Pro Bowler. At the other end spot, the Jets rotated first round pick Quinton Coples with incumbent Mike DeVito. Coples delivered as a pass rusher while DeVito was stout as usual against the run. And while DeVito is an unrestricted free agent and could follow Mike Pettine to Buffalo (although rumor is he wants to stay), Coples has the ability to develop into an every-down player as early as next year. The Jets don’t have anything behind Wilkerson and Coples, but depth can be addressed.
[continue reading…]

It’s Christmas in January. Once the 2012 All-Pro teams were announced (my thoughts here), my buddies Mike Kania and Neil Paine worked through the weekend to provide us with Approximate Values for every player in the NFL this year. For the uninitiated, you can review how AV is calculated here. And if you’re so inclined, give a thanks to Neil or Mike or PFR on twitter.

Here’s a list of the top 100 players. AV is also listed for each player on each team’s roster page on PFR (for Dallas, it’s Tony Romo). You can use the PFR player finder for all sorts of AV-related fun, too. For example, you could see the player with the most AV on your favorite team (for the Jets, it’s Antonio Cromartie), or by position (among inside linebackers, it’s Patrick Willis), or by age (among those 35 or older, it’s Tom Brady, or Tony Gonzalez for non-quarterbacks), or by draft status (Wes Welker had the highest AV in 2012 among undrafted players).

Here’s a list of the top 20 players by AV.

The Best Weekend of the Year lived up to its reputation this weekend, as the divisional round of the playoffs gave us three outstanding games. Here is my reaction, with a disproportionate amount of time spent on the Denver-Baltimore game, because, well, if you saw it, you’d understand.

Baltimore 38, Denver 35

One of the best playoff games in NFL history, and an instant classic. This game could be analyzed for hours and there are countless talking points (Fox playing not to lose, Manning’s playoff failures, Ray Lewis’ retirement tour making at least one last stop, Tim Tebow anyone?) that will fill up the schedules of ESPN and talk radio for weeks. But let’s start with a big picture review of the game from the perspective of the team I expected to win the Super Bowl.

If you want to assign credit and blame to Denver, this is how I would rank the five Broncos units on Saturday, from best to worst.

1) Special teams. Sure, Matt Prater missed a long field goal, but Trindon Holliday’s two return touchdowns were a thing of beauty — especially for fans of excellent blocking. Holliday’s runs were more about textbook blocking by the return unit and poor coverage by the Ravens than Holliday himself, but in any event, the Broncos special teams had a great day. In fact, here is how Pro-Football-Reference broke down the game by unit in terms of Expected Points Added:
[continue reading…]

Yesterday, I previewed Saturday’s games with um, mixed results (skip the Denver-Baltimore preview and just read the San Francisco-Green Bay breakdown twice). Let’s take another crack at it by examining Sunday’s matchups.

Seattle Seahawks (11-5) (+1) at Atlanta Falcons (13-3), Sunday, 1:00PM ET

Once again, Atlanta is tasked with facing a dominant wildcard team. Is this the year Matt Ryan finally silences his critics?

Atlanta is only a one-point favorite, just the seventh time a home team has been given such little respect this late in the season since 2000. Home teams are 3-3 when underdogs or small favorites over that span in the divisional conference championship rounds, although one of those losses came by the Falcons in 2010 against the Packers when Atlanta was a 1.5-point favorite. But let’s focus on these two teams, because the stats might surprise you.

Russell Wilson edges Matt Ryan in Y/A (7.9 to 7.7), AY/A (8.1 to 7.7), and passer rating (100.0 to 99.1), despite having a significantly worse set of receivers. Ryan does have the edge in NY/A (7.0 to 6.8) but the two are deadlocked in ANY/A at 7.0. Both quarterbacks led four 4th quarter comebacks this year, and Wilson led 5 game-winning drives while Ryan led six. Considering one quarterback has Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez, and the other is a 5’10 rookie, I consider this pretty remarkable.
[continue reading…]

I was going to save this post for later today if the Broncos won, but seeing as how Trindon Holliday just set a playoff record with the longest punt return touchdown in post-season history, the timing feels more appropriate now. Holliday was a sixth round pick of the Houston Texans in 2010. At 5-5, many viewed him too short to be effective in the NFL, but the Texans saw potential in him as returner (he led the SEC in punt return average in 2009 at LSU). Holliday didn’t make an instant impact, but the shortest player in the NFL in 25 years is trying to vault one of the biggest hurdles in the game: a 19-0 season.

Holliday led the NFL in punt return yards this season and finished the year 16-0. Wearing #16, Holliday gained 341 all-purpose yards in five games with Houston before the Texans decided that he wasn’t providing a big enough spark in the return game. The Broncos quickly scooped him up, and the Broncos finished the year 11-0. That gave Holliday a perfect 16-0 season. According to my data, no player has ever gone 19-0 in a season. Can Holliday become the first?

Here are the selections:

First Team

QB: Peyton Manning, Broncos.
RB: Adrian Peterson, Vikings (unanimous), Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks.
FB: Vonta Leach, Ravens.
TE: Tony Gonzalez, Falcons.
WR: Calvin Johnson, Lions; Brandon Marshall, Bears.
OT: Duane Brown, Texans; Ryan Clady, Broncos.
OG: Jahri Evans, Saints; Mike Iupati, 49ers.
C: Max Unger, Seahawks.
DE: J.J. Watt, Texans (unanimous), Cameron Wake, Dolphins.
DT: Geno Atkins, Bengals; Vince Wilfork, Patriots.
OLB: Von Miller, Broncos; Aldon Smith, 49ers.
ILB: Patrick Willis, 49ers; Navorro Bowman, 49ers.
CB: Richard Sherman, Seahawks; Charles Tillman, Bears.
S: Earl Thomas, Seahawks; Dashon Goldson, 49ers.
P: Andy Lee, 49ers.
K: Blair Walsh, Vikings.
KR: Jacoby Jones, Ravens.

Some quick thoughts: [continue reading…]

I was on vacation last week, so I provided just a bare bones set of NFL playoff predictions. Technically, my picks went 4-0 on Wildcard Weekend, but that doesn’t count for much when you pick the favorite in every game. With a little more time on my hands, here’s an in-depth preview of Saturday’s games. Tomorrow I’ll be previewing Sunday’s action.

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) (+9.5) at Denver Broncos (13-3), Saturday 4:30PM ET

Most of the signs in this game point squarely in the favor of Peyton Manning and the Broncos. Baltimore has wildly underachieved on the road the last few seasons, and in Denver does not seem like the optimal place for that trend to reverse itself. From 2002 to 2010, Manning went 8-0 against the Ravens, including a 2-0 mark in playoff games. If you double his numbers in those games (to approximate a 16-game season), Manning would have thrown for 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns against just 12 interceptions, while averaging 7.8 Y/A and 7.9 AY/A to go with a 65.6% completion rate and a 97.7 passer rating. Manning was similarly lethal in Denver’s win over the Ravens in Baltimore earlier this year.
[continue reading…]

Regular readers surely recall my “What are the Odds of That” post from this summer. In that article, I referenced an obscured Jacoby Jones stat: in 2011, he gained three times as many receiving yards against teams at the back end of the alphabet as he did against the teams he faced in the front of the alphabet. Then I asked, “what are the odds of that?”

This is a very good reason why it’s often inappropriate to apply standard significance tests to football statistics. Surely Jones’ splits would pass any standard significance test, signaling that his wild split was in fact “real” even though we know it wasn’t. With a large enough sample, you would expect to have false positives, which isn’t a knock on standard significant testing. If something is statistically significant at the 1% level, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t expect to see a false positive if you have 100 different samples…
…
Some in the statistical community refer to this as the Wyatt Earp Effect. You’ve undoubtedly heard of Wyatt Earp, who is famous precisely because he survived a large number of duels. What are the odds of that? Well, it depends on your perspective. The odds that one person would survive a large number of duels? Given enough time, it becomes a statistical certainty that someone would do just that. Think back to the famous Warren Buffett debate on the efficient market hypothesis. Suppose that 225 million Americans partake in a single elimination national coin-flipping contest, with one coin flip per day. After 20 days, we would expect 215 people to successfully call their coin flips 20 times out of 20. But that doesn’t mean those 215 people are any better at calling coins than you or I am. The Wyatt Earp Effect, the National Coin Flipping Example, and my Splits Happen post all illustrate the same principle. Asking “what are the odds of that?” is often meaningless in retrospect. If you look at enough things, enough players’ splits, enough 4th quarter comeback opportunities, enough coin flips, or enough roulette wheel spins, you will see some things that seem absurdly unlikely.

In December, I highlighted Matt Schaub’s struggles in night games compared to day games as yet another example. Well now, Ray Rice is the latest protagonist in What are the Odds of That? In case you missed it, Rice fumbled twice in Baltimore’s playoff win over Indianapolis, with the Colts recovering both times. Rice has struggled with fumbles in the playoffs in the past, but he’s always been outstanding during the regular season at holding on to the ball. In 2012, he lost just one fumble — which went harmlessly out of bounds — giving him a clean record for the season. So what’s going on? Here’s what Bill Barnwell wrote earlier this week:
[continue reading…]

For the second time in three years, the Atlanta Falcons are the NFC’s number one seed. Just like in 2010, the Falcons started this season 13-2 but ended the year with only 11 Pythagorean wins. In 2010, Atlanta lost its first game to the #6 seed Packers, who sported the highest SRS of any NFC team in 2010. This year, Atlanta hosts the #6 seed Seahawks, who finished 2012 with highest SRS of any NFC team. History suggests that this is a difficult challenge for Atlanta, regardless of the Falcons’ lofty record.

One of the obvious topics the mainstream media has hit on this week has been Matt Ryan’s inability to win in the playoffs. As everyone knows, Atlanta is 0-3 in the playoffs in the Mike Smith/Matt Ryan era. As Ryan prepares for his fourth playoff start on Sunday, history offers some comfort: four other quarterbacks (since 1950) have been in exactly the same situation, entering their fourth playoff start with an 0-3 record. Those quarterbacks went 3-1 in their fourth game. Let’s stroll down memory lane.

• At age 37, Y.A. Tittle and the New York Giants went to Soldier Field to battle the famed 1963 Bears. Tittle had gone 0-3 in his previous three NFL playoff games, and had lost his lone playoff game in the AAFC, too. In 1957, Tittle was on the wrong side of the most famous comeback in playoff history prior to Bills/Oilers. In that game, Tittle threw three touchdowns against the Lions as San Francisco opened up what looked to be an insurmountable 27-7 lead. But Tittle finished the day with three interceptions, and the Lions came back and won, 31-27. In 1961, Tittle was with the Giants, and was part of an embarassing 37-0 shutout on the quite literal frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. Tittle was a miserable 6/20 for 65 yards with 4 interceptions. The next year, the Giants and Packers met again, this time at a frozen and windy Yankee Stadium, with the Packers again topping the Giants. ^[1]This was the first game Ed Sabol filmed for the NFL, under the label Blair Motion Pictures. So you can imagine that when Tittle and the Giants had to travel to Soldier Field in 1963 — the Giants third straight year in the title game — Tittle probably carried the choker label. With a wind chill of -11 degrees, the weather was again miserable, and the result was more of the same for Tittle and New York. The Giants lost 14-10, and Tittle threw 1 touchdown against 5 interceptions.
• Jack Kemp took the Chargers to the AFL title game in the league’s first two seasons. On New Year’s Day 1961, Kemp was outplayed by Houston’s George Blanda, and Billy Cannon put the final nail in the coffin as the Oilers won, 24-16. The Oilers and Chargers met again in the title game the following year — this time in San Diego — but Kemp had a miserable game, throwing 4 interceptions as the Chargers lost, 10-3. By 1963, Kemp was with the Bills, and Buffalo had finished the year tied with the Patriots, setting up a one-game playoff for the division title at War Memorial Stadium. But Kemp struggled and was benched for Daryle Lamonica at halftime, as the Bills lost 26-8. In 1964, the Bills went 12-2, and entered the AFL title game against Kemp’s old team, San Diego. At this time, Kemp had an 0-3 post-season record, and surely Chargers fans taunted the citizens of Buffalo by calling Kemp the Mayor of Chokesville. While Kemp did not produce stellar numbers, the Bills managed to defeat the Chargers and capture their first AFL championship. The hero of the game may have been Mike Stratton, who produced the “hit heard round the world” early in the game, knocking out San Diego’s Keith Lincoln. In any event, the Mayor of Chokesville was able to abdicate his throne.

[continue reading…]

Much has been written this season arguing that the Falcons are not as good as their 13-3 record. Conversely, the Seahawks have emerged as a favorite among some in our advanced statistical community: Brian Burke ranks Seattle as the third most efficient team, Aaron Schatz ranks them number one, and Pro-Football-Reference ranks Seattle second in the SRS behind only the Patriots.

Here’s a quick way to summarize the Falcons-Seahawks game on Sunday: Atlanta won two more games than Seattle this season but the SRS says that the Falcons are 5.7 points worse than the Seahawks. That’s based on the fact that (1) Seattle has outscored opponents its by 2.9 more points per game than Atlanta outscored its opponents this year, and (2) Seattle faced a schedule that was 2.8 points per game harder than Atlanta’s schedule.

How often does it happen that a home team in the playoffs won 2+ more games than its opponent but was at least 5 points worse than that opponent in the SRS? This is just the second time such a matchup has occurred in the last 10 years… and the first involved the 2010 Falcons. In fact, this scenario has only unfolded five times since 1970:

Year	Boxscore	Tm	Opp	Rd	SRS TM	SRS OPP	SRS DIFF	WIN TM	WIN OPP	WIN DIFF	PF	PA	W/L
2012	Boxscore	ATL	SEA	D	6.5	12.2	-5.7	13	11	2
2010	Boxscore	ATL	GB	D	6	11	-5	13	10	3	21	48	L
1999	Boxscore	TEN	BUF	W	1	7.2	-6.2	13	11	2	22	16	W
1982	Boxscore	RAI	NYJ	D	5.3	10.7	-5.4	8	6	2	14	17	L
1976	Boxscore	RAI	PIT	C	8.5	15.3	-6.8	13	10	3	24	7	W

[continue reading…]

AFC East and NFC East Season in review
AFC North and NFC North Season in review
AFC North and NFC South Season in review

In the case of the AFC West, a picture can say a thousand words.

Denver Broncos

Pre-season Projection: 8.5 wins
Maximum wins: 13 (after weeks 10 through 16)
Minimum wins: 9 (after weeks 3, 5 )
Week 1 comment: Watching Peyton Manning work his magic was a thing of beauty on Sunday night. The less John Fox touches this offense, the better, but I think everyone in Denver already knows that.

Once Peyton Manning proved that he was healthy and back, the AFC West race was effectively over. Officially, that happened in the week 6 comeback over the Chargers. That win only made them 3-3, but here is what I wrote then: According to Advanced NFL Stats, Denver is the best team in the league. Their remaining schedule is absurdly easy, so I’m going to perhaps prematurely give them a two-win bump. Their week 15 game in Baltimore may be for a bye, and I now think Denver is the favorite.

Kudos to Brian Burke’s model for correctly identifying how good the Broncos were early in the year. After week 9, I pegged Denver at 12 wins, and wrote: As a matter of principle, projecting a team to finish 7-1 is never advised. But this seems to be a good place to make an exception.

The next week, I bumped them to 13 wins, and never moved off that number. They got a late Christmas present from Manning’s old team, and now the AFC playoffs will have to go through Denver.

San Diego Chargers

Pre-season Projection: 9 wins
Maximum wins: 9 (after weeks 1, 2, and 4)
Minimum wins: 6 (after weeks 10 through 13, 16)
Week 1 comment: Unimpressive on Monday Night Football, but the schedule lines up for them to succeed. Philip Rivers is still elite, so expecting them to only go 8-7 the rest of the way is probably more of a knock on them than anything else. A healthy Ryan Mathews back will help.

The Chargers schedule was ridiculously easy, but they lost to the Browns, Saints, and Panthers, and couldn’t beat the Ravens, Bengals, or Bucs. The decline of Philip Rivers from elite quarterback to throw-it-out-of-bounds master is depressing, and it’s easy and probably appropriate to point the blame at the general manager. Going into 2013, San Diego will have a new head coach and GM, and we’ll see if that is what was needed to resurrect Rivers’ career.

It’s not easy to remember, but the Chargers were actually 3-1. At that point, I wrote: An unimpressive 3-1 team with a struggling offensive line. I really wanted to keep them at 8 wins, but their schedule is too easy and Philip Rivers — even in a down year — is good enough to lead them to a .500 record the rest of the way.

But by the time they were 3-4, I had already started with the “I can’t think of anything positive to say about the Chargers right now” comments. I summed up the Chargers season after week 13, when I wrote: This team started 2-0 but hasn’t beaten anyone but the Chiefs since then.

Of course, San Diego being San Diego, the Chargers did finish with 7 wins, but it was another disappointing season for the franchise. It’s hard to think back to September, but Vegas really did project the Chargers to win this division.
[continue reading…]

A couple of weeks ago, I heard my buddy and co-worker Sigmund Bloom say on the Footballguys Podcast that Jamaal Charles was having one of the craziest seasons ever. As Sigmund noted, Charles has been an incredibly frustrating fantasy player. This year, he had three games with 10 or fewer rushing yards… and he also became the first player in NFL history with two games with over 225 rushing yards in the same season.

Did you know that Kansas City finished 2012 fifth in carries? Under Todd Haley, Chiefs fans and fantasy football players were constantly frustrated by Thomas Jones, who Haley seemed to always find a way to give an extra ten carries to. This year, under Romeo Crennel, Peyton Hillis was the complementary back, but he was not nearly as predatory. Still, while Charles finally received the lion’s share of the carries, he was once again an inconsistent fantasy player.

Take a look at Charles’ weekly game logs:

That’s a pretty incredible distribution, but how crazy is it?

I looked at the standard deviation of every game by every player in a season with at least 1,000 rushing yards from 1960 to 2011. As it turns out, Charles has had one of the most inconsistent seasons ever. While he gained 1,509 rushing yards, he had a standard deviation of 71.4 yards. That may not mean anything to you in the abstract, but it would place him as the 4th most inconsistent back since 1960.
[continue reading…]

Last week I reviewed the seasons of the teams in the AFC East and NFC East and in the AFC North and NFC North. Today we’ll review the interesting seasons from the AFC and NFC South divisions.

In the AFC South, I had the bottom three teams projected for between 5 and 6 wins for a five week stretch starting after week two. As we now know, that was resolved quite definitively by the end of the year:

Houston Texans

Pre-season Projection: 10 wins
Maximum wins: 14 (after week 15)
Minimum wins: 10 (after week 1)
Week 1 comment: Going to win the AFC South going away; this team could win 12 games, but concerns about injuries and the potential to rest starters late keep them at 10 wins for now.

A miserable December ruined what should have been a marvelous season in Houston. At no point did I project any of the other AFC South teams to finish within even three games of the Texans. When they were 5-0, I wrote: Not only do the Texans still have 6 home games remaining, but they have 4 more games against the AFC South and get the Bills and Lions. Even without Brian Cushing, I don’t see why they don’t win 8 more games.

The Texans schedule was easy, but they also had dominant seasons out of J.J. Watt and Andre Johnson. Left Tackle Duane Brown was outstanding, and Houston is as good as any other team in the league when they’re at their their best. Unfortunately, they might be undermanned in a gunfight with the Broncos or Patriots, and it looks like now they’ll have to beat both of those teams to get to New Orleans. Still, I give the Texans a fighting chance; Matt Schaub has struggled in primetime games, but that doesn’t really mean anything. In the end I think the week 17 loss submarined their playoff hopes, and the team will be left wondering how good they could have been if Cushing stayed healthy.

Indianapolis Colts

Pre-season Projection: 5.5 wins
Maximum wins: 10 (after week 12 through the end of the year)
Minimum wins: 4 (after week 1)
Week 1 comment: There will be growing pains in Indianapolis. But nobody feels bad for their fans, nor should they; the Colts will be contenders each year for a decade, starting next season.

I never got on board with the Colts this year and it only looks worse in retrospect. On the other hand, even though Indianapolis finished 11-5, they were still outscored by 30 points in 2012. They struggled to beat Brady Quinn and the Chiefs and split with the Jaguars. The Colts won just two game by more than a touchdown.

While I missed on the Colts overall, I was on board the Andrew Luck bandwagon early on even when his numbers were terrible. I wrote this before the Colts-Packers game: Andrew Luck–Aaron Rodgers I won’t steal the spotlight from Tom Brady–Peyton Manning XIII; by the time these two teams play again in four years, we may be looking at the best two quarterbacks in the league. I highlighted how Luck was being undervalued by conventional statistics after week 7, and wrote this after week 8: A wildcard darkhorse? I don’t think the Colts are very good — they’re just 29th according to Football Outsiders — but a win over Miami this weekend puts them in the driver’s seat. I finally projected them at 10 wins after week 12, and noted: Basically clinched a playoff berth with win over Buffalo and Steelers loss. Hard not to like this team.

They may not be very good, but they certainly are likeable. Even after the upset win over the Texans, Houston is just the 10th team to make the playoffs after being outscored by at least 30 points.
[continue reading…]

Last weekend, I looked at career rushing stats in wins and losses, and yesterday, I did the same for quarterbacks. Today we will check out the splits for receivers.

I looked at all games, including playoffs, from 1960 to 2011, for all players with at least 4,000 receiving yards over that time period. The table below lists the following information for each player:

– His first year (or 1960, if he played before 1960) and his last year (or 2011, if still active)
– All the franchises he played for (which you can search for in the search box)
– His number of career wins, and his career receptions, receiving yards, yards per reception, and receiving yards per game in wins
– His number of career losses, and his career receptions, receiving yards, yards per reception, and receiving yards per game in losses

You might be surprised to see Andre Johnson at the top of the list, but his career average should decline the longer he plays; that said, 2012 didn’t drop his numbers. On the flip side, Calvin Johnson moves up into the #2 slot; part of that was due to a great season (although Detroit didn’t get many wins) and part of that was due to Randy Moss slipping. Larry Fitzgerald comes up high on the list for the same reason as both Johnsons, although it’s often easy to forget how great Fitzgerald can be thanks to his current situation.

The table is sorted by receiving yards per game in wins:

Rk	Player	Years	Teams	Pos	Win	Rec_W	Yd_W	YPR_W	Y/G_W	Loss	Rec_L	Yd_L	YPR_L	Y/G_L
1	Andre Johnson	2003--2011	htx	WR	52	325	4739	14.58	91.1	72	394	5118	12.99	71.1
2	Randy Moss	1998--2010	min-rai-nwe-oti	WR	114	597	9960	16.68	87.4	93	404	5763	14.26	62
3	Michael Irvin	1988--1999	dal	WR	106	560	9133	16.31	86.2	62	277	4086	14.75	65.9
4	Larry Fitzgerald	2004--2011	crd	WR	59	352	5021	14.26	85.1	71	383	5299	13.84	74.6
5	Calvin Johnson	2007--2011	det	WR	23	113	1929	17.07	83.9	54	265	4154	15.68	76.9
6	Lance Alworth	1962--1972	sdg-dal	FL-WR	83	360	6872	19.09	82.8	42	172	3094	17.99	73.7
7	Jerry Rice	1985--2004	sfo-rai-sea	WR	207	1099	16909	15.39	81.7	118	598	8173	13.67	69.3
8	Art Powell	1960--1968	nyj-rai-buf-min	SE-WR	51	244	4160	17.05	81.6	45	215	3477	16.17	77.3
9	Jimmy Smith	1995--2005	jax	WR	96	512	7829	15.29	81.6	80	390	5105	13.09	63.8
10	Torry Holt	1999--2009	ram-jax	WR	93	486	7416	15.26	79.7	89	481	6596	13.71	74.1
11	Charley Hennigan	1960--1966	oti	WR	44	209	3501	16.75	79.6	40	201	3213	15.99	80.3
12	Steve Smith	2001--2011	car	WR	75	390	5898	15.12	78.6	84	356	5162	14.5	61.5
13	Del Shofner	1960--1967	ram-nyg	E	41	165	3213	19.47	78.4	31	86	1224	14.23	39.5
14	Dwayne Bowe	2007--2011	kan	WR	25	118	1948	16.51	77.9	49	238	2979	12.52	60.8
15	Don Maynard	1960--1973	nyj-crd	WR-HB	79	298	6150	20.64	77.8	76	305	5091	16.69	67
16	Terrell Owens	1996--2010	sfo-phi-dal-buf-cin	WR	131	655	10127	15.46	77.3	95	477	6558	13.75	69
17	Marvin Harrison	1996--2008	clt	WR	125	723	9649	13.35	77.2	81	444	5814	13.09	71.8
18	Sterling Sharpe	1988--1994	gnb	WR	52	292	3937	13.48	75.7	62	314	4426	14.1	71.4
19	DeSean Jackson	2008--2011	phi	WR	39	149	2934	19.69	75.2	25	93	1364	14.67	54.6
20	Wesley Walker	1977--1989	nyj	WR	73	272	5485	20.17	75.1	71	185	3195	17.27	45
21	Herman Moore	1991--2001	det	WR	63	314	4712	15.01	74.8	77	383	4936	12.89	64.1
22	Charlie Brown	1982--1987	was-atl	WR	42	177	3134	17.71	74.6	21	71	1014	14.28	48.3
23	Sonny Randle	1960--1968	crd-sfo-dal	E-WR	45	178	3330	18.71	74	45	155	2187	14.11	48.6
24	Greg Jennings	2006--2011	gnb	WR	61	279	4493	16.1	73.7	34	151	2243	14.85	66
25	Reggie Wayne	2001--2011	clt	WR	122	639	8938	13.99	73.3	63	306	3898	12.74	61.9
26	John Jefferson	1978--1985	sdg-gnb-cle	WR	54	238	3953	16.61	73.2	44	131	2091	15.96	47.5
27	Terry Glenn	1996--2007	nwe-gnb-dal	WR	79	379	5686	15	72	61	246	3574	14.53	58.6
28	Darnay Scott	1994--2002	cin-dal	WR	40	171	2852	16.68	71.3	77	237	3341	14.1	43.4
29	Buddy Dial	1960--1966	pit-dal	SE-FL	35	112	2494	22.27	71.3	31	110	2050	18.64	66.1
30	Isaac Bruce	1994--2009	ram-sfo	WR	114	529	8119	15.35	71.2	110	539	7848	14.56	71.3
31	Gary Clark	1985--1995	was-crd-mia	WR	107	484	7609	15.72	71.1	66	273	4073	14.92	61.7
32	Carl Pickens	1992--2000	cin-oti	WR	39	212	2746	12.95	70.4	84	328	4383	13.36	52.2
33	Homer Jones	1964--1970	nyg-cle	SE-WR	32	91	2240	24.62	70	47	131	2573	19.64	54.7
34	Marques Colston	2006--2011	nor	WR	61	313	4260	13.61	69.8	32	181	2608	14.41	81.5
35	Cris Carter	1987--2002	phi-min-mia	WR	132	701	9185	13.1	69.6	101	463	5584	12.06	55.3
36	Al Toon	1985--1992	nyj	WR	48	251	3336	13.29	69.5	58	287	3551	12.37	61.2
37	Anquan Boldin	2003--2011	crd-rav	WR	65	332	4482	13.5	69	67	405	5188	12.81	77.4
38	Pete Retzlaff	1960--1966	phi	WR-TE	42	155	2889	18.64	68.8	42	181	2807	15.51	66.8
39	Chad Ochocinco	2001--2011	cin-nwe	WR	74	350	5084	14.53	68.7	89	419	6049	14.44	68
40	Steve Largent	1976--1989	sea	WR	99	419	6797	16.22	68.7	106	423	6726	15.9	63.5
41	Raymond Berry	1960--1967	clt	E	57	263	3911	14.87	68.6	32	149	1978	13.28	61.8
42	Gary Garrison	1966--1977	sdg-oti	WR-SE	55	192	3764	19.6	68.4	63	201	3557	17.7	56.5
43	Darrell Jackson	2000--2008	sea-sfo-den	WR	61	282	4147	14.71	68	63	258	3488	13.52	55.4
44	Mike Quick	1982--1990	phi	WR	39	142	2645	18.63	67.8	57	216	3664	16.96	64.3
45	James Lofton	1978--1993	gnb-rai-buf-ram-phi	WR	109	395	7387	18.7	67.8	115	402	7254	18.04	63.1
46	Rob Moore	1990--1999	nyj-crd	WR	59	269	3998	14.86	67.8	94	374	5572	14.9	59.3
47	Fred Barnett	1990--1997	phi-mia	WR	59	243	3977	16.37	67.4	38	136	1668	12.26	43.9
48	Kellen Winslow	1979--1987	sdg	TE	58	320	3908	12.21	67.4	55	249	3213	12.9	58.4
49	George Sauer	1965--1970	nyj	SE-WR	45	172	3019	17.55	67.1	30	137	1977	14.43	65.9
50	Joe Horn	1996--2007	kan-nor-atl	WR	71	319	4739	14.86	66.7	77	285	4055	14.23	52.7
51	Otis Taylor	1965--1974	kan	WR-FL	75	265	4985	18.81	66.5	41	146	2323	15.91	56.7
52	Mark Duper	1983--1992	mia	WR	88	324	5839	18.02	66.4	55	219	3625	16.55	65.9
53	Bob Hayes	1965--1975	dal-sfo	SE-WR	87	268	5679	21.19	65.3	41	126	2128	16.89	51.9
54	Steve Watson	1979--1987	den	WR	63	223	4112	18.44	65.3	39	147	2314	15.74	59.3
55	Roddy White	2005--2011	atl	WR	62	296	4032	13.62	65	53	256	3535	13.81	66.7
56	Rod Smith	1995--2006	den	WR	121	575	7865	13.68	65	64	323	4384	13.57	68.5
57	Flipper Anderson	1988--1995	ram-clt	WR	34	99	2204	22.26	64.8	58	175	3323	18.99	57.3
58	Eddie Brown	1985--1991	cin	WR	53	175	3431	19.61	64.7	51	197	2802	14.22	54.9
59	Wes Welker	2004--2011	sdg-mia-nwe	WR	86	509	5554	10.91	64.6	45	194	2110	10.88	46.9
60	Derrick Alexander	1994--2002	cle-rav-kan-min	WR	48	167	3092	18.51	64.4	69	251	3909	15.57	56.7
61	Andre Reed	1985--2000	buf-was	WR	134	599	8621	14.39	64.3	106	437	5806	13.29	54.8
62	Antonio Gates	2003--2011	sdg	TE	80	375	5124	13.66	64.1	53	257	3108	12.09	58.6
63	Wes Chandler	1978--1988	nor-sdg-sfo	WR	61	234	3894	16.64	63.8	84	348	5419	15.57	64.5
64	Anthony Miller	1988--1997	sdg-den-dal	WR	71	272	4512	16.59	63.5	82	332	4773	14.38	58.2
65	Al Denson	1964--1971	den-min	WR-TE	25	89	1581	17.76	63.2	49	163	2608	16	53.2
66	Antonio Freeman	1995--2003	gnb-phi	WR	95	375	5978	15.94	62.9	41	155	2096	13.52	51.1
67	Lee Evans	2004--2011	buf-rav	WR	51	174	3203	18.41	62.8	67	211	2874	13.62	42.9
68	Plaxico Burress	2000--2011	pit-nyg-nyj	WR	95	385	5923	15.38	62.3	57	202	2969	14.7	52.1
69	Santana Moss	2001--2011	nyj-was	WR	74	285	4606	16.16	62.2	88	387	4963	12.82	56.4
70	Brandon Marshall	2006--2011	den-mia	WR	43	214	2676	12.5	62.2	48	280	3571	12.75	74.4
71	Keyshawn Johnson	1996--2006	nyj-tam-dal-car	WR	92	447	5691	12.73	61.9	82	406	5449	13.42	66.5
72	Joey Galloway	1995--2010	sea-dal-tam-nwe-was	WR	85	321	5205	16.21	61.2	107	393	5904	15.02	55.2
73	Muhsin Muhammad	1996--2009	car-chi	WR	105	477	6407	13.43	61	96	413	5589	13.53	58.2
74	Henry Ellard	1983--1998	ram-was-nwe	WR	99	343	6040	17.61	61	125	492	8079	16.42	64.6
75	Tommy McDonald	1960--1968	phi-dal-ram-atl-cle	WR-HB	49	166	2979	17.95	60.8	61	222	3493	15.73	57.3
76	Anthony Carter	1985--1995	min-det	WR	80	293	4853	16.56	60.7	62	233	3535	15.17	57
77	Art Monk	1980--1995	was-nyj-phi	WR	142	631	8609	13.64	60.6	95	378	5174	13.69	54.5
78	Red Phillips	1960--1967	ram-min	E	24	94	1455	15.48	60.6	53	214	3147	14.71	59.4
79	Roger Carr	1974--1983	clt-sea-sdg	WR	40	110	2425	22.05	60.6	60	163	2681	16.45	44.7
80	Paul Flatley	1963--1970	min-atl	WR-FL	34	117	2061	17.62	60.6	55	179	2742	15.32	49.9
81	David Boston	1999--2005	crd-sdg-mia	WR	27	109	1626	14.92	60.2	47	206	3073	14.92	65.4
82	Ernest Givins	1986--1995	oti-jax	WR	75	320	4516	14.11	60.2	80	311	4473	14.38	55.9
83	Dwight Clark	1979--1987	sfo	WR	81	343	4872	14.2	60.1	46	216	2648	12.26	57.6
84	Santonio Holmes	2006--2011	pit-nyj	WR	57	211	3425	16.23	60.1	38	152	2212	14.55	58.2
85	Paul Warfield	1964--1977	cle-mia	WR-SE	115	340	6892	20.27	59.9	47	132	2497	18.92	53.1
86	Laveranues Coles	2000--2009	nyj-was-cin	WR	71	323	4253	13.17	59.9	81	378	4638	12.27	57.3
87	Jimmy Orr	1960--1970	pit-clt	WR	73	219	4372	19.96	59.9	38	119	2119	17.81	55.8
88	Elbert Dubenion	1960--1967	buf	WR-HB	53	159	3172	19.95	59.8	42	127	2075	16.34	49.4
89	Ken Burrough	1970--1981	nor-oti	WR	67	222	3977	17.91	59.4	80	204	3230	15.83	40.4
90	Stephone Paige	1983--1991	kan	WR	57	180	3361	18.67	59	63	203	3089	15.22	49
91	Todd Christensen	1980--1988	rai	TE-FB	66	306	3888	12.71	58.9	41	186	2342	12.59	57.1
92	Louis Lipps	1984--1992	pit-nor	WR	48	169	2827	16.73	58.9	63	204	3376	16.55	53.6
93	Jeff Graham	1991--2001	pit-chi-nyj-phi-sdg	WR	57	222	3345	15.07	58.7	85	335	5064	15.12	59.6
94	Harold Jackson	1969--1983	phi-ram-nwe-min-sea	WR-FL	100	296	5864	19.81	58.6	84	292	4835	16.56	57.6
95	Tim Brown	1988--2004	rai-tam	WR	135	562	7907	14.07	58.6	127	577	7608	13.19	59.9
96	Tony Martin	1990--2001	mia-sdg-atl	WR	103	369	6031	16.34	58.6	76	267	3732	13.98	49.1
97	John Stallworth	1974--1987	pit	WR	103	361	6023	16.68	58.5	58	230	3687	16.03	63.6
98	Eric Martin	1985--1994	nor-kan	WR	85	315	4969	15.77	58.5	68	253	3396	13.42	49.9
99	Stanley Morgan	1977--1990	nwe-clt	WR	99	298	5787	19.42	58.5	86	278	5250	18.88	61
100	Alfred Jenkins	1975--1983	atl	WR	50	170	2903	17.08	58.1	60	196	3571	18.22	59.5
101	Jason Witten	2003--2011	dal	TE	77	381	4457	11.7	57.9	67	343	3745	10.92	55.9
102	Kellen Winslow Jr.	2004--2011	cle-tam	TE	34	153	1967	12.86	57.9	58	284	2869	10.1	49.5
103	Braylon Edwards	2005--2011	cle-nyj-sfo	WR	48	172	2759	16.04	57.5	57	184	2884	15.67	50.6
104	Cris Collinsworth	1981--1988	cin	WR	60	216	3446	15.95	57.4	48	222	3606	16.24	75.1
105	Gene A. Washington	1969--1979	sfo-det	WR-SE	60	178	3445	19.35	57.4	69	210	3535	16.83	51.2
106	John Gilliam	1967--1977	nor-crd-min-atl	WR-FL	69	206	3947	19.16	57.2	70	176	3017	17.14	43.1
107	Chris Burford	1960--1967	kan	SE-WR	52	205	2971	14.49	57.1	38	157	2292	14.6	60.3
108	Max McGee	1960--1967	gnb	E	57	177	3244	18.33	56.9	19	56	1067	19.05	56.2
109	Charlie Joiner	1969--1986	oti-cin-sdg	WR	114	404	6476	16.03	56.8	114	375	6132	16.35	53.8
110	Tony Hill	1977--1986	dal	WR	97	335	5508	16.44	56.8	46	190	3098	16.31	67.3
111	Bernie Casey	1961--1968	sfo-ram	FB-WR	45	162	2547	15.72	56.6	44	160	2331	14.57	53
112	Charley Taylor	1964--1977	was	WR-RB	87	341	4918	14.42	56.5	70	297	4071	13.71	58.2
113	Javon Walker	2002--2009	gnb-den-rai	WR	45	157	2537	16.16	56.4	38	123	1760	14.31	46.3
114	Jerry Butler	1979--1986	buf	WR	38	139	2139	15.39	56.3	47	146	2285	15.65	48.6
115	Carlos Carson	1980--1989	kan-phi	WR	50	147	2809	19.11	56.2	63	203	3444	16.97	54.7
116	Webster Slaughter	1986--1998	cle-oti-kan-nyj-sdg	WR	76	276	4265	15.45	56.1	84	314	4243	13.51	50.5
117	Hines Ward	1998--2011	pit	WR	145	684	8129	11.88	56.1	83	393	4996	12.71	60.2
118	Gail Cogdill	1960--1970	det-atl	SE-WR	54	172	3023	17.58	56	53	164	2431	14.82	45.9
119	Johnny Morris	1960--1967	chi	FL-HB	51	189	2847	15.06	55.8	37	141	1794	12.72	48.5
120	Chris Chambers	2001--2010	mia-sdg-kan	WR	74	273	4127	15.12	55.8	76	291	3928	13.5	51.7
121	Cliff Branch	1972--1984	rai	WR	129	401	7184	17.92	55.7	49	170	2739	16.11	55.9
122	Andre Rison	1989--2000	clt-atl-cle-jax-gnb-kan-rai	WR	92	361	5120	14.18	55.7	92	411	5500	13.38	59.8
123	Reggie Rucker	1970--1981	dal-nyg-nwe-cle	WR	70	235	3890	16.55	55.6	79	215	3234	15.04	40.9
124	Eddie Kennison	1996--2007	ram-nor-chi-den-kan	WR	75	245	4163	16.99	55.5	102	306	4232	13.83	41.5
125	Antonio Bryant	2002--2009	dal-cle-sfo-tam	WR	40	148	2217	14.98	55.4	64	225	3472	15.43	54.3
126	Donald Driver	1999--2011	gnb	WR	115	471	6368	13.52	55.4	76	313	4367	13.95	57.5
127	Marty Booker	1999--2009	chi-mia-atl	WR	57	242	3153	13.03	55.3	85	299	3568	11.93	42
128	Yancey Thigpen	1992--2000	pit-oti	WR	67	227	3701	16.3	55.2	33	121	1800	14.88	54.5
129	Tony Gonzalez	1997--2011	kan-atl	TE	122	562	6723	11.96	55.1	116	603	6772	11.23	58.4
130	Vance Johnson	1985--1995	den	WR	70	269	3856	14.33	55.1	51	183	2520	13.77	49.4
131	Curtis Conway	1993--2004	chi-sdg-nyj-sfo	WR	61	232	3359	14.48	55.1	97	369	4952	13.42	51.1
132	Roy Jefferson	1965--1976	pit-clt-was	WR-SE	78	251	4265	16.99	54.7	72	217	3494	16.1	48.5
133	Fred Biletnikoff	1965--1978	rai	WR-FL	136	475	7424	15.63	54.6	46	148	2137	14.44	46.5
134	Lionel Taylor	1960--1968	den-oti	WR	31	136	1691	12.43	54.5	71	405	5153	12.72	72.6
135	Vincent Jackson	2005--2011	sdg	WR	63	194	3429	17.68	54.4	33	107	1828	17.08	55.4
136	Jim Colclough	1960--1968	nwe	E	49	148	2666	18.01	54.4	45	112	1874	16.73	41.6
137	Carroll Dale	1960--1973	ram-gnb-min	WR-TE	91	245	4949	20.2	54.4	73	211	3660	17.35	50.1
138	Dave Parks	1964--1973	sfo-nor-oti	WR-TE	31	107	1681	15.71	54.2	67	215	3424	15.93	51.1
139	Shannon Sharpe	1990--2003	den-rav	TE	131	534	7100	13.3	54.2	69	343	3774	11	54.7
140	Ben Hawkins	1966--1973	phi	WR	28	75	1517	20.23	54.2	57	171	2945	17.22	51.7
141	Eric Moulds	1996--2007	buf-htx-oti	WR	89	344	4803	13.96	54	100	435	5512	12.67	55.1
142	Isaac Curtis	1973--1984	cin	WR	79	226	4263	18.86	54	75	203	3022	14.89	40.3
143	Brian Blades	1988--1998	sea	WR	66	268	3556	13.27	53.9	78	318	4142	13.03	53.1
144	Lynn Swann	1974--1982	pit	WR	94	302	5054	16.74	53.8	32	80	1300	16.25	40.6
145	Deion Branch	2002--2011	nwe-sea	WR	94	367	5048	13.75	53.7	51	197	2383	12.1	46.7
146	Sammy White	1976--1985	min	WR	68	211	3646	17.28	53.6	61	188	2893	15.39	47.4
147	Kevin House	1980--1987	tam-ram	WR	30	89	1608	18.07	53.6	70	218	3693	16.94	52.8
148	Haywood Jeffires	1987--1996	oti-nor	WR	65	272	3483	12.81	53.6	68	304	3364	11.07	49.5
149	Roy Green	1979--1992	crd-phi	WR	76	239	4066	17.01	53.5	104	318	4826	15.18	46.4
150	Ahmad Rashad	1972--1982	crd-buf-min	WR	71	271	3769	13.91	53.1	67	236	3295	13.96	49.2
151	Amani Toomer	1996--2008	nyg	WR	110	403	5831	14.47	53	89	307	4232	13.79	47.6
152	Bobby Mitchell	1960--1968	cle-was	WR-HB	52	175	2750	15.71	52.9	62	263	4192	15.94	67.6
153	Bill Brooks	1986--1996	clt-buf-was	WR	74	278	3910	14.06	52.8	85	332	4403	13.26	51.8
154	Harold Carmichael	1971--1984	phi-dal	WR-TE	82	279	4306	15.43	52.5	99	333	5001	15.02	50.5
155	Drew Pearson	1973--1983	dal	WR	121	391	6350	16.24	52.5	50	165	2577	15.62	51.5
156	Lance Rentzel	1965--1974	min-dal-ram	WR-FL	66	180	3458	19.21	52.4	42	94	1544	16.43	36.8
157	Irving Fryar	1984--2000	nwe-mia-phi-was	WR	119	398	6230	15.65	52.4	135	477	6845	14.35	50.7
158	Bert Emanuel	1994--2001	atl-tam-mia-nwe-det	WR	44	158	2300	14.56	52.3	52	202	2683	13.28	51.6
159	Keenan McCardell	1992--2007	cle-jax-tam-sdg-was	WR	123	495	6428	12.99	52.3	87	443	5567	12.57	64
160	Aaron Thomas	1961--1970	sfo-nyg	TE-SE	35	87	1828	21.01	52.2	55	170	2665	15.68	48.5
161	Mark Clayton	1983--1993	mia-gnb	WR	102	336	5303	15.78	52	65	278	4178	15.03	64.3
162	Jake Reed	1992--2002	min-nor	WR	72	251	3742	14.91	52	62	225	3666	16.29	59.1
163	Roy E. Williams	2004--2011	det-dal-chi	WR	46	161	2388	14.83	51.9	66	237	3386	14.29	51.3
164	Henry Marshall	1976--1987	kan	WR	58	188	2982	15.86	51.4	84	234	3635	15.53	43.3
165	John Taylor	1987--1995	sfo	WR	94	302	4825	15.98	51.3	35	91	1507	16.56	43.1
166	Ricky Sanders	1986--1995	was-atl	WR	80	286	4105	14.35	51.3	57	228	2889	12.67	50.7
167	Alvin Harper	1991--1997	dal-tam-was	WR	56	139	2871	20.65	51.3	29	76	1257	16.54	43.3
168	Frank Clarke	1960--1967	dal	E	37	112	1887	16.85	51	51	149	2959	19.86	58
169	Marcus Robinson	1998--2006	chi-rav-min	WR	47	160	2394	14.96	50.9	55	172	2441	14.19	44.4
170	T.J. Houshmandzadeh	2001--2011	cin-sea-rav-rai	WR	57	253	2893	11.43	50.8	81	370	4286	11.58	52.9
171	Drew Hill	1979--1993	ram-oti-atl	WR	103	334	5220	15.63	50.7	105	339	5152	15.2	49.1
172	Michael Jackson	1991--1998	cle-rav	WR	39	127	1969	15.5	50.5	62	234	3556	15.2	57.4
173	Willie Davis	1992--1998	kan-oti	WR	61	183	3073	16.79	50.4	44	119	1669	14.03	37.9
174	Boyd Dowler	1960--1971	gnb-was	FL-SE	102	324	5112	15.78	50.1	40	119	1600	13.45	40
175	Derrick Mason	1997--2011	oti-rav-nyj-htx	WR	141	542	7053	13.01	50	97	450	5609	12.46	57.8
176	Johnnie Morton	1994--2005	det-kan-sfo	WR	75	267	3746	14.03	49.9	97	368	5092	13.84	52.5
177	Mark Carrier	1987--1998	tam-cle-car	WR	64	212	3188	15.04	49.8	102	366	5668	15.49	55.6
178	Danny Abramowicz	1967--1974	nor-sfo	E	30	97	1494	15.4	49.8	74	255	3884	15.23	52.5
179	Wayne Chrebet	1995--2005	nyj	WR	69	263	3435	13.06	49.8	81	336	4199	12.5	51.8
180	Dave Kocourek	1960--1968	sdg-mia-rai	TE-FL	55	157	2727	17.37	49.6	37	98	1509	15.4	40.8
181	Ed McCaffrey	1991--2003	nyg-sfo-den	WR	106	380	5212	13.72	49.2	58	227	2764	12.18	47.7
182	Michael Westbrook	1995--2002	was-cin	WR	39	135	1914	14.18	49.1	42	144	2361	16.4	56.2
183	Lionel Manuel	1984--1990	nyg	WR	50	143	2444	17.09	48.9	33	103	1740	16.89	52.7
184	Gary Collins	1962--1971	cle	WR	80	240	3877	16.15	48.5	42	95	1497	15.76	35.6
185	Robert Brooks	1992--2000	gnb-den	WR	67	226	3244	14.35	48.4	36	128	1683	13.15	46.8
186	Frank Sanders	1995--2003	crd-rav	WR	48	178	2323	13.05	48.4	80	336	4528	13.48	56.6
187	Jerry Porter	2000--2008	rai-jax	WR	38	116	1839	15.85	48.4	62	197	2573	13.06	41.5
188	Mel Gray	1971--1982	crd	WR	65	167	3113	18.64	47.9	78	188	3545	18.86	45.4
189	Tim McGee	1986--1994	cin-was	WR	53	145	2526	17.42	47.7	69	183	2737	14.96	39.7
190	Frank Lewis	1971--1983	pit-buf	WR	86	229	4098	17.9	47.7	58	190	3114	16.39	53.7
191	Bernard Berrian	2004--2011	chi-min	WR	58	178	2761	15.51	47.6	52	143	1827	12.78	35.1
192	Sean Dawkins	1993--2001	clt-nor-sea-jax	WR	54	173	2566	14.83	47.5	78	290	3960	13.66	50.8
193	Willie Gault	1983--1993	chi-rai	WR	98	227	4653	20.5	47.5	58	127	2479	19.52	42.7
194	Dallas Clark	2003--2011	clt	TE	88	358	4175	11.66	47.4	36	133	1559	11.72	43.3
195	Jessie Hester	1985--1995	rai-atl-clt-ram	WR	49	133	2318	17.43	47.3	73	241	3548	14.72	48.6
196	Michael Haynes	1988--1997	atl-nor	WR	52	155	2459	15.86	47.3	81	280	4288	15.31	52.9
197	Haven Moses	1968--1981	buf-den	WR-SE	82	199	3856	19.38	47	90	253	4425	17.49	49.2
198	Jackie Smith	1963--1978	crd-dal	TE	84	226	3950	17.48	47	77	235	3696	15.73	48
199	Mark Jackson	1986--1994	den-nyg-clt	WR	74	205	3472	16.94	46.9	53	159	2491	15.67	47
200	Terance Mathis	1990--2002	nyj-atl-pit	WR	86	299	4002	13.38	46.5	114	419	5206	12.42	45.7
201	Bob Chandler	1971--1981	buf-rai	WR	48	145	2233	15.4	46.5	67	229	3058	13.35	45.6
202	Milt Morin	1966--1975	cle	TE	56	165	2599	15.75	46.4	46	117	1710	14.62	37.2
203	Reggie Langhorne	1985--1993	cle-clt	WR	63	205	2923	14.26	46.4	59	229	2874	12.55	48.7
204	Pat Tilley	1976--1986	crd	WR	61	189	2830	14.97	46.4	74	280	4186	14.95	56.6
205	John Mackey	1963--1972	clt-sdg	TE	89	253	4128	16.32	46.4	33	77	1133	14.71	34.3
206	Michael Timpson	1989--1997	nwe-chi-phi	WR	41	137	1900	13.87	46.3	61	164	2154	13.13	35.3
207	Bill Schroeder	1997--2004	gnb-det-tam	WR	50	150	2311	15.41	46.2	47	159	2342	14.73	49.8
208	Chris Cooley	2004--2011	was	TE	48	187	2211	11.82	46.1	60	252	2635	10.46	43.9
209	Brett Perriman	1988--1997	nor-det-kan-mia	WR	74	258	3390	13.14	45.8	72	294	3522	11.98	48.9
210	Dave Casper	1974--1984	rai-oti-min	TE	70	230	3202	13.92	45.7	44	175	2377	13.58	54
211	Dave Logan	1976--1984	cle-den	WR	47	133	2147	16.14	45.7	47	133	2166	16.29	46.1
212	Bobby Joe Conrad	1960--1969	crd-dal	WR-HB	62	191	2830	14.82	45.6	55	192	2563	13.35	46.6
213	Koren Robinson	2001--2008	sea-min-gnb	WR	51	159	2325	14.62	45.6	46	150	2063	13.75	44.8
214	Bobby Engram	1996--2009	chi-sea-kan	WR	80	301	3641	12.1	45.5	101	384	4586	11.94	45.4
215	Gary Ballman	1962--1973	pit-phi-nyg-min	WR-TE	35	89	1565	17.58	44.7	68	212	3451	16.28	50.8
216	Nat Moore	1974--1986	mia	WR-RB	119	363	5315	14.64	44.7	55	163	2312	14.18	42
217	Duriel Harris	1976--1985	mia-cle-dal	WR	68	185	3037	16.42	44.7	44	133	2284	17.17	51.9
218	Jack Snow	1965--1975	ram	WR-SE	85	214	3773	17.63	44.4	42	115	1978	17.2	47.1
219	Freddie Scott	1974--1983	clt-det	WR	36	95	1592	16.76	44.2	58	173	2766	15.99	47.7
220	Ray Butler	1980--1988	clt-sea	WR	34	90	1503	16.7	44.2	64	152	2543	16.73	39.7
221	Devery Henderson	2005--2011	nor	WR	64	150	2828	18.85	44.2	47	104	1697	16.32	36.1
222	J.J. Stokes	1995--2003	sfo-jax-nwe	WR	66	238	2913	12.24	44.1	49	141	1812	12.85	37
223	Charlie Sanders	1968--1977	det	TE	60	174	2643	15.19	44.1	50	151	1995	13.21	39.9
224	Kevin Johnson	1999--2005	cle-jax-rav-det	WR	38	133	1672	12.57	44	63	255	3063	12.01	48.6
225	Donte Stallworth	2002--2011	nor-phi-nwe-cle-rav-was	WR	61	164	2656	16.2	43.5	55	170	2372	13.95	43.1
226	Freddie Solomon	1975--1985	mia-sfo	WR	83	214	3595	16.8	43.3	63	191	2788	14.6	44.3
227	Ben Coates	1991--2000	nwe-rav	TE	70	276	3019	10.94	43.1	70	249	2794	11.22	39.9
228	Vernon Davis	2006--2011	sfo	TE	42	150	1811	12.07	43.1	45	164	2284	13.93	50.8
229	Rocket Ismail	1993--2001	rai-car-dal	WR	61	168	2617	15.58	42.9	65	204	2865	14.04	44.1
230	Qadry Ismail	1993--2002	min-mia-nor-rav-clt	WR	83	228	3544	15.54	42.7	58	143	1880	13.15	32.4
231	O.J. McDuffie	1993--2000	mia	WR	71	248	3005	12.12	42.3	52	217	2672	12.31	51.4
232	Mark Bavaro	1985--1994	nyg-cle-phi	TE	77	239	3254	13.62	42.3	40	142	1845	12.99	46.1
233	James Jett	1993--2001	rai	WR	55	127	2322	18.28	42.2	53	142	2269	15.98	42.8
234	Brent Jones	1987--1997	sfo	TE	113	366	4769	13.03	42.2	33	111	1166	10.5	35.3
235	Jeremy Shockey	2002--2011	nyg-nor-car	TE	82	309	3450	11.17	42.1	61	260	2918	11.22	47.8
236	Chris Calloway	1990--2000	pit-nyg-atl-nwe	WR	64	170	2691	15.83	42	72	223	2891	12.96	40.2
237	David Patten	1997--2008	nyg-cle-nwe-was-nor	WR	77	200	3236	16.18	42	63	144	1739	12.08	27.6
238	J.T. Smith	1978--1990	was-kan-crd	WR	64	211	2671	12.66	41.7	91	323	4172	12.92	45.8
239	Brandon Stokley	1999--2011	rav-clt-den-sea-nyg	WR	80	226	3295	14.58	41.2	49	156	2005	12.85	40.9
240	Calvin Williams	1990--1996	phi-rav	WR	58	184	2381	12.94	41.1	41	141	1744	12.37	42.5
241	Nate Burleson	2003--2011	min-sea-det	WR	64	210	2626	12.5	41	60	204	2576	12.63	42.9
242	Ron Jessie	1971--1981	det-ram-buf	WR	74	181	3031	16.75	41	43	96	1431	14.91	33.3
243	Keith Jackson	1988--1996	phi-mia-gnb	TE	87	288	3560	12.36	40.9	47	204	2557	12.53	54.4
244	Jeff Chadwick	1983--1992	det-sea-ram	WR	44	103	1799	17.47	40.9	62	191	2750	14.4	44.4
245	Curtis Duncan	1987--1993	oti	WR	58	210	2368	11.28	40.8	42	146	1841	12.61	43.8
246	Mike Sherrard	1986--1996	dal-sfo-nyg-den	WR	62	162	2528	15.6	40.8	32	104	1476	14.19	46.1
247	Shawn Jefferson	1991--2003	sdg-nwe-atl-det	WR	96	253	3914	15.47	40.8	88	244	3390	13.89	38.5
248	Marshall Faulk	1994--2005	clt-ram	RB	99	422	4022	9.53	40.6	89	397	3372	8.49	37.9
249	Jabar Gaffney	2002--2011	htx-nwe-den-was	WR	66	199	2681	13.47	40.6	82	269	3223	11.98	39.3
250	Willie Green	1991--1998	det-tam-car-den	WR	55	147	2233	15.19	40.6	35	117	1844	15.76	52.7
251	Todd Heap	2001--2011	rav-crd	TE	83	273	3369	12.34	40.6	63	250	2791	11.16	44.3
252	Mike Ditka	1961--1972	chi-phi-dal	TE	80	239	3240	13.56	40.5	54	184	2416	13.13	44.7
253	Torrance Small	1992--2001	nor-ram-clt-phi-nwe	WR	51	141	2053	14.56	40.3	71	213	2624	12.32	37
254	Peerless Price	1999--2007	buf-atl-dal	WR	54	159	2158	13.57	40	67	254	3244	12.77	48.4
255	Mike Renfro	1978--1987	oti-dal	WR	53	140	2117	15.12	39.9	60	190	2759	14.52	46
256	Quinn Early	1988--1999	sdg-nor-buf-nyj	WR	73	203	2914	14.35	39.9	76	278	3790	13.63	49.9
257	Chris Burkett	1985--1993	buf-nyj	WR	41	110	1635	14.86	39.9	66	185	2772	14.98	42
258	Ike Hilliard	1997--2008	nyg-tam	WR	79	258	3148	12.2	39.8	85	312	3534	11.33	41.6
259	Drew Bennett	2001--2008	oti-ram	WR	44	116	1752	15.1	39.8	53	205	2868	13.99	54.1
260	Jerricho Cotchery	2004--2011	nyj-pit	WR	62	206	2461	11.95	39.7	58	199	2761	13.87	47.6
261	Mike Pritchard	1991--1999	atl-den-sea	WR	58	172	2297	13.35	39.6	67	263	3043	11.57	45.4
262	Nate Washington	2005--2011	pit-oti	WR	55	139	2175	15.65	39.5	45	137	1892	13.81	42
263	Riley Odoms	1972--1983	den	TE	83	220	3279	14.9	39.5	61	176	2379	13.52	39
264	Sam McCullum	1974--1983	min-sea	WR	51	131	2003	15.29	39.3	63	150	2128	14.19	33.8
265	Jay Novacek	1985--1995	crd-dal	TE	84	298	3281	11.01	39.1	52	186	1994	10.72	38.3
266	Ozzie Newsome	1978--1990	cle	TE	102	324	3977	12.27	39	98	365	4376	11.99	44.7
267	Bob Trumpy	1968--1977	cin	TE-WR	60	147	2331	15.86	38.9	58	147	2103	14.31	36.3
268	Raymond Chester	1970--1981	rai-clt	TE	80	199	3099	15.57	38.7	63	172	2146	12.48	34.1
269	Travis Taylor	2000--2007	rav-min-rai-ram	WR	52	153	2013	13.16	38.7	50	172	2162	12.57	43.2
270	Joe Jurevicius	1998--2007	nyg-tam-sea-cle	WR	68	195	2629	13.48	38.7	51	145	1832	12.63	35.9
271	Wesley Walls	1989--2003	sfo-nor-car-gnb	TE	68	206	2604	12.64	38.3	81	253	2766	10.93	34.1
272	Ricky Proehl	1990--2006	crd-sea-chi-ram-car-clt	WR	112	299	4279	14.31	38.2	117	393	4962	12.63	42.4
273	Bob Tucker	1970--1980	nyg-min	TE	56	161	2129	13.22	38	82	255	3187	12.5	38.9
274	Steve Jordan	1982--1994	min	TE	86	255	3269	12.82	38	81	269	3381	12.57	41.7
275	Leonard Thompson	1975--1986	det	WR-HB	52	116	1976	17.03	38	80	169	2868	16.97	35.9
276	Charles Johnson	1994--2002	pit-phi-nwe-buf	WR	69	204	2616	12.82	37.9	49	173	2283	13.2	46.6
277	Jerry Smith	1965--1977	was	TE-WR	75	206	2841	13.79	37.9	60	190	2344	12.34	39.1
278	Rich Caster	1970--1981	nyj-oti-nor-was	TE-WR	58	123	2197	17.86	37.9	76	207	3385	16.35	44.5
279	Michael Jenkins	2004--2011	atl-min	WR	52	144	1954	13.57	37.6	54	184	2168	11.78	40.1
280	Alge Crumpler	2001--2010	atl-oti-nwe	TE	73	196	2740	13.98	37.5	68	191	2168	11.35	31.9
281	Paul Coffman	1979--1987	gnb-kan	TE	49	145	1838	12.68	37.5	62	196	2489	12.7	40.1
282	Courtney Hawkins	1992--2000	tam-pit	WR	55	170	2059	12.11	37.4	70	204	2572	12.61	36.7
283	Russ Francis	1975--1988	nwe-sfo	TE	96	277	3587	12.95	37.4	55	151	2149	14.23	39.1
284	Billy Cannon	1960--1970	oti-rai-kan	TE-RB	80	174	2986	17.16	37.3	31	81	945	11.67	30.5
285	Jimmie Giles	1977--1989	oti-tam-det-phi	TE	50	122	1861	15.25	37.2	88	232	3306	14.25	37.6
286	Brian Brennan	1984--1992	cle-cin-sdg	WR	61	172	2267	13.18	37.2	62	184	2378	12.92	38.4
287	Eric Green	1990--1999	pit-mia-rav-nyj	TE	55	167	2017	12.08	36.7	57	200	2488	12.44	43.6
288	Troy Brown	1993--2007	nwe	WR	120	392	4392	11.2	36.6	81	223	2668	11.96	32.9
289	Gino Cappelletti	1960--1970	nwe	FL-SE	63	132	2305	17.46	36.6	70	139	2037	14.65	29.1
290	Justin McCareins	2001--2008	oti-nyj	WR	61	145	2230	15.38	36.6	53	118	1806	15.31	34.1
291	Rick Upchurch	1975--1983	den	WR	67	151	2439	16.15	36.4	53	117	1939	16.57	36.6
292	Frank Wycheck	1993--2003	was-oti	TE	86	299	3129	10.46	36.4	67	243	2310	9.51	34.5
293	Heath Miller	2005--2011	pit	TE	80	239	2863	11.98	35.8	39	138	1498	10.86	38.4
294	Floyd Turner	1989--1998	nor-clt-rav	WR	46	129	1638	12.7	35.6	54	167	2382	14.26	44.1
295	Mark Ingram	1987--1996	nyg-mia-gnb-phi	WR	65	153	2301	15.04	35.4	47	128	1815	14.18	38.6
296	Ken Dilger	1995--2004	clt-tam	TE	69	192	2439	12.7	35.3	75	180	1819	10.11	24.3
297	Rodney Holman	1982--1995	cin-det	TE	81	210	2816	13.41	34.8	79	173	2200	12.72	27.8
298	Dennis Northcutt	2000--2009	cle-jax-det	WR	49	132	1702	12.89	34.7	97	278	3390	12.19	34.9
299	Pete Holohan	1981--1992	sdg-ram-kan-cle	TE	62	190	2149	11.31	34.7	63	189	1995	10.56	31.7
300	Mickey Shuler	1978--1991	nyj-phi	TE	68	222	2352	10.59	34.6	71	248	2845	11.47	40.1
301	Jerome Barkum	1972--1983	nyj	TE-WR	54	129	1855	14.38	34.4	72	201	2990	14.88	41.5
302	Az-Zahir Hakim	1998--2006	ram-det-nor	WR	57	145	1917	13.22	33.6	55	192	2558	13.32	46.5
303	Brian Westbrook	2002--2010	phi-sfo	RB	80	269	2658	9.88	33.2	49	203	1605	7.91	32.8
304	Larry Centers	1990--2003	crd-was-buf-nwe	FB	84	341	2782	8.16	33.1	119	507	4177	8.24	35.1
305	John L. Williams	1986--1995	sea-pit	FB	81	290	2677	9.23	33	75	287	2222	7.74	29.6
306	Brandon Lloyd	2003--2011	sfo-was-chi-den-ram	WR	32	81	1049	12.95	32.8	73	230	3735	16.24	51.2
307	Billy Johnson	1974--1988	oti-atl-was	WR	65	159	2110	13.27	32.5	71	176	2077	11.8	29.3
308	Randy McMichael	2002--2011	mia-ram-sdg	TE	53	160	1686	10.54	31.8	88	257	2802	10.9	31.8
309	Roger Craig	1983--1993	sfo-rai-min	RB	127	431	4005	9.29	31.5	53	195	1500	7.69	28.3
310	Ricky Watters	1992--2001	sfo-phi-sea	RB	91	289	2851	9.87	31.3	63	215	1815	8.44	28.8
311	Ronnie Harmon	1986--1997	buf-sdg-oti-chi	RB-WR	94	283	2934	10.37	31.2	89	350	3612	10.32	40.6
312	Tiki Barber	1997--2006	nyg	RB	80	267	2497	9.35	31.2	80	338	2817	8.33	35.2
313	Eric Metcalf	1989--2002	cle-atl-sdg-crd-car-was-gnb	RB-WR	83	238	2564	10.77	30.9	102	317	3185	10.05	31.2
314	Jim R. Mitchell	1969--1979	atl	TE	57	139	1759	12.65	30.9	66	160	2375	14.84	36
315	Keith Byars	1986--1998	phi-mia-nwe-nyj	FB-TE	119	390	3665	9.4	30.8	79	272	2439	8.97	30.9
316	Freddie Jones	1997--2004	sdg-crd	TE	37	109	1131	10.38	30.6	79	295	3101	10.51	39.3
317	Tony Nathan	1979--1987	mia	RB	89	290	2705	9.33	30.4	45	158	1536	9.72	34.1
318	Tony McGee	1993--2002	cin-dal	TE	39	92	1178	12.8	30.2	89	230	2911	12.66	32.7
319	Jackie Harris	1990--2001	gnb-tam-oti-dal	TE	63	157	1881	11.98	29.9	79	251	2650	10.56	33.5
320	Joe Morrison	1960--1972	nyg	RB-WR	66	147	1958	13.32	29.7	79	224	2747	12.26	34.8
321	Charle Young	1973--1985	phi-ram-sfo-sea	TE	76	190	2253	11.86	29.6	71	241	3002	12.46	42.3
322	David Hill	1976--1987	det-ram	TE	71	182	2091	11.49	29.5	76	187	2211	11.82	29.1
323	Billy Joe DuPree	1973--1983	dal	TE	101	213	2933	13.77	29	42	93	1079	11.6	25.7
324	Antwaan Randle El	2002--2010	pit-was	WR	88	184	2473	13.44	28.1	66	220	2402	10.92	36.4
325	Kelvin Martin	1987--1996	dal-sea-phi	WR	68	138	1839	13.33	27	74	238	3023	12.7	40.9
326	Thurman Thomas	1988--2000	buf-mia	RB	130	346	3411	9.86	26.2	71	202	1719	8.51	24.2
327	Marcus Pollard	1996--2008	clt-det-sea-atl	TE	81	183	2113	11.55	26.1	81	185	2402	12.98	29.7
328	LaDainian Tomlinson	2001--2011	sdg-nyj	RB	104	341	2683	7.87	25.8	76	308	2265	7.35	29.8
329	Walter Payton	1975--1987	chi	RB	113	278	2645	9.51	23.4	86	236	2071	8.78	24.1
330	Herschel Walker	1986--1997	dal-min-phi-nyg	RB	84	211	1957	9.27	23.3	106	311	2962	9.52	27.9
331	Kevin Faulk	1999--2011	nwe	RB	125	328	2885	8.8	23.1	54	154	1228	7.97	22.7
332	Marcus Allen	1982--1997	rai-kan	RB	145	341	3186	9.34	22	91	299	2755	9.21	30.3
333	Warrick Dunn	1997--2008	tam-atl	RB	98	244	2141	8.77	21.8	92	301	2454	8.15	26.7
334	Earnest Byner	1984--1997	cle-was-rav	RB	111	271	2399	8.85	21.6	102	278	2584	9.29	25.3
335	Tony Galbreath	1976--1987	nor-min-nyg	RB	79	175	1470	8.4	18.6	90	326	2667	8.18	29.6

[continue reading…]