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Hilton was #1 last year

Yesterday, I wrote a bit about Bills WR Robert Foster, who had a remarkable season for any rookie, let alone an undrafted free agent. While Foster’s traditional stats were solid — 544 receiving yards, with 511 of them coming in the final 7 games — his rate statistics were out of this world. I am always skeptical of using yards per target as a metric of value because targets are an inherently good thing. That said, it can be fun to look at metrics that don’t always measure pure value, and let’s do that today.

In 2018, Foster averaged 12.30 yards per target, thanks to those 541 yards coming on just 44 targets. Last season, all players in the NFL averaged 7.59 yards per target, which means Foster was well above-average. But his performance is even better when you remember that he was on the Bills, playing with below-average passers. Buffalo players averaged just 6.42 yards per target last season, well below the league average.

But wait: that number is juiced because, well, of Foster. Bills players other than Foster averaged just 5.83 yards per target. Therefore, we could say that Foster averaged 6.47 more yards per target than all other Buffalo players.

Of course, some of that value is mitigated by him having just 44 targets, but if we multiply 44 by 6.47, we could say that Foster added 285 yards of value on targets over the average Bills receiver. But we need some context for what that means, so let’s look at T.Y. Hilton.

The Colts star had 1,270 receiving yards on just 120 targets, which means he averaged an impressive 10.58 yards per target. All other Colts players averaged just 6.47 yards per target last year, which of course is pretty awful (sidenote: Indianapolis had a pretty awful set of weapons outside of Hilton). This means Hilton averaged 4.11 more yards/target than his Colts teammates, and produced 494 yards of value over the average Indianapolis receiver.

Hilton wasn’t chosen at random. By this measure — which I have used before — Hilton produced the most value in the NFL last year relative to his teammates. The table below shows the top 50 players by this metric. Let’s use Tyler Lockett, who ranked 2nd by this metric as an example. Last year, Lockett had 965 receiving yards on just 70 targets, a whopping 13.79 yards/target average. His Seahawks teammates averaged 7.52 yards per target, meaning Lockett was 6.26 Y/T ahead of his teammates. Multiply that difference by his 70 targets, and Lockett produced 438 yards of value over his teammates.

RkPlayerTeamRec YdTarYd/TarTeammate Y/TDiffValue
1T.Y. HiltonIND127012010.586.474.11494
2Tyler LockettSEA9657013.797.526.26438
3Mike EvansTAM152413811.047.973.07424
4Julio JonesATL16771709.867.542.33395
5Tyler BoydCIN10281089.526.043.48376
6Adam ThielenMIN13731538.976.662.31354
7George KittleSFO137713610.137.592.53344
8Kenny GolladayDET10631198.936.312.63313
9Tyreek HillKAN147913710.88.542.25309
10DeAndre HopkinsHOU15721639.647.831.81295
11Michael ThomasNOR14051479.567.611.95287
12Robert FosterBUF5414412.35.836.47285
13Brandin CooksLAR120411710.298.242.05240
14Mark AndrewsBAL5525011.046.454.59229
15Emmanuel SandersDEN868988.866.582.27223
16Josh GordonNWE7206810.597.553.04207
17JuJu Smith-SchusterPIT14261668.597.351.24206
18D.J. MooreCAR788829.617.112.5205
19Christian KirkARI590688.685.663.01205
20A.J. GreenCIN694779.016.362.65204
21Rashard HigginsCLE5725310.797.323.47184
22Amari CooperDAL725769.547.172.37180
23Alshon JefferyPHI843929.167.361.8166
24O.J. HowardTAM5654811.778.393.38162
25Davante AdamsGNB13861698.27.270.93157
26Breshad PerrimanCLE3402513.67.376.23156
27Jared CookOAK8961018.877.371.5152
28DeSean JacksonTAM7747410.468.412.05152
29Robby AndersonNYJ7529486.481.52142
30Chris HerndonNYJ502568.966.492.47138
31Courtland SuttonDEN704848.386.731.65138
32Will FullerHOU5034511.188.163.02136
33Albert WilsonMIA3913511.177.33.88136
34Vernon DavisWAS3673610.196.453.75135
35Jesse JamesPIT4233910.857.463.39132
36Rob GronkowskiNWE682729.477.691.78128
37Odell BeckhamNYG10521248.487.451.03128
38Robert WoodsLAR12191309.388.460.92119
39Mike WilliamsLAC6646610.068.31.76116
40Tyrell WilliamsLAC6536510.058.311.74113
41Chris HoganNWE532559.677.731.94107
42Dante PettisSFO4674510.388.062.32104
43Donte MoncriefJAX668897.516.351.15103
44Levine ToiloloDET2632410.966.684.28103
45Cooper KuppLAR5665510.298.51.7999
46Evan EngramNYG577649.027.511.5197
47Marvin JonesDET508628.196.71.4993
48Jordan MatthewsPHI3002810.717.493.2290
49Terrelle PryorNYJ2352210.686.594.0990
50Geronimo AllisonGNB3033010.17.392.7181

So what value is this data? Some of it is purely trivia and/or fun for fun’s sake. Yards per target is not a good metric by which to analyze the value of a player.  Terrelle Pryor averaged 10.7 yards per target last year on a bad Jets passing offense, but he was cut midway through the season. Levine Toilolo is a journeyman tight end, so him averaging 4.28 more yards/target than his teammates was probably a one-year outlier. Jordan Matthews set a career high in yards/target, but did so while setting a career low in yards/game; his career is trending in the wrong direction.

On the other hand, this may tell us something about Foster in Buffalo or rookie Mark Andrews in Baltimore. In Dallas, Amari Cooper really stood out relative to his teammates. Nobody knows what will happen to Josh Gordon, but he looks great by this measure, too.

What stands out to you?

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