The Chargers Had The Worst Fumble Luck In 2019

by Chase Stuart on March 8, 2020

in Statistics

Every season, I like to look at each team’s fumble recovery data. The evidence suggests that when the ball is on the ground, teams aren’t better or worse at recovering those fumbles; in other words, the recovery is driven more by randomness than skill.

Let’s begin with looking at fumbles from the perspective of the offensive team. The New Orleans Saints had the fewest fumbles in the league last season, at just 9. Even more impressive, the Saints lost just two fumbles all year! Of course, that luck didn’t hold up in the postseason: New Orleans lost a critical fumble in the team’s opening playoff game, contributing to the surprise loss to the Vikings.

On average, the fumbling team recovered (or the ball went out of bounds, so the fumbling team retained possession) 53.5% of all fumbles in 2019. No team was “luckier” at recovering their own fumbles than the Saints, but the Broncos actually gained the biggest advantage due to having fumbled much more often. Denver fumbled 21 times last season; that means we would “expect” the Broncos to lose 9.75 of those fumbles. In reality, the team lost just 6 fumbles, meaning Denver recovered 3.75 more fumbles than we would have been expected. Non-QBs for the Broncos fumbled 10 times, but they lost just 2 of those fumbles.

The least fortunate team was the Colts. In 2019, Indianapolis fumbled 18 times, and lost 11 of them! Jacoby Brissett himself lost 5 of 7 fumbles. The table below shows the full fumble data for each offense in 2019:

Rk	Offense	Off Fumbles	Off Fum Lost	Off FR%	FR ovr Avg
1	Denver Broncos	21	6	71.4%	3.75
2	Buffalo Bills	23	7	69.6%	3.68
3	Miami Dolphins	25	8	68%	3.61
4	Pittsburgh Steelers	30	11	63.3%	2.94
5	New Orleans Saints	9	2	77.8%	2.18
6	Washington Redskins	21	8	61.9%	1.75
7	Minnesota Vikings	29	12	58.6%	1.47
8	Baltimore Ravens	18	7	61.1%	1.36
9	Houston Texans	20	8	60%	1.29
10	Los Angeles Rams	17	7	58.8%	0.90
11	Tennessee Titans	21	9	57.1%	0.75
12	Oakland Raiders	21	9	57.1%	0.75
13	New York Jets	21	9	57.1%	0.75
14	New England Patriots	13	6	53.8%	0.04
15	Dallas Cowboys	15	7	53.3%	-0.03
16	Atlanta Falcons	21	10	52.4%	-0.25
17	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	23	11	52.2%	-0.32
18	Cleveland Browns	14	7	50%	-0.50
19	Philadelphia Eagles	31	15	51.6%	-0.60
20	Kansas City Chiefs	20	10	50%	-0.71
21	Chicago Bears	13	7	46.2%	-0.96
22	San Francisco 49ers	19	10	47.4%	-1.17
23	Los Angeles Chargers	21	11	47.6%	-1.25
24	New York Giants	31	16	48.4%	-1.60
25	Arizona Cardinals	9	6	33.3%	-1.82
26	Seattle Seahawks	26	14	46.2%	-1.92
27	Green Bay Packers	15	9	40%	-2.03
28	Jacksonville Jaguars	21	12	42.9%	-2.25
29	Cincinnati Bengals	25	14	44%	-2.39
30	Carolina Panthers	25	14	44%	-2.39
31	Detroit Lions	12	8	33.3%	-2.43
32	Indianapolis Colts	18	11	38.9%	-2.64
	Team	648	301	53.5%	0.00

On defense, the Miami Dolphins were the least lucky team. Miami opponents fumbled 17 times in 2019, and yet the Dolphins defense recovered just three (!) of those fumbles! On the other side of things was the Seattle Seahawks, who already had their share of positive luck, were the luckiest defense at recovering fumbles. Seattle opponents fumbled 25 times, and given the expected rate, we would have expected Seahawks opponents to lose 11.61 of those fumbles. Instead, Seahawks opponents lost 16 of those fumbles, meaning Seattle’s defense recovered an additional 4.39 more fumbles than we would expect. The Dolphins, conversely, recovered 4.90 fewer fumbles than we would expect.

Rk	Defense	Opp Fumbles	Opp Fum Lost	Def FR%	FR ovr Avg
1	Seattle Seahawks	25	16	64%	4.39
2	Minnesota Vikings	22	14	63.6%	3.78
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	27	16	59.3%	3.46
4	New Orleans Saints	15	10	66.7%	3.03
5	Pittsburgh Steelers	33	18	54.5%	2.67
6	Houston Texans	16	10	62.5%	2.57
7	Chicago Bears	15	9	60%	2.03
8	San Francisco 49ers	28	15	53.6%	1.99
9	Baltimore Ravens	22	12	54.5%	1.78
10	Tennessee Titans	16	9	56.3%	1.57
11	Dallas Cowboys	19	10	52.6%	1.17
12	Indianapolis Colts	16	8	50%	0.57
13	Los Angeles Rams	23	11	47.8%	0.32
14	Detroit Lions	23	11	47.8%	0.32
15	Philadelphia Eagles	19	9	47.4%	0.17
16	Cincinnati Bengals	11	5	45.5%	-0.11
17	Denver Broncos	16	7	43.8%	-0.43
18	Carolina Panthers	16	7	43.8%	-0.43
19	New York Giants	14	6	42.9%	-0.50
20	Arizona Cardinals	23	10	43.5%	-0.68
21	Jacksonville Jaguars	21	9	42.9%	-0.75
22	Green Bay Packers	19	8	42.1%	-0.83
23	Oakland Raiders	15	6	40%	-0.97
24	New England Patriots	26	11	42.3%	-1.08
25	Washington Redskins	23	9	39.1%	-1.68
26	Cleveland Browns	17	6	35.3%	-1.90
27	Buffalo Bills	24	9	37.5%	-2.15
28	Atlanta Falcons	22	8	36.4%	-2.22
29	Kansas City Chiefs	20	7	35%	-2.29
30	Los Angeles Chargers	16	3	18.8%	-4.43
31	New York Jets	29	9	31%	-4.47
32	Miami Dolphins	17	3	17.6%	-4.90
	Team	648	301	46.5%	0.00

Finally, let’s combine the data. The Pittsburgh Steelers were the “luckiest” team in 2019 when it comes to recovering fumbles. We saw that Pittsburgh recovered 2.94 more of their own fumbles than expected, and the team’s defense recovered 2.67 more fumbles than we would expect. Combined, this means the Steelers recovered 5.61 more fumbles than average, the best rate in the league. The most unlucky team was the Chargers. Los Angeles recovered 5.68 fewer fumbles than we would expect, driven in large part by the defense’s failure to recover fumbles (just 3 of 16).

Rk	Team	Off Fum	Off FumLost	Off FR%	Off FRoAvg	Opp Fum	Opp FumLost	Def FR%	Def FRoAvg	Total FRoAvg
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	30	11	63.3%	2.94	33	18	54.5%	2.67	5.61
2	Minnesota Vikings	29	12	58.6%	1.47	22	14	63.6%	3.78	5.25
3	New Orleans Saints	9	2	77.8%	2.18	15	10	66.7%	3.03	5.21
4	Houston Texans	20	8	60%	1.29	16	10	62.5%	2.57	3.86
5	Denver Broncos	21	6	71.4%	3.75	16	7	43.8%	-0.43	3.32
6	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	23	11	52.2%	-0.32	27	16	59.3%	3.46	3.14
7	Baltimore Ravens	18	7	61.1%	1.36	22	12	54.5%	1.78	3.14
8	Seattle Seahawks	26	14	46.2%	-1.92	25	16	64%	4.39	2.46
9	Tennessee Titans	21	9	57.1%	0.75	16	9	56.3%	1.57	2.32
10	Buffalo Bills	23	7	69.6%	3.68	24	9	37.5%	-2.15	1.54
11	Los Angeles Rams	17	7	58.8%	0.90	23	11	47.8%	0.32	1.21
12	Dallas Cowboys	15	7	53.3%	-0.03	19	10	52.6%	1.17	1.14
13	Chicago Bears	13	7	46.2%	-0.96	15	9	60%	2.03	1.07
14	San Francisco 49ers	19	10	47.4%	-1.17	28	15	53.6%	1.99	0.82
15	Washington Redskins	21	8	61.9%	1.75	23	9	39.1%	-1.68	0.07
		648	301	53.5%	0.00	648	301	46.5%	0.00	0.00
16	Oakland Raiders	21	9	57.1%	0.75	15	6	40%	-0.97	-0.21
17	Philadelphia Eagles	31	15	51.6%	-0.60	19	9	47.4%	0.17	-0.43
18	New England Patriots	13	6	53.8%	0.04	26	11	42.3%	-1.08	-1.04
19	Miami Dolphins	25	8	68%	3.61	17	3	17.6%	-4.90	-1.28
20	Indianapolis Colts	18	11	38.9%	-2.64	16	8	50%	0.57	-2.07
21	New York Giants	31	16	48.4%	-1.60	14	6	42.9%	-0.50	-2.10
22	Detroit Lions	12	8	33.3%	-2.43	23	11	47.8%	0.32	-2.11
23	Cleveland Browns	14	7	50%	-0.50	17	6	35.3%	-1.90	-2.39
24	Atlanta Falcons	21	10	52.4%	-0.25	22	8	36.4%	-2.22	-2.46
25	Cincinnati Bengals	25	14	44%	-2.39	11	5	45.5%	-0.11	-2.50
26	Arizona Cardinals	9	6	33.3%	-1.82	23	10	43.5%	-0.68	-2.50
27	Carolina Panthers	25	14	44%	-2.39	16	7	43.8%	-0.43	-2.82
28	Green Bay Packers	15	9	40%	-2.03	19	8	42.1%	-0.83	-2.86
29	Kansas City Chiefs	20	10	50%	-0.71	20	7	35%	-2.29	-3.00
30	Jacksonville Jaguars	21	12	42.9%	-2.25	21	9	42.9%	-0.75	-3.00
31	New York Jets	21	9	57.1%	0.75	29	9	31%	-4.47	-3.72
32	Los Angeles Chargers	21	11	47.6%	-1.25	16	3	18.8%	-4.43	-5.68

As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments.

Tagged as: Fumbles

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