Joe Montana and Records Against The Spread

by Chase Stuart on July 7, 2018

in Vegas

Joe Montana’s teams were really good at winning football games, going 117-47 and 16-7 in games started by the Hall of Fame quarterback. Montana’s teams had a 0.711 overall winning percentage, which is great; but what’s even more remarkable is how well his teams did against the points spread.

On average, Montana’s teams were favored by 4.5 points. And given the nature of how points spreads work, you would expect most teams to win about half of their games against the spread. But Montana’s teams went 114-73 against the spread, a remarkable winning percentage of 0.610. Much of the success was due to the 49ers of 1981 (15-4 ATS), 1984 (13-5), and 1989 (13-3). The ’81 team was one of the most surprising Super Bowl champions of all time; San Francisco was favored in just 9 of 19 games that year, with three of those spreads being just 1-point lines. And the ’84 and ’89 teams were two of the greatest teams of all time, so it’s not surprising that they had great ATS records, too. The table below show’s the record against the spread for each of Montana’s teams in each season of his career:

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Also really good against the spread, of course, is Tom Brady and the Patriots. The ’01, ’03, and ’04 Patriots were all Super Bowl champions that were remarkable against the spread, combining to go 41-11-3 relative to the Vegas odds. The Patriots remained solid but unspectacular against the spread since then, although the ’16 team went 13-2 with Brady under center.

What makes the Brady stuff all the more remarkable: the last 52 times the Patriots have taken the field with Brady under center, the Patriots have been favored. And you have to go back 60 games, November 2014 game against the Packers, where New England has been underdogs with Brady under center. More on that tomorrow.

As it turns out, I didn’t pick Montana and Brady at random. Among all quarterbacks since 1978 (which is as far back as the PFR points spread data goes), they have the top two winning percentages against the spread (minimum 40 starts). Although that perhaps isn’t as impressive as it might sound at first glance: the rest of the top 5 are David Woodley, Jim McMahon, and Bubby Brister. The table below shows each quarterback’s winning percentage against the spread since 1978; for quarterbacks who started games prior to 1978, they are included, but have ** next to their name as a reminder that this data does not show their full career.

Rk	Quarterback	FYr	LYr	Starts	Win ATS	Loss ATS	Tie ATS	Win %	Avg Spread
1	Joe Montana	1979	1994	187	114	73	0	0.61	-4.5
2	Tom Brady	2001	2017	288	169	112	7	0.599	-5.4
3	David Woodley	1980	1985	58	34	23	1	0.595	-1.7
4	Jim McMahon	1982	1994	103	58	39	6	0.592	-2
5	Bubby Brister	1986	1998	77	44	30	3	0.591	0.7
6	Aaron Rodgers	2008	2017	158	91	63	4	0.589	-4.2
7	Andrew Luck	2012	2016	76	43	30	3	0.586	-0.1
8	Doug Flutie	1986	2004	68	38	27	3	0.581	0
9	Danny White	1978	1987	102	58	42	2	0.578	-4.3
10	Gary Danielson**	1978	1988	59	33	24	2	0.576	0.7
11	Stan Humphries	1990	1997	87	49	36	2	0.575	-0.7
12	Joe Theismann**	1978	1985	121	68	50	3	0.574	-1.9
13	Donovan McNabb	1999	2011	177	99	73	5	0.573	-2.6
14	Rodney Peete	1989	2003	89	49	36	4	0.573	1.2
15	Charlie Batch	1998	2012	55	31	23	1	0.573	1.8
16	Jay Fiedler	1999	2004	63	35	26	2	0.571	-1.4
17	Vince Young	2006	2011	51	29	22	0	0.569	0.8
18	Jim Plunkett**	1980	1986	67	37	28	2	0.567	-3
19	Andy Dalton	2011	2017	113	61	46	6	0.566	-1
20	Cam Newton	2011	2017	115	63	48	4	0.565	-0.6
21	Derek Anderson	2006	2016	47	26	20	1	0.564	2.7
22	Don Majkowski	1987	1996	57	32	25	0	0.561	2.6
23	Russell Wilson	2012	2017	108	59	46	3	0.56	-4.8
24	Bill Kenney	1980	1988	77	43	34	0	0.558	2.6
25	Ron Jaworski**	1978	1989	133	72	58	3	0.553	-0.3
26	Phil Simms	1979	1993	169	91	74	4	0.55	-1.3
27	Alex Smith	2005	2017	158	84	69	5	0.547	-0.9
28	Terry Bradshaw**	1978	1983	78	42	35	1	0.545	-5.8
29	Eric Hipple	1981	1989	58	31	26	1	0.543	0.9
30	Drew Brees	2002	2017	261	139	117	5	0.542	-2.2
31	Dave Brown	1994	2000	60	32	27	1	0.542	3.2
32	Elvis Grbac	1995	2001	73	38	32	3	0.541	-1.8
33	Jay Schroeder	1985	1994	104	55	47	2	0.538	-1
33	Steve Beuerlein	1988	2003	104	55	47	2	0.538	1.1
35	John Elway	1983	1998	252	129	110	13	0.538	-2.8
36	Case Keenum	2013	2017	40	21	18	1	0.538	-0.2
37	Jim Zorn**	1978	1987	82	43	37	2	0.537	2.6
37	Kyle Orton	2005	2014	82	43	37	2	0.537	1
39	Peyton Manning	1998	2015	292	154	133	5	0.536	-4.3
40	Dave Krieg	1981	1996	184	96	83	5	0.535	-0.5
41	Trent Dilfer	1994	2007	119	63	55	1	0.534	1
42	Eli Manning	2004	2017	226	118	103	5	0.533	-0.4
43	Marc Wilson	1981	1990	61	32	28	1	0.533	-1.1
44	Brad Johnson	1996	2008	132	68	60	4	0.53	-1.6
45	Bobby Hebert	1985	1996	103	54	48	1	0.529	-0.9
46	Jake Delhomme	1999	2010	104	53	47	4	0.529	-1.2
47	Mike Pagel	1982	1990	54	27	24	3	0.528	5.8
48	Ben Roethlisberger	2004	2017	219	114	102	3	0.527	-3.9
49	Matt Ryan	2008	2017	168	88	79	1	0.527	-1.4
50	Vince Ferragamo	1979	1985	59	28	25	6	0.525	-0.5
50	Jim Kelly	1986	1996	177	92	83	2	0.525	-3.1
50	Tim Couch	1999	2003	59	30	27	2	0.525	5.1
53	Brett Favre	1992	2010	322	161	146	15	0.523	-2.7
54	Tyrod Taylor	2015	2017	43	21	19	3	0.523	0.7
55	Joe Flacco	2008	2017	169	84	77	8	0.521	-2.3
56	Joey Harrington	2002	2007	76	39	36	1	0.52	3.6
57	Byron Leftwich	2003	2012	51	25	23	3	0.52	1.1
58	Chris Chandler	1988	2004	155	78	72	5	0.519	2.4
59	Tony Banks	1996	2003	78	38	35	5	0.519	2.7
60	Steve McNair	1995	2007	163	83	77	3	0.518	-1.1
61	Matt Cassel	2008	2017	82	42	39	1	0.518	2
62	Vinny Testaverde	1987	2007	219	110	102	7	0.518	1.8
63	Mark Malone	1981	1988	55	28	26	1	0.518	1.6
64	Brian Griese	1999	2008	83	42	39	2	0.518	-2.1
65	Rich Gannon	1990	2004	139	69	64	6	0.518	-2.5
66	Philip Rivers	2006	2017	201	102	95	4	0.517	-2.2
67	Chad Pennington	2002	2010	87	43	40	4	0.517	0.6
67	Kirk Cousins	2012	2017	58	30	28	0	0.517	1.4
69	Derek Carr	2014	2017	62	31	29	2	0.516	2.5
70	Jeff Blake	1994	2003	100	50	47	3	0.515	3.5
71	Tommy Kramer**	1979	1989	113	58	55	0	0.513	0.3
72	Troy Aikman	1989	2000	180	90	86	4	0.511	-3.7
73	Josh Freeman	2009	2015	61	31	30	0	0.508	2.9
74	Blake Bortles	2014	2017	64	32	31	1	0.508	2.5
75	Erik Kramer	1987	1999	70	35	34	1	0.507	2.2
76	Randall Cunningham	1985	2001	144	71	69	4	0.507	-2.1
77	Mike Tomczak	1986	1999	78	39	38	1	0.506	-1.9
78	Mark Brunell	1995	2009	161	79	77	5	0.506	-1
79	Ken Anderson**	1978	1985	92	46	45	1	0.505	0.7
80	Chris Miller	1987	1999	94	46	45	3	0.505	3.6
81	Joe Ferguson**	1978	1989	111	53	52	6	0.505	1.4
82	Trent Green	1998	2008	115	55	55	5	0.5	-0.9
82	Kurt Warner	1999	2009	129	63	63	3	0.5	-3.7
82	Sam Bradford	2010	2017	80	40	40	0	0.5	1.6
85	Drew Bledsoe	1993	2006	199	93	95	11	0.495	-0.6
86	Kordell Stewart	1997	2003	86	41	42	3	0.494	-1.7
87	Steve Young	1985	1999	157	76	78	3	0.494	-6.6
88	Jim Harbaugh	1988	2000	145	69	71	5	0.493	0.8
89	Kerry Collins	1995	2011	187	90	93	4	0.492	0.9
90	Ryan Fitzpatrick	2005	2017	119	55	57	7	0.492	2.4
91	Neil O'Donnell	1991	2003	107	51	53	3	0.491	-0.3
92	Craig Morton**	1978	1982	52	24	25	3	0.49	-1.3
93	Neil Lomax	1981	1988	102	50	52	0	0.49	1.6
94	Boomer Esiason	1984	1997	178	85	89	4	0.489	0.3
95	Jeff Hostetler	1988	1997	88	41	43	4	0.489	-2.1
96	Steve Walsh	1989	1996	41	20	21	0	0.488	1.6
97	David Garrard	2002	2010	78	38	40	0	0.487	-0.4
97	Mark Sanchez	2009	2015	78	37	39	2	0.487	-0.7
99	Josh McCown	2003	2017	73	35	37	1	0.486	4.1
100	Tony Romo	2006	2015	133	64	68	1	0.485	-3.2
101	Doug Williams	1978	1989	88	41	44	3	0.483	0.3
102	Dan Marino	1983	1999	258	122	131	5	0.483	-2.7
103	Rex Grossman	2003	2011	51	24	26	1	0.48	-0.8
104	Jack Trudeau	1986	1994	50	24	26	0	0.48	4.4
105	Warren Moon	1984	2000	213	99	108	6	0.479	-0.6
106	Michael Vick	2001	2015	118	56	61	1	0.479	-1.4
107	Bernie Kosar	1985	1995	115	53	58	4	0.478	-1
108	Mark Rypien	1988	1995	85	39	43	3	0.476	-3.7
109	Steve Grogan**	1978	1990	102	48	53	1	0.475	-1.4
110	Steve Bartkowski**	1978	1986	108	49	55	4	0.472	-0.4
111	Brian Sipe**	1978	1983	85	39	44	2	0.471	0
112	Colin Kaepernick	2012	2016	64	28	32	4	0.469	-1
113	Jim Everett	1986	1997	158	73	83	2	0.468	1.1
113	David Carr	2002	2007	79	36	41	2	0.468	5.9
115	Ryan Tannehill	2012	2016	77	35	40	2	0.468	0.8
116	Dan Fouts**	1978	1987	135	61	70	4	0.467	-2.5
117	Steve Fuller	1979	1986	44	19	22	3	0.466	1.3
118	Steve DeBerg	1978	1998	144	64	74	6	0.465	2.2
119	Matt Hasselbeck	2001	2015	171	76	88	7	0.465	-0.7
120	Carson Palmer	2004	2017	185	83	96	6	0.465	-0.4
121	Lynn Dickey**	1979	1985	84	38	44	2	0.464	1.1
122	Ken Stabler**	1978	1983	83	36	42	5	0.464	-1.9
123	Richard Todd**	1978	1984	95	44	51	0	0.463	0.1
124	Aaron Brooks	2000	2006	92	42	49	1	0.462	1.1
125	Jason Campbell	2006	2013	79	32	39	8	0.456	2
126	Jameis Winston	2015	2017	45	20	24	1	0.456	2.4
127	Jim Hart**	1978	1983	55	24	29	2	0.455	2.8
127	Marcus Mariota	2015	2017	44	19	23	2	0.455	0.8
129	Nick Foles	2012	2017	43	19	23	1	0.453	-0.4
130	Wade Wilson	1983	1998	74	33	40	1	0.453	-1.6
131	Jon Kitna	1997	2010	125	55	67	3	0.452	2
132	Archie Manning**	1978	1984	69	30	37	2	0.449	4.4
133	Jake Plummer	1997	2006	142	61	76	5	0.447	0.5
134	Ken O'Brien	1984	1993	112	49	61	2	0.446	0.8
135	Matthew Stafford	2009	2017	128	55	69	4	0.445	0.2
136	Scott Mitchell	1993	2000	73	32	40	1	0.445	0.1
137	Steve Bono	1987	1998	43	19	24	0	0.442	-2.2
138	Matt Schaub	2004	2015	94	40	51	3	0.441	-1.4
139	Gus Frerotte	1994	2008	95	41	53	1	0.437	0.5
140	Kyle Boller	2003	2011	47	20	26	1	0.436	0.5
141	Marc Bulger	2002	2009	98	42	55	1	0.434	1.3
142	Jeff Garcia	1999	2008	122	50	67	5	0.43	-0.3
143	Robert Griffin	2012	2016	41	17	23	1	0.427	1.9
144	Pat Haden**	1978	1981	40	16	22	2	0.425	-4
145	Chad Henne	2009	2014	53	22	30	1	0.425	4.5
146	Daunte Culpepper	2000	2009	104	44	60	0	0.423	-0.1
147	Dan Pastorini**	1978	1981	46	18	26	2	0.413	-0.9
148	Blaine Gabbert	2011	2017	45	18	26	1	0.411	6.2
149	Jeff George	1990	2001	127	51	74	2	0.409	2.2
150	Billy Joe Tolliver	1989	1999	47	18	27	2	0.404	3.7
151	Bert Jones**	1978	1982	41	16	24	1	0.402	2.4
152	Jay Cutler	2006	2017	155	59	90	6	0.4	0.4
153	Rick Mirer	1993	2003	68	26	40	2	0.397	3.1
154	Tony Eason	1983	1989	56	20	34	2	0.375	-1.7

A couple other notes:

Jay Cutler was 31 games under .500 ATS as a starter, which is a record. The Broncos were particularly bad in games started by Cutler (10-26-1 ATS), and the Bears also went 2-8-1 with Cutler under center in 2013.

You can sort the table by any metric you like. You probably won’t be too surprised — but will still find it interesting — to see that Young and Gabbert played with the largest points spreads, on average, of any quarterback in the study.

Tagged as: Joe Montana, Tom Brady, Vegas

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