Kliff Kingsbury, flirting with the apple of his eye
This is an obvious situation to go for it, particularly when you are a 13-point underdog. Only contortionists can concoct 4th-and-1 situations where going for it is a bad idea, and nobody can sustain that argument from the opponent’s 4-yard line in the first quarter. And yet, Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury sent out Zane Gonzalez to kick a short field goal, cutting the lead to 7-3.
After the next Baltimore drive resulted in a field goal, Arizona again drove down the field. The Cardinals reached 3rd-and-goal from the 3-yard line, when Murray threw an incomplete pass. That set up 4th-and-goal from the 3, trailing 10-3 midway through the 2nd quarter. This was another obvious go-for-it situation, but once again, Kingsbury sent Gonzalez out to get three points. Over the last 10 years, NFL offenses have scored touchdowns on about 41% of 3rd (or 4th) and goal plays from the 3-yard line. And as we’ll see in a minute, a 41% success rate is far above the necessary rate to make going for it the correct decision.
On Arizona’s first drive of the second half, trailing 17-6, Arizona once again drove inside Baltimore’s 10-yard line. On 2nd-and-goal from the 5, Murray threw to Larry Fitzgerald. Incomplete. On 3rd-and-goal from the 5, Murray again failed to connect with Fitzgerald. Facing 4th-and-goal from the 5, the Cardinals again sent out Gonzalez for a third chip shot. The Ravens defense was then called for a delay of game, moving Arizona up to the 2-yard line. From there, Kingsbury — trailing by 11 in the 2nd half — kept Gonzalez on the field! In perhaps the most indefensible move of the day, Kingsbury chose to kick a field goal. Over the last 5 years, teams have converted half of these 3rd (or 4th) and goal plays from the 2 into touchdowns. [continue reading…]