Adam Steele is back to give us his thoughts on this week’s quarterbacks. It’s been fun to follow his progression from hopeful fan to ranting madman over the course of just fifteen weeks.
This is starting to sound like a broken record but we just witnessed yet another week of terrible quarterbacking. Only 9 of 32 qualifiers even cracked a QBR of 50! We can’t even blame this on backup QB’s dragging down the average as the bottom 10 were all regular starters aside from Mike Glennon. If anything, the backups outperformed the starters with Tyler Huntley taking the week 15 crown and Nick Mullens placing eighth.
| # | QB Week 15 | Plays | PFF | QBR | zPlays | zPFF | zQBR | zAvg | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler Huntley | 58 | 81.5 | 82.4 | 1.87 | 1.29 | 1.76 | 1.55 | 0.47 |
| 2 | Patrick Mahomes | 54 | 78.2 | 73.8 | 1.46 | 1.06 | 1.41 | 1.25 | 0.35 |
| 3 | Justin Herbert | 45 | 89.6 | 49.6 | 0.53 | 1.86 | 0.40 | 1.16 | 1.46 |
| 4 | Aaron Rodgers | 39 | 79.2 | 84.2 | -0.09 | 1.13 | 1.84 | 1.10 | 0.71 |
| 5 | Jimmy Garoppolo | 28 | 88.0 | 61.5 | -1.23 | 1.75 | 0.90 | 0.90 | 0.86 |
| 6 | Dak Prescott | 41 | 70.4 | 71.5 | 0.12 | 0.51 | 1.31 | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| 7 | Joe Burrow | 33 | 78.8 | 51.9 | -0.71 | 1.10 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 0.61 |
| 8 | Nick Mullens | 31 | 69.2 | 77.9 | -0.92 | 0.43 | 1.58 | 0.50 | 1.15 |
| 9 | Jared Goff | 31 | 62.1 | 93.8 | -0.92 | -0.07 | 2.24 | 0.45 | 2.31 |
| 10 | Matthew Stafford | 36 | 76.7 | 42.8 | -0.40 | 0.96 | 0.12 | 0.43 | 0.84 |
| 11 | Mac Jones | 52 | 62.5 | 53.4 | 1.25 | -0.04 | 0.56 | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| 12 | Justin Fields | 50 | 73.5 | 16.5 | 1.05 | 0.73 | -0.97 | 0.28 | 1.70 |
| 13 | Jalen Hurts | 39 | 74.9 | 30.4 | -0.09 | 0.83 | -0.39 | 0.28 | 1.22 |
| 14 | Derek Carr | 44 | 65.4 | 46.4 | 0.43 | 0.16 | 0.27 | 0.25 | 0.11 |
| 15 | Ryan Tannehill | 45 | 68.9 | 20.8 | 0.53 | 0.41 | -0.79 | 0.07 | 1.20 |
| 16 | Matt Ryan | 46 | 61.5 | 33.3 | 0.63 | -0.11 | -0.27 | -0.01 | 0.16 |
| 17 | Trevor Lawrence | 46 | 64.4 | 22.6 | 0.63 | 0.09 | -0.72 | -0.04 | 0.81 |
| 18 | Josh Allen | 41 | 58.2 | 47.6 | 0.12 | -0.35 | 0.32 | -0.05 | 0.67 |
| 19 | Taysom Hill | 40 | 65.3 | 26.5 | 0.01 | 0.15 | -0.56 | -0.09 | 0.71 |
| 20 | Kyler Murray | 49 | 63.9 | 7.6 | 0.94 | 0.05 | -1.34 | -0.19 | 1.40 |
| 21 | Garrett Gilbert | 34 | 59.7 | 39.8 | -0.61 | -0.24 | 0.00 | -0.24 | 0.24 |
| 22 | Cam Newton | 61 | 47.8 | 15.6 | 2.18 | -1.08 | -1.01 | -0.41 | 0.07 |
| 23 | Zach Wilson | 33 | 65.2 | 10.9 | -0.71 | 0.15 | -1.20 | -0.43 | 1.35 |
| 24 | Tom Brady | 54 | 47.6 | 18.4 | 1.46 | -1.09 | -0.89 | -0.52 | 0.20 |
| 25 | Kirk Cousins | 31 | 59.1 | 18.9 | -0.92 | -0.28 | -0.87 | -0.59 | 0.59 |
| 26 | Teddy Bridgewater | 28 | 56.4 | 29.1 | -1.23 | -0.47 | -0.45 | -0.62 | 0.03 |
| 27 | Tua Tagovailoa | 33 | 44.3 | 43.4 | -0.71 | -1.33 | 0.15 | -0.76 | 1.47 |
| 28 | Ben Roethlisberger | 35 | 51.8 | 12.5 | -0.50 | -0.80 | -1.14 | -0.84 | 0.34 |
| 29 | Davis Mills | 33 | 46.1 | 20.4 | -0.71 | -1.20 | -0.81 | -0.98 | 0.39 |
| 30 | Russell Wilson | 38 | 33.6 | 28.5 | -0.19 | -2.08 | -0.47 | -1.22 | 1.61 |
| 31 | Mike Glennon | 29 | 41.0 | 8.1 | -1.12 | -1.56 | -1.32 | -1.40 | 0.24 |
| 32 | Carson Wentz | 19 | 35.2 | 36.7 | -2.16 | -1.97 | -0.13 | -1.45 | 1.83 |
As has often been the case in 2021, PFF and QBR had some pretty extreme disagreements in week 15. Most notably, Jared Goff scored the league’s best QBR by a mile in his upset victory over Arizona, but PFF only graded him as the 19th best quarterback this week. Across the league 11 signal callers had more than a full standard deviation chasm between their scores in the two metrics. That’s pretty wild and reinforces how imperative it is to blend more than one source of data when evaluating NFL players.
In Defense of Counting Stats
The worst QB of the week according to my method was Carson Wentz, and I want to delve deeper into one of the reasons he scored so poorly. Anyone who watched the Pats/Colts game on Saturday could tell you that Indy head coach Frank Reich was trying to keep the ball out of Wentz’s hands. It was a unicorn of a game to see a healthy QB only drop back 13 times inside a dome. Mac Jones was similarly removed from the game plan a few weeks prior in Buffalo, though at least he had the excuse of gale force winds disrupting the passing game.
What do we make of these extremely low volume games? In my opinion, they reflect poorly on the QB for three reasons: it’s easier to be efficient over a smaller sample than a larger one, it’s easier to be efficient when the defense has to respect the run rather than teeing off against the pass, and it gives us a glimpse into how the coach really feels about the player. The first two reasons aren’t very controversial, but a lot of fans and analysts get hot under the collar when they’re told to trust the coaches.
I start with the premise that professional football coaches know a lot about football and are doing their best to win every game. Therefore a coach who hides his QB is speaking volumes about how good the QB is, or at least how useful he is within the context of a given game. The most vivid recent example is the 2019 NFC Championship Game. With a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan only let Jimmy Garoppolo attempt eight passes. Sure their running game was very effective. Sure they led the whole game. But the bottom line is that Shanahan didn’t trust Garoppolo to carry the load when it mattered most. The same is true of Wentz and Jones in their low attempt games this year.
For a good counter-example let’s go back in time and reminisce about mid-90’s Drew Bledsoe. If you’re too young or don’t remember, Bledsoe attempted a ridiculous number of passes for the Bill Parcells Patriots, particularly in 1994 and 1995. His efficiency fluctuated between slightly above average and downright poor. On the surface Bledsoe looked like a classic stat padder who only had good counting stats because he threw the ball so damn often. But here’s where we need to ask why he was regularly dropping back 50 times per game.
Well, the most concise answer is that putting the ball in Bledsoe’s hands gave New England the best chance to win. Parcells knew that his offensive personnel were suspect and even an inefficient Bledsoe was better than any alternative. The legendary coach was showing us how highly he thought of his QB by handing him the reins every single week.
This principle can also be applied at the career level. The absolute worst quarterbacks of all time are not the ones who’ve accumulated a pile of ugly stats. No, that dubious distinction is reserved for the ones who were never allowed to see the field in the first place. As bad as Ryan Leaf and JaMarcus Russell were, do you know who was even worse? Christian Hackenberg (sorry, Chase). He was so unspeakably awful as a second round pick that his coaches never gave him a single regular season NFL snap. That fact alone says more about Hackenberg than any passing statistics ever could.
Now the 2021 season rankings:
| # | QB 2021 Season | Plays | PFF | QBR | zPlays | zPFF | zQBR | zAvg | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Brady | 673 | 90.0 | 64.1 | 1.53 | 1.53 | 1.37 | 1.48 | 0.17 |
| 2 | Justin Herbert | 659 | 89.2 | 66.2 | 1.38 | 1.46 | 1.55 | 1.47 | 0.09 |
| 3 | Aaron Rodgers | 512 | 84.6 | 67.3 | -0.17 | 1.01 | 1.64 | 0.96 | 0.63 |
| 4 | Matthew Stafford | 570 | 82.4 | 65.7 | 0.44 | 0.80 | 1.50 | 0.94 | 0.71 |
| 5 | Josh Allen | 677 | 81.9 | 57.7 | 1.57 | 0.75 | 0.81 | 0.93 | 0.06 |
| 6 | Kirk Cousins | 579 | 87.0 | 52.3 | 0.54 | 1.24 | 0.35 | 0.83 | 0.90 |
| 7 | Joe Burrow | 535 | 90.4 | 49.0 | 0.08 | 1.57 | 0.06 | 0.82 | 1.51 |
| 8 | Patrick Mahomes | 672 | 75.7 | 58.2 | 1.52 | 0.15 | 0.86 | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| 9 | Ryan Tannehill | 580 | 82.8 | 51.4 | 0.55 | 0.84 | 0.27 | 0.61 | 0.57 |
| 10 | Derek Carr | 636 | 78.9 | 53.4 | 1.14 | 0.46 | 0.44 | 0.59 | 0.02 |
| 11 | Kyler Murray | 479 | 83.5 | 56.2 | -0.51 | 0.90 | 0.68 | 0.55 | 0.22 |
| 12 | Mac Jones | 518 | 81.5 | 52.2 | -0.10 | 0.71 | 0.34 | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| 13 | Dak Prescott | 596 | 80.2 | 47.3 | 0.72 | 0.58 | -0.09 | 0.41 | 0.67 |
| 14 | Jalen Hurts | 553 | 80.9 | 46.7 | 0.27 | 0.65 | -0.14 | 0.34 | 0.79 |
| 15 | Matt Ryan | 582 | 75.8 | 48.2 | 0.57 | 0.16 | -0.01 | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| 16 | Jimmy Garoppolo | 451 | 76.6 | 54.3 | -0.81 | 0.23 | 0.52 | 0.11 | 0.28 |
| 17 | Carson Wentz | 537 | 70.2 | 58.2 | 0.10 | -0.39 | 0.86 | 0.08 | 1.24 |
| 18 | Lamar Jackson | 574 | 70.3 | 50.0 | 0.49 | -0.38 | 0.15 | -0.05 | 0.52 |
| 19 | Teddy Bridgewater | 519 | 73.5 | 47.1 | -0.09 | -0.07 | -0.10 | -0.08 | 0.04 |
| 20 | Tua Tagovailoa | 362 | 74.4 | 56.3 | -1.74 | 0.02 | 0.69 | -0.13 | 0.67 |
| 21 | Russell Wilson | 401 | 72.5 | 49.3 | -1.33 | -0.16 | 0.09 | -0.32 | 0.25 |
| 22 | Daniel Jones | 472 | 71.6 | 41.8 | -0.59 | -0.25 | -0.56 | -0.41 | 0.31 |
| 23 | Taylor Heinicke | 527 | 62.2 | 46.0 | -0.01 | -1.16 | -0.20 | -0.64 | 0.96 |
| 24 | Baker Mayfield | 428 | 67.7 | 38.7 | -1.05 | -0.63 | -0.83 | -0.77 | 0.20 |
| 25 | Ben Roethlisberger | 566 | 59.7 | 40.0 | 0.40 | -1.40 | -0.72 | -0.84 | 0.69 |
| 26 | Jared Goff | 556 | 59.8 | 36.3 | 0.30 | -1.39 | -1.04 | -0.95 | 0.36 |
| 27 | Trevor Lawrence | 634 | 57.9 | 31.7 | 1.12 | -1.58 | -1.43 | -1.00 | 0.14 |
| 28 | Sam Darnold | 381 | 62.6 | 35.9 | -1.54 | -1.12 | -1.07 | -1.19 | 0.05 |
| 29 | Justin Fields | 397 | 64.2 | 25.3 | -1.37 | -0.97 | -1.99 | -1.36 | 1.02 |
| 30 | Zach Wilson | 375 | 58.0 | 22.5 | -1.61 | -1.57 | -2.23 | -1.77 | 0.66 |
| 31 | Davis Mills | 358 | 53.6 | 27.9 | -1.78 | -2.00 | -1.76 | -1.88 | 0.23 |
While Tom Brady narrowly holds on to the top spot ahead of the surging Justin Herbert, PFF has pushed a new QB to the top of their grades. Why of course, it’s…Joe Burrow? I don’t think anyone on the planet besides Burrow’s mom thinks he’s the best QB in the NFL, but once again, that’s why it’s important to utilize more than one metric. In his Unexpected Points podcast, PFF’s Kevin Cole admitted that Burrow’s penchant for taking sacks is not penalized enough in their grading system. In fact, Burrow has lost more EPA on sacks than any QB in the league this year. That’s probably why he ranks only 17th in QBR and partially explains why Cincinnati’s offense has been so inconsistent.
What stands out to you?