Adam Steele is back with his quarterback recap for week 3, 2021. Thank you, Adam, you beautiful man.
The theme of week three is the same as week two: terrible rookies. Remarkably, the eleven worst QB games this season have all been more extreme than the single best game. Anyone reading this is well aware of Justin Fields‘ spectacularly awful sack-fest performance against Cleveland. But according to DYAR, that wasn’t even the worst game this week!
Here are the week three numbers:
| # | QB Week 3 | DYAR | QBR | zDYAR | zQBR | zAvg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kirk Cousins | 171 | 93.2 | 1.45 | 1.83 | 1.64 |
| 2 | Josh Allen | 196 | 83.8 | 1.71 | 1.39 | 1.55 |
| 3 | Matthew Stafford | 162 | 89.5 | 1.36 | 1.66 | 1.51 |
| 4 | Aaron Rodgers | 149 | 78.0 | 1.23 | 1.12 | 1.18 |
| 5 | Justin Herbert | 151 | 75.7 | 1.25 | 1.02 | 1.13 |
| 6 | Kyler Murray | 124 | 67.1 | 0.97 | 0.61 | 0.79 |
| 7 | Ryan Tannehill | 55 | 81.8 | 0.27 | 1.30 | 0.78 |
| 8 | Tom Brady | 105 | 63.7 | 0.78 | 0.46 | 0.62 |
| 9 | Joe Burrow | 82 | 67.3 | 0.54 | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| 10 | Teddy Bridgewater | 92 | 61.5 | 0.65 | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| 11 | Patrick Mahomes | 70 | 64.3 | 0.42 | 0.48 | 0.45 |
| 12 | Jameis Winston | 16 | 68.5 | -0.13 | 0.68 | 0.27 |
| 13 | Derek Carr | 64 | 56.9 | 0.36 | 0.14 | 0.25 |
| 14 | Sam Darnold | 32 | 63.1 | 0.03 | 0.43 | 0.23 |
| 15 | Russell Wilson | 102 | 40.6 | 0.75 | -0.62 | 0.06 |
| 16 | Jacoby Brissett | -11 | 63.8 | -0.41 | 0.46 | 0.03 |
| 17 | Daniel Jones | 27 | 53.5 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.02 |
| 18 | Dak Prescott | 90 | 37.8 | 0.63 | -0.75 | -0.06 |
| 19 | Davis Mills | -7 | 57.7 | -0.37 | 0.18 | -0.09 |
| 20 | Matt Ryan | 17 | 50.5 | -0.12 | -0.16 | -0.14 |
| 21 | Lamar Jackson | 32 | 47.2 | 0.03 | -0.31 | -0.14 |
| 22 | Jared Goff | 50 | 42.0 | 0.22 | -0.56 | -0.17 |
| 23 | Jimmy Garoppolo | 5 | 47.6 | -0.24 | -0.29 | -0.27 |
| 24 | Baker Mayfield | 9 | 40.7 | -0.20 | -0.62 | -0.41 |
| 25 | Taylor Heinicke | -35 | 50.3 | -0.65 | -0.17 | -0.41 |
| 26 | Carson Wentz | -64 | 38.4 | -0.95 | -0.72 | -0.84 |
| 27 | Mac Jones | -131 | 50.0 | -1.63 | -0.18 | -0.91 |
| 28 | Ben Roethlisberger | -87 | 38.2 | -1.18 | -0.73 | -0.96 |
| 29 | Jalen Hurts | -45 | 8.9 | -0.76 | -2.10 | -1.43 |
| 30 | Trevor Lawrence | -146 | 18.0 | -1.79 | -1.67 | -1.73 |
| 31 | Zach Wilson | -182 | 19.5 | -2.16 | -1.60 | -1.88 |
| 32 | Justin Fields | -170 | 6.0 | -2.03 | -2.23 | -2.13 |
Much maligned for being an empty stat compiler, Kirk Cousins had a legitimately great game against Seattle. Josh Allen has been taking heat for regressing back to his mediocre 2019 self, but this week he silenced the doubters (at least for a few days). Matthew Stafford continued his new football life with a fantastic game against the mighty Buccaneers. While none of these performances were historically dominant, they do represent the three best games of the 2021 season so far.
Let’s delve into some quarterbacks who had divergent scores in my two metrics of choice. The most puzzling case is Ryan Tannehill, who has scored significantly higher in QBR all three weeks this year. He has completed a lot of downfield passes, which boosts him more in QBR since DYAR is agnostic to yards after the catch. Tannehill has continued last year’s trend of successful scrambles to move the chains, but he doesn’t run enough to inflate his QBR by that much. It seems that, for reasons I don’t understand, QBR is forgiving Tannehill for some of his interceptions and fumbles. Perhaps most of his mistakes have come under heavy pressure and the blame is shifted to his lineman? It’ll be interesting to see if this gap between his scores continues.
Russell Wilson has been the anti-Tannehill, scoring much higher in DYAR each of the last two games. QBR hates plays where the QB holds the ball forever and takes a sack, and let’s be honest, that’s one of Wilson’s signature habits. Against Minnesota, the devaluing of low leverage plays probably hurt his QBR score. As noted by Aaron Schatz in this week’s DVOA recap, Wilson went 7/7 for 93 yards in two meaningless end of half drives that had zero impact on the game’s outcome.
Right below Wilson in this week’s ranking sits Jacoby Brissett, except his rating was boosted by QBR and dragged down by DYAR. This one is easy to explain. Brissett faced constant pressure against Las Vegas behind a pitiful Miami offensive line. He rarely had a clean pocket or time to let plays develop downfield. QBR corrects for this pressure while DYAR ignores it. Secondly, all of Brissett’s longest passes came in crunch time as he led his Dolphins to miraculously force overtime. Those successful high leverage plays are a major boon to his QBR.
Sometimes the extra detail of QBR provides a more accurate rating, as was the case with Brissett. But other times the metric seemingly outsmarts itself and spits out wonky results. Dak Prescott‘s Monday Night Football performance is one of those games. Despite leading his team to five offensive touchdowns and averaging 9.3 yards per attempt, QBR rates Prescott’s game as decidedly below average. His four sacks likely damaged his QBR more than his DYAR, but the main culprit was the controversial fourth down QB sneak. That play checks all the QBR boxes for heavy weighting: high leverage situation, high baseline for expected success, and no receivers to split the credit/blame away from the QB. Prescott’s alleged failure to cross the goal line is treated with utter disgust by the QBR formula, and I’d estimate that that single play dropped his score from the mid 50’s down to the high 30’s.
In the same game, Jalen Hurts was also hated by QBR, and for some of the same reasons. Hurts averaged just 3.9 yards per carry on nine rushes and we know how much QBR despises unsuccessful QB runs. Unlike Dak, Hurts relied heavily on YAC to move the ball, with roughly 2/3 of his passing yardage coming after the catch. That’s another black eye on his QBR score.
The last QB who produced major disagreement between the metrics was Mac Jones. To be completely honest, I have no explanation for this. More specifically, I have no clue why his QBR was near average. By any reasonable measure, Jones played an awful game. His offense didn’t reach the endzone until the game was effectively over. His three interceptions looked like mostly his fault. His average completion traveled only 4.9 yards in the air. If anyone can justify Mac Jones being anything but terrible against New Orleans, please explain in the comments!