The Chiefs are the current 1 seed in the AFC, but the Los Angeles Chargers are hot on their heels: both teams have an 11-3 record, while every other team in the AFC has at least four losses. Kansas City has outscored opponents by 119 points, the best in the AFC; the Chargers have the second best points differential in the conference, however, at +97.
How rare is it for one division to have the top two teams in a conference by points differential? It hasn’t happened in the NFL since 2012 and 2013, when the Seahawks and 49ers were the class of the NFC. In 2012, Seattle had a conference-best +167 points differential and an 11-5 record, while the 49ers went 11-4-1 with a +124 points differential and made the Super Bowl. The next year, the Seahawks went 13-3 with a +186 points differential; Seattle earned the 1 seed and won the Super Bowl, while San Francisco went 12-4 with a +134 points differential and blew a fourth quarter lead in the NFC Championship Game.
In 2007, the Giants won the Super Bowl but were not a great team; in ’08, New York was much better, beginning the season 11-1 before the Plaxico Burress incident. The Giants finished 12-4 with a NFC-best +133 points differential. But the Eagles went 9-6-1 with a +127 points differential and snuck into the playoffs, before knocking off the Giants in the second round.
Those are the only three times since realignment in 2002 that the two best teams — by points differential — in one conference resided in the same division. The last time it happened in the AFC was in 1997 and also involved the Chiefs. That year, the Broncos had a +185 points differential, the best mark in the league. But the Chiefs had the second-best points differential at +143, and stole the AFC West from a fading Denver team. The Broncos started 11-2, but lost road games as underdogs to the Steelers and 49ers, and finished 12-4. Kansas City ended the season on a 6-game winning streak, and finished 13-3; no other AFC team had more than 11 wins.
In this case, the Chiefs are more like the ’97 Broncos, with the ’18 Chargers playing the role of ’97 Chiefs. In the playoffs, Denver blew out the Jaguars in the first round in a rematch of the ’96 disaster, and then went to Arrowhead for the second round. In that game, the Broncos edged out the Chiefs 14-10, en route to the franchise’s first Super Bowl victory.
The table below shows all instances since 1970 where two teams in the same division finished with a points differential in excess of 100 points. I would expect the 2018 AFC West will join this list:
| Division | Team | Points Diff | Record | Playoff G | Playoff W | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 AFC North | CIN | 140 | 12-4 | 1 | 0 | No |
| 2015 AFC North | PIT | 104 | 10-6 | 2 | 1 | No |
| 2015 NFC West | ARI | 176 | 13-3 | 2 | 1 | No |
| 2015 NFC West | SEA | 146 | 10-6 | 2 | 1 | No |
| 2013 AFC West | DEN | 207 | 13-3 | 3 | 2 | No |
| 2013 AFC West | KAN | 125 | 11-5 | 1 | 0 | No |
| 2013 NFC South | CAR | 125 | 12-4 | 1 | 0 | No |
| 2013 NFC South | NOR | 110 | 11-5 | 2 | 1 | No |
| 2013 NFC West | SEA | 186 | 13-3 | 3 | 3 | Yes |
| 2013 NFC West | SFO | 134 | 12-4 | 3 | 2 | No |
| 2012 NFC West | SEA | 167 | 11-5 | 2 | 1 | No |
| 2012 NFC West | SFO | 124 | 11-4-1 | 3 | 2 | No |
| 2009 AFC East | NWE | 142 | 10-6 | 1 | 0 | No |
| 2009 AFC East | NYJ | 112 | 9-7 | 3 | 2 | No |
| 2009 NFC North | GNB | 164 | 11-5 | 1 | 0 | No |
| 2009 NFC North | MIN | 158 | 12-4 | 2 | 1 | No |
| 2008 AFC North | BAL | 141 | 11-5 | 3 | 2 | No |
| 2008 AFC North | PIT | 124 | 12-4 | 3 | 3 | Yes |
| 2008 NFC East | NYG | 133 | 12-4 | 1 | 0 | No |
| 2008 NFC East | PHI | 127 | 9-6-1 | 3 | 2 | No |
| 2007 AFC South | IND | 188 | 13-3 | 1 | 0 | No |
| 2007 AFC South | JAX | 107 | 11-5 | 2 | 1 | No |
| 2005 AFC West | DEN | 137 | 13-3 | 2 | 1 | No |
| 2005 AFC West | SDG | 106 | 9-7 | 0 | 0 | No |
| 2004 AFC East | NWE | 177 | 14-2 | 3 | 3 | Yes |
| 2004 AFC East | BUF | 111 | 9-7 | 0 | 0 | No |
| 2003 AFC South | TEN | 111 | 12-4 | 2 | 1 | No |
| 2003 AFC South | IND | 111 | 12-4 | 3 | 2 | No |
| 2001 NFC Central | CHI | 135 | 13-3 | 1 | 0 | No |
| 2001 NFC Central | GNB | 124 | 12-4 | 2 | 1 | No |
| 2001 NFC West | STL | 230 | 14-2 | 3 | 2 | No |
| 2001 NFC West | SFO | 127 | 12-4 | 1 | 0 | No |
| 2000 AFC Central | BAL | 168 | 12-4 | 4 | 4 | Yes |
| 2000 AFC Central | TEN | 155 | 13-3 | 1 | 0 | No |
| 2000 AFC West | OAK | 180 | 12-4 | 2 | 1 | No |
| 2000 AFC West | DEN | 116 | 11-5 | 1 | 0 | No |
| 1998 NFC West | ATL | 153 | 14-2 | 3 | 2 | No |
| 1998 NFC West | SFO | 151 | 12-4 | 2 | 1 | No |
| 1997 AFC West | DEN | 185 | 12-4 | 4 | 4 | Yes |
| 1997 AFC West | KAN | 143 | 13-3 | 1 | 0 | No |
| 1996 NFC West | CAR | 149 | 12-4 | 2 | 1 | No |
| 1996 NFC West | SFO | 141 | 12-4 | 2 | 1 | No |
| 1992 NFC East | DAL | 166 | 13-3 | 3 | 3 | Yes |
| 1992 NFC East | PHI | 109 | 11-5 | 2 | 1 | No |
| 1992 NFC West | SFO | 195 | 14-2 | 2 | 1 | No |
| 1992 NFC West | NOR | 128 | 12-4 | 1 | 0 | No |
| 1991 NFC West | SFO | 154 | 10-6 | 0 | 0 | No |
| 1991 NFC West | NOR | 130 | 11-5 | 1 | 0 | No |
| 1987 NFC West | SFO | 206 | 13-2 | 1 | 0 | No |
| 1987 NFC West | NOR | 139 | 12-3 | 1 | 0 | No |
| 1986 NFC Central | CHI | 165 | 14-2 | 1 | 0 | No |
| 1986 NFC Central | MIN | 125 | 9-7 | 0 | 0 | No |
| 1985 AFC East | NYJ | 129 | 11-5 | 1 | 0 | No |
| 1985 AFC East | MIA | 108 | 12-4 | 2 | 1 | No |
| 1984 AFC West | SEA | 136 | 12-4 | 2 | 1 | No |
| 1984 AFC West | DEN | 112 | 13-3 | 1 | 0 | No |
| 1983 NFC East | WAS | 209 | 14-2 | 3 | 2 | No |
| 1983 NFC East | DAL | 119 | 12-4 | 1 | 0 | No |
| 1980 NFC East | PHI | 162 | 12-4 | 3 | 2 | No |
| 1980 NFC East | DAL | 143 | 12-4 | 3 | 2 | No |
| 1980 NFC West | RAM | 135 | 11-5 | 1 | 0 | No |
| 1980 NFC West | ATL | 133 | 12-4 | 1 | 0 | No |
| 1977 AFC West | DEN | 126 | 12-2 | 3 | 2 | No |
| 1977 AFC West | OAK | 121 | 11-3 | 2 | 1 | No |
| 1976 AFC Central | PIT | 204 | 10-4 | 2 | 1 | No |
| 1976 AFC Central | CIN | 125 | 10-4 | 0 | 0 | No |
| 1976 AFC East | BAL | 171 | 11-3 | 1 | 0 | No |
| 1976 AFC East | NWE | 140 | 11-3 | 1 | 0 | No |
| 1976 AFC West | OAK | 113 | 13-1 | 3 | 3 | Yes |
| 1976 AFC West | DEN | 109 | 9-5 | 0 | 0 | No |
| 1975 AFC East | MIA | 135 | 10-4 | 0 | 0 | No |
| 1975 AFC East | BAL | 126 | 10-4 | 1 | 0 | No |
| 1973 NFC East | DAL | 179 | 10-4 | 2 | 1 | No |
| 1973 NFC East | WAS | 127 | 10-4 | 1 | 0 | No |
| 1971 AFC East | BAL | 173 | 10-4 | 2 | 1 | No |
| 1971 AFC East | MIA | 141 | 10-3-1 | 3 | 2 | No |
| 1970 NFC Central | MIN | 192 | 12-2 | 1 | 0 | No |
| 1970 NFC Central | DET | 145 | 10-4 | 1 | 0 | No |
And while two teams can both be very good, only one can represent the conference in a Super Bowl. The 2008 AFC North is a good example of how important home field advantage can be. That season, the Ravens and Titans led the conference in points differential at +141, with Pittsburgh 3rd at +124. But Pittsburgh finished 12-4, while Baltimore was 11-5. The Ravens easily beat Miami in the wild card round, and then traveled to 13-3 Tennessee in the second round of the playoffs and won in a fantastic game. But Baltimore was beaten up in that game, and then had to travel to Pittsburgh for the AFC Championship Game because the Ravens were swept by the Steelers in two heartbreakers in the regular season. Pittsburgh got a big advantage by having a week off after the season and home field in the AFC Championship Game, and used those advantages to defeat the Ravens — and then the Cardinals — to hoist another Lombardi Trophy.