Adam Steele is back with another quarterback recap. He has a broken arm and a detached retina, and he’s ready to win it.
This may have been the least interesting week of the 2021 season for overall game quality (favorites were 12-2 with some totally noncompetitive matchups), but it was still a fascinating slate for analyzing quarterback performance.
| # | QB Week 14 | Plays | PFF | QBR | zPlays | zPFF | zQBR | zAvg | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Russell Wilson | 35 | 89.5 | 92.8 | -0.95 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.30 | 0.38 |
| 2 | Matthew Stafford | 36 | 90.1 | 86.3 | -0.85 | 1.77 | 1.81 | 1.26 | 0.04 |
| 3 | Josh Allen | 72 | 75.8 | 57.1 | 2.80 | 0.72 | 0.50 | 1.07 | 0.23 |
| 4 | Joe Burrow | 41 | 90.6 | 54.1 | -0.34 | 1.81 | 0.36 | 0.94 | 1.45 |
| 5 | Kyler Murray | 65 | 79.3 | 36.1 | 2.09 | 0.98 | -0.45 | 0.77 | 1.43 |
| 6 | Ryan Tannehill | 41 | 79.0 | 66.7 | -0.34 | 0.96 | 0.93 | 0.69 | 0.03 |
| 7 | Tom Brady | 56 | 63.1 | 75.2 | 1.18 | -0.20 | 1.31 | 0.53 | 1.52 |
| 8 | Baker Mayfield | 39 | 76.2 | 57.2 | -0.55 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.42 | 0.25 |
| 9 | Justin Herbert | 38 | 74.7 | 60.0 | -0.65 | 0.64 | 0.63 | 0.38 | 0.02 |
| 10 | Patrick Mahomes | 39 | 70.3 | 68.9 | -0.55 | 0.32 | 1.03 | 0.36 | 0.71 |
| 11 | Aaron Rodgers | 41 | 72.4 | 59.2 | -0.34 | 0.48 | 0.59 | 0.35 | 0.11 |
| 12 | Ben Roethlisberger | 52 | 71.1 | 32.9 | 0.77 | 0.38 | -0.60 | 0.17 | 0.98 |
| 13 | Taysom Hill | 34 | 72.0 | 54.4 | -1.05 | 0.45 | 0.37 | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| 14 | Tyler Huntley | 49 | 62.3 | 57.4 | 0.47 | -0.26 | 0.51 | 0.11 | 0.77 |
| 15 | Jimmy Garoppolo | 50 | 66.3 | 39.4 | 0.57 | 0.03 | -0.30 | 0.04 | 0.33 |
| 16 | Matt Ryan | 35 | 65.9 | 62.6 | -0.95 | 0.00 | 0.74 | 0.03 | 0.74 |
| 17 | Teddy Bridgewater | 28 | 67.7 | 62.8 | -1.66 | 0.13 | 0.75 | -0.04 | 0.62 |
| 18 | Derek Carr | 51 | 60.2 | 34.2 | 0.67 | -0.42 | -0.54 | -0.24 | 0.12 |
| 19 | Davis Mills | 55 | 55.9 | 26.8 | 1.07 | -0.73 | -0.87 | -0.41 | 0.14 |
| 20 | Jared Goff | 44 | 55.2 | 42.2 | -0.04 | -0.78 | -0.18 | -0.45 | 0.61 |
| 21 | Cam Newton | 34 | 63.5 | 28.3 | -1.05 | -0.18 | -0.80 | -0.54 | 0.63 |
| 22 | Kirk Cousins | 35 | 62.8 | 22.6 | -0.95 | -0.23 | -1.06 | -0.62 | 0.83 |
| 23 | Justin Fields | 48 | 49.6 | 37.8 | 0.37 | -1.19 | -0.37 | -0.64 | 0.82 |
| 24 | Zach Wilson | 51 | 53.2 | 20.0 | 0.67 | -0.93 | -1.18 | -0.68 | 0.25 |
| 25 | Mike Glennon | 42 | 53.1 | 22.4 | -0.24 | -0.94 | -1.07 | -0.84 | 0.13 |
| 26 | Dak Prescott | 50 | 47.4 | 9.9 | 0.57 | -1.35 | -1.63 | -1.05 | 0.28 |
| 27 | Trevor Lawrence | 47 | 44.0 | 18.9 | 0.26 | -1.60 | -1.23 | -1.12 | 0.38 |
| 28 | Taylor Heinicke | 35 | 34.0 | 4.9 | -0.95 | -2.33 | -1.86 | -1.91 | 0.48 |
This week’s top five represent a fun contrast in game planning. Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford were hyper efficient on relatively low volume while Josh Allen and Kyler Murray sacrificed some efficiency to carry a huge offensive load. I think it’s entirely subjective as to which type of game you find more impressive.
Speaking of Murray, his MNF performance showed how deceiving box score numbers can really be. The Cardinals QB had no touchdowns and two interceptions, which would lead one to believe that he had a bad game. But PFF graders credit Murray with five big time throws vs. LA, tied for the most this week (Stafford also had five). Conversely, Aaron Rodgers tossed four TD’s but only had two big time throws.
In week 14 the correlation between PFF grades and QBR was 0.78; this is much more in line with the norm than week 13 where the metrics butted heads quite often. That said, there were still a handful of quarterbacks who looked very different depending on the measurement used. I added a differential column to the weekly tables so you can sort by the magnitude of this difference. For reasons I don’t understand, Joe Burrow continues to be loved by PFF and hated by QBR.
Now onto the season rankings:
| # | QB 2021 Season | Plays | PFF | QBR | zPlays | zPFF | zQBR | zAvg | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Brady | 619 | 91.5 | 67.7 | 1.36 | 1.66 | 1.60 | 1.58 | 0.06 |
| 2 | Justin Herbert | 614 | 86.3 | 67.5 | 1.31 | 1.15 | 1.58 | 1.31 | 0.43 |
| 3 | Josh Allen | 636 | 83.3 | 57.5 | 1.54 | 0.86 | 0.72 | 0.95 | 0.14 |
| 4 | Kirk Cousins | 548 | 88.3 | 54.7 | 0.62 | 1.35 | 0.48 | 0.94 | 0.87 |
| 5 | Matthew Stafford | 534 | 81.4 | 67.4 | 0.48 | 0.67 | 1.57 | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| 6 | Aaron Rodgers | 473 | 83.2 | 64.9 | -0.15 | 0.85 | 1.36 | 0.80 | 0.51 |
| 7 | Joe Burrow | 502 | 90.0 | 49.4 | 0.15 | 1.52 | 0.03 | 0.80 | 1.49 |
| 8 | Kyler Murray | 430 | 84.7 | 61.5 | -0.60 | 1.00 | 1.07 | 0.70 | 0.07 |
| 9 | Ryan Tannehill | 535 | 82.8 | 54.1 | 0.49 | 0.81 | 0.43 | 0.63 | 0.38 |
| 10 | Derek Carr | 592 | 79.3 | 54.4 | 1.08 | 0.47 | 0.46 | 0.59 | 0.01 |
| 11 | Patrick Mahomes | 618 | 73.9 | 57.3 | 1.35 | -0.06 | 0.71 | 0.45 | 0.77 |
| 12 | Mac Jones | 466 | 83.0 | 51.7 | -0.23 | 0.83 | 0.22 | 0.44 | 0.61 |
| 13 | Dak Prescott | 555 | 79.9 | 45.9 | 0.70 | 0.53 | -0.27 | 0.32 | 0.80 |
| 14 | Jalen Hurts | 514 | 80.0 | 48.5 | 0.27 | 0.54 | -0.05 | 0.31 | 0.59 |
| 15 | Carson Wentz | 518 | 73.0 | 58.2 | 0.31 | -0.15 | 0.78 | 0.22 | 0.93 |
| 16 | Matt Ryan | 536 | 76.5 | 49.2 | 0.50 | 0.19 | 0.01 | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| 17 | Tua Tagovailoa | 329 | 78.8 | 57.7 | -1.65 | 0.42 | 0.74 | 0.10 | 0.32 |
| 18 | Teddy Bridgewater | 491 | 74.5 | 48.7 | 0.03 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| 19 | Lamar Jackson | 574 | 70.3 | 49.8 | 0.89 | -0.41 | 0.06 | -0.01 | 0.47 |
| 20 | Russell Wilson | 363 | 78.3 | 51.5 | -1.30 | 0.37 | 0.21 | -0.01 | 0.16 |
| 21 | Jimmy Garoppolo | 423 | 73.7 | 54.1 | -0.67 | -0.08 | 0.43 | -0.05 | 0.51 |
| 22 | Daniel Jones | 472 | 71.6 | 41.8 | -0.17 | -0.29 | -0.63 | -0.36 | 0.34 |
| 23 | Jacoby Brissett | 278 | 76.0 | 48.9 | -2.18 | 0.15 | -0.02 | -0.37 | 0.16 |
| 24 | Taylor Heinicke | 527 | 62.2 | 46.6 | 0.41 | -1.21 | -0.21 | -0.59 | 0.99 |
| 25 | Baker Mayfield | 428 | 67.7 | 39.1 | -0.62 | -0.67 | -0.86 | -0.72 | 0.19 |
| 26 | Ben Roethlisberger | 531 | 60.8 | 43.4 | 0.45 | -1.34 | -0.49 | -0.73 | 0.85 |
| 27 | Trevor Lawrence | 588 | 57.1 | 32.0 | 1.04 | -1.71 | -1.47 | -1.09 | 0.24 |
| 28 | Jared Goff | 525 | 59.6 | 31.6 | 0.38 | -1.46 | -1.50 | -1.10 | 0.04 |
| 29 | Sam Darnold | 381 | 62.6 | 35.4 | -1.11 | -1.17 | -1.18 | -1.16 | 0.01 |
| 30 | Justin Fields | 347 | 61.5 | 27.3 | -1.46 | -1.27 | -1.87 | -1.49 | 0.60 |
| 31 | Davis Mills | 325 | 55.6 | 29.2 | -1.69 | -1.85 | -1.71 | -1.78 | 0.14 |
| 32 | Zach Wilson | 342 | 57.1 | 24.0 | -1.51 | -1.71 | -2.16 | -1.80 | 0.45 |
Not much has changed since last week, though Stafford breaks into the top five and Dak Prescott coughs up three spots.
This year’s rookie class continues to be spectacularly bad. With nearly a full season under their belts, how would you rate the career prospects of these noobies going forward? At what point do our priors have to be shoved aside to account for what we’ve actually seen from them on the professional field? I’d love to hear your thoughts!