The Least-Conforming Game of 2018 Might Surprise You

by Chase Stuart on November 21, 2018

in Checkdowns, SRS

There have been two really remarkable upsets this season: one at the time, and one particularly in retrospect.

In week 3, the Bills went on the road and hammered the Minnesota Vikings, 27-6. Buffalo was a 16.5-point underdog; this season, no other team has won a game as an underdog of more than 10 points. It was an anomaly of historic proportions, marking the first time a team was ever a 15-point underdog and won by 15 or more points.

The other remarkable game was in week 1, when the Saints lost at home to Tampa Bay. The Bucs are 2-7 since that game, while New Orleans is 9-0. So while it was a huge upset at the time — it is tied with Titans/Jaguars as the second biggest upset of the season (10-point spread) — it’s even more remarkable in retrospect.

Every season, I like to look at the least conforming games of the year. I do this by generating each team’s Simple Rating System rating — which is just points differential per game adjusted by opponent and home field. Note that I am not using SRS ratings at the time of the game, but SRS ratings as of the end of (or current point in) the season. So while these are still subject to change, for now, New Orleans has an SRS of +14.0 ^[1]Note that these numbers will differ slightly from what PFR posts, because I count the London games as neutral site games, while PFR counts them as true home/road games. while Tampa Bay has an SRS rating of -4.1. The beauty of the SRS is each point represents a point above or below average, and you can use the SRS ratings to predict games.

When a +14.0 team hosts a -4.1 team, you’d expect the home team to win by about 21 points. Since the Saints lost by 8 points, this game was nonconforming by the tune of 29 points. That’s a lot.

Minnesota has an SRS of +0.4, while Buffalo has an SRS of -9.1. Therefore, we would have predicted that at home, the Vikings would beat the Bills by 12.5 points; instead, Buffalo won by 21 points. That’s nonconforming to the rune of 33.5 points.

But it’s not the most nonconforming game of the year. And in fact, it’s not the most nonconforming Bills game of the year. In week 10, Buffalo won on the road against the Jets, 41-10. The Jets have an SRS of -7.2, so at home against the -9.1 Bills, you’d expect New York to win by about 5 points. Since they lost by 31 points, that game was off by about 36 points.

But that wasn’t the most nonconforming game of the year. And in fact, it’s not the most nonconforming Jets game of the year. In week 1, the Jets traveled to Detroit to face the -4.6 SRS Lions. You’d expect the Jets to lose by about 5.6 points, given the two team’s SRS ratings and home field. Well, New York won by 31 points, meaning the game went 36.6 points in the wrong direction. That makes it, by this one method, the least-conforming game of 2018.

The table below shows every game this year. It’s fully sortable and searchable, so you can sort all games in week 1, or search by team.

Wk	Team	H/R	Opponent	PF	PA	Tm SRS	Opp SRS	EXP MOV	ACT MOV	DIFF
1	New York Jets	@	Detroit Lions	48	17	-7.2	-4.6	-5.6	31	36.6
10	Buffalo Bills	@	New York Jets	41	10	-9.1	-7.2	-4.9	31	35.9
3	Buffalo Bills	@	Minnesota Vikings	27	6	-9.1	0.4	-12.5	21	33.5
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	@	New Orleans Saints	48	40	-4.1	14.0	-21.0	8	29.0
9	Atlanta Falcons	@	Washington Redskins	38	14	-1.2	-0.8	-3.4	24	27.4
7	Denver Broncos	@	Arizona Cardinals	45	10	1.4	-9.9	8.3	35	26.7
10	Tennessee Titans		New England Patriots	34	10	-1.1	3.8	-2.0	24	26.0
6	Dallas Cowboys		Jacksonville Jaguars	40	7	0.7	-3.4	7.1	33	25.9
4	Chicago Bears		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	48	10	5.9	-4.1	12.9	38	25.1
1	Baltimore Ravens		Buffalo Bills	47	3	7.2	-9.1	19.3	44	24.7
10	New Orleans Saints	@	Cincinnati Bengals	51	14	14.0	-1.9	12.9	37	24.1
5	New York Jets		Denver Broncos	34	16	-7.2	1.4	-5.6	18	23.6
11	Indianapolis Colts		Tennessee Titans	38	10	1.7	-1.1	5.8	28	22.2
6	Philadelphia Eagles	@	New York Giants	34	13	-2.6	-4.8	-0.8	21	21.8
3	Detroit Lions		New England Patriots	26	10	-4.6	3.8	-5.4	16	21.4
11	New Orleans Saints		Philadelphia Eagles	48	7	14.0	-2.6	19.6	41	21.4
9	San Francisco 49ers		Oakland Raiders	34	3	-5.1	-11.9	9.8	31	21.2
6	Los Angeles Chargers	@	Cleveland Browns	38	14	4.1	-2.2	3.4	24	20.6
9	Chicago Bears	@	Buffalo Bills	41	9	5.9	-9.1	12.0	32	20.0
10	Pittsburgh Steelers		Carolina Panthers	52	21	8.5	0.4	11.0	31	20.0
7	Kansas City Chiefs		Cincinnati Bengals	45	10	10.9	-1.9	15.9	35	19.1
9	Tennessee Titans	@	Dallas Cowboys	28	14	-1.1	0.7	-4.8	14	18.8
8	Carolina Panthers		Baltimore Ravens	36	21	0.4	7.2	-3.8	15	18.8
7	Indianapolis Colts		Buffalo Bills	37	5	1.7	-9.1	13.8	32	18.2
5	Arizona Cardinals	@	San Francisco 49ers	28	18	-9.9	-5.1	-7.8	10	17.8
1	Cincinnati Bengals	@	Indianapolis Colts	34	23	-1.9	1.7	-6.6	11	17.6
2	Cincinnati Bengals		Baltimore Ravens	34	23	-1.9	7.2	-6.2	11	17.2
7	Los Angeles Rams	@	San Francisco 49ers	39	10	10.5	-5.1	12.6	29	16.4
4	New England Patriots		Miami Dolphins	38	7	3.8	-7.9	14.8	31	16.2
4	Baltimore Ravens	@	Pittsburgh Steelers	26	14	7.2	8.5	-4.2	12	16.2
2	Cleveland Browns	@	New Orleans Saints	18	21	-2.2	14.0	-19.2	-3	16.2
6	Baltimore Ravens	@	Tennessee Titans	21	0	7.2	-1.1	5.4	21	15.6
7	Minnesota Vikings	@	New York Jets	37	17	0.4	-7.2	4.6	20	15.4
2	Oakland Raiders	@	Denver Broncos	19	20	-11.9	1.4	-16.3	-1	15.3
2	Jacksonville Jaguars		New England Patriots	31	20	-3.4	3.8	-4.3	11	15.3
3	New York Giants	@	Houston Texans	27	22	-4.8	2.0	-9.9	5	14.9
6	New York Jets		Indianapolis Colts	42	34	-7.2	1.7	-5.9	8	13.9
6	Miami Dolphins		Chicago Bears	31	28	-7.9	5.9	-10.8	3	13.8
10	Washington Redskins	@	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	16	3	-0.8	-4.1	0.3	13	12.7
2	Indianapolis Colts	@	Washington Redskins	21	9	1.7	-0.8	-0.5	12	12.5
4	Jacksonville Jaguars		New York Jets	31	12	-3.4	-7.2	6.8	19	12.2
7	New England Patriots	@	Chicago Bears	38	31	3.8	5.9	-5.0	7	12.0
1	Washington Redskins	@	Arizona Cardinals	24	6	-0.8	-9.9	6.1	18	11.9
3	Washington Redskins		Green Bay Packers	31	17	-0.8	0.1	2.1	14	11.9
10	Arizona Cardinals	@	Kansas City Chiefs	14	26	-9.9	10.9	-23.8	-12	11.8
2	Miami Dolphins	@	New York Jets	20	12	-7.9	-7.2	-3.7	8	11.7
8	Green Bay Packers	@	Los Angeles Rams	27	29	0.1	10.5	-13.4	-2	11.4
5	Pittsburgh Steelers		Atlanta Falcons	41	17	8.5	-1.2	12.7	24	11.3
9	Los Angeles Chargers	@	Seattle Seahawks	25	17	4.1	4.0	-2.8	8	10.8
1	Miami Dolphins		Tennessee Titans	27	20	-7.9	-1.1	-3.8	7	10.8
3	Arizona Cardinals		Chicago Bears	14	16	-9.9	5.9	-12.7	-2	10.7
7	Detroit Lions	@	Miami Dolphins	32	21	-4.6	-7.9	0.3	11	10.7
2	Los Angeles Rams		Arizona Cardinals	34	0	10.5	-9.9	23.4	34	10.6
7	Houston Texans	@	Jacksonville Jaguars	20	7	2.0	-3.4	2.5	13	10.5
4	San Francisco 49ers	@	Los Angeles Chargers	27	29	-5.1	4.1	-12.2	-2	10.2
10	Cleveland Browns		Atlanta Falcons	28	16	-2.2	-1.2	2.0	12	10.0
4	Green Bay Packers		Buffalo Bills	22	0	0.1	-9.1	12.2	22	9.8
4	Oakland Raiders		Cleveland Browns	45	42	-11.9	-2.2	-6.7	3	9.7
5	Detroit Lions		Green Bay Packers	31	23	-4.6	0.1	-1.7	8	9.7
5	Cleveland Browns		Baltimore Ravens	12	9	-2.2	7.2	-6.5	3	9.5
11	Cincinnati Bengals	@	Baltimore Ravens	21	24	-1.9	7.2	-12.2	-3	9.2
8	New England Patriots	@	Buffalo Bills	25	6	3.8	-9.1	9.9	19	9.1
5	New England Patriots		Indianapolis Colts	38	24	3.8	1.7	5.2	14	8.8
9	Pittsburgh Steelers	@	Baltimore Ravens	23	16	8.5	7.2	-1.8	7	8.8
8	Seattle Seahawks	@	Detroit Lions	28	14	4.0	-4.6	5.6	14	8.4
6	Seattle Seahawks	N	Oakland Raiders	27	3	4.0	-11.9	15.9	24	8.1
3	San Francisco 49ers	@	Kansas City Chiefs	27	38	-5.1	10.9	-19.0	-11	8.0
10	Green Bay Packers		Miami Dolphins	31	12	0.1	-7.9	11.0	19	8.0
4	Arizona Cardinals		Seattle Seahawks	17	20	-9.9	4.0	-10.9	-3	7.9
1	Cleveland Browns		Pittsburgh Steelers	21	21	-2.2	8.5	-7.7	0	7.7
9	New England Patriots		Green Bay Packers	31	17	3.8	0.1	6.7	14	7.3
6	Buffalo Bills	@	Houston Texans	13	20	-9.1	2.0	-14.1	-7	7.1
6	New England Patriots		Kansas City Chiefs	43	40	3.8	10.9	-4.1	3	7.1
11	Oakland Raiders	@	Arizona Cardinals	23	21	-11.9	-9.9	-5.0	2	7.0
9	Minnesota Vikings		Detroit Lions	24	9	0.4	-4.6	8.0	15	7.0
11	Denver Broncos	@	Los Angeles Chargers	23	22	1.4	4.1	-5.8	1	6.8
10	New York Giants	@	San Francisco 49ers	27	23	-4.8	-5.1	-2.7	4	6.7
10	Dallas Cowboys	@	Philadelphia Eagles	27	20	0.7	-2.6	0.3	7	6.7
1	Jacksonville Jaguars	@	New York Giants	20	15	-3.4	-4.8	-1.6	5	6.6
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers		Pittsburgh Steelers	27	30	-4.1	8.5	-9.6	-3	6.6
9	Carolina Panthers		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	42	28	0.4	-4.1	7.5	14	6.5
4	Detroit Lions	@	Dallas Cowboys	24	26	-4.6	0.7	-8.3	-2	6.3
5	New York Giants	@	Carolina Panthers	31	33	-4.8	0.4	-8.2	-2	6.2
5	New Orleans Saints		Washington Redskins	43	19	14.0	-0.8	17.8	24	6.2
1	Kansas City Chiefs	@	Los Angeles Chargers	38	28	10.9	4.1	3.8	10	6.2
4	Minnesota Vikings	@	Los Angeles Rams	31	38	0.4	10.5	-13.1	-7	6.1
3	Atlanta Falcons		New Orleans Saints	37	43	-1.2	14.0	-12.1	-6	6.1
8	Houston Texans		Miami Dolphins	42	23	2.0	-7.9	12.9	19	6.1
8	Washington Redskins	@	New York Giants	20	13	-0.8	-4.8	1.0	7	6.0
5	Buffalo Bills		Tennessee Titans	13	12	-9.1	-1.1	-5.0	1	6.0
9	Kansas City Chiefs	@	Cleveland Browns	37	21	10.9	-2.2	10.1	16	5.9
4	Houston Texans	@	Indianapolis Colts	37	34	2.0	1.7	-2.6	3	5.6
2	Atlanta Falcons		Carolina Panthers	31	24	-1.2	0.4	1.4	7	5.6
8	Denver Broncos	@	Kansas City Chiefs	23	30	1.4	10.9	-12.5	-7	5.5
2	Kansas City Chiefs	@	Pittsburgh Steelers	42	37	10.9	8.5	-0.5	5	5.5
3	Philadelphia Eagles		Indianapolis Colts	20	16	-2.6	1.7	-1.3	4	5.3
1	Carolina Panthers		Dallas Cowboys	16	8	0.4	0.7	2.7	8	5.3
8	Philadelphia Eagles	N	Jacksonville Jaguars	24	18	-2.6	-3.4	0.8	6	5.2
6	San Francisco 49ers	@	Green Bay Packers	30	33	-5.1	0.1	-8.2	-3	5.2
10	Jacksonville Jaguars	@	Indianapolis Colts	26	29	-3.4	1.7	-8.1	-3	5.1
11	Jacksonville Jaguars		Pittsburgh Steelers	16	20	-3.4	8.5	-8.9	-4	4.9
8	Arizona Cardinals		San Francisco 49ers	18	15	-9.9	-5.1	-1.8	3	4.8
4	Cincinnati Bengals	@	Atlanta Falcons	37	36	-1.9	-1.2	-3.7	1	4.7
9	Miami Dolphins		New York Jets	13	6	-7.9	-7.2	2.3	7	4.7
3	Seattle Seahawks		Dallas Cowboys	24	13	4.0	0.7	6.3	11	4.7
3	Carolina Panthers		Cincinnati Bengals	31	21	0.4	-1.9	5.4	10	4.6
10	Seattle Seahawks	@	Los Angeles Rams	31	36	4.0	10.5	-9.6	-5	4.6
1	Philadelphia Eagles		Atlanta Falcons	18	12	-2.6	-1.2	1.5	6	4.5
2	Tampa Bay Buccaneers		Philadelphia Eagles	27	21	-4.1	-2.6	1.6	6	4.4
9	Houston Texans	@	Denver Broncos	19	17	2.0	1.4	-2.3	2	4.3
7	Tennessee Titans	N	Los Angeles Chargers	19	20	-1.1	4.1	-5.3	-1	4.3
6	Washington Redskins		Carolina Panthers	23	17	-0.8	0.4	1.8	6	4.2
3	Baltimore Ravens		Denver Broncos	27	14	7.2	1.4	8.9	13	4.1
11	Dallas Cowboys	@	Atlanta Falcons	22	19	0.7	-1.2	-1.1	3	4.1
3	New York Jets	@	Cleveland Browns	17	21	-7.2	-2.2	-8.0	-4	4.0
7	Carolina Panthers	@	Philadelphia Eagles	21	17	0.4	-2.6	0.1	4	3.9
11	Green Bay Packers	@	Seattle Seahawks	24	27	0.1	4.0	-6.9	-3	3.9
1	Green Bay Packers		Chicago Bears	24	23	0.1	5.9	-2.7	1	3.7
3	Tennessee Titans	@	Jacksonville Jaguars	9	6	-1.1	-3.4	-0.7	3	3.7
7	New York Giants	@	Atlanta Falcons	20	23	-4.8	-1.2	-6.6	-3	3.6
9	New Orleans Saints		Los Angeles Rams	45	35	14.0	10.5	6.4	10	3.6
11	Minnesota Vikings	@	Chicago Bears	20	25	0.4	5.9	-8.5	-5	3.5
8	Indianapolis Colts	@	Oakland Raiders	42	28	1.7	-11.9	10.6	14	3.4
6	Arizona Cardinals	@	Minnesota Vikings	17	27	-9.9	0.4	-13.3	-10	3.3
2	Tennessee Titans		Houston Texans	20	17	-1.1	2.0	-0.2	3	3.2
6	Denver Broncos		Los Angeles Rams	20	23	1.4	10.5	-6.2	-3	3.2
5	Oakland Raiders	@	Los Angeles Chargers	10	26	-11.9	4.1	-19.1	-16	3.1
11	Detroit Lions		Carolina Panthers	20	19	-4.6	0.4	-2.0	1	3.0
2	Minnesota Vikings	@	Green Bay Packers	29	29	0.4	0.1	-2.7	0	2.7
7	Baltimore Ravens		New Orleans Saints	23	24	7.2	14.0	-3.7	-1	2.7
1	Denver Broncos		Seattle Seahawks	27	24	1.4	4.0	0.4	3	2.6
3	Los Angeles Rams		Los Angeles Chargers	35	23	10.5	4.1	9.4	12	2.6
4	Denver Broncos		Kansas City Chiefs	23	27	1.4	10.9	-6.5	-4	2.5
1	New England Patriots		Houston Texans	27	20	3.8	2.0	4.8	7	2.2
8	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	@	Cincinnati Bengals	34	37	-4.1	-1.9	-5.2	-3	2.2
11	Houston Texans	@	Washington Redskins	23	21	2.0	-0.8	-0.2	2	2.2
2	Chicago Bears		Seattle Seahawks	24	17	5.9	4.0	4.9	7	2.1
8	New York Jets	@	Chicago Bears	10	24	-7.2	5.9	-16.0	-14	2.0
5	Minnesota Vikings	@	Philadelphia Eagles	23	21	0.4	-2.6	0.0	2	2.0
7	Tampa Bay Buccaneers		Cleveland Browns	26	23	-4.1	-2.2	1.1	3	1.9
5	Seattle Seahawks		Los Angeles Rams	31	33	4.0	10.5	-3.6	-2	1.6
4	Philadelphia Eagles	@	Tennessee Titans	23	26	-2.6	-1.1	-4.5	-3	1.5
2	New York Giants	@	Dallas Cowboys	13	20	-4.8	0.7	-8.5	-7	1.5
7	Washington Redskins		Dallas Cowboys	20	17	-0.8	0.7	1.5	3	1.5
10	Detroit Lions	@	Chicago Bears	22	34	-4.6	5.9	-13.4	-12	1.4
5	Dallas Cowboys	@	Houston Texans	16	19	0.7	2.0	-4.4	-3	1.4
5	Jacksonville Jaguars	@	Kansas City Chiefs	14	30	-3.4	10.9	-17.3	-16	1.3
8	Pittsburgh Steelers		Cleveland Browns	33	18	8.5	-2.2	13.7	15	1.3
5	Cincinnati Bengals		Miami Dolphins	27	17	-1.9	-7.9	9.0	10	1.0
3	Miami Dolphins		Oakland Raiders	28	20	-7.9	-11.9	7.0	8	1.0
10	Los Angeles Chargers	@	Oakland Raiders	20	6	4.1	-11.9	13.1	14	0.9
6	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	@	Atlanta Falcons	29	34	-4.1	-1.2	-5.9	-5	0.9
4	New York Giants		New Orleans Saints	18	33	-4.8	14.0	-15.8	-15	0.8
2	Los Angeles Chargers	@	Buffalo Bills	31	20	4.1	-9.1	10.2	11	0.8
11	New York Giants		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	38	35	-4.8	-4.1	2.3	3	0.7
8	Minnesota Vikings		New Orleans Saints	20	30	0.4	14.0	-10.6	-10	0.6
1	Los Angeles Rams	@	Oakland Raiders	33	13	10.5	-11.9	19.5	20	0.5
2	San Francisco 49ers		Detroit Lions	30	27	-5.1	-4.6	2.5	3	0.5
1	San Francisco 49ers	@	Minnesota Vikings	16	24	-5.1	0.4	-8.5	-8	0.5
6	Cincinnati Bengals		Pittsburgh Steelers	21	28	-1.9	8.5	-7.4	-7	0.4
11	Los Angeles Rams		Kansas City Chiefs	54	51	10.5	10.9	2.6	3	0.4
11	Kansas City Chiefs	@	Los Angeles Rams	51	54	10.9	10.5	-2.6	-3	-0.4
6	Pittsburgh Steelers	@	Cincinnati Bengals	28	21	8.5	-1.9	7.4	7	-0.4
1	Minnesota Vikings		San Francisco 49ers	24	16	0.4	-5.1	8.5	8	-0.5
2	Detroit Lions	@	San Francisco 49ers	27	30	-4.6	-5.1	-2.5	-3	-0.5
1	Oakland Raiders		Los Angeles Rams	13	33	-11.9	10.5	-19.5	-20	-0.5
8	New Orleans Saints	@	Minnesota Vikings	30	20	14.0	0.4	10.6	10	-0.6
11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	@	New York Giants	35	38	-4.1	-4.8	-2.3	-3	-0.7
2	Buffalo Bills		Los Angeles Chargers	20	31	-9.1	4.1	-10.2	-11	-0.8
4	New Orleans Saints	@	New York Giants	33	18	14.0	-4.8	15.8	15	-0.8
6	Atlanta Falcons		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	34	29	-1.2	-4.1	5.9	5	-0.9
10	Oakland Raiders		Los Angeles Chargers	6	20	-11.9	4.1	-13.1	-14	-0.9
3	Oakland Raiders	@	Miami Dolphins	20	28	-11.9	-7.9	-7.0	-8	-1.0
5	Miami Dolphins	@	Cincinnati Bengals	17	27	-7.9	-1.9	-9.0	-10	-1.0
8	Cleveland Browns	@	Pittsburgh Steelers	18	33	-2.2	8.5	-13.7	-15	-1.3
5	Kansas City Chiefs		Jacksonville Jaguars	30	14	10.9	-3.4	17.3	16	-1.3
5	Houston Texans		Dallas Cowboys	19	16	2.0	0.7	4.4	3	-1.4
10	Chicago Bears		Detroit Lions	34	22	5.9	-4.6	13.4	12	-1.4
7	Dallas Cowboys	@	Washington Redskins	17	20	0.7	-0.8	-1.5	-3	-1.5
2	Dallas Cowboys		New York Giants	20	13	0.7	-4.8	8.5	7	-1.5
4	Tennessee Titans		Philadelphia Eagles	26	23	-1.1	-2.6	4.5	3	-1.5
5	Los Angeles Rams	@	Seattle Seahawks	33	31	10.5	4.0	3.6	2	-1.6
7	Cleveland Browns	@	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	23	26	-2.2	-4.1	-1.1	-3	-1.9
5	Philadelphia Eagles		Minnesota Vikings	21	23	-2.6	0.4	0.0	-2	-2.0
8	Chicago Bears		New York Jets	24	10	5.9	-7.2	16.0	14	-2.0
2	Seattle Seahawks	@	Chicago Bears	17	24	4.0	5.9	-4.9	-7	-2.1
11	Washington Redskins		Houston Texans	21	23	-0.8	2.0	0.2	-2	-2.2
8	Cincinnati Bengals		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	37	34	-1.9	-4.1	5.2	3	-2.2
1	Houston Texans	@	New England Patriots	20	27	2.0	3.8	-4.8	-7	-2.2
4	Kansas City Chiefs	@	Denver Broncos	27	23	10.9	1.4	6.5	4	-2.5
3	Los Angeles Chargers	@	Los Angeles Rams	23	35	4.1	10.5	-9.4	-12	-2.6
1	Seattle Seahawks	@	Denver Broncos	24	27	4.0	1.4	-0.4	-3	-2.6
7	New Orleans Saints	@	Baltimore Ravens	24	23	14.0	7.2	3.7	1	-2.7
2	Green Bay Packers		Minnesota Vikings	29	29	0.1	0.4	2.7	0	-2.7
11	Carolina Panthers	@	Detroit Lions	19	20	0.4	-4.6	2.0	-1	-3.0
5	Los Angeles Chargers		Oakland Raiders	26	10	4.1	-11.9	19.1	16	-3.1
6	Los Angeles Rams	@	Denver Broncos	23	20	10.5	1.4	6.2	3	-3.2
2	Houston Texans	@	Tennessee Titans	17	20	2.0	-1.1	0.2	-3	-3.2
6	Minnesota Vikings		Arizona Cardinals	27	17	0.4	-9.9	13.3	10	-3.3
8	Oakland Raiders		Indianapolis Colts	28	42	-11.9	1.7	-10.6	-14	-3.4
11	Chicago Bears		Minnesota Vikings	25	20	5.9	0.4	8.5	5	-3.5
9	Los Angeles Rams	@	New Orleans Saints	35	45	10.5	14.0	-6.4	-10	-3.6
7	Atlanta Falcons		New York Giants	23	20	-1.2	-4.8	6.6	3	-3.6
3	Jacksonville Jaguars		Tennessee Titans	6	9	-3.4	-1.1	0.7	-3	-3.7
1	Chicago Bears	@	Green Bay Packers	23	24	5.9	0.1	2.7	-1	-3.7
11	Seattle Seahawks		Green Bay Packers	27	24	4.0	0.1	6.9	3	-3.9
7	Philadelphia Eagles		Carolina Panthers	17	21	-2.6	0.4	-0.1	-4	-3.9
3	Cleveland Browns		New York Jets	21	17	-2.2	-7.2	8.0	4	-4.0
11	Atlanta Falcons		Dallas Cowboys	19	22	-1.2	0.7	1.1	-3	-4.1
3	Denver Broncos	@	Baltimore Ravens	14	27	1.4	7.2	-8.9	-13	-4.1
6	Carolina Panthers	@	Washington Redskins	17	23	0.4	-0.8	-1.8	-6	-4.2
7	Los Angeles Chargers	N	Tennessee Titans	20	19	4.1	-1.1	5.3	1	-4.3
9	Denver Broncos		Houston Texans	17	19	1.4	2.0	2.3	-2	-4.3
2	Philadelphia Eagles	@	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	21	27	-2.6	-4.1	-1.6	-6	-4.4
1	Atlanta Falcons	@	Philadelphia Eagles	12	18	-1.2	-2.6	-1.5	-6	-4.5
10	Los Angeles Rams		Seattle Seahawks	36	31	10.5	4.0	9.6	5	-4.6
3	Cincinnati Bengals	@	Carolina Panthers	21	31	-1.9	0.4	-5.4	-10	-4.6
3	Dallas Cowboys	@	Seattle Seahawks	13	24	0.7	4.0	-6.3	-11	-4.7
9	New York Jets	@	Miami Dolphins	6	13	-7.2	-7.9	-2.3	-7	-4.7
4	Atlanta Falcons		Cincinnati Bengals	36	37	-1.2	-1.9	3.7	-1	-4.7
8	San Francisco 49ers	@	Arizona Cardinals	15	18	-5.1	-9.9	1.8	-3	-4.8
11	Pittsburgh Steelers	@	Jacksonville Jaguars	20	16	8.5	-3.4	8.9	4	-4.9
10	Indianapolis Colts		Jacksonville Jaguars	29	26	1.7	-3.4	8.1	3	-5.1
6	Green Bay Packers		San Francisco 49ers	33	30	0.1	-5.1	8.2	3	-5.2
8	Jacksonville Jaguars	N	Philadelphia Eagles	18	24	-3.4	-2.6	-0.8	-6	-5.2
1	Dallas Cowboys	@	Carolina Panthers	8	16	0.7	0.4	-2.7	-8	-5.3
3	Indianapolis Colts	@	Philadelphia Eagles	16	20	1.7	-2.6	1.3	-4	-5.3
2	Pittsburgh Steelers		Kansas City Chiefs	37	42	8.5	10.9	0.5	-5	-5.5
8	Kansas City Chiefs		Denver Broncos	30	23	10.9	1.4	12.5	7	-5.5
2	Carolina Panthers	@	Atlanta Falcons	24	31	0.4	-1.2	-1.4	-7	-5.6
4	Indianapolis Colts		Houston Texans	34	37	1.7	2.0	2.6	-3	-5.6
9	Cleveland Browns		Kansas City Chiefs	21	37	-2.2	10.9	-10.1	-16	-5.9
5	Tennessee Titans	@	Buffalo Bills	12	13	-1.1	-9.1	5.0	-1	-6.0
8	New York Giants		Washington Redskins	13	20	-4.8	-0.8	-1.0	-7	-6.0
8	Miami Dolphins	@	Houston Texans	23	42	-7.9	2.0	-12.9	-19	-6.1
3	New Orleans Saints	@	Atlanta Falcons	43	37	14.0	-1.2	12.1	6	-6.1
4	Los Angeles Rams		Minnesota Vikings	38	31	10.5	0.4	13.1	7	-6.1
1	Los Angeles Chargers		Kansas City Chiefs	28	38	4.1	10.9	-3.8	-10	-6.2
5	Washington Redskins	@	New Orleans Saints	19	43	-0.8	14.0	-17.8	-24	-6.2
5	Carolina Panthers		New York Giants	33	31	0.4	-4.8	8.2	2	-6.2
4	Dallas Cowboys		Detroit Lions	26	24	0.7	-4.6	8.3	2	-6.3
9	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	@	Carolina Panthers	28	42	-4.1	0.4	-7.5	-14	-6.5
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	@	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	30	27	8.5	-4.1	9.6	3	-6.6
1	New York Giants		Jacksonville Jaguars	15	20	-4.8	-3.4	1.6	-5	-6.6
10	Philadelphia Eagles		Dallas Cowboys	20	27	-2.6	0.7	-0.3	-7	-6.7
10	San Francisco 49ers		New York Giants	23	27	-5.1	-4.8	2.7	-4	-6.7
11	Los Angeles Chargers		Denver Broncos	22	23	4.1	1.4	5.8	-1	-6.8
9	Detroit Lions	@	Minnesota Vikings	9	24	-4.6	0.4	-8.0	-15	-7.0
11	Arizona Cardinals		Oakland Raiders	21	23	-9.9	-11.9	5.0	-2	-7.0
6	Kansas City Chiefs	@	New England Patriots	40	43	10.9	3.8	4.1	-3	-7.1
6	Houston Texans		Buffalo Bills	20	13	2.0	-9.1	14.1	7	-7.1
9	Green Bay Packers	@	New England Patriots	17	31	0.1	3.8	-6.7	-14	-7.3
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	@	Cleveland Browns	21	21	8.5	-2.2	7.7	0	-7.7
4	Seattle Seahawks	@	Arizona Cardinals	20	17	4.0	-9.9	10.9	3	-7.9
10	Miami Dolphins	@	Green Bay Packers	12	31	-7.9	0.1	-11.0	-19	-8.0
3	Kansas City Chiefs		San Francisco 49ers	38	27	10.9	-5.1	19.0	11	-8.0
6	Oakland Raiders	N	Seattle Seahawks	3	27	-11.9	4.0	-15.9	-24	-8.1
8	Detroit Lions		Seattle Seahawks	14	28	-4.6	4.0	-5.6	-14	-8.4
9	Baltimore Ravens		Pittsburgh Steelers	16	23	7.2	8.5	1.8	-7	-8.8
5	Indianapolis Colts	@	New England Patriots	24	38	1.7	3.8	-5.2	-14	-8.8
8	Buffalo Bills		New England Patriots	6	25	-9.1	3.8	-9.9	-19	-9.1
11	Baltimore Ravens		Cincinnati Bengals	24	21	7.2	-1.9	12.2	3	-9.2
5	Baltimore Ravens	@	Cleveland Browns	9	12	7.2	-2.2	6.5	-3	-9.5
5	Green Bay Packers	@	Detroit Lions	23	31	0.1	-4.6	1.7	-8	-9.7
4	Cleveland Browns	@	Oakland Raiders	42	45	-2.2	-11.9	6.7	-3	-9.7
4	Buffalo Bills	@	Green Bay Packers	0	22	-9.1	0.1	-12.2	-22	-9.8
10	Atlanta Falcons	@	Cleveland Browns	16	28	-1.2	-2.2	-2.0	-12	-10.0
4	Los Angeles Chargers		San Francisco 49ers	29	27	4.1	-5.1	12.2	2	-10.2
7	Jacksonville Jaguars		Houston Texans	7	20	-3.4	2.0	-2.5	-13	-10.5
2	Arizona Cardinals	@	Los Angeles Rams	0	34	-9.9	10.5	-23.4	-34	-10.6
7	Miami Dolphins		Detroit Lions	21	32	-7.9	-4.6	-0.3	-11	-10.7
3	Chicago Bears	@	Arizona Cardinals	16	14	5.9	-9.9	12.7	2	-10.7
1	Tennessee Titans	@	Miami Dolphins	20	27	-1.1	-7.9	3.8	-7	-10.8
9	Seattle Seahawks		Los Angeles Chargers	17	25	4.0	4.1	2.8	-8	-10.8
5	Atlanta Falcons	@	Pittsburgh Steelers	17	41	-1.2	8.5	-12.7	-24	-11.3
8	Los Angeles Rams		Green Bay Packers	29	27	10.5	0.1	13.4	2	-11.4
2	New York Jets		Miami Dolphins	12	20	-7.2	-7.9	3.7	-8	-11.7
10	Kansas City Chiefs		Arizona Cardinals	26	14	10.9	-9.9	23.8	12	-11.8
3	Green Bay Packers	@	Washington Redskins	17	31	0.1	-0.8	-2.1	-14	-11.9
1	Arizona Cardinals		Washington Redskins	6	24	-9.9	-0.8	-6.1	-18	-11.9
7	Chicago Bears		New England Patriots	31	38	5.9	3.8	5.0	-7	-12.0
4	New York Jets	@	Jacksonville Jaguars	12	31	-7.2	-3.4	-6.8	-19	-12.2
2	Washington Redskins		Indianapolis Colts	9	21	-0.8	1.7	0.5	-12	-12.5
10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers		Washington Redskins	3	16	-4.1	-0.8	-0.3	-13	-12.7
6	Chicago Bears	@	Miami Dolphins	28	31	5.9	-7.9	10.8	-3	-13.8
6	Indianapolis Colts	@	New York Jets	34	42	1.7	-7.2	5.9	-8	-13.9
3	Houston Texans		New York Giants	22	27	2.0	-4.8	9.9	-5	-14.9
2	New England Patriots	@	Jacksonville Jaguars	20	31	3.8	-3.4	4.3	-11	-15.3
2	Denver Broncos		Oakland Raiders	20	19	1.4	-11.9	16.3	1	-15.3
7	New York Jets		Minnesota Vikings	17	37	-7.2	0.4	-4.6	-20	-15.4
6	Tennessee Titans		Baltimore Ravens	0	21	-1.1	7.2	-5.4	-21	-15.6
2	New Orleans Saints		Cleveland Browns	21	18	14.0	-2.2	19.2	3	-16.2
4	Pittsburgh Steelers		Baltimore Ravens	14	26	8.5	7.2	4.2	-12	-16.2
4	Miami Dolphins	@	New England Patriots	7	38	-7.9	3.8	-14.8	-31	-16.2
7	San Francisco 49ers		Los Angeles Rams	10	39	-5.1	10.5	-12.6	-29	-16.4
2	Baltimore Ravens	@	Cincinnati Bengals	23	34	7.2	-1.9	6.2	-11	-17.2
1	Indianapolis Colts		Cincinnati Bengals	23	34	1.7	-1.9	6.6	-11	-17.6
5	San Francisco 49ers		Arizona Cardinals	18	28	-5.1	-9.9	7.8	-10	-17.8
7	Buffalo Bills	@	Indianapolis Colts	5	37	-9.1	1.7	-13.8	-32	-18.2
8	Baltimore Ravens	@	Carolina Panthers	21	36	7.2	0.4	3.8	-15	-18.8
9	Dallas Cowboys		Tennessee Titans	14	28	0.7	-1.1	4.8	-14	-18.8
7	Cincinnati Bengals	@	Kansas City Chiefs	10	45	-1.9	10.9	-15.9	-35	-19.1
10	Carolina Panthers	@	Pittsburgh Steelers	21	52	0.4	8.5	-11.0	-31	-20.0
9	Buffalo Bills		Chicago Bears	9	41	-9.1	5.9	-12.0	-32	-20.0
6	Cleveland Browns		Los Angeles Chargers	14	38	-2.2	4.1	-3.4	-24	-20.6
9	Oakland Raiders	@	San Francisco 49ers	3	34	-11.9	-5.1	-9.8	-31	-21.2
11	Philadelphia Eagles	@	New Orleans Saints	7	48	-2.6	14.0	-19.6	-41	-21.4
3	New England Patriots	@	Detroit Lions	10	26	3.8	-4.6	5.4	-16	-21.4
6	New York Giants		Philadelphia Eagles	13	34	-4.8	-2.6	0.8	-21	-21.8
11	Tennessee Titans	@	Indianapolis Colts	10	38	-1.1	1.7	-5.8	-28	-22.2
5	Denver Broncos	@	New York Jets	16	34	1.4	-7.2	5.6	-18	-23.6
10	Cincinnati Bengals		New Orleans Saints	14	51	-1.9	14.0	-12.9	-37	-24.1
1	Buffalo Bills	@	Baltimore Ravens	3	47	-9.1	7.2	-19.3	-44	-24.7
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	@	Chicago Bears	10	48	-4.1	5.9	-12.9	-38	-25.1
6	Jacksonville Jaguars	@	Dallas Cowboys	7	40	-3.4	0.7	-7.1	-33	-25.9
10	New England Patriots	@	Tennessee Titans	10	34	3.8	-1.1	2.0	-24	-26.0
7	Arizona Cardinals		Denver Broncos	10	45	-9.9	1.4	-8.3	-35	-26.7
9	Washington Redskins		Atlanta Falcons	14	38	-0.8	-1.2	3.4	-24	-27.4
1	New Orleans Saints		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	40	48	14.0	-4.1	21.0	-8	-29.0
3	Minnesota Vikings		Buffalo Bills	6	27	0.4	-9.1	12.5	-21	-33.5
10	New York Jets		Buffalo Bills	10	41	-7.2	-9.1	4.9	-31	-35.9
1	Detroit Lions		New York Jets	17	48	-4.6	-7.2	5.6	-31	-36.6

The most nonconforming games of week 11: the Colts beating the Colts by 28 points, not 6 points, and the Saints beating the Eagles by 41 points, not 20 points.

And for reference, here is each team’s SRS rating this year.

Rk	Team	G	MOV	SOS	SRS
1	New Orleans Saints	10	13.9	0.1	14.0
2	Kansas City Chiefs	11	10.3	0.7	10.9
3	Los Angeles Rams	11	9.5	1.1	10.5
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	10	7.4	1.1	8.5
5	Baltimore Ravens	10	5.6	1.6	7.2
6	Chicago Bears	10	9.3	-3.4	5.9
7	Los Angeles Chargers	10	5.6	-1.5	4.1
8	Seattle Seahawks	10	3.3	0.7	4.0
9	New England Patriots	10	4.4	-0.6	3.8
10	Houston Texans	10	4.0	-2.0	2.0
11	Indianapolis Colts	10	4.9	-3.2	1.7
12	Denver Broncos	10	-0.7	2.1	1.4
13	Dallas Cowboys	10	1.9	-1.2	0.7
14	Carolina Panthers	10	0.8	-0.4	0.4
15	Minnesota Vikings	10	1.2	-0.8	0.4
16	Green Bay Packers	10	0.4	-0.3	0.1
17	Washington Redskins	10	-0.7	-0.1	-0.8
18	Tennessee Titans	10	-0.8	-0.3	-1.1
19	Atlanta Falcons	10	-1.9	0.7	-1.2
20	Cincinnati Bengals	10	-5.6	3.7	-1.9
21	Cleveland Browns	10	-5.1	2.9	-2.2
22	Philadelphia Eagles	10	-2.9	0.3	-2.6
23	Jacksonville Jaguars	10	-4.6	1.2	-3.4
24	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	10	-5.6	1.5	-4.1
25	Detroit Lions	10	-4.1	-0.5	-4.6
26	New York Giants	10	-4.8	0.0	-4.8
27	San Francisco 49ers	10	-3.6	-1.5	-5.1
28	New York Jets	10	-4.6	-2.6	-7.2
29	Miami Dolphins	10	-5.7	-2.2	-7.9
30	Buffalo Bills	10	-10.8	1.7	-9.1
31	Arizona Cardinals	10	-10.9	1.0	-9.9
32	Oakland Raiders	10	-12.0	0.1	-11.9

What stands out to you? Please leave your thoughts in the comments.

References[+]

References
↑1	Note that these numbers will differ slightly from what PFR posts, because I count the London games as neutral site games, while PFR counts them as true home/road games.

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