I have written before about the remarkable close-game success that Adam Gase and the Miami Dolphins had from 2016 to 2018. The disparity is remarkable: Miami went 3-19 in games decided by more than 8 points under Gase, the second-worst record in the NFL in non-close games (only the Browns were worse). But in games decided by 8 or fewer points, Miami went 20-6, the best record in the NFL.
So you have a huge split here: under Gase, the Dolphins were outstanding in close games but awful in non-close games. What does that mean? Was Gase an outstanding coach who could win any game as long as the talent level of the two teams were close? Or was Gase an awful coach who just happened to get really lucky? With a 23-25 record, Gase looks like an average coach — so perhaps he’s somewhere in the middle of these two extremes?
First, a quick visual to show how extreme this performance really was. The graph below shows each team over the last three years, and their winning percentage in close games (X-Axis) and non-close games (Y-Axis). A team that was awful in non-close games but great in close games would be at the bottom right of the chart: as you can see, Miami is all alone there.
And here’s the data in numeric form:
| Team | CG | CG Wins | CG W% | NCG | NCG Wins | NCG W% | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 30 | 14.5 | 0.483 | 18 | 15 | 0.833 | 0.350 |
| Chiefs | 27 | 15 | 0.556 | 21 | 19 | 0.905 | 0.349 |
| Eagles | 26 | 12 | 0.462 | 22 | 17 | 0.773 | 0.311 |
| Ravens | 26 | 11 | 0.423 | 22 | 16 | 0.727 | 0.304 |
| Saints | 24 | 12 | 0.500 | 24 | 19 | 0.792 | 0.292 |
| Jaguars | 23 | 6 | 0.261 | 25 | 12 | 0.480 | 0.219 |
| Chargers | 28 | 13 | 0.464 | 20 | 13 | 0.650 | 0.186 |
| Bengals | 23 | 7.5 | 0.326 | 25 | 12 | 0.480 | 0.154 |
| Patriots | 17 | 12 | 0.706 | 31 | 26 | 0.839 | 0.133 |
| Bears | 25 | 9 | 0.360 | 23 | 11 | 0.478 | 0.118 |
| Vikings | 19 | 10.5 | 0.553 | 29 | 19 | 0.655 | 0.103 |
| Falcons | 26 | 14 | 0.538 | 22 | 14 | 0.636 | 0.098 |
| Steelers | 29 | 19.5 | 0.672 | 19 | 14 | 0.737 | 0.064 |
| Panthers | 27 | 13 | 0.481 | 21 | 11 | 0.524 | 0.042 |
| Broncos | 22 | 9 | 0.409 | 26 | 11 | 0.423 | 0.014 |
| Lions | 26 | 13 | 0.500 | 22 | 11 | 0.500 | 0.000 |
| Colts | 28 | 13 | 0.464 | 20 | 9 | 0.450 | -0.014 |
| Titans | 28 | 16 | 0.571 | 20 | 11 | 0.550 | -0.021 |
| 49ers | 22 | 6 | 0.273 | 26 | 6 | 0.231 | -0.042 |
| Texans | 29 | 15 | 0.517 | 19 | 9 | 0.474 | -0.044 |
| Rams | 23 | 14 | 0.609 | 25 | 14 | 0.560 | -0.049 |
| Buccaneers | 31 | 13 | 0.419 | 17 | 6 | 0.353 | -0.066 |
| Bills | 22 | 11 | 0.500 | 26 | 11 | 0.423 | -0.077 |
| Cowboys | 25 | 18 | 0.720 | 23 | 14 | 0.609 | -0.111 |
| Jets | 25 | 9 | 0.360 | 23 | 5 | 0.217 | -0.143 |
| Giants | 30 | 14 | 0.467 | 18 | 5 | 0.278 | -0.189 |
| Packers | 27 | 15.5 | 0.574 | 21 | 8 | 0.381 | -0.193 |
| Browns | 22 | 6.5 | 0.295 | 26 | 2 | 0.077 | -0.219 |
| Cardinals | 23 | 11.5 | 0.500 | 25 | 7 | 0.280 | -0.220 |
| Redskins | 23 | 13.5 | 0.587 | 25 | 9 | 0.360 | -0.227 |
| Raiders | 24 | 16 | 0.667 | 24 | 6 | 0.250 | -0.417 |
| Dolphins | 26 | 20 | 0.769 | 22 | 3 | 0.136 | -0.633 |
Bill Belichick and the Patriots have a better record in non-close games than close games. Andy Reid and Pete Carroll, two of the best coaches in the NFL, sit atop the list in terms of faring better in non-close games than close games. The rest of the top-5 is also filled with coaches that are generally considered to be among the best in the NFL in Doug Pederson, John Harbaugh, and Sean Payton.
Meanwhile, Gase is at the very bottom of the list, surrounded by the Raiders (who have had two coaches during this run), Jay Gruden, Cardinals (who have had two coaches), and Browns (who have had two coaches).
This doesn’t prove anything, of course, but it does seem to indicate that if Adam Gase is a great coach who was overachieving with a bad roster, he’s pretty unique in that regard.