Sam Bradford

The Sam Bradford Index

by Chase Stuart on May 19, 2017

in Checkdowns

Sneak peak at the average length of a Bradford completion

You may have heard that Sam Bradford set the completion percentage record in 2016 by completing 71.6% of his passes.

What you may not have heard: Bradford also ranked last in the league in passing yards gained per completion, which makes his record-breaking performance a somewhat hollow achievement. Bradford is the fifth quarterback in the Super Bowl era to rank 1st in completion percentage and last in yards per completion, joining David Carr (HOU 2006), Eric Hipple (DET 1986), Joe Montana (SFO 1980) in his first year as a starter, and Sonny Jurgensen (WAS 1969). In general, things didn’t work out well for those quarterbacks: Carr posted a 6-10 record in 2006, while Hipple went 3-7, and Montana went 2-5. Bradford went 7-8 last season, meaning only Jurgensen (7-5-2) posted a winning record of that bunch (and Washington had a negative points differential and faced a very easy schedule that year).

Expand the list to finishing 1st or 2nd in completion percentage and last or 2nd-to-last in yards per completion, and you bring in four more quarterbacks: Chad Pennington (NYJ 2007, 2nd in both), Joe Montana (SFO 1981, 1st in comp%, 2nd-to-last in YPC), Fran Tarkenton (MIN 1977, 1st, 2nd) and Len Dawson (KAN 1972, 2nd in comp%, last in YPC). The results there were mixed: Pennington went 1-7, while Montana went 13-3, Tarkenton went 6-3, and Dawson went 7-5. It is worth pointing out that Montana and Tarkenton both had above-average Y/A ratios that year: in other words, having a high completion percentage is great, but only if it doesn’t come at the expense of your yards per completion average.

How much of a checkdown artist was Bradford last year? He finished 1.95 standard deviations above average in completion percentage last year among qualifying passers, a metric commonly referred to as a Z-score. He also finished 1.82 standard deviations below average in yards per completion. If you take his Z-Score in completion percentage (+1.95), and subtract his Z-Score in yards per completion (-1.82), you get a result of +3.77.

That may not mean much in the abstract, but it ranks as the 3rd most extreme result in the Super Bowl era, behind only Jurgensen 69 and Carr 06. The table below shows the top 200 most extreme checkdown artists — by this metric — since 1966:

Rk	Player	Team	Year	Cmp%	Yd/Cmp	Z-Score (Cmp)	Z-Score (Y/C)	Total
1	Sonny Jurgensen	WAS	1969	62%	11.3	2.78	-1.77	4.55
2	David Carr	HOU	2006	68.3%	9.2	2.01	-2.02	4.03
3	Sam Bradford	MIN	2016	71.6%	9.8	1.95	-1.82	3.77
4	Eric Hipple	DET	1986	63%	10.0	1.72	-2.04	3.76
5	Ken Anderson	CIN	1982	70.6%	11.4	2.76	-0.91	3.67
6	Kelly Holcomb	CLE	2003	63.9%	9.3	1.19	-2.48	3.67
7	Joe Montana	SFO	1980	64.5%	10.2	1.84	-1.78	3.62
8	Joe Montana	SFO	1987	66.8%	11.5	2.45	-1.13	3.59
9	Chad Pennington	NYJ	2007	68.8%	9.9	1.68	-1.86	3.54
10	Fran Tarkenton	MIN	1978	60.3%	10.1	1.46	-1.96	3.43
11	Fran Tarkenton	MIN	1975	64.2%	11.0	2.27	-1.08	3.35
12	Drew Brees	NOR	2010	68.1%	10.3	1.81	-1.48	3.29
13	Steve Young	SFO	1995	66.9%	10.7	1.94	-1.34	3.28
14	Kelly Holcomb	BUF	2005	67.4%	9.7	1.57	-1.63	3.20
15	Steve Young	SFO	1996	67.7%	11.3	2.69	-0.48	3.16
16	Joe Montana	SFO	1981	63.7%	11.5	1.97	-1.19	3.16
17	Matt Ryan	ATL	2013	67.4%	10.3	1.56	-1.58	3.14
18	Virgil Carter	CIN	1971	62.2%	11.8	1.78	-1.24	3.02
19	Steve Bartkowski	ATL	1984	67.3%	11.9	2.16	-0.85	3.01
20	Drew Brees	NOR	2007	67.5%	10.1	1.36	-1.60	2.96
21	Ken Stabler	HOU	1980	64.1%	10.9	1.76	-1.20	2.95
22	Troy Aikman	DAL	1996	63.7%	10.6	1.59	-1.35	2.93
23	Len Dawson	KAN	1972	57.4%	10.5	1.19	-1.74	2.93
24	Fran Tarkenton	MIN	1977	60.1%	11.2	1.71	-1.22	2.92
25	Greg Landry	DET	1977	56.3%	10.1	0.86	-2.04	2.90
26	Shane Matthews	CHI	1999	60.7%	9.9	1.11	-1.79	2.90
27	Joe Montana	SFO	1989	70.2%	13.0	3.20	0.32	2.88
28	Kirk Cousins	WAS	2015	69.8%	11.0	1.93	-0.87	2.80
29	Roman Gabriel	PHI	1974	57.1%	9.7	0.68	-2.11	2.79
30	Rich Gannon	OAK	2001	65.8%	10.6	1.75	-1.02	2.76
31	Brett Favre	GNB	1992	64.1%	10.7	1.23	-1.53	2.76
32	Drew Brees	NOR	2011	71.2%	11.7	2.37	-0.38	2.75
33	Ken Anderson	CIN	1983	66.7%	11.8	1.90	-0.81	2.72
34	Norm Snead	NYG	1972	60.3%	11.8	1.79	-0.93	2.72
35	Steve DeBerg	SFO	1979	60%	10.5	1.24	-1.46	2.70
36	Ryan Fitzpatrick	CIN	2008	59.4%	8.6	-0.44	-3.12	2.68
37	Joe Montana	SFO	1985	61.3%	12.1	1.86	-0.82	2.68
38	Peyton Manning	IND	2010	66.3%	10.4	1.34	-1.33	2.67
39	Dave Krieg	SEA	1991	65.6%	11.1	1.77	-0.90	2.67
40	Christian Ponder	MIN	2012	62.1%	9.8	0.34	-2.32	2.66
41	Kordell Stewart	PIT	1999	58.2%	9.2	0.25	-2.40	2.65
42	Fran Tarkenton	NYG	1971	58.5%	11.4	1.11	-1.54	2.65
43	Joe Theismann	WAS	1985	55.5%	10.6	0.22	-2.42	2.64
44	Matt Ryan	ATL	2012	68.6%	11.2	1.94	-0.63	2.57
45	Charlie Frye	CLE	2006	64.3%	9.7	1.06	-1.51	2.57
46	Jeff George	IND	1991	60.2%	10.0	0.53	-2.02	2.55
47	Bob Griese	MIA	1978	63%	12.1	2.06	-0.49	2.55
48	Archie Manning	NOR	1978	61.8%	11.7	1.79	-0.75	2.54
49	Brett Favre	NYJ	2008	65.7%	10.1	1.09	-1.45	2.54
50	Dave Krieg	CHI	1996	59.9%	10.1	0.58	-1.94	2.53
51	Gary Huff	CHI	1975	55.6%	9.5	0.45	-2.05	2.51
52	Drew Brees	NOR	2014	69.2%	10.9	1.71	-0.80	2.50
53	Matthew Stafford	DET	2015	67.2%	10.7	1.20	-1.25	2.45
54	Sonny Jurgensen	WAS	1970	59.9%	11.7	1.57	-0.84	2.40
55	Ken Anderson	CIN	1974	64.9%	12.5	2.34	-0.06	2.40
56	Jim Harbaugh	IND	1997	61.2%	10.9	1.29	-1.11	2.40
57	Ryan Tannehill	MIA	2014	66.4%	10.3	0.97	-1.41	2.38
58	Danny White	DAL	1985	59.3%	11.8	1.30	-1.08	2.38
59	Steve Walsh	CHI	1994	60.6%	10.0	0.55	-1.83	2.37
60	Ken Anderson	CIN	1972	56.8%	11.2	1.08	-1.28	2.35
61	Steve Young	SFO	1997	67.7%	12.6	3.04	0.70	2.34
62	Archie Manning	NOR	1981	57.8%	10.8	0.61	-1.72	2.33
63	Troy Aikman	DAL	1993	69.1%	11.4	2.25	-0.06	2.32
64	Mike Livingston	KAN	1978	54.8%	9.9	0.24	-2.07	2.31
65	Sonny Jurgensen	WAS	1968	57.2%	11.9	1.19	-1.09	2.29
66	Joe Montana	SFO	1983	64.5%	11.8	1.45	-0.82	2.27
67	Jay Cutler	CHI	2014	66%	10.3	0.83	-1.43	2.26
68	Josh Freeman	TAM	2011	62.8%	10.4	0.64	-1.63	2.26
69	Greg Landry	BAL	1979	59.1%	10.9	1.03	-1.23	2.26
70	Bobby Hebert	NOR	1989	62.9%	12.1	1.49	-0.77	2.25
71	Ken O'Brien	NYJ	1989	60.4%	11.6	0.90	-1.35	2.25
72	Brian Griese	TAM	2004	69.3%	11.3	1.83	-0.41	2.25
73	Steve Bartkowski	ATL	1983	63.4%	11.6	1.23	-1.01	2.24
74	Ken Anderson	CIN	1980	60.4%	10.7	0.86	-1.37	2.23
75	Len Dawson	KAN	1967	57.7%	12.9	1.56	-0.66	2.22
76	Roman Gabriel	RAM	1969	54.4%	11.7	0.73	-1.49	2.22
77	Warren Moon	HOU	1992	64.7%	11.3	1.35	-0.86	2.21
78	Joe Montana	SFO	1986	62.2%	11.7	1.54	-0.67	2.21
79	Ken Stabler	OAK	1973	62.7%	12.3	1.89	-0.30	2.19
80	John Brodie	SFO	1969	55.9%	12.4	1.14	-1.05	2.18
81	Jon Kitna	SEA	2000	62%	10.3	0.79	-1.40	2.18
82	Steve Bartkowski	ATL	1982	63.4%	11.5	1.29	-0.88	2.17
83	Jim Kelly	BUF	1987	59.7%	11.2	0.78	-1.39	2.17
84	Randy Wright	GNB	1988	57.8%	10.6	0.60	-1.57	2.17
85	Brad Johnson	MIN	1997	60.8%	11.0	1.20	-0.96	2.16
86	Neil O'Donnell	CIN	1998	61.8%	10.5	1.10	-1.05	2.15
87	Cody Carlson	HOU	1992	65.6%	11.5	1.53	-0.60	2.13
88	Rich Gannon	MIN	1991	59.6%	10.3	0.40	-1.73	2.13
89	Chris Chandler	HOU	1995	63.2%	10.9	1.08	-1.05	2.13
90	Troy Aikman	DAL	1991	65.3%	11.6	1.70	-0.41	2.11
91	Dan Fouts	SDG	1984	62.5%	11.8	1.14	-0.97	2.11
92	Ken Anderson	CIN	1984	63.6%	12.0	1.37	-0.73	2.11
93	Patrick Ramsey	WAS	2004	62.1%	9.9	0.32	-1.78	2.10
94	Sonny Jurgensen	WAS	1966	58.3%	12.6	1.31	-0.78	2.09
95	Philip Rivers	SDG	2012	64.1%	10.7	0.84	-1.25	2.09
96	Dan Fouts	SDG	1979	62.6%	12.3	1.82	-0.26	2.08
97	Peyton Manning	IND	2002	66.3%	10.7	1.37	-0.72	2.08
98	Joe Montana	SFO	1990	61.7%	12.3	1.79	-0.29	2.08
99	Roman Gabriel	RAM	1966	54.7%	11.7	0.71	-1.37	2.08
100	Joe Flacco	BAL	2016	64.9%	9.9	0.35	-1.73	2.08
101	Peyton Manning	IND	2008	66.8%	10.8	1.36	-0.72	2.08
102	Dieter Brock	RAM	1985	59.7%	12.2	1.41	-0.66	2.07
103	Brad Johnson	TAM	2001	60.8%	10.0	0.38	-1.69	2.07
104	Anthony Wright	BAL	2005	61.7%	9.6	0.36	-1.71	2.07
105	Brett Favre	GNB	2003	65.4%	10.9	1.55	-0.51	2.07
106	Ken Anderson	CIN	1981	62.6%	12.5	1.72	-0.34	2.07
107	Tom Brady	NWE	2001	63.9%	10.8	1.24	-0.82	2.06
108	Bob Berry	ATL	1970	58%	11.6	1.18	-0.88	2.06
109	Terry Bradshaw	PIT	1971	54.4%	11.1	0.34	-1.71	2.05
110	Fran Tarkenton	MIN	1976	61.9%	11.6	1.38	-0.67	2.05
111	Jeff Hostetler	OAK	1996	60.2%	10.5	0.65	-1.38	2.04
112	Peyton Manning	IND	2003	67%	11.3	1.95	-0.09	2.03
113	Peyton Manning	DEN	2012	68.6%	11.6	1.94	-0.07	2.01
114	Drew Brees	NOR	2016	70%	11.1	1.57	-0.42	2.00
115	Ken Stabler	OAK	1979	61%	11.9	1.47	-0.53	2.00
116	Johnny Unitas	BAL	1967	58.5%	13.4	1.73	-0.26	1.99
117	Drew Brees	NOR	2013	68.6%	11.6	1.86	-0.11	1.97
118	Joe Ferguson	BUF	1984	55.5%	10.4	-0.37	-2.34	1.97
119	Carson Palmer	CIN	2005	67.8%	11.1	1.65	-0.31	1.97
120	Jim Harbaugh	CHI	1993	61.5%	10.0	0.67	-1.29	1.96
121	Tom Brady	NWE	2002	62.1%	10.1	0.51	-1.44	1.96
122	Jim Kelly	BUF	1990	63.3%	12.9	2.32	0.37	1.94
123	Joe Flacco	BAL	2015	64.4%	10.5	0.40	-1.54	1.94
124	Brett Favre	GNB	1994	62.4%	10.7	0.86	-1.08	1.94
125	Steve DeBerg	DEN	1982	58.7%	10.7	0.35	-1.59	1.94
126	Steve DeBerg	TAM	1984	60.5%	11.5	0.70	-1.23	1.93
127	Jim Kelly	BUF	1994	63.6%	10.9	1.09	-0.83	1.91
128	Sonny Jurgensen	WAS	1967	56.7%	13.0	1.35	-0.56	1.91
129	Jim Zorn	SEA	1981	59.4%	11.8	0.99	-0.90	1.90
130	Len Dawson	KAN	1974	58.7%	11.4	1.02	-0.87	1.89
131	Bernie Kosar	CLE	1989	59.1%	11.7	0.59	-1.30	1.89
132	John Brodie	SFO	1968	57.9%	12.9	1.33	-0.56	1.89
133	Dan Pastorini	HOU	1973	53.1%	9.6	-0.42	-2.31	1.89
134	Ray Lucas	NYJ	1999	59.2%	10.4	0.59	-1.29	1.88
135	Philip Rivers	SDG	2013	69.5%	11.8	2.08	0.20	1.88
136	Billy Kilmer	NOR	1970	57%	11.5	0.98	-0.90	1.88
137	Jim McMahon	MIN	1993	60.4%	9.8	0.44	-1.44	1.88
138	Ken Stabler	NOR	1982	61.9%	11.5	1.00	-0.88	1.87
139	Chad Pennington	NYJ	2002	68.9%	11.3	1.88	0.02	1.87
140	Troy Aikman	DAL	1992	63.8%	11.4	1.18	-0.68	1.86
141	Bobby Hebert	NOR	1988	58.6%	11.3	0.75	-1.10	1.85
142	Norm Snead	PHI	1968	52.2%	10.9	0.27	-1.58	1.85
143	Ken O'Brien	NYJ	1987	59.5%	11.5	0.75	-1.10	1.85
144	Jeff Garcia	SFO	2002	62.1%	10.2	0.52	-1.32	1.85
145	Drew Brees	NOR	2015	68.3%	11.4	1.50	-0.35	1.84
146	Bobby Hebert	ATL	1996	60.2%	10.7	0.66	-1.15	1.81
147	Brian Griese	DEN	2001	61%	10.3	0.42	-1.39	1.81
148	Dan Marino	MIA	1985	59.3%	12.3	1.28	-0.53	1.81
149	Jeff Hostetler	NYG	1991	62.8%	11.4	1.13	-0.67	1.80
150	Philip Rivers	SDG	2015	66.1%	11.0	0.89	-0.90	1.79
151	Brian Griese	DEN	2002	66.7%	11.0	1.45	-0.33	1.78
152	Tony Eason	NWE	1986	61.6%	12.1	1.39	-0.39	1.78
153	Matt Ryan	ATL	2010	62.5%	10.4	0.37	-1.41	1.78
154	Danny White	DAL	1983	62.7%	11.9	1.08	-0.70	1.77
155	Chad Pennington	NYJ	2006	64.5%	10.7	1.12	-0.66	1.77
156	Jim Everett	NOR	1994	64.1%	11.1	1.17	-0.60	1.77
157	John Brodie	SFO	1966	54.3%	12.1	0.65	-1.11	1.76
158	David Carr	HOU	2005	60.5%	9.7	0.12	-1.64	1.76
159	Rich Gannon	OAK	2002	67.6%	11.2	1.63	-0.13	1.76
160	Sam Bradford	PHI	2015	65%	10.8	0.58	-1.17	1.75
161	Fran Tarkenton	MIN	1973	61.7%	12.5	1.64	-0.11	1.75
162	Aaron Rodgers	GNB	2012	67.2%	11.6	1.60	-0.15	1.75
163	Daunte Culpepper	MIN	2001	64.2%	11.1	1.32	-0.43	1.74
164	Steve McNair	BAL	2006	63%	10.3	0.76	-0.98	1.74
165	Gary Cuozzo	NOR	1967	51.5%	11.7	0.25	-1.49	1.74
166	Ken O'Brien	NYJ	1986	62.2%	12.3	1.54	-0.20	1.74
167	Alex Smith	KAN	2016	67.1%	10.7	0.88	-0.85	1.73
168	Steve Young	SFO	1994	70.3%	12.3	2.29	0.58	1.71
169	Brad Johnson	MIN	2005	62.6%	10.2	0.55	-1.14	1.70
170	Archie Manning	NOR	1977	55.1%	11.4	0.61	-1.09	1.69
171	Dave Krieg	SEA	1987	60.5%	12.0	0.99	-0.70	1.69
172	Kent Graham	NYG	1999	59%	10.6	0.54	-1.13	1.67
173	Fran Tarkenton	MIN	1972	56.9%	12.3	1.09	-0.58	1.67
174	Neil Lomax	STL	1986	57%	10.8	0.24	-1.42	1.67
175	Ryan Fitzpatrick	BUF	2011	62%	10.9	0.48	-1.18	1.66
176	Chad Pennington	NYJ	2004	65.4%	11.0	1.01	-0.65	1.66
177	Richard Todd	NYJ	1983	59.5%	11.3	0.41	-1.24	1.65
178	Joe Namath	NYJ	1976	49.6%	9.6	-0.51	-2.15	1.65
179	Bernie Kosar	CLE	1991	62.1%	11.4	0.98	-0.67	1.65
180	Bert Jones	BAL	1977	57%	12.0	1.02	-0.62	1.64
181	Sam Bradford	STL	2010	60%	9.9	-0.28	-1.91	1.63
182	Joey Harrington	DET	2003	55.8%	9.3	-0.84	-2.47	1.63
183	Steve DeBerg	SFO	1980	57.9%	10.7	0.28	-1.35	1.63
184	Bob Griese	MIA	1977	58.6%	12.5	1.39	-0.24	1.62
185	Peyton Manning	IND	2009	68.8%	11.5	1.50	-0.11	1.62
186	Bernie Kosar	CLE	1988	60.2%	12.1	1.07	-0.54	1.61
187	Brad Johnson	WAS	2000	62.5%	11.0	0.90	-0.70	1.61
188	Steve Fuller	KAN	1979	54.1%	10.2	-0.10	-1.70	1.60
189	Dave Krieg	SEA	1989	57.3%	11.6	0.18	-1.41	1.59
190	Dan Pastorini	HOU	1974	56.7%	11.2	0.59	-1.00	1.59
191	Rodney Peete	DET	1993	62.3%	10.6	0.83	-0.75	1.58
192	Bart Starr	GNB	1966	62.2%	14.5	1.97	0.40	1.58
193	Bill Munson	DET	1974	56.8%	11.3	0.63	-0.95	1.57
194	Kent Nix	PIT	1967	50.7%	11.7	0.08	-1.49	1.56
195	Jon Kitna	DAL	2010	65.7%	11.3	1.20	-0.37	1.56
196	Chad Pennington	MIA	2008	67.4%	11.4	1.50	-0.06	1.56
197	Ken O'Brien	NYJ	1988	55.7%	10.9	0.20	-1.36	1.56
198	Gary Danielson	DET	1978	56.7%	11.5	0.65	-0.90	1.56
199	Alex Smith	KAN	2014	65.3%	10.8	0.66	-0.89	1.55
200	Kyle Orton	BUF	2014	64.2%	10.5	0.36	-1.19	1.55

As always, please leave your thoughts in the comments. Tomorrow, we’ll look at the opposite result: any guesses as to the leaders in that category?

Tagged as: Sam Bradford

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Sam Bradford Shows Us How Far Completion Percentage Has Fallen

by Chase Stuart on December 24, 2016

in Checkdowns

We’re a fan of progressive leaderboards here at Football Perspective, and it’s time to take a look at the all-time single-season leaders in completion percentage.

Officially, Sammy Baugh was the single-season leader in completion percentage from 1945 to 1981, as he completed 70.3% of his passes in 1945. To qualify for the completion percentage crown, a player needs to throw at least 14 passes per team game, or 224 passes in a 16-game season. Baugh threw 182 passes in 1945, during a ten-game schedule for the Redskins, though Baugh himself missed two games. But let’s up the minimum to 224 passes, since completion percentage can be misleading over a small sample size. That’s certainly not “fair” to Baugh, but this is a fun post designed to look at the progressive leaders in history, so omitting everyone from ’45 to ’81 would be pretty boring.

In 1942, Sammy Baugh completed 58.7% of his passes for the Redskins. Washington went 10-1, finishing 3rd in points and 3rd in yards in a 10-team league, and won the NFL championship. As a team, Washington finished 3rd in ANY/A, too.

That record held for five years, until 1947, when Baugh completed 59.3% of his passes. ^[1]Over in the AAFC, Otto Graham completed 60.6% of his passes, but I’m going to ignore the AAFC today. But it didn’t come with much success: the team finished 4-8, thanks to a very bad defense. Still, don’t blame Baugh: Washington finished 4th in points and 2nd in yards, and easily led the NFL in ANY/A. But the pass defense was nearly as bad as the pass offense was good, and the team lost 13 more fumbles than it recovered, leading to the bad record.

In 1953, Otto Graham smashed the non-Baugh record, completing 64.7% of his passes for the Browns in one of the greatest passing seasons of all time. The Browns had an unreal +5.0 Relative ANY/A that season, and began the season 11-0 before losing the team’s final two games.

In 1974, Ken Anderson completed 64.9% of his passes as part of a strong season for the Bengals. Cincinnati had a good passing offense — it finished in the top 5 in ANY/A — but the team finished just 7-7, in part because the defense finished last in takeaways. [continue reading…]

References[+]

References
↑1	Over in the AAFC, Otto Graham completed 60.6% of his passes, but I’m going to ignore the AAFC today.

Tagged as: Progressive Leaderboard, Sam Bradford

{ 5 comments }

Sam Bradford, Career Passing By Game

by Chase Stuart on September 21, 2016

in Checkdowns, Quarterbacks

On Sunday night, Sam Bradford had a great game in his first start with the Minnesota Vikings. He completed 22 of 31 passes for 286 yards, and while he was sacked 4 times (for -32 yards), he also threw for 11 first downs and 2 touchdowns with no interceptions. That translates to an 8.40 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt average, giving 20 yards for every touchdown and deducting for sacks. If you also give him 9 yards for his other 9 first downs (remember, touchdowns are first downs), that means Bradford a 10.7 average.

Was that the best game of Bradford’s uneven career? I thought it might be up there, so I decided to run the numbers. Turns out, Bradford’s had more good games in his 65-game career than I had remembered.

In October 2013, Bradford had the most efficient game of his career: he went 12 of 16 for 117 yards with 3 TDs and 9 first downs, and no sacks or interceptions in a blowout over Houston. That gave him a career-high 13.8 ANY/A with the first down bonus included. (

As a rookie against the Broncos, Bradford might have had the best combination of quantity and quality in his career: He went 22 of 307 for 308 yards with 3 TDs with 16 first downs, and no interceptions or sack yards lost (he did take two sacks). That gave him a 12.4 ANY/A with the first down bonus, the second highest rate of his career.

The graph below shows all of Bradford’s games and how well he performed (using ANY/A with the first down bonus), in order, and color-coded to match the team he was playing for. I have also included a black line which represents league-average play that season. [continue reading…]

Tagged as: Sam Bradford

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Additional Thoughts on Sam Bradford

by Chase Stuart on March 8, 2016

in Theory

On Thursday, I wrote about the mediocre (and worse) statistics produced by Sam Bradford throughout his career. Today, I wanted try to present the other side of the case. I’ve written about Bradford a few times here at Football Perspective, and some of those articles are instructive:

A year ago, I wondered whether Bradford would break out in his first season with the Eagles, and became a quarterback with the rare age 27 breakout season. I wrote that the odds were highly against a quarterback playing like Bradford through age 26 and then turning into a very good quarterback, but number one picks stuck on bad teams were the quarterbacks most likely to buck that trend.

Prior to the 2013 season, I asked if Bradford was about to have a breakout season because of the new weapons in St. Louis. The result? Bradford was good before getting hurt, and Tavon Austin and Jared Cook didn’t exactly meet expectations.

In the context of defending Bradford, it is easy to point to a revolving cast of characters, both at receiver and offensive coordinator. His first three seasons in St. Louis, he had a different leading receiver and different offensive coordinator each year. In fact, he’s now had five different leading receivers in each of his five seasons, and last year was the first time he’s had a player gain even 700 receiving yards:

Year	Top Receiver	Rec Yds	Offensive Coordinator
2010	Danny Amendola	689	Pat Shurmur
2011	Bradon Lloyd	683	Josh McDaniels
2012	Chris Givens	698	Brian Schottenheimer
2013	Jared Cook	671	Brian Schottenheimer
2015	Jordan Matthews	997	Pat Shurmur

As a result, no player has gained even 15% of Bradford’s career passing yards. In fact, Bradford’s career-leading weapon is Brandon Gibson, who has 11.2% of Bradford’s yards. And only Danny Amendola is also over seven percent.

Receiver	Tar	Yds	Perc
Brandon Gibson	226	1652	11.2%
Danny Amendola	229	1398	9.5%
Chris Givens	119	993	6.7%
Jordan Matthews	117	918	6.2%
Lance Kendricks	124	900	6.1%
Steven Jackson	145	871	5.9%
Zach Ertz	105	816	5.5%
Austin Pettis	120	690	4.7%
Danario Alexander	74	605	4.1%
Daniel Fells	65	391	2.6%
Brandon Lloyd	58	351	2.4%
Laurent Robinson	75	344	2.3%
Jared Cook	42	334	2.3%
Mark Clayton	46	332	2.2%
Brian Quick	45	315	2.1%
Darren Sproles	65	297	2.0%
Brent Celek	20	295	2.0%

That’s a pretty underwhelming set of receivers. One thing that might be instructive is seeing how those players have fared without Bradford. Let’s go in descending order based on the number of targets each player has seen from Bradford. [continue reading…]

Tagged as: Sam Bradford

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Thoughts on Sam Bradford Resigning With The Eagles

by Chase Stuart on March 3, 2016

in Quarterbacks

The Eagles have resigned Sam Bradford, in a move that’s pretty hard to justify. In five different seasons, Bradford has thrown at least 250 pass attempts (he missed all of 2014 with a torn ACL). In those years, he has never ranked as a league-average quarterback as measured by Net Yards per Attempt. Based on PFR’s Advanced Passing Index ratings, Bradford had an 84 NY/A+ as a rookie, a 73 in year two, a 94 in 2012, an 89 in 2013, and a 98 last year.

In these ratings, 100 represents league average, 85 is one standard deviation below league average, and 70 is two standard deviations below league average. That’s five seasons of below-average — and often really below average — quarterbacking. And it now appears as though he’ll be given a sixth year, and you can imagine the smart money is on him once again falling short of league average.

I’m using NY/A instead of ANY/A because NY/A is a better predictive stat and less sensitive to outlier plays, and that arguably hurts Bradford in this analysis. He did post a 102 in ANY/A+ in 2013 because of an excellent interception rate, but the biggest criticism of Bradford is that he doesn’t take enough risks, as he generally throws very short passes. His average pass traveled just 7.04 yards downfield in 2015, which ranked 31st out of 34 qualifying quarterbacks. He ranked 34th out of 37 passers in this metric in 2013, 22nd out of 32 in 2012, 10th out of 33 in 2011, and 30th out of 31 in 2010. As a result, yes, Bradford does throw fewer interceptions, but I don’t think that’s a sign of anything other than conservative quarterback play.

I looked at all quarterbacks who had at least five seasons since 1970 ^[1]I have included quarterbacks who entered the league before 1970, but only counted their post-1969 seasons. with 250 pass attempts. Every season with a NY/A+ index of less than 100 was graded as “Bad” and every season with a NY/A+ index of 100 or better was “Good.” Bradford therefore goes down as 0/5, giving him a grade of -5. That’s pretty bad, although not the worst score in the group: [continue reading…]

References[+]

References
↑1	I have included quarterbacks who entered the league before 1970, but only counted their post-1969 seasons.

Tagged as: Sam Bradford

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Sam Bradford and Breaking Out At Age 27

by Chase Stuart on March 17, 2015

in Statgeekery

Bradford will move from St. Louis to Philadelphia via 195,000 eight-yard passes.

Bradford will be moving from St. Louis to Philadelphia, presumably via 195,000 eight-yard passes.

As a rookie at age 23, Sam Bradford averaged 4.73 Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt ^[1]Defined as Passing Yards + 20 * PTDs – 45 * INTs – Sack Yards Lost, all divided by total dropbacks (i.e., including sacks). at a time when the league average ANY/A was 5.73; as a result, we could say that Bradford had a Relative ANY/A of -1.00. The next year, he averaged 4.49 ANY/A with a RANY/A of -1.41. In 2012, he was at 5.64 and -0.30, and in seven games in ’13, he averaged 6.10 and +0.23. In other words, he’s been mostly below-average for his career.

In order to calculate his career RANY/A to-date, we need to weight his production by his number of dropbacks, which were 624 in ’10, 393 in ’11, 586 in 2012 and 277 in his last season of play. Do the math, and Bradford has a career RANY/A of -0.68 entering the 2015 season. But could he have a breakout year playing with Chip Kelly in Philadelphia?

I decided it would be interesting to look at the question from the reverse angle: how many of the quarterbacks that were really good at age 27 were not so good before that? I defined “really good” to mean a RANY/A of +1.00 on at least 224 dropbacks since 1970 (i.e., a quarterback who had an ANY/A average at least one full yard better than league average, had a significant number of dropbacks, and did so since the merger). I also required that such quarterback had at least 500 career dropbacks through age 26 (Bradford has 1,880 career dropbacks prior to the 2015 season.) There were 24 quarterbacks who met those criteria.

The best RANY/A season since the merger by an age 27 quarterback was Craig Morton; the Dallas quarterback hadn’t played much prior to 1970 (just 615 career dropbacks), but he had been effective in limited time before then (a career RANY/A of +1.58 prior to the ’70 season).

The second best age 27 season came from Boomer Esiason, in his MVP season of 1988. That year, he had 418 dropbacks and averaged 2.77 ANY/A better than the league average; prior to 1988, he had 1,531 career dropbacks, and a career RANY/A of +1.32. The table below shows that data for all 31 quarterbacks: [continue reading…]

References[+]

References
↑1	Defined as Passing Yards + 20 * PTDs – 45 * INTs – Sack Yards Lost, all divided by total dropbacks (i.e., including sacks).

Tagged as: Eagles, Rams, Sam Bradford

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Predictions in Review: NFC West

by Chase Stuart on February 19, 2014

in Stat Recap

During the 2013 offseason, I wrote 32 articles under the RPO 2013 tag. In my Predictions in Review series, I review those preview articles with the benefit of hindsight. Last week was the AFC West; this week, the NFC West.

Let’s begin in Arizona, where I actually got one right.

Questioning the Narrative on Larry Fitzgerald, June 20, 2013

The conventional wisdom was that Larry Fitzgerald was going to have a bounce-back year in 2013. That view was widely-held: in fact, I caged a lot of my negative Fitzgerald comments with caveats, as it felt like criticizing Fitzgerald was just something football writers didn’t do. Fitzgerald was one of the game’s best wide receivers when Kurt Warner was under center, and it felt wrong to argue with folks who wanted to give him a pass for the mediocre numbers he produced with John Skelton/Ryan Lindley/Kevin Kolb. With Carson Palmer in Arizona in 2013, the expectation was a big year for Fitzgerald. Instead, he produced 82 passes for only 954 yards, although he did score 10 touchdowns.

For the second year in a row, Fitzgerald failed to lead his team in receiving yards per game, with Andre Roberts (2012) and Michael Floyd (2013) instead earning those honors. So what’s happened with Fitzgerald? I have no idea, but he’s certainly not the same player he was during the Warner/Anquan Boldin days. And while the touchdowns made sure he wasn’t a complete fantasy bust, he gained just 22.2% of all Cardinals receiving yards in 2013, somehow falling short of his 23.6% mark in his miserable 2012 season. [continue reading…]

Tagged as: 49ers, Cardinals, Larry Fitzgerald, Predictions In Review 2013, Rams, Russell Wilson, Sam Bradford, Seahawks, Vernon Davis

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Sam Bradford, and Ranking Quarterbacks by Yards per Completion

by Chase Stuart on September 29, 2013

in Data Dump, Statistics

Bradford looks to check down.

As a rookie, Sam Bradford ranked last in the league in yards per completion. That year, he averaged 9.92 YPC, 1.61 yards per completion lower than the league average of 11.53. In his second and third years — 2011 and 2012 — Bradford was a little better in that metric, but he still finished 0.65 and 0.34 yards per completion below league average in those seasons. So far in 2013, Bradford has earned his reputation as a checkdown artist: with a 10.21 YPC average, he’s averaged 1.43 fewer yards per completion than the average quarterback.

If you take a weighted average (based on his number of completions in each season), Bradford has been 0.98 yards per completion below league average over the course of his 980 career completed passes. In August, I noted that the Rams have experienced constant turnover at offensive coordinator and wide receiver since Bradford entered the league. This year, with Tavon Austin, Jared Cook, and developing talents like Chris Givens, expectations were high for Bradford. So far, we’ve seen more of the same from Bradford, which means lots of checkdowns and few big plays.

For his career, Bradford has averaged just 10.68 yards per completion. The table below shows the 164 quarterbacks since 1950 to complete at least 850 passes. The far right column represents the difference between each quarterback’s career yards per completion average minus the league average (calculated on a weighted-average basis for each quarterback based on his number of completions in each season) rate. As it turns out, Bradford ranks in the “top five” when it comes to the worst era-adjusted yards per completion averages.
[continue reading…]

Tagged as: Rams, Sam Bradford, Yards per Completion

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Is Sam Bradford poised to to have a breakout season?

by Chase Stuart on August 8, 2013

in Passing, Random Perspective On

Since Sam Bradford was drafted by the Rams in 2010, the only consistent force in St. Louis has been change. Tackle Rodger Saffold, drafted in the second round of the same draft, is the only other player on the 2010 Rams offense who is still on the team. Bradford has already played under three offensive coordinators (Pat Shurmur as a rookie, Josh McDaniels in 2011, and Brian Schottenheimer last year), which means this is the first time in four years he isn’t learning a new system. And while his rookie season was always overrated, his performance last year was better than you think. After adjusting for one of the league’s toughest schedules, Bradford ranked 18th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, despite being saddled with an inferior set of receivers.

How inferior? The table below shows the top six leaders in receiving yards for St. Louis last season:

					Games		Receiving
Rk	Player	Year	Age	Tm	G	GS	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Y/G
1	Chris Givens	2012	23	STL	15	12	42	698	16.62	3	46.5
2	Brandon Gibson	2012	25	STL	16	13	51	691	13.55	5	43.2
3	Danny Amendola	2012	27	STL	11	8	63	666	10.57	3	60.5
4	Lance Kendricks	2012	24	STL	16	14	42	519	12.36	4	32.4
5	Steven Jackson	2012	29	STL	16	15	38	321	8.45	0	20.1
6	Austin Pettis	2012	24	STL	14	2	30	261	8.70	4	18.6

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table

Chances are, unless you’re a Rams fan or play fantasy football, you’ve never even heard of four of those names. And while Amendola was productive when healthy, he missed five games last year (and it’s worth noting that Bradford’s numbers weren’t worse without Amendola in the lineup). Steven Jackson is of course a great player, but there’s only so much help a 29-year-old running back who catches 38 passes can provide to an ailing passing game.
[continue reading…]

Tagged as: NFC West, Rams, RPO 2013, Sam Bradford

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Franchise leaders — passing stats

by Chase Stuart on July 4, 2012

in Passing

Happy 4th of July! Before you head to your barbecue, I’d recommend you take a look at the incredible document our founders signed 236 years ago.

As far as football goes, today’s a good time for a data dump. The table below shows the career passing leaders for each franchise, organized by when the current leader last played for that team.

Team	Yards	Quarterback	Last Yr
NWE	39979	Tom Brady	–
NOR	28394	Drew Brees	–
HOU	16903	Matt Schaub	–
BAL	13816	Joe Flacco	–
IND	54828	Peyton Manning	2011
SEA	29434	Matt Hasselbeck	2010
PHI	32873	Donovan McNabb	2009
CAR	19258	Jake Delhomme	2009
GNB	61655	Brett Favre	2007
JAX	25698	Mark Brunell	2003
DAL	32942	Troy Aikman	2000
MIA	61361	Dan Marino	1999
DEN	51475	John Elway	1998
BUF	35467	Jim Kelly	1996
TEN	33685	Warren Moon	1993
NYG	33462	Phil Simms	1993
STL	23758	Jim Everett	1993
SFO	35124	Joe Montana	1992
TAM	14820	Vinny Testaverde	1992
SDG	43040	Dan Fouts	1987
CIN	32838	Ken Anderson	1986
WAS	25206	Joe Theismann	1985
ATL	23470	Steve Bartkowski	1985
ARI	34639	Jim Hart	1983
PIT	27989	Terry Bradshaw	1983
CLE	23713	Brian Sipe	1983
OAK	19078	Ken Stabler	1979
MIN	33098	Fran Tarkenton	1978
NYJ	27057	Joe Namath	1976
KAN	28507	Len Dawson	1975
DET	15710	Bobby Layne	1958
CHI	14686	Sid Luckman	1950

[continue reading…]

Tagged as: Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, John Elway, Mark Sanchez, Matt Stafford, Mike Vick, Peyton Manning, Robert Griffin III, Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Tony Romo

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