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The Saints Had The Worst Fumble Luck In 2017

There were 644 fumbles during the 2017 season, with 276 being recovered by the opposing team. That’s a 43% fumble recovery rate for the defense, and a 57% fumble recovery rate for the offense; in other words, exactly 3 out of every 7 fumbles were recovered by the opposing team, and 4 out of every 7 fumbles were recovered by the fumbling team.

The Baltimore Ravens fumbled 19 teams, but only lost 4 of those fumbles. So the Ravens offense recovered 79% of those fumbles, when we would have “expected” them to recover 10.9 of those fumbles. Therefore, Baltimore recovered 4.1 more fumbles than we would have expected. On defense, Baltimore’s opponents had 22 fumbles, and Baltimore recovered 12 of those 22 fumbles. So the Ravens defense recovered 55% of all fumbles by opponents, when we would have “expected” them to recover 9.4 of those fumbles; therefore, Baltimore’s defense recovered 2.6 more fumbles than expected. Add it up, and there were 41 times that the football hit the ground during Ravens games, and Baltimore recovered 27 of them, which was 6.7 more than expected.

On the other side of things we have the New Orleans Saints. Despite being one of the best teams in the NFL last season, New Orleans had really bad fumble luck (perhaps that’s why they “only” went 11-5 despite being the most efficient team in the league). On offense, the Saints had 19 fumbles but only recovered 9 of them; that’s 1.9 fewer fumbles recovered than expected. And on defense, New Orleans forced 20 fumbles but only recovered 5 of them, which was 3.6 fumbles below average! Together, the Saints recovered just 14 of 39 fumbles in all games, which was 5.4 fewer fumble recoveries than expected.

There is a lot of randomness in fumble recovery rates, so you’d expect New Orleans and Baltimore to both regress towards the mean in 2018. The table below shows this data for all 32 teams. Here’s how to read the Bears line. Chicago had 24 fumbles on offense, and lost 10 of them. Therefore, Chicago had a 58% fumble recovery rate on offense, recovering 0.3 more fumbles than expected. On defense, the Bears forced 19 fumbles, and opponents lost 14 of them. So Chicago’s defense had a 74% fumble recovery rate, picking up 5.9 more fumbles than expected. In total, Chicago recovered 65% of all fumbles in Bears games, and recovered 6.1 more fumbles than expected.

RkTeamOff FumOff FumLOff FR%FRAE (Off)Opp FumOpp FumLDef FR%FRAE (Def)Tot FR%FRAE (Total)
1Baltimore Ravens19479%4.1221255%2.666%6.7
2Chicago Bears241058%0.3191474%5.965%6.1
3Carolina Panthers19668%2.1191158%2.963%5.0
4Kansas City Chiefs14379%3.0191053%1.964%4.9
5Seattle Seahawks18572%2.7221150%1.660%4.3
6Philadelphia Eagles251156%-0.3191263%3.959%3.6
7Los Angeles Chargers17476%3.321943%0.058%3.3
8Detroit Lions211148%-2.0201365%4.456%2.4
9Jacksonville Jaguars241058%0.3251248%1.353%1.6
10Green Bay Packers14750%-1.0201155%2.453%1.4
11Atlanta Falcons17665%1.319842%-0.153%1.1
12Denver Broncos261254%-0.913754%1.454%0.6
13Oakland Raiders331458%0.120945%0.453%0.6
14Tampa Bay Buccaneers271352%-1.4261350%1.951%0.4
15Indianapolis Colts20670%2.623730%-2.949%-0.3
16New York Jets251252%-1.319947%0.950%-0.4
17New England Patriots13469%1.619632%-2.147%-0.6
18Pittsburgh Steelers15567%1.419632%-2.147%-0.7
19New York Giants20860%0.618633%-1.747%-1.1
20Miami Dolphins23865%1.921629%-3.048%-1.1
21Houston Texans251156%-0.314536%-1.049%-1.3
22Los Angeles Rams291452%-1.6231043%0.148%-1.4
23Arizona Cardinals19763%1.120630%-2.646%-1.4
24Cincinnati Bengals221150%-1.67343%0.048%-1.6
25Buffalo Bills17665%1.325728%-3.743%-2.4
26San Francisco 49ers14843%-2.0251040%-0.741%-2.7
27Minnesota Vikings11645%-1.316531%-1.937%-3.1
28Washington Redskins281450%-2.021733%-2.043%-4.0
29Dallas Cowboys11918%-4.3261142%-0.135%-4.4
30Tennessee Titans10820%-3.723939%-0.933%-4.6
31Cleveland Browns251348%-2.321629%-3.039%-5.3
32New Orleans Saints191047%-1.920525%-3.636%-5.4
Total64427657%64427643%50%
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